New Jersey 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- Sea level rise is the biggest challenge facing New Jersey, by a long shot. And the worst part is, it won't take extreme scenarios to mess up this state in a big way. In this video we look at the most vulnerable areas first, then check out the other change factors projected for New Jersey- which are not too bad.
Here's a link to the NCA5:
nca2023.global...
To Dustin's Toolset:
public.tableau...
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer:
coast.noaa.gov...
Join our Discord:
/ discord
New Joysey
I have a lab in Newark which is studying these impacts and what can be done to mitigate them in the short term. Have you seen any experiments suggesting what may be able to be done to alter these rises even in the short term?
@valoriethechemist what's your definition for short vs long term?
@@AmericanResiliency good question, generally, I consider anything within the next century to be very short term as to climate shifts but let's suppose for this question it would be on scale of a single lifetime such that enough mitigation occurs to provide an extra year of use or more with implementation occurring in the next 5-15 years.
The current discussions in this area tend to center around redirecting the surges and dealing with the disruption that does occur as holding back the ocean much in this regard doesn't exactly play in our favor. Have been examining what localized conditions may offer some ability for people to continue utilizing some of their existing infrastructure. The large scale abandonment seems to not be something that's accepted by many at this point and such transition periods being extended in almost any way this should be examined. Gaining an extra years use of infrastructure such as airports and seaports (across the street from where my lab sits) may aid many in being able to adapt. And regardless of whether this area can. Understanding what's occurring in this location may aid other areas. So I'm curious to see what may be able to aid these critical areas and have seen more in the context of more infrastructure and not much in terms of local atmospheric chemistry or environmental biodiversity conditions which may have impacts. Many coastlines are considering levees for example but I'm exploring alternatives and wonder what you may have come across.
So my questions in this sort of context. Something which can be done essentially immediately and would allow for additional years of use this century. Complex question as I appreciate the rate at which we're changing and will experience changes presents a variety of challenges and limiting factors. Thanks for your response!
@@valoriethechemist are you familiar with the DOD's green coastlines/ living coastlines programs? I think these are very much in that wheelhouse- short term extension for infrastructure, without major negative environmental impacts or cleanup needs.
Large scale retreat (let's try to work towards that rather than abandonment, for all our sakes) certainly seems to me the only long-term solution in these higher end rise scenarios.
@@AmericanResiliency Interesting, not exactly familiar with them but heard there's efforts. Mostly looking at how to stabilize the retreat. But I suppose the real issue here is just how fast it eventually occurs. Tides and storm surges are one thing but it's also possible that there's a more rapid and devastating scale scenario. Are there particular aspects you would want to examine more closely in these projects? Which would you say are most impactful thus far?
@@valoriethechemist I suggest you look for the results of the FY20-22 Annapolis living shorelines project. Here's a general resource to point you towards other DOD information. www.sustainability.gov/pdfs/dod-2021-cap.pdf
I know that this channel is called "American" Resiliency but would you ever consider covering the climate outlook of Canadian provinces? I am Canadian personally and this channel has helped me tremendously in my understanding of climate change and I would love to see this type of content applied to Canada too as I have a hard time finding information on what the future might be for us. Either way, thank you for making these videos, they are extremely helpful!
@hahahahajade I want to do more international content in the future- once I finish this round of the 50 states project, we are not getting another NCA update until 2028 at least, so I will feel like I have accomplished one goal & be ready to explore other information.
I'm glad my general climate content has been useful to your understanding, I appreciate hearing that. After I finish the 50 states project I hope to keep making global/general pieces like that about twice a month, and also focus on two other types of projections: more international content, and more content focused on landscape change in North America. We have a number of volunteers currently working on the landscape change project, I think it is going to be really cool! And landscapes don't care about national boundaries- much of the work we are doing on this project straddles the US/Canada border. We're using the Level II Ecoregions map as our base- if you haven't seen it it's kinda cool, it's at this website:
www.epa.gov/eco-research/ecoregions-north-america
I am listening to this from the Jersey shore, where it is 15 degrees cooler than my home in Pennsylvania, and with a breeze to boot. So the building, and the prices, in this town continue to rise.
@florenceannroberts1066 it's totally beautiful in New Jersey- the beaches and landscapes of coastal New Jersey are great! Many of these areas facing serious risk from sea level rise, why abandon them? Enjoy them, clean up industrial stuff. I just wouldn't want to be left holding the bag on property- home in Pennsylvania sounds like a solid choice to me.
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you. I totally agree! But I have had a little place at the Jersey shore for decades, and it is hard to part with it. Financially, it would make sense to sell, since the value of shore property has outpaced everything else... up till now! That surely will not last.
A curiosity this year has been the increased disparity between temperatures at the beach and those at my Pennsylvania home. Traditionally, they have run 8-10 degrees cooler, but this year it has been 12-20 degrees cooler. During this past week's heat wave along the east coast, we were quite comfortable. I actually had to move inside one evening when it got too cool. I have read that the gulf stream may be shifting a bit more east along the Jersey coast (possibly as a consequence of the AMOC slowing down), and I am wondering if that is the reason for the cooler temps. My neighbor reports that she did not need to turn on her AC until July 7 this year. Very unusual!
@@florenceannroberts1066 it's interesting to hear about that change- I am hearing many people say they believe Gulf Stream weirdness to be currently impacting the Northeast, from Maine to the Finger Lakes region of New York.
Parting with a place like that would be so hard! You've gotta do what feels right to you- my perspective, you've probably got at least a couple more summers before any drop in value. These areas are so desirable, people will want to be there until they aren't there.
Luckily for the Jersey folks, upstate New York and Pennsylvania have tons of land and a low population density
Anyone with their eye on the ball now could find a great place within the region. The outlooks for upstate New York and Pennsylvania are among the best in the nation.
@@AmericanResiliency time to revitalize the rust belt!
As much as many people don't want to hear it, the barrier islands all along the US east coast are incredibly vulnerable to sea level rise, and at 10ft they cannot support cities.
The two main strategies for them i know of would either be to abandon/rewild them until the sea inevitably claims them. Or use them as the foundation of a very big and expensive sea wall.
And obviously this is very unfortunate as a ton of people live there, and these cities are important to our economy.
@jasonreed7522 it's the sad truth. If we're really looking at 10, we need to retreat and think about what we can do to clean up. The estuaries of the east coast used to be incredibly rich sources of food, incredibly rich in biodiversity. If this is the path we're looking at, we could make a path forward. I think it's a better but way harder future if we choose to fight the sea. I hope we will have the moral courage to make this big choice against the economy, but I am not sure that we do.
Alright New Jersey, time to get weird(er)!
Lot of potential to go full on weird boat person in this New Jersey outlook
The Sopranos, but as boat people. Someone pitch this to HBO please. 10/10 would watch 🙌
@@Corrie-fd9ww omg this is genius. Sign me up!
Dude. If you ever wanna shop this idea, sit and spitball script ideas?! Holy crap n crap. Like- how would the mafia respond to ecological collapse?! Oh snap. The ideas….