Tesla's Next Gen Compact Vehicle // Stainless Steel vs Paint
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- Will Tesla's Next Gen Compact Vehicle use stainless steel or paint? Or will it use plastic or a new coating technique? Today I'll walk you through the options.
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
02:05 Cost to Paint the Vehicle
05:33 Material Cost for Stainless Steel
09:25 Manufacturing Costs for Stainless Steel
12:40 A Split Verdict
14:33 But What About Plastic?
16:49 Tom Zhou’s Comment
18:54 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
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Yes, it was completely random that I landed on $420/unit paint cost, lol
Hopefully it's a 4 door sedan with regular doors. Like a Corolla.
Why does aluminium have to be painted?
@thelimitingfactor
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Hey Jordan.
Let's have another try.....
I still think there are a fundamental misconceptions regarding the "compact car" (vehicle)
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1) "Compact" doesn't necessarily mean "small" in terms of passenger space.
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2) The general consensus seems to be (on and off) that the Compact and the Taxi are based on the same *platform* ?
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Why not take that further and say the same *vehicle* ?
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That makes perfect sense for both ease of production and economy of scale.... Leading to "Cheap" (profitable)
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3) Use case:
There's a popular opinion that the TAXI would be a 2 seat vehicle.....
But, consider the use case.
At least where I live (London) we have *regulations* for Black Cabs which stipulate the requirements of easy access for the "less able" in society (who arguably require the service more that the "able"?)
This includes provision for *easy access* of service animals and Wheelchairs.
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A 2 seater, as presented *WOULD NOT* succeed.
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HOWEVER.
Applying what I hope may be seen as "logic" and revisiting my first point....
A "COMPACT" (SHORT) vehicle, with wide, *flat* access, (automated sliding door? 1 side?) and ample seating in the same footprint as a 2 seater?
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That's perfect for a Taxi.
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Imagine what some consider the best of the bunch (so far) the London Black Cab.
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A "Box" behind the driver, with wide doors, and good access.
Now, remove the front end, then, the driver.
Replace the area vacated by the driver with luggage space.
Add 4 wheel steering.
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THAT is an efficient, general purpose (AND legal!)TAXI.
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My conclusion?
The "box like" car shown was (is) the basis for:
The Taxi and other variants INCLUDING the cheap "compact" car which, incidentally (?) Sandy Munro once described as "a brick for the kids to drive"...... I believe he's thinking the same as me.
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Structure? *Not* "Cybertruck" based.
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Materials?
Jordan, I'm sure you noticed the comment by Tom at the end of the Munro CT battery video regarding the fibre based structural components?
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I wonder if Tesla has been experimenting with a rapid production system for other components?
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They didn't look like Carbon to me ...
How about a woven natural fibre with a resin, or other binder?
(🤔 Maybe a crop which mid west farmers might provide?? Untapped customers?)
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Maybe a whole battery box from that material?
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A metal casting bolted to the front?
Metal crash cans on the front of that?
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Various rear end frames and panels in metal, or the same material?
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Panels designed to hang "over" structural beams, similar to those in the pack, fixed on the inside face with quick release trim fasteners?
Not visible on the outside, but easy removal for repair, just shred the old panel as raw material for other components?
If recyclers had a shredder on site, they'd be sending a tub of raw material back on the same truck taking battery packs for recycling!
The modern equivalent to "crushing" a car?
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There may not be paint.....
Self coloured?
Possibly a wrap?
🤔Was the "wrap your Cybertruck" service a "toe in the water" for that idea?
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Imagine a line of Optimus workers with a semi automated wrap line, the component on a conveyor, a roll of wrap extends over, then lowers onto the panel (vacuum formed?)
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Optimus trims the panel.
(Wait for the "Robot with knife" FUD!)
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THIS is how they get to the "20 million" figure.
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Nearly forgot.
"The car on the right"
Jordan.
Same presentation.
Slide... 58(?) "Powertrain"
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Copy and enlarge "the car under the sheet".
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Tesla website.
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Menu
Vehicles
Roadster.
5th picture down (removable roof"?).
Look at the lines.
Tell me it's not the same car.
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Question.
What might be a good test for a new production process?
You might want to start with a "hands on" supervisory approach? Workers hand fitting and "fettling" to refine the system?
Maybe making a low volume product with enough profit margin to allow that extra work?
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What if they were building 2 lines and the project which has been mothballed is the "slow build, test vehicle" the Roadster, not the Compact/ Taxi?
Maybe "Unboxed" is working better than anticipated?
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Food for thought?
An unpainted corrosion resistant aluminium alloy makes more sense than steel imo., from a cost perspective at least.
@@SkepticalCaveman Most alloys pick up a pretty drab patina, and certain atmospheres attack aluminum aggressively. I.e. salt fog with smog mixed in.
My 1997 Saturn has 160,000 miles on it and has no dings, no dents.
Shame GM didn’t simply make Saturn an Electric brand- complete with the no haggle process.
Costs $420 to paint the compact? That checks out.
😂🎯
@@thelimitingfactor IIRC the way accountants work, 1. They ignore the factory-capital cost/(probably)water-consumption/water-treatment etc which get lumped into overheads & distributed across all elements of vehicle cost (paint has a big foot print). 2. Defects and remedial are also likely to be treated the same way, so paint damage further down the line say during installation of a door will get assigned to door costs or over heads. 3. the time the vehicle is in the build process gets picked up in over heads. Me, I’d quite believe paint costs 25% of a vehicle, but others, like Munro & Associates could tell you for sure
Plastic can be high quality, it's just usually isn't. A good example is LEGO. There are countless advantages of plastic, and few disadvantages.
And I don't think people care too much about the prestige of a robotaxi. As long as it looks solid and comfortable, it's fine. And for those who want to show off, there will be legacy Teslas.
I agree with you, but the plastic problem isn't just about initial quality. I used to sell the machines used to make lego molds, and the key is extremely tight tolerances for the mold and injection molding process. The problem with plastic, at least according to Bob Lutz, is that no matter how precisely you make the part, it has a lot of thermal expansion. I just don't think it's an issue for a taxi.
Plastic could be molded with colors, no paint required
If Tesla figures out a great plastic formula, and it gets the price and weight down, I'd totally buy the car. In a taxi I also wouldn't car of course.
For high volume it’s most likely gen3 will have a large casting and composite body panels. The composites of today is not the plastics of 20 years ago. Composites/plastics can be manufactured in huge volumes, easy and cheap to replace when damaged, and easy to customize for fleets (eg hertz robotaxi).
Corvette anyone?
@@dont_hit_trees Fiberglass ...
The Smart car used them, and they had numerous advantages. Weight and cost, and the ability to easily remove them and replace them changing the colour of the car. They were also easy for companies to put branding on and it was easy to replace that later. I've no idea what kind of plastic or composite they were made from but the basic principal works fine.
Rolled and anodised aluminium is a possibility. Many buses have aluminium panels. Anodising is a quick 3 step process
For the cheapest model, price seems to be the driver for consumers. Plastic didn't stop customers from buying Saturns. And I understand that Tesla has some top tier material people, who might be able to solve the problems for plastic panels, just as the stainless steel issues were worked for the CT. Of course, if it's an entirely new material for panels, that's potentially exciting. (A risk, but Tesla seems to take risks, and there could be a cost, or production speed or space, upside.)
When Sandy Monroe suggested to Elon he mix Aluminum and Carbon Fibre Elon was dead against it. Elon trained as a materials scientist at University.
Corvette has been fiberglass for 70 years
@@jamesengland7461 And fiberglass is dramatically harder to work with than injection molded plastics.
oh... I was actually thinking - other. Like plastic shell on the outside. Something that is easy to clean. Does not dent or is at least super easy to fix.
A notable advantage for plastics is their low thermal conductivity that can significantly offset cabin environment energy use in an EV. This thermal break also helps to slow battery degradation rates while the car sits in the sun. This low thermal conductivity does come at the cost of dimensional stability (relative to metals) however, and larger panel gaps can greatly affect attached airflow. Gains in thermal performance could be more than offset by a decrease in aerodynamic performance at higher speeds. But lower speed taxis designed for city use, I suspect plastics have more pros than cons here, as total cost of ownership (i.e. outdoor storage) is very heavily weighted in fleet vehicles. Worth noting, the angular look of SS would be a liberty in a pedestrian heavy enforcement. A lawsuit there would likely increase the cost of ownership outside the scope of consideration.
Great comment, great ideas!
Believe that Ford once had a Hemp based body very strong. Rust free. Light.
Ford's hemp vehicle was also designed to run on hemp alcohol.
That checks out with a cost to paint of 420.
@@TheUToobBoob UBoob University educated, I know, you know hemp is not used as the " big bad Drug" It's fantastic materials ability being in direct competition with other popular building, materials at the time of weeds first political ban was why weed was also banned .
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybean_car
When Penske/Mercedes finally brought the Smart ForTwo to the US, I bought one. I drove the wheels off that thing in and around southern California. Of course, I hopped it up with wider wheels, a better (and noisier) exhaust and lowered the car an inch. In dark blue and black it looked like dart Vader's helmet.
Why do I mention this. Because I found it wonderful to pop off any plastic panel easily for access beneath. I don't think there was a panel that I didn't remove several times. I never broke a fastener and the panels always returned to their correct positions with minimal panel gaps. Smart owners would go to gatherings where people would swap panels. Don't like Yellow? I do, How about we exchange panels/colors. I saw some cars leave such gatherings with every panel a different color. Talk about a coat of many colors!
The SmartCar concept was excellent. The car shape was too unconventional to many Americans, but the real flaw was the computer controlled mechanical clutch and gear shift. It was efficient, but it was slow. The gears changes were slow and the gap between first and second was a chasm. But once rolling it was a delight in traffic.
If Tesla were to follow the SmartCar body material with a more conventional style, and hopefully a higher rear roofline with a full hatchback, I am convinced it would be a winner. Stainless? No thanks. Painted? If it's less expensive, but I seriously doubt it. You could buy a full set of different color plastic body panels for the SmartCar when new for $700, admittedly a decade ago. When I sold the Smart after ten years of heavy use, and despite it having spent many days parked in 'door ding heaven' multi story car parks, the bodywork still looked like new. For me, plastic panels are the solution Tesla needs.
Under-rated comment. Smart-style city cars are the way.
(Who needs rear wheel steering to go get a bag of oranges?)
@@nickfosterxx you don't but I would happily drive mine all over the UK, up to about three hundred miles, with no comfort issues or safety concerns. Admittedly, I'm not an abject coward as a lot of people who scream that small car are unsafe clearly are but they were great cars for the time.
Yes, the Smarts automatic gearbox wasn't as fast as it could have been, although it did apparently improve over the one I had. It was really fast compared to every single car I ever raced off the lights though due to the weight. And boy did people get annoyed that I could overtake them on the motorway because they weren't actually doing 70 anyway. Lots of bruised egos. The panels were great and while I never modded mine, knowing I could was a bonus. If only they'd made their electric one a ground up vehicle and done it properly it would have been as good as the Chinese versions with a much larger range. Sadly that's not the Mercedes mindset, they're much more comfortable designing out of date technology and the original Smart guy wasn't around to push them any more so they stabbed it in the back like the traitors to humanity and engineering they are at heart.
If Tesla put more than two seats in their budget car I will not be surprised but I'll know they were never serious about the idea at that point.
Great video. Just a small nitpick. I feel it would be more natural to refer to it as 'three oh ex' rather than 'thirty ex' steel. I'm pretty sure the '30X' steel means a steel similar to a: _SAE steel 300 Series-austenitic chromium-nickel alloys_ , like 301, 303, 304L, etc., but because Tesla, they make it more exey by putting some X in it. 'Thirty X' makes it sound to me like they cold roll it thirty times, like some mystical katana steel, and not just a non-standardized 300-series similar alloy.
If the entire future is shiny and metallic like in 1950s comics I'm all here for it
Chromed would be cool. Then I will buy one and chrome my teeth to match 🙂
Real futuristic. Dig the fins!
🤗THANKS JORDAN,AND ALL YOUR SUPPORTERS,FOR SHARING THIS 🤗💚💚💚
I like your speculation that the robotaxis might be unpainted stainless steel. As for the consumer compact car, I find it hard to believe any car company - even Tesla - would make a mass market car intended to sell in the millions (or tens of millions) that forced a “One Color Only” option on customers. Imagine the frustration and confusion playing out every day at parking lots the world over. That alone convinces me the compact car will be painted.
Wraps
Good summary, good numbers. Thanks. => The no paint aluminium option would have been interesting to analyse.
Good point!
A lot of motorcycles use anodized aluminum.
That is intriguing.
Good colour ranges possible but I’m unsure about resistance to coastal conditions. Having said that, all our bus panels in Africa are from rolled aluminium
Afik aluminum is a lot harder to stamp into complex shapes. But a hot-stamping process like Tesla is already using on CyberTruck might change the numbers? An alloy which age hardens at room temperature (like 2024) stamped and quenched by cold dies would be interesting.
I can think of somehow anodizing the panels instead of painting. You can also add small amount of amorphous carbon fiber to plastic to drastically reduce thermal/humidity expansion and to be marketed as "Carbon Fiber" panels for broader customer appeal.
You can't compare to the Saturn, as there have been major advances in polymers since then, most models of cars use an extensive amount of plastic on their body these days without major issues.
They always have in bumpers, etc. But not the body.
@@thelimitingfactor Bumpers, the entire fascia, kicker plates and wheel arches on off-road type vehciles. All of the protruding bits like mirrors and spoilers, the entire exterior of those fancy light clusters. Take a good look at a modern vehicle. At least 30% if not 40% of that surface area is plastic.
I think the 25k car and the robotaxi are actually the same vehicle.
It will be designed so that it can be shipped with or without a wheel.
As for the panels, taxis, rentals and non owner use in general usually results in higher maintenance cost because people don't care if they don't own it. Having a stainless steel body could save in that regard.
Great work Jordan. IMO, The future belongs to ones that can make good looking diamond like coatings simply and inexpensively. Stainless does not need to be highly work hardened super alloys. Any one of a number of appliance type stainless alloys could be near directly replaced in a conventional stamped and formed body part. Will be interesting to see how much more they use lighter aluminum and or magnesium alloys as well as possible ceramic coatings to maximize finish durability's. I expect a bit more of the sandwich approach they applied in the rear of CT with castings and molded plastic substructures with metal or FRP exteriors. New bench marks in specific strengths and stiffness .
Cybertruck owners have pretty much agreed between themselves that you need to wrap them, else end up with an eyesore. You can't expect customers to be very happy about a post sale cost to cover that.
My Smart Car has a Steel frame, but plastic panels for the finish. Maybe this is the route they're going to take.
Horses for courses
Maybe there's a way of stamping the thinner stainless steel..
As far as Saturn's plastic panel issues go... we have to remember that that was 20 years ago and plastics technology has moved forward quite alot. Like the problems with aluminum casting, I do not think this is at all the barrier that it was at one point.
As far as people not liking the idea of a "plastic car"..... public perception is all rather silly and the bulk of the front and rear end... as well as kicker plates around the exterior of many vehicles... and all protruding features like mirrors and spoilers... at least 30-40% of the surface area of most vehicles have been plastic for decades. And remember that despite the reputation, Saturns were never *all plastic* they just had plastic bumpers and fascias (like every other car) front quarter panels, and main door panels. The rear quarter panels, trunk lid, roof and hood were steel. In other words, just slightly more plastic than a Subaru Outback... which instead of being viewed as "cheap" is viewed as "rugged". Because public perception is entirely silly and moldable by PR.
As a customer, the advantages to plastic are incredible... it never rusts, the paint doesnt usually fail, it survives low speed collisions and can be "popped out" with a heat gun, and if it needs to be replaced its incredibly cheap to do so. It is very light weight (meaning total vehicle weight is reduced, thus extending range) and when painted it looks no different than steel (which is why we "forgot" how much of modern vehicles is plastic to begin with). It basically eliminates worries about parking lot dings and injury in low speed collosions. From a manufacturing perspective, especially for a robotaxi... the color could be shot in with the panels (black is already a common base color for plastic car parts and is likely one of the cheapest dyes). It is also possible to shoot carbon fibre or glass fill in for components that need higher structural strength like hoods and trunk lids.
To me, a production line merging cast alumnimum frame components with injection molded plastic panels sounds like it could be the ultimate in high production. Whatever time is lost in molding plastic vs stamping is probably made up for fast assembly... plastic panels can easily be molded with build-in assembly aids, tabs, and snaps... no welding required.
Pontiac Fiero was introduced 41 years ago.
Your ideas sound good and seem practicable. The RT doesn't have to look good, it just has to work well.
The RT could be used to check public opinion and to optimise appearance, materials and production processes for the compact.
Thank you for your insights.
Great presentation, Jordan. Hopefully we will know more on 8/8.
In Joe T's drone videos of GT he showed lot of paint equipment that have now been installed. Based on that I going to guess that your hypothesis of Robotaxis being painted is correct.
I owned an all plastic body 1996 Pontiac Trans Sport mini-van. The body on that vehicle was beautiful. I expect that with another 30 years of development since then, that Tesla could do even better. Whatever Tesla decides to do, throughput will be a big consideration. Plastic body pannels come out of the mold ready to install.
Good video. And BTW in line with my guess that paint would be used.
If I could place a wager on the future manufacturing processes of the Model 2 / Robotaxi I'd put a stack on the following:
Gigacasting approach to make all structural components: Door rings, door and rear hatch structure, front and rear chassis & roof cross members with a coated finish where required . This eliminates all stamping and welding processes and gets close to the "Whole Body Casting" approach without the complex mould geometry. Thats 11 cast components total by my reckoning.
Exterior panels: Mould in colour body panels consisting of front & rear bumpers, door, hatch, bonnet (hood) and rear quarter skins with a glass/polycarbonate roof. Smart have been using thermoplastic body panels for a long time with no descernable issue with panel gaps. I've seen at some trade shows that colours other than solids (e.g. white, red, black) are available for injection moulding, this includes metallics that are indistinguishable from a painted surface.
Said thermoplastics can have a high % of recycled feedstocks as other manufacturers have show e.g. Volvo using recycled window frames and Renault using recycled plastics in interior fabrics.
Hard-wearing rapidly replaceable bodypanels and non-rusting structural components would be a good fit for Robotaxi fleets with expected lifetimes spanning decades. For the same reasons the Model 2 will appeal to buyers who place reliability and dependability high on their list of requirements.
The way you get colored metal without paint is by coloring the metal itself chemically. While anodizing doesn't work well on stainless, there are other methods that produce similar results.
This is excellent, thank you.
I think I could automate vinyl wrapping parts on a rack. I’d use rows of Optimus shoulders with long arms stacked on a post to apply the vinyl cut and trim as it moves through the station.
The plans for Giga Berlin new building has a huge amount of space allocated to plastics compared to the existing plant. My guess is Giga Berlin will have plastic rather than metal outer skin.
Tesla could invent some new material that is more like plastic but not actually plastic as we know it
Thank you!
Material rigidity is the cube of the thickness so 0.25mm is 64 times less rigid than 1mm. I doubt that 0.25mm sheet metal would be a reality on vehicule body. Also about the value of stainless, I think customers will not only see the initial cost it add to the vehicule but also the value of durability for region where corrosion is affecting vehicule alot.
Yeah, I was trying to give the devil his due
I am late to the party so I am sure someone already suggested a carbon fiber tub like in racing with plastic for the compact and stainless steel for the taxi. They would be the safest road cars and temp should not be an issue with the plastic at least . Enjoyed the episode, thanks Brett
A robotaxi doesn't require aesthetic appeal. Dont be surprised if they just go for a purely utilitarian coating.
My revivifier says, “when a taxi rolls up, I’ve NEVER checked panel gaps!”
super well done! proud patreon here !!!
Glad to hear it! 🙏🏼
As opposed to an customer-owned vehicle Tesla only needs a couple hundred miles of range for a robotaxi which they could do with sodium batteries so the whole issue of body panels may be 2nd tier.
Paint or steel are just 2 options. We already have tech to make the body light up as an option and photo / video images as another option. These can be used for advertising. They also open wide possibilities for custom paint jobs without the paint and switch from one colour or image to another instantly.
I am wondering if they are making their own SMC CF for the cybertruck bed parts or is that a subcontractor? The old Saturn's were the beginning of that with fiberglass reinforced body plastic panels. SMC can make very nice body panels from fiberglass these days that are durable and easy to repair minor dings. You can infuse UV protection and color. Fit and finish on these parts is so good they can snap together if desired. Waste from trim can be reused for other moldings. That can include fittings like nuts molded into the part, wire pathways or textured adhesive areas that give a first time, every time consistent fit. Making construction simpler and fits right in with the unboxed method. There are also vinyl and PPF wraps.
Hey Jordan, as someone who works in mfg engineering, this is a great analysis! A few additional thoughts:
1. Personally think if the low cost vehicle were to use SST exterior, I would think they would use a less hard alloy, such a 304, or a lower cost alloy like 400 series. Preferably one that could be efficiently stamped and shaped instead of the complicated Cyber truck processes.
2. (Out there idea) For color it would be interesting if they used a heat treating process to add a color hue or tint to SST while adding strength.
3. In my work we like to perform a Unit Operations analysis (first principles) when evaluating and developing new processes. Break process down into individual unit operations and assess for critical to quality, ease of assembly, risks, mitigations, time, cost, etc. Have you considered running a hypothetical analysis for a traditional painting process and look for possible optimizations?
Hope you're doing well! - Nick
Good points and thanks for the feedback!
is it possible they do some sort of factory wrap over stainless at some point in the manufacturing process?
I think direction(priority) has shifted to RT and away from the consumer M2 vehicle. Whatever exterior they choose it will be both the cheapest and longest lasting option. Nobody will care what the RT looks like. They will ultimately care how cheap it is to rent per mile.
Can't wait for 8/8.
Another option would be to apply a simple anti corrosion layer and then automate vinyl wrapping. This might be easier with the unboxed process where panels can be wrapped prior to final assembly.
Plastic is the perfect fit. Please check the Citroen Ami. Is very interesting approach of using same molds for front and back
Great video. Curious how this would have panned out if you included Aluminium.
It's a good point! There were at least 3 other options I could have covered. I covered the one that have been raised the most.
Plastic has a lot more advantages than those you listed. First compact could use large injection molding machines to reduce the part count by combining fender and bumper panels into a single part. That reduces panel gap requirements and avoids tolerance stackup just as gigacastings do. This is a big consideration when scaling production to very high levels that the compact is intended to meet. The body would consist of 2 main gigacastings front and rear, a structural battery pack, glass roof, and single layer ultra strength steel stampings for side panels. The front giga casting could include the A pillar that the windshield attaches to and the rear gigacasting could include the C pillar that the lift gate attaches to. The Jeep Cherokee used a fiberglass rear lift gate so and injection molded plastic lift gate wouldn’t be out of the question. Expansion and contraction of dissimilar materials wouldn’t be an issue if all panels were injection molded plastic. Lastly, panels could be molded from UV stable colored plastics for markets where cost is more of a consideration than surface finish or finish longevity and panels could be painted in markets where finish and longevity were higher considerations. Using all molded structures to build a compact quickly would require minimal fitting and adjustments. That reduces assembly time and operator skill on the line. Which makes teslabot far more likely on the production line, as well as local assembly by unskilled workers in 3rd world markets.
It also has more disadvantages than I listed.
@@thelimitingfactor But if the body and panels were all 'plastic' (e.g. carbon fiber?) then the thermal expansion difference between frame and body panel issue would be minimized.
@@logoschristianacademy6044 That will likely be the case with Roadster but not in a segment where every penny is scrutinized.
@@thelimitingfactor Saturn midigated the expansion issues by using rubber plugs to affix the plastic panels to a steel monocoque. Those issues however have been minimized since then by improving both plastic chemistries as well as molding techniques. There isn’t much alignment shift in the current mating of plastic bumpers to metal fenders, for example. What I’m proposing is just the elimination of the metal fender panels in favor of plastic bumpers that extend around the sides to cover the areas currently covered by the metal fenders. That eliminates joints between bumpers and fenders entirely. The point is to eliminate tolerance stackup and final fitment processes by using large structural castings along with large injection molded plastic castings and a minimal amount of high strength steel stampings and other molded parts like laminated glass. This minimizes the part count while simultaneously minimizing assembly cost and complexity. Remember Elons montra, “The best part is no part, the best process is no process!” Very large front and rear impact absorbing close out panels eliminates stamped metal fenders along with all the handling, coating and installation processes. That’s right down Elons alley. Not to mention opening up the small car platform for use by other manufacturers by simply molding a different set of plastic outer skins to reflect different design languages of other brands. It’s interesting that GM is bringing back the Bolt around 2025 when they never were able to be profitable in that segment. It’s also interesting that VW has delayed production of their ID Golf until 2025 and that Ford has announced a skunkworks team secretly working on a new compact for 2025… When is Teslas new unboxed compact car coming out? 2025? I say that all these upcoming small EVs will be built on the same platform, because only Tesla has figured out how to do it profitably with its unboxed method.
I’m going with powder coating because the unboxed process allows for smaller parts.
The smaller parts require a smaller oven or perhaps a longer oven that the parts go through without stopping or requiring any human intervention.
I don’t think powder coating requires primer either.
Powder coating has a fast cure time and the application of it requires less accuracy due to the electrostatic charge that helps the coating stick to the part as well.
I built a utility trailer years ago and it was cheaper to powder coat by a huge margin compared to getting it painted.
Powder coating guns are less prone to clogging.
Just my two cents.
Thanks!
Keep in mind that blanking die stainless also needs a preheat furnace both for cutting and forming as opposed to cold stamping. The added cost makes laser cutting that much more attractive. When you factor running changes to the design and refreshes. Getting stuck with a blanking die that forces you into a long service cycle and the length of time for the die fabrication. Teslas use of heated stainless formed in am aluminum forming die with phosphor bronze coating makes the process infinitely more flexable and faster per improvements and refresh.
I'm wondering how respectful users would be of the paint in a robot taxi. Also, how much it would affect their view of the service if it showed abuse.
Will be an app for sure , where you will control who can use your robotaxi and when, ,if the customer has bad feedback you can refuse him to use your taxi
@@gaborkevlar2821 I see that kind of micromanagement work for the kind of amount and duration of Airbnb stays but not for taxies. Plus, how to be sure who exactly is responsible for trashing the outside paint? Could be a rock thrown sideways by a passing vehicle, a cart in a shopping center, another door opening, a passerby and so on.
My main point was: considering electric vehicles at first required to look more at the TCO than the buying price only. For Robotaxi, you could consider durability being more important than the cost of manufacturing, ultimately to have also a lower TCO.
What about making composite materials like Aptera? It's lightweight and they can mold bigger pieces
They can also wrap the pieces
Aptera is ludicrously expensive, solving a non-existing problem. it's a gadget.
Great idea, though.
I’m wondering if the paint replacement will be a form of in mold graphics used in injection molding except it’s a film wrap applied to the parts in an automated process either in the forming or wraps applied to the parts before assembly. 3D inkjet printing on compound surfaces is also something you can get in china, that’s a feasible option as well
I wonder if plastic panels could be produced in a similar fashion to pop bottles? That is, a blank is inserted into a cavity, then inflated into shape.
Of course, this would result in an empty shell, so I propose filling it with an expanding foam or hardening plastic of suitable strength.
Panels made like this could offer a vast array of customization based on both filler and gluing several panels together to form more complex parts, increase insulation and noise isolation, or even incorporate solar under an outer layer.
Laser blanking for the Cybertruck is for the thick sheeting, if you use .25mm sheeting you wouldn't necessarily need to use it for this thinner sheeting.
You missed a few other ideas they could use. They could use sheet moulded compound like the Cybertruck bed.
Instead of painting they could powder coat the panels like they are doing on the body side rings of the Cybertruck. Also we now know they can press fancy shapes in the ss unlike they previously mentioned as shown by the door inners on the Cybertruck
Fair point!
You seem to be discussing robotaxi and compact vehicle as if they are different but my impression is they will essentially be the same vehicle, possibly minus a steering wheel for the robotaxi.
Would vacuum or shrink wrap panels with plastic film be an option. Wrapping is all the rage these days. Maybe galvanised metal for corrosion?
The Saturn body panels were painted. They also tended to shatter in a collision.
Flat surfaces plus some base color plus wrap. Wourld it cost more?
Tesla might have a wild-card up there sleeve. For instance, pebble texture roto-molded polyethylene is tough as nails, easy to fix, and wouldn't fade. But has a "cheap look" because of all the cheap products that use it.
Afik, the CTE mismatch of plastic on a metal frame could also be solved with careful design and modeling of the body panel mounts. I.e. let them float a bit as they expand and contract. (adds cost and reduces durability though)
Paint cost does not scale linearly with cost. So taking the same percentage across the different segments (size, luxury) could lead to inflated estimates. Even the same vehicle can cost thousands different due to factory offered trims and options.
I don't believe Saturn abandoned plastic. They abandoned building cars altogether, and wound up just badge-engineering European GM cars.
Other GM divisions worked to sabotage Saturn, Olds, Pontiac. And Bob kLutz was Chief Saboteur. Do not believe the world’s oldest office boy.
I owned a 2008 Saturn Aura. It had painted metal panels, no plastic ones.
Composite colored upper body & clear coat!
I wonder if they could automate a vinyl wrap.
A roll on Amazon cost about $330. So I'm guessing they could get it on for about $350, especially if it was cyber flat.
Could thin stainless steel be stamp cut?
My old car's front fenders were plastic and I just get aware of it years later after a small accident.. fixed easily and was cheap to replace.. panel gaps doesn't have to be designed like a metal door, plastic has much more forming flexibility, so its not a real problem...
Tesla's initial focus is going to be producing these for their own purposes. I would expect they would want to do vinyl wraps so that they could put taxi markings all over them. They could also get advertising revenues by selling ad space on the side of the robo taxis.
Nailed it.
- Repairability
- Ubiquity of cheap steel, esp outside 'developed' nations
- Likely cheap new process which largely ignores 'owner pride'
Also:
- This is a world vehicle. Most nations follow the UNECE regulations for eg safety of vulnerable road users. Except the US, copied by Canada. As much as extra-thin stainless steel may appeal on so many grounds, the Compact will need to be acceptable outside the US. Will 'bounce' be as good as 'crumple'? I don't know.
Personally, I think weight will be an even higher priority due to low speeds, and very short journeys (60% are under 6 miles in the US, 95% under 31, and even shorter in other countries) combined with 'globalised' standards, will switch design considerations accordingly.
I was thinking that the weight of the material used could also be significant. Thin stainless steel would be lighter than mild steel and would also eliminate anti corrosion processes which also add weight along with paint. Plastic could be the lightest if extra stiffening material is not needed. I'm sure that more modern materials are better but my experience with painted plastic auto parts has been less than stellar in the long term but for a budget vehicle with a shorter expected lifetime it could be okay.
Automated shrink wrapped vinyl wraps into body panels during production might be cool
In the past would have said, stainless steel is double the price than steel. Now I checked parts out of stainless steel. The price (Stainless Steel, Laser cutting and forming) went up from 540 to 810€. Europe can be more difficult because of Russia boycott.
Not being a specialist, thin steel on the carossery was maybe min 0.7mm. For Stainless Steel I can't imagine that it's possible to make it thinner than 0.5mm. What could be tried is a surface thats not flat e.g. like the Junkers Ju52 plane. But for aerodynamics it could become more difficult.
Plastic on the surface could look too cheap. But I think the Mercedes Smart had/has a plastic surface.
Thanks for the insights!
@@thelimitingfactor There is the e.Go manufactured in Aachen but not very successful. The Smart seems plastic but with good painting. The Saturn, yes. And the BMW i3. Carbon as the Rimac.
Aluminum would need a protection at the outside (e.g. the large models or the Audi A2 (2000..2005)). It could be a sandwich of Aluminum sheetmetal and a hot temperature glued plastic foil.
Maybe we come to a foil that can produce electricity through sunlight if they really challenge their developers to make something extraordinary new. Just strange ideas.
I remember seeing a patent for bent glass… I wonder if glass could make a surprising mix of the body
Makes for a “sharp” looking car❤
Unless all the paint is mixed together at once for each run, they are going to run into paint matching issues when painting parts separately. Matching paint is the single reason repair shops overspray and blend onto undamaged areas when fixing cars today. Without doing that, the minor replaced/repaired body panel would become obvious due to inconsistency from one batch of paint to another.
I wonder if they've gone with some kind of factory applied membrane - a wrap. With a simple form with mostly flat panels, this could be automated.
Doesn't cars use plastic in the bumpers for decades now? And they are fixed on front and back end with very tight or even no panel gaps... But only a few parts can be plastic since there's a safety trade off if used in all the panels. Bumpers (obviously) and wheel arch panels are the very few that can be plastic and several car manufacturers have done it. Renault have done that with it's Clio compact since the early 2000s. The rest like the "bonnet" doors and trunk have to be steel.
Great video Jordan.
Thanks man!
Also should take aerodynamics into account which means less range or bigger battery.
Most city journeys are short. Or very short. And slow. Weight is more important than aero.
Is power coating an option? What about lambo doors to accommodate folding back seats that double as trunk space?
So many options! I'll be interested to see what they come up with.
how cool would it be if the could color the panels with precision heat annealing straight off the roll..... then you get a wide range of color but only have to clear coat it.
I've seen it done with a fiber laser on a small scale.
How about aluminum alloy body? It could be left bare, anodized or painted but be much more corrosion resistant than carbon steels.
Significant mass savings possible.
OH....was mentioned at the end.
Hi Jordan, can you comment? Is TSLA looking at using industrial hemp for some of their plastics?
No clue, if there's nothing public, then I don't know about it.
There's significantly less waste stainless than in a typical stamped body. Stainless bodies are bent, amd nested with super high material utilization, typical stamped bodys are 40-60% waste
Do you have any estimate of the cost of a Model 3 that would be 48V, all by wire operation, and unboxed manufacturing? Could this reduce the current price to
It would cut the cost by 15% or so
If TSLA developed their own plastics formula(s), what is the potential that some kind of nano engineering will be happening there? Also, if they use plastics for exterior, perhaps will they produce colored plastic panels, no paint shop?
I think weight should also be a driving factor. Is stainless steel heavier?
What about carbon fiber with electronic components imbedded into them?
One minute into the video and i'm going to blur it out some wild speculation. Chevy pioneered a rather unpopular practice of plastic dipping aluminum.It was found to be structurally sound enough in their opinion and light enough.They tested it on a small truck.People were highly incensed. The few parts they used looked ugly and people assumed.They weren't adequate to do the job.They did it with things like the rule bar.
What about wrapped stamped steel panels with only anti-corrosion treatment and no paint? Since that coating isn't aesthetic, and it's a single layer (presumably), wouldn't that dramatically reduce the factory complexity, cost, and retain the (final) aesthetics and provide almost unlimited consumer choice? It would also align with Tom's comment about paint being expensive. Wasn't the unboxed presentation before Tesla had much experience with wraps? Maybe now that they've done it more, they're realizing it could replace paint. It would also be potentially the most environmental choice since both the plastic and panels would be recyclable.
(It might also reduce repair costs because I guess that wrapping a single door panel is cheaper than repainting.)
So many options! that's another good one.
What about the inside face of the panel? That can be subject to MORE corrosion in many cases. Would you wrap both sides?
@@rogerstarkey5390 wrapping would not be enough for corrosion protection, there would still need to be some coating, I think
I’m sure this has been suggested already, but the robotaxi volume can be lower because Tesla would not need a lot of taxis to service an area. This might support the possibility of it being made from stainless steel
Isn’t the dependency on oil for plastic not a considerable factor?
It will be in the long term for sure
What about powder coating?
what if cars jut get wrapped up like aftermarket but in house in factory? i mean doing that to the parts not mounted on would be easy ./././ it sound interesting any thougths?
i always thought they'd solve carbon molding for low cost high volume, but still no news about that :(
What about the difference between plastic and stainless and sheet metal regarding crash testing?
There's ways to make each work
Honestly sometimes steel is just the best option haha. I’m hoping for bigger castings
A full paint job is easily $12k at a personal body shop. It was $5k before 2015.
I don't think you can look at GM's failures and think that is the final word on plastic panels; remember GM had the EV1.
Yup, that's why I worded it carefully
Regarding the use of plastics, those that would be recyclable would have to be thermoplastics, but they do not provide the same level of structural rigidity as thermosets, which are non recyclable due to intermolecular crosslinking. Also, the materials would have to be highly UV resistant/oxygen resistant which is hard to achieve for decade long utilisation. Though very attractive from the weight savings point of view, I believe that metal materials will be preferred.
Thanks for the insights!
Heat set resin with fiber re-enforcement would not have the side effects, allow sheets to be stamped into shape and die cut like sheet metal.
How about plastic for the robotaxi