Brace Up: Summer 24 Seasonal Outlook
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ค. 2024
- I sure wish things looked less challenging for this summer, but they don't. This is an important window for building resilience- take a look at projected conditions with a focus on potential no-power wet bulb conditions, as well as wildfire risk signs lighting up for Idaho. The actions we take now matter.
My heart is with Houston and those other communities in Texas and Louisiana impacted by the terrible derecho on the 16th. I talk a bit about derechos in this video- many of us haven't yet experienced one. They're worth thinking about, and really highlight the importance of power resilience.
NOAA seasonal outlook:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...
Drought monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Reasonable prep video:
• Thinking about 2024: W...
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That derecho was wild. The sky went black as night. These seasonal forecasts are great, but they don't really seem to capture the chance of seeing one of these outlier events that global warming is fueling.Those feel more like a climate casino. Either way, resilience is key.
@improperhoustonian climate casino is right. Derecho experiences are worth talking about, they're so rare up til now. 2020 was my first and it was terrifying. Like being in an unexpected hurricane for 35 minutes.
Hope your neighborhood is recovering okay, and wishing you all the best.
Well done informative and insightful. Thank you. Food for thought for sure but more for action!
@EnvironmentalCoffeehouse thank you! Every step adds up!
Thank you for being a level-headed source.
What a radiant smile at the end! 🤩🥰🥳
@christinearmington gotta be able to enjoy life!
I'm starting to brace up my wooden fences and pruning & pollarding the trees to resist the higher straight line winds. I also have half gallon jars of fermented garden food in the fridge and if the power goes out the food will still be good for a month or more. Plus the garden is designed to produce throughout the growing season, too much food I can't eat it all.
Fast aware talk.
@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner I'm interested in your go-tos for fermented food- important skillset!
@@AmericanResiliency Its described as lacto fermenting. I do have an old video up recording an experienced lady explaining the process, but there are many more. My contribution has been to experiment with keeping it in the fridge after 3-4 weeks of working at room temperatures, the cold to slow the process down and make it last. Right now I have some almost two years old.
Now that you have me thinking I ought to take out a jar and leave it out at room temperature to find out how long it will last.
Oh, the tyranny of abundance! All of a sudden the harvest explodes and we are left scrambling for ways to preserve it all!
@@CS-ms2ip lol!
appreciate the effort youre making. good vid.
Thanks!
Thanks for your infomed guidance for being prepared with this summer season. I live down in southern New Mexico which saw a record 34 consecutive days over 100 last summer. That was TWICE the previous record. And the bright red zone suts right over New Mexico up through the 4 corners area. That looks like a good chance of a repeat of last year. And fire season is always on our minds here too. Don't be scared, be prepared!!
@michaeldeierhoi4096 southern New Mexico has such a challenging outlook and this does look like a difficult year. Wishing you all the best.
I'm gonna steal that phrase and use it - don't be scared, be prepared!
Your part of the world does look scary, though. Maybe be prepared to leave?
@@CS-ms2ip Where I live is better than what I have seen in most of the country. High heat and forest fires, but no hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes or floods. Every part of the world has issues some of which are manmade. It all depends on what we are willing to live with.
Thank you so much for your reasonable and upbeat videos.
Had a derecho in rochelle dekalb 2008 knocked down my corn crib and machine shed! Insurance paid for a new polebarn
@harrybaulz666 omg I can barely type your username- hah! Good they paid out- it's really concerning to see how many places are cancelling policies in advance of this summer.
I thank you so very much for sharing links to important information sources and explaining how to interpret them. So many others do not -
again, thank you!
You are welcome! Access to information is a bigger and bigger problem in this time of AI, I'm glad to do what I can.
This is very useful!!! Thanks for this channel! ❤
@sancilice you're welcome, glad it helps!
I remember the Derecho that hit Maryland in 2012 and I hope to not have to go through another one anytime soon.
@jj6148 one was more than enough for me, too. They are scary
That 2020 derecho thundered thru the UP too
I was scared
But no real damage
Yooper!
@user-ViralVid glad it wore itself out a little before it got to you all!
Thank you for this video! Oregons wildfires have been getting bigger and coming closer to some of my most beloved places. I grew up in a small town in the hills around Mt Hood. As a teen, the fires made air quality terrible at certain times. As an adult, my family who still lived there had to evacuate a few years ago, twice. Once from the small town and then again from where they evacuated to. Luckily, my small town didn't burn down but I know its only a matter of time if we don't take action. Have a plan! Know multiple ways to leave your area. Talk to neighbors about how you can work together to minimize the impact. Not only was there a fire that almost burnt down my town, there was misinformation running rampant about how it was antifa that started them. An absolutely egregious lie used to scare and manipulate people. Make sure to ask questions, how did they get this news? Who might be the most accurate resource to look into? We can do this! Keep up being awesome, everyone who is trying to survive. No matter what, I'll have your back.
We can do it and keeping lines of information clear & high quality is such an important aspect of resilience at every level. On the line of having multiple ways to leave your area- folks, if you're in an area with evac potential, get yourselves some physical maps, some quality paper maps. It's good to have a physical copy of the back roads.
Ironically the Idaho panhandle is where the far right American Taliban like to call home, and who are most likely not to believe in such things as the real and important dangers we face such as Human Induced Climate Change (HICC) 🧌🤷
I hear there are a lot of people in that area who would see me and my family with hate. But I am sure there are also decent people, and I would rather give any family a warning to save them from wildfire. If they hated me or not, there's no family that doesn't deserve a warning for such a strong, clear fire signal.
@@AmericanResiliency👍😉
Algo boost!
No internet and want communication???? AMATEUR RADIO IS THE ANSWER
@larry785 oh you are singing the right song there. Always worth having a basic crank radio to search for heros like this.
I'm just starting to study for my test.
I don't like even thinking about this possibility but with the way things are going, a Hurricane in the Gulf, could merge with one on the other side of Florida 😢
@koicaine1230 uggghh I do not heart this because I like it, but because inland and reversing type hurricane tracks are a real risk it's worth bringing up. Some of the climate models show that more of them are going to want to go over Florida and mess up Georgia and the Carolinas from an inland angle.
@@AmericanResiliency I get it ❤️ I am not looking forward to this but I'm trying to prepare for it because the odds are not in our favor. I don't expect the plants in the garden to survive even though they are doing good now. Currently I'm pricing storm resistant green houses, we might build one but it's definitely going to happen.
@koicaine1230 we gotta hope for the best and to what we can. We just put up some cattle panel, I'm planning to put together a hail & shade net to go over it.
Yikes! that never even occurred to me. Sometimes the comments are just as valuable as the video.
@@CS-ms2ip Thank you, and sorry 😆 I know that everyone watching AR's videos are exponentially more prepared for the future than even the traditional prepper crowd ❤️
Well, I hope it's not another summer of smoke in the city in the 90's. The hottest Portland has ever gotten, if memory serves, was also during a wildfire so the city was in the 100-110f range with a sickly orange haze. Just awful. Spiritual practice has done wonders for resilience for me. I can handle panic much better because of my meditation training.
@roxyamused the inside of resilience is so important- as conditions become more difficult, it takes strength and practice to maintain our values. Avoiding panic, being able to remain aware of other's needs, and practice compassion- I agree with you and see my spiritual practice as personally critical to resilience.
First!
Lol 🎉 congrats! 🎉
Because we have a risk of powerful earthquakes in Western Washington, I keep 14 gallons of water in storage containers in the house and another 50 gallons in my travel trailer in the yard plus another 25 gallons on the boat. The boat and travel trailer have solar and batteries and propane. I also have some food which is stable for 30 years.
We recently had a shooting that closed down the freeway for 8 hours and it was another chance for me to remind people that they should have water, snacks and blankets in their cars. Many of them didn’t and the geography of this area limits the number of roads to get around an issue, and we have a lot of bridges.
This year we only got 50-60% of snow across Washington and Idaho and Western Montana and Canada, so fires are expected. There was a big fire in 1910 that burned across western Montana and northern Idaho where many people died because they couldn’t escape it. Some people escaped on a train which is now a bike trail.
Many of the fires burning now in BC spent the winter underground in peat. That also happens in Montana and Wyoming in coal seams until it reaches some vegetation and comes back above ground. I expect it will be a smoky summer for many people
@kenmcclow8963 I have been reading about those fires smoldering in the peat with dread. Seems likely a smoky summer ahead to be sure.
Your points about water storage and having emergency supplies in the vehicle are wise.
Landsman!
@franstein9277 my husband runs an independent local minyan - Hawkeye Minyan. Community here in Eastern Iowa is nice- lot of great people
No, Marry Me! 😍🐸🦖🎊
@MichaelGilboa I already did you knucklehead!
It seems like things are heating up quicker than your previous forecasts had predicted no?
@robertdhanda7604 the earth systems readings from 2023 are a significant departure from consensus models. There are a growing number of climate scientists who are very concerned. When I started this project, I tried to be very straight-up that what I was doing was translating the NCA4. As I try to interpret the information coming in, I no longer think that sort of straightforward translation work is the most appropriate way to communicate, especially because the NCA5 was published before there was a consensus on the degree of the shift in earth's climate systems. We should not expect an update until 2028- we've gotta do the best we can.
Seems worst case scenario’s have to be considered. Very sad.
@tombolin7168 unfortunately I think that is the case. It may end up more than we can bear, but it's better to do what we can. Sometimes it is worth weeping but I have to get the garden in, too.
@@AmericanResiliency I planted a little over a week ago plus letting the blackberries spread.
Yay, another miserable summer for southeast Arizona, how delightful. 😒
@cheriesomerville7516 very difficult long term outlook for that region, unfortunately. Many beautiful places there.
Marry Me!❤🎉
@harrybaulz666 lol I'm flattered but trust me I'm a lot of trouble. Truly fortunate to be coming up on ten years with my husband, he's figured out how to put up with me.
Really hope you’re doing okay I saw some of the damages in Iowa. Stay strong and resilient. 🫶
@KRD2001 thanks for checking in- we are just fine! We live in a little hilly area- tornadoes are gonna hit where they want, but the local landscape here is on the protective side.