Washington 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ค. 2024
- The NCA5 outlook for Washington state is very different from what we saw in the NCA4. In this video we learn new information that will help communities build resilience in eastern Washington, which remains very strong, and we identify important emerging challenges in western Washington, along with response actions.
00:00 Introduction
02:52 Temperature
07:41 Plant hardiness zones
09:11 Precipitation
12:30 Pollen
12:55 Extreme storms
15:23 Water cycle changes
16:07 Sea level rise
24:34 Fires
26:43 Review and action steps
Here's a link to the NCA5
nca2023.globalchange.gov/
And to the sea level rise viewer- check out your address if you're in a coastal area
coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr
Join our Discord:
/ discord - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
![เปิดบ้านสุดหรู "เเจ็ค the ghost" ลั่นถ้าป๋องกพลลำบากผมเลี้ยงเอง!! l [Nickynachat]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/1xbW4vULqGc/mqdefault.jpg)
I am in a valley in the foothills of the western cascades. I am quite worried about the change in water regime, but am working to plant some plants that will do well in the warmer and drier conditions. If you zoom in very closely, there are more moderate changes in those specific areas. My personal biggest worry is a landslide post fire and atmospheric river.
I'm so happy to hear from a person doing landscape work on the ground in these important areas! Thanks for sharing additional resources
I've been noticing the change for a while. Memorably I went to my hometown Bellingham in like 2012, I wanted to show my ex's daughter the starfish because they were so pretty. There were no starfish. None. I grew up with them all over the rocks in the water of the bay and they were gone. I found out that there is a blight that annihilated the populations along the west coast; it was helped in large part by climate change. Though it really hit in 2017 when the forest fire smoke actually reached Portland. It was sickly, hazy orange. It's happened several summers now when it never happened before then. We've had ice storms the last two winters and I never remember freezing rain like that. I'm 40, so being that I was born in Bellingham, the changes in the pnw are glaring. Shit's getting weird coupled with the rise of fascism... I love the pnw whatever the climate will be, I'm here for it. I'm more scared about fascism tbh, because it's more immediate. Existential disasters, better take refuge in unstained intelligence before thought. Thank's for the analysis. I'll watch out for Oregon!
Thanks for this ground report. The coastal changes are so bad- the kelp forests, that whole ecosystem. I find that many people struggle to make even manageable changes. Last summer we had bad smoke from the wildfires in Canada, which was very strange for our area. I have been encouraging my friends and family to do some things to prepare for this summer and I find people really need a hand held to do things like buy an air purifier- even "click this order button" levels of response are difficult for many people. I think it is deeply hard for people to respond to the change in front of them, as if that makes the change real in a new way? But, like a patient with a serious diagnosis, ignoring it will not make it go away.
@@AmericanResiliencyit's the same with earthquake prep out here. People just... don't?
I grew up with tornadoes. Everyone had an emergency plan and was prepared. People here don't even have a go bag, let alone spending 10 grand to harden their house so it doesn't fall on them and kill them in a nighttime quake, or buy earthquake insurance to ensure they aren't bankrupted by a quake. There's so many 7.0 potential faults out here that it doesn't even have to be the big one to kill you if you aren't prepared.
Hi Emily
This is Maryam from the PNW. Thank you for the report on WA state . Wow! What a change from what was predicted for the PNW earlier! Why such a drastic difference from what was predicted before?
Maryam, I wish I understood that better. As you get south of about Spokane and a few hundred miles inland, the projections are pretty similar from the NCA4 to the NCA5. But science has a history of underestimating change in the north, towards the poles, and I think we see that reflected here.
Eastern WA checking in, was glad to see the good news in NCA5, because we could use a break out here.
@GrantTheWxGuy that's for sure. I am wishing you folks all the best.
Hi Dr. Schoerning, thank you so much for the work that you do. I have a small question-I noticed your older WA video had timestamps/labeled sections, which were extremely useful for scrolling over to give an overview to people I knew prior to them watching the video for themselves. Would it be possible to reintroduce those timestamps/named sections to more modern uploads? I understand if it isn’t in the cards, might be a lot of work, I’m not familiar with how video uploading on YT works.
Again, thank you for everything you do. Awareness is so important, and the way you express this information in a way that provides adequate weight to reality without inspiring feelings of doom. I’m hoping to persuade my family to at least relocate to a better place in WA, this time building to make use of earth’s natural properties to ease the transition into a future of increased scarcity and overall expenditures. This video is an excellent tool to use in that endeavor.
@zf9903 thanks for your kind words and I am sorry to hear the current uploads aren't yet timestamped. So far as I can tell that is an automatic thing TH-cam does after content gets popular enough & it's been uploaded long enough. If I knew how to control it, I would have that feature on every video!
As this video gets closer to a thousand views, it seems like that is often what pushes content over to being better indexed. I'll make some time on the calendar to research this and see if there's a way I can get it happening faster & more regularly- it definitely makes the content more accessible and useful.
Thanks!
@bruceangelis4932 thanks so much!
Will you be doing all states? Or is there a pattern to the ones you're covering? Either way, thank you for the great information. This winter has definitely been crazy.
You're very welcome. I'm doing all the states but not in a logical order. Next up are South Dakota, Maryland, and New York.
Thank you so much for this wonderful WA overview! Just want to get some clarification, when you say the Palouse region of WA, are you talking about all the way over in Spokane and southeastern WA or eastern WA in general? The map (particularly showing precipitation seems to suggest that the whole are of eastern WA will have a lot of resilience when it comes to water (not just the Palouse).
@llamasamara some parts of eastern Washington outside of the Palouse are so arid that even if they're getting more water, they will probably still be pretty dry. When we're talking about the Palouse, this is a pretty good map for its boundaries as an ecoregion- the unique soil in this ecoregion is very important:
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Palouse_grasslands_map.svg
That additional water projected to the east of Washington could be what the Palouse needs to stay strong into the future, but that area I've heard called the scablands between the mountains and the Palouse- probably will remain fairly scabby. The soils are quite different.
@@AmericanResiliency thank you!
Do you have a Minnesota 2C planned? Much wanting to compare Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine for our destination. Going to be leaving Texas this summer
@millenial500 good for you, I think you're making a smart decision to move. I have Minnesota calendared for release on April 11th. There'll be a big range in the outlook across the state, with some excellent destination areas.
Please let us know how you choose between the 3
Thank you for making this video. Inland PNW is where I often envision myself ending up, being from the PNW but living in the high desert of NM now, it seems like it could be kind of an analogous place to the high elevation SW that I love today by mid century. I'm surprised by the drastic loss of freezing days in the higher elevations of the region, extending into the northern Rockies of Idaho, contrasted with the relative high elevation preservation found in Maine. Could this be because of the overwhelming effect of the warming Pacific Ocean air and precipitation on the ecosystems here? When I visited home in the PNW in December I was shocked at how warm it was because it was in the middle of a week long atmospheric river. If that warm wet air increasingly drenches the whole ecoregion, its easy to see more of that fall as rain and not snow.
I also found that drastic loss surprising, and I'll admit I don't understand it- although it does seem like it must be warm air from the Pacific.
I think it's really powerful to envision how you could bring practices from the high desert to this important and potentially increasingly analogous landscape of the inland PNW. Really, it hit me as a beautiful insight- what a deep move past grief into action. I feel like your insight helped me open up more mental space to imagine the future- thank you!
@@AmericanResiliency thank you! Ive thought this so often during my time in NM, just driving around Los Alamos or somewhere up North I just think "Wow, this place looks just like Bend, OR". Its a similar sagebrush, basaltic steppe punctuated by coniferous mountains. I look forward to your Oregon video as although the East has less agricultural and population potential, it's higher elevation and more topographically varied than the Columbia plateau, which I think may create interesting microclimates or refugia. Also fires.
@Jimmukun_ I am very interested to dig into the Oregon outlook, as well as Idaho. There's some real potential and I feel like getting more info on those high elevation places will help us understand wtf is going on with the Cascades better.
My aunt is in the CA Sierra Nevadas, she collected temperature data this summer because she thought the NCA4 modeling was way off, that it was already way hotter than projected at her high elevation home. Her home temp data definitely came in way hot. I think it's very important we keep working towards understanding in the high elevation west.
I am seeing sunburn and heat damage (after the 2021 Portland heat dome thru the fall of 2023) to trees in SW WA. Douglas fir, Western red cedars, and dogwoods are all showing major stress if you look for it.
@jameskelly1680 I have heard this from multiple people in the region, especially concerning the cedars. Some folks have also expressed to me a painful frustration that other people don't seem to notice the stress in the trees, tell them everything is fine, etc. Seems worth stating that you are absolutely not alone in this ground observation.
@@AmericanResiliency going hiking out on the islands in the sound, I can see signs of fire a long time ago. I don't think these areas are as immune to fire as people give them credit for, especially with the amount of fuel that has built up in the forest lands over the last century or so.
The only comforting thought is that due to the geography, the sound makes nice big fire breaks all over the place, so if you do see fires, I wouldn't expect major spread beyond the island where they originate.
From a firefighting perspective, this is going to make those fires easier to contain with modern techniques, because the terrain and water firebreaks are both naturally very helpful in controlling a blaze.
One thing that is of large concern though is that giant blue splotch over the Skagit River in the AMOC scenario. The Skagit feeds the entire water supply for Skagit and Island counties from 1 treatment plant that just shut down the old supplies from the islands a few years ago. Widbey loses all water supply if the Skagit gets inundated with saltwater, though I expect as long as the federal government has money, the strategic value of the widbey island air field will mean investment dollars will roll in for that national security asset.
Just like living on the same side of the street as a major hospital guarantees your power comes back on first, living next to a military base has its benefits too.
using these relative values seems to be biasing your evaluation in favor of currently arid regions. most of what you've said about eastern washington is also true of death valley
@ba_charles can you clarify what you mean by relative values? I don't think I understand your comment.
There's a lot of variation in the soil composition of eastern Washington. The Palouse region is agriculturally productive because of the excellent soil in the region. Very different soil type than you find in Death Valley.
@@AmericanResiliency i mean values in the mathematical sense. the data in these maps are all relative to the current baseline. we're already seeing dust bowl conditions in the summer and crop failures across the region. my point with death valley is that it doesn't matter whether it will have the same climate tomorrow when it's so hot and dry today
(i have to assume that you didn't mean to suggest that death valley would be productive but for lack of quality soil)