Illinois 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ค. 2024
- Illinois is an urban and an agricultural powerhouse, and we're facing some pretty serious challenges as we look towards 2C, especially south of Peoria. Throughout the state we're seeing fairly large projected heat increases, particularly in nighttime heat. In specific locations, we've got pretty serious signals for dangerous floods. This video includes detailed information for Chicago and greater Chicagoland. Chicago is facing much more manageable change than New York or LA, I'd keep your eyes on this one.
Here's a link to the NCA5: nca2023.globalchange.gov/
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public.tableau.com/app/profil...
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Priceless, fearless and important. Thanks for all that you do.
@rapauli thank you, I am grateful for this time to do the work
Just found your channel yesterday. I have been looking for someone who presents this information so clearly for years. After almost 20 years in South Carolina I know it's time to make a change but I need the data to back me up. Thanks for your good work!
@brighthope246 I'm so glad you found the channel! Thanks for your kind words & please feel free to get in touch if you have any questions.
Living on a farm in Illinois. There is a LOT of work to do for us, especially considering how much of our farmland simply isn’t made for the brand of sustainable agriculture that we’d need to survive a more simplified system.
On that topic, i’d love to see a collaboration between your folks and Nate Hagen’s podcast, The Great Simplification. He is the premier “climate realist” of our times and I think he would love to see the work you are doing.
@opossumboyo, first off, I love your username & pic so much. Opossums are awesome!
I wrote Nate Hagens to see if he'd be interested in chatting- we'll see if I get on his radar or not, I agree there's some cool potential. Especially when we talk about what pieces we need to put together so that not so many people freaking die during the simplification.
You anywhere near Funk's Grove? I've talked with one of the farmers in this family, they're some cool people on the ground doing a lot of strong work putting in the kind of long term tree crops we're gonna want to have.
www.funkspuremaplesirup.com/
@@AmericanResiliency That’s interesting, I’ve never heard of Funk’s Grove. I live about an hour west of Springfield and I recognize the area from their website, so I’m interested in checking them out.
My family has grown corn and soy no-till near Beardstown, IL for most of my life. We are no till, use cover crops and reduce pesticide/herbicide use, and we’ve been trying to encourage that with neighbors but the resistance is still there, especially since imputs are still relatively cheap.
One thing that always shocks me is how little “food” we actually grow here. Almost everything our area farms goes into animal feed or biofuel feedstock. Some large-scale fruit crops, but it’s hard to imagine that remaining in place if things go the way they seem to be.
I am trying to build a community garden in my hometown with the intent of encouraging enough local food production to meet a percentage of the total food consumption of the town. Lots of permaculture books i’m going through trying to figure things out, but the biggest challenge has been getting help; nobody views it as an urgent issue at all where I live.
Great work you are doing. Do you have a newsletter or website I can go to see where I can help? This is the sort of thing we need to see a whole lot more of in the future.
We have a pretty active discord, you can hop on here:
discord.gg/8CbpaVPb
Or if you email me, I'll hold your email until we get better organized. We probably should do a newsletter but I just haven't had the bandwidth. I'm at ar@americanresiliency.org
I'm in Poweshiek County, Iowa- same story, a lot of what we grow isn't food for people. Living in farm country, in such abundance, I agree a lot of people in our region don't see the pressure, yet. But I can have good conversations with people and often drive a little action when I talk about economic opportunity from crop diversification. I get people to take a look at the ag outlook for the central valley in CA, people can see the whole market is going to change. Folks are starting to experiment with table crops, Iowa's now got a block grant program to encourage table crop expansion.
Thanks for sharing your family's farming practices. Farmers who are using those good practices while inputs are cheap are usually making some degree of at least short-term market sacrifices, and they're the ones showing the long-term impacts on soil. You all show us what is possible. Appreciate your good stewardship!
You rock!!!!!!! Great report!
@Environmental Coffeehouse thank you!
Always helpful to hear the break down from you! Chicago being "not totally on fire" is great news. 😂 My alderman is working to increase the tree canopy in my suburb for the future.
It's a great place guys!
@lisalikesplants planting new canopy trees now is so important, particularly for greater Chicagoland! I read a forestry report a while ago that said many of our older canopy trees in the area were approaching the end of their life cycle- that a new generation of canopy trees is needed in several ways.
I love Chicago. There are challenges for the city in this outlook, but I don't see them as anything Chicago won't muscle through. I didn't even really get into the current resilience work - lot of the area leadership is definitely aware of this climate info.
We're in the process of moving to central Illinois (Champaign County) so I appreciate the update, even though it was a little hard to hear. I'd rather have all information, good and bad, at my disposal--so thanks! Luckily my husband landed a job that's focused on sustainability and reducing their carbon footprint, in the center of a great agricultural community, so we have that going for us.
@julieghoulie3 Champaign County is a good place. I just looked over in that wet bulb visualization tool and it's a level 3- we're talking about conditions the southeast has already dealt with for generations.
It's a pretty big shift in local conditions, but building resilience is totally possible, and there is some great stuff happening in that county! I spent a lot of time at the university there visiting friends in my college years- good hiking around there, well-cared for groves, lot of great food in the area.
It's good to know what you're getting into, but if you're coming out of Texas (I think you mentioned?) this is a definite climate upgrade. I know the area fairly well and I am totally pumped to hear you're moving there!
@@AmericanResiliency This makes me so happy to hear, I'm super glad you have a favorable opinion of the area! And yep we're coming from Houston so as you said, it's definitely going to be an upgrade for us, even with Illinois warming. We're pumped to get up there before we have to live through another scorching Houston summer.
@juilieghoulie3 that is awesome. I hope you settle in great- that's a huge drop in risk and it's a nice place. Good culture, people are pretty chill.
Thinking of you all in Houston this morning- hope you & yours are okay
@@AmericanResiliency We were very fortunate that the worst part of the storm went south of us. So scary how quickly that escalated! Never seen anything quite like it and I've been here for most of my life. Thank you for thinking of us
What are the chances of getting the 4C data in Dustin's toolkit? Because... That's where i think we're headed
@williamroundy6254 absolutely no negativity meant, but to my way of thinking... with us already hitting tipping points, I just don't think a lot of the projections that far out have enough certainty for the team here to put in resources on visualizing 4C.
You could go poke around in the NCA5 Atlas itself to look at the 4C datasets- it's all in there, it's just a little clunkier.
That's entirely reasonable! Thanks for the reply, and I'm incredibly grateful for the work you're doing!
This summer, I will begin doing the bulk of my gardening at night and early morning, it's time to adapt.
@koicaine1230 our water utility is telling people to water before 8 or after 8- thought it was interesting to see such a strong message, they tied it in with the drought communications.
@@AmericanResiliency They used to do the same in Texas during the droughts and summer. They said most of it just evaporates in the sun so it makes sense. I don't think they do it anymore though because they get so much rain now.
@@koicaine1230 makes sense.
Born and raised in Bloomington!
@carissahowell Bloomington is a great town. The aviary in the Miller Park Zoo is one of my favorite places in Illinois.
Ya know, when I was young decades & decades ago, I would swear that we used to consider days over 90 rather than 95. In fact, the reason why I left my old region to move further north in '18 was the increase in days over 90. Changing goalposts?? Or maybe it was just a regional custom in SW PA to consider 90 real, real hot.
@OldJackWolf I've been pondering on this and I just can't remember. It does feel like people used to make a bigger deal of it when the thermometer hit 90. But also, 90+ would be especially hot in SW PA- I'm freaking impressed by the level of cool summer preservation we're projected to see in that part of the world even at 2C.
So cool to hear you attended Illinois Wesleyan!! As an IL high school student soon to apply for college, and an aspiring premed too, should I aim to go there? I love the appeal of LACs. How was your experience at Wesleyan?
@redicent I loved my time at IWU. I made close friends there who are still a big part of my life 20 years later. The education I received was top notch. I was on a research track from the beginning. I received excellent advice, got into great PhD programs direct from undergrad, and was offered 60% more baseline pay than other graduate students. IWU bio grads at that time were highly competitive in the market, and to my knowledge IWU is still excellent. All my graduating bio class got into med, vet, or grad school.
In my class, we graduated 10% of the biology majors who started as freshmen. At that time, the biology faculty were dedicated to failing out any students who wouldn't make it in med school. Even very smart people must work hard to make it through IWU biology, and that's a good thing. At IWU they push everyone to study abroad- my semester in Denmark was the most relaxed, fun, and generally awesome time I'd ever had in my life. I also did a biology May term in Costa Rica. IWU taught me a lot about the world, and they made my scholarships apply to the travel.
TLDR- I 100% recommend IWU.
I could see Rockford growing as a larger city based on this data.
@StevenNorth-1 for sure. Northern Illinois has a lot going for it in these projections.
Where can we find the graphic at 1:27 in the video?
@robinschaufler444 I just checked with folks & the tableau link should be working, related to your other comment.
public.tableau.com/app/profile/dustinrathke/viz/AmericanResiliency-v3/WBTRiskLevels?publish=yes
I've had trouble finding that specific graphic again, but you can find the monthly averaged info here, and I'm sure that specific graphic is somewhere on the copernicus site:
climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-global-temperature-record-streak-continues-april-2024-was-hottest-record
What do you think about the amount of debt Chicago has and how that may affect its ability to get ready?
@stephanimeyers9570 I could be wrong, but I don't see that as a special concern for Chicago over the other major US cities. The projections for Chicago are strong enough, I would bet on the city being able to continue to draw credit.
The city has also been working on climate resilience for quite a while. Chicago was the first major city with a climate action plan, in 2008, here's a link to the '22 update:
www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/climate-action-plan/home/2022-planning.html
I've lived in Kendall County my whole life, so I know quite well how the Fox River likes to flood lol
Also, shout out to Sandy @Environmental Coffeehouse for turning me on to this channel
You would make a great guest on her show!
@obsoleteoptics (love your name!) I'm gonna be on Sandy's show this Friday morning! Looking forward to the conversation
@@AmericanResiliency Friday morning? I thought her show was on Friday night 🌙
@@obsoleteoptics all I know is, I gotta be ready to record with her 9am Eastern this Friday!
@@AmericanResiliency oh, so it's being recorded, not broadcast live?
@@obsoleteoptics I thought it was live! She has some advertising up on her channel, I bet it will be clear if you go poke over there