China just entered The War for humanoid robots - But Tesla has an edge!
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What people don't really realize is that Optimus helping scale Tesla's EV mission is ONLY a proof of concept step. The next total addressable market for Optimus afterwards is literally limitless.
Around 7:00. This is the biggest problem with the U.S. business model. Many departments working on the same product and playing the blame game.
I think that's common internationally, that's how everyone manage to hide their lack of competence, instead of improving and learning.
Tesla to other auto makers: hold my beer....
Giga Mexico! How many Optimus will be working on THAT assembly line nearly from the start.
0
You don't need a country with cheap but good working people when you have robots.
First of all, the robots won't be ready when they open up the Giga Mexico, that could really happen. Otherwise they would not need the GF there.
@@richard--sYou still need lots of human labor even with bots.
When the bots start taking over the production lines it wont be 100% bots.
Probably like 10-20% bots and increasing every year.
So you still need thousands of human workers.
Lars, thank you for reminding us about the humanoid robotics playing field. Not all humanoid robots are created equally.
Thing that Hyundai Groups Boston Dynamics vs. Tesla that came in 25 years later🤔 must reconsider too when we look at their humanoid robot and from China we will see what they have on offer to compete at Tesla level.
What a lot of people don't understand is that Tesla users are going to also be interested in a Tesla phone, a Tesla power wall, a Tesla laptop, a Tesla solar roof, Tesla accessories.
It's a complete tech ecosystem that will benefit from original design, and economy of scale from the getgo. Tesla also has incredibly brilliant people that as the video said, work together without all the drama.
And the glue that will cement it all together is the vehicles. If you ask someone to trash either their phone, or their car they will trash the phone because it's cheaper, and easier to replace. This means that the choice between an apple phone, or a Tesla one will be a no brainer for people that have Tesla cars. And if the Tesla phone is coming in at a lower price point for the same quality it throws a wrench into Apple's ecosystem hostage environment because they can repurchase the critical programs, or transfer things as necessary to the Android platform. One bill, one company, all the same branding with a company that isn't going to gouge your pocketbook to death.
People will also drive safer because what used to be a simple repair is now going to scrap their vehicle. Over time repairs will get much less expensive because the Lithium polymer batteries that were so dangerous to work with are being replaced with safer Lifepo4 technology. This will create a spare parts market as companies see the value in providing economical repairs from scrapped vehicles, including refurbished battery packs.
I have TSLA shares and a Tesla battery charger.
There is no Tesla phone or any plans for one, and Tesla doesn't use lithium polymer batteries in their vehicles. They're standard lithium ion with the 4680 batteries incorporating dry battery electrode tech making them almost a semi-solid state battery.
@@TecnamTwin incorrect. Long range use lithium ion (polymer). Standard range use lithium iron phosphate LFP
@@TecnamTwin
Tesla has been moving away from lithium-ion to to lithium iron phosphate for a few years now. Yes Tesla is currently not producing a phone, but that will change in a few years.
@@TecnamTwin "There is no Tesla phone or any plans for one,"
The person you replied to didn't make that claim either.
" and Tesla doesn't use lithium polymer batteries in their vehicles. "
Nor did the person make that claim either. Perhaps you should read the comment before you reply?
🏆🔋Tesla Energy will be bigger than Tesla Auto after year 2030 🔋🏆
Tesla bots will be bigger than Tesla energy in 2040!
Congrats on crossing the 98K subscriber threshold - so close to 100K! Maybe by end of March!
the end of pilots who can not withstand 100G while locked on target.
Another good one Lars, thanks!!
... 7:43 ... and add Grok to the mix ~
... what you get is streamlined interfacing between human and Optimus ... resulting in more effective communication, learning, and task execution ... later, add fleet software overlays and you have team interaction ... a new dynamic not yet available across distances both on the factory floor and elsewhere ... between teams of humans and teams of Optimus robots ... new dimensions in productivity await ... creative solutions abound down the pike ... should be fascinating to watch this unfold ...
*I wonder if the Tesla workers are wearing glasses with cameras to help teaching AI BOTS.* 😂😂😂
The government needs to wake up about this.this is important.
Diversity synchronism convergence is power. The machine making the machine making the machine making the machine. We are moving towards abundance.
Don't think that optimus is targeted working in the factories at scale, they are almost 96% automated already and next car will be 100%.
they are meant for work in places outside factories, this is where a robot, that can do many different tasks are most useful.
"Don't think that optimus is targeted working in the factories at scale, they are almost 96% automated already and next car will be 100%.
they are meant for work in places outside factories, this is where a robot, that can do many different tasks are most useful."
Of course they are going to use Optimus wherever they can, and that includes inside their factories.
Production is hard.
Optimus in factories is pointless. Repetitive and predictable tasks mean fixed station robots like those that already exist are the most efficient option. Optimus is ideally suited to unpredictable situations such as cleaning a home where the furniture is not always in the same place and cooking etc. Maybe picking stock in a supermarket and playing table tennis with people.
"Optimus in factories is pointless."
Incorrect.
"Repetitive and predictable tasks mean fixed station robots like those that already exist are the most efficient option."
If that were true Tesla would not have a need for human workers in their factories.
" Optimus is ideally suited to unpredictable situations such as cleaning a home where the furniture is not always in the same place and cooking etc. Maybe picking stock in a supermarket and playing table tennis with people."
Or working in factories.
Optimus existing in a humanoid observation world designed to emulate a human seems a limitation on ultimate designs and performance. A starting point? Looks like with robotic design, the sky's the limit.
4:50 They may have missed my idea of having HRs being able to walk and also use a segway. They seem to have thought of one-or-the-other but not what I thought of...dear, dear! My idea is to make the walking HRs mount a custom segway and to dismount at "will"...to make longer distances quicker and also to be able to walk so they can avoid obstacles and go upstairs etc. It's frustrating when they get so close to my idea, only to fail cos a permanently mounted segway (which 4:50 clealy looks like, to me) limits the HRs mobile capability. 😅
Will the UAW and IF Metal create their own Robots?
Nope😂
🤖< UAW & IF Metall can GFY ‼️
They rather get away with their Mafia money and invest in Yachts and Villas like the RuZZian oligarch protected by Delaware and three other hypocrite US tax havens for criminals after kaputting Panama, Bahamas, Switzerland or Liechtenstein, Andorra or others like Vanuatu etc. Really good move when Tesla goes out of Delaware and become a serious tax payer in Texas or somewhere else the company is making money!
I do like your video’s Lars, always very interesting but always makes me Stop…Think…and Marvel where Tesla is going!
Most Video’s about Tesla just talk about same old same old but yours always are eye opening videos! Thank You.
Looking forward to Optimus version 3 in the May! I think by 2025 our agi combined with Optimus will be be very interesting. 🧐
I wonder if the new low-cost tesla will look like the cybertruck just a stainless steel cube lol that'll be rad
I am puzzled by the lack of comment here and elsewhere on the implications of the Cybertruck "steer by wire", which is that there are no mechanical impediments to making vehicles for countries where the vehicles have their steering wheel on the starboard side of the viehicle. This opens up vast markets to Tesla.
Lars, any news about model pi-phone (release date, pre-orders,...)
We have no idea what the future of artificial intelligence, augmented reality and robotics will be. Its roaring like a freight train, full speed ahead. The future's so bright I gotta get shades!
Just wondering,
When will Elon enter the maritime industry…
Sustainable shipping across the world, Full Self Sailing?
Not just for shipping cars and car parts around the globe, but also for his barges returning the Falcon9 boosters.
Tesla is creating an entire product ecosystem. This is very unlike what most companies do. It may well end up as the largest and most profitable/successful on the planet. Everyone, even dedicated doubters and fud slingers should hedge their bets and own some shares.
Future human jobs will hinge around being an _android wrangler_ and keeping them on task should they experience some kind of glitch.
BYD and co better copy - this is what free market capitalism is about after all - competition increasing the supply until it meets demand at cost - not hindered by any anti-competitive rules.
they are already testing ai fighter jets. (can‘t be too difficult 😂)
The robot seems way too slow for an assembly line allowing only about 40 seconds for each operation.
Now, we must keep from destroying ourselves. We must impose an immutable foundation of positivity in our artificial intelligence paradigm as we cannot foresee the consequences of total instant robotically applied knowledge. Think BORG. Are we creating our replacements? Is our ultimate pupose to tend to that which we create?
Is it just me? but 1X robots look like people dressed as robots - think it has something to do with the over-long arms that you would have if someone was in the robot suit, operating the hands...
Indeed, I was very suspicious, there's enough room to hide someone inside, the grippers don't look very high tech and they're moving around on hover boards
So do you want a robot where its arm or leg will fall off 2 weeks into using it or something that will last years and years?
If legs are so good, why do we put wheels on cars
Legs can go anywhere, wheels can run fast on even roads
Wheels are a simple construction, legs are quite complicated
If wheels are so good, why do we have stairs?!
@@casperhansen826 you're making both our points
"If legs are so good, why do we put wheels on cars"
Would you rather have wheels than legs on your own body? How would you climb stairs? How would you decide on a wheel base where you can keep your balance while still being agile? How would you bend down to lift up stuff from the ground? How would you fit in narrow spaces?
The simple fact here is that humans are more agile because we have legs instead of wheels. People and humanoid robots are not going to live on a highway.
Robots are not going well on Freeway with a losing attitude. We would make ramps instead of stairs, easier, cheaper. Pick up objects with extendible claws. Vary wheelbase & track to suit applications.
I think that 2025 or even 2026 will be the year that the markets will see bottom line results that will move them.
To get there, Mexico needs to be built then ramped, Shanghai and Berlin converted and maybe expanded.
FSD needs regulatory approval plus some way to deal with vandals who even now are disrupting Waymo vehicles.
I'm also unsure how easy it will be to produce a FSD version for CT, Semi, Robotaxi etc when the current vision stream used for training comes from totally different vehicles.
I can see some of the big jumps forward, and they are getting closer getting closer, but there are still problems to be solved before the full benefits flow through.
Dont know why people like to use the word Chiva VS US War.... is not war just competition ....
Teach Optimus to ride an electric unicycle!
Mine does 40kph and it only weighs 10kg. The bigger ones do 90+!! I imagine a Plaid version could reach 300?
This is not as dumb as it sounds.
Around 8:25. Chinese government is not copying Tesla. The deal China and Tesla was for Tesla to share technology, patents and manufacturing processes with China. China has easy access to the Tesla way of producing EVs and AI.
"Chinese government is not copying Tesla."
Of course they are copying Tesla. Every company does copy others.
@@yourcrazybear did you even understand my original comment? I'd ask you to reread it, but you won't. And, if you did, you'd still not understand it.
@@TomUlcak "@yourcrazybear did you even understand my original comment? I'd ask you to reread it, but you won't. And, if you did, you'd still not understand it."
That's a weird personal attack. You are free to reply with some actual arguments.
@@yourcrazybear READ my original comment. Come on, why are you acting crazy?
@@TomUlcak "READ my original comment"
I did and I replied to it. Did you miss that? If you want to make a claim you will have to do better than that.
"Come on, why are you acting crazy?"
Says the person that tells someone to read your comment despite the simple fact that there is a comment in this very thread having a quote for the portion of the comment that the reply was referring to?
You made a false claim that the Chinese government is not copying Tesla and I replied to it.
Watch for the ultimate app, the software/harware/AI convergence. One "X" compatible with and encompassing internet, communication, robotics, artificial technology, augmented reality and projection technology. And its just a beginning. What hath God wrought? (SpaceX, Optimus, "X", Neuralink, EVs, cellular, starlink, social media, FSD....
Ooops, forgot about paypal. 😂😂😂
They still walk like Biden. 😂😂
Although I believe Tesla will solve FSD, then AGI, and will be the "winner takes most," of bots, I don't feel their moats around bot are as insurmountable as FSD. They don't have the data lead that they do with cars. That said, the company that gets bots working on meaningful task soonest and at scale, will start to to build a data advantage. Where Tesla has a big advantage is with the ability to scale manufacturing and vertical integration. Figure is getting a pile of cash, their bot seems great, they are lean, but what do they know about manufacturing at scale...close to zip, I would guess.
It's easier to collect data data for humanoid robots compared to cars, especially if you are training for specialized tasks. Tesla have the advantage of being able to use the same system for their cars and their robots though.
@@yourcrazybear I am not sure about that. The key to training a neural net is compute and the data set. Tesla is massively investing in compute, so that is well underway, and the cars have produced a gigantic data set, which creates an insurmountable moat around autonomy.
Sure, through teleoperation, programming, trial and error, etc., bots can be trained to do simple tasks. But that is not the end goal. The goal is an AGI that uses edge computing, housed in humanoid robots, creating a massive network of generalized and autonomous robots.
@@machoopichoo2 " I am not sure about that. The key to training a neural net is compute and the data set"
And it's easier to collect data in safe environments using machines that are fear cheaper to produce than cars.
"Tesla is massively investing in compute, so that is well underway, and the cars have produced a gigantic data set, which creates an insurmountable moat around autonomy."
When it comes to self driving vehicles. Sure.
"Sure, through teleoperation, programming, trial and error, etc., bots can be trained to do simple tasks. But that is not the end goal."
Well the topic you brought up was that Tesla may not have the same data lead when it comes to humanoids. And that's because it's easier to collect data in safe environments using cheaper hardware.
"The goal is an AGI that uses edge computing, housed in humanoid robots, creating a massive network of generalized and autonomous robots."
Sure. It's the ultimate dream.
@@yourcrazybear “it's easier to collect data in safe environments…”
> Not if you don't have millions of bots already made, like Tesla has with data collection cars. What does safety have to do with data collection. Data collection is all about scale.
> You are missing the point. Tesla has no major advantage, in this space vs. Figure, etc. It’s the scale of the data set Tesla has for FSD that makes it impossible for others to solve it before Tesla does. Now, Tesla will likely scale production and training faster than others and gain a data advantage.
“When it comes to self driving vehicles. Sure.”
> What are you talking about? Dojo, the neural net for FSD, and everything they have learned, along the way, are completely applicable to Optimus.
“Well the topic you brought up was that Tesla may not have the same data lead when it comes to humanoids. And that's because it's easier to collect data in safe environments using cheaper hardware.”
> a) Does not refute my point that training simple tasks is relatively easy compared to a generalized robot.
> b) You just made my point that Tesla does not have a huge data lead with bots. What point are you trying to make? To confirm that my point about not having a moat, is correct- you are agreeing with me?
“Sure. It's the ultimate dream”
> Ya, and even without an insurmountable data lead, Tesla will be the, “winner takes most,” in bots because of manufacturing excellence, vertical integration, cash on hand, the best and brightest engineers and scientists, and using humans as a model for the solution (like FSD and unlike Boston Dynamics, et al).
@@machoopichoo2 " Not if you don't have millions of bots already made, like Tesla has with data collection cars. What does safety have to do with data collection. Data collection is all about scale. "
It is certainly easier to collect data in safe environments using much cheaper hardware. The comparison here is cars vs cheaper robots in safe environments after all.
"> You are missing the point. Tesla has no major advantage, in this space vs. Figure, etc. It’s the scale of the data set Tesla has for FSD that makes it impossible for others to solve it before Tesla does. Now, Tesla will likely scale production and training faster than others and gain a data advantage. "
No. I'm not. Tesla's will not have as big advantage in this area as in the automotive sector for the exact reasons that I mentioned. I have never claimed the opposite and I'm also fully aware of Tesla's agility and fast paced innovation.
"> What are you talking about? Dojo, the neural net for FSD, and everything they have learned, along the way, are completely applicable to Optimus."
Which is exactly what I wrote in my first reply to you.
"> a) Does not refute my point that training simple tasks is relatively easy compared to a generalized robot."
That is obviously not the point of the claim either.
"> b) You just made my point that Tesla does not have a huge data lead with bots. What point are you trying to make? To confirm that my point about not having a moat, is correct- you are agreeing with me?"
I have never claimed that Tesla would already have a huge data lead when it comes to general purpose bots, so I naturally can't make your point as if we would have different views here.
"> Ya, and even without an insurmountable data lead, Tesla will be the, “winner takes most,” in bots because of manufacturing excellence, vertical integration, cash on hand, the best and brightest engineers and scientists, and using humans as a model for the solution (like FSD and unlike Boston Dynamics, et al)."
That's most likely yes.
They are not making the robot or programming it. Software is the brain of the robot. How you suppose to get the robot program by someone who doesn't even make car????
Tesla will surely have an easier time training their robots for the tasks needed.
This great video coupled with your Product Range Architecture video: th-cam.com/video/Tmy6I54dCYA/w-d-xo.html leads me to believe Tesla has this growth sequence down. Their future is continuing to grow while others, Apple, are stagnant.
Apple has lost its mojo when Steve Jobs died & has been riding off those products ever since, Tim Cook is not innovative as hes a logistics guy
Yes. And his mistake of not buying Tesla and now wasting many years on a car project is telling.
First
Nothing about what you’re saying makes sense Greg
Greg who? Can't see a comment by a Greg
@@niceguy1947It's from the video clip from the TV program.
Film a robot in your factory to pump your stock and use the AI word, this is a joke. The only company that has a real robot to put in their factories is Tesla.
There is no advantage of using humanoids on a new production line. Why would you?
"There is no advantage of using humanoids on a new production line. Why would you?"
Incorrect. Automation with the help of robots have a tendency to decrease costs.
@@yourcrazybear I said, humanoids.
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 "I said, humanoids."
Humanoids are robots.
@@yourcrazybear The only reason to have a humanoid is to replace a person. The question was, why would you use it on a new production line? It would be really stupid to automate processes with humanoids.
@@zaphodbeeblebrox2817 "The only reason to have a humanoid is to replace a person. "
And that's the most obvious use case for all automation robots throughout our history.
"The question was, why would you use it on a new production line?"
To replace a person of course.
"It would be really stupid to automate processes with humanoids."
No. It wouldn't. Humanoid robots would be able to do most of the things a human could.
🥰🤗Good day from Lismore, NSW. A hot day here in Goonellabah. Only seven months till I leave to go around AUSTRALIA. We are looking for four team members to be with me around Australia. We will take a camera and sound team for TV, TH-cam, and X.