Moneyball in Football Manager
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 เม.ย. 2022
- READ FULLY -- Moneyball Excel Sheet (Create a copy in the top left to use for yourself, click File--Make a Copy): zealand.gg/moneyball
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It is finally here. I teased it on Twitter and the response was overwhelming. I honestly thought I was nerding out too much, but I must’ve forgotten who was playing Football Manager in the first place. All love, of course, I’m right there with you, I am absolutely pumped for this. I hope it revolutionizes scouting in Football Manager for years to come. At least it will make scouting in FM cooler than before.
I love when we are able to do stuff like this. Sometimes a simple email turns into a video that will change the way people play the game. I did not anticipate that. Then Ayal just went off putting together the spreadsheet and all I did was provide the framework and pretty face to top it off. I should be talking more about what this is but I am too excited. Enjoy an actual spreadsheet with your next wonderkid on it.
Much Love,
FM Senpai
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Please read the part where you make a copy of the sheet for yourself, if you request access from me you will miss your next penalty in FM
My inbox is in trouble
U did not use ur actual email id!
@@aditya7428 My email is publicly available for people and companies to contact me - but I didn't consider how many people would try to request access to the actual sheet
Sorry, I've read this to late and will accept the penalty miss that will come as a consequence
@@pedrocachapuz5958 tbf I haven't requested, but I know I will miss my next penalty in FM
@@OllyPotts Just like Thanos it is inevitible
So this is when i realise as a 41 year old thats been playing this game since 1993 that i am clearly in the the Big Ron/Neil Warnock mould of manager. That is, what i want to know when it comes to signing players, "CAN THE BOY PLAY?", if yes sign, if no move on.
U playing fifa hopefully?
“Great jaw line, 5 tool athlete, great face. Marketable future star.” (Wish that would contribute to monies coming in).
Or “he’s got an ugly girlfriend. You know what that means, no confidence.” We need a S.O. metric… comon SI!!!
If the boy can play, he can play, if he can't play, he can't, I don't need numbers for any stats except goals, and assists
@@roaarylion5214 Fifa International 97? Completed it son. Check out PES 5, where the real cats belong.
This comment is a real Gem
Moneyball + FM + Spreadsheets = Magnificent. No other word for it!
You wrote "spreadsheets" twice
The fact you used Leicester signing kante for your intro into this had genuinely made my day 😂👏👏👏👏
Up the foxes
@@j.o.m.o.photography kante is nothing without caen ❤️💙
@@charliedyble8298 i Caen completely understand why you'd say that.
@@scottchapman3937 I Caen’t believe you would make that joke.
Leicester are master at moneyball
The most incredible moneyball situation I had was where my director of football found a teenager in Colombia who we signed for 800k and then sold to Leicester for 90million a few years later.
Congrats mate. How were his stats? I'm curious
For me it was a Brazilian, Brenner who signed for my OL side at 8.5 million and Sold for 110 Million pounds to Real Madrid. Best one was a Dutch striker signed on a free at 18 for OL and sold to Man City for 120 million pounds. Now I'm with Leicester and that same player made my life living hell lol
@@lucacerullo3468 I'd have to boot up the old save to find out. But we were in the Turkish league so wasn't too hard for him I think he averaged just under 20 goal involvements a season
Reminds me of the long dead Dugout forums and CM01/02 discussions, culminating in the "The John Hartson Certainty Principle". The logic went thus: the average ability in the top divisions was 130-150. Therefore to win the league you just needed to beat 15 teams consistently, and give good accounts against the other 5. You could do this by adding to your squad players that were in the 145 - 165 range, AND by optimising their ability scores. John Hartson was one such player that epitomised this process. A 160 player with 20's in all the workrate and teamwork and determination and so on. The objective was therefore simple: be faster, be stronger, work harder, jump higher and be otherwise competent. This process turned 450k players into £3m to £5m players you could sell - and then watch them not get played by the other team and eventually buy them back (if you wished). The constant profit led to better players in season 2 and season 3 - by which point any young players and stars should have matured, and financially you should have been able to improve your training systems etc.
This principle still holds true somewhat.
Zealand now has an expected shirt change per video of 1.0
For a true moneyball it should includes salaries (and / or market value).
Being able to calculate something like a XG per € would be amazing to easily find some potential steals
Edit: IT'S GREAT ! IT'S INCLUDED IN THE EXPORT ! You can make the calculation yourself, thanks Zealand Imma gonna waste a lot of time on this spreadsheet!
yeah, tho moneyball even in baseball now could means a lot of things. either you sign competitive and efficient players in cheap, discovering hidden gem like bad results with good peripherals, etc.
Yeah this is interesting
But you can do that in the initial searching before exporting the players into excel.
@@phteven9610 no you can't. I want to see ratios and stuff like that
how can i do it myself?
Props to Zealand to give credit to its original creator.
Holy shit Zealand you're turning the FM community into something else.
tbh, i have seen and read a lot about moneyball in football manager and i have to say its up there with the others i have read or watched . great work
If you like analytics you could try learning a coding language.
The way you interact with the community is amazing it’s always appreciated ❤
This is awesome. Thank you for all the hard work Alex and the Zealand team!
I love your videos. I play this game since Championship Manager, but it has grown so much that now, having 2 kids, I barely have time to get into all these details myself. Thank you!
I've also been playing with CM/FM since '95, I remember in '95 only the italian league was playable und Del Piero was only a talent :) Having 2 children I also have problem to have enough time for FM, that's why are youtube videos like this so important, you can get tactics and training shedule etc. ready and that saves you a lot of time.
It'd be really cool to get a follow-up video on how to best use these stats to find players, 'cause I won't lie, it's a bit overwhelming trying to figure it out by myself
nice profile picture
You need clear understanding of what u're looking for what kind of player u would make into gem in ur system then even its not potential player 29 years old guy or smt u can make him worth smt after 1-2 years later or maybe a good sign for ur team not making money out of him by selling it. it really depends u need have a objective and ur strengths weakness imo then u would be more clear when ure looking into these screen and u'd filter more specificly for each transfer scout section.
I've done this for a couple of years. A couple of successes:
1) a Mexican DLP who I signed for €650k with Rosenborg and sold to Chelsea for €60M a few years later.
2) a Slovakian AMC who I signed for €2m with Rosenborg and sold to Man Utd for €80M a few years later.
3) a Polish CB who I signed for Lazio for €170k and he was essential to winning three Champions League titles.
Mexico sometimes produces great talents
I bought one Mexican player for 1.2 million and i sold it for 90 million the second season he was with me
I won my first Bundesliga with schalke with him on my team and a couple of talents
That’s not moneyball, that’s just making large net profits
@@samuellarsson101 I presume he's been signing them based on statistics
How did you do this?
@@jackoberto01 The term moneyball is regularly misused particularly in this instance where many people think selling a player for huge profit is moneyball, that’s just “flipping”. I doubt he acquired them on “real” moneyball grounds, sorry for being pedantic 😅
Thanks a lot for the shoutout! What an honor 🙏
This is incredible i wish that we would get such a detailed way of analyzing statistics in football manager itself and that these stats would be explained further in scout reports which then would effect the rating a scout gives about a player this would make selection between players way better since you could than see who of the players on your shortlist is performing better
This is truly incredible fair play. I have been playing FM since 2004 and this is something players could dream of.
This is actually really cool. Found something on the FM forums which gave true scores based on relevance to position and role. Found that incredibly useful for Squad Evaluation and finding players but this looks like it will take it a step further.
got a link?
This is one the greatest pieces of work I have ever seen. Superb. Congratulations to all involved.
ok so this has finally convinced me to get FM22, on the fence for ages as I enjoy fm21 and fm22 is very different but I'm a sucker for advanced analytics and the 'Moneyball' approach Z i love you
Mindblowing the amount of work that must have went into this..awesome work from you and the team as always .Thanks
Took about 4 hours to make the spreadsheet work, most of it was making sure low sample sizes didn't influence the stats as much so to not mislead anyone.
Great job all, thanks to the team behind it, thanks to the video editing team. It is wonderful.
Let’s go do a moneyball!
Watched Alex’s video, if you speak German, it is worth it and should work with some modifications in FM22 as well.
This is absolutely brilliant! I look forward to trying it out.
Thanks and congratulations to everyone involved!
I've heard of moneyball before, but I finally watched the film a couple of days ago. Perfect timing to implement it into my new journeyman save.
Hey Z, don't forget to add the link to this video in your FM Base descriptions! It says it isn't up yet, but here I am commenting on it. Thanks for everything you and your team do for this game and community.
The important thang zealand for got to say it's that it's best to do this at the end of the season before the break thats when you have the most data
100% - you can also filter the apps column to keep it at a decent sample size i.e. 15+ or so.
Noice tip mate
I've money balled a few times, its something I'll do when my scouts cant find me a player that I need. Will say I've been using a lot more basic form. cant wait to give this a try.
After seeing you post about this on twitter and RDFs response I was enthused to create my own version.
I created various in game views for different positions which I load up on request. I still think its important to scout players though to find out things like attitude and injury susceptibility.
For me personally I find my way of loading views a lot easier and you can go straight to the player as you're still playing FM.
might seem like a minor detail, but that no scrolling after ctrl+a tip is a lifesaver!
He did a great job of highlighting how important it was. If he had just mentioned it the comments probably would have been filled with people asking about that exact issue lol
Where has this been all of my life? The term 'addiction' to this game will no longer suffice. Fantastic work.
TOP TIP! Obviously we know someone in the Welsh division isn't going to perform in the English Premier but what you can do is look at the leagues reputation & clubs reputation (the star rating) find leagues with a similar rating to yours and this will help keep the player search down.
If you're managing a smaller club with the scout package of the nation you're managing in. Assign scouts to leagues with similar rep to yours (or hire staff) This should help bring players to your attention.
I've been using something similar, a customised view of my own on the player search. I can't wait to test out the spreadsheet though! The pretty colours will make things visually better! Great work.
That is one of the most disturbingly genius things I’ve ever seen related to a game. As a scout and fm lover, I literally watched this video like this 😍
The trouble I have with this is, the data that is generated, is the data in the current season correct? Because what i noticed is, you cannot find data from previous seasons which make it difficult to understand the context...Is this player have a one season wonder or is he like that overrall ?
Yeah, that's a limitation of FM so we gotta work with what we have
I guess if you're that nerdy you could download and save the db every year. If (as it should) it includes player ID you can then easily compare
@@ah_effe that's exactly what I'll do, I am that nerdy 😂😂
@@phteven9610 what I did was to create a save file at the end of every season, e.g. Season 21-22. Analyze the players within my scouting package (as the downloadable database has all players scouted or not) and ran my filters over it. Then I created a shortlist and imported the shortlist in a spreadsheet with key data (just 3 to 5 categories) to then compare the players. Also has the advantage that you just see the key data for several seasons :)
@@marcwun6347 that's a good way of doing it
I liked the animation, I would like to watch an entire series
This is hands down the coolest thing I've ever seen in fm.
yyou have no idea how much i wanted this video. every year i try to money ball but iuts never truly moneyball, cheers z
I play since fm 2010 12 years later i explore this channel thanks yo youtube recomandation
I literally watched Moneyball for the first time yesterday, the intro is hilarious 😭
you get a like just from the intro!
That intro was fantastic!!
and you can take this a step further by using charts, which is something I have used when I have a lot of different targets to consider
So happy to see people getting properly credited!
A huge aspect of moneyball when you still aren't a Champions League team is loaning in players (can grow faster and are much cheaper than fighting to the death for free agents closer to their prime, that extract top dollar)
This is so cool moneyball is so important if you have a limited budget
I tried this, and within two windows i signed 3 wonderkids (none of them had the wonder kid tag when I initially signed them btw). I recommend scouting in Eastern Europe and then picking the best players stats wise that are either u21 or u19 in age.
I loved the intro so much
I tried my own version of Moneyball back in FM20, but it is very simplistic and as a test for finding the best striker within my team. So what I did was create my own excel sheet, manually insert three stats from their games.
- S p/G
- S on target p/G
- G p/G
How I found my best striker in my team is by playing them each in 3 different games, and theoretically picking them.
Pros for me is -
Low S p/G + High S on target p/G = good
Low S p/G + High S on target p/G + High G p/G = good
High S p/G + High S on target p/G + High G p/G = better
Cons -
High S p/G - Low S on target p/G = bad
High S p/G - High S on target p/G - Low G p/G = bad
Low S p/G - Even lower S on target p/G = bad
Low S p/G - High S on target p/G - Low G p/G = bad
There are many things I did , but I can’t quite remember. but this is the closest I have came to “Moneyball-esque” gameplay back in 2019-20. Good vid, Zealand ! Can’t wait to try this out .
As a real life data analyst and love fm, this is interesting to watch
2:43 happily eating
2:47 no longer hungry
how funny that i watched this movie just last night and now this is out!
Can't wait to sign my Hatteburg and play him at Left Back where it might as well be the moon, and get that injury time winner having given up a three goal lead.
Just watched Moneyball again for the n+1th time last weekend. (this comment was written after the "he gets on base" line in the intro, just cracked me up :D)
Great vid, brother Z. My nerd senses are tingling!
I'm not fully aware of the ins and outs of it, but I'm pretty sure Brentford has been using this sort of moneyball approach for a few years now. Theres a few really good articles on it out there covering it
Yeah Brentford are the main team known for this money ball method.
Nearly everyone is using stats in scouting nowadays. It was something special when it first broke, and it did take some time before it got main stream adoption. But true moneyball is really difficult these days (finding stats about players that ar undervalued, so signing finding great bargains). Almost everything is known by the big clubs, so you won't find hidden gems by just studying stats anymore.
The true moneyball play right now would probably be to implement qualitative analysis of peple in places where there are no stats production. That way, you can poach players before they even have the chance of getting spotlight from the statistics departments of big clubs. I believe there are scouts in places like Nigeria that specialize in this.
@@Taeerom Brentford definitely take money-ball to another level. The main big club who’s known for smart signings at the moment is Liverpool, Luis Diaz, Salah, Mane, Jota, Thiago, but their only true money ball is Robertson. Whereas Brentford bought Saïd Benrahma, Neal Maupay and Ollie Watkins for a combined 8 million and sold them for over 100 million. An astronomical increase, I definitely wouldn’t say it’s impossible.
Liverpool also. John Henry tried to sign Billy Bean as a coach in his baseball team. I think Liverpool have spent less money on players than Everton.
Barnsley used it too. Billy Beane actually had an informal advisory role at Barnsley for a few months a couple years back
Literally the greatest video ever. Had me at google sheets :)
How dare you slander the JD Cymru Premier. It’s a superb league 🏴
love that intro 🔥🔥🔥
As a baseball player this intro was just chef's kiss!
Alex Stewart did something similar yeeeears ago with a really interesting blog covering a save. Worth a read if you can find it, might be on the website the set pieces
This is insane. And funny.
I love dem Wonderkids, but I'll rely on my feeling, not maths :)
dude I speak German and I've just been watching that exact video like a week ago!! that's crazy!!
That intro was fantastic 😂😂😂
We can use the same applications for our team's statistics or for the ones we want to improve or for better players by activating the option to show the players in our own team from the monitoring section. -Sorry my bad English-
2:45 you’re not a snack…you’re a treat!!
Data Scouting is amazing 😍😍
I can already hear that sound
Balla Ciao, Balla Ciao, Balla Ciao Ciao Ciao...🎶
ok, this is epic. I had this idea, but it all seemed too much work :P
The Djurgårdens IF legend Omar Colley
Now this is something I can get behind
Love that intro !!!
Great to see a video from you on Moneyball. It's a genuinely great way to find players. FM20 I signed a striker from the Ivory Coast to a French Ligue 2 side, went on to be the Ligue 1 top scorer! Rewarding way to find players who perform well
Amazing, me nerd, me happy!!! Pivot tables are your friends with data like this.
In terms of scouts and scouting assignments, since this is just using all available players under the generic player search, does it make sense to have scouts do generic nation scouting from say July-Dec, then collect analytics for the Jan window, then continue to do generic nation scouting from Feb-End of Season, then collect analytics again?
Maybe add filters to your scouting assignments to meet team visions, ie players under 30, players of (x) nationality, etc, but it's more about making sure you're hitting as many players as possible in the search page. Save the individual "full" scouting for the windows (or right before the windows start) after you have your targets.
I wish to hire a coach to look at this data because clearly I am way too dumb to even understand or how to interpret anything of these numbers LOL, Standing ovation to Z for doing this and actually being able to understand this stuff and make FM data even more difficult for simple mortals like me 😀 Also... the feeling when FM turns into Harvard Math
That opening but is gold 😂
Really good guide
I wanted to do a similar thing a year ago (not to play fm but cuz I'm a data analyst and would like to play around with a big amount of football data, which is impossible to get for free), and I got stuck when trying to get data for a big amount of players, I'll try this hoping the ctrl+A without scrolling works (as I'd intend to do this for the full database tbh).
One big suggestion I would give however is: use excel, not Google sheets.
Google sheets is limited by Google both in the number of cells and the speed of calculation, as you are using their servers for free.
Excel is much faster and allows to use a lot more data.
Also conditional formatting (which is the thing used to change cell color based on the numbers inside the cells) slows performance A LOT, so don't overuse it like in this case
Can someone briefly explain to me how I can digest these stats? Like what should I be looking for? Thanks!
It depends what type of way you look at it, there’s 2 ways in my opinion;
1) to upgrade already solid positions - this is to make ur team from good to elite and should be looking for stats per 90 to show the most productive players and how good they are.
2) to replace average players - you should look at value, contract, and also stats per 90 depending on their position and how you wanna play them (successfull pressures per 90 for a PF for example)
A spreadsheet is our lord and saviour when it comes to doing Moneyballing to identify the players who are worth playing for our club by analyzing their stats per season.
Best intro ever
Great work mate! Do you happen to know if the spreadsheet will work with data from FM21 as well? Much obgliged for an answer and keep up the good work!! FAC ftw!
Update: yes it does (apart from the really cool selfmade "Defensive actions per 90")
In real life moneyball wouldn't work as good in football as in baseball.
It's because baseball is more dependent on the player himself where as in football players could overachieve in statistics because of their team or the way his coach uses him etc.
And also underachieve (supposedly) which would probably be even more common, e.g Paul Scholes didn't get that many assists.
Yeah in RL the "moneyball" approach is better used to find key players on teams in their system for matchup specific changes to your tactics if you can.
That said I think most people already kind of understand that without going that in depth with the statistics based on just tactical understanding and being aware of match performances for the players throughout the year lol.
whenever i sort it just goes back to original after a couple of seconds
I woul love to see this for fm23 right now, or fm24 when it releases as it is very cool
This is amazing
around 10:30 i believe you read the xG over/under performance the wrong way around no?
love this
Which of these stats are the most important in your opinions? E.g. xg per shot or key passes per 90?
Thanks for always recommending loans. I'm in my 3rd season with Real Madrid and I still can't believe I loaned in Wesley Fofana, Virgil Van Dijk, Ruben Dias, Joan Cancelo and Kevin De Bruyne for 2 seasons all for just €15m😹😹😹
This is amazing! Is there an analysis like this for irl leagues?
FIRE INTRO
The brad Pitt jawline joke made me subscribe 😂
Oh my mother aya. This is..... exquisite
This is ace Zealand. 1 additional thing, in Google Sheets you can paste the values to the search sheet then do Paste Special > Format Only to get the pretty colours too
Yeah, he didn't know that so I left a note on that at 15:13 though if you don't it more than once it can really lag out google sheets
is ther at aby point a version for FM 23 ?
Moneyball is such a good movie, in terms of FM it's maybe redundant for me as I'm already very experienced with finding players to fit my team & goals.
If you still want colors you can just copy and the paste "formatting only" into the search section.
He's got that dawg in em
does anyone know why the "Defensive Actions per 90" are not calculated. iam trying to run the calculation on a german pc, maybe thats the reason?