Wisconsin 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2024
- Wisconsin is looking about as good as it gets in the projections for 2C. Check it out, there's good info on where to expect challenges like extreme storms and wildfire, and where I think Wisconsin's got the potential for healthy growth and generational opportunity. I'm calling it- Wisconsin, your 2C outlook is the best in the Midwest.
Here's a link to the NCA5
nca2023.global...
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Great video -- thanks for the shout-out!. I forwarded this to several local people -- I'm sure we will use it this spring.
@jaycoldwell awesome! Please let people know I'm always happy to answer questions
You had me at marked safe from tech bros 😂
Lol it's the most important resilience factor!!
How does Ashland fare? That area is gorgeous and wondering about the fire risk.
The fire risk is higher than I'd like up there, Ashland's up over the lip of the higher change band. I spoke with some conservation folks from up there who shared confirming observations.
A friend of mine is an indigenous lady, her family is all around that general area. We were talking about how upsetting it is up in that higher change band to feel the change on the ground and feel the fires are likely to come. Talking it through helped us realize that, even though there is a lot of reason to grieve, the projected conditions after the landscape transition are still very desirable. People who feel strongly attached there, it's worth remembering there is a future after the fires, and the land will transition less painfully with devoted work on the ground.
Subscribed, even though my sights are set on da U.P.
@christinearmington thanks!
Any chance of a video for Illinois?
Let's do it. I just got Virginia ready to go so the third slot is open. VA coming up this Thursday, then AL, CO, and next, IL
@@AmericanResiliency excellent news, thank you
Does this account for AMOC disruption?
@paulvanbrakel992 this is a very important question.
If/when AMOC collapses, we don't have the same high-consensus modeling resources as I use in this video, which is based on the NCA5. But I recently reviewed a high-quality paper that shows pretty good global modeling in this video:
th-cam.com/video/PdbOXyBurFo/w-d-xo.html
This paper makes it look likely that local conditions in Wisconsin could be potentially stabilized by AMOC collapse. In terms of temperature and precipitation, you might see less change.
But it's important to remember, if AMOC tips, the current AMOC modeling is going to be interacting with the warming effects of what is already in Earth's atmosphere. The information in the video above is useful, but we have not yet found a high-quality source that integrates the models. The integration would need to be a dynamic integration to be effective- would need to incorporate a lot of specific information about where we were in the warming pathway when AMOC went down.
In short, if AMOC tips, things will get weird. Regardless.
Eastern Washington and a fairly large part of the northern Midwest are the best areas in the US with two-model stability.
@AmericanResiliency thanks I saw some graphics that Leon Simons posted on X re AMOC modelling hence the question. I am not site how integrated that was. Will try and find it and post the link.
Omg, the super serious face when talking about Austin! 😂 What happened in Austin (or do we not talk about Austin? lol)
The local housing market got WRECKED. Not so long ago Austin was small and weird and working-class. Pleasant hot climate, decent water situation. Then it got more and more popular and gentrified and the local aquifer is getting trashed and the local weirdos can't afford rent. This link is not an authoritative source, but it tells the story I've heard pretty well. unherd.com/2023/04/tech-bros-are-suffocating-weird-austin/