Oregon 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2024
- In the NCA5 outlook for Oregon we issue our first battle cry, recognizing those who choose to fight for the soil of the Willamette Valley. Their work will matter to us all, as the information we can gather from the NCA5 shows Oregon facing an extraordinary level of change. Only the work we do on the ground can protect Oregon's precious soil. If the soil of Oregon is allowed to be exposed and uncared for during the rapid landscape transformation ahead, we could see a terrible dust bowl emerge.
The dust bowl of the 1930's was a preventable disaster. It hasn't happened again. We could stop a new dust bowl from rising out of Oregon.
It's worth noting, there are gems in Oregon, too. I'm gonna get you all the information you need to understand Oregon's outlook at 2C. Bunch of resources below:
Here's a link to the NCA5:
nca2023.globalchange.gov/
To Dustin's Toolset:
public.tableau.com/app/profil...
Oregon Conservation Districts:
www.oacd.org/regions-and-dire...
High Desert Partnership:
highdesertpartnership.org/
The NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer:
coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr
Reasonable Prep Video:
• Thinking about 2024: W...
Join our Discord:
/ discord - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Solidarity from a Canadian comrade. Thank you for continuing to put out this info! It’s so much more important and imminent than 99% of people realize.
Thank you. I was worried it would be bad. However bad does not mean impossible to adapt to. I know my family will be staying here. I know I will keep trying my best, and hopefully my community will join me. We live in historic times. Will have to get in the mountains and forests with my kiddos before they lose the ability.
I've been mourning the losses from human activities for a few years now. It is a part of taking action. Understanding, accepting, feeling, moving with the change. I feel you have given me permission to grieve for my beloved forests now, which is something I didn't allow myself to do. Sure, I knew the fires would be getting worse, but I was trying to keep the mystical idea that this place would be spared the drastic change. I was wrong, and that is ok. I can cry and feel and then keep acting. We can do this.
@Reichukey you are sharing deep emotional wisdom here. You and people like you are at the center of the circle of this grief. But I hope you feel I share your grief, and so do so many others here.
What you say, that grief is a necessary part of action, is absolutely true. It is better that we look & that we feel, because otherwise we can't move forward. And we need you to be able to act. The Willamette Valley is the most critical action balance point I have seen so far in all my research of these updated projections. Holding this soil is a critical potential tipping point.
As a native Oregonian, I appreciate this video so much! I grew up in the Willamette Valley and currently live in the eastern Columbia River Gorge- the change has been extremely evident in the last decade in both areas. We reached 118° in the gorge in 2021, I cannot imagine living in that range every year. Many people in Oregon do not have air conditioning because we have not had to deal with extreme temps like much of the south does. Thank you for your hard work sharing this with us!
@osumoose thank you for these ground notes. 118 is a scary number anywhere- thinking of it in terms of deviation from the norm, that is just astonishing and terrifying.
Thank you for updating us on OR
@Gold753 appreciate the support- and you are welcome, I'm sorry it's a rough one.
Thank you for your important work. The Willamette Valley.is a precious growing region. Do whatever we can...
Native Oregonian here - lived in The Land of the Long Grasses (central Willamette Valley) all my life. I've lived in dozens of homes/apartments, but never one with air conditioning. Survived wildfire seasons with wind-blown ash, and week of ~113F a couple years back in an uninsulated, unconditioned old house (have since developed a lot more heat-resilience). I have neighbors I helped move in, who are only here because they were displaced by wildfires in years prior.
I've been skillmaxxing, digging in and building resilience since I became an independent adult. From rainwater harvesting and planting trees, to mulching and seed-bombing with locally native wildflower seeds... It won't be easy, it won't be pain-free, but we'll get it done!
@nathanchristopher8585 let me tell you, I am moved by what you wrote here. These are the skills and attitudes that we need in this time of change. I believe that we can get the word out, and you all are the right people to rise to this challenge. If there's any way it can be done, you all will get it done.
When I saw this level of change, I had an unusual gut feeling. Kind of a whack, like a salmon to the head. How can I say it? This looks really rough from all the figures. But the land wants people to stay. Not to abandon the land in this time of change. It's different in Arizona. There, it would be better if there were less people there. Most people there are not people living with the desert. But your land needs her people.
This tracks with my experience in S Willamette valley for 25 years. As water vapor increases with temps so does the moisture deficit in soil. More low humidity windy days... May usually quite rainy and very little. As storms move in it's been like there is a bubble over large part of Oregon the past few years and forecasts often over project rain totals. Glad I found you on environmental coffee house
The best information. Thank you.
@MB-pm7jx you are welcome.
This feels like a good place to express my appreciation to all the people involved in the process on these state level outlooks.
Most of the contemporary state level outlooks are fact-checked by two volunteers, as well as a person who has ground experience with the state. Additional volunteers help check tone & depth of information. This Oregon video went through several rounds of review, I think we're talking about a team of 10.
I am enduring proud of and grateful for the AR community, and the active volunteer contributions to this work.
As someone who is a disabled person in poverty in Portland, this is troubling selfishly as I don't have that much mobility in a moving back to Washington kind of way. Regardless, part of me thinks I should look towards moving to the coast or up north if I can, which has always been a hope despite this shit. Getting social security may help me be more mobile in this way, maybe not. We'll see what's in store, but this forecast is dire indeed; I didn't realize that Oregon could have a lot of desertification. I thought that'd be mostly a plains thing, but now that I'm writing, I realize the Valley is a prairie and savanna.
The thing that makes me wince, is that counties' farmlands south of Portland metro grow grass seed. How sustainable are their practices? The Willamette Valley is a grassland and the native tribes like the Kalapuya did controlled burns for millennia- which grass seed producers do too but probably not as well especially more disconnected from the flood plain and lack of biodiversity. This is particularly troubling for me around this because most of the Willamette Valley is privately owned (like 96% of farmland in the WV) by large monocrop grass seed producers who might be less interested in long-term sustainability and more interested in short term profitability. So I hope that with the very real possibility of desertification they'll be scared into not destroying their own properties, industry and the entire eco region.
Actions for local governments is to try to switch water systems to rely less on snow melt water and more rain capture. It also looks like we need to get local governments to pressure or incentivize soil protection by these large industrial farms. Getting the forestry services to start culling trees more diligently. I hope we can put ourselves together enough for this; I hope that the pnw's dedication to being ecologically conscious doesn't wane in our dire time of need of such galvanizing pride.
Thanks for your work!
Wishing you all the best- it's such a hard situation. But, this is good news- I am hearing a lot of water people in your regions are VERY aware of these hydrological shifts and using that in civic planning. I believe your region can activate if people can understand what's coming.
Thanks!
@osumoose I really appreciate the support, thank you
I live in the southern Willamette Valley and I love it here, I would hate to have to leave. I do think the communities here do work together very well and there’s hope in that for me, I think (hope) more egalitarian areas might have increased adaptability to climate change. A lot of places here don’t have A/C and last August were had several days in the 100s and it was very rough. I am concerned about that although we had a heat wave in 2022 in Ohio where I used to live that caused the city to cycle power around in areas so we had power only during our neighborhood’s turns and honestly that was worse, it was nearly 100f* and humid, and having A/C didn’t matter. Anyways, thank you for your content!
@benjaminsemons4731 the conditions projected are changed to such a degree it's a hard thing to face, but you bring up an important point to emphasize- they look survivable.
This is a hard outlook. But there are a few places, even in the US, that don't look all that survivable. People who are committed to this area could build something here.
Algo boost!
All native talk green meadows on the property I Steward chop & drop Compost & walk it down been working well last 8 years. S. OR BLM back yard Hills , Thank You for the Information.
@nutbagus nice- must be great to see change over an 8 year frame, that's some good soil building time
dang you even went outside to break us Oregonians the bad news lol
@jakew1362 I felt like you at least deserved to hear some birds or something!
@@AmericanResiliency so if you had to choose between Willamette Valley and Olympic Peninsula in WA?
@@jakew1362 this isn't a climate outlook based answer, this just my personal throw-down. Willamette Valley is cool but I love the Olympic Peninsula. Even if it lights on fire, Olympic Peninsula is my beloved place in the region. Fantasized about going to the Hoh since I was 8, made it there at 36, super religious-type experience.
You've done a great job on a fine channel. I have a quick question. Are those glass floats in the background?
@B.Duncan, thank you. Those are old blown glass paperweights- I look for them at estate sales, I think they're cool.
We run a small farm in the Willamette valley just south of the Washington border. Practicing soil conservation, regenerative pastures, planting trees. Do you know of a resource that we can use for projected water table drops? Currently we are debating putting in a well since we are on municipal water.
@martinkronberg5424 the work you are doing is so important, thank you for looking to our future. Have you spoken with anyone at Oregon GIS? I am putting their contact page below. These are the folks who would be able to tell you the most up-to-date projections on that topic. I find that the people at GIS are usually very helpful & give a straight answer. If you end up needing another lead, please let me know.
www.usgs.gov/centers/oregon-water-science-center/connect
I live in this area. If you need a volunteer to do anything let me know. I would love to get more connected to communities and people that are taking action.
@@Reichukey are you on the Discord? Or email me- ar@americanresiliency.org. There are quite a few people on the channel in that area. If you want to take the lead I bet there are people who would be interested in a ground meetup.
@@AmericanResiliency I will set up an account and get joined up! Thank you for the reminder that it exists!!
@@AmericanResiliency The discord link in the description is saying its expired. Could you share another invite link? Thanks!
I moved from Chicagoland to Portland. Now I’m thinking about moving to the northwoods of Wisconsin.
@bensanders5681 when I was up in Wisconsin this spring I cried when I got into the healthy pine forest. I had almost forgotten how green and lovely a healthy pine forest can be. Pine forest in Wisconsin looks good starting pretty far south in the state, surprisingly far south. People are gonna move there, let's hope they are people who want to love and protect the land.
Mother of god. we're in the endgame.
@chrisw443 with living things, I resist the urge to call it early. But we sure are in a bad place- even in '21, I would never have expected to be seeing the changes or earth system readings we are seeing now.
Are there charts that forecast atmospheric river, and extreme storm deluges? I am just shooting from the hip here from my Texas perspective but hurricane Harvey (according to Wikipedia) dropped 30-60 inches of water across the Houston area and I fear drought and flood cycles are hidden in the precipitation forecasts. Is that pattern a monsoon season or something different? It has been a long time since I took meteorology 101.
@BenHuttash here's what we know about those- and that's a great insight. The atmospheric river situation is going to get crazy. They're expected to regularly hose as far south as LA, to be more frequent, intense, and irregular. And that's all we've got on that, so, that's ominous and lets us know the whole west coast needs to be a) ready for water storage and b)ready for sudden flooding.
In the NCA5, look at figure 2.12. That's your deluge outlook, and it's a powerful figure. It's got a lot of layers of data woven together. Take a look- just look at a small piece of the country first, across the three maps. I think about making a video about just this figure, I learn more from it every time I study it.
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you, I will look at that figure and try to interpret it. I look forward to that video and also look forward to seeing how close my insights are to yours. I am a former geography student who went general studies. I took enough earth science classes that it forever changed how I see our world but am very solidly not an expert and only have enough knowledge to be dangerous 😝.
I would be very interested to talk about this with you. Especially if you have some differences in interpretation - that kinda conflict deepens understanding.
@@AmericanResiliency I am going to info dump my ambitions on you. I am a 38 year old father of a 10 year old daughter who got a job a the Texas women’s university. Through tuition assistance and Pell grants school is free for me. I went to the other university in my town, University of North Texas, earning over 100 credit hours towards a geography degree but dropped out. My plan is to get an MBA and work my way into a decision making position at TWU and climate harden this place. A major concern I have developed from years of experience from working with trades people is that there is a bias against the maintenance of green infrastructure by the people who are charged with its maintenance. As soon as something goes wrong with a solar hot water heater or a heat or a rain water collection system or an electric work vehicle it gets thrown out and replaced with inefficient but more familiar legacy hardware. My theory is that people who don’t believe we are effecting the chemistry of our atmosphere, land and oceans have a subconscious bias that affects their ability to maintain and operate green technologies. It isn’t a sabotage event, it is more of letting these technologies die as a form of confirmation bias to prove their beliefs right. I want to support progress by ensuring the maintenance of green initiatives by enforcing the maintenance and repair of them. I think this is the most impactful thing I can do with my life at this age and current skill sets. Then after my MBA I want to go back to UNT and see what it takes to turn those credits into a environmental science degree. This summer I will complete my general studies degree, maybe two more years for an MBA, a couple semesters for an environmental science and then maybe more education. Free degrees is alright with me, i feel so fortunate to have this opportunity. I am not sure if sustainability compliance or facilities director has the most impact on actual emissions reduction yet, i plan to figure that out. One day I would like to make presentations similar to the ones you produce for us here on TH-cam directly to the chancellor of my university.
Don't worry. We are about to go back into a cooler phase.
fingers crossed for a long la nina
I wonderhow these different factors will interwct with eachother throughout the year. I expect more hot days than projected and less rain, plus im sure losing the ice pack on some mountains will have a wide ranging of effects this year.
Despite this it seems beyond foolish to position this as a "battle" or "fight". Obscuring the actions were actually taking to try and prevent disaster. We are planting, and caring for the plants that are already there. Why the need to try and make that sound heroic or like we're warriors for doing so?
I think those actions should be seen as heroic, and that the determination it will take to stay with the land through this level of projected change is something that has real emotional weight. This is a struggle that we could lose.
The unfortunate reality is that the future is bleak for many regions and bad news doesn't get better with time. Even those in the worse areas in the US are fortunate compared to many regions as you have options. I know money can be an issue, but there are still possibilities. In some countries, there's really no hope for the future. Be thankful for what we have.
Stop here if you don't care for bad news. I don't blame you...
Global news is bleak with floods, fires, and mass die-offs across continents and oceans already occurring. I could cite many of them, but it really is depressing. We don't hear much about that in the US...media would prefer everyone remain distracted. Acting sooner rather than later would be a seriously good idea. If you lack money, build a community...do whatever you can.
@Mike80528 I don't "
Is any place on earth getting better or is it just a matter of less bad?
@oogrooq kinda depends on your perspective. Like, if you're a shrub, this is a great time to be in Alaska. Shrubs are taking over a ton of new ground.
More seriously, I was just drafting out North Dakota and I think many people would say it looks like North Dakota is getting nicer, from a human & conventional ag perspective. There are many places that, although they are changing, the change has some positives.
On the whole, globally, this is going to be an extremely difficult era for humanity and many other living things.
Hi Emily!
This is Maryam (PNW). Thank you for informing us of these changes. Looks like most of the PNW will experience big changes. Do you know why the Northwestern (U.S.) seems so much worse than the Northeastern (U.S.)?
Do you think a changing of the Poles is taking place?
Thank you again for being so informative.
Maryam
@@smithsmith9510 hey Maryam! So I haven't yet done videos for most of the northeast with the NCA5 datasets. There are some areas that look very strong near the coasts. Inland New York, much of Pennsylvania (coming out June 6 or 13, I'm not sure yet), they look very good. But the northeast coast itself, from Delaware to New Hampshire, I'm pretty sure it's gonna be a huge mess. Like, real bad. I haven't done the area yet because honestly I'm waiting a minute to see if we get any more weird earthquakes out of NY/NJ in the next couple months.
So, Washington not so bad, just based on an artificial line at the Oregon/Washington border. Just because there is less rainfall/snowpack and maybe we should go elsewhere? I do think that the forests are mismanaged, no coordinated effort between federal/state/private forest land, a lot of climate change deniers making bad decisions, and a state run by politicians too concerned with gender politics and political correctness. Most of the wildfires are human caused and preventable with proactive rather than reactive means.
@bonnieprather610 it's not an artificial line- there's something really going on there in terms of a geographic cline, the precipitation patterns look like they're changing related to that geographic cline. The cline midpoint is right around the Washington/Oregon border and the conditions do look a bit different north or south of it.
Agreed that coordinated forest management & proactive fire resilience are critical.