Halfway through the video so far and I have many thoughts. First I just want to thank you again for this in depth outlook. You’re doing such amazing and important work and trying to make it as positive as possible. I truly believe with the warm areas forming off the Great Lakes, cold conservation in higher elevations New York has the chance to become one of the most diverse agricultural areas in the country. Regarding the changing landscapes I’m happy to see the Adirondacks holding off the summer heat, the forest here is the southern most variant of its type and insanely beautiful. I believe it’s called boreal transition forest. I think for New Yorkers invasive species will prove to be one of the most challenging parts.
@keithd4550 I totally agree with you- I think a video and links to resources on invasive control would be an important followup as we work on building resilience in the state. There won't be an update to these projections for at least 4 years, it's good to study them and to think of the next steps.
@@AmericanResiliencykudzu is definitely a plant that is taking over roadsides. The trees along1 87 seems to be covered in it especially around the Albany area. Just finished the second half of the video. Seeing New York City at 10 feet of rise, it’s a hard pill to swallow. The most populated metro in the country flooding like that it’s definitely the biggest and most financial challenge for our state. The hardest part will be finding new homes for these people I imagine many will leave the state but it’s hard to imagine upstate taking on hundreds of thousands or maybe even a million additional people.
Thanks for the location update on the kudzu- that's really important to know! And the whole NYC situation is so serious if we see 10+ feet of rise. It's not just NYC, either, Boston looks just as bad. I hope people in these vulnerable eastern coastal cities can take a serious look at the range of outcomes they might see in our lifetimes. This is a good time to get inland.
Thanks! You know, looking at Virginia sounds like a good way to recover from my current work on Arizona. Phoenix is looking at a 3 month extension of hot days, with a third of them over 105. March to December over 95, just crazy. At first look, VA appeared to have some pretty nice parts and be pretty stable from the NCA4. Should be a nicer one to do. And I feel like it's not cool to have Maryland up without Virginia for long lol. That'll probably be the order for the next 3 Thursdays- MN, AZ, VA.
Folks who care about chilling days need to get this heads up ASAP is what happens, so far as I'm concerned. This is not a low change outlook, but it is one where we can keep growing a lot of diverse crops. There are many fruit crops, including apple, where we could get future-facing varietals in if we get moving on the transition.
From the St. Lawrence valley and the things that most concern me are: 1. The loss of our harsh "Canadian" winters opens up the region to increasing insect populations and less cold tolerant invasives. Insect born illness is going to rise and those are some of the worst diseases. (Booming tick populations are already causing problems) 2. The lake shores are visibly warming in these projections indicating the lakes are going to stay warm, but our winters still have some cold to them, this is a recipe for lake effect snow and could indicate more lake effect boosted blizzards in the future. 3. That potential coastal flooding may not be a problem on the lakes, but it looks ungodly expensive for NYC and the whole state will definitely be paying for it. And something i have directly observed is that we used to not need air conditioning, summers always cooled off enough at night and during the day basements, swimming pools, and natural water bodies were enough. Now air conditioning is becoming increasingly necessary, which raises energy consumption. (Atleast in my area we are almost exclusively hydro power so it won't increase carbon emissions as much as NYC or Boston needing to burn more natural gas to run their air conditioners)
@jasonreed7522 thanks for this detailed comment- what you wrote about potential lake effect snow is an interesting connection to me, I did not put those pieces together. The increasing pest situation, the extraordinary financial impacts of sea level rise to the state as a whole, these are serious problems for sure! The detail that your area is on hydro power is also very appreciated- I need to get a better sense of the current renewables landscape. Areas with good hydro and wind capacity, we should highlight their additional resilience potential.
@nancye.4074 we're looking at putting that together in a few months yet- if you get us your contact info through the link in the video description, we will include you on all the communications as things firm up!
Hi Emily It’s Maryam from the PNW, thank you for the work you do to help everyone to be aware of future changes. Is there anywhere in the country that won’t lose too many of its cold days and nights and that won’t gain too many hotter days?
Maryam, you email me and I'm gonna help you figure out what you're looking for. I know all the good places and I can help you find the closest to what you want. I don't charge a lot and you'll know as best we can know. ar@americanresiliency.org- fair warning, I might not get back to you until Tuesday.
Great video. I think you said that southern New York winters in the middle of this century would be like northern South Carolina winters today. At least I believe that's what I heard and I apologize if I misheard. Does that mean places like NYC won't experience snow in the winter? Despite being in the mid south, I've never been to South Carolina. I honestly don't know what winters are even like in South Carolina, but I imagine their winters to be warm with highs in the 60s from December to March. I also plan on moving to NYC sometime in the next ten years when I'm still fairly young.
@ryant6806 New York City is moving into a totally different climate from the historical norm- a huge shift for a really major population center. @ethanorazietti2203 is right to point out that this is already happening. 20 years ago it was very normal for it to snow in New York. Even 10 years ago, common. But it is already stopping.
@ethanorazietti2203 I googled this because I totally don't know anything about palms, and I'm sharing this link because it answers your question well and the website name strikes me as very cute! www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/66287-new-to-palms-experimenting-in-zone-8b9b/
@@AmericanResiliency thank you, looks like it may be possible but not ideal. i think even talking about the possibility of palms in a city like nyc speaks to how much things have changed
Thank you for the fearless speaking of the future. Yours is a rare voice -- referencing science to deliver common sense. More please.
@rapauli thank you- I'm getting Minnesota ready to go for next week.
Halfway through the video so far and I have many thoughts. First I just want to thank you again for this in depth outlook. You’re doing such amazing and important work and trying to make it as positive as possible. I truly believe with the warm areas forming off the Great Lakes, cold conservation in higher elevations New York has the chance to become one of the most diverse agricultural areas in the country. Regarding the changing landscapes I’m happy to see the Adirondacks holding off the summer heat, the forest here is the southern most variant of its type and insanely beautiful. I believe it’s called boreal transition forest. I think for New Yorkers invasive species will prove to be one of the most challenging parts.
@keithd4550 I totally agree with you- I think a video and links to resources on invasive control would be an important followup as we work on building resilience in the state. There won't be an update to these projections for at least 4 years, it's good to study them and to think of the next steps.
@@AmericanResiliencykudzu is definitely a plant that is taking over roadsides. The trees along1 87 seems to be covered in it especially around the Albany area. Just finished the second half of the video. Seeing New York City at 10 feet of rise, it’s a hard pill to swallow. The most populated metro in the country flooding like that it’s definitely the biggest and most financial challenge for our state. The hardest part will be finding new homes for these people I imagine many will leave the state but it’s hard to imagine upstate taking on hundreds of thousands or maybe even a million additional people.
Thanks for the location update on the kudzu- that's really important to know! And the whole NYC situation is so serious if we see 10+ feet of rise. It's not just NYC, either, Boston looks just as bad. I hope people in these vulnerable eastern coastal cities can take a serious look at the range of outcomes they might see in our lifetimes. This is a good time to get inland.
Looking forward to what you think about New Jersey 😄
@gabe4449 I'm gonna give you guys a few weeks, see if you have any more big earthquakes first!!
Great video!
Looking forward to a video covering VA :)
Thanks! You know, looking at Virginia sounds like a good way to recover from my current work on Arizona. Phoenix is looking at a 3 month extension of hot days, with a third of them over 105. March to December over 95, just crazy.
At first look, VA appeared to have some pretty nice parts and be pretty stable from the NCA4. Should be a nicer one to do. And I feel like it's not cool to have Maryland up without Virginia for long lol.
That'll probably be the order for the next 3 Thursdays- MN, AZ, VA.
Niagara County/north west New York is a major apple producer. What happens when winter goes away.
Folks who care about chilling days need to get this heads up ASAP is what happens, so far as I'm concerned. This is not a low change outlook, but it is one where we can keep growing a lot of diverse crops. There are many fruit crops, including apple, where we could get future-facing varietals in if we get moving on the transition.
From the St. Lawrence valley and the things that most concern me are:
1. The loss of our harsh "Canadian" winters opens up the region to increasing insect populations and less cold tolerant invasives. Insect born illness is going to rise and those are some of the worst diseases. (Booming tick populations are already causing problems)
2. The lake shores are visibly warming in these projections indicating the lakes are going to stay warm, but our winters still have some cold to them, this is a recipe for lake effect snow and could indicate more lake effect boosted blizzards in the future.
3. That potential coastal flooding may not be a problem on the lakes, but it looks ungodly expensive for NYC and the whole state will definitely be paying for it.
And something i have directly observed is that we used to not need air conditioning, summers always cooled off enough at night and during the day basements, swimming pools, and natural water bodies were enough. Now air conditioning is becoming increasingly necessary, which raises energy consumption. (Atleast in my area we are almost exclusively hydro power so it won't increase carbon emissions as much as NYC or Boston needing to burn more natural gas to run their air conditioners)
@jasonreed7522 thanks for this detailed comment- what you wrote about potential lake effect snow is an interesting connection to me, I did not put those pieces together. The increasing pest situation, the extraordinary financial impacts of sea level rise to the state as a whole, these are serious problems for sure!
The detail that your area is on hydro power is also very appreciated- I need to get a better sense of the current renewables landscape. Areas with good hydro and wind capacity, we should highlight their additional resilience potential.
Interested in the NYS meetup if it hasn’t happened already.
@nancye.4074 we're looking at putting that together in a few months yet- if you get us your contact info through the link in the video description, we will include you on all the communications as things firm up!
Hi Emily
It’s Maryam from the PNW, thank you for the work you do to help everyone to be aware of future changes. Is there anywhere in the country that won’t lose too many of its cold days and nights and that won’t gain too many hotter days?
Maryam, you email me and I'm gonna help you figure out what you're looking for. I know all the good places and I can help you find the closest to what you want. I don't charge a lot and you'll know as best we can know. ar@americanresiliency.org- fair warning, I might not get back to you until Tuesday.
Ok thank you I will do that
Great video. I think you said that southern New York winters in the middle of this century would be like northern South Carolina winters today. At least I believe that's what I heard and I apologize if I misheard. Does that mean places like NYC won't experience snow in the winter? Despite being in the mid south, I've never been to South Carolina. I honestly don't know what winters are even like in South Carolina, but I imagine their winters to be warm with highs in the 60s from December to March. I also plan on moving to NYC sometime in the next ten years when I'm still fairly young.
it already rarely snows in nyc anymore, so i would expect essentially snowless winters by mid century
@@ethanorazietti2203 I honestly did not know that.
@ryant6806 New York City is moving into a totally different climate from the historical norm- a huge shift for a really major population center. @ethanorazietti2203 is right to point out that this is already happening. 20 years ago it was very normal for it to snow in New York. Even 10 years ago, common. But it is already stopping.
…sneaks in quietly 👁️👄👁️and snatches the share link…
Thank you! Any new folks, please feel free to ask any questions, I'll always try my best to answer!
any chance in NYC we could see palm species at 8b?
@ethanorazietti2203 I googled this because I totally don't know anything about palms, and I'm sharing this link because it answers your question well and the website name strikes me as very cute!
www.palmtalk.org/forum/topic/66287-new-to-palms-experimenting-in-zone-8b9b/
@@AmericanResiliency thank you, looks like it may be possible but not ideal. i think even talking about the possibility of palms in a city like nyc speaks to how much things have changed
Truth there