Japan is the favorite to win. They are probably happy today because of the team announcement. My search on their difficulty. Daiki Hashimoto: 6.2 6.4 5.7 (off in TF) 5.6 6.3 (off in TF) 6.7 Shinnosuke Oka: 5.9 6.0 (off in TF) 5.9 5.2 (off in TF) 6.5 5.9 Dr. Kazuma Kaya: 5.7 (off in TF) 6.3 5.8 5.6 (off in TF) 6.3 5.8 (off in TF) Takaaki Sugino: 5.9 6.9 (will downgrade in TF) 5.3 (off in TF) 5.6 5.7 (off in TF) 6.6 Wataru Tanigawa: 5.9 (off in TF) 5.7 (off in TF) 6 6 6.3 5.7 (off in TF)
@@gymjam2024 I also have the intended difficulty of the Chinese team. They leave the national AA champ at home, bring two specialists (one of them can only contribute one event) to the team.
@@gymjam2024 Zhang Boheng: 6.1 6 (off in TF) 6.1 5.6 6.4 6.4 Sun Wei: 5.5 6.2 5.9 (off in TF) 5.6 6.1 (off in TF) 6.1 Xiao Ruoteng: 5.8 5.9 5.7 (off in TF) 5.6 6 5.8 Zou Jingyuan: X 5.9-6.5 6.4 X 6.6-6.9 X Liu Yang: X X 6.4 5.2 (off in TF) X X The Chinese team doesn't disclose the trial result because of "not letting other teams to study or research".
Am a huge Donnell fan and really think he deserves to go to the Olympics. But I also think they will probably choose Asher. I hope I’m wrong. Thx for this video ❤
The men’s team selection is not like the women’s team, there is very little discretion involved. Looking at the criteria they heavily emphasize highest scoring team and look at all four scores from trials and nationals which is why Asher and Curran are basically already eliminated. Brody, Fred, and Khoi will go barring a major meltdown. Yul has a very strong chance especially if he hits PBars for 15.3+ at least once. Stephen is the one who controls his own destiny because if he hits pommels for 15+ both days there is no one who will end up on a higher scoring team than him using either of the two criteria they’re looking at (average of all four scores or drop the low score and average the top 3). Which will mean he is locked into the team. After Stephen, Paul looks to have the next best shot at the team because of his margin on floor over Khoi and on vault over Yul. But he cannot afford another fall on either event (or high bar). Donnell also has a decent chance but he really needs to get a good 14.8+ score in for his vault, otherwise he doesn’t add enough on that event. Shane has a small chance but basically would require misses from Stephen and Paul. They basically don’t care at all in the criteria that Stephen has no other events as long as he is on the highest scoring team using both calculation methods.
It's a bummer because the USA MAG team doesn't take pacing into consideration. My ideal 5th member would be someone who can cover at least 3 team events, good 5.6+ vault and have some EF potential. Stephen is already on the highest scoring team in a row. Fred, Khoi, Yul helped Stephen a lot by flopping on PH. If they flop again and Stephen hits on PH at trial, Stephen is almost locked by the automatic program. But that is too risky for a team medal. Stephen will give you a 15 or 12 at possibly a 50% chance under TF.
@@gymjam2024 If the top 3 average (3 nights, drop 1 night) and top 4 average (4 nights) highest team are the same, there is no discretion and this will automatically be the Olympic team. It's trending Stephen because Fred, Khoi, Yul flopped on day 1 / 2. He's on the same highest scoring team both nights.
@@gymjam2024 yeah, it's very silly in my opinion especially with Brody looking so fragile but that's what it seems they're going for. Personally I like the team with Paul (currently the second highest scoring team) because it sits Brody from VT/FX in team finals. It would be terrible if he aggravates his injury there and then has to pull out of high bar finals
I agree not taking Stephen, even though the automatic program is in his favor. Curran has the highest medal chance among other contenders, but he already bombed on high bar and vault on day 1. My 5th member is either Donnell (RSG vault being lowballed) or Paul (in the 2nd highest scoring team). However, the program is still favoring Stephen unless the top 4 turn up on pommel horse.
@@gymjam2024 Totally! Donnell's vault will be at least 14.8-15 internationally. Top teams bring at least 5.6 5.6 5.6 vaults to the table. Having 5.2 5.2 5.6 vaults is almost equivalent to counting a fall. Vault scores are very stable and E scores don't differentiate as much as those from the US domestic judges.
@@gymjam2024 Common sense is taking the team that has highest medal chance. That means Stephen. He adds by far the most to the team score and has individual medal chance. Paul is next in line if he hits his key events. Donnell and Asher are unlikely, their vaults don't score well with new judging standards. They add less to the team even if those vaults were getting 15.
@@Zuranthium The Team got Bronze at Worlds last year without Stephen. If you take him and he flops in finals, you lose 2 or 3 routines elsewhere while potentially get the same or worse result than 2023 Worlds.
@@gymjam2024 ANYONE can flop on Pommel. Someone has to go up on the event. A flop from someone else scores even lower. It doesn't matter the team got Bronze without him last year, he adds more and the best team needs to be chosen.
I think that Paul Juda has a high chance of making the Olympic Team because he is part of the second highest team. Also, Paul Juda plans to upgrade some of his apparatuses for Olympic Trials. Also, I think that Donnell has a better shot than Asher to make the Olympic Team because Donnell has done better vaults and rings than Asher.
Japan is the favorite to win. They are probably happy today because of the team announcement. My search on their difficulty.
Daiki Hashimoto:
6.2
6.4
5.7 (off in TF)
5.6
6.3 (off in TF)
6.7
Shinnosuke Oka:
5.9
6.0 (off in TF)
5.9
5.2 (off in TF)
6.5
5.9
Dr. Kazuma Kaya:
5.7 (off in TF)
6.3
5.8
5.6 (off in TF)
6.3
5.8 (off in TF)
Takaaki Sugino:
5.9
6.9 (will downgrade in TF)
5.3 (off in TF)
5.6
5.7 (off in TF)
6.6
Wataru Tanigawa:
5.9 (off in TF)
5.7 (off in TF)
6
6
6.3
5.7 (off in TF)
Thank you for this! Now I have to do some digging. I appreciate them for announcing their team so early.
@@gymjam2024 I also have the intended difficulty of the Chinese team. They leave the national AA champ at home, bring two specialists (one of them can only contribute one event) to the team.
@@gymjam2024
Zhang Boheng:
6.1
6 (off in TF)
6.1
5.6
6.4
6.4
Sun Wei:
5.5
6.2
5.9 (off in TF)
5.6
6.1 (off in TF)
6.1
Xiao Ruoteng:
5.8
5.9
5.7 (off in TF)
5.6
6
5.8
Zou Jingyuan:
X
5.9-6.5
6.4
X
6.6-6.9
X
Liu Yang:
X
X
6.4
5.2 (off in TF)
X
X
The Chinese team doesn't disclose the trial result because of "not letting other teams to study or research".
@@gymjam2024 TH-cam eats my comment, but I listed the intended difficulty. (Sort by -> newest first)
Am a huge Donnell fan and really think he deserves to go to the Olympics. But I also think they will probably choose Asher. I hope I’m wrong. Thx for this video ❤
❤❤
The men’s team selection is not like the women’s team, there is very little discretion involved. Looking at the criteria they heavily emphasize highest scoring team and look at all four scores from trials and nationals which is why Asher and Curran are basically already eliminated.
Brody, Fred, and Khoi will go barring a major meltdown. Yul has a very strong chance especially if he hits PBars for 15.3+ at least once. Stephen is the one who controls his own destiny because if he hits pommels for 15+ both days there is no one who will end up on a higher scoring team than him using either of the two criteria they’re looking at (average of all four scores or drop the low score and average the top 3). Which will mean he is locked into the team.
After Stephen, Paul looks to have the next best shot at the team because of his margin on floor over Khoi and on vault over Yul. But he cannot afford another fall on either event (or high bar).
Donnell also has a decent chance but he really needs to get a good 14.8+ score in for his vault, otherwise he doesn’t add enough on that event.
Shane has a small chance but basically would require misses from Stephen and Paul.
They basically don’t care at all in the criteria that Stephen has no other events as long as he is on the highest scoring team using both calculation methods.
It's a bummer because the USA MAG team doesn't take pacing into consideration. My ideal 5th member would be someone who can cover at least 3 team events, good 5.6+ vault and have some EF potential.
Stephen is already on the highest scoring team in a row. Fred, Khoi, Yul helped Stephen a lot by flopping on PH. If they flop again and Stephen hits on PH at trial, Stephen is almost locked by the automatic program. But that is too risky for a team medal. Stephen will give you a 15 or 12 at possibly a 50% chance under TF.
Thank you for this! So basically, they don't deviate from this "program" they use correct?
@@gymjam2024 If the top 3 average (3 nights, drop 1 night) and top 4 average (4 nights) highest team are the same, there is no discretion and this will automatically be the Olympic team. It's trending Stephen because Fred, Khoi, Yul flopped on day 1 / 2. He's on the same highest scoring team both nights.
@@gymjam2024 yeah, it's very silly in my opinion especially with Brody looking so fragile but that's what it seems they're going for. Personally I like the team with Paul (currently the second highest scoring team) because it sits Brody from VT/FX in team finals. It would be terrible if he aggravates his injury there and then has to pull out of high bar finals
I agree not taking Stephen, even though the automatic program is in his favor. Curran has the highest medal chance among other contenders, but he already bombed on high bar and vault on day 1. My 5th member is either Donnell (RSG vault being lowballed) or Paul (in the 2nd highest scoring team). However, the program is still favoring Stephen unless the top 4 turn up on pommel horse.
They need to ditch that program and use common sense.
@@gymjam2024 Totally! Donnell's vault will be at least 14.8-15 internationally. Top teams bring at least 5.6 5.6 5.6 vaults to the table. Having 5.2 5.2 5.6 vaults is almost equivalent to counting a fall. Vault scores are very stable and E scores don't differentiate as much as those from the US domestic judges.
@@gymjam2024 Common sense is taking the team that has highest medal chance. That means Stephen. He adds by far the most to the team score and has individual medal chance. Paul is next in line if he hits his key events. Donnell and Asher are unlikely, their vaults don't score well with new judging standards. They add less to the team even if those vaults were getting 15.
@@Zuranthium The Team got Bronze at Worlds last year without Stephen. If you take him and he flops in finals, you lose 2 or 3 routines elsewhere while potentially get the same or worse result than 2023 Worlds.
@@gymjam2024 ANYONE can flop on Pommel. Someone has to go up on the event. A flop from someone else scores even lower. It doesn't matter the team got Bronze without him last year, he adds more and the best team needs to be chosen.
I think that Paul Juda has a high chance of making the Olympic Team because he is part of the second highest team. Also, Paul Juda plans to upgrade some of his apparatuses for Olympic Trials. Also, I think that Donnell has a better shot than Asher to make the Olympic Team because Donnell has done better vaults and rings than Asher.
Which upgrade will Paul bring? I hope it's vault because vault was the one of the keys for team success in 2023.
Agreed
Yes, one of Paul's upgrades is going to be vault.
@@rachelheller1396 👍
Fred. Khoi. Brody. Yul. Donnell or Asher.
Paul has a much better chance than Asher