The Global Lithium Supply Chain and Tesla’s 50% Growth Rate I ~3 Month Project
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- How will the Global Lithium Supply Chain evolve this decade and how will that affect Tesla’s 50% Growth Rate target? I've spent the last 3 months investigating the topic and assembling this video to give you a comprehensive view.
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
02:11 Too Long; Didn’t Watch
05:53 Thanks, Credits, and Sources
09:15 Why is Lithium the Bottleneck?
10:48 Mining is Easy, Refining is Hard? A Red Herring
11:52 Lithium Refining // Margins
20:17 Fixed Price Contracts are being Phased Out
22:28 Lithium Refining // Forecast and Lead Times
25:17 Why is Tesla Pushing for More Refining?
29:27 Tesla Needs to Flirt Better with Entrepreneurs
30:04 Refining Integration could Save Tesla Billions
31:50 Lithium Refining // Interim Summary
32:29 Is there Enough Lithium in the Ground?
35:34 Let’s Evaluate Three Lithium Forecasts…
42:46 Benchmark’s Forecast // Revisions Explained
45:12 Lithium Supply in 2030 // Bull and Bear Cases
46:35 A Recent History of Lithium Supply and Demand
50:29 Australia / 2-3 Years // Brownfields Projects
51:40 Australia / 2-3 Years // Faster Extraction Rate
56:56 Australia / 2-3 Years // Two Non-Starters
58:00 Australia / 4-7 Years // Greenfields Projects
01:03:57 South American Lithium Brines
01:05:36 China // Lepidolites to the Rescue?
01:09:06 United States // Lithium Clays and Brines
01:11:11 The Potential of Direct Lithium Extraction
01:13:15 Africa // A Wild Card with Huge Potential
01:17:10 Canada // Hard Rock and Lithium Brines
01:17:58 Other Countries
01:18:32 Global Lithium Supply Forecast
01:23:32 The Forecast for Sodium Ion Batteries
01:27:35 Combining the Li & Na Battery Forecasts
01:29:57 When will Tesla Face a Battery Shortage?
01:34:47 OEM Li Bonanza // Is Tesla Getting Left Behind?
01:35:36 Why Tesla Should Get into Li Mining & Refining
01:37:54 Three Ways for Tesla to “Get into Li Mining”
01:38:50 Why is Tesla Avoiding Lithium Mining?
01:40:59 What about other Chemistries?
01:41:57 Video Summary // 10 Key Points
01:48:57 The Lithium Bottleneck vs ‘Peak Oil’ Comparison
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
This video needs to be watched with a coffee and note book
Yeah I went through a whole pot of coffee!
Jordan, I'm at the 9min mark and as a Patreon I can only encourage others here watching this to pay you, it's criminal not to show some gratitude for your insane work. I hope Elon Musk will notice.
1
I am 40 mins in and for the most part I don't even know what he is talking about 😅
This guy is like finding a big ol nugget of gold after years of fruitless panning. I am so sick of these other channels. Most use ai generated topics, then ai generated text, and then ai generated B-roll, and half the time, an ai generated voice. Great work
I see only 40’something likes but 340 views. I don’t understand how a Patreon member does not automatically like content that they are subscribed to. Y’all gotta “like” content more
The big wildcard in this is direct extraction from brine. Currently the extraction rate for brine is near 25%. That would be a 4x increase with no new mining. But aside from that it drops the production time way down expanding potential output.
Elon: The spice must flow
Jordan: There are limiting factors
😁
I may have missed it in the presentation but by 2040-2050 I wonder how heavily the recycle stream will factor into lithium supply.
That was included in benchmark minerals forecast.
The one that shows the breakdown of the different types of supply.
@@thelimitingfactor Great, thanks.
I can scarcely imagine the months of work that go into this detailed market analysis. Thanks
🙏 You're most welcome!
Good analysis, Jordan. I hope you are getting hired as a consulant to the EV industry and I hope you make big $$$ doing so.
Wow, amazing. I didn't think I could watch it all in one go, but in the end I more or less did. The video is well-structured.
🙌 Woohoo! I'm glad to hear it!
My goodness that was a huge amount of work that went into making this video. Can’t thank you enough for informing us with this very important topic. Thank you thank you thank you.
You're most welcome! 🤠
What a tour de force in market analysis! This work represents a baseline to which all future models will be compared. Spectacular from start to finish.
🙏🤠
While I agree Tesla should get into Lithium mining through partnerships, it is only one of the their primary affordability constraints. Which is why Elon was speaking of interest rates at the last earnings call. A factor outside his control and a constraint on CAPEX for mining.
Thank you for the information about transparency like YT ads etc.
Re lithium resources, whats about Bolivia?
There could be additional high quality battery demand for electric planes.
Well done. Also the Sodium batteries.
You have been looking into issues I never considered.
Being a Patron, I am proud what you delivered here.
Thanks for the kind words! I'm glad to hear it.
Bolivia is included in benchmark's forecast. And the same things I said about Chile and Argentina apply there. 🤠
I suspect the demand curves are over estimated. They probably assume the large legacy auto companies will all continue to exist at some large volume of EVs. You can already see them dragging their feet on EVs. As ICE car demand drops some of them will not survive the phase change. TaaS (i.e. robotaxis) will start to reduce vehicle demand (I think someone else pointed this out below) and, long term, EVs will probably last 2 or 3 times as long as an average ICE car so there will be a lower demand for replacement vehicles. We already passed peak auto a few years ago. If yearly sales stabilize around half the present rate it could change the outlook significantly.
I think the demand was based on the demand from battery factories - that is, the number planned and when production was supposed to start, etc.
And don't forget storage and other applications for batteries, that is somewhat included in the demand from planed factories
@@thelimitingfactor Unfortunately, many legacy auto manufacturers seem to be cancelling and postponing battery factories.
I'm half way through for the second time this is a gem 💎😊 Thank you so much 💘 Loving this
🙌 Awesome! Really happy to hear it 🤠
I can tell you how much a appreciate the recognition ahead of time. This lets everyone know that your not just fluffing or making up BS. I love listening to your break downs so much, you’re actually reaching me more about lithium, mining and refining more than I ever wanted to know. Lol. Thanks for all you do.
😁 Glad to hear it and thanks for watching!
Great video Jordan I realized you touched on this but, recycling old batteries for there materials or just using them in other applications may be a larger factor in end use and, supply chain issues if it could be done economically at some point.
Looks like you covered everything possible on the topic. I've talked with LA and some other industry insiders and they are very excited about the possibilities with american lithium mining.
I hope it takes off!
American's are complaining about mines in Europe, the US has so much NIMBYism that Piedmont can't get a mining licence, the US currently has a snowballs chance in hell.
im not a investor or anything but these videos are so detailed that i watch just for entertainment lol
💯🤠
Jordan, maybe i just did not noticed, but is there more info than the original announcement from Tesla about their lithium project with "table salt" extraction method? They have specific land in mind with that, do we know the size of that deposit in that location? Anything known about that? Thanks for this massive comprehensive overview about lithium. Much appreciated.
I think I cover than in the next section of the video. 🤠
Seems like even the macro can have big effects on ev growth. Demand may slow enough to allow supply to keep up.
It'll work the opposite. If demand slows, prices drop, and investment drops.
Beyond that, I've assumed there are no limits to Tesla gobbling market share - that is I've assumed no demand competition.
My sincere hope is that regulations, auditing, and impact studies can be massively sped up with AI assistants in the next couple years. Hopefully the people making money stretching out these processes allow it to occur
with how much money miners make from scarcity i bet they will bribe the politicians to make opening new mines even harder
we have to hope that someone makes a great invention to make extracting lithium from water profitable
Hell yea dude! cant wait to dive into this, thank you!
Sure thing buddy!
Great video, Jordan. One area where I'm more optimistic than you is in how governments can move quickly when there is sufficient societal pressure. If you had predicted how long it would takecto get a person on the moon prior to the space race starting or how long it would take to develop a fission weapon prior to the Manhattan Project, the estimates would likely have been way too conservative. I believe that lithium shortage will generate pressures of similar magnitude to those historic programs and the mining timelines will miraculously get accelerated. It will require significant pain to get to the point where the pressure is sufficient to trigger that though and I agree that Tesla is dropping the ball.
I hope so! We need a minerals Manhattan project
Thank you endlessly for your astounding research and information. You are unquestionably the preeminent Tesla/TSLA analyst, because you cover the actual company, rather than the stock market, charts, options, etc.
You're welcome! 🤠 Glad to share with the community
Late to this and working my way through this excellent piece. Just my small point, there is the potential for some relief from designing in greater efficiencies for power trains and moving away from bloated SUVs, “crossovers” and vehicles based on ICE vehicles rather than bespoke platforms, giving us smaller batteries for equivalent range.
Thanks! While true, there's other things that balance that out like the switch to LFP batteries which use more lithium per kilowatt hour and the fact that Tesla's moving into vehicles like the semi, which use an enormous amount of batteries.
I avoid getting into those factors because it's really playing around the edges and there's vectors going several different directions that seem to balance out.
this is comprehensive and, thorough!
😊
As a Patreon supporter you are a gem to making the perfect Crystal ball for now and into the future on battery consumptions. I wonder if Elon has contact you to add to your studies??? Well done. Thanks.
Glad to hear it was useful 🤠
He hasn't contacted me, but I know he's aware of me. Drew Baglino follows me on Twitter.
Awsome work 🔥
Amazing effort thank you
Excellent video. Watched every single minute 🙏🏻
🔥🙏
this is incredible. thankyou sir
Great Study! Lithium & Tesla!
great work
A brilliant video. Huge amount of work. Kudos!
🙏
Thank you so much for such great work! Would love to see more content regarding renewable energy sector!!! appreciated
Love your channel. Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it and thanks for the support!
Thanks Jordan, great job!
You're most welcome! And thanks for the support 🔥🙏
Thank you!
Wow, great job. Really great job.
🤜🤛🤠
sad you poured your heart and soul into this world class research and presented it in an impressive ,cohesive , verbal document and all I can say is " great job " underwhelming in my expression of amazement and humbleness in what you presented !! JUST SIMPLY FANTASTIC !!!! AND YOU DESERVE ALOT MORE CREDIT than I am able to bestow
THANKS JORDAN for sharing your time, dedication and knowledge and pulling together so many wonderful experts and resource.
I watch a MULTITUDE of videos daily.....hands down one of the VERY BEST ive listen to
CONGRATS. MY HATS OFF TO YOU SIR
This is a fantastic bit of work.
🙏
👍 Nice job
upvoted!!!
Deus ex machina! OMG I had to stop the video & Google hard until I found, read, & understood the reference. 😂. Back to my listening pleasure. Great video & education!
😁😁😁
1:08:41 ☮️
Absolutely an awesome video on battery materials supply chain! I'm wondering what the role of FSD will be on materials supply/demand. By that I mean, if a vehicle (fixed set of materials) can supply 5 times the utility compared to a vehicle that does not have FSD, then is the demand for materials going to be reduced (we don't need as many vehicles) and/or will Tesla be able to outbid everyone else for the materials that are available because their vehicles are worth so much more.
It very well could reduce the demand, but not to any extent that we'd see this decade.
That's because it will also be displacing other transport modes and also increasing the demand for transport because it will be lower priced.
Thanks!
Great job Jordan....very educational. It's a slow moving machine the mining machine..not like a tap
Nice work....have you included the increase in TWh energy per Mt of lithium over time as batteries become more efficient?
Increasing the energy density of batteries only reduces the amount of non lithium weight in the battery.
The only thing that affects that is changing the voltage which is actually dropping as we use more LFP
@@thelimitingfactor sorry I am not clear on this. If a battery's capacity to store energy increases by 10% why doesn't the ratio of storage per lithium weight change? Is it only possible to increase the amount of storage of a cell by adding more lithium to it? Thanks
THANK YOU !!!!!
🤜🤛
I keep getting Exxon/Mobil adds about carbon capture. They're getting ready to begin some research!
Content is amazing, but your voice is butter 🧈! You should be voicing everything! Five-stars⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ on all marks.
😁 Thanks man!
TRULY AWESOME
🤠🤜🤛
Thanks
I am blown away!
Awesome! I'm glad to hear it
Great work.
I understood from Electrek in 2020, Tesla bought a mine in Nevada?
Thanks! That reportedly fell through. It happened roughly about the same time as Battery Day.
Within the context of mining extraction rate refers to how quickly a mine is fully depleted however in refining extraction rate refers to how much of the lithium in some ore is actually extracted for real use. Most lithium refineries only have extraction rates of around 30% but newer refining processes could bump that up to 70%, more than doubling reserves without increasing mining. Also mines could increase their extraction rates without increasing capital costs by switching to 24/7 operations instead of 8 hours 5 days a week.
Hmmm, are you sure that you aren't confusing DLE extraction with refining? I know a lot of DLE processes are claiming more efficient extraction from brine, but with regards to refining, the spodumene concentrate is already at 6% and it's just a matter of pulling it out with chemicals/baking - so it's already like 70-80%.
Jordan, Incredible work!
Quick question: in the past I believe I heard interviews were Drew talked about the potential of extracting lithium out of fracking wastewater. That, and extracting wastewater out of Desalination brines are two DLE applications that have captured my fascination.
Have you ever looked into this? And assuming that the technical limitations for applying DLE in these ways can be overcome, what sort of regulatory hurdles would have be cleared in order to run DLE in either of those environments? Intuition says it would be significantly lower than opening a greenfield mining site, would it be on par with running a brownfield site?
Thanks for everything that you do!
Thanks man!
Yeah, they could do that, but it'll take years to set up and get running. They do have people working on things like that.
DLE is a regulatory black box because no one has REALLY found a way to reinject the brine yet. It sounds simple, but it's not.
That might mean a longer regulatory process because there's no precedent.
Mostly, the DLE companies are talking out their butts. I've talked to the big players that are heavily invested in it. We won't know they economics until the first one is built.
The only ones that really work so far are in South America where the brines are 13-14x more concentrated and there's fewer impurities.
That is, what I said in the video still stands.
This thing is an understated masterpiece of technological and economic analysis. OMG, it's so much better than anything I've ever seen in this area. Why the various critical Industries related to Battery Technology aren't paying Jordan to do this kind of analysis for all kinds of subjects is beyond me. Two issues I wish Jordan had covered namely the impact of battery pack recycling assuming a variable pack life of 10+ years or something like that, and also what Transportation as a service might do to demand for even electric vehicles. In other words, superimposed on and interdigitating with the disruption of electric vehicles is the disruption of autonomous driving and transportation as a service.
Thanks for the kind words!
Yes, there are so many people out there that have this information but they aren't sharing it, and it's hugely frustrating!
As for battery pack recycling, it was included in the benchmark forecast under secondary materials.
As for the impact of self-driving, it's not something that will seriously impact the forecast for this decade.
However, I will say that given that Tesla has slowed down their growth rate for this year and next, it does potentially reduce the odds that they're going to run into a materials bottleneck in a few years
@@thelimitingfactor thanks for those clarifications. Your stuff is just amazing in its depth of coverage
0:35 Glad to see you calling the Peak Oil brouhaha for what it is. Is, not was, because many still believe.
Will sub on Patreon! 👍 I don't think starting a refinery in the US was actually for the reasons Elon said. He has to be a statesman with all the countries Tesla does business with. I think it was 99% for geopolitical reasons - breaking the monopoly of China and Tesla's resulting dependence on it. Never know what will happen with trade agreements, tarrifs, sanctions, etc. that could limit China's export of refined lithium, and something like that could happen next week, so it is much more pressing a concern than the mining bottleneck that's still 4-6 years away. But Elon can't say that's the reason without jeopardizing his relations with China, so he had to say the thing about mining not being an issue and the main bottleneck being refining to stay on China's good side. Elon is very much as statesman so always assume there is something going on behind the scene that completely different from what he's saying.
I agree! Geopolitical plus...inflation reduction act tax credits 🤠 Thanks for watching!
Jesus, I cannot even begin to imagine the amount of work that went into making this 'jam packed' informational video. Hats off to you sir for your hard work and dedication!
Yeah, it was a few hours, lol. Thanks for watching!
Jordan, what are your thoughts on Geely/Baidu Jiyue 01 roll out with level 4 autonomous driving?
Jiyue saying they are one of two companies using cameras.
Hi Chris! I'm not following them closely. I wish them luck. We need more companies solving FSD.
Quick question I've had for a bit now. Is this your real voice or is it a bot? Either way great job with this video.
Yup, my voice
I deactivated AdBlock on your videos 👍
No need to do that. Do whatever makes the experience best for you. ❤️
TH-cam ads pay very little, it's the patreon supporters that make the channel possible 😁
I'm about halfway through so far, any word on recycling lithium supply projection? As a percentage of overall market, would be interesting
Yep! That's included. If you look at the transcript and run a word search you can find it more quickly
This is a great presentation with amazing research and infographics to back your assumptions. I can’t believe I watched a 2 hour supply chain analysis of lithium ores.
However, I think a fundamental assumption that could have been better addressed is the number of times that you said some variation of ‘x party wants profit and high margins, Tesla wants to accelerate the transition to clean energy’ but Tesla also wants high margins and has legal obligations to shareholders to be profitable. It is true Tesla has hedged their business on that transition, and we therefore can assume it is more than a marketing line or starry eyed optimism. But. The assumption behind those statements is prejudicial against making fully informed market decisions. It would be safer to treat Tesla as a market entity capable of making bad/irrational short term decisions and market blunders. An example, you acknowledge Tesla’s market leading margins multiple times in the video and suggest Tesla could lower prices to gain market share, but that does not seem to me to be a a rational prediction based on how Tesla operates.
Thank you for all your hard work!
lol! Thanks for watching and the feedback! 🙌
Jordan at 51:00 or so, you said multiply elemental lithium by 5 to get LCOE equivalent. Presumably that is weight but not sure how that could be as you said LCE is 1% lithium. Maybe LCE is that concentrated carbonate but that’s still 6%. How do those numbers jive?
Rock is 1% lithium, spodumene concentrate is 6% lithium. And of course, bear in mind that's pure lithium rather than lithium carbonate.
That's why it takes about a 7 to 1 ratio of spodumene concentrate to make 1 LCE.
However, those are concentrations.
Pure lithium metal is just that, and lithium carbonate is lithium metal combined with carbonate.
I hope I answered the question! It can be quite confusing with all the conversions
@@thelimitingfactor oh. Silly me. I was conflating LCE with spodumene concentrate. My Bad.
Thank you for the great video!
Along with the video, I have a question about the current point of view.
According to the video, I understood that the price of lithium carbonate in China is not a complete indicator.
Nevertheless, the lithium price of "Traiding Economics" has now dropped below $10,000 per ton, leaving a comment.
If this is the case, it costs $4200 to produce and $5000 to refine,
Wouldn't miners and refining companies no longer produce lithium, or companies that are currently trying to mine and refine lithium could stop doing business?
Will that cause a bigger bottleneck in the future, unlike the data presented, and will lithium prices explode further?
No, because 90-95% of the lithium is sold through contracts. It just means less money for investment as you hinted to...creating another upswing in the future. And so the great cycle continues, lol. Feast and famine.
…making the impossible merely late.
Does this factor in improving battery efficiency? I'm not sure how that works, but I'm thinking if future batteries can get double the energy density with the same lithium then to reach those targets we'd need half the lithium. I'm just pondering, I don't know if that's how it works.
Energy density improvements happen by removing dead weight, not by increasing the power of the ions. The only way to do that is by incresing voltage...so we're actually seeing the opposite with greater usage of LFP
Incredible work. But:
Bolivia has the highest Lithium reserves in the world (21 million MT) and isn’t on your list.
And Afghanistan also has 1-3 million MT. (Estimated)
Looks like you didn't really listen to what I said
Battery recycling is gonna be huge
I had two glasses of wine before watching…need to shut it down and come back later 😂
😂
Nice Exxon Greenwashing commercial before the video .
lol! I have been targeted
Do you think that Tesla might be funding EnergyX out of Texas as a way to get into Lithium Extraction?
Tesla has in house processes they've developed
Once everything has electrified, 95% of material for new batteries will come from recycling, not mining. So that should put some pressure on mining companies to get all the lithium extracted before that happens, otherwise they'll lose out. Not sue ehow long that will take. Maybe 30 years or less?
The benchmark minerals forecast gives a good indication - it shows recycled material.
I fully expect Tesla to take every step they can to protect their supply chain. They have already started construction of their first lithium refinery. It won't be the last. They are also looking into better methods of lithium extraction that they will employ in their own mines. Elon and his team have already planned out what they need to be producing 20 million new vehicles per year by 2030. They are not going to allow lack of development of resources by existing concerns to limit their growth.
Notably, no counter arguments to what's in the video.
It's clear you didn't watch it, but thanks for the comment anyways, it helps the channel
@thelimitingfactor No counter arguments intended. Your content is top notch. On the rare occasions when I believed that I had found an error in your information, I was mistaken.
After watching the whole video, your position is as good as it gets given the sources you used. I do believe, however, that Tesla isn't telling us everything.
I very much hope to be wrong. Thanks for the follow up comment!
Great video, as always: I do like data.
I may have missed mention of more efficient use of lithium in cells to increase energy density (eg use of silicon particles), else please consider including this in a follow-up. A 20% increase should overcome the 2030 shortfall.
It doesn't matter how much silicon you put in the battery, etc, lithium ion still provide the same amount of energy.
What you're doing when you increase the energy density is removing dead weight.
So no, it won't have any impact.
In fact, with more LFP batteries being used that have a lower voltage, that might actually reduce the efficiency of lithium usage.
Thank you for your reply@@thelimitingfactor . I had not thought about LFP having lower efficiency of lithium use than nickel based cells.
My assumption (based on my limited understanding of electrochemistry) is that lithium cannot be fully depleted from the electrodes to avoid ruining the chemistry (eg. by copper and/or aluminium ions from the electrode foils getting involved if over-charged or over-discharged), so higher energy density with additional lithium (and possibly silicon particles to store it in the anode) may allow a higher percentage of the lithium to be exchanged between electrodes and thereby increase the efficiency of lithium usage (similarly for slower discharge cells that have less electrode area but thicker electrode layers).
As an interested subscriber there is a lot more that I would like help to understand. I haven't seen a good quantitative description of the process of electrode formation: charging and discharging rates and voltages over what times at what temperatures while monitoring what, and what tests are actually done to determine the optimum amount of "formation" (you included a mostly qualitative description of the passivation layer in a video, but that makes me want more detailed quantitative data). Also, the processes at over-charging and over-discharging that lead to reduced life, failure modes etc would justify some cell failure videos (great to watch things blowing up unless you risk being burnt or breathing in toxic fumes).
good work, I am interested in starting to research some mining companies, have you any suggestions?
About Musk's statement that the real money is to be made in refining. While you mentioned it late on I think you give too little credit to the fact that Musk is often throwing out a half formed opinion. And dangerously he sticks to it for too long.
Thanks!
Oh boy, where to start. You really have to start from your investing strategy rather than which companies to invest in. As far was a list of companies...
RK (Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper) publish a list of companies they're tracking on twitter regularly. Mostly Howard that does that. It's pretty huge now.
33:05 - This is partial analysis - yes the estimate is 1/3rd of the estimated economically mineable reserves worldwide (land based) but we have already discovered and mapped that 1/3rd, i.e. we already know where the economically minable land based lithium reserves are already to convert all ICE vehicles to BEVs, the bottleneck is how fast we can turn it into useful material.
Germany 140k tonnes, Czech republic also 140k tonnes
All countries were covered if you were paying attention
Tesla secured rights to mine Its own lithium in Nevada back in 2020. they may well be working on a deal with a partner mining compay.
No, that fell through.
@@thelimitingfactor The deal with Cypress Development Corp fell through but Tesla still hold the righs to mine .
You forget USA 🇺🇸 has massive supply of lithium and have a startup that produces a yield of 90%
Included
Ye of little faith
India Discovers 5.9 Million Tonnes Lithium Reserve in J&K state
And there's billions of tons of lithium in the ocean.
It looks like you ignored what I said in the video.
There's resources, and then there's extraction
As someone licking wounds from remaining heavily invested in lithium over the last year, I am reluctantly going to point out the simplest and most elegant way to close the equation between supply and demand is to drop the explicit boundary condition that Tesla is going to grow at 50% per year through 2030. That is too much of a bull assumption for me to base my personal finances on.
A totally fair way to view it! 🤜🤛
As a bullish long-term investor TSLA, I agree with you...well...at least for the automotive market. Elon himself predicted in the 2020 earning call that Tesla would grow for 50% per year on average for the next years... he didn't say for the whole decade; otherwise that would translate in an annual vehicle sales volume in 2030 of 28.8 M units, significantly above his bullish enough prediction of 20M! This particular objective of Elon's align quite well with the present video's scenario of the growth going from exponential to linear past ca. 2027 ... and incidentally to what a proper S-curve actually looks like!
But that's for the automotive market only! My crystal ball is already challenged predicting what is likely to happen in the mature (although disputed) automotive market; it offers only a most foggy vision of what the growth is likely to be like for the new energy storage market, and is utterly failing for the not-yet existing humanoid robot one!
Better hurry, in time batteries will no longer use lithium. The question is how much time.
I covered that in the video.
Peak oil was correct in its own way. The amount of free flowing oil has followed the peak oil prediction. The extra oil came from a substitute: shale oil from fracking. Add in a substitute and the base assumption no longer holds.
So it wasn't correct in any way that matters to somebody buying gasoline
What about recycling batteries? Millions of EV Will be out of use between 6 and 10 years and May be easier to recicle batteries.
That was covered in the video and it was already included in the forecast.
I don't know why people bother commenting if they haven't watched the video.
Tesla has broken ground on their own lithium mine in USA already. Why are you saying they won't get into lithium mining. Isn't that a lie or mistake your telling us?
Nope, it's that you're misinformed.
They broke ground on a refinery, not a mine. They were planning to break ground on a mine, but then the deal fell through.
So no. Nothing, nada, zip
I think Elon is factoring in failure or EV slowdown from all the traditional automakers. They are already backpedaling or cancelling most of their EV roadmaps. So even if they don’t fail, they will not be consuming as much as battery supply previously thought.
It looks like you didn't watch the video.
One of the primary assumptions was that most of the other EV makers will fail and Tesla will scoop up their material supply.
Under capitalism supply can never exceed demand over the long term. Scarcity is built into the system.
🎯
Did you take into account that Tesla's lithium refinery is 30% lower cost to produce battery grade lithium? That would probably put the margins above lithium miners.
Look at the timing of Elon's comment and what he said
@@thelimitingfactor You mean Turner Caldwell? 5 months ago at the lithium refinery groundbreaking.
At 16:13 you say the Miner Margin is 91% - based on cost of $4,200/t vs Price of $49,000/t ---- how did you calculate that? Unless my understanding is wrong that is a margin of 1066%, not 91%. The price is more than 10x higher than the cost. Profit = $44,800/t vs Cost = $4,200/t ==> 44,8/4,2*100 = 1066.67%. But this underlines your point even more
Highly appreciate all the work you put into these videos, I have watched every single one so far and you keep impressing me with the depts of your analyses!
Sure thing man! I can only say to look at how margin is calcuated with a google search. I ran this by people in finance to verify.
Basically the price is set to 100% and the margin is the portion of that 100% that is profit.
@@thelimitingfactor yup you're right... 91% profit margin with a price of 49,000 means ~44,800 of profit. I was thinking of "markup" ([Profit/Cost]*100], not "margin" ([Profit/Revenue]*100)..... Crazy what a ~19%age point margin increase means in absolute $ for the miners!
Thanks, Jordan. You worked hard to produce this most informative video, and that's appreciated. 🫤🙂👍
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