Got Charizard crowned on the first day, i was like showing my phone excitedly bec its that shiny (thought its one of the normal EXs) and didn't realize it was that rare
I've been rerolling for all the crown rares, I've rerolled hundreds of times (from start until you complete the beginner quests and roll 10 packs at once) and my two rarest rolls have been a gold crown mewtwo, and then another account that rolled a gold crown mew, then immediately rolled a gold crown pikachu on the very next pack, it was insane. I've also rolled a god pack, with 2x 2gold star and 3x 1gold star cards. 😂
So discarding rare packs, you have 3 possible events where you get a crown card Let's say the 4th and 5th card pulls are 'x' and 'y' when you don't get a crown, respectively, and 'a' and 'b' when you do get a crown So the events would be: ab, ay, and xb So the probability of getting a crown rare in a normal pack would be: 0.0004 * 0.0016 + 0.0004 * 0.9984 + 0.9996 * 0.0016 = 0.001999 = ~0.20% correct?
Wow thats the proper notation and everything, nice! I believe you are correct, though my formula was a bit different, because what I was calculating for was slightly different (not better or worse just different intent). I accounted for rare packs, and also, I wanted to calculate for getting '1' card in a pack, so, for example, the odds of getting any 1 diamond card became ~299%, since you would typically get ~3. This was because I wanted to see how many packs to get just 1 card, or a specific card. I hope that explains it a bit. I'm psyched to see such good math in the comment section keep up the smarts!
It depends how you plan to play going forward. I'm putting out a new video soon giving advice based on everyone's individual playstyles. However let me try to answer your question now as best as I can. I would say that 5 immersive mewtwos is GREAT trading fodder, so it depends on how much you want a gold card. If you just want a good roll, I think you got it. I don't have ANY mewtwos yet. Also gold cards are the same stat-wise as their less rare counterparts, just gold colored. But, if you really want one of the rarest gold cards, then could be worth rerolling until you get one. My advice: Do what sounds the most fun for you! Its a game, we should do what makes us enjoy it :)
@SneakyDragon Since the battles don't have rewards, I decided to reroll for a Crown Rare but I'm getting tired now and losing hope already. I had a progress with 2 Immersive Mewtwos but decided to reroll again for a chance of Crown Rare. :(
@chespinpokemon909 Each reroll gives you about 40-60 packs with all the beginner bonuses. I know another TH-camr who did 18 or so rerolls before their first crown. If my math is right you should get one in 12-20 rerolls (12 average 20 safety) to get to 500+packs, or 40-70 to get to 1500+ if you want a specific crown. But luck is very random. That is a lot. If you are having fun and a crown card would make you very happy, go for it! But if you get tired of rerolling, stop on a roll that makes you feel good. Luck tends to average out over time, so if you enjoy the game and open your 2.3 free packs a day for a month or two you might get one eventually. I think my next vid will help with decisions like this sorry its taking me so long I was visiting family and getting some work done today. I should have it up in 1-2 days.
@@chespinpokemon909 I'll add one more thing, another event just dropped with special cards. (I panic made a video so my other vid is pushed off til friday :( ) you might want to lock in over the next day or two unless you really really want that gold card, because there are lots of other fun cards to get that might be around in a more limited way.
@@SneakyDragon Omg, you won't believe it! I just got not one but TWO Crown Rares just now! The 5-day rerolls were really worth it! I just can't believe what just happened. 😭
For 3 star cards: how is it possible that it takes on average the same number of packs for *any* 3 star card, as it takes for a *specific* 3 star card?
Great question! Each booster only has 1 single 3 star card possible inside! So, since there is only 1 possibility for a specific 3 star card in any given booster, getting 'any' 3 star is the same as getting that specific one! For example, only 3 star card available in the charizard pack for genetic apex is the immersive charizard. It is not possible to get any other 3 star in that pack.
Pack 1 - Mewtwo Immersive First 20 packs - 3x 2*star cards 1 God pack - all 1 stars duplicates Here’s where things get weird tho. In 2,000 cards collected! -not a single Charizard (of any rarity, even the diamond) -took wonder picking a pidgeotto to get 1 -NEVER pulled the 1 diamond Froakie card -zero gold cards Did 6 different 10 pulls, 2 of each pack. -1 full art slowpoke -1 diamond Snorlax -1 diamond EX Venasuar -297 cards all 1-2 diamond rarity (Yes I did 3 full 10-pulls and didn’t even get a 3 diamond) So my account proves you can be pure luck, and also completely unlucky. Starting the game with immersive Mewtwo my 9th ever card. To never once pulling a Froakie after 2,200 cards collected. This game is 100% random (Also I disagree, wonder picking smaller things is better. Nothing feels worse than wasting 3-4 points and getting a 1 diamond rarity for it. Those 4 points might of grabbed me 4 common cards I needed for collection/deck. Small cost equals more chances and cards collected. I wonder picked for full Art Eevee 12 times, never found it)
Yup, its totally random. This is an amazing example too thanks for sharing! The numbers in the video are based on 'average luck' and assume you are looking for a one specific card not EVERY specific card. For example, if you are looking for froakie and just froakie, on average it should take 17 pulls from now, though of course, it could take up to 30, or more with very bad luck! Though not finding one at all in 2k is weird so I wanted to warn you that froakie is ONLY in 1 of the packs I believe (the charizard pack?), though you probably know that already I wanted to make sure to let you know just in case. It is also REALLY cheap in the points shop if you absolutely want it, like 5 pack points or something?
Arent you guaranteed a crown card of your choice as long as you pull on their respective pack? Like you cant get a crown Charizard card in a Mewtwo pack.
When opening a pack the pack opening animation was glitching out bad and i had to close the app and enter again, lo and behold i got the crown rare Charizard ex from the pack i chose. Pretty cool but not sure if I'm the only one with this problem and I definitely would prefer if they added a skip button for the animation
@SneakyDragon yeah it was strange idk if it's the packs being 3D models but they stretched like Bethesda NPC and the swipe to open the pack wouldn't register half the time. I really hope they fix that
@@tsukainova1928 I did a quick search an found this : community.pokemon.com/en-us/discussion/13947/graphics-corruption-glitches-making-game-unplayable-on-certain-models-of-phone looks like its happening on some phones. hope they fix it soon!
TLDR: Do not wonder pick from a batch of cards that do not include a rare card of at least 2 stars Do not spend your pack points unless you are absolutely needing it to complete a deck for a tournament or PvP
Oof I'm sorry to hear that! The numbers in the video are average luck, so for every person who pulled one in 10 packs, someone won't get one in 2500 packs. Thank you for the comment though, its good to get confirmation on these as folks tend to only comment when they got really lucky! I hope you get some good cards soon
My luck has been insane, a god pack with crown rare mewtwo, immersive rare mewtwo and 2* rare mewtwo. I pulled a second crown and immersive rare mewto after that in seperate packs and an immersive rare charizard in 108 packs.
You should absolutely craft missing common cards from packs you no longer wish to open that you need to complete a deck. I was missing a ralts and wanted nothing else from mewtwo packs. By your logic, I should have continued opening possibly 17 mewtwo packs instead of just spending 35 pack points. That makes no sense.
That is true! The advice you are referencing was for when you still have many more free packs to open. I have another video in the works with more complete and generalized advice, and based on your feedback I think I'll try to get it out next week. I thought I did say at one point though that you could spend pack points if you desperately needed something you could spend the points on it? Maybe I'm thinking of something else though. Anyway, I recognize you from another comment, glad you are enjoying my vids and thanks for the feedback as always :)
I got crown Mewtwo on my 3rd pack, and another crown Mewtwo on a god pack a little bit after xD ( I am playing as a free to play) My Mewtwo deck looks golden lol Also, what are the chance of having a god pack ? I am curious about how lucky I am
Indeed! I mentioned it on on one of the slides but a few folks have pointed it out. I'll try to be more clear in future videos. Thanks for the feedback!
wait i just saw someone else say you cant get it from a wonder pull, unless you can get it from the mewtwo pack thats where i got mine because i didnt even start getting pikachu packs until the next day. huh, upon further investigation it actually doesnt have the pikachu label on its description so maybe i did get it from a mewtwo pack? is it possible for the crowns to show up in any of the 3? i didnt know it was rare at the time but i was rippin 10 pulls and wonder pulls
Congrats on that early luck! That is actually not uncommon from a probability standpoint. Randomness isn't even, its messy. Over 100, 200 packs though you should see statistically likely results. (i.e. playing for about a month or so). Hope you get more rares though :D
Sorry to hear that! Good luck going forward! Also remember the cown cards are not really any better than regular cards; same stats! I am going to make a vid on that soon so folks don't feel too bad if they didn't pull one.
you're just getting lucky. if the bent packs had any higher chance, the game would be required to list it in the offering rates section. if they didn't, there's a good chance their game would be banned in many places.
Got the crown rare charizard first day, didn’t even realise it was good 😂
Because it isn’t. Don’t be a dum-dum
Wow nice!
Omg same!! Not only once but got twice! I believe it was 2~4 10 pulls,,, Surprising really- (arcsteff is my acc, u could check out if you'd like!)
Me getting mewtwo gold and my friend who played a month already getting so angry😂
I got the gold Pikachu first day 😂
8:04 try to use one charge on a pick where most of the card there are not in your collection yet.
Didn’t realize my first pack getting a crown rare pikachu was that nuts
Got Charizard crowned on the first day, i was like showing my phone excitedly bec its that shiny (thought its one of the normal EXs) and didn't realize it was that rare
Congrats!
You can’t get crown rare or immersive in wonder pick
Indeed. I added a note to a few of the slides about that.
not true, I got my immersive mew 2 from wonder pick
@@huai6125 maybe rare mewtwo but not immersive bro not possible
@@SneakyDragon Then what would you recommended wonder picking for if that's off the table
Get real cards, nerds
I assume 4 diamond cards are worth more mainly because they are given to strong ex cards, then a common gold star card
You assume right
Indeed
I've been rerolling for all the crown rares, I've rerolled hundreds of times (from start until you complete the beginner quests and roll 10 packs at once) and my two rarest rolls have been a gold crown mewtwo, and then another account that rolled a gold crown mew, then immediately rolled a gold crown pikachu on the very next pack, it was insane. I've also rolled a god pack, with 2x 2gold star and 3x 1gold star cards. 😂
So discarding rare packs, you have 3 possible events where you get a crown card
Let's say the 4th and 5th card pulls are 'x' and 'y' when you don't get a crown, respectively, and 'a' and 'b' when you do get a crown
So the events would be: ab, ay, and xb
So the probability of getting a crown rare in a normal pack would be:
0.0004 * 0.0016 + 0.0004 * 0.9984 + 0.9996 * 0.0016 = 0.001999 = ~0.20%
correct?
Wow thats the proper notation and everything, nice! I believe you are correct, though my formula was a bit different, because what I was calculating for was slightly different (not better or worse just different intent). I accounted for rare packs, and also, I wanted to calculate for getting '1' card in a pack, so, for example, the odds of getting any 1 diamond card became ~299%, since you would typically get ~3. This was because I wanted to see how many packs to get just 1 card, or a specific card. I hope that explains it a bit. I'm psyched to see such good math in the comment section keep up the smarts!
I've been rerolling for days and I encountered 5 Immersive Mewtwos so far and no Crown Rares. Should I continue rerolling for a CR?
It depends how you plan to play going forward. I'm putting out a new video soon giving advice based on everyone's individual playstyles. However let me try to answer your question now as best as I can. I would say that 5 immersive mewtwos is GREAT trading fodder, so it depends on how much you want a gold card. If you just want a good roll, I think you got it. I don't have ANY mewtwos yet. Also gold cards are the same stat-wise as their less rare counterparts, just gold colored. But, if you really want one of the rarest gold cards, then could be worth rerolling until you get one. My advice: Do what sounds the most fun for you! Its a game, we should do what makes us enjoy it :)
@SneakyDragon Since the battles don't have rewards, I decided to reroll for a Crown Rare but I'm getting tired now and losing hope already. I had a progress with 2 Immersive Mewtwos but decided to reroll again for a chance of Crown Rare. :(
@chespinpokemon909 Each reroll gives you about 40-60 packs with all the beginner bonuses. I know another TH-camr who did 18 or so rerolls before their first crown. If my math is right you should get one in 12-20 rerolls (12 average 20 safety) to get to 500+packs, or 40-70 to get to 1500+ if you want a specific crown. But luck is very random. That is a lot. If you are having fun and a crown card would make you very happy, go for it! But if you get tired of rerolling, stop on a roll that makes you feel good. Luck tends to average out over time, so if you enjoy the game and open your 2.3 free packs a day for a month or two you might get one eventually. I think my next vid will help with decisions like this sorry its taking me so long I was visiting family and getting some work done today. I should have it up in 1-2 days.
@@chespinpokemon909 I'll add one more thing, another event just dropped with special cards. (I panic made a video so my other vid is pushed off til friday :( ) you might want to lock in over the next day or two unless you really really want that gold card, because there are lots of other fun cards to get that might be around in a more limited way.
@@SneakyDragon Omg, you won't believe it! I just got not one but TWO Crown Rares just now! The 5-day rerolls were really worth it! I just can't believe what just happened. 😭
For 3 star cards: how is it possible that it takes on average the same number of packs for *any* 3 star card, as it takes for a *specific* 3 star card?
Great question! Each booster only has 1 single 3 star card possible inside! So, since there is only 1 possibility for a specific 3 star card in any given booster, getting 'any' 3 star is the same as getting that specific one! For example, only 3 star card available in the charizard pack for genetic apex is the immersive charizard. It is not possible to get any other 3 star in that pack.
@@SneakyDragon oh duh, makes sense!
Pack 1 - Mewtwo Immersive
First 20 packs - 3x 2*star cards
1 God pack - all 1 stars duplicates
Here’s where things get weird tho.
In 2,000 cards collected!
-not a single Charizard (of any rarity, even the diamond)
-took wonder picking a pidgeotto to get 1
-NEVER pulled the 1 diamond Froakie card
-zero gold cards
Did 6 different 10 pulls, 2 of each pack.
-1 full art slowpoke
-1 diamond Snorlax
-1 diamond EX Venasuar
-297 cards all 1-2 diamond rarity
(Yes I did 3 full 10-pulls and didn’t even get a 3 diamond)
So my account proves you can be pure luck, and also completely unlucky. Starting the game with immersive Mewtwo my 9th ever card. To never once pulling a Froakie after 2,200 cards collected. This game is 100% random
(Also I disagree, wonder picking smaller things is better. Nothing feels worse than wasting 3-4 points and getting a 1 diamond rarity for it. Those 4 points might of grabbed me 4 common cards I needed for collection/deck. Small cost equals more chances and cards collected. I wonder picked for full Art Eevee 12 times, never found it)
Yup, its totally random. This is an amazing example too thanks for sharing! The numbers in the video are based on 'average luck' and assume you are looking for a one specific card not EVERY specific card. For example, if you are looking for froakie and just froakie, on average it should take 17 pulls from now, though of course, it could take up to 30, or more with very bad luck! Though not finding one at all in 2k is weird so I wanted to warn you that froakie is ONLY in 1 of the packs I believe (the charizard pack?), though you probably know that already I wanted to make sure to let you know just in case. It is also REALLY cheap in the points shop if you absolutely want it, like 5 pack points or something?
Arent you guaranteed a crown card of your choice as long as you pull on their respective pack? Like you cant get a crown Charizard card in a Mewtwo pack.
No only the immersive cards are dedicated to their packs, you can pull all 3 crown cards in any pack which makes it random.
A lot of cards are dedicated, including some 1 diamond cards! You can check in the pack listings, or in the card-dex if a card is restricted or not!
I pulled crown rare Pikachu in a Charizard pack
When opening a pack the pack opening animation was glitching out bad and i had to close the app and enter again, lo and behold i got the crown rare Charizard ex from the pack i chose. Pretty cool but not sure if I'm the only one with this problem and I definitely would prefer if they added a skip button for the animation
Wow! hadn't seen that glitch, but congrats on the charizard!
@SneakyDragon yeah it was strange idk if it's the packs being 3D models but they stretched like Bethesda NPC and the swipe to open the pack wouldn't register half the time. I really hope they fix that
@@tsukainova1928 I did a quick search an found this : community.pokemon.com/en-us/discussion/13947/graphics-corruption-glitches-making-game-unplayable-on-certain-models-of-phone
looks like its happening on some phones. hope they fix it soon!
I opened about 200 packs, i have pretty much every card in each rarity bar 2-3. Yet the two star cards are insane, i barely have any
TLDR: Do not wonder pick from a batch of cards that do not include a rare card of at least 2 stars
Do not spend your pack points unless you are absolutely needing it to complete a deck for a tournament or PvP
2,658 cards, no golds....
Oof I'm sorry to hear that! The numbers in the video are average luck, so for every person who pulled one in 10 packs, someone won't get one in 2500 packs. Thank you for the comment though, its good to get confirmation on these as folks tend to only comment when they got really lucky! I hope you get some good cards soon
One my first day, I got a Golden Crown Pikachu
And an Immersive Mewtwo Ex!!
So excited, but I want Charizard!
How much are the crown cards worth individually?
Do you mean pack points? 2,500 pack points. You would have to open 500 packs to get this many points in the game.
I got crown Mewtwo in my 3rd pack from my pikachu pack letsgoo (then went on to have the worst luck for building pikachu ex deck)
Luck usually averages out over time. Congrats on the Mewtwo! Good luck on future zappies!
255 cards 42 packs not a dime spent 2 of the 3 star immersive mew two and charzard and 1 crown rare pikachu
My luck has been insane, a god pack with crown rare mewtwo, immersive rare mewtwo and 2* rare mewtwo. I pulled a second crown and immersive rare mewto after that in seperate packs and an immersive rare charizard in 108 packs.
That is amazing luck! The god packs are .05% chance I believe so 1/2000 odds and you got it in 100! Congrats!
I've been rerolling for 3 days lol. I'm dead set on a crown card. I've gotten that immersive mewtwo like 9 times, no crown card yet.
Good luck!
i got crowns back to back hit a 10 pack got crown charizard then did a single pack and got a mewtwo crown
Wow insane luck!
Got 2 crown rare pikachus in a row, i thought the rarest were the immersive arts haha
Wow thats some amazing luck! Congrats and the pikachus and glad my vid helped explain the rarities :D
You should absolutely craft missing common cards from packs you no longer wish to open that you need to complete a deck. I was missing a ralts and wanted nothing else from mewtwo packs. By your logic, I should have continued opening possibly 17 mewtwo packs instead of just spending 35 pack points. That makes no sense.
That is true! The advice you are referencing was for when you still have many more free packs to open. I have another video in the works with more complete and generalized advice, and based on your feedback I think I'll try to get it out next week. I thought I did say at one point though that you could spend pack points if you desperately needed something you could spend the points on it? Maybe I'm thinking of something else though. Anyway, I recognize you from another comment, glad you are enjoying my vids and thanks for the feedback as always :)
I got a crown Charizard in I think 16 pack's. Couldn't believe it.
Congrats!
Got a god pack first day and ended with 2 gold pikas.
Yea I got the crown picachue on my 1st pack
Wow epic luck!
I don’t have any crowned cards. But i got a god pack (1 in 2000) were all 5 cards were rare on day 1 🔥
Wow nice! Those are so cool congrats!
I have all crowned cards with a total of 988 cards and a spare meotwo crown 😁
I got crown Mewtwo on my 3rd pack, and another crown Mewtwo on a god pack a little bit after xD ( I am playing as a free to play)
My Mewtwo deck looks golden lol
Also, what are the chance of having a god pack ? I am curious about how lucky I am
I believe around 1/2000
Correct!
You can’t wonderpick 3 star or crown btw
Indeed! I mentioned it on on one of the slides but a few folks have pointed it out. I'll try to be more clear in future videos. Thanks for the feedback!
I got golden crown charizard on my first day 5th pack
Nice!
i have the crown pikachu
Thanks for letting us know
@levii_00 Thanks no problem
first day i got the crown pikachu from a wonder pull lol
wait i just saw someone else say you cant get it from a wonder pull, unless you can get it from the mewtwo pack thats where i got mine because i didnt even start getting pikachu packs until the next day. huh, upon further investigation it actually doesnt have the pikachu label on its description so maybe i did get it from a mewtwo pack? is it possible for the crowns to show up in any of the 3? i didnt know it was rare at the time but i was rippin 10 pulls and wonder pulls
@@proofmr2 I got my 2 crown mewtwo on charizard packs lol, some cards can be obtained in any of the 3 packs (they are not exclusive)
I got 8 hits in my first 15 packs and nothing since
Congrats on that early luck! That is actually not uncommon from a probability standpoint. Randomness isn't even, its messy. Over 100, 200 packs though you should see statistically likely results. (i.e. playing for about a month or so). Hope you get more rares though :D
I got crown rare pikachu in my first pikachu booster pack😂
Wow Congrats!
680 packs no crown
Sorry to hear that! Good luck going forward! Also remember the cown cards are not really any better than regular cards; same stats! I am going to make a vid on that soon so folks don't feel too bad if they didn't pull one.
@@SneakyDragon u r so nice thx
Got gold Charizard and pikachu in one day
Wow Nice!
already got crown mewtew
Congrats!
took me about 90 ish packs for a Crown rare golden Picka
I have it too. I think they added some magic for new players with that card. (Or we both got very lucky :D)
You both got very lucky lol, I'm > 200 packs and no crown rares
@@griffin9649fuckin wow
@@griffin9649 wow thats a lot of packs! Sorry to hear that. Hope things turn around.
lmao got the golden crown pikachu first day
Nice! Thats super lucky!
TIP: Search for packets with a bent on the corner, today i opened one and got the immersive Pikachu EX
you're just getting lucky. if the bent packs had any higher chance, the game would be required to list it in the offering rates section. if they didn't, there's a good chance their game would be banned in many places.
Correct, I think the bendy pack theory has ben debunked. maybe I should put out a video proving it is debunked. Still, congrats on the pikachu!!!!!!
@@SneakyDragon thx