Will Tesla’s Optimus DESTROY Bot Competition!?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มี.ค. 2024
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    UTTER DOMINATION: Tesla's Humanoid Robots
    Tesla’s Optimus Will Utterly DOMINATE Humanoid Robotics
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ความคิดเห็น • 174

  • @DrKnowitallKnows
    @DrKnowitallKnows  หลายเดือนก่อน +5

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    • @bobmclaughlin4744
      @bobmclaughlin4744 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Disagree. Study the technology.

  • @davidgutting4317
    @davidgutting4317 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    The stock performance chart you put together was epic. That chart was by far the most informative example of the rule 90% of all new disruptive companies fail and it’s essential to not only verify that the goals are achievable but also the there is enough grit in the founders to drag it to production without giving up or running away with all the funds.

  • @jonmichaelgalindo
    @jonmichaelgalindo หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    There is no competition for general labor. Any robot whose work output value exceeds its costs can be produced at profit with no market cap.

  • @slowercuber7767
    @slowercuber7767 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I think your analogy to wider nascent car industry is not just more relevant, but likely more predictive. Thank you for sharing.

  • @shuriken4852
    @shuriken4852 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    I do not disagree that there will be many bots companies filling niche markets, but to me what AJ is saying is that there will only be one dominant general purpose robotics company and that it will be Tesla. Tesla has 20 years of experience mass producing batteries and electronics, they have a mature real world AI with FSD, they have decades of robotics expertise by buying Grohmann and they are the best mass manufacturers on the planet, so I fail to see who will be able to compete with that in a meaningful way.

  • @Julian-1111
    @Julian-1111 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Great analysis, I agree, also the Dog/Cat bot would be a great companion.
    I still like the idea of a ChimpBot for tree trimming, Roofing, etc. using Four Hands.
    Cheers from San Diego

  • @davidhawkins7138
    @davidhawkins7138 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    There are so many potential niches that small startups will find markets. Some will get profitable and grow, so your estimate of 5 or so survivors makes sense to me. Picking the winners is a crap shoot, so AJ's table makes sense too.

  • @fredhearty1762
    @fredhearty1762 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Humanoid bots are much more a software product (like FSD) than a hardware one (like century-old ICE cars or even EVs). As such, they have an opportunity to go the smart phone development route... one operating system predominates and several other low cost units share rest of market. Like humans, it's the brain that differentiates.

  • @tom19482001
    @tom19482001 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you for this outstanding video. Every word was significant and illuminating.

  • @guillaumel9891
    @guillaumel9891 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Just as with FSD, the bot fleet size will be a huge advantage for NN training. Whoever can make the most bots at the lowest cost and can deploy them in the real world will have the biggest training advantage and the others will be left in the dust.

  • @alfredogonzalez1280
    @alfredogonzalez1280 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Tesla's internal management system is a huge advantage as it allows rapid improvements while in production. The robotics operation benefits from that and from the highly innovative culture.

  • @coolnameproductions2180
    @coolnameproductions2180 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Bot animals is an interesting idea. Lots of potential useful applications in agriculture, security, search & rescue etc. Highway litter pickers? Doesn't matter too much if your octopus bot litter picker gets run over.

    • @davidelliott5843
      @davidelliott5843 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I matters to my car if a litter bot walks under its wheels.

  • @skydivekrazy76
    @skydivekrazy76 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Agreed

  • @darwinboor1300
    @darwinboor1300 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks John,
    The post initial premise was wrong. BYD.
    The post does not take into account the long term investment value of: 1) first to market, 2) special function markets, 3) first to mobile AGI (not guaranteed to be Tesla), 4) Lower cost of production (eg less than humanoid form with nearly equal function), and 5) never Tesla markets. You and Herbert sugessted a few of these.

  • @SwedeInCPH
    @SwedeInCPH หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    TH-camr kindergarten is amazing: Now we have to endure someone reading goodnight stories for us, instead of reading ourselves.

  • @KanedaSyndrome
    @KanedaSyndrome หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I agree more with AJ.

  • @garycarson3128
    @garycarson3128 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I agree with you John. The other issue is that the high margins on humanoid Bots as with Robotaxis services with such a huge demand allows manufacturers of Bots and Robtaxis can exist and be successful with lower margins than a company like Tesla, due to their lack of manufacturing efficiency. However, in the longer run, as the market matures and competition increases, they would have that “honeymoon” period to increase manufacturing efficiency and streamline their supply chains to become more competitive and profitable.

  • @bluetoad2668
    @bluetoad2668 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Whichever bot maker can get to scale and therefore low price the fastest will dominate and the others will fall away because they won't be able to compete. A competitor will need a very compelling USP to ask a higher price. These bots are by definition multi-purpose and able to work anywhere a human can (not do everything a human can of course).

  • @TomLoveman
    @TomLoveman หลายเดือนก่อน

    Well reasoned. There are also regulatory hurdles, labor lawsuits, and more to come as robots take more and more jobs from humans. That could impact the financial equation. But the use cases are insane - for example, what if a person owned a robot to do household duties and then rented it out for labor when it wasn't being used? (Like a personal Tesla in robottaxi mode.) Say a residential home builder came into the neighborhood and put out an electronic work notice to robots in the area where during the day a household robot could be rented to help build a house down the street. The needed skills would be downloaded into the bot while on the job. That would free up the builder from needing to purchase or source robots themselves. Or what if package delivery were fully automated - an autonomous Amazon truck pulls onto your street, full of packages loaded by robots, and it sends out a notice to robots in the neighborhood who have packages to pick up. They come out of their homes, find the truck, get the packages and return them to the house. All very plausible.

  • @larryburford1871
    @larryburford1871 หลายเดือนก่อน

    AJ makes some compelling arguments for his thesis
    Dr KIA makes some compelling arguments for his counter-thesis
    after some consideration, I offer the following conclusions
    (not investment advice, just my opinion)
    1) Tesla is NOT NOT NOT the only humanoid robotics venture that will avoid crashing
    2) Many of the others WILL crash, BUT NOT ALL (same as #1 ; - )
    3) Investing in the others, if you are lucky, can do better than Tesla (perhaps MUCH better)
    final answer ...
    4) Investing (as opposed to trading) in Tesla (for the robotics thing among others) is as close as it gets to a certain winner
    Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances
    Good luck

  • @timsteinkamp2245
    @timsteinkamp2245 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    When we see people carrying bots in their arms to the local repair shop because the dog tripped it or the boy was to ruff with it, not to mention the actuator quits because of a glitch in the software then let's talk. I still have to restart my computer before I watch a stream to make sure it "hopefully" doesn't start freezing up. Will a bot need to be restarted everyday? Even my internet cell connection goes out and guess what? You have to reboot it. Does anybody feel okay about leaving their home with some electronic running and is confident it will work while gone for six months?

  • @NickFallon88
    @NickFallon88 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I agree the EV space was unique. Tesla's advantage is mass manufacturing experience the other have only built prototypes.

  • @shawncooper8131
    @shawncooper8131 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Tesla, I think, has the mass manufacturing costs advantage. I will also add the extra money they will have on hand next to the start ups.

  • @jamesowens7176
    @jamesowens7176 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think you have a valid point. The TAM for humanoid bots is SO large that even Tesla will never be able to keep up.

  • @daveoatway6126
    @daveoatway6126 หลายเดือนก่อน

    One of Tesla's advantages is first developing the product that makes the product!

    • @Jay-eb7ik
      @Jay-eb7ik หลายเดือนก่อน

      the factory. so many forget it.

  • @RussInGA
    @RussInGA หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Im hearing buy the bot companies IPOs early, sell high then short them. Got it. Ride the lucid wave.

  • @jackcoats4146
    @jackcoats4146 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    On Bots, I hope that there will be humanoid bots, but then that will allow newer bots, both larger and smaller and different form factor for specialty applications to become more viable. Large bots for lumberjack type or even working in steel mills where it might substitute for several people with many tools that protect our 'meat machine' bodies, smaller to go into smaller spaces to do various tasks (once I had to ask several plumbers if they had a small plumber because of the access the builder left in the house I had was to small for more standard size persons to access, it was embarrassing for me as a customer to have to ask like that. I did get a skilled small plumber, but his assistant could have played line backer in the NFL, they were a very Mutt & Jeff style team!).
    Even making specialty bots should become easier as the intelligence grows and the know how to program them!

    • @fractalelf7760
      @fractalelf7760 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      We have hints from Tesla they are working on non-humanoid bot designs as well. No reason to not expect larger humanoid bots for some use cases like debris removal, etc.

    • @robotsaroundthehouse
      @robotsaroundthehouse หลายเดือนก่อน

      Where can I find this info on other Tesla robots?

  • @MsAjax409
    @MsAjax409 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think Tesla will dominate the humanoid robot industry as AJ points out, but look at SpaceX as a better analogy for why. The reason is that to be successful in the autonomous robot business, you have to crack the AGI "sound barrier". Tesla is well on their way to doing that because of the work they've done on FSD and having invested billions in compute to make AGI possible. The same was true in the space launch business where SpaceX created reusable rockets. After nearly a decade, no other rocket company has duplicated SpaceX's feat, and now SpaceX commands 2/3rd of all LEO launch business worldwide.

    • @timsailors
      @timsailors หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nailed it!

  • @litwah579
    @litwah579 หลายเดือนก่อน

    No need to destroy competition!

  • @mynameismatt2010
    @mynameismatt2010 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think the major difference is there was no company at massive scale able to pour billions of dollars into producing a product that is structurally superior to every other product during the automotive revolution like there will be with the bot revolution.
    I could see a 95/1/1/1/1/1 scenario where Tesla has the vast vast majority of the market and other players share the tiny fraction that remains.

  • @WarrenLacefield
    @WarrenLacefield หลายเดือนก่อน

    One big difference between now and the early 1900's is the rate of change. Starting then to now has been 100 years. Going from a situation now into the future at the current rate of change will take much less time. On the other hand, given your comparison of horses to cars (even early cars) and people to robots, with a given "task space", the horses did go obsolete very quickly over the next 10-15 years after Henry Ford got mass production of cars going.

  • @timsteinkamp2245
    @timsteinkamp2245 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What we have seen and come to accept is they can make anything and if the people want them they will buy them then learn them later and if they fail will accept it and wait for an upgrade. Computers and the software was the release of beta products on the people and we have come to accept it but the old radios and TV's were reliable in my opinion. I use an antenna and it is fine and gives me plenty variety but some times when the wind is blowing the TV cuts out constantly. I have to wait a few hours for the wind to quit and I get a signal. I could put up a taller antenna and other things but I would not accept that in a piece of hardware like the TV.

  • @Billi13
    @Billi13 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Bots are not limited to everything humans can do.

  • @SIRICKO
    @SIRICKO หลายเดือนก่อน

    Optimus DESTROY Bot Competition yes I AGREE because they have DOJO !!!!!

  • @drsmetal2747
    @drsmetal2747 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Ability humanoid robotics is currently operating in Amazon warehouses. Their TH-cam channel is showing it live. 😊

    • @fractalelf7760
      @fractalelf7760 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Yeah we all know, it’s been covered here and elsewhere multiple times. It’s no competition for Optimus though or even figure for general use.

    • @tedmoss
      @tedmoss หลายเดือนก่อน

      There are no Ability robots. Particularly in Amazon warehouses.

  • @Chris-gs7cq
    @Chris-gs7cq หลายเดือนก่อน

    The model T had 20 horsepower. And horses can't vote. So of course horses were rapidly replaced.
    Bots will be competing with humans so I'm not sure it is really a wide open market. It will play out differently in each country depending on the labour market, regulations etc.
    Might be very rapid adoption in some niches but not others.

    • @tedmoss
      @tedmoss หลายเดือนก่อน

      This has all been predicted many years ago. Those that won't change will go out of existence.

  • @jackcoats4146
    @jackcoats4146 หลายเดือนก่อน

    FYI on Workhorse, as I remember it, Workhorse was going to do a EV delivery van and was well on its way, but somehow management got distracted with wanting to ALSO do a postal delivery vehicle, then the next shiny thing took their attention. IMHO their lack of staying focused on ONLY ONE or two areas got them to spread out for the capital (both $$ and people time) available. So loosing laser focus is their death knell. I had lots of hope for them in the beginning, but they are just a hanger-on at this time. I hope I am wrong.

    • @andrewsaint6581
      @andrewsaint6581 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Yes, I made a few quid on them. $2.50 before run up to the post van fiasco.

  • @JoshuaGold1
    @JoshuaGold1 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think it will be down to who can get you the best value for your dollar. So if tesla will be abke to do that first, they'll be the only one. However, if tesla is first but not relatively cheap or useful, they probably won't even have an impact on that market.

  • @odderret
    @odderret หลายเดือนก่อน

    Cars are a lot tougher to make. Robots are going to be coming from every direction at every price point. ANY person can make an autonomous bot for little money NOW. The performance delta of Optimus will not outweigh the tidal wave of DIYs and competitors in the global market.

  • @europeantechie
    @europeantechie หลายเดือนก่อน

    i have nothing to say but i like the video so i leave a comment ok thx bye

  • @johntrotter8678
    @johntrotter8678 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The horse (as labor) was replaced by many different machines, not just cars and trucks. Water wheels and then steam engines and combustion engines. Similarly, human labor is being replaced and will be increasingly replaced by several types of AI-robots, not just "humanoid" ones. For example, farm harvesting might do well with purpose-built machines, AI-assisted ones. Clearly, weapons systems are shifting to AI-robotic systems, not at all humanoids. As with "robotaxis", Tesla seems to be rushing into first place in a limited field.

    • @darylfoster7944
      @darylfoster7944 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Robots are being designed in humanoid form because the world is designed for humans. Will every job require humanoid form? Obviously not, but it hardly seems to be a limited field.

  • @zagabog
    @zagabog หลายเดือนก่อน

    If humanoid robotics follows the pattern of early automobile companies, we will initially see a diversity of different solutions. One or two successful patterns will win out, there will be many insolvencies and consolidations, before a later to the game market following innovator like Ford establishes a lead disrupting the incumbents. It could be that Tesla, Figure and other purported leaders will not be the companies that commodify the robots, it may be some as yet unforeseen competitor that disrupts them all.

  • @cogollo1974again
    @cogollo1974again หลายเดือนก่อน

    I don't think Tesla was late... most startups started publishing their videos after Tesla started their project... many of them are trying to just copy Tesla or at least use the opportunity to raise capital... this does nkt mean they will fail, but it will be very difficukt for anybody to pick the correct one apart from Tesla.

  • @bigdougscommentary5719
    @bigdougscommentary5719 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Pretty low margin compared to what Cern? Not pretty low compare to legacy automakers.

  • @Leoninmiami
    @Leoninmiami หลายเดือนก่อน

    love these conversations really gets one thinking. Moral of the story? Telsa will dominate. Yes, there will be others but its a guessing game as to who and when. No one else has the manufacturing experience/expertise/capacity, the AI vision or Elon. For an analogy, I like the current "space race". I'll second Cathie Wood, in 5 years time, Tesla 10xs from current levels

  • @HablaCarnage63
    @HablaCarnage63 หลายเดือนก่อน

    There will be plenty of room for everyone to make robots. We’ll need so many.
    What I’m less certain of is where is all the money to pay for them going to come from?

    • @paulmcgreevy3011
      @paulmcgreevy3011 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Well you buy 1 that does profitable work and Bob’s your uncle you have income to buy the next bot which gives you 2 incomes then 3,4,5.

    • @darylfoster7944
      @darylfoster7944 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Where does the money come from to pay employees?

    • @HablaCarnage63
      @HablaCarnage63 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@paulmcgreevy3011 Hopefully.

    • @HablaCarnage63
      @HablaCarnage63 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@darylfoster7944 Unemployment insurance initially is my guess. But it does make me wonder who the customers will be for these now more efficient businesses if so many end up with no job.

  • @MichaelDeeringMHC
    @MichaelDeeringMHC หลายเดือนก่อน

    Spiderbots!

  • @saltvatn
    @saltvatn หลายเดือนก่อน

    👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

  • @bedrosdil1200
    @bedrosdil1200 หลายเดือนก่อน

    you need to factor in the AI leaning into the Robots. Tesla vehicles are currently providing the billions of miles of videos/logs for the Tesla ML to learn and get better. The same ML will be used to improve the Tesla Optimus. Others will have a much smaller data set to be used for machine learning... That will be Tesla's competitive avantage Including their FSD and their Robots
    .

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    @AnthonyFernando233 หลายเดือนก่อน +17

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      @MichaelLuke-vk8jk หลายเดือนก่อน

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  • @jdskates.69
    @jdskates.69 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    When is the best time to invest into Tesla for humanoid bot boom? obviously now it is down everyday, so looks like $101 on the charts, but how long will it take for humanoid bots to play out?

    • @Chris-gs7cq
      @Chris-gs7cq หลายเดือนก่อน

      Never.
      Share price will rocket once Model 2 comes out in January 2025 and Florida approves Robotaxi late 2025 and you miss the entry point for the bot play.

    • @jdskates.69
      @jdskates.69 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Chris-gs7cq wut? Never? Are you implying buy now or never buy? I'm confused on your comment.

    • @Chris-gs7cq
      @Chris-gs7cq หลายเดือนก่อน

      @jdskates.69 It's the wrong question.
      There will be several other major catalysts for the share price before bots have any effect (years from now).
      You should be asking when news of model 2 release or successful FSD or Robotaxi approval in Florida comes out and makes the charts irrelevant.
      If robotaxi works it's a 10x to the share price by 2030.
      If it doesn't work, you can't expect much from bots.

    • @jdskates.69
      @jdskates.69 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Chris-gs7cq ahh. I see. That's a fair analysis. I'll dove into FSD and robotaxi too. Humanoids have been sparking my attention recently since Figure AI partnered with multiple companies recently and tsla bot showing great progress. The chart is awful looking, but could mean a great buying opportunity in the stock is here.

    • @honkytonk4465
      @honkytonk4465 หลายเดือนก่อน

      2 to 3 days max

  • @gzsg1
    @gzsg1 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Do you own stock in any of Tesla’s bot competitors? If you do that is blinding you.

  • @justinwood7683
    @justinwood7683 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks Dr.
    A humanoid robot is a useless party trick without a brain.
    Tesla is at the forefront of real world A.I. with it’s massive data lead thanks to FSD.
    They have built Optimus from the ground up prioritising manufacturability and scalability.
    Prototypes are easy, manufacturing is hard!
    When Tesla brings these things together along with their supply chain prowess, I pity those investors who again gamble on failed startups.
    Thanks again for your videos!

  • @robotsaroundthehouse
    @robotsaroundthehouse หลายเดือนก่อน

    Musk worked out how to re-use rockets- something nobody else has achieved. What makes you think he can’t also achieve a similar result in the humanoid robotics sphere?
    So you are saying companies and countries that can’t work out how to re-use a rocket can somehow create a humanoid robot with capabilities on par with Optimus?!
    Looking at the competition, Optimus is light years ahead. I also believe we are only seeing old prototypes of Optimus, with all the recent advances kept under wraps until the next iteration is developed.
    I’m not convinced Optimus has any competition.

  • @panpiper
    @panpiper หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The demand for humanoid robots will be such that ALL such robots will sell profitably for may years, as long as they reach a minimal standard of functionality. Tesla will NOT be selling 'cheap' robots. They will lease robots for whatever price the market will bear. And 'that' means that as long as demand remains high, all producers will be able to move their bots. The only question is how profitable they will be for their manufacturers and if they get their manufacturing shit together by the time supply finally meets demand, at which point utility plus cost of manufacture will determine the winner. I do not expect supply to meet demand for a good ten years. That's a lot of breathing room. All that said, Id still be putting my money on Tesla.

  • @jhkcut
    @jhkcut หลายเดือนก่อน

    One Perspective is to Differentiate substantially between New Tech Connected Cars and Historic ICE. (Consider they are NOT the same) There was no market for BEV connected cars when Tesla started the Run. It was a virgin market - just like Bots is today. The points AJ makes about Tech&Factory competence WAS a differentiator in 2012 for Cars that still exists today because the incumbents have failed to re-invent their own DNA. . That same differentiator exists today for TESLA Bot. ( made for manufacture and for the factory) I don’t think we have seen the ultimate competitors for Optimus yet : but we will, and it will be CNP funded. Unless Elon can replicate the Shanghai favouritism he engineered with Car Factories and deliver a dedicated Chinese based Bot Factory for Export (he could) . May you live in Interesting times & keep the Box Seats.

    • @jhkcut
      @jhkcut หลายเดือนก่อน

      Further there IS a market for BOTS today , but they are Fixed to the floor.
      They are the incumbents who May or may not be able to alter their own DNA . They ARE part of the Factory Supply chain already .. I wonder ? But then that’s only one segment: Humbots for Factories . Humbots for Homes is HUGE and maybe Apple should license Optimus for exclusive supply to the domestic markets.?

  • @stevenbarrett7648
    @stevenbarrett7648 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If I was producing robots I would first have them make more robots then employ the same robots to produce my other products such as cars. I don’t believe I would sell said robots but renting them out gives a revenue stream plus my business would still hold the IP …. Then again I don’t make robots, sigh

  • @RodFlaman
    @RodFlaman หลายเดือนก่อน

    How does being too new and too big translate into 5-10 successful players? Why is this not a winner take all situation?

    • @RodFlaman
      @RodFlaman หลายเดือนก่อน

      Answering my own question, obviously in the short term, Tesla will not be able to manufacture enough bots to meet the demand. Having said that, I believe that Tesla could ramp up production incredibly quickly.

    • @RodFlaman
      @RodFlaman หลายเดือนก่อน

      Question. How much of Tesla's existing manufacturing capacity could be quickly converted to bot production. Even without servely reducing EV production capacity. Or simply adding capacity to EV factories that already have supply chains and infrastructure.

  • @joe55514
    @joe55514 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Sometimes despite the possibility to lose, you invest in a future you like to see.
    You also might want to take risk and either see your investments getting multiples or not invest at all.
    I personally rather lose 1000 dollars while dreaming about it being worth 100000 in ten years and vote with it for a product or service I like to see in the future then investing in old white mans industry to have 1050 dollars in 10 years.

  • @GG-si7fw
    @GG-si7fw หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Makes me wonder if Tesla's bots will be used in battles as if they have that capability to do human tasks. Clear mines, spotter, load vehicles, porter aaccompanying footsoldiers, decoys, build structures, etc. I was wondering if they could be drafted for a war?

    • @Chris-gs7cq
      @Chris-gs7cq หลายเดือนก่อน

      Evacuating the wounded.
      That whole thing where a soldier gets shot trying to help his buddy who just got shot always annoys me in the movies.

  • @perjohanohlsson
    @perjohanohlsson หลายเดือนก่อน

    Your reasoning makes sense, however, there was no Tesla back in those days. Not even Ford was Tesla.

  • @jimcallahan448
    @jimcallahan448 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    WRONG!
    Sorry, John early automobile industry is bad analogy for two reasons:
    1. Robots are B2B
    2. Robot companies are far better capitalized than early automotive companies.
    Better analogy would be computer industry in 1950s and early 1960s.
    In mainframe era (IBM & 7 dwarfs) well capitalized companies competed in B2B marketplace.
    IBM beat tech companies like Univac, RCA and GE (my dad worked for RCA).
    IBM's B2B salesforce mattered. The sales force finds product champions within companies willing to sponsor experiment.
    So, the winner in the first round of robotics might be Oracle!
    When Elon realizes that robots need a sales force he might talk to his friend Larry Ellison.
    Oracle's lunch is being eaten by open source PostgreSQL; so his sales force needs a new product.
    Oracles champions within companies are losing to Postgres and cloud while PCs are routine replacements.
    Robots will be the new frontier in corporate America.
    Is WalMart an Oracle customer?
    Maybe Tesla could lease robots to their B2B Semi customer Pepsi.
    Say hi, to Cern Basher and Scott Walter from their Orlando friend.

  • @jjamespacbell
    @jjamespacbell หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    You still have no humanoid robots that have demonstrated they can take over any current jobs. Do they have the potential yes but, they are at least 2 orders of magnitude away from doing any general work. Bussing tables for instance requires a lot of understanding of the environment , human interaction (don't take the plate from someone who is not finished), how to manipulate cups, plates, cutlery etc.
    Can you find a simple factory function that a robot can do? Maybe, but you should probably have eliminated that non value task from the process years ago.

  • @alexharvey9388
    @alexharvey9388 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves with this bot stuff. Currently from a cost perspective it’s more expensive than human labor. Additionally, the current tech is no where near as capable as a human. We are NO where close to having humanoids replace human labor.

    • @jabulaniharvey
      @jabulaniharvey หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      dont discount the rate of progress in AI though

    • @darylfoster7944
      @darylfoster7944 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      NO where is one word.

    • @bluetoad2668
      @bluetoad2668 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      A bubble is usually associated with people getting ahead of themselves. The question is how long does it take to deliver the promise? I believe that bots represent a technology convergence of robot control systems, AI perception, NN training and running hardware capabilities. This could happen fairly quickly as it did when smartphone technology became available in 2006/7.

  • @stevewarn4398
    @stevewarn4398 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Soon optimus will be able drive/pilot any vehicle.

    • @tedmoss
      @tedmoss หลายเดือนก่อน

      Easy does it junior, what about all those companies that make very expensive aeronautics equipment? They aren't going to like being replaced by an inexpensive robot. Same goes for sea navigation.

    • @stevewarn4398
      @stevewarn4398 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @tedmoss I meant vehicles that can be operated by one person like a helicopter or motorcycle etc. But you have a point that stuff like an aircraft carrier with a full crew of robot is a long way off for now.

  • @BatmanBoss
    @BatmanBoss หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks buddy

  • @davidbeppler3032
    @davidbeppler3032 หลายเดือนก่อน

    UBI is a serious issue. We need to tax machines. Farmer combines take hundreds of low paying jobs from illegal aliens and children. This needs taxed.

  • @edm3184
    @edm3184 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I just want something to clean my house!

  • @user-kh3yr4tf8f
    @user-kh3yr4tf8f หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    SOUNDS LIKE SOMEONE IS JEALOUS! 🤯🤯🤯🤯. Nothing succeeds like success. Try to build an EV yourself, bet you can’t do it!

  • @DanFrederiksen
    @DanFrederiksen หลายเดือนก่อน

    I see your point and it seems quite true for EVs, few are surviving if any other than Tesla but robotics can be done relatively cheaply so it's not as obviously a cost killer however the trick is to make them useful and there many of then will likely fail. You need staying power to last until the techniques are good enough. Yann LeCun and I say that AGI is not as close as it might seem. I say a breakthrough is possible any day but current trajectory wont get there. Any real intelligence could be 20 years away and judging by israel's evil we may not make 20 years. You may have noticed that even Elon serve their evil. And all of US congress and presidency. And most of Europe's leaders.

  • @tedmoss
    @tedmoss หลายเดือนก่อน

    To be accurate in what is going to happen in robotics, you need to be more caustic in your evaluation of these companies and their motivations. Humans have not changed in 100 years and they are still out for the quick buck. Companies like Boston Dynamics were started with the idea of living off the government teat. Tesla has a better idea. Other companies will eventually become successful by following on Tesla's coattails. The rest will die. Either way of looking at it comes to the same conclusion.

  • @martinoplaya7805
    @martinoplaya7805 หลายเดือนก่อน

    zbiotics are getting good reviews even on reddit, but they don't ship to latvia! 😭

  • @harrycornelius373
    @harrycornelius373 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Point One: uptake of robots may be over estimated The Tesla brand may work for and against it. On the labour front Tesla has the unions riled because EVs take less labour. Large unionized clients may not be able to make the transition to boys because labour strife may fatally close production. right now chatbots are killing jobs in call centres around the world. That hasn’t touched the North American landscape because those jobs were Already outsourced. Look out for shit to hit fan when bots are deployed. Wait til labour terrorists bomb the first bot factory 😊 Second point. The mechanics of bot design and manufacture will become commoditized. The brain is the key. Will Teslas FSD experience deliver lasting competitive advantage ? I’m not so sure. Tesla not only AI company. The Chinese will steal whatever tech they can and Google and Microsoft/Open AI will not sit on their hands. Now place all this in the geopolitical landscape and who knows

  • @joecarmo9059
    @joecarmo9059 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I beg to disagree with this assessment. The assertion that the robot market a "green field" is incorrect. Per Stanford there are 3.4 million industrial robots operational today. Also every Tesla Vehicle (just Tesla, no others) are also robots. The current problem is they are all in OZ singing "If I only had a brain." That includes the defunct Asimo and the burly Atlas. The winner will be a single winner, the first one to develop and deploy the "brain" they are clamoring for (all robots not just humanoid). I know you purists will say it was the scarecrow singing that song and ironically some people talk about the robots as if they were scarecrows in the sense that they instill fear. It seems now that we are talking about it I suspect Elon may want to give them a heart as well. Could Elon be the real Wizard of OZ? A real one not the fake one of the story... you got me thinking!

  • @tamaslegner
    @tamaslegner หลายเดือนก่อน

    Oh so you have a conflict of interest.
    I side with AJ. Without AGI and low cost no robot worth buying. That is the reason Boston Dinamics is not succesful.
    Tesla will have AGI only.

  • @LegendaryInfortainment
    @LegendaryInfortainment หลายเดือนก่อน

    It is well known that Tesla is the finest builder of machines optimized for building machine building machines. The robots are machines, so..... Tesla wins! Thanks Doc.

  • @bonkers_dave
    @bonkers_dave หลายเดือนก่อน

    Humanoid form is a niche in the autonomous robot field. Not every autonomous robot has to be a drop-in replacement for people.

    • @mitchell10394
      @mitchell10394 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Completely disagree. With humanoid robots you can assume they can carry out human tasks. You do not need to create a specific robot for a specific task. If there is a more versatile form that is simpler and works better at scale - then maybe... but to say that humanoid bots would be niche is clearly absurd.
      One good model with scale can fit any use case. As a business owner - would you want to buy a robot that could become obsolete if your design / process / plans change?

    • @Ricolaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
      @Ricolaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It's a pretty necessary form factor. For training, for accessibility and for general use cases.

  • @Superburke53
    @Superburke53 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The probiotic BS is such a turn off!!

  • @adamsplanet
    @adamsplanet หลายเดือนก่อน

    So there is this country, you might have heard of it..... China

    • @chetubetcha8090
      @chetubetcha8090 หลายเดือนก่อน

      If Tesla and OpenAi were partnered, this wouldn't be a discussion...Everything that OpenAi has, would super charge Tesla's software systems...exponentially increasing Tesla's hardware performance...
      Oh, one can dream, can't they?

  • @AFeigenbaum1
    @AFeigenbaum1 หลายเดือนก่อน +26

    I hate ads ... please put them at the end or chapter your video so I can skip ... otherwise I'll just skip your channel altogether ... sorry ... I hate ads more than I like content ... any content ... yours or others ...

    • @odderret
      @odderret หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Bye…Gotta pay for your time somehow… just skip through the commercials or pony up for TH-cam premium. It’s more than worth it.

    • @glenw3814
      @glenw3814 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I got TH-cam Premium a few years ago and have never regretted it. Makes TH-cam 200% better.

    • @davab
      @davab หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Lol free education man

    • @howtoactuallyinvest
      @howtoactuallyinvest หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      You just want him to do this for free? The entitlement 😂

    • @shannonspence4183
      @shannonspence4183 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      😜🤣 C ya

  • @CourtneyBest
    @CourtneyBest หลายเดือนก่อน

    scam

  • @mmanjin
    @mmanjin หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I do agree there won't be one winner that takes all with bots. Will Tesla be a dominate player and be a dominate force as it is with EVs? Sure, but it would be a huge stretch to say they end up with a monopoly on bots. What I see playing out in order to survive in the bot space are bot manufacturers that are very specialized and excel in a niche area.
    An example that comes to mind that I think would be hugely successful would be to make a very humanistic and realistic sex bot. Let's face it folks, it doesn't take a genius to know that sex sells and lots of lonely guys and gals and couples, etc., that would pay a very decent sum for their own personal "specialized" partner (or partners) to be at their beck and call at any time as needed with no complaints or excuses that will always be ready, willing and able to please.

  • @mp6756
    @mp6756 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    You're all missing the point Tesla is successful because it's a cult following not because of price or manufacturing prowess. Just like Dr know slobbering all over everything, Elon.

    • @FumbledorfTTR
      @FumbledorfTTR หลายเดือนก่อน +10

      Yeah, because the cult magically produced all those millions of teslas throughout the years…

    • @DemonNitrix
      @DemonNitrix หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      80% of people who bought a tesla in 2023 had never bought a tesla before... They just make good cars people want.

    • @michaelb3522
      @michaelb3522 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Claim without evidence while there is ample evidence to the contrary.

    • @johnbgibbs
      @johnbgibbs หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Because ELON BAD 😂😂😂😂

    • @nguyep4
      @nguyep4 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Listening and critical thinking isn't your strength. That is unfortunate.

  • @kevryfabroni
    @kevryfabroni หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think he is right and that you are wrong but for more specific reasons. I believe you are making a mistake in your analogy with the automotive industry:
    - you consider the entire history of the automotive industry as a relevant point of comparison and I think that's a mistake. The reason is simple, they all had essentially the same industrial structure, essentially built to just be automobile manufacturers.
    The context becomes somewhat more relevant with "start-up EVs," but not so much because the heart of the problem remains the same. Tesla is not just an automobile manufacturer; it's a fundamental mistake that, when translated to the level of 'AI startups,' will have the same consequences.
    Tesla starts with an advantage and a lot of advantages, plus the fact of being very agile and vertically integrated with very high reactivity and a lot of talent; the same causes will lead to the same effects. And this is just the most obvious argument; there are others, but we can discuss them if you want.
    Regarding X "@deshaies97126," there are more arguments to consider. Let's discuss them if you're interested.