4680 Synthetic Anode Confirmed // What are the implications?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 เม.ย. 2024
- As a result of testing by UC San Diego, I've confirmed the 4680 uses synthetic anode. The question is, what are the implications of that? To answer that question, today I’m going to walk you through the analysis done by UC San Diego, the differences between synthetic and natural graphite anodes, why Tesla may have chosen synthetic graphite, and what that choice could mean for Tesla’s supply chain.
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
01:34 Clarifying Terminology
02:31 Graphite Analysis by UC San Diego // Scanning Electron Microscope Inspection
04:46 Graphite Analysis by UC San Diego // X-Ray Diffraction
07:28 Natural vs Synthetic Anode // Production
08:51 Natural vs Synthetic Anode // Performance and Cost
10:17 Why did Tesla Choose Synthetic? // Some Perspective
11:56 Why did Tesla Choose Synthetic? // Technical and Supply Chain Reasons
19:52 Odds and Ends // Silicon, Talga, Novonix
21:22 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Your level of analysis, and the graphics, makes the complex information accessible to us mere mortals! Thank you for all your hard work.
Yes, please do a video on liquifying coal. Dude, your content is as rich and well explained as anything I've encountered on the web. Thank you for your incredible work.
You're most welcome man!
@@thelimitingfactor I posted this earlier as well: During your research, you missed that Tesla has signed purchase agreements with two graphite-producing companies. I will share the only one that appears close to delivering the product in 2024: Elon Musk’s company signed an agreement with Australia’s Syrah Resources, which operates one of the world’s largest graphite mines in southern Africa. They have completed phase 1 of their Louisianna Vladia plant, which will start production at the end of Q1 2024 (now and ramp thru year). Syrah has been producing massive amounts of graphite feedstock for China for the last decade, so their mining operations are significant and already producing significant feedstock, which they will start sending to the Louisianna Vladia plant. Lastly, most likely Tesla will be using a blend of synthentic and natural graphite, similar to SKon to get the best cycle life (SK ON supposedly uses a 50-50 mixture). Syrah is also sending feedstock to Westwater Resources, which may have production in 2025.
There is no one who explains these complicated processes better than you. I wish the general population had an interest in these sort of things. I never pass up the opportunity to watch your videos. Thank You for your detailed work.
Professional and well done! I am always blown away by the quality of your productions.
🤠🤜🤛
Watching your videos always reminds me of how important it is the not-so-sexy part of EVs, the battery supply chain.
While we all might be focusing on the sexy new EV models, the big guy is focusing on this important part.
And the LEGA execs STILL “haven’t done the math…” - J B Straubel
A customer (refinery) of the company i work for told me the graphite they produce as a "by product" is now their main product
🎯 I've heard similar
Go Novonix !
On the subject of heat batteries, is the MIT version a realistic proposition for inverting the duck curve overnight at coal fired power stations that have to maintain a load to keep the system at operating temperatures. A pure graphite sink and steam recovery seems like a good option even without the infrared cells.
Brilliant analysis man! Hopefully Tesla is thinking the way you think!
Fabulous video! Every time I thought I might point something out in the comments, you covered it with your next point.
Thank-you.
I love hearing that! Thanks for the comment.
Thank you Jordan for keeping the same feel and look for the thumbnails because I don't even get a chance to look at the title before my subconscious has clicked 😂
LOL! Glad to hear it. I try to keep the general format the same.
TY for giving me a headache ... again and again. 🤔Sure , Iam interested in any video you do. Have a beautiful weekend.
😁 Yeah, eventually I have to maybe make these a little lighter.
@@thelimitingfactorNooooooooooooo
@@40watt_club Is that “No!!!” the squeal we heard from Beaker - Dr Bunsen Honeydew’s assistant?
@@thelimitingfactorAlso, nooooooo!
Love the deep dives, thanks Jordan
Wow, I can only imagine the deep thought and research you did to put this video together. Kudos!
Coal tar video would be awesome! Please and thank you. Great work as always!
Excellent analysis.
Thanks Jordan. I'd also like to see more about coal liquidification and understand the comnercial, environmental and geopolitical implications of using this process.
Another incredibly insightful but concise and logical video!!
Glad you enjoyed it! 🤠
Fantastic video, I learned a lot. A video on coal tar would be great.
great work
Superb analysis, thanks heaps.
Thank you!
I would really enjoy learning about better ways to make artificial graphite. Thank you so much for doing these!
Warm regards, Rick.
Sure thing Rick! Thanks for watching.
Great video!
Excellent analysis. Positively turbostratic :)
😄 Thanks Finlay!
@@thelimitingfactor Thank you for doing what you do sir! Communicating the essence of the techno-economic challenge of anodes is super hard and you knocked it out of the park!
Thank for the video Jordan. I would have been surprised if they didn't use artificial graphite.
Good to have the analysis! Of course it would be better if he also had shown an SEM or XRD of natural graphite as a comparison..
Another awesome presentation! Thank you.
The longevity of synthetic graphite also opens it up for vehicle-to-grid and fewer long-term battery warranty claims for Tesla.
I'm a big fan of Novonix. One small detail you didn't mention is their continuous graphitization furnace technology. This technique improves energy efficiency and environmental pollutants when compared to Acheson furnaces used in China. Same goes for their DPMG cathode production tech. IMO, traditional anode/production techniques are going to be hard to scale in America due to unacceptable pollution levels.
This video could become a review paper by itself! NICE!
Amazing Video !! and Liquid Coal yes please. Being able to make and use graphite is also key to make use of graphite's heat spreading properties not only for the Battery but also likely SpaceX etc.
I didn't expect to hear my hometown of Lake Charles mentioned in regards to EVs. It was a pleasant surprise to find out we can help with the transition to BEVs and grid storage.
❤️
Fantastic video as always. I'm curious to see how the synthetic graphite supply chain will develop as EVs and battery production scale and research is given time to complete. I've seen that there are a few research groups/startups trying to convert CO2 into solid carbon which could in turn be turned into syn graphite. It would be cool if that became commercially viable someday.
Wonderful.
You missed one key connection in this video! Phillips 66 is currently Novonix's largest shareholder with 16%! This is the missing part of your jigsaw that highlights how huge this is for Novonix!
I'm aware 🤠 But, doing my best to remain neutral.
Just because there's a connection there doesn't mean Tesla will be using Novonix.
I felt it was enough to say that Tesla could use them rather than building a case around that, which would be a separate video.
would be great see see a seperate video about this, especially if Panasonic confirm Kansas 4680 production, in light of the offtake agreement between Panasonic and NVX, thanks for your insights :)@@thelimitingfactor
Higher cycle life is more important than marginal decrease in CO2 emissions for inputs. If the battery dies, then the whole car is dead. The longer it lasts, the longer the car can drive. Even an extra few months of driving can offset the CO2 from the synthetic anode I suspect.
🎯
7:30
I need to know.... what is the physical difference between natural and synthetic graphite?
I have a basic understanding of the technique.
Calculate the positions of the peaks in the X-ray diffraction. Then find a ratio between the two tallest peaks, and and you get a crystallography constant. This ratio should be the ratio of x distance to y distance along the crystal.
I seem to remember that being called a d spacing...
Is the difference because of amorphous carbon with the graphite?
If so, which has more?
Making Coal Tar sounds cool
Jordan, great video and analysis as usual!
Did you come across or give any consideration to the compatibility of natural / synthetic graphite with Tesla's patented process for adding lithium metal to the anode to cover lithium depletion related to first cycle capacity loss?
Adding lithium metal to anode graphite provides a way to introduce lithium that will be consumed forming SEI without the need to introduce that lithium by way of excess cathode material which is both heavy and expensive. The economy achieved by eliminating excess cathode (several percent of total cathode at least) might swamp both the economic and carbon footprint issues associated with natural vs synthetic graphite...
It would be compatible with both 🤠
Syntetic Graphite can be made from bio - charcoal. We do charcoal in Egypt.
A video on coal tar would be a bit too deep in the supply chain and future for my interests, but...
If you are branching out beyond batteries/Tesla/manufacturing I would love to see a video on the present state and future of green methane, with particular attention to potential use for seasonal energy storage and northern hemispheresouthern hemisphere energy shipping.
Thanks Jordan! The only missing piece for me is why does Tesla have a supply agreement with Syrah resources? Is this the next (current) generation of battery with a mix? Are they looking to further their green credentials? Their natural graphite is a lot better than chinese, its not too far from Texas, the mine uses 30% renewables etc etc - they would easily beat Novonix emissions wise.
Jordan it makes a difference to make needle coke from low sulfur oil versus high sulfur or high metals oil. I know it’s a detail but wonder if this was mentioned by any of the research you did. Great video btw.
Interesting point! Yeah, this wasn't a deep dive, but that's good to know
@@thelimitingfactorThe Hazer Process has NO sulphur issues.
@@gregbailey45 was not aware of the technology but looks like a good alternative to conventional coke processing. Being natural gas based should give some cost and quality advantage especially for graphite materials. However petroleum coke is essentially a waste material from refining so input material can vary significantly in cost. Source petroleum specification and markets for heavy oil versus light oil greatly affects availability and price of needle coke of certain specifications.
I would be curious if rock snot could be harvested, dried and used as a partial feedstock for pyrolysis oil that could be coked.
Soooooooooooooooooo Gooooooooooooood!!! amazing!
🙌
Thanks for that Jordan. 💪 Are you aware of the extent that graphite is recoverable from spent batteries? Does it make up a significant component of the black mass?
I'm a big dummy, but that kind of looks like what I would expect to see from Redwood materials combination of both natural and synthetic recycled graphite.
What about NMG from Canada. There is new investment from Panasonic and GM for Natural Graphite.
I would like a video on liquefying coal, because I'm a huge nerd
Yeah, it's total nerd stuff, lol. It fascinates me.
Amazing video as usual. This will serve Tesla well this decade, but the future is anode-less.
Thanks man!
As for the future being anode-less, I'm starting to doubt it.
Graphite is fundamentally more stable, which gives it ineherent cycle life benefits.
Anode-less is definitely the way to go for high energy density, but at the cost of durability.
We still use lead acid for a lot of applications because it meets the requirements for those use cases.
So, the future doesn't belong to any one technology. It belongs to a menu of chemistries for different use cases.
@@thelimitingfactorThat's a fair, and obviously informed, assessment. I don't fully disagree. My position is based on what QuantumScape has shown to, apparently, be possible. They seem to be able to get cycling upwards of 2000 with higher quality separators, and they are still working on improving the process. However, I totally agree that graphite will have a much longer market lifetime than anyone is expecting, despite all the recent cell development, including silicon anodes and sodium-ion. I guess supply will end up dictating what the next decades will look like, and any meaningful anode-less supply will certainly arrive late in the game. Novonix seems to be proving that graphite still has performance and/or cost reductions left in it.
Real futuristic. I dig the fins!
And what about Rivian planning to use 4695 cells for R2?
I already posted about this on X.
Using solar panels and lithium battery banks to assist in the production of raw materials fo make more batteries is pretty wild ! ! !
You can convert cellulose (and practically any organic garbage coming from agriculture) into graphite too. But it needs more processing compared to oil or coal, so more expensive.
most of the petroleum products that go into needle coke typically end up in bunker fuel. I would think that controlled processing rather than basically burning it up would be a better option.
Yes please supply chains are awesome!
What is the footprint of needle coke?
Any word on dry process cathode? What is the latest?
I give updates every quarter and when new cells are released on the market I do teardowns.
During your research, you missed that Tesla has signed purchase agreements with two graphite-producing companies. I will share the only one that appears close to delivering the product in 2024: Elon Musk’s company signed an agreement with Australia’s Syrah Resources, which operates one of the world’s largest graphite mines in southern Africa. They have completed phase 1 of their Louisianna Vladia plant, which will start production at the end of Q1 2024 (now and ramp thru year). Syrah has been producing massive amounts of graphite feedstock for China for the last decade, so their mining operations are significant and already producing significant feedstock, which they will start sending to the Louisianna Vladia plant. Lastly, most likely Tesla will be using a blend of synthentic and natural graphite, similar to SKon to get the best cycle life (SK ON supposedly uses a 50-50 mixture). Syrah is also sending feedstock to Westwater Resources, which may have production in 2025.
I didn't miss it, it wasn't in the scope of my video. Covered in other comments.
What are your projections on the recyclability and availability of graphite?
That's not something I can do in a few words 😁
I can weight in on this one. I work on electrocatalysis of CO2 and on solid state batteries. One of my active projects is to find more cost-effective ways to produce different carbon allotropes from CO2. This blew up in 2021 particularly, but I just hopped onto it.
I don't think we'll see this in industry for another 5 or 10 years, but when it does, not only will it facilitate more effective production of allotropes for all applications, batteries included, but the cost of production will greatly go down, as well as one more method of curbing CO2 levels.
That said, there is a major push for anodeless batteries now in the industry, especially amongst academics in the field. So in that regard, the question is, without the anode, how much will these future breakthroughs matter for the battery industry?
@@me0101001000 Is the carbon production process suitable for intermittent power?
I assume that the price of CO2 will go negative once governments get serious about green house gases, ie. a carbon tax. That is, companies will pay for responsible CO2 removal.
@@thelimitingfactor Wasn't really thinking you could. Rather, I thought it may be something you would consider/may have considered covering in detail in your vids at some point. I'm sure you don't have enough on your plate at any one time . . . ✌😎
Also means more tax and incentive benefits right?
Makes even more sense than a turboencabulator video 😂
LOL, almost as good as a plumbus
In the video, it mentions that you need to treat carbon or petroleum by products with 2500C heat. My understanding is that electric heating for industrial processes has not scaled for ultra high industrial processes. If this is the case, how are they going to use electricity to lower the carbon intensity of synthetic graphite? I know this is an area of research, but my understanding is that this is still a technical challenge for decarbonizing many high temperature industrial processes.
Good point! I'd have to look further into it.
Sure. Show us how synthetic graphite can be made cleanly. Decarbonization of heating is a fascinating subject.
Northvolt uses lignode. Is that an option for Tesla?
Lignode is hard carbon. Usually that's for sodium ion. Not sure what NV is doing with it.
I didn't know. Yes, they're doing sodium. @@thelimitingfactor
Why did the grid makeup cut off at 2022?
You'd have to give me a time stamp, I'm not sure what you're referring to
I like the idea of converting coal mine output to batteries. The CO2 expenditure is now "upgraded" to something that can be recycled down the line.
Graphite suply/demand going forward i understand will be a situation of undersuppy? Therefore I guess we will still exist in a world of mixed suppy types unless there is a major technological change.
An undersupply is forecast, yes
However, I haven't done a deep dive forecast on graphite.
It may or may not be the case depending on how the market evolves and which player you're talking about
@@thelimitingfactor The use might also depend on what is available in each market. In the EU with battery passport embedded CO2 might be more important that in the US or China.
Is there any research going on to use carbon capture to produce needle coke - that would be a double wammy
Novonix and Tesla match made with Jeff Dahn.
Teslas progress with 4680 has been very slow. Goals set at battery day 3.5 years ago are not yet achieved. In particular the dry process anode and silicon doped anode appears not yet implemented. Consequently factory footprint reduction objective and energy density improvements have not yet realized. Achieving those at scale with high yield and the 50% cost reductions are absolutely essential for achieving 20M Tesla EV sales annually. Would be great with an in-depth video on this and projections on when those improvements are likely to be achieved
A better way to don't waste energy in carbon fusion (reaching such high temperature) would be some sort of vapor deposition or microwave deposition, once the tech it's perfected. It would be like a nanoprint or microprint. I hope somebody can invent this.
why dont they use aerogel as a anode material?
There are thousands of materials that can be used, but each has a dozen different properties. Aerogel probably poops the bed on some of them.
@@thelimitingfactori was thinking silicon aerogels are mostly air, what if they were somehow infused with carbon instead. might be a good way to spread out the silicon with high surface area, but im just guessing haha
Tesla has signed a binding natural AAM off-take agreement for 25ktpa with Syrah Resources which isn't far from Austin. Their first delivery at a 8ktpa run rate starts in 4-5 months. They might be using synthetic atm because Tesla are having trouble sourcing natural graphite from China.
🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐
There is plenty of heavy oil in the world that can be used for synthetic graphite production.
Mass market will go LFP , so many reasons for that to happen.
Wait til Ross finds out about needle coke 😮😂
😁
21:48 probably doesn't account for transportation.
Good point!
It seems like it's a logic leap to assume that Tesla is going to use a near 100% synthetic strategy for their 4680's in the future based on examining a single cell now. You mentioned that it may vary geographically, but it also seems like it could vary over time in the same geographical location depending on supply and pricing shifts. Or is there some reason manufacturing reason that they'd need to stick with synthetic now that they've started with it?
I laid out what I knew about their anode and why they chose it, but didn't dictate what I thought they would or should do. The analysis showed synthetic graphite, so it wouldn't make sense to do a video mostly about nutural graphite.
That is, no leap of logic on my part. I work with the facts on the ground.
There are manufacturing reasons why they'd stick with synthetic after starting with synthetic. You're effectively changing the chemistry. Natural and synthetic will have different cohesion and adhesion, for example.
But, I'm also not going to say they wouldn't do that or couldn't. Switching to natural might mean time and engineering resources wasted, but yes, they could. That is, I don't have an axe to grind against natural graphite, it's just not supported by the information we have so far.
@@thelimitingfactor Thanks, makes sense. Good to know about the difference in cohesion and adhesion between natural and synthetic. That's the part I was missing.
Strong sign to the coöp with Tesla and Novonix with Jeff Dawn as advisor in the middle. 🤌🏻
The removal of information on YT years ago arround this subject was just to big to ignore.
… i’d like to know, hypothetically, what would happen if graphene were used instead of graphite.
Coal to coal tar? Yes Please :)
I’m impressed both by the quality of this presentation, and the insightful comments, along with Jordan’s responses to the comments. This is one of the rwadobs ik pay for TH-cam Premium
Thanks for the kind words and the support! ✊
Coal tarrrrrr
Facts 😂
🙏🏼
if synthetic graphite increases cells cycle life it implies to also increase safety
Unfortunately not
Could we get college credit for watching this vid? 🧐
🤣Wouldn't it be nice. Youu've earned it if you watched the whole video.
I guess the consumer will absorb the higher cost..and the higher carbon footprint will have to be addressed.. later..😅😅
For the time being it will continue to undiluted 😁. Some day I might ease up on the intensity, but not yet.
So we don’t really have “all the refining capacity we need”. That is mostly outsourced to Central America. Bad assumption there. Most of the rest seems pretty accurate
Based on the image I showed, yes we do have enough refining capacity.
Jordan, please don’t dilute the intellectual level. I can ease some Commenters’ dis)stress: I used to be neuroactively challenged. My revivifier gave me a new brain. 🧠 I got better!
We need to keep in mind that the carbon footprint of manufacturing will approach ZERO. And soon.
Why do you think that only fossil fuels can be used to produce synthetic graphite? Additionally, because of this constraint you then deem them competitive or inferior to naturally occurring graphite. Seems a bit silly.
That's not what I said, so I don't know what you're talking about.
Did you watch just the first 2 minutes? Watch the entire video.
23:30 not too interested in a video about coal liquefaction. The whole point of moving away from fossil fuels is to leave the buried carbon, buried.
Coal = Bad is ideological thinking, and this isn't a channel for environmental activists.
It's a channel for engineers and investors who are excited about a better future.
That is, it's about pragmatic solutions to make the world better rather than ideology.
If we can turn coal into anode in a more environmentally friendly and economic way, we should and we will.
The question is whether I should cover it.
Nobody cares about your feelings and carbon nightmares. Volcanos and geological processes would like to have a chat with you though.
@@thelimitingfactor My point was: I'd rather see you promote a solution coming from non-buried carbon sources. I too want an exciting future, one we can all enjoy.
Also my answer to your question is more clearly no. You're obviously free to do as you please. Also I'd rather not be labeled as an environmental activist, because that's a fallacious attack, on top of not being something I can identify with.
Coal liquefaction occurs when Frosty’s eyes melt… 🥶
natural graphite is also buried carbon ;)
I would really like to understand the liquified coal method for making needle coke.
16:37 putting natural gas as a clean electricity source is at best dubious :( (it's only half the CO2 emissions of coal, which is the worst - if natural gas comes from fracking, the environmental impact is even worse)
You must be trolling. I said this:
"the electrical grid in the U.S. and Europe are now primarily powered by natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy sources which produce far less CO2 emissions and pollutants than coal or gasoline."
That is, I didn't say it was clean. I said it produces less emissions than coal and gasoline.
Everything has an environmental impact. Even solar, wind, and batteries. It's all relative.
@@thelimitingfactor Cultists just can't help themselves though.
CO2 is *GOOD* for plants, trees, fruit, vegetables, and consequently it's also good for herbivorous animals, and if it's good for herbivorous than it's also good for carnivorous animals. So it's *GOOD* for the flora and the fauna. And if it's good for the flora and fauna, it's also good for the Earth and the Humans.
Than, why *EVERYBODY* claim that CO2 is the worst thing that exists in the Universe?
Let's say you're right and CO2 is nothing but candy floss and unicorns.
Why should we stop burning fossil fuels?
Because the other noxious chemicals vehicles emit result in an absolutely massive reduction in daily adjusted life years globally.
That's not to mention the noise and inefficiency.
So, I take your point, but it's idiotic.