How LMFP and Sodium Ion Batteries will Change the Battery Market // 2023, 2025, and 2030
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ค. 2024
- New information has recently been posted on X for LMFP and Sodium Ion battery chemistries. Today we'll use that information to develop roadmaps for every major battery chemistry including LMFP, two Sodium Ion chemistries, LFP, and high nickel . From there, we'll look at how the the battery market will evolve from 2023 to 2025 to 2030.
Use my referral link to purchase a Tesla product and get free credits you can redeem for awards like Supercharging miles, merchandise and accessories. ts.la/jordan72005
Patreon: / thelimitingfactor
Paypal: www.paypal.com/paypalme/limit...
Teespring: teespring.com/stores/the-limi...
Twitter: / limitingthe
Venmo: @thelimitingfactor
Timeline
00:00 Introduction
01:20 BYD Slides on Sodium Ion
06:20 Sodium Ion Roadmap
10:58 Soochow Slides on LMFP
17:00 LMFP Roadmap
19:22 LFP Roadmap
24:20 High Nickel Roadmap
28:41 2023 Comparison Table & Market Analysis
29:58 2025 Comparison Table & Market Analysis
32:06 2030 Comparison Table & Market Analysis
34:31 Loose End 1 // This Assumes Everything Goes Well
34:45 Loose End 2 // Average Cost vs Tesla
35:59 Loose End 3 // Tesla’s Plans for Other Chemistries
36:49 Closing
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
You are now my sole source for this genre of information. No one else even come close to the depth and breadth of information you provided.
I'm glad to hear it, Bob! 🤠
I was just going to say that!
What took you so long???
He is the man!
@@thelimitingfactordid I miss it? What is the anode chemistry for sodium ion battery
As an electrician who likes to keep current on battery tech, it is so nice to have all of this information collated and laid out in such an understandable way. In my experience in the energy storage industry, keeping up with information is half the work.
No limits on The Limiting Factor👍👍
@@ken-mb5cp 🤣🤣🤣🤣👍👍
"the difference between genius and stupidity? Is genius has it's limits" 😁
Keep up the great work Gordon. Your videos set the standard for high-level technical review on TH-cam for people looking for big picture overviews on these critical topics related to sustainable energy and transportation.
Thanks man 😀
@@thelimitingfactor GREAT JOB GORDON!!!
Gordon Battery Johnson
I thought his name was Jordan. Fun fact: Jordan and Gordon are the same when spoken in an Egyptian accent.
@@Moses_VIIit is Jordan, was a mistake from the original comment (I presume) and a joke from the others
Let's gooooo! I've been following battery research long enough to remember sodium ion benchtop papers (it wasn't an extremely long time ago)
Fantastic work as usual Jordon!
For vehicles silicon anode NM batteries are the ones I am watching. High power density with quick recharge is what is needed.
For stationary uses, low cost sodium cells make a lot of sense as price and safety are the main drivers.
Fantastic video again, Jordan. Actually watched it on X first. Really looking forward to sodium batteries ramping to alleviate some of the lithium supply problems, though you did a great job illustrating that they are a puzzle piece of the solution, not the solution itself
Amen! I hope my estimate is conservative.
But, even if it isn't sodium ion should dominate in the 2030s
Thank you for the (as always) excellent analysis. Would love to see information on the scaling of battery recycling supply chains as well. Not only for lithium, but also for nickel, manganese, cobalt, etc.
🔥🔥🔥 Thanks for the support! Much appreciated. Graphite is what I'd like to cover next 🤠 But, I'm also starting a series on Grid Storage. So much to cover!
Another great video Jordon. I appreciate your professionalism and work to share a topic that is not simple nor exciting, even though it will have a major impact on all our lives, most people would not deep dive batteries.
Not that your lacking content, but if you want a discussion type of video that might not have to be as deep dive, the recent battery expo a few channels had been covering, made me think it would be good to have maybe a 20 yearish retrospective of EV tech/battery tech that had gotten hype at an expo but what made it to market and what ended up being vaporware? Maybe John over at Autoline would be up for the chat. Also touch bases with the Connect The Dots channel as well. Just those two guys would bring decades of knowledge related to the topic.
I think it is good to look back to help dull down some of the hype get today. I see people acting like batteries that recharge in five minutes will be on the market next year based on hype from a demo at an expo. My hope is the shelf life of the video will be longer for you as well.
Just a thought. Keep up the great work.
Thanks man!
Great video Jordan! Super well organized for these five various battery chemistries and associated best use cases. 🤜🤛
🤠🙏
That was a very sneaky "Nice!" snuck in there for sodium ion working its way down to 69% the cost of LFP.
😂😂😂 I forgot about that
Nice.
Look forward to battery technology ! Especially LMFP since CATL seems to have something real special.
Or M3P
Really nice video! Will be interesting seeing some figures for nickel manganese in 2030 added to the comparison!
🤜🤛🤠
Great view Jordan. Thank you. 🙏
Another great video Jordan, thank you for all the hard work.
Sure thing man! Thanks for watching 🤠
I am very glad to be able to point people to your videos instead of sending them white papers when trying to explain battery chemistries and the issues bringing them to market. Keep up the amazing work!
Thanks for an excellent video
Excellent piece of work..now this lays out the potential and realistic reality of energy cell industry....
Many thanks for this excellent video! 😊
🤜🤛
Another great video. Lots to unpack. thanks
Yeah, it's pretty dense 😁
Thank you!
Thanks for another amazing overwiev of battery development. What I wonder is how much will silicon anode improvements level the playing field in terms of cost and energy density when combined with the less expensive cathodes. Can even a high silicon anode be used with sodium? And what about sodium metal anode - does sodium have the same dendrite problems as lithium?
Sodium doesn't have as many options for increasing energy density through the anode. That's the short story.
Great work Jordan 👍
😊
great vid as usual! Thx Jordan.
🤠🙏
this is like University
and I love it
❤
Many thanks Jordan. Your always provide the great video which full of data, information, excellent and meaningful.
Happy to hear it's useful! 😀
Thanks Jordan!
You're most welcome!
Thanks for the great content as always! Does your LFP roadmap take into account the recent CATL Shenxing LFP battery announcement? It seems to combine the benefits of LFP and NCM battery chemistries or at least makes it a no brainer for most EV applications? Or am I over reading their announcement?
Shenxing really seems to be more of the onging evolution of LFP
But, without a teardown we really don't know anything. I'll be interested to see what turns up
...and yes, I took that into account
Great information about the battery production time line 👍🏽👍🏽
Yeah I'm interested to see how it plays out!
Thanks!
🙋♂️👍 THANKS JORDAN 🤗 and YOUR SUPPORTERS,FOR YOUR HARD WORK 😅AND GOOD EXPLANATIONS 🧐 💚💚💚
🤜🤛🤠
Excellent video once again Jordan but I may have to watch it again to look at the charts a little bit longer. Gotion Hi Tech is going to start producing batteries a few miles from me fairly soon. The building is already there so it shouldn't take too long to build the production lines. I don't recall you mentioning that company before and I was wondering about the kind of batteries they would expect to make if you have any knowledge about that company. I believe the plan is to build another factory in Michigan as well but they will need to build the factory first. Thanks again for the videos!
Yeah, there's a lot there!
As for Gotion, there's a myriad of players coming online. If a company has supply agreements with a large Western automaker, they're Tier 1. From memory they're focused on LFP.
Great video, again
Thanks man!
The best overview of battery options and potential I’ve ever seen.
🤜🤛🤠
I've yet to see one which isn't the best at the time.
Excellent
Luv this geeky stuff
I ❤your Intro 🎶 🌎
Thanks ☺️
I expected charge time to be huge consideration for personal vehicles.
Not really. It's a priority for a minority. But for a manufacturer, it's lower in the list. That's why Tesla didn't even really mention it at battery day.
The infrastructure challenges, and the associated PR attacks, make charging time an Achilles heel, particularly in the US.
Faster charging would do much to disarm the well funded anti-EV propaganda operations, and the more skeptical elements of the buying public.
I think it's important not to overlook the significance of anti-EV agitation.
This is the best about the present and future of big battery!
Liked, already subscribed and saved under "Tesla stuff".
Glad to hear it! 😁
Congratulations for having a sponsor 🎉
🤠
I think safety is going to become the number 1 issue as battery numbers proliferate and that will determine the ultimate winner.
Yeah, in the long term I think it'll play a larger role
Do you think Sodium-Sulfur could be a plausible future pathway towards cheap high density batteries?
Yes, but not at the scales we need by the end of the decade
Also Lithium Sulfur are good. But again there is no high volume production in the end of the decade.
Really good information. Mostly over my head though. Now i know how people felt when i droned on about cubic inches and compression ratios !
😂💯
Thanks
🙌You're most welcome!
Great content as usual. Could you comment on the charge and discharge profile of sodium ion battery and how would that affect the usage of sodium ion battery? Thank you.
We have to see how that plays out
I think this is one of the things that the market needs to test and we need to get them into mass production before. We really know how that changes their commercial viability
It is a very good point and it's the thing that I'm most concerned about with sodium ion
Voltage hysteresis and voltage range
You should try to interview Jeff Dahn. A multi part interview would be your highest viewed. Worth a try.
A super condensation of excellent analysis of the industry that is designed to save the electrified planet, Teaching and Learning techniques setting the self teaching standards to be followed.
😀
Really interesting video, thanks ! "Prediction is hard - especially about the future..."
😁💯
I suspect sodium ion will also find a solid position in low-range long-use transport like buses and subway cars. They may also show up in drayage, even though cycle life isnt super critical, but safety is.
Trains too. There’s one company that is powering individual train cars allowing them to move on their own or separate groups autonomously
I had some dipper in a comments section say that Tony Seba's predictions on battery cost reductions were "obvious," and he incorrectly based this comment on "Moore's Law." I think these predictions (around 7-8 years ago), despite being on a semi-clear declining cost curve, are incredibly accurate and anything but obvious. Also, more important than exact predictions is that Tony identified key cost curves/trends and spoke about their potential impact to society. Prediction accuracy adds credibility to his larger points about the massive disruption that will occur.
Jordan, it's all obvious and certain, so you can shut your channel down now. ;^)
🤣💯
Yeah, love those comments
@@thelimitingfactor Thanks bud. Just browsing the comments, it's amazing how often your name is spelled wrong. Jordon, Gordon, etc. Should I try Jordjuan, Jordache, Gordo, Yourdan, or maybe Jourdneyman. ;^) All kidding aside, you bring such depth to your vids, it's really informing/impressive. You get geeked on battery tech but then pull back and look at larger factors like the market, scaling, demand, use cases, material availability, maturity, etc. Your tech knowledge of batteries could easily lead to "forest for the trees" syndrome but I think your larger perspective on the market/uses is actually more impressive than the tech. Go consult to CATL or something. ;^)
I don’t put a lot of stock into those cycle lifetimes when testing is at low c-rates with long taper times at the top and bottom of each cycle with impractical rest periods. They don’t disclose the test parameters when touting a high cycle life.
My like was nr 1000🎉
Kia ora from Wellington, Aotearoa. I now work at Asteron House 😊
I haven't heard the words Asteron House in a while, lol 🔥
I just remembered this channel & tracked you down to ask- have you ever done any videos in the past in regards to “Enovix” silicon-anode lithium ion batteries? I recently started researching the company. Thanks!
Hello! I haven't, but it's just like the hundreds of other battery start-ups. You don't really know if they're going to succeed until they succeed because all the important stuff is under NDA, etc.
Re High Nickel, it seems latest in 2030 we see a lot of electric planes. Well done Jordan.
There's going to be special formulations for planes that are more expensive but much higher energy density 🤠
agreeable. I made a prediction around last year that LFP may be cost competitive vs Sodium Ion and they would be used interchangeably in cars and energy storage in the years to come. Thing is, as Sodium Ion production ramps up, lithium mining, refining, manufacture also ramps up. As supply of sodium ion batteries will always be short, LFP at times, will have a surplus, forcing lower prices that comes close to sodium ion.
why sodium ion will be short?
@@elon-69-musk I meant to say that sodium batteries are already sold as they come out of the factory as it ramps up production. There will be a race/competition between Sodium and LFP batteries to large production. Nickel based chemistries will be left in the dust as Na/LFP will continue to drive prices down.
It's a fair point but one that's hard to predict
Great information but in the end it's hard to tell where to place one's money. Obviously Tesla, and maybe CATL and byd. Any other company?
Do those BOM costs on the LFP vs Sodium actually account for capacity of the battery? Those BYD slides seem a little, weird.
Great analysis!
Thanks man! I'm not sure what you mean, but general the bill of materials is done at kWh rather than material weight, so it would include capacity
@@thelimitingfactor Ah, I was thinking it was BOM per cell rather than per kWh. Thanks.
Great information! I doubt that high nickel content batteries will have better cycle life than LMFP though.
You can make them last for 10,000 cycles
It all just depends on which trade-off decisions you make
This is all very exciting. So many people can be lifted out of poverty by solar and affordable long lasting battery storage. Decentralized clean electric power is the best for human flourishing IMO. A better future is definitely possible.
Amen!
I watched this a while ago, and didn't notice this datapoint. You didn't scale up cycle life on the LMFP battery cell at all from today to 2030, but you did on all the other chemistries. Was this just a missed update, or is there a reason you think cycle life will not improve for LMFP batteries? Also, I wonder about M3P, which is not just Manganese doping, but also Aluminum and Zink. Not sure what difference that makes. Do you have any information on that?
I explained why it didn't scale up in the video.
M3P is LMFP - explained my 'CATL M3P' video
@@thelimitingfactorI must have missed it, I will watch it again. Haven't seen your M3P video yet, will have to find that one. Thanks.
Great overview!
When will home storage cost come anywhere near these $/kWh numbers? Still obscene margins there...
Oh, probably 20 years. No joke
For home storage you aren't buying in bulk, and you aren't paying cost, you're paying the price after profits.
Furthermore, you aren't just buying a pack, you're buying a lot of other wiring and equipment as well.
@@thelimitingfactor
I see "potential" (😉) for a local ("end of road") Megapack solution to replace individual home packs.
Home Solar connected to the Pack which feeds power back to those homes FOC, Arbitrage for excess, split with owners.
Megapacks have multiple input/ output options(?).
Only one "Grid" connection required?
1 grid connection, reduced complication?
.
Similar to an internet LAN?
technical an efficient solution, but as soon as there are a few meters public grid involved, one has to pay monthly obscenities I am afraid.
polyanion looks like the stationary king if kwhr is below $75
Thanks Jordan. Can you talk us through Graphene Aluminium-Ion battery technology, and its theoretically much higher gravimetric and high power capabilities? I understand that GMG are already prototyping cells which are reaching almost 300 Wh/kg, with a road map to around 1,000 Wh/kg.
It's one of many technologies. GMG has just successfully hyped their product more than most. I do think it's an interesting technology, but not a dominant tech this decade.
Thanks. It may well be one of many battery 'breakthrough' technologies which either don't scale very well, are over-hyped or ar outright scams. This one has a ring of truth to it though, so I'll keep an eye on it.@@thelimitingfactor
Even in cars with higher-density main batteries, sodium batteries have a place for cold weather concerns. They would be worthwhile as a HV cold-start section (say 10-20% of the main battery), and more widely, all lead acid battery applications should become sodium.
Pointless, just warm up the battery. No need to dick around with mixing and matching cells, which goes against lean principles.
@@thelimitingfactor Considering e.g. how many drivers (particularly of ID.4's) fast charge to 100%, having a version for cold markets that doesn't require drivers to think ahead and heat up their battery from -20°C seems worthwhile. There are plenty of times when foolproofing is more important than lean design.
What are your thoughts on this Jordan? After watching tesla investor day they mentioned that they have an xl mega pack which is the largest you can fit transporting on the back of a truck until you need special permits for road closure and transporting over size objects.
These permits can cost in the thousands to tens of thousands.
So obviously it is cost effective to keep these packs this size they went on to say this is the largest they will make.
So if you have your volumetric density of sodium at 280 and lfp at 450 sodium is 60% less then lfp in volume so when it comes to mega pack construction you'd be looking at paying another 40% on the other costs associated as more mega packs will be needed in a sodium large scale grid storage project.
Eg. Copper wire, electronic components, battery management systems and cooling systems.
The shell,casing and construction of the second pack frame.
Labour costs and higher factory floor print.
Transporting cost
On site crane and site preparation cost
The cost of additional land space to house the packs.
Additional connection costs from pack to pack as there will now be more
And possibly other costs suppliers, staff ect.
Would lfp be more economical in large scale projects as volumetric density is an issue is this scenario and sodium best used for smaller grid and home storage? Cheers
That's actually a really fantastic point. Thank you!
I think it would add some additional cost at the project level.
However, probably not as much as we would expect.
That's because shipping cost is only fractional compared to the cost of a megapack which is $2 million.
As for the additional wiring, that might be the case, but you can also pack more sodium ion battery cells in because they're a more stable chemistry.
Plus, you might be able to do with a less intensive cooling system.
That's all my speculation based on the first principles advantages of sodium ion, but it is something I have to factor in the future
@thelimitingfactor thanks for the reply,
Yes i agree with all your points especially the cooling system it would be very interesting to see how a full feasibility study on all variables metioned and some missed on sodium vs lfp for large grid storage projects.
Thanks for all your content aswell your one of the most indepth analysts about this industry on TH-cam absolute legend cheers
I still think LFP batteries are what I want in an EV - even using your 2030 numbers. The safety, long cycle life and reasonable range seems to be the best compromise. In particular the range is consistent through the life of the vehicle, and the EV keeps its value over time. Finally, "good" safety is not good enough if it catches my house on fire.
It's definitely a good choice for now!
@@thelimitingfactor
There's also an argument that the smaller a vehicle gets, the more the need for a light, high density *cell* in a smaller, lighter *pack* becomes desirable.
.
As the vehicle ("box") shrinks, the pack becomes
comparatively larger to both the volume and weight of the overall vehicle.
...
Basic summation of Sodium: "Light, but large for a given output"?
.....
So at least for now, Sodium for
Storage (larger the better)
.
"Non space critical, known range" transport
(Buses, etc)
.
One question (bearing in mind I'm part way through)
The same that's been asked of LiFePo4.
A combination of cheap, abundant material, in a rapid, high volume low impact production process would seem desirable?
Sodium ion/ 4680? (Specifically small factory, dry process)
Bright future for energy storage - high likelihood of price drops making it more and more feasible. Accurate take?
Even at current prices it's a bonanza...lower prices will only increase that opportunity. So yes, accurate 🤠
About batteries, further to ev, don't you think also evtol, drones, robots, mining vehicles should be considered for quantification of the demand supply gap?
I'm not sure what you mean, that wasn't the topic of the video
0:33 LFP for 75$ per KWH?
the cheapest i can find from a sketchy site from a sketchy seller is 500$ in my country
bruuuhh.....
Yeah, hard to believe, but that's the manufacturing cost.
Given Teslas refinery is near the ocean (or Gulf of Mexico) what is the likelihood Tesla is planning their own Sodium Ion batteries and the reason for the location is sourcing of sodium from the ocean? (clearly, Tesla will not disclose it until it’s in production and they have high confidence for success) - WDYT?
They're just starting to research sodium ion batteries, so it's going to be many years
I want a sodium powerwall
Me too 😃
I wonder what are the energy price assumptions in battery manufacturing in 2030. Do they assume the same price as now.
Who's they?
Its expected to be lower of course as it has been going down for years. Thats the trend.
One 'troubling' issue I see with LMFP is the cycle life projections to 2030 which remain 'flat' at 2000 cycles.
I explained why that was
Do BYD have a history of estimating too high cycle life for their coming products?
They do have a history of exaggeration, yes.
Every battery maker does.
Every new battery announcement comes with a heaping shovel full of bullshit.
Yes as shown in the vid.
How much cost amprius silicone anode battery? Is it possible that in future it will be less than 100$/kwh?
Closer to $1000 kwh
@@thelimitingfactor so it will stay niche product and never come to afordable car market...?
Where are you getting the data indicating that battery prices have increased in the last 4 years?
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
They run a price survey each year and it's kind of the gold standard that happens around Christmas time that everybody waits for
Look at benchmarks stuff battery prices have come down. They are back below $100kwh
This question is unrelated to this video.
At what ambient temperature do you expect the Tesla Semi to operate with highest efficiency? 25°C? 15? 5? -5?
It's well understood that passenger electric vehicles perform best around 25°. Li-ion cells are known to perform best at warm temperatures, and of course heating the cabin is costly, especially for short trips.
But for long trips, with such a large ratio of drivetrain/cabin, it seems to be that the battery and motors will be generating significant excess heat, and will require cooling even in ambient temperatures well below room temperature. The heat pump will be more efficient the colder the ambient temperature. So I'm thinking the optimal ambient temperature of the Semi should be significantly lower than that for light-duty vehicles.
Any thoughts? Could be an interesting brief video topic.
I'd have to do a deep dive. Lots of factors as you know 🤠
@@thelimitingfactor
Is this where I chime in.... "Ah! But what's the LIMITING factor!!?" 😂
Apart from anything else, the SEMI packs are further from the road surface so have more opportunity for (thicker) insulation.
That's going to stabilise temperature.
(Active venting for high temps)
I wonder if there are any scenarios that bring additional lithium to market, sooner. Is that just technically impossible, given the limitations of available mining/refining industry infrastructure?
Alternately, with Toyota and Ford pulling back from BEV designs and pushing forward a new generation of hybrids, maybe we will see LESS lithium on the market, near term.
It's mainly limitation created by regulations rather than technical
How is the battery market looking right now? BYD and CATL both growing rapidly, Tesla starting up, LG? Others?
It's such a complex market that I'm not sure what your question is.
@@thelimitingfactor yeah, that is the point- there is so much new production coming online that it is hard to see the current trends (apart from insane china focused growth). So the question is can it be broken down, how is the market share, is the tech/facilities of some outdated
Re usefulness of improved cycle life for vehicle battery. US national average driven say 15,000/year. Battery pack say advertised 300 miles. Assume operate battery never lower than 20% and never above 80% miles between charge = 240 miles. 15,000/240= ~63 recharge/year. A battery pack capable of 1400 recharge cycles will therefore last 1400/63 = 22years. What is benefit of a higher recycle rate for vehicle batteries?
I don't understand the question.
If a vehicle battery pack with a cycle life of say 1400 cycles will last an average use BEV over 22 years, what is cost benefit of chasing increased cycle life for BEV battery packs? And thank you for you response.
@@stephen7218 I guess the use case would be robotaxis, which would have many times higher utilization than the average car.
If said vehicle is going 100k miles a year then the equation could be different.
27:55 then when the car disintegrates you can put that battery into a new car, or put the battery into grid storage
or it would be nice if planned obsolescence eneded and manufacturers would make good cars like some japanese cars from the 90s, i have a car like that and it never breaks, I have also a motorcycle from the 80s (honda africa twin) and it also never breaks
with electric vehicles it should be even easier
Yup, but if that's your strategy you'll either lock yourself into a pack design (like Nio) or end up with a ragtag bunch of packs for grid storage...which isn't as reliable.
Yeah, some companies will go for that, but it'll be the scrapyard digger type companies
Modern vehicles should EASILY reach 25 years. The important thing here is that used EVs wont just be garbage only good for short range trips. You are forgetting that the used car market is dramatically bigger than the new car market. A big part of the reputation that Toyota gained is that you could buy a used high-milage Toyota and know that you would still get another decade out of it. Whoever can promise that in an EV will own the future.
@@thelimitingfactor
I think we're more likely to (eventually) see a Robotaxi with its third body/ suspension/ interior/ technology refurbishment leaving a "Mega Refurb Centre" (previously known as, for instance, "Giga Texas") With a "1,000,000 mile pack which was matched to the body frame 30(?) years previously.
.
The "new" (recycled) composite body panels will have "tweaked" styling and a new wrap, so when the cab collects you for your regular A.I booked commute on Monday morning, you'll think it's brand new, and have no idea it's the same cab "shell" which collected you the previous Thursday.
.
The refurb only took 2 hours at the centre from drive in to drive out, the rest was 2 days on the Autonomous Semi with 11 others.
.
By the time it collects you, the "old" suspension arms will have new bushes, the seats new upholstery, etc, and all will be installed on another shell.
.
Best use of resources.
.
So long story short, LFP checks the most boxes so that will be the focus over the next decade.
I covered this in the video, so I'm not sure if this comment was made before watching the video
If Silicon anodes become a thing I think high Nickle cathodes will disappear entirely.
That doesn't make sense, they're synergistic
@@thelimitingfactorYes, but synergy isn't a uniquely significant thing that validates one course of technical development and invalidates another. For a company wanting to make winning financial investments (and justifiable investments of time and effort developing technologies that offer genuine benefits to users) Elon's first principles thinking is called for. Technically, whatever the preferred cathode material might be a good silicon anode will allow the cell manufacturer to up their game.
Looking across the viable materials for a cathode NMC and high Nickel cathodes seem expendable whereas LFP, LMFP and other more advanced battery chemistries capable of being used in aviation applications remain essential. The less expensive LFP/LMFP chemistries are pushing up into the NMC/high Nickel space and the more expensive chemistries if rapidly scaled have the potential to push down into that same space.
The advent of electrical transport will come much quicker if both of those things happen at the same time. Tesla, has everything it needs to quickly transition to other battery chemistries if those chemistries should make better progress than it had anticipated.
I could have chosen my words better, however. I should have said that if Silicon anodes become a thing high Nickel cathodes could start looking marginal to informed buyers who could reasonably prefer LMFP (if economy was the main criterion) or a more cutting edge chemistry (if energy and power density and/or reduced weight were the top priorities).
Gotion LMFP Battery L600 240Wh/kg 525Wh/l Production starts in 2024!
That's unlikely
We'll see what the actual numbers are with a teardown...
The only exception is if they use silicon, but that has drawbacks
@@thelimitingfactor here is a video from Gotion: th-cam.com/video/uCL74JdolAg/w-d-xo.html. I don't know how they achieved this. Unfortunately, we don't know the most important thing: the price. The companies do not make their prices public. Anyone who doesn't deal with batteries doesn't know how powerful the technology is. It's all about the costs, nothing else is important anymore. Other technologies such as silicon, lithium metal or semi solid are missing from your great contribution. The technologies are like building blocks and can be combined. I am firmly convinced that battery technology is developing much faster than most people think. Maybe in five years we will see a cheap semi-solid sodium battery with 300Wh/kg that can be charged quickly. Maybe from 24M.
Sulphur selenium is where it’s at...
Could be, but not this decade
There is so much space in roof and trunk in car why dont they make bigger battery now with cheap sodium
Centre of gravity/weight/etc
@@thelimitingfactor what about doubledecker bus 🤔
To summarize, battery technology is the wild wild west stage! Guess thats why Tesla is using so many battery vendors, including Tesla!
It's crazy for sure. So many variables
Stole my analogy!!
Tesla is aiming for it's 4680s to cost $55 kWh. Which throws out that whole table.
There's been huge inflation since 2020, which throws out your whole argument.
It's also worth noting that they never gave a specific dollar cost, and Elon recently said $70
One of your main arguments was basing the cost per kwh on raw material cost.
The price of nickel has come down dramatically(closer to ,
2020 prices) and with Indonesia flooding the market with HPAL nickel that is unlikely to change.
You also glazed over the fact prof Dahns single crystal cathodes have a 16,000 cycle life and are lasting 6.4mil km.
LG is currently in the process of mass producing single crystal cathodes they will most likely be here before 2025.
Then it just comes down to educating the customer on best cycle method.
4680 of which chemistry?
Teslas 4680 are Nickel.
trust me, byd‘s roadmap is not reliable
X is a disaster. I had to delete the app.
👍
If you were to pick a battery chemistry that balances energy density and safety, what would be your pick? For the safety aspect of it, I'm referring to something that is not combustable as what we presently see with lithium-ion batteries.
The issue is that there's a large range of combustibility between lithium ion chemistries.
All batteries can catch on fire because they all store energy.
If you're looking for the balance, look at the tables I created and the answer is apparent.
LFP is middle of the road on energy, density and safety.
But I personally don't care which is in my garage because they can all burn the house down.
... Not that I'm expecting that to happen.
EV is the winning technoogy to bet on.. when the dust settles..present deficiencies will be solved by new technology breakthroughs within the foreseeable future!..then it will be obvious that it is the superior technology..no compromise taken!
Thanks!
🙏