Outlook Update: 2024-2028 Global Temp & Precipitation Trends
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 มิ.ย. 2024
- Some cool new info for you here, source is the World Meteorological Organization. Let's get behind the headlines & see what's really being said here about the projected warming from 2024-2028.
Here's the press release:
wmo.int/news/media-centre/glo...
Here's a link to the report itself:
wmo.int/publication-series/wm...
And to the Copernicus Institute's Monthly Bulletin:
climate.copernicus.eu/climate...
Discord Invite: / discord - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
2:40 "it's time to get weird"
@davidwatson7604 I made a big weird lifestyle change with my family in 2020- lower consumption, lower income. Less everything except living things. Ended up with way more living things! This is my fifth growing season here and the increase in biodiversity & abundance is really beautiful.
I feel like anyone out there who has been contemplating a lifestyle change but you're worried about your 401k, you're worried about normal economy things, normal job things, I want to encourage you. If you have any capacity to do so, make the jump! The best time to make a big change is now.
I was Miss Weird in 1984. 😂🎉🫠
The hurricane season will tell me alot. The lack of information out there is astounding , blaming higher insurance costs in the south on politics seems to be the misinformation talking point. Many will be used and unprepared.
4-6 inches of rain per hour in south Florida today
@tombolin7168 this hurricane seasons feels high stakes, like this is the one that could break the home insurance industry.
That's an interesting misinformation talking point- all politics, huh? Seems like some people will look at anything other than what's in front of them.
That rain in south Florida today is so beyond what the infrastructure can handle.
Report was def an interesting read
@2DayGamer I like the variety of statistical models they use- & some new visualization styles for me
We have been over 1.7ºC GTA for 9 months. In November 2023 we crossed 2ºC GTA on the 17th and 18th.
Hopium is a helluva drug.
We were over 2C in February for a few days as well. This report- once you get past the press release- gives information about rolling averages projected towards '28
@@AmericanResiliency Thanks so much for your work!!
It's really scandalous that these climate 'experts' aren't up to date.
@@TTTzzzz I'm at the point where I really don't get it. I try to watch my tendency to be a little paranoid... but it's harder and harder for me not to read these kinds of press releases and similar mainstream news articles as deliberate misinformation.
@@kevinshanholtzer Hi Kevin!
Greeting Emily!
This is Maryam (PNW). Thank you for interpreting these reports and weather changes. I do believe using the word “temporarily” in this report is misleading. Why do you think 2c is coming upon us so quickly as opposed to years into the future as originally predicted?
@smithsmith9510 I keep trying to understand that myself.
There are many possible explanations I'm hearing, from the unintentional "unmasking" of warming by changing the fuel mix in international shipping, to the release of so much atmospheric pollution when the Nord Stream pipeline was bombed at the end of 22... I personally think we did not understand the ocean well enough in our modeling.
It is a very alarming time to be staying alert about these issues. The changes we're seeing are big, and while many scientists are working to understand what's going on, we just don't fully understand it. Seems like a good time to stop seeing how far we can push the system & try to take more steps in the right direction.
Great report Dr.Emily thank you!! apparently the more crazy El Ninos we have the more that temps will climb and the more neutral ENSOs we have those will be leveling out years..Hard to say which we will have more of but because of those rising ocean temps i would say More El Ninos..Either way we need to get ready as 1.9 is entirely possible by 2029 ish and 2.0 is likely by 2035 which would be 15 year's earlier then scientists best guesses. We both know that a 2.0 scenario is going to be absolutely unbelievable for those not prepared for it..But no stopping that train..
@michaelschiessl8357 if you look at the sea surface temperature by year, there's a sharp change after the last El Nino. Like you say, looks like jumps & then a level period- but no real step down. And have heard a lot of voices coming together on the 2035 timeline.
I tell you, I find it hard to imagine what things will be like globally, in so many ways, by 2035. This does feel like an important window for preparation- public awareness of the degree of change is still quite low, in good part because of the sort of massaged information in the press release shared here.
@@AmericanResiliency yes Emily it's awfully hard to wrap our minds around what things will be like in a 2 degree world..Maybe we will see 2 extremes as far as knowledge and info goes...the folks that don't know or don't believe it until it's actually in their face .And the folks who have seen the writing on the wall and have some knowledge and are listening to what the pre- eminent science community has been warning about for years..Based on the conversations I've has with family and friends there will be alot of shock and surprise coming in their futures and maybe they will say why didn't we listen and adopt at that time..I see this as the ultimate game of adoptation...Who can take this info and adopt and who does not!!
This makes me consider insulating my roof better if I can. It will be expensive but probably worth it.
But a bigger concern is worldwide crop failures...
@nathanbigler an architect recommended this book recently, you might like it too:
www.amazon.com/Passive-Annual-Heat-Storage-Improving/dp/0615905889
There's some info in here on earth tubes, which I never heard of before- could be a passive way to reduce humidity in the home.
The potential for worldwide crop failure is serious. There are many parts of the world and many crops that are particularly vulnerable... globally, there are so many people who live in net food importing countries. Many people are experiencing very serious pressures from the rising costs already...
Moving towards diverse, more localized food systems, at least it's a way of improving local resilience.
Algo boost!
@davidwatson7604 appreciate you!
Where is the link to the discord?
Oh dang! I'll get that in the description, & here you go: discord.gg/9JyV8dQx
😊
@bluebambue, this is my favorite new resource I've come across in quite a while!
Yikes!
It's definitely not great- but, could be worse
@@AmericanResiliency i just hate how soon it could be. I am still trying to graduate and become useful in the fight for adaptation.
@BenHuttash we just gotta take one step at a time- you're going to be coming out of your studies at a time when adaptation work is very important
Yeah yikes is right..we have a little time to prepare for it..Everyone needs to get ready!
If 2C comes at or near 2030, does that mean your 2050 2C projections will occur 20 years earlier? I would think it means, the process would speed up and 2050 projectios may occur perhaps 10 years earlier. Of course, I have already thrown out my morning tea leaves and my crystal ball is in the shop for repairs
@couerleroi1 this is a great clarifying question. In my older material I talk about 2050. Since February of 24 I've switched towards talking about 2C. Before the 23-24 jump, the consensus was we were looking at 2C around 2050. There is no strong consensus on what happened- this is an area of active freaking out by science and policy people worldwide, with new info continuing to come in. The report in this video is the best short-term work the AR community has found that is using and responding to the anomaly information.
Anyway, that's a long winded answer, but hopefully it helps give you useful background. Many scientists are now saying we're likely to hit 2C as an average by 2035, 2040. I tell friends they should get where they want to live within the next 3 years.
It's worth noting, too - since this jump, we are in a situation where Everyone has less certainty. The Earth is responding in ways science does not fully understand. I try and bring the best science I can to the table.... But part of being honest with that is admitting, we're in a weird situation
I think we're going to be alright.
After most of the Greenland icesheet melts the A.M.O.C will speed back up faster than we ever seen it go before. Bringing more heat to the Artic ocean.
@DanielWatson-vv7cd our current rate of change is uncharted territory- a correction mechanism like that would be a heck of a thing to experience! I figure, best to take in what information we can, try to respond, & stay flexible in our thinking.