Earth System Update June '24- Sources & Timeline
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ค. 2024
- Hey folks! We just got the June earth systems update from the Copernicus Institute. I feel like it's helping me put some pieces together- maybe providing a little evidence about what's coming next.
Here's where to find that June update:
climate.copernicus.eu/climate...
Ice info here (check artic too!):
zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ic...
Play with ssts on climate reanalyzer here:
climatereanalyzer.org/clim/ss...
AR's Wet Bulb Risk Tool- first link is a short video explaining how to use the tool, please watch it first!!
• What's Your Wet Bulb R...
public.tableau.com/app/profil...
And if you want a jumping off point for temp limits and life, this paper has full text available (in a fun journal, too):
www.cambridge.org/core/journa... - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Thank you for this report. Just found your channel and appreciate this information.
@CityPrepping glad you're here- let me know if you have any questions about more localized information.
Glad you made it over. You've done some really good work and I think you'll find the information presented here helpful in guiding preparation for the future.
1,000,000 Subs in the house!!!
@@AmericanResiliency I just sent you an email. Definitely would love to chat more offline if you have the availability.
@CityPrepping awesome- looking forward to talking with you
Thank you for what you do. You bring facts without politics or drama. I'm a loyal viewer and sharer of your vids. I moved from Nashville TN to PIttsburgh PA. Hoping i made a decent move.
@imunchienandalusia thank you, making the information accessible to everyone is my goal. Big thumbs up for your move choice- great destination
♥️ thank you for this. I've had a lot on my mind recently and the lurking anxiety over not being in a good position for the next stage of climate chaos has been weighing me down. Thank you for your wisdom on this!
I deeply appreciate your work and the mental/emotional burden you are helping us all carry
@pendragon_cave1405 this has been a heavy time, I know I am feeling it, too. The friends I have made through the AR community do a lot to help me feel I can keep going.
Thank you so much for your work!
I'm not a scientist, but recently I saw a scientific study that read that, for humans, "wet-bulb temperatures" of 85°F is/can be deadly to humans. WBT - Wet bulb temperature (WBT) is a measure of the temperature read by a thermometer wrapped in a wet cloth. It shows the extent to which the body can be cooled by evaporation from sweating. Unlike the dry bulb temperature, which measures the ambient outdoor air temperature, WBT takes into account the humidity and evaporation of sweat from the human body. I agree life has an amount of reserve and adaptability, problem is, to change requires a large amount of time. Conditions are changing much faster than nature can adapt.
@ph5915 there are totally studies showing wet bulb impacts beginning to hurt humans at pretty low temps. But we also see humans continuing to survive in places like India that regularly see long stretches of temperatures over these low-range wet bulb temps.
Like I say in the video, we are in an extinction event. These conditions are changing too fast for many lifeforms, they threaten many lifeforms. This is why I am passionate about conservation, focused in lower-change areas. Conservation for coral reefs is a kindness, but they are not looking at a good future. Conservation for prairie, prairie has the potential to grow in these conditions, and prairie sinks carbon faster than forest.
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you for replying! Yes, I completely agree. After I saw this video, I watched another one of yours that was mostly about WBT... It's keen to me, I don't handle heat well, never have, even growing up as a kid ages 4-11 in South FL, and a year on Guam at 12, no good. I'm not terribly obese, I exercise, I don't have any particular medical reason why...It's weird, if I'm exercising (mostly walking in a treadmill, with a huge fan behind me), I expect to sweat. But walking across a parking lot to a grocery store? C'mon! LOL. I saw your video about Minnesota, and thought "Hmm". But I don't really care for frigid winters either (I'm almost 61)...Enjoying your channel! Thank you.
Very interesting, and sobering to think about. Thanks for all your great work!
@AgroecologicalSystems always welcome- wishing you all the best
I'm glad to know we have a little more time. I was talking to my cousin a few days ago and told her, this summer is a taste of things to come. It's a 1.5 summer, and even if we cool off a little next year with La Nina, it won't be long until it goes back up. So whatever problems you're having now, time to get them sorted out because they're not going away. She's in San Diego so she has some rough times ahead.
I'm not gonna lie, really not enjoying the the 1.5 in South Carolina. It started getting hot in April and even though its been drier here in Charleston it still feels awful. We also got a freak hail storm which apparently is stronger than anything anyone who's a native here has ever seen, at least according to my older neighbors. Some people near me lost all their vegetables out of their garden too. Just shredded. I did not put in an annual garden this year, so while my fruit trees and other perennials are also shredded, they're powering through.
Feeling these storms at 1.5 is intense. Hail is such a serious emerging issue, I'm putting in a mesh layer to provide shade & hopefully offer some hail protection.... what can we do but try, right?
I'm in a projected part of Iowa that is projected to be lower change. This weekend I visited family in Chicago- which is a city with a decent outlook, but the extreme storms are projected to be more intense than where I live. The storm that hit on Sunday afternoon reminded me of the tropical rains I experienced in New Orleans in August- very intense. The people I was with looked at their phones. They told me the storm had not been forecast, and that this is becoming common.
@@AmericanResiliency yeah you know last year I heard, the summer of 2024 is going to be one to remember, way more intense than 2023. I guess we're all finding out what that means and it's only July.
San Diego is not as hot as you think, at least not close to the coast. We have had a semi permanent marine layer since early Last summer. I haven’t looked into it but I imagine the warmer water currents have something to do with it. Don’t get me wrong this time of year when the clouds do clear (or if ur 5or 10 miles inland) that sun is Phoenix hot! Also don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the cool……while it lasts
@rayoakley6669 I'm starting work on the California video later this week- I'm pretty sure I'm going to do it as 2, north and south. I expect a lot of variation across the state and I know we're gonna need a lot of detail- we have so many AR people all over CA.
Kiss our retirement goodbye!
@TheDoomWizard hah you were planning on one?!
@@AmericanResiliency I am approaching retirement. I’m hoping for a little time before things like turbulence, drought, migration etc. make travel difficult
Even though certain places become unpleasant to live in with climate change, they aren’t unpleasant for the whole year. I still plan to spend part of the year in Arizona, but maybe I would plan on 2-3 months instead of 4-6 months
I have thought I would sell my house and buy one in a place where I would spend part of the year in the future. I just have been changing my mind about which part.
When will you be doing a report on Michigan? I grew up here, retired to Florida but came back 3 years ago. I've been following climate change for about 8 years now. I'm 70 now but in good health. My 96 year old mother lives with me and she still does pretty good. I want to set things up for the grand kids. Most of whom are here. Thanks for the reports. They are so helpful and informative. I really like that you don't sugar coat anything. We all need the truth if we are going to prepare accordingly.
@MicheleTuer Michigan is up! This video is from before I moved towards 2C language- I talk 2050, but in the federal reports, 2050 is when we expected to hit 2C. We were on track before the 23-24 bump, but now...
Anyway, when you watch this and I say 2050, think 2C.
th-cam.com/video/IvgC9uc3F-Q/w-d-xo.html
There are big changes projected for Michigan's winters- sad to see. But it's important to keep in mind, the projected conditions are very life-supporting. Many people and living things will want to be in Michigan.
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you
Can someone help me out? I think I missed something - did temps go down somewhere?
@jessieadore shortest possible answer- global temps were at a high of about 1.7C around Feb 24, we're now at 1.5C.
Thank you my love
Interesting that we see anomalous cooling in Spain/UK and greater heat in the tropics. Sign that the AMOC is weakening?
@pinecone1204 I think so
Hi Emily,
Maryam(PNW). Thank you for continuing to provide us with this information that is so needed. How does the science community look at the effect of climate change on el nino and la nina cycles? If areas such as Minneapolis ad Pennsylvania appear to be stable today, could that change to instability in the next 2-3 years?
@smithsmith9510 if we look way across time change tends to be lower in the center of continents, and we haven't seen big changes in the different NCA versions for the middle of the country. So I feel fairly confident that the "center will hold" here- more confident for Minneapolis than for Pittsburg, but still pretty confident for Pittsburg.
Thinking of you all in the PNW, with the heat and the drought, and hope conditions ease soon.
out of curiosity, how useful would you say RCP4.5 still is? are any other pathways better?
@dice_spice allow me to be as honest and clear as I can- I don't think we have an evident pathway anymore. There are too many classes of modeling inconsistency showing up this year if you follow the literature.
Observational evidence is important, and the World Meteorological Organization is doing careful near-term outlook work. I'd follow them, I reviewed their report this year- link in case you're interested, access report in link video description. th-cam.com/video/380SPivnB3M/w-d-xo.html
Thank you for sharing. It is comforting to remember archaea and bacteria can survive through much more extreme conditions. I'm devastated by the current and future loss of biodiversity, but maybe hundreds of millions of years from now, there will be another explosion of species.
@elizabethstrong544 it is devastating. In previous extinction events we have some evidence of biodiversity reservoirs in deep soil ecosystems. The growing awareness around soil importance, soil restoration, and prairie restoration doesn't just matter for today, but for the deep bank of life.
Well in the mountains of WV 85-100 all week , little rain expected but we can hope the hurricane moves a little east we need the rain
@charlesvt2010 the drought in the greater southeast is growing so fast- hoping you all get some relief soon
Problem with the audio.
Hmm. Sounds fine to me.
@@MichaelGilboaAudio is mono and only coming out one channel and fairly low on my TV.
ugh I must have forgotten to toggle it from mono.
Oregon doesn’t look good. Do you think Washington is significantly better or would you cut losses and go to somewhere like South Dakota?
@knq1 Unless you love it there so much you can't stand leaving I would move. Better to get to a place with less stressed capacity, is my thinking. If you are moving the biggest, most stable high-capacity destination area is in the northern Midwest- I give info on this at the end of this video.
@@AmericanResiliency I do love Oregon. I’ve been in the valley most of my life. The remaining pockets of old growth in the state are awe inspiring. Douglas firs, western red cedars, Alaskan yellow cedars. Douglas firs over 7 ft in diameter and hundreds of feet tall. I tried going to a small stand of ancient forest recently with trees over 500 years old, only to find it had entirely burned down. It makes me sick to think how much will be lost. The forests of the west coast are in my soul. But I have a young family to take care of and so I’m weighing my options. I think the single best thing I can do is try to set them up in a place where food will grow and they may have a future.
I watched your channel a year or so ago but I compartmentalized it. It’s just so viscerally devastating to think about our forests in the pnw. But given our present circumstances it’s time to face it squarely.
Do you know of any communities that are aware of what’s coming in the prairies pothole region?
@@knq1 it's terrible, and the increasingly difficult projections for that beautiful region have been painful to process for me, too. There is increasingly good climate awareness in the prairie pothole region. In Iowa, I would recommend Iowa City as climate aware- there are many excellent rural areas within an hour of Iowa City, rural areas are increasingly climate aware. Decorah, Iowa, is a beautiful smaller community that is climate aware. Minnesota as a state has a highly active stance on climate, and the state's science communication is excellent. If you like a larger city, Minneapolis is on the ball, and I would feel confident being anywhere in about an hour's orbit of that greater metro area.
Woohoo! Time to get weird.
I'm glad to see a little evidence that there is still time for weirdness remaining
The fact is 1.5 is an average its much higher in many places
well yeah it's an average. & that is basically what an average means, mathematically.