America 2050- Overview & Emerging Bioregions
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2022
- This is a condensed and clearer presentation of the information from the livestream on 9/8/22. This synthesis of data from the 50 States Project attempts for a big picture view of how the land within the borders of our country will change by 2050 under RCP 4.5 modeling.
Data synthesis was done using information from the 4th National Climate Assessment. For specific information about your state, please search for "2050 Climate Forecast for (your state's name)". All 50 states are up, and you can check out detailed resources and references in the description of each state level video.
Short video on my qualifications & motivations:
• About Me: Qualificatio... - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
8:40 Mega Florida... A scary concept 😅
I look forward to future news stories about Mega Florida Man.
I absolutely love your practical and no nonsense information and your sense of humor. My family is split between the left and right (and similar on whether climate change is a thing or not) but we all agree that you're not out to scare monger or manipulate people and are looking out for the everyday American. Thank you!!
@Pendragon_Cave, I love to hear this. You know, I live out in the country, so I have plenty of friends and neighbors who are more right-leaning. I think it's important to get everyone access to what the science says, because their tax dollars paid for these reports. But I have no interest in fighting, I'd rather see what we can build together. There's too much resilience work we can all come together on.
I tend to be a contrarian, and my instinct is always to run in the opposite direction from everyone else.
I think about when even the most clueless American finally realizes that the fit is hitting the shan, and I try to imagine everyone in the deep South and the Southwest all moving to Minnesota at the same time. It doesn't sound like a place I'd want to be, even with a more liveable climate.
I also think so much about cultural fit. I grew up in North Florida and have lived in North East Georgia for the last 24 years. I've lived in enough different places to know that, for better and for worse, I am truly a Southerner.
I've lived in the upper Midwest, and it was beautiful and pleasant. But the lack of diversity, the absence of grit and filth an spookiness, the difference in humor and approach to the world, and the lack of an "edge" to things made me so homesick, and made life kind of bland.
No disrespect at all to the fine folks in the north. They are wonderful people, and way more sensible in some ways than we are down here. But there's a reason why the Deep South has given America so much of its culture. I mean, would you rather read "Wise Blood" by Flannery O'Connor, or another essay showcasing Garrison Keillor's musings about a loveable church organist? Would you rather eat gumbo, or a potato? Would you rather listen to Otis Redding or Lawrence Welk?
I'm not trying to start a fight. Every region has things that make it unique and interesting, for sure. I've been thinking about climate change and where to get since the early '90s. I've about decided that it makes no sense to save my life if that life doesn't suit me, or to try to force a home that just never will be one.
So I've decided to be as resilient as possible here in Athens, Georgia. There will maybe be fewer people around, but the ones that remain will be the kind of people I understand, and who understand me. And "speaking the local language" is as important a skill as "not boiling to death in a wet-bulb event."
What do you think about this? Is it a bad idea? This is my home, and I know it backwards and forwards. That's got to count for something, right?
Thanks for all you do. It matters.
I am so impressed with your videos, thank you so much for distributing this very practical and realistic information for us laymen!
Thank you! I really appreciate your kind words, help me feel like I'm on the right track
I've made this assessment a year ago and transferred from California to Washington.
Good move. I'm sure you know, Washington doesn't just have a favorable outlook, they're also really putting their shoulder to the wheel to get ready.
Nice and sincere explanation of the future with the material you provided. It's not going to be total chaos but people need to be rational in how they go forward.
I mean how we go forward lol
Thanks! I think that's a good way to sum it up, really. We have a lot of opportunities here to get our hands around this future, make the best of circumstances. We're very fortunate to be in North America
Fantastic breakdown! Thanks for posting.
Thank you!
You mention several times to stay away from the ocean. Do you have a video on how areas near the ocean will be impacted? I am curious about it.
In the state-level videos, I show sea level rise for specific coastal areas, and try to talk about areas with extra high risk for saltwater incursion (with damage to the groundwater and soil). But I think this concept you bring up is a good idea for a year 2 video- because all the coastal areas have a lot of common concerns, and useful common strategies for response.
Any thoughts on the CA Central Valley and the CA Wine regions -- coast and foot hills? (There is a LOT of agriculture there) -- Thanks..
Unfortunately, the outlook is very challenging there. Not only from the drought, there is a larger than average heatup expected throughout the central valley and up into wine country. The Sierras are not likely to hold the cold as well as some of the other western ranges, too. I have family in California and we lived there for some time. My concern for the central valley in particular is extreme.
The impacts on the national agricultural scene and many important ag exports- I do think that has the potential to be very serious. That's one of the reasons I think it is so important to get ready now and spread the word about our most likely future, because the needed changes to American agriculture will take some time! And these are important opportunities for forward-looking producers.
What an interesting find! I have a strong interest on geography and future trends. So sad these don't get much views. I came down to three options for places to move to in the future; Duluth, Minnesota; Marquette, Michigan; and Bangor, Maine. Nice to see these places will fare well in this coming climatic shift.
Duluth is a really great pick! The others are also cool, but I think they each have a more pronounced risk (wildfire for MI, giant hail for ME).
Glad you liked the content- I've been working on this channel for a little more than a year. As a small creator, it's been cool to see it grow! Hopefully in another year, we'll be reaching an even broader audience and getting more people info they can use to make informed decisions.
I'm.not American and same I'm really interested on that stuff
Just a thought... You might want to add some information on your education and background in the "about" area of the channel.
That's a really good suggestion- I will do that tomorrow.
Just in case anyone reading wants to know, I'm a science education specialist, with a doctorate from Arizona State University, postdoctoral work at University of Iowa, and then further research with nonprofits. My publication history is up on Google scholar- no other Emily Schoerning like me, so I'm easy to verify.
Thank you!
Glad to help!
You might want to check with an agronomist on some of these assumptions. While the north central plains states might well become much better for agriculture, the amount of sunlight they get and how their growing seasons work doesn't match the sunlight south of them. You can't really move crops from California's central valley to South Dakota and get the same production. This is based on latitudes and independent of climate change.
Other than that this was an excellent video.
This is a good point and I should at the very least be more clear. I see South Dakota as being able to pick up a lot of legume and cereal production- they're already heading in this direction- and that central Iowa to coastal Ohio, you probably have a band there that might be more productive and competitive for table crop production. I will be revising this video after I complete the NCA5 series, so I definitely appreciate the critique.
Love the intro!
Oh thank you! I'll tell Mike, he'll be so happy :-)
Thanks for these videos. I am in CA looking to move closer to family in the northeast, unfortunate about the tick explosion but for the most part it seems to suit our needs. I worry for my friends here, but as CA natives they don't want to leave their homes--I don't blame them one bit, but it's scary! I have been sharing your videos with them, so they know what to expect.
I have an uncle I deeply respect who lives up in the Sierras. He's a lifelong educator and general badass, set a bunch of the climbing routes in Yosemite in his younger days. Lived in that place his whole life. He can't leave a place he loves in such pain, he's going down with the ship.
Even in a place with a rough outlook, it's definitely worth building resilience- thanks for sharing the videos, I hope they are helping people instead of scaring them.
The northeastern tick explosion is so gross! But I agree it's not a reason to write off the region. I've been encouraging possums in my area, they really help with tick control. Knock on wood, no one's picked up ticks in my grasslands all year.
@@AmericanResiliency My main concern is lyme disease, but it seems the US is working to approve a new vaccine so this is enough peace of mind for the immediate future. Well, I can't say I want to be far from home either.
I am actually from New England and I didn't know possums ranged so far north. I and people I know have never seen one. Encouraging them is a good idea I think.
@@ac4941 Sorry I'm late to comment! Just wanted to chime in and say I am from Maine, and we definitely have possums here.
Will be interesting to see if these areas have changed over the past year. Thanks!
I'm very interested, too. This analysis was based mostly off the 4th National Climate Assessment, which came out in late 2018. A lot has changed since then! The 5th NCA, coming out in November, is supposed to include a big atlas. I'll be doing projections at the national, regional, and state levels, and I'll highlight what's changed from the last assessment.
I feel like the South need to take notes from Central and South America and implement siestas.
@glacierwolf2155 totally
what are your thoughts on how the outlook might change in light of the recent work on the subpolar gyre collapse tipping point? th-cam.com/video/LxoyaCSWFGs/w-d-xo.html
this paper is apparently suggesting that at 1.8 C, it’s expected we’ll trigger this tipping point that will be like a mini AMOC collapse with regional cooling of up to 2-3 C in the north atlantic and a northern movement of the jetstream
also, love your work! thank you for putting this information out there!
There is so much emerging work on tipping points, I'm definitely interested in seeing how they will impact the overall outlook. But, I'm not a climate scientist- I'm a science education expert. So I see my role as helping to communicate consensus science. I am studying the IPCC 6th Assessment- recent release- which really pushes climate adaptation work- and I am anticipating the 5th National Climate Assessment release in 2023. Particularly based on the 5th NCA, you should anticipate I will be releasing relevant new consensus information.
Great content
Thanks!
I can’t thank you enough for the pivotal information in all of your videos. I’ve learned a great deal and appreciate the tools you’ve provided. It’s refreshing from the serious degree of hopelessness one can feel from the information that’s available in the main stream currently. I’m currently moving my family from coastal Florida to Raleigh, NC partly as a hedge against future impacts of climate change in my lifetime and my kids/ kid’s kids. I understand it’s not the most optimal place but as of right now we’re starting a migration north and inland and are open to going where we need to go if we must in the future.
On a personal level, what do you think the best thing we can do to prepare for the future impacts on Raleigh; and on a community/regional/ business level, what are the best things we can invest our time, money and energy into to help build resilience in our new city/region?
Thank you for your kind words! I'll keep doing my best to provide quality information.
Your question is a big one, and I think Raleigh is a fantastic place to build resilience. To offer just a few tips, I'd suggest learning more about the area's water story and getting involved in appropriate local water protection as a first resilience step. Advocating for and planting climate-appropriate trees is also particularly crucial in this region- the USDA tree atlas almost certainly has specific advice for the city.
As new transplants, it's also important to get settled, and that means building community. It's valuable to spend time making friends and doing things that you enjoy- that builds community you can rely on in tough times, and that can rely on you! Building community is building resilience.
Thank you!
"opportunities for day drinking...." Now that's the spirit! (Pun intended). Thanks for an awesome video. You make the end of the world sound so much less scary.
Hah! Glad you enjoyed the video. Conditions are looking rough, those earth system measurements are coming in very different since 2023. Honestly, any problems we can solve by chilling out and being less productive... where the strategy works, it's worth using.
Great analysis. What happens to this map if/when AMOC collapses?
Also, what's going on in Mexico and further South? What happens there in terms of survivability will have a direct impact on how much competition there is for land and resources in the US.
@maxshields1055 great questions. I'm gonna try and give a non-gigantic answer. This map is original analysis based on high-consensus modeling, I built it up from state level videos that use cited high-consensus resources.
We don't have the same quality of modeling for Mexico and further south at 2C+, but what I've checked from the World Bank analysis, it generally looks pretty bad. Pressure to immigrate will be severe.
If/when AMOC collapses, there isn't the same high-consensus modeling, but I recently reviewed a high-quality paper that shows pretty good global modeling in this video:
th-cam.com/video/PdbOXyBurFo/w-d-xo.html
But it's important to remember, if AMOC tips, the current AMOC modeling is going to be interacting with the warming effects of what is already in Earth's atmosphere. The information in the video above is useful, but we have not yet found a high-quality source that integrates the models. Things will get weird.
@@AmericanResiliency thank you, Dr. Your reply is very much appreciated.
It’s too cold in Wisconsin I don’t know why you like it so much lol
Cold kills fungus- Wisconsin avoids "The Last of Us" type scenarios ;-) More seriously, it's that the rate of change is way low- there are other places I could see people enjoying more, but if you are interested in stable landscapes and healthy forests, lower-change areas are the way to go.
I’m in Toronto. Our weather is more like Vancouver now.
When I managed to get into some good data from Canada the projected changes were much larger than I expected. Many folks in the US have an assumption Canada is going to be lower change but that is not what the data shows. Thanks for your ground report.
Hi Emily, new subscriber here from the uk. Please can you do one of these for Europe?
@rjlbex1968 I need to do an update for Europe! Right now, this is the best I've got.
th-cam.com/video/CLNRd8lbfhw/w-d-xo.html
This outlook doesn't reflect the weirdness we've been experiencing since May of 23, it looks more and more like the gulf stream is breaking. And the UK would experience serious impacts from that- the kind of strange, very wet, weather that is being observed this year.
@@AmericanResiliency thank you, I'll take a look. The weather here is definitely weirding, we've barely had a summer yet. It's rained so so much since last autumn. Fingers crossed it changes soon. I wonder whether it's the decline of the AMOC 😢, or maybe descending water vapour from hunga tonga? 🤷
@@rjlbex1968 I've been hearing all about the agricultural impacts of the rain- very serious. We keep getting more evidence in all the time. Hopefully soon there will be a clearer picture of what is causing the change, what is coming next, and how to best respond.
❤
If there is a lot of multicultural migration to the northern states, how can we quickly assimilate the newcomers to the host culture? America used to be a melting pot, but is now more like a salad, with distinct culture groups doing their own thing. This trend cannot continue during massive climate change. I feel the best option is that the host cultures and migrating cultures pick and choose sociological elements from both groups that will help their society thrive. But I firmly believe the onus should be on the migrants to assimilate into their host societies. It's really just a question of manners. When a good Samaritan treats you with kindness, you return that kindness.
A huge challenge will be assuring the drug cartel networks to not come up from the south west. The dynamic in American communities right now is one where a huge amount of working class communities are essentially dying off due to drug addiction, in a way very similar to alcohol was introduced to Native Americans communities. I hate to say it, but, if American society wants to survive intact, there will probably have to be a war to defeat the drug cartels.
I leave military analysis to the military. They have a lot of great public-facing climate scenario information and they're definitely getting ready- you can find their war games without digging into anything that'll get you in trouble, it's all open.
The cultural stuff, I have to say that all interests me very much. That's a big part of why I founded AR. When we get going on building community-level climate resilience, the community first needs to have a mindset around what it wants to be- how it's going to stay true to its values.
Culturally, I'm a migrant. I grew up working class & union-oriented in Chicago, now I live in an agricultural county in Iowa. When I first moved to Iowa, I was totally shocked by the absence of corruption. I love it here, this is where I want to live. When I think about America in 2050, I hope I can help places like this stay the way they are.
Don't get me wrong, I love Chicago, too. But I don't want these two places I love to be the same. And unless we empower small communities to build resilience, they're gonna get washed out.
I would imagine that the fire ants and the killer bees will move as far north as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and southern Iowa by that time. And the dust bowl will extend into the south-western corner of Nebraska.
Oh, I fear the dust! There is enough memory here, people are really fighting it on the ground. I hope we can hold off a second dust bowl. In Oklahoma especially, they're really working hard across industries. In the part of Iowa where I live, there have been widespread changes in farming practice- a great awareness of the danger. So, I'm not saying that's not a serious issue, but it's an issue where there is a lot of aggressive work being done today.
I was just talking with a friend of mine who works on ants. There's a great paper came out recently on how the ant biology community thinks ants will be impacted by climate change. Long story short, fire ants are going to have a great time. Real bonus for all of us to look forward to...
Hooray for the Boring Area! 🤣 💤
Honestly, that stable zone was one of the biggest surprises I've found!
So what I'm hearing from this is that Washington State needs to start building their wall now and funnel all the California escapees into Portland.
Or they could come live with me in the northern midwest :-( We want people to come here!
There is fiber internet in Poweshiek county. They brought the line to my house when we moved in at no cost. People really do not know that there are options out there- in a world where you can do so many jobs remotely, I think getting the info out there while homes are still fairly affordable here is a big deal
After 9 months this video has 122 likes (including mine) and 58 comments (at least some of which are ignorant musings like @visicircle's not so subtle "migrants will need to be subjugated and maybe we should start a war with Mexico" rhetoric).
Meanwhile, over on the Chinese spyware app every American gleefully logs into daily, @chodaboy69's new dance video garners 3 million likes in under 5 minutes.
And you're telling me there's hope... 🤔
Maybe there's no response that would be satisfying to you, but I offer the following information in good faith. This channel has reached a total audience of almost 40,000 people in less than two years. I know it has helped many families make decisions about where to move. I give many in-person talks to groups and communities and I see people take action based on the information we help them access. It is not always easy to maintain hope, and hope can come in grim flavors. But I do what I can, and I am happy when I help people.
@@AmericanResiliency you are amazing and your work is beyond commendable. It was not my intent to insult your efforts.
It is my fellow citizens' inexplicable determination to continue ignoring this problem that has diminished my hope over the past 15 yrs (I should probably mention I'm from Oklahoma. Perhaps you'll recall our good Senator's snowball stunt, or the former head of the EPA Oklahoma's own Mr. Scott Pruitt). The fact that many of my fellow Americans are simultaneously working to dismantle western democracy isn't helping.
My hopefulness is a direct correlation of the number of people who leave TikTok to come join this conversation. I have and will continue to share this video with everyone I know and I look forward to exploring your additional and future content. Please keep up your great work!
@dbscout I appreciate that. I'm so upset about rapid decline of our rights and freedoms right now- my state is likely to put together a very serious abortion ban next Tuesday- that I'm going to take a moment to distract myself by writing about reaching people online.
This kind of content is not well-promoted by the algorithms... on Facebook, anything climate is flagged as potential misinformation and suppressed. On this platform, some of the work these past almost 2 years has been demonstrating that there is a demand for this kind of information and helping teach the algorithms how to connect it to search terms.
With the advertising grant I won from google, I'm now being able to help this information come up in searches. The channel became eligible for monetization last week. Someone did a deeper review of the content and it's now it's being recommended more often within the platform.
I'm a nerd so I watch the analytic patterns pretty closely (way too closely). It used to be, almost all of our traffic was word of mouth. This is the first week more than half of it has come from organic search.
So, that might actually be a big deal. People are looking for this. I hear all the time from people who write me that they've been looking for this information for years!
More people than we think are looking for this, and a fair part of the work I've been putting in at this initial stage is helping them find it. Behind the scenes stuff. I am hopeful we are now getting to a place where there is an opportunity to build momentum.
@@AmericanResiliency I am one of the ppl who was searching for this EXACT content and only discovered it through word of mouth.
Hearing about the success you are having with the algorithms and content gatekeepers honestly makes me more hopeful than anything else I think I could hear. It seems we've reached an inflection point in America. Ten years ago, if you'd asked me if social unrest and domestic extremism were as immediately threatening as climate change I would have laughed. Now, all I can do is say, "yes". The fact that you recognize the importance of messaging, and the dynamics of information delivery in our current social ecosystem gives me more hope than anything. Messaging is a disconnect for so many scientists. While we can't all be Sagan or Tyson, YOU are doing one HELLUVA job, and I sincerely hope that you are receiving the positive reinforcement your incredible work warrants.
@dbscout thanks! I am working to build awareness in the professional community around these communication issues. Been asked to give a few talks, submitting conference sessions, etc. There are a lot of people trying to do better. We just have to hope it is enough! In national survey work and from the stats I see on this channel, about 80% of the general population really wants to know about this climate stuff and be able to act locally. Americans are much less divided on this issue than some ruski bots would have you believe.
Add political climate and none of those states west of WI are livable. I’ll take my chances in Helena or Missoula MT.
I know some people working on resilience in Helena- cool town. Fingers crossed you all can get a handle on the shifting hydrology