North Carolina 2050 Climate Forecast: 2023 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ต.ค. 2024
- The outlook for North Carolina is unusually dynamic, with highly localized challenges and opportunities. You're looking at relatively small seasonal changes in the mountains, but seriously intense storm increases. By the coast, you're projected to experience pretty high sea level rise, but you'll see that historic communities are looking pretty good, with way less direct damage to the Outer Banks than I expected. Overall, North Carolina's resilience potential is good. Understanding and preparing for our climate future will help North Carolina stay strong!
Here's a link to the NCA5
nca2023.global...
And to the sea level rise viewer- check out your address if you're in a coastal area
coast.noaa.gov...
N. Carolina is looking pretty good :), that rain increase /flash flood will be something to think about. Such a great state, very rich culture there. It was on my shortlist of “other places to live” awesome update!
@MrEborel thanks- I think it's interesting how distinctly the challenges are firming up for different parts of the state. There are a lot of resilient-minded people interested in those mountains. Also big federal climate investment (& labs) in that part of the state.
What kind of labs? Medical, science, climate? @@AmericanResiliency
@pendragon_cave1405 NOAA has a complex around there. Really lets you know it's been a spot of evident strength for some time! The knowledge that comes out of there has a good influence on the local community, my impression of the area is very favorable. Decent people, nice people.
@@AmericanResiliency that's pretty cool!
Eight months ago, during minutes 8-12, you really pegged what Hurricane Helene would do to Asheville and the mountains eight months later.
@Happyherm2468 there are some ways this was an understood risk but it's one thing to see the numbers and another to see the damage. Those extreme precipitation projections look to be giving us really important signals, more important than I first understood.
Thank you. This is so helpful. I feel like I’ve read that the NC coast was projected to suffer higher than normal sea level rise compared to other states due to the geology of the sea floor? Also, why did you use a 3’ increase projection for NC coast and a 10’ projection for Texas? Thanks again for these helpful videos. It’s just the kind of actionable information I was looking for
@TheKSBot great question- so, in the federal (& international) projections, there was a consensus understanding that we were probably heading towards 2C over preindustrial baseline by about 2050. When I started doing these videos, my goal was just to present the consensus understanding shown in the National Climate Assessment (NCA).
When the NCA5 came out, I had been monitoring the ocean anomalies that began in 2023... but it took until February of 24 for me to make the judgement call that, to me, the current earth systems temperature anomalies, which aren't well explained by the consensus models, indicate we are off that 2050 timeline.
That's when I started making "2C" outlooks instead of 2050 outlooks, and that's about the same time I started modeling for high-end sea level rise- also based on contemporary reports around ice behavior, particularly in Antarctica.
When I finish doing an update for every state, I think I need to go back and get the states I did before Feb 24 into shape. If you're doing some planning in North Carolina, I encourage you to go into the NOAA SLR tool in the video description and check out 10 foot rise scenarios.
Thanks for your patience with this novel of a comment- I hope it makes sense, and I am sorry for this change in the series- I try to explain it in the videos as I move forward in time, but it comes down to me being only human & trying to respond as best I can to the climate information continuing to come in... real weird.
September 2024:
Flooding as Hurricane Helene spins it's way across the US is a warning for us all. In this video you showed the potential for deluge flooding in North Carolina, and now we see what that looks like.
It's so tragic, but it also helps us understand what such flooding will look like in the topography around our towns. Also, Asheville has no power or water, and spotty cell phone coverage. What a wake up call for all of us!
@CS-ms2ip it is terrible to feel the power of what we should all see as the new normal. These rapidly intensifying hurricanes were predicted, and I have often shared modeling that shows more hurricanes are likely to come in over Big Bend and take inland tracks.
How terrible this storm has been for the people of Asheville- for the people in so many communities in the southeast. While we have identified flooding as a risk in southern Appalachia, the scale of this disaster is beyond experience. This is like the flooding in Vermont. Flooding that makes us understand in new ways what those regional risks mean.
We are starting to see the new flood zones. I in no way mean to minimize the suffering people are experiencing, or to say it is their fault in any way. I just want to report, I have begun hearing form people and organizations in the area. As you might imagine, most of the people I'm connected with are on the cautious to nuts side, buying and building with flooding in mind. It's a serious time but many resilience points are emerging. There's not a lot of ability to get aide in from the outside. Resilient people and organizations, people and groups who were prepared for disaster, are getting food and clean water to folks that need help. I hear the clean water issue is very serious. Many people neglect water storage. It's an important way to help yourself and your community.
The outer banks has the some of the highest dunes on the east coast which helps somewhat with the brunt of storms and sea level
North Carolina is looking sooo much better than much of the coast further north. Massachusetts is going to get hit hard. Nice to see a coastline with more hope of stability.
Even though the data calculates the sea level rise as it is relative to the land level, the storm surge and shifting of the sand will be a greater factor in what survives near the coastal areas. With larger hurricanes and larger storm surges more, then just the highway will disappear every time there's a hurricane.
WNC. Fire is the one thing that concerns me. Time to do mitigation around the house.
@christinearmington very important action to take! The California DNR has put in a lot of work to learn what makes homes burn and what keeps home safe, and to try and share these lessons. I am hopeful we can learn from the fires in the west to keep more people and habitat safe in the east.
Will there be a significant risk increase in regards to hurricanes?
It looks like more hurricanes may come over the Carolinas from out of the Gulf, but the consensus isn't great. In south Florida or big bend, I'd say yes the risk looks to be increasing- but North Carolina, it's harder to say. I review a strong resource on projected changes to hurricane tracks in this short video:
th-cam.com/video/POESQMuWsew/w-d-xo.html