Why do Some Investors Say TSLA to $30,000?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ย. 2023
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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$3k a share would be more than enough for me! $30k isn't something I am holding out for, but I wouldn't say it's impossible. LOL. Who knows what the future will bring. We didn't think Mexico would still be inactive and that Austin would be where the new lower cost car would be made. We didn't think 4680 would go silent (though we know they are still making batteries and improving the lines) We also didn't think FSD 12 would be the new hotness with neural nets and mind boggling amounts of data feeding it, would be how we will (probably/possibly) solve the Robotaxi equation much sooner and still a lot later than anyone expected.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I do think it is HIGHLY likely that Tesla will be the biggest company in the world by market cap in the future. I just wouldn't put a date on when that will happen. Until it does, there is plenty of upside left and even more hurdles and 1st to accomplish. This ride is far from over and I think even with delays and setbacks, the future is a lot more exciting with Elon and Tesla in it.
Glad we are in this together.
That’s way too bearish, TSLA to $100,000 per share! 🚀🚀
The question should be: When hit 300?
Exactly. So many useless videos pumping Tesla stock.
@@dhui777some people just like to think long term😄
@@octaviooctavio819 “long term” can also just be a wishful thinking especially in some unrealistic technologies like “human-like robots”.
We got to get to 400 a share first 😂
Lets first wrap our head around the fact that this company doesnt even see the value in advertising that the government is willing to give people $7,500 to buy their product.
Thanks for another balanced approach video, it’s so hard to make estimates with a company like Tesla with so many variables. Remember about 3 years ago when Cathie Wood said Tesla base case was $3000 per share by 2025 (and people were piling into ARKK)? Adjusted for stock split that would be $1000 by 2025. That’s only two years away and we’re only at $250. At this stage, it would just be nice if the stock got back to its all-time high by 2025, around $400 a share. Must be tough for those who went all in at $400. Again, hope I’m wrong but as they say hope is not an investment strategy. Cheers.
Yes i remember this. Cathie said it in 2021. I believe though, that there is a good possibility of the stock reaching $500 by the end of 2025, but again there are a lot of things that will have to happen before we get there. But i see almost zero chances of us reaching $1000. I always apply a reduction of ARK's price targets by around 50% to 60%.
@@ramses4321might as well just buy the SP index then. Less volatility and more stable.
@@ramses4321 Everything is going sideways or down in this economy. Wait until after the next presidential election cycle. It will come back with a vengeance.
Lee!! Another thought provoking video!! Thanks for your ongoing efforts in the world of TESLA!! Greetings from Canada!! GIDDYUP!!
Terrific episode! Love to hear those “what if” scenarios. I would be so happy with a SP near $1K. So would my kids!
Yep if it did I’d sell and retire. It would give me an 8 figure nest egg.
Closer to reality
Great video like usual
Of course Tesla could start buying back stock.
Exactly. We were told over a year ago. The buy should have started
It's a better use of the money to build factories.
Finally an adult voice in this crazy conversation concerning TSLA value - @2k is realistic and a great investment by 2030 ( or possibly a bit earlier). Thanks, Lee for your analysis!
this is the most levelheaded account talking about tesla. Thanks for that.
Easy to get to 15 million cars if you remember that every car company that wants to survive will be licensing FSD, and car production is 90 million every year. You only need 15% to have FSD, plus Telsa cars and you have 15 million robototaxis a year.
Apple from IPO 142,000%
Tesla from IPO 13,000%
X10 130,000% easily if X100 then anything possible Optimus robo taxi and FSD
Yes but Apple value is now about 3 times Tesla. You have to look at the market cap relative to the whole stock market. Ridiculous to project Tesla going to even $3,000. If it hits $1,000 I’ll sell mine as I can retire very nicely at that valuation.
Well, $30k sounds a bit much, but at 50% CAGR, as Elon has said many times: $250.00, 10 years, 50% CAGR and you have: and you have $15k/share. That sounds reasonable for sure. That is about a 60x from current stock price.
Very interesting perspectives Lee, lots of potential for Tesla and others who want a share of the market - The world coukd have tried to move from fossil fuels decades ago but the short term views and politics of power have put the world in a precarious situation, don't think it will be straight forward but Tesla is making great efforts to show what can be achieved.
I’m holding out for $1000 a share
I've already had amazing returns on my original tiny TSLA investment made years ago so it's hard not to fantasize after recently buying a bit more. It does seem similar to what I imagine the excitement over purchasing a lottery ticket must be - except with far better odds at getting your money back plus some added gains. Super important to temper expectations - thank you for putting this into proper perspective.
I am in the $3,000 a share camp by end of 2030.
I believe Tesla energy trading platform is underrated. If Tesla got a transaction fee from every trade made, it becomes like Visa or MasterCard were millions of small fees add up to big dollars on a daily basis.
I do share the belief that Teslabots are going to take more time than many think to develop to a truly useful level. I do believe Teslabots could replace 30% of Tesla workers by 2030. That would increase their margins and give an edge no competitor would have because Tesla will take care of their needs first.
The price of batteries going down and other EV tech will also play to Tesla margins growing, which should raise the stock prices.
FSD being pushed out of beta will be nice, but I think they have years, if not over a decade of legal issues to overcome before it will be an option people can use in most major markets.
Robots are over estimated along with fsd. Energy is underestimated, including by Lee
1000% agree
Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway 'A' shares were priced at $551,000+/share.
100x from today would be $79 Trillion USD , Total World GDP is currently $95 Trillion.... so yeah, not 100x, but 10x? Should be absolutely feasible. +29% market cap growth YOY 2032 would be 7.8 trillion. (Apple did those numbers as did Microsoft and Wallmart (I think)) I still have a lot of faith in the Tesla dream, but it all might take a bit longer. By 2032? Yeah.
I agree that as Tesla grows prices will come down which will affect share value. It might wind up being like Apple. We'll get to amazing stock values, but from share buy backs.
let's first reach $ 300 and go from there, but $ 3 k or $ 30 k is completely insane
Crazy pump and dump 😂
Today’s, that’s a plausible explanation for the hothouse/clubhouse thinking.
Analysts love bandwagons also.
If you plot Apple's historical growth and assumed it remained constant till 2030, Apple would be worth around 10 trillion. I dont think Tesla eclipsing this by 2030 is a stretch by any means at all.
Wonder if Tesla could enable their cars to form a convoy? I could see having two Teslas being very useful for family trips giving extra storage and even camping facilities.
Convoy will be a feature in Semi for sure & can easily apply to other models.
I recently started working in Modesto. I've now seen several Tesla semis pulling trailers for Pepsi/Frito lay. . . It's nice to see.
10X/$3,000
what must not be forgotten is optimus and future products such as self-driving semi-trailers and drones. an optimus robot can control ships and planes. excavators and work in mines. grow food and fish. build houses and produce everything between heaven and earth.
Same reason when people say tsla has no margin and sell their stock in swathes. Sell low and buy high is the name of the game...
I won't live long enough to see it.
I’d be thrilled with 300 FFS.
Because they have shares and want to be rich PDQ.
It’s just so easy to pick out the shareholders.
Dont forget the HVAC! I’m still waiting ⏳
How about looking at the share price with a PE of 30 in 2031 where 80% of new cars are BEV and Tesla is making 20M cars per year with a margin of 25% ?
I mean having it go to 3K would be phenomenal… but, let’s say Barron’s $1500 to star(which is only considering EVs with no FSD), $250 from the charging market, then say the AI data centers which are just getting started is say $500… and energy storage just $250…. $2500 minimally by around 2030. If Optimus takes off…. Let’s add another $1500… $3500 by 2040 is very realistic… notice I never added in FSD…
3 million billion a share. they will buy the world bro
Usd 3000 I m extremely happy already
I have yet to see even the uber bulls stated 30k as a stock price. 3k, yes, but no one is stated 30k. Send us some evidence.
ARK invest is predicting $2,000 per share by 2027 and $7,500 by 2030. What would your shares be worth if the stock hits those numbers?
I'm predicting 500 per share in 2027. That probably makes me a bear in a lot of people's eyes.
@@bluetoad2668you are a bear tbh
Ark makes wild assumptions around robotaxis. Robotaxis will take longer than what they are assuming. This is why they will be off with that prediction.
@@bluetoad2668 I think that there is a good chance of us getting to 500 by the end of 2025. They key for this will be FSD. If FSD evolves quickly in terms of capabilities as Tesla is expecting, we may well see an agreement with other manufacturers and this will surely improve the outlook of the stock. Meanwhile the macro is king. Of course i'm a bear on the eyes of Warren Redlich and other fanboys.
@@ramses4321 P/E will expand so will the stock price with it
Can self drive software become a monopoly and sustain it indefinitely? Provably not. More likely is that whoever gets to fsd first will only have 1-2 year to extract higj margins. After that FSD will most likely be free in the same way Andriod is free
You missed Dojo. +$500B
Tesla will have a 8-10 trillion market cap 2030 without robotaxi but with FSD and a 7,000 share price.
Lee. 363 pps eoy...428 pps mid year 2024.
Full 40 mins of ad?
26k mid to 49k bullish per share
Once autonomy is solved, Tesla won't need all the compute. They will start selling compute services. This alone is a half a trillion market cap. Either than that, robotaxi's and energy. No hopes for real revenue from bots, until the 2050s I estimate. Tesla would need to have a subscription model for the software, and not only one price tag.
If all this pan out (besides bots), I estimate 4-5 trillion market cap
Hi Lee
ok Lee it'll hit $75,000 tell them
Worst case scenario $2600 … best case $8000
GDP and MC is not comparable
I've watched you morph from super bull to super pessimist to now somewhere in the middle! A longer term bullish view based on data we've already seen is where I believe most people fall.
I'd be over the moon with $3k. $30k is pie in the sky.
How much wouid TSLA be worth if they don't solve FSD ?
about 660 dollar 2027.
No doubt that they will solve FSD. Some day…. But don’t hold your breath.
And they will sell FSD, but to about 10k-20k users. Just like robotaxis. They will roam the streets. On Mars.
🤣🤣🤣🤪🤪🤡🤡
@@gooldii1 Love your arguments 😂
@@pauld3327 you are just trolling.
Look at your Account.
First let it reach its max this year
In my mind the promise of robotaxi and the notion of abandoning my privately owned vehicle is possibly realized only when robotaxis are entirely ubiquitous (and respond in 10min or less) and an order or two less expensive than anything currently available like Uber and commercial taxis.
Elon is predicting 10k share price on the back of robotaxi by 2030.
A robotaxi operated by Tesla will replace 2-3 drivers per car. So $40-50k per taxi per year net should be easy.
As volume increases prices can be dropped.
The 25k car at 10million per year will help.
Robots are now easy after the succès of V12. 100% AI learning from video.
Elon not predicting anything. All he’s said is if every product line it out there at maximum potential then anything is possible. Of course that’s true but has been taken way out of context by hyper bulls. Reality doesn’t work like that - some things will go well, some won’t.
Elon said 10T market cap easy
Correct, which would be just over 3K per share. Doable by 2030 imo
@@jbenny9851 my base case is $6000
Delirious.
How much would a Tesla share be priced at today if it had never been split, like a share of Oracle of Omaha?
Believe Elon said 10 Trillion company!
Here is an idea for Elon - along with all his planning, wild moods and intervention in the Russia-Ukraine war he peels back the hyperbole and join the rest of us. We will still think he's very bright but have more conviction in the future of Tesla. Right now, he looks like a kept man by Moscow and Beijing - one that is also a visionary. A very weird combination.
Umm… think about the real world here. Even $3,000 is a massive stretch in comparison with the total value of the stock market. You can do spreadsheet projections all you like but it’s a fantasy. Lee has this right, projections aren’t reality. Just stay in for the long term and if we ever hit $1,000 I for one will be very happy.
Many wont be happy
AAPL
Cant even get back to 300 let alone in your dreams at 30,000
Google is 3.4T$ market cap vs Tesla at 880B$. Where are the Google robots? Where are the Google cars? Sure, Tesla doesn't have ads (to a fault), but they have cars. And a lithium refinery on the way. When that kicks in, the battery mega packs will grow enormously. The mega packs will outstrip everything. That alone will add a couple T$ to the cap. It's poised to go to 4T$ soon and maybe another 5T$ on top of that in the next 10 years. 10x is not an unreasonable expectation given about 10 years. Though they have more than a few other areas they will sneak out product we may not realize is just around the corner. The ExaPod product will be available for services. Optimus will do things. That's not even in the 9T$ I mentioned above. If you replace labor in a labor based economy, what is that worth?
🥇?
I think we know which youtuber hes talking about😂
Why wont tsla go to $ 100.000 ?
Most of the gains are made in the PAST f……..s
biggest joke of the decade -some one talks about 5 years or 10 years stock val -its shit thing - talk about how company survives and show profit under macros
Gordon, is that you?
@@richardalexander5758No Gordon has better grammar!
It would be great already if Tesla could even reach $1000 a share by the end of this decade. $30,000 is just wishful thinking.
That's a lame return
@@summerbreeze5115 the best return might have already over for Tesla. The stock value has jumped 200x in a decade or so already. Another 4x or 5x would make Tesla a huge elephant with associated issues.
@@dhui777 tesla won't be a single company
They'll spilt....each one would be multi trillion dollar company
@@summerbreeze5115 I don’t see how Tesla can split into multiple companies with each having Trillion market cap. Solar business is not going to be a trillion dollar company. Competition is too much from China. If Tesla loses its software lead, the stock can actually drop a lot from here.
@@dhui777
Tesla energy
Tesla optimus
Tesla motos
Tesla robotaxi & FSD
Each of them will be a Goliath
Have faith & give Tesla time (atleast 15yrs)
I would be fine if it went back to it's previous high... let's get there before we speculate about miracles precipitated via Divine Intervention.
So you had not seen what Musk said to his senior team about the Robotaxi, in the forthcoming Walter Isaacson biography?
What did he say ?
"Same valuation as global GDP, does that sound believable" Always the same lame argument. If bots work as intended, they will be the biggest boost of productivity in history. GDP will be at least an order of magnitude higher than today as there is no limit of human wants & needs and pretty much no limit how many bots you can produce. $30K is a fair valuation for a BULL case.
By 2040
Teslas a great company, but their greatest competitor is China. Can Tesla compete with the jaw dropping fast growing tech and manufacturing of many Chinese companies?
Agreed on the bots. I think people are jumping the gun because Elon is so charismatic.
And Americans are just so gullible.
Trump worked that out years ago.
UNLIKELY
Because some investors are on crack
Elon is paving a way to the X-AI conglomerate.
At some point, I think he will try to merge all of his companies and take Mars for himself, if not Earth itself.
I don’t know if it’s possible, or how it would affect the world’s economy, but in any case, I will have a small share of it!
😂😂😂😂😂
People beliving 30k share price are dum, ignorant
30k is 75 trillion dollar company? ok then
If it reaches 300 $. I will be happy forget the 3000$. F everybody who thinks it’s a lottery it’s never going to happen. F all the TH-camrs who do this as a click bait
F everyone
👎