Tesla's Optimus $25 TRILLION Opportunity
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ม.ค. 2024
- Elon Musk has agreed that as soon as the 2040s we could be looking at 1 billion robots doing productive work--and this changes everything!
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I think everyone's going to be in for a heck of a shock how quickly companies switch to humanoid and A.I bots.
In a little over 5 years. I've seen this before when revolutionary tech is on the horizon. Think of the internet 97 to 2005.
Businesses and the miliary will pay $200,000+ for a Tesla Bot that works. No insurance, no FICA, no FUTA, no 401k, no vacations, no 5 day work week, no 8 hour days, no hospitalization. It will pay for itself easily.
The sooner this happens the better. Most workers don’t want to work anymore anyway. Covid handouts spoiled the society work ethic forever.
Tesla won’t sell the bot to them. They will get the cheaper Figure knock-off.
True definitely can't wait to see 🎯
But how will the money stay in the economy? If you can't earn a penny because robots and AI is doing your job, you can't afford going to a restaurant or buying a car... this is still unsolved
@@gansmaier3994 Maybe you don’t earn money anymore…. Meaning, certain things like food, shelter and care basics become guaranteed.
I'm seeing them working behind a desk and answering questions, working in sales, showing people around facilities and doing training.
🙋♂️🤗 THANKS JOHN,FOR SHARING THIS 🤔💚💚💚
🙋♂️THANKS JOHN,FOR SHARING THIS 🤔💚💚💚
Theres like 7 billion smartphones right now
Hey Elon, give my TSLA some love.
We are in a strange investment world where the stock goes down despite obvious exponential growth.
"I live my life (investments) a quarter -mile- at a time" -Dom: The Fast and the Furious
Thanks, as alway clear and concise information
Thanks John!
Optimus would be great for clearing mine fields. Tedious, dangerous, messy work.
There could be a geometrical progression with robots being able to manufacture robots.
It's not like the transition from ICE to EV. It's like the transition from horse and buggy to cars. This time we are the horses.
Nice one. I am going to use this as example for the morons among us who have no idea what's happening.
That is a funny comment, for sure, but I think there will be a difference. We will take full advantage of the transition ... well, maybe horses did too. I live in Kentucky ("Horse capital of the world", etc.) and the thoroughbreds and quarter horses, and the equestrian traditions, do enjoy themselves in the limestone-fed (blue)grass fields. (Lot fewer horses though now, domesticated or wild.)
@@WarrenLacefieldwhich coincidentally is exactly where human population appears to be going as well… 😅
@@timothyewing4009 Hope not. Would prefer we take the extra "labor" opportunity and spread out into space. Build pyramids (e.g., data servers) on the Moon and all sorts of space factories and habitats, etc.
@@timothyewing4009Machines will retire us, like we retired horses and oxes.
There will be new opportunities, like robot repairs, robot after sales, and robot mods. Also services for training / re-training
I needed this hopium. Thanks.
This will definitly be!
So I'd like to see autonomous vehicles carrying a robot. Then when the car is blocked by an obstacle - say a gate, livestock on the road etc - the robot can get out, investigate and clear the obstacle to allow the vehicle to continue.
Excellent thanks
Totally agree John! I drive FSD everyday big fan of it but the bot will Thrive before FSD exclamation point just like you said far more safety critical driving far last night's to chase with the bot can't wait to watch this take shape
Far less 99s to chase to achieve acceptable safety levels 👌 💯
Perhaps you should have included a link to Dave Lee's video
I will definitely buy one within five years 😍
Tony Seba calls it convergence I believe.
think of the mods for optimus, like a c3po or Turanga Leela or my favorite Cylons costume.
I'm in the process of signing off 5 new machines for our company and we use 90% efficiency rate, they cost more than the proposed price of Optimus...
Re: safety, robotic firmware needs to have Asimov’s first law of robotics embedded into it. This should be possible using Tesla Vision and possibly IR sensors to enable the robot to recognize the presence of humans. This will be critical for public acceptance, protecting the emerging market, and for protecting the manufacturer from injury lawsuits.
Asimov's books are a critique of that very idea. Every story is about a different way the three laws failed. In the end, it's finally realised that the super intelligent AI decided that the best way to follow the three laws was to secretly take over the world and had already done so. People thought they were free, but were really being manipulated by the AI in every choice they made. Which is a surprisingly accurate description of the present.
Laws are too abstract. Better to imbue emotions and just do like you do your friends, make them like you. Then you are good. Nobody has 3 laws to like their friends and take care of them. But they do.@@zaibian7
The Irony is that Asimov himself, in his books, pointed out everything wrong with those three laws. For one, just three rules gives rise to generalisation and that is always bad, especially for a machine with enough strength to shred organic matter.. It's really not the best way to program a robot. Actual sensible rules are way more nuanced and have a ton of exceptions, each of them with their own complexity. Also data loopback iteration is a necessity to form rational decisions concerning morality.
@@paulmichaelfreedman8334 when you make the robots, why would you make them stronger than humans? It's not required. Women do most of the useful work yet the average man can physically overpower the average woman. So I say, let's be careful how we build robots.
@@anthonylosego It's the smart ones you should watch out for. Who is more dangerous? A million strong marauding army, armed to the teeth, or the guy who invents and launches the chemical weapon that melts their faces off and turns every single one of them into a puddle of goo? Remember, the robots will be the ones building the robots.
Tesla is the best car company ever and no maintenance no gas stations no oil changes no smog check no belts no hoses no spark plugs no air filters.
Yes, but the hardware for such robots is rather simple and most tech businesses could build them. The AI software will probably be based on research that is in the open, so if AGI is achieved it will take like one year for the rest to catch up and so many businesses will make such robots.
Hardware may not be that hard except for the dexterity of the hands. That makes all the difference and its capabilities. Actuators. Tesla's got the edge.
Very interesting video
Wouldn't take up a staggering amount of realiatate. Also where would they be stored.
I think the idea of using robots instead of people in the future is great. However, in this demonstration video of Optimus, it looked like it was operating autonomously using AI, but it was actually operated by remote control, so I feel like I was fooled 😫
They're testing the physical functionality of the robot's mechanics. You HAVE to be doing that as part of the development phase (which is going very quickly). There is also the immediacy of all the required training of the neural nets. We're witnessing all of this right before our eyes. You don't run before you walk. But if "running" is imminently just ahead, I sure want to be investing during that initial "walking" phase, before a stock skyrockets as a result of the realization of the technologies effect! That's the whole point of this video. 😉
#TSLA 🚀
If you were fooled it's on you for lacking the attention span to notice that Elon made that point up front.
(disappointment could be justified, but progress is good)
Yes, I kind of agree - he should have shown the video AFTER the robot had learnt to do this autonomously - but well it’s still astounding the dexterity it has and the progress they have made :)
I’m so looking forward to seeing how robots like these contribute to the world. Although im rather scared of how how people will damage, abuse and misuse them (and of course hurt themselves).
Before it was revealed that it was remote, many TH-camrs (who called themselves robot experts) were praising Tesla's AI advancements that allowed it to operate autonomously in a short period of time. In the end, it was found out and they were humiliated😫
With regards to the EVs, the technology for the batteries is still lacking. I hear they don't hold charge in the cold, and heating the cabin is a real drain.
Also, since COVID and initial high demand for leased EVs, there is now an over supply. The second hand price now shows a massive depreciation. Just things to consider.
Please tell me when will that happen?
In all reality, we are probably looking at closer to 10 billion bots by the end of this decade. The s curve goes absolutely exponential when they start building themselves. Consider the production capability the speed of production, the size of the factories that is already been set aside for them and the planned expansions. Run the math brother. It's already in the works
Let me go into more detail because it sounds absurd. The space you need to produce these is approximately 1/10 of a Tesla. Look deep into the layout plans for the giga factories. Don't forget to include Berlin, the two factories in China, the expansion of Austin, the projected plans for Mexico. Even when you add the production lines for the model 2, the cyber truck, the semi and the roadster you are still looking at around 1/4 to 1/5 of these plants not being utilized. Everyone thought this would be for battery manufacture, but that plant has a distinct location in mind mostly because of ecological reasons. The batteries will not be produced at the gigafactories. Now do the math. 10 times production capability because of smaller form factor, two times production capability because they are designed to be made strictly by the bots, 1/5 Tesla production space utilized. Now quadruple that with what is already known on planned gigafactory increases. Never mind another five potential new factories by the end of the decade. Run the numbers yourself.
The only way that happens is if the first set of robots builds a robot factory and then self-replicates.
@@briandoe5746beyond pie in the sky. Literally as close to zero of a possibility as anything I can think of.
Assuming you are correct and they would be within a couple years, fully capable and ready to mass produce, you would still run into limitations of scale when you consider the inflow of materials and outflow of bots. There’s only so many that can be produced from a single factory. There’s only so many semi trucks and they can only load and unload so fast. So many factories would have to be built across the globe to achieve a billion bots by then. Doable but not anywhere near a certainty. Scaling beyond a billion that quickly gets nutty.
I figured a factory on the scale of Shanghai which produces around 1 million cars and has nearly maxed out the local infrastructure for inflow and outflow of materials should be able to produce around 10x as many bots. If they started building these factories one per year starting in 2026, ramping from 1 million to 10 million in each factory over a 7 year period (50% annually), it would take until 2043 for them to hit the 1 billionth bot. I can’t imagine Tesla doing this let alone 10x that.
@@timothyewing4009 many of the limitations of absurd production numbers at very large scale should have been addressed already behind the scenes at Tesla. Elon has said multiple times that this is now the main aim of Tesla. Also if you watch The attachment of the arms and look at the design of the legs. The bots are being designed with the unboxed method. The arms attached with one bolt and it looks like one plug. The legs attached to the hips with one bolt. The head may be a few if yet similar to the hands. If you look closely at the hands, they seem to be attached with only three bolts. This thing should be able to be assembled very fast. Also, it looks like the support structure of the legs has been changed to a quick molded plastic. Much of this should be able to be produced by the millions a day and easily thrown together. When you go back over the AI days from before, they also talk about the ability to rapidly produce the servos that was distinctly focused on during the engineering phase. Beyond that, there isn't much that would need to be scaled up. Don't forget the main processing and vision portion already has the the ability to be produced in the numbers needed for Tesla cars. And they are ready to easily 10x that number if needed. Production should be exceptionally fast and that was baked into the design purposefully.
I don't say this negatively, but musk is a doomer. He knows these bots have the potential to save us from ourselves. Even though he's not going to say it out loud, this is his driving force and always has been. In his mind, these bots are the answer. They have been specifically designed for rapid, efficient and very quickly scalable production. Take another look at the bot with those eyes. Even the exterior has been simplified for production.
Again, I know it sounds absurd but take another look at the design. This thing goes together like a Lego. It was distinctly designed to do so. Now you don't have to guess why.
Elon says ? Elon says lots of silly things, like about zipping through the Hyperloop, The Vegas Loop, Telsa cars flying, point to point rocket flights for people, colonizing Mars....
I am not sure any of those things or ideas is "silly". 50 or 60 years ago, people might have thought Dick Tracy watches were "silly" as well. (edit) Actually that was more like 80-90 years ago. Time sure does fly by. :-}
Let us not forget that we are building cars that efficiently since we have more that a century of manufacture experience. That cannot be said for humanoid robots. And industrial robots are to humanoid robots something like tissue to a human, orders of magnitude more complicated.
Just think about other relatively old tech like VR that could be implemented very easily today and could have a lot of benefits in the design industry (but not only) and they are still struggling to take off.
However, 1 bln humanoid robots by 2050-2060 is almost something certain.
Haven’t heard Blue screen of death for quite a while, 😂
TSLA will go to $10000!! LFG!!!
Excellent video. You have supported your opinions very well with facts, logic, comparisons. Refreshing!
While I am a believer, I see two major risks: 1. Time. Lets not underestimate the sea change this requires in society. Includes human acceptance, working environments, legal frameworks, ethics, factory adjustments.... See warehousing and how some like Amazon have automated so much but hit limits. And then so many warehouse that still use zero automation ecen though the technology is there now.
2. Humans, workers will fight back and politicians will just follow. You cant blame them. Think union membership could explode in order to fight the robots. They will stop at nothing to literally stop a shipment of union busting tesla robots.
Having said that im still a believer... Just not as big nor as fast as you may think.
Still Waiting on Solar Roof
There will be a bot for that!
lol agreed
Buy the powerwall first
The solar roof business is much more complicated than the business case for bots. The use of bots in manufacturing and other economic activities is only a matter of the technology getting sufficiently sophisticated. Then, the customers will figure out the rest.
@@jerryinmon2731 it's just a matter of time....
On the surface--it seems Tesla will dominate autonomous driving more than bots. That may be trivial given relative markets but bot space looking very competitive already.
He said the same about FSD
I wonder about the potential for exo-skeletons for handicapped people, for older people to enable movement and help rehabilitate people. An intelligent exo-skeleton might even serve as personal transport care provider vehicle. Also if the population is falling, doesn't that imply a smaller market for vehicles.. and an autonomous vehicle market means an even smaller demand for personally owned vehicles, and aging demographic means shifting behavior that doesn't move around as much or as far.
Airplane autopilots do have the ability to takeoff and even land, but they can't pull out of a hanger, taxi to the end of the ramp, or taxi off the runway onto a ramp and back to a hanger. That is more what Optimus is learning to do, not autopilot.
These numbers are calculated based on doubling the number each year from now. Cars for Tesla are growing about 50% each year, best case... We already have 3.5M worldwide aprox.
"Two decades" - Elon Musk
Different kinds of models? Farm boy, Factory Man, Domestic Engineer, Pool Boy, Garden maintenance boy….ideas are endless.ps…fuel rod changer boy.
BUY TESLA STOCK Now
In the carribean at 13 to 15 you have kids.
Tesla should only lease robots for at least the first 5 years (lots of stuff to work out).
You might not need them to run, but when you send them down the shops you'll want them to have roller skates
1st, it will take some time for the bots to start replacing humans wholesale, giving governments time to make adjustments. Secondly, as mentioned in the video, there is a massive labor shortage that will only get worse for several decades that these bots would be replacing. Lastly, people are already thinking about this serious problem, and one very likely solution will be a robot tax, which potentially could generate more governmental revenue than taxing human labor. None of this means that the transition will be smooth, but there are viable solutions.
A robot tax means that if you have a robot working for you, you have to pay the government the taxes it would otherwise earn from a human. In other words, nothing changes, besides that you also had to buy the robot on top of those taxes. It's like a company car of a self-employed person who has to pay a forfeit for having a company car while he also had to buy it.
@paulmichaelfreedman8334 Not how they were talking about. The robot tax would be taxed on the value of the bots' labor over its lifetime. But the savings over human labor not just including actual earned income but taxes, insurance, vacation, retirement, etc. When you take into account all the cost, even with the 1/3rd, it's value the savings to the companies are still massive. As a result, Tesla and any other bot makers could make massive amounts of money.
We need all these renewable energy sources just for all these new electric toys, not as a replacement for fossil fuels.
Is the development of robotic components such as hip, hands, arms & legs and associated actuators, sensors converging to a single design -because it wotks? If so, is this development and convergence emulating Darwinian evolution, orders of magnitude faster?
I sold 1500 shares! Keep pumping doc. I’m off the crazy train. Enjoy the ride.
oooohhh...Big mistake.
Your gonna regret that.
robots will soon be building robots, machines and factories to build more robots - at some point the process will take off exponentially on earth and then move to space (Mars) where they will also be building mining equipment, power stations, habitats and spaceships... - then it becomes a matter of squeezing everything that you need to bootstrap the entire technology stack into one vehicle i.e. a "seed" and "dispersing" these to other habitable planets/moons and beyond...
All of them as soldiers? 🤦🏻
If a car comes off the production line every 40 seconds - They’ll make a bot in box production every 3-4 seconds...
Did Elon also predict cars traveling on sleds in underground tunnels?
Politics will decide income distribution. You can‘t expect a bot to earn a human wage. It‘s a machine, and it‘ll earn a return relative to the investment outlay. That‘s why I think, it‘s better to build robots for the consumer.
Surely, human ingenuity and innovation are capable of a lot. Just be wary of Elon time and the sophisticated language some people bring to bear on speculation about the future. Terms like "orders of magnitude" and "form factor" are good to roll off the tongue, but the future they describe is not likely to come that easily and quickly. Don't allow yourself to be swept into frenzy. You can keep a level head and still participate in that future without being hurt by excessive speculation.
My mind boggles with crazy estimates of how many robots Tesla itself will use, maybe a million, which may be a few years product already sold.
Tesla can build 5+ Optimus with the resources to build a Model Y. They could easily make 1M/y starting in 2025 if they chose to. Optimus does NOT need a factory, just some warehouse space with power. One Optimus builds more and you bootstrap another production site. The speed of scale for production should not be underestimated.
And maybe 10 billion by 2500
❤
Hotel/Resort botworkers will be huge.
Won’t companies use LLM AI to design the sort of humanoid robots that Si-Fi has implanted in our minds? Better designed robots for improved capabilities and ease of manufacture and assembly (by robots!)?
I agree with you that Robots ARE the next dishwashers !
I still have doubts about the fingers though ! They don't grasp the way that a human hand does ! They are a bit too clunky at the moment !
[ I was amazed when I saw the hand that my son had made { when he was 15 in 1995 }, it was made out of cardboard and string, { for tendons }. He went on to University to study RNA Computing ! ]
I'm waiting for ""Data"" to come along !
Factory-wise does One robot make another robot, then two robots make four robots then four make eight ?
I think we'll soon get to the billion robots !
Take care !
The future begins in 2024
When will 100 shares of TSLA stock be able to buy a Tesla car?
2028
2024
My humanoid robot will carry my bags to the hyperloop when I travel to the spaceport for my Martian vacation.
I keep having visions of Walt Disney Mickey Mouse in the wizard multiplying the mops with the buckets of water. I want to know how we’re going to stop them when they get smarter and they’re able to multiply on their own.
People fear AI and robota for no reason.They dont understand that this od the future.
No one talks about battery run time. Too many talking heads on stuff way off in the future. Will robobot be allowed to charge itself by induction?
This is going to happen without massive borrowing and investment.
Bots everywhere all at once.
Also, Optimus would be good at nuclear safety. Robots can enter the reactors without human health issues.
The thing about the bot is, at least for now, it’s not as fast as a human. I suspect it never will be. Based on that, it can only replace a fraction of a human then. Factor in no bathroom or lunch break, you can make up some ground but still likely less than a human. Next is how long can it do the task without recharge? Perhaps forever if it can be tethered and that’s where I could see it beat out a human since it could do 3 shifts non stop. But you still may need many bots to replace one human. If it can’t be tethered then battery life becomes a big deal.
Don’t get me wrong, they are coming, but nothing I have seen suggests it’s anytime soon in any real numbers. Maybe I’m wrong, but my guess is this is equivalent to 2016 with fsd being here soon. Sounds great and looks super cool and promising. Just Way too early though with a lot of set backs yet to come.
A babysitter would be huge and I can see where it wouldn't be too hard to do.
I wonder if the advent of robots will further depress the birth rate. 🤔
1:30 The decline in human population is actually one of Elons motivations for making robots. At some stage we will run out of people to do all the work necessary to support society. I actually think 1 Billion is a bit low. There is a good chance that we will have multiple robots to support our lifestyle. Of course a very interesting application is assigning a robot to provide basic service (food, clothes, housing) to the lazy and the poor. Will probably be cheaper than paying social grants.
When considering such numbers, also consider the resources needed. Maybe 1 billion is simply too much, and our resources can only make 100 million in 17 years time. Keep in mind that most of these machines will probably not end up in recycling as quickly as for example a tv or car does. So we're probably going to see an increase in mines and mine workers. In poor countries, don't expect robots to replace such jobs on the short term.
It's the rich and lazy who need the most servants. More bathrooms need more cleaning staff.
@@paulmichaelfreedman8334 More likely bots will require far less resources than the worker they replace, granted there will be more of them, doing jobs that just don't get done at all today, in many use cases. What resources are you concerned about? There is no foreseeable shortage of magnesium, aluminum, iron, lithium or even petrol for plastics. Mined materials continue to require far fewer workers per unit production, they aren't as much the dirty hands on work of lore, women can drive 300ton trucks, etc.
If they are recycled less often that's all the better, but likely not the case early on, as newer better designs rapidly eclipse early models. Dozens of bots could be fabricate out of the materials required for one small car, just using crude mass metrics.
@@paulmichaelfreedman8334 They might. It will be interesting to see. But the reason why we outsource to poor countries is because labour is cheap. If you use the robot then the robot labour is much cheaper than labour in poor countries. The bigger problem in my opinion is that the traditional way for poor countries to work themselves up now disappear. So no more cheap labour can get you into manufacturing which later translates into other industries. Without starlink there is simply no hope for these countries.
@@jacobuserasmus the robots may be cheaper but the mines are in the poor countries and there, human labor will be cheaper than robots for some time to come.
I disagree about alot of what you said... mechanically and control systems have been available for a long time... the one thing that has not been available is a good way to program it... AI seems to have solved that to some degree..
Humanoid form kinda an interim stage, direct replacement for meatbag humans, adaptable.
Not going to miss repetitive / demeaning labour!
Cybertruck production line demonstrates non-humanoid automation still amazing - but dedicated to one task.
Maybe Grok / AGI can simplify tasks for dedicated machines vs humanoid form?
Not sure I want a billion humanoid bots walking the street at lunchtime ;-)
Or hoards of droids lining up at the Robosauna for an oil bath.
dr. as you should know the kruger dunning effect syndrome , your name even makes me think of it. but yeah. you also know whats wrong with these people effected with kruger dunning effect syndrome
That does explain elons theary on having more children.if we pay attention everything he says has logic behind it.thank you for this reel so we should not be surprised in the1940s.as you say they can be very beneficial
I'd expect a billion bots in 5 years if they take off this year.
2.5 Years If They Give Ai The Keys To Do It Itself 🦾🧠 🤖
Hmm…a robot…named Optimus…now why does that sound familiar? 🤔
(This is obviously sarcasm, we all know who the *Real* robot named Optimus is)
If there’s a billion humanoid robots on earth, you can bet the job market would disappear completely. Each robot is capable of doing the job of 3 people. For the amount of workers to hold up human society, about 1 - 2 billion workers is all you need
On the one hand, the economy will change. I doubt that hunter-gathers or even early farmers thought about their activities as "work" - in the sense of work-for-hire. Instead that was part of life and living and tribal activity, intermixed with time for play, leisure, and rest. Raising families is similar. That takes great sustained effort and activity but is highly rewarding. On another hand, probably most of those "billions" of robots will spend most of their time ... standing still or doing whatever they want (maybe helping families) ... like your grandparents or your computer when you are not using it or it is updating, etc.
I dont know, i think humanoid interactive robots need to be better than 99%
Your birth rate estimate is based upon the current paradigm of having to achieve an education and reach a fairly old age historically for having children so that you can support them in this society. AI might well change that paradigm. If education and employment are no longer the driving factors for the age of having children; the paradigm could shift toward the more historical teens. If there is a guaranteed minimum personal income, then this can be seen as a motivating factor to have children earlier.
1 billion robots with a $25T total addressable market with each roboy being sold for 25k. The assumption is that Tesla will build 100m to 400 million - 10% - 40% market share. As robots manufacture will be much cheaper than cars, competition would drive down the price closer to cost. Given this, let's assume the selling price of a robot is$12k to give Tesla's a total revenue of between 1.2T to $4T. Assume a net margin of 15% in money terms $180B - 600B spread over several years in the run up to the 2040s. This several years might equate to 10 years giving an average annual profit of $18 - $60. How much market capital would this add? Taking a very simplistic 30 p/e,to give an additional market cap of 0.54T - 1.8T. But, there is a lot of uncertainty related to competition in the US & China etc. In addition, countries will treat this as a strategic industry & likely erect barriers to competition. So, Tesla would do well to get above a 10% market share. Even though it's likely that robototic development will yield business opportunities that we've not even thought of, Tesla''s share price may not reflect this opportunity for a while. A more sophisticated analysis will take into account the the "ramp-up" & the life expectancy of the average robot leading to replacement & recurring revenues, but it won't change the fundamentals.
Elon, AI will take over. Also Elon, let me build a billion robots
I bet it will FREEZE just like a Tesla Dead 😮😮😮😮😢😢😢
The transition to Robotics will be okay if robots have to pay income tax
There's almost certainly going to be a bot tax. Some are suggesting up to a 3rd of the income generated by each bot. It could possibly generate more tax revenue than human labor can generate.
They don’t tax the self Check out bots at target..
Elon left out the bot wars and the eventual demise of man kind. LoL. There is no way in hell Elon knows what is going to happen in our distant future. Come-on...
By the 2040's or 2060's? That is quite a while from now. But there are about that many cellphones today ... and cars and toothpicks and light bulbs and bananas, etc. And if there are actually 10b people by then, they will want as much stuff as we do now. And a lot of that stuff will be high-tech and mass-produced and highly utilized. By then the economy will be quite different. "Abundance" will take on a different meaning. I suspect robotics on earth and in space will be taken for granted by then. Who knows, maybe more longevity and health or anti-gravity will become the biggest needs then? I suspect better education will be right up there - then as now - as well.
The big question. Does an Optimus that learns to drive renders FSD Teslas obsolete?
Having Optimus drive saves on vehicle FSD hardware cost as well as being a better robo taxi. It can close doors passengers leave open, etc. It also can use the vehicles battery to extend its power.
Car + robot = 2 machines to maintain. Rather give the car the ability to close its own doors.
What bots can do is to make any car somewhat autonomous because a humanoid can operate anywhere where a human can. Still two machines, but at least you're giving an already outdated machine abilities it never had.
Also cars can have cameras and sensors that give it visibility that a bot in the driver's seat would not have. Although it could be tethered to the car, but there will always be latency between the car and the bot and the data collected by the car's sensors will need to be translated for the bot to take actions. This will introduce layers that are risky.
The "the best part is no part" philosophy comes to mind.
@@robindehood207 you have to purchase FSD for every car you have and will have in the future. While one Optimus makes every car drivable. Is able to pick up items at the store, etc.
You don't need cameras everywhere on a vehicle if the robot can look everywhere anyways.
If the robots happen fast enough people would opt for the cheaper vehicle that can't self drive if their robot that cleans the house can also run errands in your car.
Robot fantasies. Naive people hopelessly buying into hype and pipe dreams.
@@singed8853 don't be a weirdo
While for now, each developer of a physical robot is doing their own software, the future will inevitably see all the robots drawing on the one big GAI source. The AI will learn how to interact with the world via every connected thing, and so the most trivial toy connected to the IoT will have behind it the 'brain' of the global AI. The AI will quickly learn how to make these actuators do its will. So in your room the AI will use the eyes and ears (your laptop camera and mic, your phones etc) to control anything that is connected. Your wee robot vacuum cleaner will be smarter than you!
log10 2033
99.nein nein nein nein nein
Detroit Become Human
it's the rise of the machines. Like for real. Humanity is doomed. seriously
Well....look at first mobile phones and look at how many generations up to the latest iphone. Fifteen years from now is probably the model that would be approaching the real deal. All the ones before that will be work in progress. In thirty years time kids won't even bat an eye when a bot walks past them.