Is The Bourbon Boom Over?
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I believe the main problem is people are tired of paying for something that is double the cost of their mainstay bourbon, only to find it's not as good and not as readily available. Why chase something that you can't find, when you can get a handle of Wild Turkey 101 that has everything you need for less than $40.
Yeah and watch and see 101 double in the next few years though 😢 Campari is going to ruin the brand.
100% agree with this.
And I’d also add- many of which aren’t as transparent about their history, product, etc. vs a brand like Wild Turkey, old forester, Buffalo trace, Jack Daniels, etc. why do I want to pay $50+ for something that’s just repackaged MGP, doesn’t really disclose this unless you know where to look on a bottle or website, sells on a celebrity name or other item that’s just complete bs to get ‘butts in seats’ so to speak for bottles, when I can buy my every day Jack, BT, Turkey or others for the same or lower prices, that to my pallet at least is just as good if not better than these new brands?
Well, I wouldn’t say WT101 “has everything you need”, because sometimes I need a more complex Bourbon. But it’s a damn good Bourbon and it’s a real bargain.
@@justinafuchs2619 I agree but it has decent proof, some good flavors, and can be found. And can be drank however you please in cocktails or neat or whatever and not feel bad about using it that way.
Do we need 1,000 different bourbons? Especially with the consistent letdowns of gimmick and celebrity bottles.
It was bound to happen. The cream will rise to the top.
I’m all for 1,000s of different bourbons, it’s just everything has had a price hike and not a quality hike
Especially sourced. Nothing wrong with that if done right, like High West.
yes, celeb bottles like Boone's is terrible, esp at 40 some bucks a bottle...even EW black label tastes much better.
Not at the price points that currently are
Another big thing is someone who may have gotten into bourbon let’s say, 2-3 years ago, has compiled a collection of 100+ bottles (or much more than that) and has now realized they have more bourbon that they will ever drink as it is. Plus they’re just tired of chasing bottles
More people should sit down and do the math! Some people will never be able to drink their collection, even if guests help them.
Yup, that's me, just over two years into serious Bourbon collecting and I'll never have to buy another bottle for the rest of my life. Now it's like estate planning, LOL ...which bottles do I slate to open this year.
YES. This is me.
At one Glencairn a day you are looking at 25 bottles a year. So while your collection may last a while, it is not lasting a lifetime unless you are in bad health or are very serious about your collecting.
@@PeteQuad that depends on the person. I find that I don't really drink 365 days/year. And that 50ml pour is pretty generous :) That's a double, so 2 glencairns.
When everything is allocated and special then nothing is. Every bottle now is $65 and up, and with the BS tax in WA state it’s close to $100 minimum. Too pricey to experiment with “maybe” bottles. Plus every store hides the best stuff in the back and holds it for their buddies or marks them up 400%. It’s taken the fun out of hunting.
That why I buy when I'm in Oregon, I got Eagle Rare 10 year, Clyde May and Michter's US #1 for 117.00. In Vancouver washington it would have been over 200.00 if you could find the Eagle Rare.
for real, my local liquor store has a bottle of OF birthday Bourbon for $2,000, I pray they never find their sucker.
Or you have the same 15 people that show up 3hrs early on allocation day. It's a win-less game
For me personally, I bought a lot of bourbon and my shelves are overly stocked right now. Getting into whiskey in general also got me interested in other drinks to explore. On top of all that, I've generally cut down on my alcohol consumption. I love going to the store to see what's available & I want to buy the ones I haven't tried yet, I just can't justify it.
Same exact thing for me. I got so many bottles I'll never drink through on my own, and friends only drop by every so often to share it, they are not as into it. I have cut down purchases by a lot. Barely even 1 bottle per month. And too many are open, so I can't even open many new ones
The FOMO, collector's mentality, and hype is very strong for newer bourbon enthusiasts (me, circa 2021). I have overstock that I need to work through as well and I've been giving some away as gifts. I've also started trying to split 750ml bottles with friends but I think a lot of us are also a bit burnt out/overspent. There will always be more bourbon, and good bourbon.
Yup. I think there's a lot of us who got into this 5-6 years ago and now have 200+ bottles, 50 of them probably LE's and/or allocated. In this economy I can't justify getting every "cool bottle" even if I do find it at or close to msrp. Already passing on ECBP and LBP at $70 and $60.Costco has Bookers $80 and Woodford BP $109, I passed. I've seen so much on the shelf in general that just isn't selling. I'm friends with a local whiskey warehouse (store) manager. He said sales are down 20-30% in the last 3 months Y.O.Y. I think Fred is being optimistic. It usually takes the economic data 18-24 months to catch up with us on main street. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sure Buffalo Trace, Michter's and Brown Forman will be fine. But a mostly NDP like Redwood Empire (especially being in Ca with all that bs) I really fear for. Sorry to be such a downer 😂
Craft distilleries going down the tube. Just look at craft beer! Also, it doesn’t help with the down ridden administration that the economy is in shambles
@@marcwhiskey I could have written the same thing you wrote… I’m in the same boat and I stop watching a lot of the whiskey TH-camrs.
I honestly hope the boom IS over. For decades I could find excellent bourbon at reasonable prices sitting on the shelf. I want that back. The hide and go seek with stupid prices is not attractive to me.
Amen brother. Five years ago, Weller was mid shelf and 25-35 bucks. ER was as easy to find as Beam or Jack. EHTSB was easy to find too.
After a couple years of bourbon hunting most people will have a collection that could last 5 years without buying another bottle. So they slow down random buys and get the regular refills and they will still hunt the BTAC and PvW. On a dark note I stop off at all estate sales now bc those collections ppl post on the bourbon boards don’t dwindle. In 10-15 years I expect to see huge hoarded collections out there.
You described me to a "T". I only buy refills of daily sippers and if I come across a good buy on something more allocated, I'll pick it up.
Yup. I think there's a lot of us who got into this 5-6 years ago and now have 200+ bottles, 50 of them probably LE's and/or allocated. In this economy I can't justify getting every "cool bottle" even if I do find it at or close to msrp. Already passing on ECBP and LBP at $70 and $60.Costco has Bookers $80 and Woodford BP $109, I passed. I've seen so much on the shelf in general that just isn't selling. I'm friends with a local whiskey warehouse (store) manager. He said sales are down 20-30% in the last 3 months Y.O.Y. I think Fred is being optimistic. It usually takes the economic data 18-24 months to catch up with us on main street. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sure Buffalo Trace, Michter's and Brown Forman will be fine. But a mostly NDP like Redwood Empire (especially being in Ca with all that bs) I really fear for. Sorry to be such a downer 😂
This describes me perfectly as well. I have a shelf with 140 or so bottles and it's going to take me years to put a dent in that. I can't keep up with every release, and a couple years of experience has taught me the variance in flavor doesn't usually justify the time spent to find it, the price, nor the space on my already overflowing shelf. I love bourbon but I'm not going to drink several drams a day just to keep some space available for the new hot thing. There are just too many out there these days.
Nailed it. I might have enough for the rest of my life. Only buy 4-8 bottles a year now.
Totally agree, watch those estate sales
At the end of the day, the industry can’t be sustained by 25-year-old guys living in their parents basement and discretionary income.
Guys in their 40s and 50s with families have so many people sticking their hands in their pocket. Even if you’re blessed to have a good job, the cost of living is out of control.
Gosh, I love a profit focus through and with ‘labor and material’ are the Bain of the financier focus mentality.
Funny you think it’s 25 years. It’s mainly you old fucks collecting lmao
100% I find myself spending a lot more on day to day items now and already posses a large stash of bourbon. So priority has shifted for my dollar
@TomSpear 100% can't afford or prioritize fancy bourbon anymore, daycare is a b$t%@ 😂
drink less trash booze@@sam-wham563
I've slowed my buying after only 2 years of hunting. I've completely given up hunting the extremely rare bottles, and I've basically explored most of the "run of the mill" bottles that are available to me. I of course will re-buy the bottles that I enjoy(ie. Bardstown origin series, Makers mark cask strength, etc.). A number of reasons to me include...
1. I have enough bottles to last me at least 2 years
2. I have a family, and thanks to rampant inflation, groceries cost on average 200$ more right now than they did 2 years ago
3. I WILL NOT pay ridiculous secondary prices for a bottle of anything!
There’s also the fact that White oak forests are being depleted across the country with distilleries and lumber companies. There is the White oak initiative conservation law that is being sponsored by Maker’s Mark. We have enough white oak trees to last us 30 years, but then it is gone. White Oak takes almost 50 years to mature. Since bourbon requires NEW oak barrels, companies are depleting the White Oak population and prices of bourbon will skyrocket when my son’s turn 21. They are toddlers now. We have to plant and replenish our Oak population….. or bourbon will be so rare, that most of us will not be able to afford it.
In addition, the tricky part of planting oak trees is that you cannot just create oak farms like you can for pine trees and other varieties. They need to be almost randomly planted and simulate natural surroundings or they don'g grow in a way that creates the density and the genetic makeup that allows them to become barrels.
This comment right here. wish we could really go after the 2nd and 3rd use barrels to get some more variety.
@@jmm8709 mellow corn? I've heard they are a full corn bill using used barrels... "cheap" stuff, but I've heard it has a following. If I can find a bottle, I'll buy it...
I see this as expected market contraction following an explosion in available products. There are honestly too many choices, finished spirits notwithstanding. When the options are overwhelming, customers are going to settle on the ones they like most or are the best bang for the buck. Customers are also becoming wise to the repackaging of sourced products they can get cheaper from the actual distiller. I think we'll see more acquisitions by larger distilleries and some smaller distilleries or "distilleries in name only" folding. There will still be tons of products, and I think continued experimentation with blends and finished spirits. Bourbon isn't going away.
I think there are multiple factors at play here.
1. Expansion and contraction is natural. Expansion gives those with the next best idea an opportunity to prove it. Contraction removes those who couldn't make it work. We've gone too long in expansion mode, it's time to cull the herd.
2. Pricing (this is a big one). I never had an issue buying a bottle based on the story/idea when prices were "reasonable" ($20-$50). Today I see so many brands or bottles I've never heard of with releases selling for $70-$100, it's crazy. I just can't justify taking a flyer on a $90 bottle, when I've been burned multiple times in the past.
3. Somewhat related to pricing, but I believe there is less $ out there to allocate to things like whiskey, especially a very expensive consumable. In early 2020 people were looking for places to spend $ because there were limited outlets open to accept their payments. That isn't the case today. In fact, people might be concerned the in-flow might start to dry up and have started looking for easy/obvious places to cut.
The winners vs losers of this next round will be dictated by how they handled themselves over the past 4-5 years with respect to price and availability. I guess time will tell.
Cheers all!
Yeah, a brand-new label showing up and expecting $75+ for a bottle is nuts, especially when you realize that so many of them are vanity labels filled with someone else's whiskey and not actual distillers. I think people who enjoy whiskey have wised up on this stuff. When I see a new bottle like that, I assume it's a handful of guys with money who heard that bourbon was the next big thing and figured they could make a killing by marking up MGP whiskey 200%.
Your (2) is why I build a purchase list from watching whiskey reviews, and refer to that when I'm at the store. It's extremely rare for me to make an impulse buy, and even then, only for reputable brands.
Yup. I think there's a lot of us who got into this 5-6 years ago and now have 200+ bottles, 50 of them probably LE's and/or allocated. In this economy I can't justify getting every "cool bottle" even if I do find it at or close to msrp. Already passing on ECBP and LBP at $70 and $60.Costco has Bookers $80 and Woodford BP $109, I passed. I've seen so much on the shelf in general that just isn't selling. I'm friends with a local whiskey warehouse (store) manager. He said sales are down 20-30% in the last 3 months Y.O.Y. I think Fred is being optimistic. It usually takes the economic data 18-24 months to catch up with us on main street. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sure Buffalo Trace, Michter's and Brown Forman will be fine. But a mostly NDP like Redwood Empire (especially being in Ca with all that bs) I really fear for. Sorry to be such a downer 😂
I think you’re right.🥃
I'd agree. I feel it's overdone. Tired of it. I've passed on all kinds of stuff that's on the shelf. I think we're heading into a contraction period.
Redwood Empire also has their own distillate.
@@RoyBelluomini Might want to re-read what I said "mostly NDP like Redwood Empire". Sure they might use more of their own distillate now, but I'm looking at the back of my Emerald Giant CS and it says "Distilled in Indiana, Kentucky and California". And I'm a homer, live about 10 minutes from Redwood Empire, love most of what they put out. Cheers!
Right? I used to chase around ECBP and Russell's store picks, but now that I have five or six (or more) of each, I had to ask myself what the heck I was doing and just stop. Heck, even something like Booker's, I have enough bottles of that I just don't grab them anymore.
Although I don’t think American Whiskey is going anywhere, I will say I believe it will follow a similar trajectory as craft beer. There was such a boom, everyone was drinking craft beer and couldn’t wait to try new breweries. Then it softens. Like anything else in modern society our focus turns to something else. That’s not always a bad thing, but it does. With craft brewery’s we saw the smaller ones shutter, mid size sell to conglomerates and the larger more established craft breweries making very good beer have persevered.
The small newer NDPs and distilleries that grew too fast will start to close, we already have seen the mid size craft start to sell, (ie blue run, Penelope, prideful goat, among others), and the bigger, more established brands that didn’t grow too fast, like Driftless Glen here in WI, Sagamore, Middlewest spirits will be just fine.
And like you said, the big boys, the legacy distillers will be just fine.
It’s market correction just like in any industry. Not a bust, just a softening.
And lastly, on the plus side it should help the impending oak shortage.
Sagamore sold to an Italian holding company last year
tell that to Anchor Steam...
I started drinking buffalo trace because it was the cheapest bourbon pour at the bar next to my office. Then all of the sudden I couldn't find it on the shelf, what happened was insane. If this craze dies off and a lot of the increased production hasnt even aged yet, the real bourbon drinkers will be kings in the end.
I think Fred hit it spot on. I've spent enough time figuring out my palate that I know what I like now and I'm not really interested in all these flashy new bottles or trend-blends that popup every week. That said, my mind is always open though and if I happen to have a pour of something new and like it, of course I'll seek it to purchase but I'm not "hunting" anymore, those days are over.
Reading these comments, I gather that this is a serious crowd that knows what they are talking about. It's almost as if they are a little bit fed up with the bourbon trend as it is, but not the bourbon growth (both in quality and options). Discriminating tastes coupled with tighter bourbon budget will result in an increase in quality and a decrease in prices. That's my prediction. Super Minnick Fans Here!!!
Your point about people knowing what they want now and not wasting money on experimental bourbons and/or overpriced young whiskey is right on the money. I am personally sick and tired of overpaying for marginal whiskey. As you said or implied, I am done with the bs and overpriced garbage.
I think a lot of young distilleries have cut their MGP sourcing since their own juice has come online.
I have seen a dip in the secondary market in Illinois. Museum stores had to reduce prices on BTAC this past season to move their bottles. According to one owner, for the first time ever.
I’m all for variety, but there are just way too many companies in the bourbon game. Covid sales aren’t sustainable. There are just too many store picks without a demand. Clearance shelves are full.
Thanks for the info Fred. As always, world class delivery!
Way too many Binny's picks in the their stores. Good for customers when they go End of Bin. 😁
@@Hotlog69 yup!
yes the price and allocation is what killed it!
I don’t think allocation has killed it. I’ve thought about this a bit, and without allocation bourbon hunting would be much less fun.
Pricing though, has killed it. Finding allocations in my part of the Midwest isn’t difficult, but finding them at MSRP is hard. All the liquor stores want secondary for allocations, leaving everyone to fight for scraps at Total Wine.
Hopefully all the fair weather fans who jumped on the band wagon during Covid and readily overpay for bottles just because it's "The thing" to have right now so they can post it to their social media sites will go away.
Too much of a good thing can ruin it for the fans that have been around WAY before Covid.
And the pretty people with more money than brains!
@@ThumbsMcThumbyou might be having fun having to go all over the place and hunt but that just leaves many more people who are not like you jaded, frustrated and flat out mad.
@@BigBadJerryRogers I take it you’re not a deer hunter either. What’s your solution? There’s only so much product that can be produced.
Dropped out of the bourbon game beginning of year. Prices are rediculous. The hunt started feeling more like a chore. Got a few i like at the $30 range, readily available. Good enough!!
Same here… it was fun the last few years. My hunt now is on the travel exclusive market, basically what we really can’t get here in the US. I’ve moved more towards the Irish whiskey market also. Over-saturation is real…
I also gave up the hunt in the new year. I have more bottles than i can ever drink. Now i know what i like, ill just wait for good deals or trades on those.
Yes! To me, bourbon is best found in the legacy Kentucky distilleries who have perfected what bourbon is: Wild Turkey, Heaven Hill, Beam, Brown-Forman, Buffalo Trace, Maker's, Four Roses. Why look anywhere else?? They deliver textbook heritage KENTUCKY bourbon and at affordable prices.
Prices are going up and up, to many bottles are allocated and rare. Shops are charging more and locking everything up. I spend way to much on scotch, bourbon and others so im started to enjoy my stash now.
Well, the new, small companies aren't doing themselves any favor by putting out brand new products at $100, when we can get the same quality bourbon from the big 6 companies for half the price. Unfortunately, it's the big companies that seem to be following suit by raising the prices on their pretty standard new stuff (talking to you, Old Forester).
Yeah, #1924.
Kinda like craft beer.
Hot till it’s not.
You hit on several points that describe where I’m at. Tired of chasing and hunting, prices are out of control with some brands, and I’ve found what I like and had to choke down plenty of bottles I didn’t like. Took me a while to get smart and take advantage of tasting events and sample stuff before I buy it. Lots of great and highly available whiskey out there that is not overpriced. Give Ben Holladay a try! Great Missouri whiskey. I’ve also spread out into Japanese, Irish, Scotch, and Tequila. Again, easier to get, less hunting and allocation BS, and prices are decent.
I found my palate zone in the bourbons that are available in my area on a regular basis. Old Grand-Dad Bonded/114, Wild Turkey 101, Maker's Mark Cask Strength, Knob Creek 12 Year, Knob Creek Single Barrel Reserve 9 Year and Knob Creek Single Barrel Select. Occasionally see Eagle Rare, Buffalo Trace and Sazerac Rye. So I'll pick those up if/when I see them.
Thankfully I've been able to try some of the highly desirable bourbons everybody chases after. Between friends and establishments that have them available, I have been able to try: Weller Special Reserve, Weller Antique 107, 1792 Single Barrel, 1792 Full Proof and Blanton's Original. None of these impressed me enough to spend time and energy to try and get bottles of. Which led me into pondering if many of the other allocated bourbons are really worth the effort? Short answer: most likely not, the bottles aren't filled with life changing magic! I'll try them when I get a chance to or buy them when I get a chance to, but I'm not going to chase around for them. Time is too precious and gas is too flipping expensive.
Excellent post, one with which I can relate!
That's what I've experienced as well. The only bottles I buy now are the ones I have not seen before at the local discount liquor shop or cheap favorites. I have tried all the BT allocations including every single Weller and other sought-after and allocated bottles, and every time I come to the conclusion they are either not that great, or they are great but still just not worth the cost. The uber rarity bottles are fun to hunt, but it's often a letdown based on the time or price it cost you to get that bottle when you can get better or almost as good for exponentially less. A lot of people are realizing this and the lack of expendable income is a huge factor in that as well
People are buying groceries, gas, and the $11.95 MACNAUGHTON, etc. Good bourbon is nice, but when money is tight cheap Canadian whisky does the trick.
Bourbon boom - not over. Bourbon glut-on the way out. Bourbon prices-better trend downward , and soon! I suspect the clearance shelves of the better stores might start to look very interesting later this year
Interesting observation. I mostly buy clearance single malt scotch, as I prefer it, but I do enjoy bourbon. I've never seen any bourbon on clearance, except some discontinued bottles, which were a good value, but nothing premium. 95% of what I buy is clearance and liquidation and I've scored some neat bottles. Occasionally I'm tempted by a new release or a better price when traveling. I remember buying Weller Antique 107 for $26, no limit. I'm not a hunter, I'm a scavenger 😁 but maybe my time will come.
I think the MGP thing is due to more distilleries contract distilling and selling barrels. Bardstown is a big one. Sagamore does too. Also, most of us are sick of the 6-8 year MGP at $80 lol.
My uneducated guess on MGP is that more of the craft distillate has come to maturity decreasing their dependence on sourcing MGP distillate.
As for smaller bottle shops, at least in CA, the inducements from distribution to retail have been out of control. The small retailers solution was bundles, which was a shortsighted approach to moving all of that unwanted product. The curiosity for entry and midlevel “allocated” expressions has subsided as more have gained access to whiskey that wasn’t as “rare” as they thought. Many more people are realizing Elmer T Lee isn’t worth the price of admission at $150+ and are passing on bundles. I don’t feel bad for these shops. They spent the last 5 years flexing on social media while dangling carrots in front of customers and are now stuck with too much everyday product they can’t move. They are starting to realize that building a small museum of bottles for their top shelf maybe wasn’t the best idea.
I also think new companies blurring the lines on what bourbon is has influenced many people in the wrong direction. Do you want whiskey flavored like chocolate blueberries finished in wine or do you want a classic bourbon. A huge part of the newer consumer base skipped the value bottom shelf bottles and moved right into gimmicky craft expressions and “limited” releases.
As much as I want to see the spirit grow, this is now a weed out time for the fluff that started popping up.
Also, how long could “connoisseurs” keep piling bottles in to their bunkers that are already 500 bottles deep.
Let’s go back to making patiently making American whiskey the correct way and let the hype train strangle the value out of the additive free tequila market.
A really fantastic take.
Yup. I think there's a lot of us who got into this 5-6 years ago and now have 200+ bottles, 50 of them probably LE's and/or allocated. In this economy I can't justify getting every "cool bottle" even if I do find it at or close to msrp. Already passing on ECBP and LBP at $70 and $60.Costco has Bookers $80 and Woodford BP $109, I passed. I've seen so much on the shelf in general that just isn't selling. I'm friends with a local whiskey warehouse (store) manager. He said sales are down 20-30% in the last 3 months Y.O.Y. I think Fred is being optimistic. It usually takes the economic data 18-24 months to catch up with us on main street. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Sure Buffalo Trace, Michter's and Brown Forman will be fine. But a mostly NDP like Redwood Empire (especially being in Ca with all that bs) I really fear for. Sorry to be such a downer 😂
I think you're spot on with the MGP take. That is _exactly_ what is happening at my local distillery. They started with MGP distillate, moved to blends of MGP and their young distillate, and are now mostly their own distillate from locally sourced grains.
The take on stores having allocated bottle museums is so on point. I can think of multiple local shops that have just about any allocated bottle you could want sitting on their shelves, but that's where they stay because they're marked up 500% or whatever. Even so-called tater bottles like Blanton's and Eagle Rare are easily spotted on shelves because the store owners want $160 for the Blanton's and $85 for the Eagle Rare. I often wonder how long store owners will hold onto those museums before they drop prices to a level where a normal person would be interested.
This is very reflective of the "Craft Beer" boom and now bust. So many of the little breweries are shuttering up...just too many choices. That said, the larger and more known distilleries will continue to produce...just hoping that they focus on good product at reasonable prices. Too many bottles at MSRP in excess of $150 (or whatever price point you find a pain point). Over 35 bottles of various whiskey in my collection...nothing too extra ordinary...but enough variety to try something different each time family and friends come over...which is the way I prefer. Just hope this helps decrease the prices the secondary markets have established.
And yes, Vodka sucks...you have to mix it or add something to it get any flavor. Heck, even Russians are known to grind pepper into it to extract some type of flavor! Cheers!🥃
The Bourbon industry is going to change for several reasons; people aren’t hoarding as much, the fomo phase is going away because the overpriced whiskeys have been tried and the reality of that it’s not really any better than the 30-50 dollar available bottle on the shelf, the extra output of whiskey from the lager distilleries that have expanded will be hitting the market soon and to top it with massive amount of inflation people don’t have the extra money to continue paying these crazy prices for bourbon.
This
2024 is the year I start buying less and start drinking what I stashed. Prices are getting out of control and if Elijah Craig can put out a 12-14 yo quality bourbon for $70 bucks others could to, greed is also killing sales.
Local favorites for me are Virginia Distilleries inc, KO Distillery, Ragged Branch. Others I love are Southern Star, Chattanooga whiskey, Leiper's Fork, Blue Note, Redwood Empire, New Riff, Ben Holladay, Sagamore Spirits, Old Dominick, and Barrel Craft Spirtits.
What all of them have in common is reasonable means of getting a bottle. A product line that has something of accessible prices and transparency on what I am buying.
Love Ragged Branch’s products.
I got into bourbon for a few years. Bought a bunch of high end bottles. And then gradually found I didn’t really enjoy it all that much and that drinking alcohol generally made me feel like shit. I still have an occasional drink, but the 30 bottles i already own will last me years and I have no plans to buy more.
For me, the "Hunt" and marked up prices over SRP have made me appreciate bourbons I can find at SRP that are 90 to 95% as good as most of the Unicorns out there. Is a bottle of 15yr Pappy $1450 dollars better than Rare Breed? Hell, is Rare Breed $25 better than 101?
No Rare Breed is not worth $25 more than 101.
Fred,
Great information! Thank you for sharing this! Four small non-distiller producers that I love is Nashville Barrell, Driftless Glenn out of Barabou Wi, Southern Collective Spirits in Nashville and Old Road Craft Spirits (Barrel King) in Bourbon, Mo. All three have outstanding product!
I have settled in and mostly enjoy my 1.75 liter of Knob Creek 9 or Elijah Craig small batch. I will occasionally treat myself to a nice Elijah Craig, Old Forester or Rebel full proof store pick.
Shout out to a local distillery that's just starting to get national distribution...Prophet Share Bourbon, by Safe House Distilling CO., located here in Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA, lol)
Also Barrel King is the best independent bottling house, imo. Had several club picks and joined their monthly program.
I went to a popular local grocer this morning, here in Baton Rouge. There were bottles sitting on the shelf (with discount tags) that definitely wouldn't have been there just a few months ago. ECBP, McKenna 10, KC 12, Eagle Rare and BT picks, and a few others I'm sure I missed.
Same thing with the Total Wine. EHT Small Batch, which is super scarce/rare for this area. I think it has to do with disposable income and increase in prices. The country isn't well economically, and it's only going to get worse.
Safe answer. Who has been responsible with the economy? 🤣
Same here. ECBP just sits. Got an Eagle Rare for retail and McKenna's isn't moving. Stuff that used to fly off the shelves is getting dusty now.
Calandros ? Martins had all Stellum products at 50% off!
@mikemattis1204 yup the perkins location. went there for pimento/cheese and cold cuts for charcuterie. i am never game for the upcharge on party liquors there tho (although I'd pony up if they'd do another pick of four roses).
Agreed with everything you said, Fred. After years of trying/buying the latest and best (per TH-cam channels) I have dozens of 1/2 finished bottles, and pretty much only drink various OF, BT, WT and New Riff products on a daily basis.
Go Pokes!! Thanks for the 1st quarter analysis. I hope you continue with this type of content a few more times this year. One thought on MGP - many distillers use MGP as a stop-gap between their own development of "home-grown" products, & quick to market name branding strategies. Now that these distillers have their own 2/3/4+ year old product hitting the shelves, their dependence and reliance on MGP is much less. With out a continued influx of new distillers using MGP, we will continue to see declines in MGP. IMO of course....
Yes, and I've noticed that MGP has purchased several bottling companies recently to give them reliable outlets for their distillates.
Bourbon is a bandwagon that we all jumped on and found that with so many bottles, variety is not the spice of life. Give me an OF1910, and Eagle Rare, and a Makers 46 and couple that with a few ryes, and I’m good.
Imo this isnt unique to bourbon. Breweries are dying, restaurants are closing. Me and my wife's favorite pub is closing despite operating for 15 years. People are broke. People aren't spending money on things they don't need or making new ventures.
With that said, I have 90 bottles of whiskey. Starting last summer I stopped buying and wanted to finish all my bottles. I know what I like and I'm just going to buy what I like at this point
I feel like I have figured out my palate more and what I like and what I don't. I don't need to try every new thing that comes down the pipe especially since a lot of the new stuff has been sourced from elsewhere. Maybe if the Boom slows down we can see some older products back on the shelves again.
I walked into a liquor store and saw a guy standing in front of the glass allocated bottle case for 30 minutes on his phone. He was taking pictures of the bottles and texting people about the Midwinters Night Dram that was in the display. He had no idea what he was looking at but knew it was a tater bottle. Finally he asked an employee if they could open up the case so he could buy the "Mid Summer's Night Dream". I walked out of the store in disbelief of how idiotic and pathetic that was. These are the people making it hard to find good bottles. People who have no idea what they're buying and just want to brag about something they saw on TikTok or something they think is rare and worth a lot of money. In reality, there were at least 20 other better bottles sitting on the shelf in the regular whiskey aisle that this guy will never try in his life.
The worm is turning. Hang tight. A day will come when buyers are allocated and sellers are hunting us in hopes of selling a bottle.
With all due respect, what another man does with his money is none of your business. Willing buyer, willing seller.
@@westpacific52 I happen to agree - free market 100%. That means nobody should prevent them, nobody should make rules against it, etc. We still get to observe them and make comments, it's a free society. We even get to make fun, if we want. Criticism is allowed.
@@westpacific52 It's my business when you're blocking a display case for 30 minutes on your phone. I could have just bought the bottle right from under him but I was polite enough to wait for him to move knowing that he was going to ask for that bottle. I might have considered buying it if he wasn't there.
You guys KILL ME WITH YOUR NON PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT. a “ CHEAP” $25 -$65 bottle to you is INSANE to the family the struggles to buy diapers , baby milk etc. what’s “ PREMIUM “ to one is PURE GARBAGE to another. To ME, JIM BEAM AND JACK D are FN GROSS, and there are those that will HATE ME for that; which goes to show goes to prove JUST SHUT THE FK UP and let people live and have their own opinion…JUST SAYING!
Secondary prices are down 50% or more in my area. Also, some stores have some allocation-only bottles on shelves at msrp
Here there is no secondary market so not something I worry about as far as what their prices are since I cannot purchase from them anyways. I stick mainly to what I can find and, once a year, splurge when there is a special release of limited availability items. As one person below stated, WT101 is a good price and a good sip so I try to keep things simple and occasionally pick up something new as I find it. Right now though my bar is stocked and it will take a while to deplete it to the point where I need to restock with the exception of daily sippers.
A lot of people expect some sort of recession to hit this year, as a luxury good, bourbon could be affected early on. Could be a sign of the times and what's coming globally. People are still chasing BT products more than they should but if in general prices hold or even drop slightly and there's a glut of inventory, then we might start to see previous unobtanium be a bit more easy to get. Some things like McKenna and Heaven Hill BiB are pretty easy to get. Tons of JD Barrel Proof on shelves by me now, which used to sell out right away. Just small examples of things that used to be tough to get now pretty much in every store.
Personally, I'm fed up with the constant increase in the pricing of bourbon over the past 5-6 years and lack of availability due to allocation. I am not going to try a new $75 or higher bottle when I have a multitude of excellent choices I know I like for $30-$50. I feel like we're being jacked around to milk as high a demand and profit as possible. So if you're a new distiller and are offering up an awesome bourbon at $80, good luck.
I think there's an issue with oversaturation in production meeting complacency in consumers. There are so many new options and consumers may be less inclined to try each new one that lands. And considering that so many new offerings start (perhaps necessarily) at or above the cost of the average person's Daily Drinker, it can be a financial impracticality for many to even try to keep up. So after awhile (that time being about now, I'd agree/say) they take inventory of what they know and focus there.
Well, I for one hope it is over. I'm looking forward to getting back to some sort of normal pricing for a good solid bourbon, and also getting away from all these "special" and/or "limited" releases. And I'm completely over all the finished bourbons - if it's good bourbon to begin with it doesn't need extra finishing to make it good. Harrumph - that's my rant for today. :)
Finished bourbons are mostly a gimmick to mask bad/immature juice or appeal to people who don’t actually like taste of bourbon but want to feel manly drinking bourbon
Support your local distillers! Appreciate the insight & commentary Fred. There are great local distillers with products that are 5, 6, 7 years in barrel with excellent results. Catoctin Creek 6 year old Rabble Rouser Rye Bottled-in-Bond is outstanding. Dad's Hat released a 7 year Single Barrel Straight Pennsylvania Rye at cask strength. Leopold Brothers with 5 year 3 chamber rye. Stoll & Wolf with wonderfully aged ryes to include Rosen rye which is continuing to show why Rosen was the rye of choice pre-Prohibition. Alan & Spirits of French Lick with an array of quality bourbons & ryes. There are plenty of quality, cost reasonable products worthy of support to those that seek them out.
If distilleries can find a way to get samples out to the public instead of just well off TH-cam creators the may sell more newer products
IDK, but scotch prices are absurd!
Looking at my currentl spending habits, I buy more than I drink and my shelves are getting full. I'm still buying my mixers but I am mostly looking to purchase special bottles when I shop. I think with so many options, I don't feel compelled to have them all.
In my case as the recession continues I'm now doing very little experimenting with new brands/expressions. I'm also focusing on available options that are in the $70 and less range.
Same
Absolutely
what recession? lol
@@NRHR8735 Sarcasm right 😂
@@100puremustard5 you clearly don't know what a recession is.
I think a lot of people did what I did during the pandemic and now it’s getting back to normal.
For the last decade, it’s wasn’t uncommon for me to have 4-5 bourbon and Irish whiskies on my shelf. Then, over the pandemic, I went on a huge exploration of them and bought a sh-ton of whisk(e)y. The last couple years, I’ve really ratcheted down the buying so I can work the collection down to a reasonable amount. Now the majority of my buys are for gifts to others and to restock my most favs
In central Ky, walk into any liquor store and there are cases and cases of whiskey sitting and piling up. The stores have to buy some many other bottles to get the allocated ones that the stores are running out of space. The buy is getting very picky and overwhelmed with bottles also.
The industry is to a point where t of maximum capacity in the stores and people’s homes
i've been drinking good bourbon for nearly 20 years. i'm a 'bought pappy and AH Hirsch off the shelf' guy. i stopped caring. i refuse to overpay for bourbon. if my local brick and mortar has something on the shelf i like at retail, i'll get it. but when they too started racking up pricing i stopped altogether and then the distilleries started too. it just made me mad. a fool and his money are soon parted.
To get any allocated or hard to find whiskey from the Distributors you have to buy a whole bunch of crap I mean like cases of cases of Fireball some dirty vodka that probably was filtered through a dirty butt crack
Had to give a thumbs up for the dirty butt crack.
Thanks for your analysis on the state of bourbon; great insight. Prices getting a bit crazy & maybe consumers done w/ making fomo purchases & now content with the allocated stuff they have & just buying stuff they use on a regular basis.
For me... with so many "brands" on the shelves, what defines a brand? Why should I bother trying a random new bottle on the shelf when there are so many good heritage/legacy bottles? And then when I pick between two new brands, why would I pick the one from MGP that was cobbled together by "investors" vs the one from folks that are actually crafting the spirit? Not bourbon, but I have been enjoying a lot of new American Single Malt recently because of the fact that the distillers, etc. love the craft and can have a cogent conversation about every aspect of the product they make. This is similar to talking to a painter, musician, etc. about their art and there is something more magnetic about that product.
This exactly. I have no problem trying different new bottles from small distillers, but every time I try something new, I always just wish it was my favorite bourbon that is readily on the shelf.
I talked to a guy the other night. Almost said your exact words to him
Thanks for sharing
I got into bourbon fairly quickly. Fairly quickly did I realize the “hunt” for the allocated bottles and secondary pricing is worthless. I have found amazing bourbons that are easy to find that blow a lot of allocated bottles away. The first time I paid secondary for something was the very last. EH Taylor SB isn’t that good…
Yup, it's a $40 bottle and it was good at that price. I agree 100%, I don't enjoy feeling "taken", so I never pay those prices.
I remember going to Jack Daniels Distillery in the early 90's. We walked right in and were able to get a tour for FREE! Now they offer multiple tours depending on what you want, and they all have fee
Same with Beam in the late 90s.
I'm quickly growing tired of pricey bourbon that's mediocre at best. Too many gimmicks and sourced whiskeys double the price of just plain and simple good tasting bourbon. Now I'm not giving up on bourbon and rye but I'm just being much more careful and selective. Went to a store today and the lady was an absolute snob, so why would I want to spend my money there?
Interesting topic. I see MGP as a potential canary in the coal mine. If their stock price is off, it's because expected future cash flows are less than before. How much of that is reduced volume expectations? How much is pricing related? It's likely a combination of both. Bourbon prices are ridiculous, and once the fad dissipates (like cigars, like craft beer, like Rolex watches for example) then the experimental buyer and the speculator exits the market. With all of the additional distillation capacity coming on line and the huge amounts of inventory aging in rickhouses all over the country, I believe that prices will recede from their current levels as producers 1) are forced to cope with the price elasticity of demand (i.e. eliminate/discount expemsive, low volume niche products that are slow sellers that tie up too much working capital) and 2) chase volume in their core brands to cover the additional fixed costs that they will incur as a result of expansion.
There are just too many brands to try them all so you have to be more selective, especially with costs just going up more and more. More needs to be done to help regulate secondary prices too.
For example, I know I like Jack Daniel's and never want to miss their special releases. I also know I'll never find them at retail, so that means I'm setting aside more and more of my whiskey budget to pay for those bottles when they come out as much as it pains me, which means I have less money to spend on other bottles / brands throughout the year so I look to maximize value there or rely on the people and bottles I know I like for my everyday bottles (101, Mellow Corn, EWBIB) OR that I can trust to release something good (Bardstown). If I want something new, I'll try it at a bar or from a friend to judge if it's worth picking up. Rarely does it unseat one of my standard, reliable bottles though.
I think what you said that more people are more choosey is correct. I think the friendships people made and the shared interests people had is what is really gonna drive the industry going forward. I have friends now who I met exclusively due to bourbon and I don’t think that’s going to change even though consumer purchase habits might
I’m done with chasing, I️ will say that. I️ don’t care anymore. It’s completely stupid to be this obsessed and pay so much much money for a drink. Makers mark or woodford are honestly just fine. I️ don’t need to spend 600 dollars on a bottle to have a slightly better flavor, all just marketing BS
I've been let down by too many overpriced craft distillers and too many overpriced average tasting bourbon. I'm now looking for value and good honest whiskey. I don't chase unicorns or buy whiskey to impress. I hope the boom is over and we can get back to good, aged, everyday value whiskey.
Testify!
I am absolutely done with the secondary/ridiculous pricing. A store near me has 3 bottles of Jack 12 and he wants 500.00 a piece. I'm perfectly happy with my local Redwood Empire, Frey Ranch, Corbin Cash, J.J. Pfister and others that are grain to glass distilleries. Redwood is weening itself from other distillates nicely.
I live in Iowa and it is very hard to find bottles I want to try. I mean heck I have drove many miles looking for Eagle Rare because I have not had it and want to try it. Same for Weller and E.H Taylor. So I stick with what is available. But being from Iowa you know I have bottles from Cedar Ridge and Cody Road. Cheers 🥃
I live in southeastern Minnesota, same issues here.
Great video. Thank you for all the information. Provides very good context.
I am in Ohio, a state controlled business. We don't get a lot of Buffalo Trace products and allocated products but it has gotten better and we buy at retail MSRP. The problem is hype and prices going crazy! Why buy a $65 bottle of something that let's you asking why when you can count on a $20-$30 bottle that you like and is a consistent? Make a good tasting consistent product at a fair price and market it as such!
Holladay Bourbon seems to be doing pretty well
Is it over?
Yes, as usual greed is ruined a good thing
The American way!
Branch point distillery in Dayton Oregon, great whiskies made with a grain called Trit. My favorite is the rum cask finish. Looking forward to thier chardonnay finished release.
As the costs of everything goes up, including staples, people have less discretionary income. Why pay $100-200 for a bottle when you can’t afford it like you used to? So many good $20-50 bottles out there.
This would likely neverrrr happen BUT...I wonder if the whiskey consumer/hobbyist base would be receptive to smaller bottles for less cost per. One of the main factors that keeps me from purchasing new bottles is often the size of my current collection (both in physical space, and liquid quantity), and the insane cost and effort it often requires to attain some of the greats. A handful of my bottles have been sitting on my shelves (open) for years, not because they are bad, but because I want to explore and taste other whiskies as time goes on, so I seldom empty any of them. I would totally be on board with either 375ml or even 250ml being a new 'standard' bottle size, assuming the price would also decrease. Theoretically then more people could try more whiskey for less cost per.
I don't know...just a thought I had. Cheers!
Groceries cost so much that people’s discretionary spending is down.
Plus whiskey prices just shot up in NC. Booker’s is now $100, Baker’s 7 is $70. Henry McKenna is over $60. I won’t be buying these anymore.
I can definitely say I am tired of nothing but Finished whiskies coming out I wish companies would realize there's nothing wrong with just straight bourbon
I see finished bourbons as a fad for the most part.
@ThumbsMcThumb i hope so cause it gets old with finish releases thats overpriced and is worse then their standard offering most times and demands a luxury price
I am just tired of the same mashbill being used in the same company and rebranded a bunch of times. Like Eagle Rare and Buffalo Trace. Release more Buffalo Trace at the older price point and be done with it.🤷🏼♂️
Hate to see all that capacity the legacy distillers are building go to export. As a guy that largely prefers the legacy stuff to craft, was really hoping to see a little better availability on allocated bottles.
One of my favorite craft distilleries is JT Meleck....a small distillery in South Louisiana that is making rice whiskey. Distribution outside of Louisiana is slowly moving North and around the US. Hopefully everyone gets the opportunity to try this great whiskey.
Shout out to Lost, Belmont Farms, and Reservoir. All three are local Distilleries in VA, and they make some killer whiskies.
Here in Florida, the boom isn't close to over. We have stores that people and I mean a lot of people camp out literally to buy secondary priced allocated bourbon. Just yesterday, I was in a store to pick up my favorite WRDO. Seen one guy paid $299 before tax for a bottle of RHF and $399 for a bottle of EHTBP. 🤯 So im thinking we have a long way to go as long as there are the ones that keep paying secondary prices for mediocre bourbon. JMO Anyway, enjoy the pour you like.
I spent $60 on a bottle of Old Forester 1920 almost a year ago, only to find it tasted like what you would expect paint thinner to taste like. Brown Forman lost me as a customer forever. Bought Russell's Reserve Barrel Proof single barrel again for over $60, only to find WT101 at $25 is a much better buy. Ultimately I discovered Scotch, where spending $60 almost never disappoints. Now I do not even look at the Bourbon isle, single malt 12 year Scotch at $60 has much better every thing than $60 corn mash from Kentucky.
Absolutely, I still enjoy my bourbon, but scotch is where it's at, especially price vs age of whiskey.
Big fan of your work, I've been drinking whiskey since before it was popular. Your analysis from the business side of things seems to make a ton of sense but I do wonder about the ability of this industry to meet the desire of consumers to have the hot or trendy thing. Part of me wants the craze to cool completely but I'd rather that these distilleries not suffer as a result.
Put out more 375 ml. I'd much, much rather increase my chances at a 375 (or even smaller), and I'd spend less, AND I'd have more room on the shelf. The 750s just get to be a grind to get through when your collection starts piling up. Found a 375 Maker's pick for $27, and that's amazing! More like that please! I'd WAY rather do that than slog through a 750, especially if I end up not liking it.
That only happens when the producers want to broaden their sales. That's why you only see the big commodity labels do pints or minis. It's more economical for smaller producers to just deliver 750s.
I'm seeing sales across the board down 5-15% with wine taking the biggest hit but spirits, including whiskey are still down. It's not just brown water, social and cultural changes and fluctuations are affecting all alcohol consumption.
I'd also be curious about Tequila demand. Agave prices are apparently plunging. It's possible that farmers rushed to plant more than required and so increased supply. How about demand?
The raw materials for Bourbon are more of a general commodity, so it's probably difficult to gain any insight from that.
Anecdotally, it seems like I'm seeing new tequila bottles being announced on social media by my local liquor stores on at least a weekly basis. I feel like we're already at the glut level for tequila, especially because everyone seems to want to enter the market at the super premium level to try get that Clase Azul and Don Julio 1942 money.
On a side and only semi related note... for your book that was translated to Chinese... did you have to make or approve of any "edits" that the government required? I'm always interested in hearing what they like to cut from the media they import.
It was fun while it lasted for me, but I’ve stopped the bourbon hunting and looked into more things like Tequilas(Extra Anejo are my favorite) as well as some Cognacs. You go to any of your stores you will always see the same things on the shelf. Not many of us get to buy new releases from those popular distilleries or brands. Move on to something new and available.
Same thing happened with craft breweries a number of years ago. Customers realized that the variation between 8000 different IPAs was minimal, so they stuck with just their favorites and the breweries that didn't have a following went "pop."
Yes, exactly
The market looks to coming back in balance like any other that gets overheated. Some distilleries will go out of business, that's OK. It's already happening in the craft beer market. Breweries are going out of business all over the place. People are tired of $12 six packs of the 100th IPA they have tasted. 420 Breweries opened in the US last year but 385 closed.
It would seem to me that the rise in exports and the warning signs at home are not mutually exclusive, and in fact the focus on the sport market is likely a hedge against some regression to the mean stateside. I have several friends who are tired of either paying upward-adjusted SRPs or having to pass on their legacy go-tos bc of hyper-inflated secondary market prices.
IMHO there is a veritable glut of craft distillers, and the free market does seem poised for a trimming do the fat, so to speak. As you state tho, those who make *good* whiskey will indeed survive, whether they ride out the hiccups or through a successful exit.
Over a long enough timeline everything is cyclical in nature, and I imagine the bourbon market is no exception.
FYI the overseas market kept many Bourbon companies alive over the past few decades when Bourbon was not as popular in the US. Japan is a very big market for US Bourbon, always has been.
@@theboringchannel2027 Yep. We (the US market) similarly kept the scotch market alive during the mid-20th century. The question is, which of these metrics are reactive, and which are predictive? If the focus on international markets was simply a hedge, it would seem counterintuitive that some distillers would be (anecdotally) stopping production of new make.
There will always be some influx of consumers new to bourbon (I try to do my share by sharing good tastings like Johnny Bourbonseed), but if enough of their existing (domestic) market is changing it’s purchasing or consumption habits, which is apparently creating at least some ripples of disturbance in the supply chain, it would still seem to me the stars align for some degree of correction/contraction in the industry. Interesting chatter today about Barrell Craft selling off some of its hard assets (there is a good summary video D&D dropped yesterday or today on his YT channel).
Baltimore Spirits Company. Epoch Rye. Epoch Bourbon. They've won tons of awards. Never sourced a drop. A distinctive craft product, I've been enjoying for years now.
As much as I enjoy MGP products others are sourcing. I have began chasing more of the newer Grain-to-Glass distillers. Leiper’s Fork and Hard Truth are two that have really impressed me recently and would recommend people trying.
People have less disposable income…less money to venture into unknown bourbons
Just my opinion smaller distillery prices are double that of major brands
And half as good.
I don't remember my dad's or grandad's liquor cabinet having more than 10 or 12 bottles and I look at mine with 149 bottles and wonder how we got here.
I have seen Weller 12 year going as low as £85-£90 lately in auction houses. Used to be like £150ish in auctions as you won’t be able to see them in wild anymore. I think now people know value of their money and know what price product deserves. choose wisely folks.
Fred, --[1] Thanks. Here you have a most perceptive, informative vid, & ahead of the information curve vid. Indeed, I agree with your vid, its fact presentation, & especially your conclusions.
--[2] I am a most informed & "able to afford a good amount of moderately priced distilled spirits" consumer. After purchasing a quite good/large amount of new distiller spirits over the past number of years, I am just about tapped out on buying many more new-distiller products, which by-the-way, are generally quite good to excellent. Presently, I am retrenching back to the large-brand, large-producers also excellent products.
--[3] The seemingly nearly unlimited number of new & small distillers has reached the saturation level of attention, of available money, & of mental capacity to keep track of all of the small, new-distiller products & locations. These new, small distillers seem to be popping up on every block of decent-sized cities. Also, my liver has reached it limit of fatty liever, & it cannot really take much more fine distilled spirit consumption.
--[4] Again, thanks. I'll continue to follow you & more closely. Richard 👍