2024 Bold Bourbon Predictions
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Thank you Fred for the kind words. But we’ve already seen the changes. The entry level straight which comes in around 30 is now an insanely huge volume mover. Small Batch which used to get passed over for uncut unfiltered has absolutely exploded being in the sub 55 price point. And I always thought uncut the younger would just be a niche affordable cask strength for bourbon enthusiasts, had crossed over into general consumers and cocktail menus. So much so I have to do a rebranding because it hit a wall because beverage directors at regular non bourbon bars change the name because general consumers don’t know what uncut means. And I thought younger would be the sticking point.
I’m hoping the days of seeing secondary market prices in stores are numbered.
sounds like the 3 tier system is hurting small brands. DTC needs to happen asap
Heaven Hill 7 year BiB is $42 on sale in my area. HM10 is sitting on shelves for $59. Many LEs are taking weeks to sell out. My local big box store has had Remus Gatz 15 ($279), Angel’s Envy CS $229 and Hardin’s Creek Trio ($170) for weeks. The market is flooded with products and people are getting tired of high ticket prices. The clearance rack at Binny’s is full of barrel picks and overpriced craft products. For example, Leopold Brothers 3 Chamber just doesn’t sell at $250! It’s on clearance for $179 and it still doesn’t sell. The overbuying madness is slowing down. I am very picky on what I buy from now on. Coors is on the hunt because beer sales have nosedived. Maybe a wilderness trail sized distillery? So, great predictions. Cheers Fred!
This is true! I've also seen some Remus G sitting next to J Magnus Cigar Blend. So some of the madness is slowing down. I still see shelves full of museum priced Buffalo Trace things like weller l, stagg, etc. Hopefully, retailers start bringing down prices too. Seeing stagg on a shelf for 399 is so dumb at this point.
@@kamahhl Speaking of Stagg, I’ve seen it twice for $130 and $200. The $130 is already an improvement. I passed both times. I already have some. So to your point, retailers have to move those bottles and will adjust unless they have brick for brains. Some do 😂!
@@C_H_1972I see a shop selling EH Talyor barrel proof for $500.
I’m watching Henry McKenna sitting on the self at 60$ now, so maybe your price prediction is on to something. It was fantastic at 25-30$ but plenty of great bourbons at 60$ and I think the quality started to slip to try to meet demand.
I have firmly landed on Barrell Craft Spirits as my go to blender, daily sipper, and even special occasion dram. $80 - approx 1 or 2 bottles a month. I don't have an over abundance of inventory at any given time. And always something delicious to break out, when people come to hang out.
Market is flooded with Bourbon at this point,
and the amount of barrels aging and new storage houses being built
is truly insane.
Premiums on Bourbon are coming down and will further
as the economy softens a bit in the coming year or two.
Also lots of allocated bottles that have been hoarded on
the secondary as investments or whatever,
that will be ending up on the market as money gets tighter.
Will always be a couple of hot bottles,
but the rest of the market will end up at
MSRP or on sale frequently to move product.
With the way bourbon prices have been going up I can see a lot consumers moving on from high-priced bottles. There is too much variety out there where you don't need to spend 140 on a bottle
Was hoping you'd do a video after missing the roundtable. I think by year end, certain BT products will be shelf turds. Stores near me were getting products in weekly from mid November to end of December. Stuff that was usually like once every 2 months like ER, EHT, Weller SR. It still sold out fast, but not in one hour and there were no lines when they opened. Prices not as high as usual. I think the people finally will realize after having 8 bottles of Weller SR they don't need to rush out and buy more.
A trend I’ve noticed is instead of paying $200+ for some special edition new release limited edition bottle no one has tasted and being disappointed and doing this over and over again and having all these random limited edition bottles, I’ve been seeing a lot of people I know transition to just paying secondary for say, weller 12 or full proof or something else they know they like that looks nice on their bar and just calling it a day
I am hoping to see a resurgence of specialized decanters like the old Beam and Wild Turkey ones back in the 70’s and 80’s (ie: more of the Piggybank rye type of releases).
You should check out James E Pepoer. They did just that.
There’s a local store here that has a staggering amount of allocated/hard to find bottles. They have Blantons gold for 699 each. Wonder why they have 4 of them collecting dust 😂
Nulu in my area was discounted to 30 bucks at most stores. Apparently the distributor had way to much and wanted the warehouse space. Funnily enough several stores kept their prices at 90 need less to say it is just sitting there. A lot NDPs are definitely going to be in trouble soon.
Great predictions Fred. Prices are staying high in Oregon and Washington where I live, so we will see how that goes. More distilleries will switch to a 700 ml bottle size and still charge a 750 ml price. Some bourbons have already moved out of my budget range, Thankfully BIBs have not.
And I will always be buying WT101, and EWBIB! And as a treat, Rare Breed!
As to MillerCoors, if you look at their craft brewery purchases in the past, the tend to go after small, like barely regional, type of purchases. It also appears they stick to areas close to their legacy breweries.
Taking that into account, they could look at Blue Ash Farms, J. Henry, TX Whiskey.
Hoever, if they want to go big, they could look at Castle and Key. I absolutely do not see this happening, but the investors have dumped piles of money into renovations, and the whiskey coming out, currently, isnt going to make that back any time soon, if ever.
Good stuff. Thanks Fred!
Very interesting. I hope the prices do start to fall - including the secondary. I literally laughed at the owner of a local liquor store who has Weller SR marked at $100.
Great comments and thanks for the great content
I 100% agree with your predictions.
I hope Four Roses keep to what they do and don't get bought out. What they do they do well. Prices on some products might drop but if recent prices on Wild Turkey's LE products show anything is that some companies aren't looking to discount much of anything still. Coors could acquire something like Wilderness it would go along with their Rocky Mountain theme and Wilderness Trail stuff is starting to get a little higher aged product.
I'm seeing better availability for sure and maybe a little lower pricing. Not high end LE's but more in the mid range $50-$80 bottles. It's inevitable since every distillery has been doubling and redoubling output for years. The market snapped it all up when FOMO was rampant but now that everybody has 100+ bottles on their shelf the pricing has to be more elastic.
I'm wondering about maybe Chattanooga being purchased.
I predict Coors will buy Still Austin. They have a great product at reasonable prices.
BOLD Prediction: people still line up outside Buffalo Trace distillery hoping it’s Blanton’s day. I know I’m going out on a limb here, but someone has to!
Let them grab the Blanton's....that means more of the good stuff for us
My prediction: More bourbon drinkers move to rum and tequila. 12yr product from Foursquare distillery is $50 instead of $90-$180 in the bourbon market.
I see a lot more American single malt and finished whiskeys coming to the market. Seeing Bulleit releasing a single malt and Shortbarrel with the Bees Knees confirms this to me.
Lookin awfully dapper, Fred! I think it’s the ascott! Love you, Brother!
In general yeah the overall squeeze combined with people having built up stock of the stuff they like, I expect a lot of things will loosen up in price and availability. Smaller brands without a dedicated following or breakaway product are going to be in trouble.
Now that's a bold and awesome ascot! I look forward to some price drops. Inflation really is hitting everything else.
Do you think Pappy 23 year will continue to gain value over the upcoming years if bought now and kept for say 5-10 years ?
Coors should go after Willett. Has a huge fan base already and could use some serious scale and investment
Willett actually has a huge expansion planned already. The scale is already being increased a lot.
Great Vid! Not gonna be one of the top dogs, maybe Starlight, Nulu or KLuke?
Lookin' Great here Mr. Skinni Minni!
I could see Molson Coors going after someone with a visible brand that could still benefit from greater distribution like a High West (Constellation Brands) or Found North, on the smaller scale.
I like this pick. High West would fit nicely.
@@remander3873 yea but like he said High West is already owned by Constellation (Modelo/Corona), but similar size would be good.
Molson-Coors can make a BIG acquisition, like Four Roses
Always enjoy your thoughts. Lookin' really lean these days Fred. Good work on the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu! I imagine you are feelin' well also.
I have all I need now. My last 10 purchases have been allocated bottles sold at Walmart at MSRP. Namely Eagle Rare and Blantons. When you have what you want already, you can take your time and be picky!!
what walmart are you going to?
Didn't Molson Coors buy Blue Run? Spoke to soon... You covered it later. Prediction for acquisition: Sagamore or maybe one of the Colorado distilleries
Sagamore was purchased by Disaronno parent company this fall.
At total wine yesterday the prices are all up not down .
I'm already seeing prices drop on Elijah Craig Toasted and Henry McKenna 10 so I agree priced will drop. I think we'll see MGP acquire Old Elk in a much more affordable deal than Penelope. I think we will also see more new bottles that will never get on a shelf at SRP. People are already going nuts of Traveler and Old Forester 1924. I'm sure Russell's 15 will be just as hard to find as the 13.
Traveller will not last long on the secondary. It is not very good.
@@DougEFresh-mj1xfit’s also EVERYWHERE. In my area every store is probably sitting on 10 cases and they’re not moving. Once I heard the reviews that it tasted like water I did not feel any fomo lol. It’s already on sale at a store in my area for $30 too, still not gonna bite
Coors acquiring High West or Willett would be interesting
Loving your prediction’s definitely need more bourbon at a good price point
Lookup 'the beer game' supply chain simulation. The bourbon category may not collapse any time soon, but there is a glut of product coming to market and simple economics will drive down prices.
I hope prices drop. Unfortunately, I live in a part of Tennessee which has no competition. I imagine coors will purchase a Colorado distillery, or become the majority share holder.
It's funny how the secondary market tanks when you have to decide whether you'd like to eat or add a bottle to the collection 😂
You look great Fred!
6. Kenny Coleman receives cease and desist or lawsuit for defamation from 13th Colony
My prediction is Molson Coors buys James E Pepper distillery. And prices decrease but only by 20 bucks on average
Anyone have any info on a single barrel whiskey by the name of St. Michael?
Maybe Molson Coors will go for the American single malt market instead of bourbon?
I don't see the bourbon prices dropping the secondary market is killing it for the consumer
Prediction 1) more celebrity whiskey 👎 2) coors buys still Austin 3) American single malts start filling shelves!
All solid
American Single Malts are already filling shelves in my neck of the woods
Seeing product sit longer and prices start to come down in my neck of the woods. Lots of hunters, including myself, going to start drinking down their collections and enjoying what they already own. Prices coming down and many distillers go out of business unfortunately…bubble bursted.
Lots of allocated stuff near me sits on shelves now. Even Michter's toasted rye, 10 yr rye, Magnus Cigar, EC 18, KC 18, ER, etc. still sitting since Thanksgiving. Nobody wants finished NDP stuff either so that sits too. I think inflation is the real problem, groceries are twice as much for less in the bag. The dildos in office will tell you it's a strong economy, so people are left puzzled.
NDPs really don’t interest me especially with how much they want to charge
I don't see Molson Coors buying a brand that is in trouble. I can see Old Elk or Smoke Wagon as a very viable brands that could be purchased.
Yup
Mr. Coors hanging with VP of Bardstown Bourbon in Bardstown. Hmmm
Prediction: bourbon growth will come to a plateau this year. People are tired of the chase. I think at the end of the day, the only people who will ultimately suffer, will be the distilleries themselves. The lack of policing of their own prices in these ridiculous stores will force people to look elsewhere for alternative spirits. Especially, the younger IPA crowd who migrated to bourbon. With inflation, & the economy being the way it is, people are waking up to the ridiculousness of paying big money for a product that if we're all being honest with ourselves, isn't all that different from each other. There's only so many variations of notes available in a spirit all aged the same way. People are also waking up to the fact that you can't argue a Weller, CYPB is 5x greater than say a Weller 107. IMO at some point, distilleries will be begging for their customers to come back. Once the crowd goes spiteful, people will stop buying out of principle. That audience will be incredibly difficult to recapture.
"The world is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal."
This is a prediction for not this year but 2026-27: Elijah Craig Barrel Proof gets discontinued as a product.
Bold Prediction 3 will probably not come true. I see blue chips remaining blue chips, but the mid level shelvies that are over priced will come back to reality or go the way of prediction 2 of some shuttering operations. I see it more similar to the amount of craft beers on the shelves being reduced while prices are still high of those that have a following.
Prediction: high end NDPs (Four Gate, Old Carter) either go belly up or get bought out. Those prices are straight up criminal and market is flooded with high end bottles.
Even more bold prediction - Sazerac will merge with one of the European liquor giants (Diageo, Pernord-Ricard, LVMH)
Anti trust would likely block thet
The brand I see in my area that seems to be getting some blowback from stores and maybe distributors is Barrell, I finally found Batch 35 in a store just last week, and many stores still have bottles of the less desirable batch bottlings as well as their pricey premium bottlings just sitting on the shelves.
They won’t go away but it would be awesome if they learn from Batch 35 (delicious) and their pricing comes down. If that happens, I see Barrel significantly growing.
I was at Liquor Barn in Lex today, and was blinded by yellow sales stickers in the whiskey aisle. I think Still Austin will be a target for Molson Coors.
@@colinheidtman6923I don't see them going anywhere either, but I think they've come to the realization that continually coming out with $90 batch bottlings isn't sustainable in the long run, hence the release of a $55 Foundation bottle, 2XO also came out with their $50 double oak to introduce more drinkers to their brand, smart moves I think.
Hear, hear..!!!
Coors should buy Hemingway Rye. its a new brand looking for an Owner and Coors would gain immediate credibility - its an awesome rye
Inflation influences everything, especially with non-essential items, like whiskey, for example.
Bingo
True but as long as people buy as much whiskey as they have been the prices will go up regardless
The might buy as much but it will likely be less expensive liquor. @@kevinblue1976
Prices dropping like a rock in my area..people just cant keep up. Coors buys Michters...bold prediction.
Michter’s? Hmm. I can’t see it, but you never know
Lord I hope not. As a Michter's fan boi they don't need to change a thing. Well... other than making more product.
@@FredMinnick yeah, its bold...lol
@@vicholcomb8232 I agree...I just dont see the production from them other than the 4 normal bottles.
Oregon just had a broad price increase on a lot of bourbon in November. Not welcomed. Haha
Four Gate is going to in trouble based on that falling prices prediction
I hope Campari really brings down the prices because their special releases are ridiculous, and as I WT fan I can't wait for the price drop!
Huh??? WT already has some of the best prices in the industry on readily available bottles that are well above average. Re: RR10, WT101, and Rare Breed. Special releases will always be pricey, and are made in such small quantities that there is no incentive for the top distilleries to reduce prices. And if the bottles do sit until they need to be reduced, that's probably an indicator that they weren't very good in the first place.
@@davidnettleton3375 I agree with the price:quality ratio of the low to mid level bourbon but not their high end. I think Bardstown B. Co. and Jim Beam with their Disco Series, Knob Creek and Hardin's Creek lines are doing a much better job at keeping that P:Q ratio worth it for the consumer. But that is just my opinion.
If Molson Coors is looking to expand their spirits portfolio it's not going to be with another premium boutique brand like Blue Run. They are 1/10th the size of InBev. They need to go big into diversification the same way Pepsi did against CocaCola 40 years ago when they became a snack food/beverage company. The largest private distillery in Kentucky is Heaven Hill. They have one of the top selling products every year in their White Label Bottle in Bond. They have a range of mid-premium brands with a ton of hype in Elijah Craig, Larceny, Henry McKenna and Pikesville Rye. They also have had to borrow a lot of money, estimated at $250 million, to expand in recent years. 2024 would a great time for the Shapira family to win big on that bet on themselves. Molson Coors gets top established brands and doesn't just dip a toe in like with Blue Run. It comes in with a full boot and big splash
Molson uses Bardstown to contract distill
You're suggesting Four Roses will get bought from Kirin?🤔
Been a prediction of mine for 3 yrs
Lol
My prediction… I get drunk a lot this year
Fred is that a Salvation Army pin on your lapel?
It’s a combat veteran given members / alumni of Delta Chi
Don’t fkn breathe that 4R blasphemy to reality!!! Take it back Fred! Take. It. Back!
Go woke. Go Broke. Job well done consumer.
My prediction is Fred will start wearing a bow tie
Lol
No
Capitalism at work. The market has become too flooded. I expect a contraction, as well as a price reduction.