For the context of the video, I think the implicit 6th criteria is that it has to be huntable. There are still the event-exclusive PokéPark Eggs. These were distributed as eggs at the PokéPark in Japan from March 12 to May 8, 2005. Each Pokémon has special moves they otherwise would not know by any method. The eggs were NOT shiny locked. One of the eggs was a Sing Spinda. As well, which egg you obtained from the list of available eggs was random. And considering Spinda has the pattern rareness, the rarity of any single Shiny Sing Spinda from Pokepark Japan is arguably the rarest Pokemon ever.
Referring to absols old video on hunting a level 1 magikarp video back in platinum, if you took level spawns into account, wouldn’t you consider trying to get a level 1 or even a level 100 magikarp one of the rarest hunts of all time? Statistically speaking, you have a 1/10,000 to get the level one like absol did, plus the 1/8192 shiny odds. So 1/81,920,000 base odds?
I think another super rare shiny that I never see people talk about is the shiny Lv. 1 Gyarados in BW2. May not be as rare as the Dragonair or Octillery since the shiny charm and lucky power can be used, but as far as unique attributes go I think its a super cool hunt for anyone crazy enough to do it. Anyway, this was a great video, keep it up!
i was just about to comment about this its still really rare either the level 1 gyarados or the level 100 magikarp since they are both .01% spawn rates even with the i dont know how much the luck power actually increases the spawn but it doesnt increase the shiny odds so at best its a 1% encounter rating for 1/4096 odds and thats assuming it gives you 100% better increase spawns. its up there for rarest shinies to obtain.
wait a minute the level 100 magikarp in the resort area in pokemon platnium. its the exact same as the one in the nature preserve but it doesn't have the shiny charm so its at 1/8192 odds. it has about a 1.22x10^-6% chance (or a 1 in 81.92 million odds) of seeing it let alone catching it. 2.38*10^-6% (or 1 in 41.096 million odds) is for the one at the nature preserve so its slightly higher. still I have yet to see anyone ever attempt this hunt I don't blame them because the chances are so low you have just about as good odds of winning the lottery at 3.42*10^-7%. (1 in 292 million). for context the rare mark three segment dudunsparce with best odds is around 1 in 68 million.
I love discussing stuff like this. Rarity can make a shiny hunt more fun and satisfying, and it's always cool when someone in the community becomes the first one to obtain something crazy.
The answer that jumps to my mind is any limited time event that wasn't shiny locked. The PokéPark eggs from the early 2000s or the Mobile GB GS Ball Celebi, given the 1/8192 odds, obscure method to obtain them, and short time of distribution
This was such a great video! Loved the edits, music choices and topic of this one. "The rarest" Shiny is something every shiny hunter loves to daydream about at some point I feel like. And thanks for having me as well!! Was so much fun to share and collect some thoughts about this topic with you!
I would have to agree with your perspective on Octillery being the rarest. Fishing Encounter in Hoenn has to be most painful thing to do. Awesome video Nils 🫶🏼
This video is fantastic. I have a lot of thoughts and things to say about it! The first thing is how funny that scene with Matt was. I originally just thought it was a clip of him holding up his Switch that you used, and then when he started to get mad I realized it was for the video specifically and nearly spit out my tea. So dam funny. Also congrats to Oli, that's great to hear he found that Dragonair, I cant wait to see his video. There's a lot subtleties in this video that help make it so great, which I feel shouldn't get overlooked. The biggest thing is, I like how you made this video in the form of a question, rather than your typical "this is the rarest/hardest shiny" blah blah blah listen to me I know all algorithm thing. As you touched on, getting an answer takes a specific criteria, and a lot, and a lot, of input from others who have shiny hunted before. The comments on this video already are pretty cool to read. Heck, when you think about it, like you said - can there even be A rarest shiny Pokémon? OR rather, can it only be narrowed down to a small group of the rarest, in very specific situations/categories? The video touches on that in a way. Although in the end you do pick A rarest (well you kinda don't either at the same time). I'm not so sure. I think your criteria is great, but still needs to expanded on. First, there probably needs to be a few different categories added. Ability of said Pokémon being able to be bred, and ability of the hunt to be multi+-hunted should be considered imo. There's probably some other more, or some that could be debated. I.E. like species, generations, odds, do GameCube games even count, or is limited to the mainstream handheld games. Or is GameCube just grouped into the accessibility criteria. It's an interesting thing to think about. Further on the topic of the criteria, while not specifically stated, you seemed to have given more weight to the "Quantity" category. This is tricky because it kinda turns the question to "what is the rarest shiny Pokémon of all time " to "what is the rarest shiny Pokémon hunt of all time" And those are two totally different things - but might be the question more people in shiny hunting are curious about. Plus quantity can always go up if everyone focused on it. Safari Week is good example of getting a bunch of people at once to focus on low % shinies like Dragonair, Chansey, etc. I do agree that Time does NOT equal rarity. But I think Time should be considered as one of the higher weighted categories. Time is interesting because it can only be used in theory. Since we all know that everyone has a chance of getting a shiny on their FIRST encounter, and thus in their first few... seconds, minutes, hours? Depends on the hunt... right(?) But we also know that first encounter shinies aren't very likely at all. When hunting a 1/8192 shiny, at encounter #5,678 there is a 50% chance the hunter would have found a shiny, a literal coin flip. At encounter #8,192 there is 63.2% chance, and at encounter #75,500 it becomes a 99.99% chance. These numbers can be used for an expectation of any particular hunt. All that needs to be known is encounters per hour AKA, 'MPH ('mons per hour). MPH can be increased for just about every hunt by multi+ hunting, and as such, time expected for any given hunt can be lowered. So with that said, then maybe the key is to find which hunts are least beneficial through multi+ hunting, if such hunts even exist. Even the Manaphy hunt these days can be controller modded to stack a bunch of systems when you think about it. I personally think I'd put Special Attribute as the highest weighted category. This is because for most people (myself included) shinies are just trophies in a way, and if you can get, say, an under-leveled shiny Dragonair - that sticks out largely to me as something extremely special, because it objectively kinda is in-game. For me, the Rarest Shiny cannot be determined.. at least not as an overall consensus. Like greatest Footballer or Football Team. There's too many factors to consider that are at higher priority for each individual/group. IF I had to ABSOLUTELY choose though, it would be getting the 2nd Roaming Dog shiny in HGSS. The first one is 'easy', getting the 2nd one in the same save file requires beating the E4 each time and then tracking it down afterwards. Again, time doesn't equal rarity, but if Quantity is being weighed high, who has that done at this point? Besides it also indirectly requires you to have gotten the first shiny Roamer too. its a 2 for 1 shiny roamer package. Again, awesome video, and love the discussions that revolve around this!
In my opinion @kwikpanik was correct. The stadium gift Pokémon are probably the rarest of all time. Octillery is crazy though because of the chance to flee and the fact that fishing makes multi-hunting an absolute PAIN in the ass. However, getting safari ball Octillery in emerald is actually as easy as getting a shiny remoraid and evolving it. There’s no underlevelled version like there is of the Dragonair. If you caught a remoraid in emerald, moved it through to PLA it would even be possible to get a shiny Gen 3 safari ball Octillery at level 25. Dragonair on the other hand can be found underlevlelled meaning a dratini cannot be turned into it. All that being said, Amnesia Psyduck from stadium is still rarer
Its all a matter of perspective! Of course you could evolve remoraid and get the safari ball, But to find the ocillery in the wild is a different story! I still think the stadium ones are good contenders though. Thanks for helping me out with the footage, thoughts, opinions and so on bud! Hope the trip is amazing.
Great vid Nils! Love all the perspectives from other hunters! Perhaps the community should come together to try and find the first ever safari zone octillery!
My biggest shiny rarity flex is that I found a shiny Chansey in HG or SS in an area it had a 1% encounter rate, so similar to the Dragonair, it had a 1 in 819200 chance. Thematically fitting that it was Chansey, too.
I love the insight you have in shiny hunting! It's awesome to see a community like this; unfortunately I am way too impatient to properly hunt myself :)
And to think…the only legit Shinies I’ve ever found in normal playthroughs were my - Hardy natured Hariyama in Emerald’s Victory Road - Quiet natured Slugma in Sapphire - Relaxed natured Rattata on Route 1 in LeafGreen - Brave natured Scraggy in Pokémon Black -> became a Scrafty and was traded to Pokémon X later on Even in the newer generations (latest played was Shield for one hour before returning it to Walmart; before that, Pokémon Omega Ruby), I had more luck finding a Legendary with the right natures and halfway decent IVs than I’d ever had with finding a Shiny. It’s why I admire anyone who goes for Shinies legit and gets them without using RNG Manips and instead opts purely for their natural luck 👍🏽 Great Video!
There are a lot of different constraints you're taking into account, so it may not be the case following your criteria- however statistically I personally believe the rarest shiny in existence (ignoring a specific pattern shiny Spinda) would be a Shiny, Star Sparkle, Authentic, Rare Marked, Pokérus inflicted, Sinistea encounter in SwSh's Glimwood Tangle. Fantastic video by the way! A very fun watch!
this kind of lines up nicely with something I recently put together. I searched youtube to find every shiny that has yet to be found in 5th gen (that is encounterable did not include pokemon that require breeding) so I would say that the original Black and White 1% fishing in rippling water encounter for Dragonite is definitely a contender. Black and white did not have the Luck entralink power so there is no way to increase the odds plus having a similar level of tediousness to octillary definitely puts it up there. There are also the 5%'s which include Milotic, Kingdra, poliwrath, Lanturn, Cloyster, Huntail, Gorbyss, and Politoad. I think many of these will go unhunted for a very long time as they are much easier to do in Black 2 white 2 but hey maybe one day someone will have the patients.
Amazing video, thanks so much for making! I believe I am owner of a one of a kind shiny too so far: a wild shiny Magcargo in Firered. (I was hunting for a Lv.25 Magcargo, got that one later) It is Lv.42 tho, so sadly no underleveled pokemon. I have not seen anyone encountering that pokemon in real life and on the internet. It would be a cool idea of someone made a check list for every obtainable pokemon in the games and if they have ever been encountered and caught.
The thing that makes Manaphy special is that you have to know what you're doing to ever get the chance of it being shiny. The 1% hunts are a pain to hunt sure, but I can guarantee many people around the world have found it, just because of the sheer number of copies that got sold and playthroughs that have been done over the years. I myself for example knew of someone who caught a 1% shiny chansey in the FR Safari Zone. But they just happened onto it, it wasn't a hunt. Because of that shinies that can just happen to anyone are never going to truly be the rarest shiny. They have happened to someone already, they just aren't a shiny hunter and thus people don't know about it and they themselves don't know how rare that event was.
Definetly like you said if its by the species to obtain its easily jirachi or manaphy. It's when it comes to ways of hunting pokemon it becomes tricky to choose. It's hard to say what is even considered a way of hunting something (the special attributes criteria). We have older games, low %, roamers, full odd eggs, colo, safari (and much more) which all make the hunts harder. But then there is stuff like deadbear hunting colo metagross in a premier ball. Since he did the hunt with the goal in mind to catch it in a premier ball, I would categorize it as a harder hunt and rarer shiny than the masterball colo metagross. Great vid and good on the editing!
If you ask what is the rarest shiny (of all time), but then disregard the ones that are no longer obtainable, your answer will not be the most rare shiny of all time
Probably not the rarest but one of if not the most time consuming shiny if you're going for full odds. Munchlax in D/P (and BD/SP), first you have to find the trees that can attract munchlax, and only up to 4 trees can attract it, it has a 1% spawn rate, and each tree attempt takes like 6 hours. If I've done my math correctly 4096×100×6hr/4= 70 years at odds.
@@TrainerNils is it still a 1 in 100 tho even if you know the spawn tree or does the encounter roll once and become a static encounter like an over world spawn.
This was so interesting. It was a very nice thought through video and the criteria of how to evaluate the rarest shiny pokemon makes a lot of sense. As a pokemon shiny hunter i feel so well represented by your opinion, that i can't argue at all. I was talking about this with some friends a while ago, but we couldn't come to the conclusion of what the rarest shiny pokemon actually could be. The Emerald Octillery tho sounds very reasonable, as you and Oliver stated. Much respect man, i love the video. Keep it up man!
I completely forgot about the Octillery when I gave you my answer, I also think this must be the "rarest", cause to me doing hoenn fishing hunts are already unenjoyable + the 1% encounter chance just makes it hell. On top of that, multi hunting isn't really possible.
Haha I was thinking you might have forgot about it, stating your argument on ”Quantity” as I call it. Thanks for helping me with the video, the footage, thoughts and so on!
For anyone wondering, that special Rattata in the B-Roll footage was using Flame Wheel. The only way it can learn this move is being breed with a Cyndaquil/Growlithe line pokemon. And lets be real, whose going to breed a Rattata in a normal playthrough? You can't even breed in FRLG until the post game.
My greatest accomplishment of shiny hunting is the fact that my first ever shiny was Mesprit in platinum, just during a playthrough, first encounter, and I still have it to this day
I think this was a very comprehensive and well researched video, man. Very good job. I agree with LJ to an extent, as technically speaking, there are still chances to hunt some of those event shinies through viable eggs still in save files or downloadable mpks. Essentially, that would make it like the Manaphy hunt but with a very limited supply. You can also use different versions of notable games, like American Pokemon Box, which is limited to only 1000 or so copies, and the hunt is incredibly arduous and was previously unheard of until recently, but there's little to no attributable difference. As you said, I think all variables, difficulty and context included, should be considered. I completely forgot about that octillery, so I'd love to see someone go for it. Maybe you? Lol
another one that would be considered one of the rarest shiny pokemon is shiny detective hat pikachu in pokemon go, it was shiny locked during the event where it was released in snapshot encounters, so to get it you would have to take a snapshot at the last second of the event, get the spawn, wait for pikachu's shiny to be turned back on, then click on it. yes, it is an event only pokemon so you cannot hunt it anymore, you could only ever get one check (per account) and i believe there are only 2 confirmed to exist, there may be a third but i dont remember.
Years ago I heard about a Safari Zone Pokemon hunt which won the Guiness World Record for the most encounters to finally get a shiny of that Pokemon. I could not find what it was through Google searches. Safari Pokemon are likely the rarest Pokemon to capture. There are several reasons for this. The Pokemon can just randomly run away. The odds of getting the rarest Safari Zone Pokemon to appear is low. This makes the odds of getting a shiny version you can actually capture low as well. The Safari Ball factors into this because while hunting in The Safari Zone. You do not have access to higher capture rate Pokeballs.
i think one of the rarest shiny should be a square shiny from sword and shield with the curry connoisseur mark right now less than 15 shiny with this caracteristic has been found and only 2 from the same species, the one with the lower encounter rate should be one of the hardest target 1/3472106 to get it each 1m45s the shiny pokemon obtained by curry cooking in sword and shield that come with a curry connoisseur mark you've 1/4 chance to encounter something each curry cooked (1m45s) 1 encounter take 7min you've 1/16 to get a square shiny and the lower encounter rate is skwovet in slumbering weal with 7,55/100 so each curry cooked you get (1/4)*(1/16)*(7.55/100)*(1/4096) or 1/3472106 each 1m45s
not a shiny pokemon, but my best friend is a rare pokemon hunter, and has boxes filled with super rare event exclusives, and one of his greatest achievements is his twin spindas, he spend over 3 years hunting for two identical spindas (identical IVs, level and spots) (no RNG manip). which of my knowledge is one of the only instances of it
its actually pretty easy to get RNG clones in emerald (or ruby/sapphire with dead battery) because the RNG is the same sequence at the same timings so if he found two spinda at the same time after restarting the game then it would be the same spinda. if its gen 4+ then its truly a momentous achievement because the odds are 1/4 billion approximately.
I thought this video was so insane! I never thought this would be possible. BUT I WOULD NEVER GUESS I GOT A 1% SHINY ELECTRODE IN SAPPHIRE TODAY!!! I was doing a shiny only run and was running around in the new mauville power plant and I can't believe I joined the 1% shiny hunter club after only 8,760REs 😭😭😭
I think theres an agument to be made for hunting a specific spinda pattern shiny (such as spotless shiny spinda) being the rarest because of the sheer number of spinda forms ~4.2 billion * 8192 which becomes a 1 in 3.44*10^13 for something like a spottless shiny spinda assuming every encounter is a spinda :) but beyond that great vid really enjoyed
I may have missed this being mentioned, but to all hunters who want this octillery, keep in mind Emerald's broken seed generation which imo may lower your chance even further (or help if you are using rng manipulation).
Really cool video, my proudest hunt was shiny turtwig and arceus. As a new shiny hunter i got lucky with 18 resets for turtwig and 4k for arceus. The look on my wifes face as I screamed was priceless. My favorite shinies of all time are mew and dragonair.
I didn't start actually "hunting" Shinies until about the time frame of Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon. I don't think I have any "rare" shinies I ever managed to obtain. Best I had was a Ho-Oh I hunted in Ultra Sun (Didn't end up catching it, that was my first ever shiny fail), a Shiny Smeargle in Pokemon Go from when Shiny Smeargle was first obtainable in Pokemon Go, and a couple of my Gen 9 Shinies which have special marks, such as Indeedee (female) with the Sleepy mark and a Drifblim with the Sleepy mark.
I think the Octillery has a higher chance of being found when the game first came out, although unrecorded, as you can only obtain Octillery and Remoraid in the Safari Zone. I would think it's possible there aren't even 8192 people that have attempted to catch a regular Dragonair in the FRLG safari zone, because you can get Dratini from the game corner.
I remember there being some event pikachu in pokemon go that was shiny locked, but 1 person was able to get a shiny of it by clicking on one after the event ended, that had spawned in during the event. Or something like that, I remember there being talk of only 1 confirmed case.
This is a really interesting brain teaser. I think this is a pretty solid way to view shiny rarity, but I do see a flaw in it. How many of a certain shiny existing shouldn't add to how rare the shiny is cause it's not effected by difficulty. If a 1% encounter hasn't been hunted, it's still as the same difficulty as every other 1% encounter, it just means less people are after that one. The 1% safari zone Dragonair while no doubt being incredibly impressive, isn't unique cause Chansey is also 1% in the safari zone, and I've seen plenty of shiny Chansey videos. Most would only value the shiny for it's method, so even if no one has ever hunted for a certain 1%, it's still a 1% that anyone can pick up their game and hunt right away. Thing is, I would never blame someone either for saying they have the rarest shiny based on how common that shiny is. The dragonair is technically one of the rarest shinies, but most would turn their nose at it for being just another 1% safari zone shiny. I think figuring out the rarest shiny comes down to splitting it into two categories: What's the rarest shiny using the rarest method to obtain it (such as never been hunted 1% encounters), and what's the hardest currently available shiny hunting method. I can't answer the first one, but the second would be a tie between the channel Jirachi and the Manaphy egg since both need you to complete a whole game and two consoles, but I'd argue Manaphy is harder to get since it's not a promise a used copy of ranger has an egg, on top of needing two mainline gen 4 games. If not, then good luck finding any except ranger at a reasonable price. As someone who wanted to do the Manaphy shiny hunt and is now stuck with 2 eggs (I forgot I already owned ranger when I started this) in soul silver until the retro game market calms down, any 1% encounter shiny sounds like a breeze.
I remember someone was going for a shiny Articuno (in the wild, not SR) in Let's Go! by getting a really long catch combo of Articuno. His game ended up closing due to an error but it was still wild to watch him spend so much time hunting for something you can SR in the same game.
In my opinion, I think if we take base odds out of the equation because some of those can get ridiculous (like the odds of finding authentic sinistea with rare mark etc etc), I would equate rarity to quantity as the fundamental rule. Many people have actually found some crazy shinies like Manaphy, Jirachi, and authentic sinistea at this point, because their gate to entry is purely 'time,' but when it comes to the Octillery like you stated, there's probably zero in existence because not only do you have to find it under strained conditions, you then need the luck to actually CATCH it. So that's two factors at play: immense time AND immense luck. TLDR: the fewer people that own one (if at all), the rarer a shiny is.
Excellent video, well explained and straightforward. Also, i am currently hunting for sneasel in the space-time distortions in legends arceus, it takes so long for distortions to spawn. Imagine a *shiny alpha* distortion exclusive. Probably the rarest would be one of the evolved shiny alpha fossils (rampardos and bastiodon), because they share spawns with their counterpart and the rowlet line.
*Correction* I was completely wrong, magnemite does not share spawns with the rowlet line/fossils, in fact its completely alone in the coastlands. In the highlands the rowlet line shares spawns with the fossils and their evos. So in conclusion one of the shiny alpha evolved fossils or deciduye from a distortion would be one of the rarest shiny pokemon of all time.
shiny honey tree munchlax if not mainline, then a shiny shadow pokemon in XD edit: I take that back actually, turns out you can soft reset the encounter, thought it generated the pokemon before checking the tree not after
This reminds me of a shiny Pokémon I have, a shiny lvl 50 dragonite from dragonspiral tower. I’d reckon that’s pretty high up there. Not only was it a 1% it’s a 1% in a shaking grass (whirlpool but it’s the same) and while fishing
yanno, I was thinking it had to be any shiny spinda since basically every single one is unique so every single shiny spinda is unique, the chances of two people having the same shiny spinda is near impossible, but I guess that's a bit of a cheap technical answer, as this shiny dragonair is way more impressive lol
A lot of people have answered this question with some niche pokémon thats debatably one of the rarests because it just kind of "feels right", I love that you mathematically proved this! 10/10, would 10 again!
Great video! However in the Dragonair vs Octillery debate should be taken into consideration that pokeblocks strats make catching pokemon way way easier, so although is more time consuming encountering a Octillery is way easier to catch one than a Dragonair
I see these and wonder if these ever inspire someone to go back and Gameshark dozens into existence just to distribute them and dilute the rarity. 'Course the community would probably be suspicious of randomly seeing one pop up in a Wonder Trade or whatever, but if they apawn it naturally but with a forced shiny chance...
This video really made me think. I like many others just accepted Manaphy as the rarest shiny of all time but never did I consider a lot of the points you brought up. At least for now I have to agree with your opinion that Octillery in Emerald is the rarest shiny of all time. I hope you make more videos like this one, it was a great watch, well done friend :)
Thanks Jason!! YES im 100% making more vids like this one. Made a similar one (But lower production value lol) last year, or the year before that called ”why people shiny hunt”. But ive actually already started planning the next one like this one! :)
The video from "Smurfs Collectables" is fake. When he uploaded it, he had something like "prank" or "joke" in the title and on Twitter the guys from the vid openly admitted that the shiny encounter was faked (the bait strat & catch was real tho). Yes, it's a pretty convincing fake. Still fake tho. _ I wanted to link the proof here but it seems like YT is removing my comment because of the link. Nils put the link to the proof in the video description, feel free to have a look if you're curious! :)
@@OliverMKP Hey Oli thanks man, I'm glad you had that tweet saved! I didnt realize how much traction that video got 😂 I'm going to make a video tomorrow explaining how it was faked and all the background with it, to clear the air so people understand, then it will be unlisted to avoid confusion for you. Congrats on the Dragonair, very happy to have heard you encountered it!!! Can't wait to see your video on whether it was caught 😄
@@RichieL1991 Ayee cheers, Rich!! I appreciate the congrats and effort to help clear up potential confusion. There probably would have been quite some questions whenever I finished and uploaded my video for Dragonair. Looking forward to your vid and I hope the roaming dogs treat you as well as always! :)
I still think that unown ? And ! Are the rarest. I know that they dont count si ce the shiny odds are bugged but imo that makes them rarer than everything i you got the SID that makes them 1/12k or something
Great video Nils! I agree with the 1% sides as they are least on quantity, but I have something that has potential. The bugged shinies in DP Battle Tower, the uncatchables there are not 1/8192 but 25 times that, 1/208,400, due to a bugged shiny lock. There were records of people finding shinies there but not knowing it were bugged this badly. I think that it won't be widely attempted because the odds and the uncatchable factors.
The biggest criteria was skipped tbh. Alternative methods. Octillery is breedable, so in itself, it isn't rare. You can even breed in FR/LG so the only thing that would make this Octillery rare is because it was caught in the safari zone, but, i could potentially hatch the egg in the safari zone as well. The only difference would be met as and obviously the method itself. This Octillery would be the rarest shiny based on the when received but not as in availability. That would still come down to a certain legendary or mythical or (still active) event mon. But we would then have the debate on wether a specific mon and its method are the rarest (as in this Octillery or Dragonite) or just numeric 'how many actually exist?'. And there are other Octillery's to be found elsewhere.
My first shiny was a shiny octillary in pearl. I cant remember catching him as i was 7 years old and probably didnt even know what shinys were but i found him in my box a while ago. It has my name as OT so definitely mine. Pretty cool i think
The rarest shiny Pokemon is always the one you're looking for in random encounters because I always seem to get everything but my target LONG before I ever get my target if I don't eventually give up on finding it, lol!
maybe not as rare as either of these mentioned, but i like the 1% level 9-12 SOS Salamence from the 1% Bagon encounter only on route 3. sure the odds are up to 1/256 per shiny, but it's still a 1/10k encounter before shininess is factored in (:
Going into the video I reckon gen 3 Feebas if we're only going by pokemon obtainable in one game or the egg phione (or manaphy? I always mix it up) you can trade from Ranger to a mainline game
I've been shining hunting technically since the day gold and silver came out because I traded a Charmander from Pokemon Red to Pokemon Gold and it came out purple I was confused for 2 weeks until people really figured out what they were and that you just got to walk around a bunch and you'll eventually run into them. Edit so im the longest shiny hunter ever
Out on a limb but I’d think the generation 1 transfer to gen 2 that become shiny are the super rare. Lucky you catch it lucky you keep it and lucky you transfer it up generations and then it could or couldn’t be shiny. Insane. Edit: and now thinking on this logic how can we even determine the odds of gen 1 shiny it’s prob way higher then 1:8192
I DO have an emerald cartridge and a lot of free time right now... But also I don't usually have good luck. About the final speech, if this video blows up and everyone starts hunting octilery it will not be the rarest anymore, right?
I'm not sure if they could be shiny, but I'd say the hardest are the Baton Pass Farfetch'd and Earthquake Gligar gift Pokemon from Stadium 2, just because of the effort it takes. Farfetch'd, you have to beat every Cup, both Gym Leader Castles, as well as Silver in Round 1. Gligar, you have to beat every Cup, both Gym Leader Castles, and Silver in both Rounds 1 and 2
What about that wild level 100 Magikarp? I think it was in Black/White but not sure, it's been a min and I gave up hunting him. But the Magikarp was found via fishing and each Pokemon species has a percentage chance of being fished up. Magikarp has 2 separate catch chances, one is like 55% and is common as all get out. The other Magikarp listing has a 1% chance. And this 1% chance Magikarp can be caught at any level up to the max level 100. So essentially you looking at a 1/100 to get the right Magikarp pool on top of another 1/100 chance that it'll pop at level 100. Meaning, you have a 1/10,000 chance to even encounter him, nevermind being shiny. But if you have the shiny charm, you have a 1/20,480,000 chance of finding him. No shiny charm, then 1/40,960,000.
theoretically getting any shiny spinda with a specific pattern is next to impossible. I dont know the numbers but from what I remember probably every shiny spinda is completley unique, and there are many that have never been found
there are ~4 billion unique spinda pattern combinations, so finding the intended shiny spinda is rather rare. unless you are playing in emerald with an early enough shiny frame so that you can hit it again consistently, you could get several identical shiny spinda.
Im trying to get enough resolve to continue my hunt for a shiny Ralts on emerald and my god, even with the repel trick I've already got 5 shinys that arent Ralts. I didnt even knew we could find seedots on emerald so early until I started this hunt and honestly, I wouldnt mind getting a shiny of that thing, its way rarer to encounter than Ralts with the repel trick and it has a sick red color too(my fav).
for me the rarest has to be manaphy or jirachi, because the odds of finding a copy of Ranger or Channel that still has the manaphy/jirachi in it is extremely low. and even if you do find a copy, it'll cost you hundreds. the paywall is just so insane
I think paldea has a rare hunt. A shiny wild arctibax from that one small cave in Glaseado Mountain, with no sandwich boosts of course. The cave is really glitchy so pokemon can spawn in the walls. Wild arctibax are also timid and would run away from you if you approach them, so if one were to spawn in the wall it can run off the map.
To me, the rarest shiny is a full odds shiny authentic sinistea from the Glimwood Tangle (1% encounter rate) with the following attributes: Rare mark: 1/1,000 Star sparkles: 1/4,096 Pokerus: 1/21,845 1/4,096 x 1/4,096 x 1/100 x 1/1,000 x 1/21,845 = 1/36,649,828,352,000,000 or 1 in 36.6 quadrillion No one will ever find this shiny pokemon.
i think attributes apart from the pokemon's form (pokerus, marks, etc.) arent really considered to be part of the rarest shiny pokemon competition because it allows these insane unattainable odds and the pokemon this video set out to find is meant to be a combination of all of these attributes (not just rarity, but reset time, accessibility, etc.) and combining those into something actually attainable.
![Warhammer 40k: Space Marine 2 | เพื่อจักรพรรดิ ! [ตอนเดียวจบ]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4M0ckYMA4-U/mqdefault.jpg)
Part 2 of this series: th-cam.com/video/M7QbYy6ZJ7s/w-d-xo.html
For the context of the video, I think the implicit 6th criteria is that it has to be huntable. There are still the event-exclusive PokéPark Eggs. These were distributed as eggs at the PokéPark in Japan from March 12 to May 8, 2005. Each Pokémon has special moves they otherwise would not know by any method. The eggs were NOT shiny locked. One of the eggs was a Sing Spinda. As well, which egg you obtained from the list of available eggs was random. And considering Spinda has the pattern rareness, the rarity of any single Shiny Sing Spinda from Pokepark Japan is arguably the rarest Pokemon ever.
Good input! I was saying that in the end of the video - that I wanted it to be huntble and not an event shiny you cant hunt in 2023
GREAT video, man!! Really well-thought out and great points all around on one of the trickiest topics to tackle in shiny hunting.
Appriciate it brother! Thanks again for all the help, footage, discussions back and fourth and so on. Glad you enjoyed it! 🙏🏽
Referring to absols old video on hunting a level 1 magikarp video back in platinum, if you took level spawns into account, wouldn’t you consider trying to get a level 1 or even a level 100 magikarp one of the rarest hunts of all time? Statistically speaking, you have a 1/10,000 to get the level one like absol did, plus the 1/8192 shiny odds. So 1/81,920,000 base odds?
@@garretth7233solid point
LOL I love the semantics. “That’s a costume. Still impressive! But still a costume.”
Great video!
Lmao glad you liked that! Thanks brother!
I think another super rare shiny that I never see people talk about is the shiny Lv. 1 Gyarados in BW2. May not be as rare as the Dragonair or Octillery since the shiny charm and lucky power can be used, but as far as unique attributes go I think its a super cool hunt for anyone crazy enough to do it. Anyway, this was a great video, keep it up!
It's also "not" possible to miss it compared to safari rng catch but it's a really cool pokémon none the less.
i was just about to comment about this its still really rare either the level 1 gyarados or the level 100 magikarp since they are both .01% spawn rates even with the i dont know how much the luck power actually increases the spawn but it doesnt increase the shiny odds so at best its a 1% encounter rating for 1/4096 odds and thats assuming it gives you 100% better increase spawns. its up there for rarest shinies to obtain.
wait a minute the level 100 magikarp in the resort area in pokemon platnium. its the exact same as the one in the nature preserve but it doesn't have the shiny charm so its at 1/8192 odds. it has about a 1.22x10^-6% chance (or a 1 in 81.92 million odds) of seeing it let alone catching it. 2.38*10^-6% (or 1 in 41.096 million odds) is for the one at the nature preserve so its slightly higher. still I have yet to see anyone ever attempt this hunt I don't blame them because the chances are so low you have just about as good odds of winning the lottery at 3.42*10^-7%. (1 in 292 million). for context the rare mark three segment dudunsparce with best odds is around 1 in 68 million.
by these criteria, wouldnt a lvl 2 shiny magicarp be even rarer? because who hunts a lvl 2 if a lvl 1 is possible, so fewer would obtain one
@@kcbsuiejd your right technically but i dont think any of them have been hunted so right now they are all equally as rare
I love discussing stuff like this. Rarity can make a shiny hunt more fun and satisfying, and it's always cool when someone in the community becomes the first one to obtain something crazy.
The answer that jumps to my mind is any limited time event that wasn't shiny locked. The PokéPark eggs from the early 2000s or the Mobile GB GS Ball Celebi, given the 1/8192 odds, obscure method to obtain them, and short time of distribution
Is there anyway to access the mobile GS ball anymore?
@@Johnnyversetti6969time machine
@@Johnnyversetti6969 No that's why a shiny from it would be exceedingly rare
He mentioned limited time events in his video, but only wanted to count shinies that are still available for people to hunt
My first thought was wish jirachi
what a solid video! congrats on making everyone who's seen this video now want to go after the 1% shiny octillery!
Thanks my friend! LMAO i dont know about that, But i would love to see it
Damn, that Dragonair took serious dedication! And I thought my Pokeradar 3 Segment Dunsparce hunt was hard lmao
This was such a great video! Loved the edits, music choices and topic of this one.
"The rarest" Shiny is something every shiny hunter loves to daydream about at some point I feel like. And thanks for having me as well!! Was so much fun to share and collect some thoughts about this topic with you!
Thank you so much again for helping me out on this one! Loved to have you on as always and Im looking forward to future projects together my friend!
I would have to agree with your perspective on Octillery being the rarest. Fishing Encounter in Hoenn has to be most painful thing to do. Awesome video Nils 🫶🏼
To me, the rarest shiny a friend of mine found was shiny wynaut on mirage island in Gen 3, after hunting for mirage island itself
Is that hunt rare ? The island one
@@cmf4706You have no idea...
This video is fantastic. I have a lot of thoughts and things to say about it!
The first thing is how funny that scene with Matt was. I originally just thought it was a clip of him holding up his Switch that you used, and then when he started to get mad I realized it was for the video specifically and nearly spit out my tea. So dam funny. Also congrats to Oli, that's great to hear he found that Dragonair, I cant wait to see his video.
There's a lot subtleties in this video that help make it so great, which I feel shouldn't get overlooked. The biggest thing is, I like how you made this video in the form of a question, rather than your typical "this is the rarest/hardest shiny" blah blah blah listen to me I know all algorithm thing.
As you touched on, getting an answer takes a specific criteria, and a lot, and a lot, of input from others who have shiny hunted before. The comments on this video already are pretty cool to read.
Heck, when you think about it, like you said - can there even be A rarest shiny Pokémon? OR rather, can it only be narrowed down to a small group of the rarest, in very specific situations/categories? The video touches on that in a way. Although in the end you do pick A rarest (well you kinda don't either at the same time). I'm not so sure.
I think your criteria is great, but still needs to expanded on. First, there probably needs to be a few different categories added. Ability of said Pokémon being able to be bred, and ability of the hunt to be multi+-hunted should be considered imo. There's probably some other more, or some that could be debated. I.E. like species, generations, odds, do GameCube games even count, or is limited to the mainstream handheld games. Or is GameCube just grouped into the accessibility criteria. It's an interesting thing to think about.
Further on the topic of the criteria, while not specifically stated, you seemed to have given more weight to the "Quantity" category. This is tricky because it kinda turns the question to "what is the rarest shiny Pokémon of all time " to "what is the rarest shiny Pokémon hunt of all time" And those are two totally different things - but might be the question more people in shiny hunting are curious about. Plus quantity can always go up if everyone focused on it. Safari Week is good example of getting a bunch of people at once to focus on low % shinies like Dragonair, Chansey, etc.
I do agree that Time does NOT equal rarity. But I think Time should be considered as one of the higher weighted categories. Time is interesting because it can only be used in theory. Since we all know that everyone has a chance of getting a shiny on their FIRST encounter, and thus in their first few... seconds, minutes, hours? Depends on the hunt... right(?) But we also know that first encounter shinies aren't very likely at all. When hunting a 1/8192 shiny, at encounter #5,678 there is a 50% chance the hunter would have found a shiny, a literal coin flip. At encounter #8,192 there is 63.2% chance, and at encounter #75,500 it becomes a 99.99% chance. These numbers can be used for an expectation of any particular hunt. All that needs to be known is encounters per hour AKA, 'MPH ('mons per hour). MPH can be increased for just about every hunt by multi+ hunting, and as such, time expected for any given hunt can be lowered.
So with that said, then maybe the key is to find which hunts are least beneficial through multi+ hunting, if such hunts even exist. Even the Manaphy hunt these days can be controller modded to stack a bunch of systems when you think about it.
I personally think I'd put Special Attribute as the highest weighted category. This is because for most people (myself included) shinies are just trophies in a way, and if you can get, say, an under-leveled shiny Dragonair - that sticks out largely to me as something extremely special, because it objectively kinda is in-game.
For me, the Rarest Shiny cannot be determined.. at least not as an overall consensus. Like greatest Footballer or Football Team. There's too many factors to consider that are at higher priority for each individual/group.
IF I had to ABSOLUTELY choose though, it would be getting the 2nd Roaming Dog shiny in HGSS. The first one is 'easy', getting the 2nd one in the same save file requires beating the E4 each time and then tracking it down afterwards. Again, time doesn't equal rarity, but if Quantity is being weighed high, who has that done at this point? Besides it also indirectly requires you to have gotten the first shiny Roamer too. its a 2 for 1 shiny roamer package.
Again, awesome video, and love the discussions that revolve around this!
In my opinion @kwikpanik was correct. The stadium gift Pokémon are probably the rarest of all time. Octillery is crazy though because of the chance to flee and the fact that fishing makes multi-hunting an absolute PAIN in the ass.
However, getting safari ball Octillery in emerald is actually as easy as getting a shiny remoraid and evolving it. There’s no underlevelled version like there is of the Dragonair. If you caught a remoraid in emerald, moved it through to PLA it would even be possible to get a shiny Gen 3 safari ball Octillery at level 25.
Dragonair on the other hand can be found underlevlelled meaning a dratini cannot be turned into it.
All that being said, Amnesia Psyduck from stadium is still rarer
Its all a matter of perspective! Of course you could evolve remoraid and get the safari ball, But to find the ocillery in the wild is a different story!
I still think the stadium ones are good contenders though. Thanks for helping me out with the footage, thoughts, opinions and so on bud! Hope the trip is amazing.
Great vid Nils! Love all the perspectives from other hunters! Perhaps the community should come together to try and find the first ever safari zone octillery!
I was thinking the same thing! Maybe Ill announce something like that!
My biggest shiny rarity flex is that I found a shiny Chansey in HG or SS in an area it had a 1% encounter rate, so similar to the Dragonair, it had a 1 in 819200 chance. Thematically fitting that it was Chansey, too.
Dam gs bro I always wonder if I found shinys wen I was young but ain’t kno I used to play emerald like crazy 😂
I love the insight you have in shiny hunting! It's awesome to see a community like this; unfortunately I am way too impatient to properly hunt myself :)
Sweet! A new channel with good enough content to binge while I shiny hunt!!
Thats wholesome, thank you and I hope you enjoy!
And to think…the only legit Shinies I’ve ever found in normal playthroughs were my
- Hardy natured Hariyama in Emerald’s Victory Road
- Quiet natured Slugma in Sapphire
- Relaxed natured Rattata on Route 1 in LeafGreen
- Brave natured Scraggy in Pokémon Black -> became a Scrafty and was traded to Pokémon X later on
Even in the newer generations (latest played was Shield for one hour before returning it to Walmart; before that, Pokémon Omega Ruby), I had more luck finding a Legendary with the right natures and halfway decent IVs than I’d ever had with finding a Shiny.
It’s why I admire anyone who goes for Shinies legit and gets them without using RNG Manips and instead opts purely for their natural luck 👍🏽
Great Video!
There are a lot of different constraints you're taking into account, so it may not be the case following your criteria- however statistically I personally believe the rarest shiny in existence (ignoring a specific pattern shiny Spinda) would be a Shiny, Star Sparkle, Authentic, Rare Marked, Pokérus inflicted, Sinistea encounter in SwSh's Glimwood Tangle.
Fantastic video by the way! A very fun watch!
this kind of lines up nicely with something I recently put together. I searched youtube to find every shiny that has yet to be found in 5th gen (that is encounterable did not include pokemon that require breeding) so I would say that the original Black and White 1% fishing in rippling water encounter for Dragonite is definitely a contender. Black and white did not have the Luck entralink power so there is no way to increase the odds plus having a similar level of tediousness to octillary definitely puts it up there. There are also the 5%'s which include Milotic, Kingdra, poliwrath, Lanturn, Cloyster, Huntail, Gorbyss, and Politoad. I think many of these will go unhunted for a very long time as they are much easier to do in Black 2 white 2 but hey maybe one day someone will have the patients.
Amazing video, thanks so much for making!
I believe I am owner of a one of a kind shiny too so far: a wild shiny Magcargo in Firered. (I was hunting for a Lv.25 Magcargo, got that one later)
It is Lv.42 tho, so sadly no underleveled pokemon.
I have not seen anyone encountering that pokemon in real life and on the internet.
It would be a cool idea of someone made a check list for every obtainable pokemon in the games and if they have ever been encountered and caught.
Amazing video bro! Loved every minute of it and the edit was super clean! 😍 good luck on the Octillary 😉
Thanks so much bro, and thanks for coming in fast with the footage as well! LMAO im not doing the Octillary anytime soon.. Or am I???
The thing that makes Manaphy special is that you have to know what you're doing to ever get the chance of it being shiny.
The 1% hunts are a pain to hunt sure, but I can guarantee many people around the world have found it, just because of the sheer number of copies that got sold and playthroughs that have been done over the years. I myself for example knew of someone who caught a 1% shiny chansey in the FR Safari Zone. But they just happened onto it, it wasn't a hunt.
Because of that shinies that can just happen to anyone are never going to truly be the rarest shiny. They have happened to someone already, they just aren't a shiny hunter and thus people don't know about it and they themselves don't know how rare that event was.
Definetly like you said if its by the species to obtain its easily jirachi or manaphy. It's when it comes to ways of hunting pokemon it becomes tricky to choose. It's hard to say what is even considered a way of hunting something (the special attributes criteria). We have older games, low %, roamers, full odd eggs, colo, safari (and much more) which all make the hunts harder. But then there is stuff like deadbear hunting colo metagross in a premier ball. Since he did the hunt with the goal in mind to catch it in a premier ball, I would categorize it as a harder hunt and rarer shiny than the masterball colo metagross.
Great vid and good on the editing!
If you ask what is the rarest shiny (of all time), but then disregard the ones that are no longer obtainable, your answer will not be the most rare shiny of all time
Probably not the rarest but one of if not the most time consuming shiny if you're going for full odds. Munchlax in D/P (and BD/SP), first you have to find the trees that can attract munchlax, and only up to 4 trees can attract it, it has a 1% spawn rate, and each tree attempt takes like 6 hours. If I've done my math correctly 4096×100×6hr/4= 70 years at odds.
I'm pretty sure Lax still had 8192 in dpp so twice as long
pretty sure you can skip the timer by messing with the system clock? but you still need to gather all that honey too
There are methods to find Which tree Very fast. And then its just another soft reset Hunt.
@@TrainerNils is it still a 1 in 100 tho even if you know the spawn tree or does the encounter roll once and become a static encounter like an over world spawn.
True! But to say it would take someone 70 years. Idk brother. I know multiple people who has found the munchlax.@@zackcampbell1346
Love videos like this, so many great hunters in this video! Very well made!
Very interesting to hear about! I've been shiny hunting a lot recently in Pokémon go and Legends Arceus, and it's been really rewarding and fun
This was so interesting. It was a very nice thought through video and the criteria of how to evaluate the rarest shiny pokemon makes a lot of sense.
As a pokemon shiny hunter i feel so well represented by your opinion, that i can't argue at all. I was talking about this with some friends a while ago, but we couldn't come to the conclusion of what the rarest shiny pokemon actually could be. The Emerald Octillery tho sounds very reasonable, as you and Oliver stated.
Much respect man, i love the video. Keep it up man!
Thanks for the kind words dude!
I completely forgot about the Octillery when I gave you my answer, I also think this must be the "rarest", cause to me doing hoenn fishing hunts are already unenjoyable + the 1% encounter chance just makes it hell. On top of that, multi hunting isn't really possible.
Haha I was thinking you might have forgot about it, stating your argument on ”Quantity” as I call it.
Thanks for helping me with the video, the footage, thoughts and so on!
For anyone wondering, that special Rattata in the B-Roll footage was using Flame Wheel. The only way it can learn this move is being breed with a Cyndaquil/Growlithe line pokemon. And lets be real, whose going to breed a Rattata in a normal playthrough? You can't even breed in FRLG until the post game.
My greatest accomplishment of shiny hunting is the fact that my first ever shiny was Mesprit in platinum, just during a playthrough, first encounter, and I still have it to this day
I think this was a very comprehensive and well researched video, man. Very good job. I agree with LJ to an extent, as technically speaking, there are still chances to hunt some of those event shinies through viable eggs still in save files or downloadable mpks. Essentially, that would make it like the Manaphy hunt but with a very limited supply. You can also use different versions of notable games, like American Pokemon Box, which is limited to only 1000 or so copies, and the hunt is incredibly arduous and was previously unheard of until recently, but there's little to no attributable difference. As you said, I think all variables, difficulty and context included, should be considered. I completely forgot about that octillery, so I'd love to see someone go for it. Maybe you? Lol
Great video. You're also the most Swedish sounding Swede I have ever heard in my entire life, I love it
another one that would be considered one of the rarest shiny pokemon is shiny detective hat pikachu in pokemon go, it was shiny locked during the event where it was released in snapshot encounters, so to get it you would have to take a snapshot at the last second of the event, get the spawn, wait for pikachu's shiny to be turned back on, then click on it. yes, it is an event only pokemon so you cannot hunt it anymore, you could only ever get one check (per account) and i believe there are only 2 confirmed to exist, there may be a third but i dont remember.
For such a small channel, this is an AMAZING video! Keep it up and you'll be huge!
Thanks dude!!
Years ago I heard about a Safari Zone Pokemon hunt which won the Guiness World Record for the most encounters to finally get a shiny of that Pokemon. I could not find what it was through Google searches. Safari Pokemon are likely the rarest Pokemon to capture. There are several reasons for this. The Pokemon can just randomly run away. The odds of getting the rarest Safari Zone Pokemon to appear is low. This makes the odds of getting a shiny version you can actually capture low as well. The Safari Ball factors into this because while hunting in The Safari Zone. You do not have access to higher capture rate Pokeballs.
i think one of the rarest shiny should be a square shiny from sword and shield with the curry connoisseur mark right now less than 15 shiny with this caracteristic has been found and only 2 from the same species, the one with the lower encounter rate should be one of the hardest target 1/3472106 to get it each 1m45s
the shiny pokemon obtained by curry cooking in sword and shield that come with a curry connoisseur mark you've 1/4 chance to encounter something each curry cooked (1m45s) 1 encounter take 7min you've 1/16 to get a square shiny and the lower encounter rate is skwovet in slumbering weal with 7,55/100 so each curry cooked you get (1/4)*(1/16)*(7.55/100)*(1/4096) or 1/3472106 each 1m45s
not a shiny pokemon, but my best friend is a rare pokemon hunter, and has boxes filled with super rare event exclusives, and one of his greatest achievements is his twin spindas, he spend over 3 years hunting for two identical spindas (identical IVs, level and spots) (no RNG manip). which of my knowledge is one of the only instances of it
its actually pretty easy to get RNG clones in emerald (or ruby/sapphire with dead battery) because the RNG is the same sequence at the same timings so if he found two spinda at the same time after restarting the game then it would be the same spinda.
if its gen 4+ then its truly a momentous achievement because the odds are 1/4 billion approximately.
@@leftiealex3632 it was in B/W2 where spinda is only obtainable throught an in-game trade
I thought this video was so insane! I never thought this would be possible. BUT I WOULD NEVER GUESS I GOT A 1% SHINY ELECTRODE IN SAPPHIRE TODAY!!! I was doing a shiny only run and was running around in the new mauville power plant and I can't believe I joined the 1% shiny hunter club after only 8,760REs 😭😭😭
The rarest shiny pokemon of all time is whatever one I currently happen to be hunting apparently.
I think theres an agument to be made for hunting a specific spinda pattern shiny (such as spotless shiny spinda) being the rarest because of the sheer number of spinda forms ~4.2 billion * 8192 which becomes a 1 in 3.44*10^13 for something like a spottless shiny spinda assuming every encounter is a spinda :) but beyond that great vid really enjoyed
I may have missed this being mentioned, but to all hunters who want this octillery, keep in mind Emerald's broken seed generation which imo may lower your chance even further (or help if you are using rng manipulation).
Your vids are so informative and chill af mush love keep it up🍄🖤☮️
Really cool video, my proudest hunt was shiny turtwig and arceus. As a new shiny hunter i got lucky with 18 resets for turtwig and 4k for arceus. The look on my wifes face as I screamed was priceless.
My favorite shinies of all time are mew and dragonair.
Now we want for most common shiny. (Probably Gyrados, or Haxorus since the game has a garenteed shiny of them)
I didn't start actually "hunting" Shinies until about the time frame of Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon.
I don't think I have any "rare" shinies I ever managed to obtain. Best I had was a Ho-Oh I hunted in Ultra Sun (Didn't end up catching it, that was my first ever shiny fail), a Shiny Smeargle in Pokemon Go from when Shiny Smeargle was first obtainable in Pokemon Go, and a couple of my Gen 9 Shinies which have special marks, such as Indeedee (female) with the Sleepy mark and a Drifblim with the Sleepy mark.
I think the Octillery has a higher chance of being found when the game first came out, although unrecorded, as you can only obtain Octillery and Remoraid in the Safari Zone.
I would think it's possible there aren't even 8192 people that have attempted to catch a regular Dragonair in the FRLG safari zone, because you can get Dratini from the game corner.
In black and white 2, you have as low as a 0.25% chance to find hidden ability Pinsir or heracross in a hidden grotto
Seriously great vid dude! Really interesting to see all the perspectives and honestly learnt a lot lol.
Thanks dude! Glad you liked it, cool you learnt a lot, was not expecting you say that!
I remember there being some event pikachu in pokemon go that was shiny locked, but 1 person was able to get a shiny of it by clicking on one after the event ended, that had spawned in during the event. Or something like that, I remember there being talk of only 1 confirmed case.
This is a really interesting brain teaser. I think this is a pretty solid way to view shiny rarity, but I do see a flaw in it. How many of a certain shiny existing shouldn't add to how rare the shiny is cause it's not effected by difficulty. If a 1% encounter hasn't been hunted, it's still as the same difficulty as every other 1% encounter, it just means less people are after that one. The 1% safari zone Dragonair while no doubt being incredibly impressive, isn't unique cause Chansey is also 1% in the safari zone, and I've seen plenty of shiny Chansey videos. Most would only value the shiny for it's method, so even if no one has ever hunted for a certain 1%, it's still a 1% that anyone can pick up their game and hunt right away.
Thing is, I would never blame someone either for saying they have the rarest shiny based on how common that shiny is. The dragonair is technically one of the rarest shinies, but most would turn their nose at it for being just another 1% safari zone shiny. I think figuring out the rarest shiny comes down to splitting it into two categories: What's the rarest shiny using the rarest method to obtain it (such as never been hunted 1% encounters), and what's the hardest currently available shiny hunting method.
I can't answer the first one, but the second would be a tie between the channel Jirachi and the Manaphy egg since both need you to complete a whole game and two consoles, but I'd argue Manaphy is harder to get since it's not a promise a used copy of ranger has an egg, on top of needing two mainline gen 4 games. If not, then good luck finding any except ranger at a reasonable price. As someone who wanted to do the Manaphy shiny hunt and is now stuck with 2 eggs (I forgot I already owned ranger when I started this) in soul silver until the retro game market calms down, any 1% encounter shiny sounds like a breeze.
I remember someone was going for a shiny Articuno (in the wild, not SR) in Let's Go! by getting a really long catch combo of Articuno. His game ended up closing due to an error but it was still wild to watch him spend so much time hunting for something you can SR in the same game.
Great video , id say Maybe lower music volume next time as its sometimes hard to hear you with the music being a little loud in the beginning
In my opinion, I think if we take base odds out of the equation because some of those can get ridiculous (like the odds of finding authentic sinistea with rare mark etc etc), I would equate rarity to quantity as the fundamental rule. Many people have actually found some crazy shinies like Manaphy, Jirachi, and authentic sinistea at this point, because their gate to entry is purely 'time,' but when it comes to the Octillery like you stated, there's probably zero in existence because not only do you have to find it under strained conditions, you then need the luck to actually CATCH it. So that's two factors at play: immense time AND immense luck.
TLDR: the fewer people that own one (if at all), the rarer a shiny is.
What about the level 100 Magikarp in the resort in dimond, pearl, platinum?
Excellent video, well explained and straightforward.
Also, i am currently hunting for sneasel in the space-time distortions in legends arceus, it takes so long for distortions to spawn.
Imagine a *shiny alpha* distortion exclusive.
Probably the rarest would be one of the evolved shiny alpha fossils (rampardos and bastiodon), because they share spawns with their counterpart and the rowlet line.
and to think i still need REGULAR alphas of most of those...
*Correction*
I was completely wrong, magnemite does not share spawns with the rowlet line/fossils, in fact its completely alone in the coastlands.
In the highlands the rowlet line shares spawns with the fossils and their evos.
So in conclusion one of the shiny alpha evolved fossils or deciduye from a distortion would be one of the rarest shiny pokemon of all time.
Pokemon is the only game where being completely different is preferred. 😂
shiny honey tree munchlax
if not mainline, then a shiny shadow pokemon in XD
edit: I take that back actually, turns out you can soft reset the encounter, thought it generated the pokemon before checking the tree not after
This video is super well made! Earned a sub :)
Whilst its SV, which means it’s huntable with higher odds, a 6 Perfect IV Rare Mark Shiny 3-Segment Dudunsparce is a strong candidate for rarest shiny
This reminds me of a shiny Pokémon I have, a shiny lvl 50 dragonite from dragonspiral tower. I’d reckon that’s pretty high up there. Not only was it a 1% it’s a 1% in a shaking grass (whirlpool but it’s the same) and while fishing
yanno, I was thinking it had to be any shiny spinda since basically every single one is unique so every single shiny spinda is unique, the chances of two people having the same shiny spinda is near impossible, but I guess that's a bit of a cheap technical answer, as this shiny dragonair is way more impressive lol
The criteria where less people having hunted for a Pokemon does not make the Pokemon rarer. It just makes the Pokemon less sought after.
A lot of people have answered this question with some niche pokémon thats debatably one of the rarests because it just kind of "feels right", I love that you mathematically proved this! 10/10, would 10 again!
Great video! However in the Dragonair vs Octillery debate should be taken into consideration that pokeblocks strats make catching pokemon way way easier, so although is more time consuming encountering a Octillery is way easier to catch one than a Dragonair
this is one smart video that i cant understand, but very entertaining
I see these and wonder if these ever inspire someone to go back and Gameshark dozens into existence just to distribute them and dilute the rarity.
'Course the community would probably be suspicious of randomly seeing one pop up in a Wonder Trade or whatever, but if they apawn it naturally but with a forced shiny chance...
This video really made me think. I like many others just accepted Manaphy as the rarest shiny of all time but never did I consider a lot of the points you brought up. At least for now I have to agree with your opinion that Octillery in Emerald is the rarest shiny of all time. I hope you make more videos like this one, it was a great watch, well done friend :)
Thanks Jason!! YES im 100% making more vids like this one. Made a similar one (But lower production value lol) last year, or the year before that called ”why people shiny hunt”. But ive actually already started planning the next one like this one! :)
Great video very entertaining but you’re audio mixing is a bit rough turn down the music slightly and it’s be great
There’s a user by Smurfs Collectables that has caught the Shiny Dragonair
The video from "Smurfs Collectables" is fake.
When he uploaded it, he had something like "prank" or "joke" in the title and on Twitter the guys from the vid openly
admitted that the shiny encounter was faked (the bait strat & catch was real tho).
Yes, it's a pretty convincing fake. Still fake tho.
_
I wanted to link the proof here but it seems like YT is removing my comment because of the link.
Nils put the link to the proof in the video description, feel free to have a look if you're curious! :)
@@OliverMKP wow I see and thank you it looks very convincing
@@OliverMKP Hey Oli thanks man, I'm glad you had that tweet saved! I didnt realize how much traction that video got 😂
I'm going to make a video tomorrow explaining how it was faked and all the background with it, to clear the air so people understand, then it will be unlisted to avoid confusion for you.
Congrats on the Dragonair, very happy to have heard you encountered it!!! Can't wait to see your video on whether it was caught 😄
@@RichieL1991 Ayee cheers, Rich!! I appreciate the congrats and effort to help clear up potential confusion. There probably would have been quite some questions whenever I finished and uploaded my video for Dragonair.
Looking forward to your vid and I hope the roaming dogs treat you as well as always! :)
I still think that unown ? And ! Are the rarest. I know that they dont count si ce the shiny odds are bugged but imo that makes them rarer than everything i you got the SID that makes them 1/12k or something
IIRC the rarest unown is O. .5% encounter rate and 1/18k shiny odds
my thought process would've been gen 3 Feebas or Gen 4 Munchlax. great video though :)
Great video Nils! I agree with the 1% sides as they are least on quantity, but I have something that has potential. The bugged shinies in DP Battle Tower, the uncatchables there are not 1/8192 but 25 times that, 1/208,400, due to a bugged shiny lock. There were records of people finding shinies there but not knowing it were bugged this badly. I think that it won't be widely attempted because the odds and the uncatchable factors.
The biggest criteria was skipped tbh. Alternative methods.
Octillery is breedable, so in itself, it isn't rare. You can even breed in FR/LG so the only thing that would make this Octillery rare is because it was caught in the safari zone, but, i could potentially hatch the egg in the safari zone as well. The only difference would be met as and obviously the method itself. This Octillery would be the rarest shiny based on the when received but not as in availability. That would still come down to a certain legendary or mythical or (still active) event mon. But we would then have the debate on wether a specific mon and its method are the rarest (as in this Octillery or Dragonite) or just numeric 'how many actually exist?'. And there are other Octillery's to be found elsewhere.
Man so happy for you that this video is blowing up. You deserve it with all the work and passion you put into these
My first shiny was a shiny octillary in pearl. I cant remember catching him as i was 7 years old and probably didnt even know what shinys were but i found him in my box a while ago. It has my name as OT so definitely mine. Pretty cool i think
The rarest shiny Pokemon is always the one you're looking for in random encounters because I always seem to get everything but my target LONG before I ever get my target if I don't eventually give up on finding it, lol!
Statistically, no 2 people have identical shiny spinda
It wasn't shiny, but I DID catch a Safari Zone Dragonair in a single ball! Still amazed about it.
maybe not as rare as either of these mentioned, but i like the 1% level 9-12 SOS Salamence from the 1% Bagon encounter only on route 3. sure the odds are up to 1/256 per shiny, but it's still a 1/10k encounter before shininess is factored in (:
Awesome video Nils! I didn't even know this was a spawn until a couple of weeks ago and it's so cool to hear more people talking about it!
Going into the video I reckon gen 3 Feebas if we're only going by pokemon obtainable in one game or the egg phione (or manaphy? I always mix it up) you can trade from Ranger to a mainline game
I've been shining hunting technically since the day gold and silver came out because I traded a Charmander from Pokemon Red to Pokemon Gold and it came out purple I was confused for 2 weeks until people really figured out what they were and that you just got to walk around a bunch and you'll eventually run into them. Edit so im the longest shiny hunter ever
Out on a limb but I’d think the generation 1 transfer to gen 2 that become shiny are the super rare. Lucky you catch it lucky you keep it and lucky you transfer it up generations and then it could or couldn’t be shiny. Insane.
Edit: and now thinking on this logic how can we even determine the odds of gen 1 shiny it’s prob way higher then 1:8192
I DO have an emerald cartridge and a lot of free time right now... But also I don't usually have good luck.
About the final speech, if this video blows up and everyone starts hunting octilery it will not be the rarest anymore, right?
I'm not sure if they could be shiny, but I'd say the hardest are the Baton Pass Farfetch'd and Earthquake Gligar gift Pokemon from Stadium 2, just because of the effort it takes. Farfetch'd, you have to beat every Cup, both Gym Leader Castles, as well as Silver in Round 1. Gligar, you have to beat every Cup, both Gym Leader Castles, and Silver in both Rounds 1 and 2
Amazing video, having a rare shiny feels so good, my rarest shiny is probably my shiny Vespiquen from the Big Catching Contest
What about that wild level 100 Magikarp? I think it was in Black/White but not sure, it's been a min and I gave up hunting him. But the Magikarp was found via fishing and each Pokemon species has a percentage chance of being fished up. Magikarp has 2 separate catch chances, one is like 55% and is common as all get out. The other Magikarp listing has a 1% chance. And this 1% chance Magikarp can be caught at any level up to the max level 100. So essentially you looking at a 1/100 to get the right Magikarp pool on top of another 1/100 chance that it'll pop at level 100. Meaning, you have a 1/10,000 chance to even encounter him, nevermind being shiny. But if you have the shiny charm, you have a 1/20,480,000 chance of finding him. No shiny charm, then 1/40,960,000.
Yes! The level 100 magikarp! Check the video I just uploaded! :)
Its there
theoretically getting any shiny spinda with a specific pattern is next to impossible. I dont know the numbers but from what I remember probably every shiny spinda is completley unique, and there are many that have never been found
there are ~4 billion unique spinda pattern combinations, so finding the intended shiny spinda is rather rare.
unless you are playing in emerald with an early enough shiny frame so that you can hit it again consistently, you could get several identical shiny spinda.
Im trying to get enough resolve to continue my hunt for a shiny Ralts on emerald and my god, even with the repel trick I've already got 5 shinys that arent Ralts.
I didnt even knew we could find seedots on emerald so early until I started this hunt and honestly, I wouldnt mind getting a shiny of that thing, its way rarer to encounter than Ralts with the repel trick and it has a sick red color too(my fav).
for me the rarest has to be manaphy or jirachi, because the odds of finding a copy of Ranger or Channel that still has the manaphy/jirachi in it is extremely low. and even if you do find a copy, it'll cost you hundreds. the paywall is just so insane
I bought Ranger when it came out and was so happy to finally beat it and get that stupid egg
Very well done, this needs more views. BOOST THE ALGORITHM!!
I think paldea has a rare hunt. A shiny wild arctibax from that one small cave in Glaseado Mountain, with no sandwich boosts of course. The cave is really glitchy so pokemon can spawn in the walls. Wild arctibax are also timid and would run away from you if you approach them, so if one were to spawn in the wall it can run off the map.
Good video. Definitely for your future videos. Do not have the music this loud. It was very overwhelming.
In your eyes it is the rarest, and you've got some damn beautiful eyes bro
To me, the rarest shiny is a full odds shiny authentic sinistea from the Glimwood Tangle (1% encounter rate) with the following attributes:
Rare mark: 1/1,000
Star sparkles: 1/4,096
Pokerus: 1/21,845
1/4,096 x 1/4,096 x 1/100 x 1/1,000 x 1/21,845 = 1/36,649,828,352,000,000 or 1 in 36.6 quadrillion
No one will ever find this shiny pokemon.
i think attributes apart from the pokemon's form (pokerus, marks, etc.) arent really considered to be part of the rarest shiny pokemon competition because it allows these insane unattainable odds and the pokemon this video set out to find is meant to be a combination of all of these attributes (not just rarity, but reset time, accessibility, etc.) and combining those into something actually attainable.
Shiny Gyarados, obviously. Didn’t need to watch a video to know that one.
For real tho, very entertaining! Good job 😊
My mind went to the Extreme Speed Zigzagoon.