What Does TSLA have Going for it in 2024?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ม.ค. 2024
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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You will get the usual hate from this video like any other of your videos that don’t ignore all the headwinds TSLA has in the near future. But not from me. I’m all-in on TSLA and I still agree with everything you said. Everything Tesla wants to do is still possible but it’s going f to take 2 or 3 times as long, and we may not pass TSLA’s high for another couple of years. But eventually I think we will. As someone who does not have time to play the market games constantly, I’ll probably just hold. Being a long term optimist is not a bad strategy to take in life, even if that makes me a fool by some people’s standards.
This!
Tesla no moon ;"(
Me sad
@@summerbreeze5115without sadness we could never appreciate happiness.
@@ken-mb5cp wall street cares about 6-12 month future earnings, not 3-5 years. The only thing that has a chance to move the earnings needle in 6-12 months is megapack. Supercharger and battery credits will contribute a little, but nothing significant.
@@ken-mb5cp hmm. I’m not a believer in Elon anymore. Not since he bought Twitter and sold TSLA to keep it running. And he’s only destroyed that platform to the point cthat’s it’s loosing billions every year. Yet, I’m long on TSLA. I believe the stock will really take off if Elon would step down. I guess that's why I find this video honest and intelligent, and why Elon fanboys will be angry after watching it.
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I'm not selling my TSLA before year 2030
Nobody wants Teslas any more.
@@markmiller8903 2 million sold in 23, 10k new CT orders every week... yah, sure "nobody" wants Teslas, lol.
2030 is probably a cult
Thank you. Great as always. I was waiting for this. Tesla tubers interviewing themselves daily became kind of ridiculous.
Well done Lee! This is what we need. reality. Still holding my stock. Long term
I've pretty much stopped watching guys like Randy Kirk, Herbert, and Warren R. They provide a little bit of info, but their over the top optimism and bullishness are borderline delusional. Everything is about to explode on an unsuspecting public, nirvana is right around the corner.
As for this year, the only thing I see moving the earnings needle is megapack, assuming that Lathrop finally ramps.
@@darylfoster7944didn’t forget that obnoxious prick SMR. He’s the worst of all.
This is how they make their youtube money. It's completely biased. They suck up to the cult of Musks and his incel followers. Plus the WSJ put out a story that Musk is a junkie. Not good for tesla. Hahaha
My problem is that Tesla's growth has meant it is a disproportionately large part of my portfolio so I'm considering a partial re balance together with a shift to more dividend and tracker funds as I'm also not far from retirement. It'll be the first time I sell any TSLA
Thank you Lee. I always appreciate your thoughtful and rational analysis.
I needed these videos from Lee back in 2022 when Tesla stock was a good deal at $350+
And less of these when it was down to ~$100. Your videos around that time were a bunch of FUD and shook me out of buying. Thanks for nothing, hence you haven’t gotten any views from me for the past year.
You took financial advice from someone on the internet 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Tesla, and most other stocks, were grossly overpriced in early 2022.
Yet when it was $450 he said it would be printing money in 2023. He sold at the bottom. Glad I didn't follow his lead. He used to say energy would be bigger than car business, but now says "it's just a car company" @@worldtrav72
@@darylfoster7944we know 😂
nobody said it would be easy. Many others have failed spectacularly- Elon has a pretty good track record of making the impossible to be merely late. Lots of logs on the fire that will catch sooner or later. I am a fanboy I admit - but I appreciate you and Gary Black keeping us in check!
Well said.
There should come a point where the many many things that are late cause you to doubt that past performance predicts future performance. There is a disclaimer every investment vehicle has to offer warning you against making that assumption.
Why did you remove your latest vdo sir?
Its was eye opening
Yea, what happened?
@@SEATennis1 i don't know
Why he'd take it down?
@@summerbreeze5115 I didn't see anything wrong with his video but it certainly was his most bearish video on tsla and most negative take on the tsla fanboys. Maybe he just didn't want to deal with the possible backlash.
@@SEATennis1 yeah
Maybe he's afraid of losing his followers & bad comments. But very few of us do appreciate reality checks.
Lee, the video with your intended cuts and emotion was like a real reflection of what it's like to be a TSLA investor. It isn't smooth. Sometimes "perfect" videos give the impression that everything/one is perfect. I actually found the upload to be rather thought provoking for many reasons. Cheers
No headwinds?
What about interest rates?
Honestly, great video. Don’t listen to all of the delusional fanboys who think Tesla will double again in months. We invest in Tesla stock for the 5+ year potential. This year will be rocky as interest rates are still high and macroeconomics remain unstable. I decided to hold some Tesla shares in my Roth and will start selling calls & puts in my trading account this year
The reserve will decrease the interest raye at least 3 times during 2024. That will make a difference for all car manufacturers. Car sales grouth during 2023 was due to the necesity of and aging fleet of cars. That happen on a cyclic basis.
I am always interested in varying analysis of Tesla. After all, it is the most volatile large cap stock. If you believe in the company, in all their lines of business and you believe Elon has the ability to execute, just hold onto your stock and wait for it to skyrocket like it always does, eventually. Patience is a virtue. And, patience will pay off with Tesla.
Back to being bitter, I see. The Model 3 refresh happened last year, in Shanghai, which slowed that production, and Model Y refresh is on the way. And the switch to the refreshed Model 3 is in progress at Fremont. Then V12 is being tested by employees now, and it is a large jump better and is not a beta. The better FSD gets, the higher FSD adoption will be, and that is basically a free $10,000 per adoption profits.
Making battery cells is hard, a slower ramp was always a good bet, but it still is a situation where once Tesla solves the problems the ramp will accelerate quite quickly. No one knows when that will happen, but I remain confident that it will.
Cybertruck production ramp really just depends on 4680 ramp, so even Elon Musk doesn't really know what will happen there, but they are going to ramp as quickly as possible.
As for the $25,000 car, there is little point trying to make it until Tesla has the battery cells, and it will be a car they make millions of a year so it will require massive amounts of cells. It also, I think, is going to wait for Optimus to be available for factory work, so they will not hire many people in Mexico and it will be mostly software engineers working at that factory.
And then several companies are making rapid progress on robots, and I expect Tesla is too. Optimus will replace humans in Tesla factories first, and that will drive down costs and increase margins.
Speaking of margins, Tesla drove down costs of production significantly last year and the refresh for Model 3 in Fremont as well as the Y refresh likely coming soon will further drive down costs.
Yes, Tesla just met their base sales goal last year, but China is an economic disaster right now and while BYD and Li Auto grew sales rapidly, other Chinese EV companies targeting a higher price point, like Tesla is, specifically Nio, failed to meet their goals by a lot. Nio predicted sales of 250,000, and sold 160,000. So there definitely were headwinds.
Tesla continues to do the impossible, late. Okay, Cybertruck was late and maybe it ramps more slowly than we want, it also is a truck no other company has even a slight chance of competing with this decade. And millions of trucks sell every year in America. Tesla will take market share inevitably with the Cybertruck, just a question of how quickly. FSD V12, yes some other companies are doing neural net for their robots already following after Tesla, but no autonomous driving companies are positioned to follow Tesla in FSD. I don't think you are grasping how significant it will be for Tesla even just to allow hands free driving with FSD, let alone for them to have level 5 with no one else on the planet remotely close to that.
Again, does it matter exactly when Tesla achieves mass Cybertruck production, Optimus sales, the $25,000 model, or FSD level 5? They will not have competition. Maybe something this year, maybe not, I just have my money parked waiting because eventually these things will happen.
Also, don't forget that Austin and Berlin are both very far from capacity right now. They don't need to build more factories to ramp production, they need the battery cells.
He's just a wet blanket. He'll never change.
Question: if they would have infinite cells, what would happen?
I never forget TX and Berlin are far below capacity. That plus huge drops in price screams demand problem no matter how much Elon props it up with price cuts.
Enjoyed your comments very much and agree 100%. ThankYou.
@@markeby6985price drops due to more effecient manufacturing is Tesla’s plan as stated in their Mission Statement. Demand is quasi infinite.
Could the increase in car volume be due to a change in the mix - more low priced cars, fewer high priced cars
I’m still a long term bull, but I agree with Lee. Probably a lot of paint to come in 2024, sans an unexpected breakthrough
How about the semi?
Fake product it seems.
Thank you for your sobering comments.. food for thought.
Excellent job Lee. Well said for the many many investors who totally agree with you.
Why did you present the subsidies as a percentage of profits rather than as a percentage of revenues?
Why not? They’re both.
@@singed8853 profits are a tiny fraction of revenues, so if you present subsidies as a percentage of profits, Tesla's obviously going to look like they live on sobsidies.
I think subsidies should be treated as just another source of revenue, and therefore should be presented as a % of revenue. Consequently, subsidies also don't take such an outsized portion of revenues.
I’ll be trading in out of the stock as well As Lee indicated , I’ve been waiting for 2022, 2023, 2024 now they’re talking about 2030 I can’t wait that long, and as far as the big percentage in climb of the stock this year, it also dropped two or 300% since it’s high so that gain is negated by the loss.
Good video, Lee. Thanks for reminding us of the risk factors at play.
So this is what it sounds like outside of the usual Tesla echo chamber! How refreshing to not hear the same 5 people bullishly interviewing each other on a daily basis. Good work Lee.
This video made me dig a little deeper into my own convictions. I do think you missed that the stock price is most affected by the institutional investors who are turning from a bonds cycle to a stock cycle where they’ll likely allocate a disproportionate amount to the mag 7, especially TSLA as the competition from legacy is pulling back while Tesla is still setting records, even though they are short compared to their promises. That’s what really moves the stock price
I’ll be happy with:
2.2 millions deliveries
Clear dojo progress
Notable advertising push
Exponential 4680 progress
Exponential storage growth
Giga Mexico production start by Q2 start
1-2 gigas announced
Not sure if I want gen 3 announced unless it happens end of December for a January production start out of Texas
Exactly, this is fine and all very exciting to follow - plus there will be plenty of V12 and Optimus updates throughout the year and potentially breakthroughs. The Tesla bulls get overly carried away but I think Lee is going too far in the other direction in this one.
Giga mexico produxction in 2 months?🤨🤨
Tough audience tonight… It’s great to hear different opinions about the future of the stock. It helps me with my own thinking, and if it’s different from yours, so be it.
I don’t think it would be wise to try to buy in and out of TSA, it’s simply too volatile to time that correctly. I agree with a lot of what you said in this video, however, I think the biggest thing that you missed is how Elon said they were taking 2023 to make sure they can grow to “massive scale.” For a while, I wondered what exactly that meant. At this point in time, I think that means they’ve been working hard on the production line for their next gen vehicle, as Elon has said, in which case, a lot of the uncertainty can kind of just blow away. If they do the next gen vehicle release this year a lot of us investors will feel much better about things going forward.
What would make a bigger splash, Apple Vision Pro or Tesla Model 2?
Model 2! 💯
Tesla Model 2, I think. Even though I will buy a Vision Pro(orders begin 1/19/24) I think the initial price will limit it to early adopters, like the Tesla Model S. Model 2 will address pentup demand if the price point is met.
Agreed. You can’t time this. Tesla goes up and down on every Elon tweet or FUD story like this recent drug one.
Like Lee I am also heavily considering selling up to 33% to even 66% of my stock if it hits higher levels. A back to 225 or even below 200 seems very plausible in the coming year.
I catch myself looking at the stock at daily basis, and after 4 years of not taking any profits, I feel like I should use the volotily a tiny bit
What have you not included in your estimation: FSD, Tesla bot, Semi. Breakthrough in batteries. Fast charging. To name a few.
Because none of those will have any impact on 2024
@@sava411, In my model expectations of the valuation in 2025 will have impact on the valuation in 2024. "Expected future earnings".
@@guusvandermeulen7210 Most of the things you mentioned (fsd, tesla bot, battery breakthrough) cannot be placed in “expected future earnings” because we dont know if tesla will succeed in delivering those products or how long it will take. The video is called “what does tesla have going for it in 2024” not “what does tesla maybe have going for it in the next 2-5 years”.
@@sava411 thanks for your explanation.
Agree for the most part, but one thing I think you're under-valuing is the possibility that V12 is the architecture that actually allows FSD to work. Given that FSD is 100% margin, small increases in take rate can have a huge effect on earnings. And if Tesla shows that the take rate on FSD is increasing materially, the market will have to adjust it's probabilities that FSD will be solved, which could massively affect the valuation. This is why I would recommend not trading in and out of the stock... you could miss a massive run at any moment.
FSD has been distributed to 15,000 employees. AI learns fast.
@@EnriqueThielelearns what fast? Learns how to get spacecrafts to other galaxies?
I don’t understand the 100% margin statement. Are you saying they have spent zero money to develop FSD?
Robotaxis won’t be happening. The ‘new architecture’ is just another way to keep the carrot on the stick.
Ever hear of the concept of stringing people along? I hope that by the time we still have no robotaxis product 5 years from now that you wake up from these lies. And that you aren’t sat there hopeful for the newest miracle method that they have implemented.
Ok, so what is the target for miles between critical disengagements that you believe is needed to "solve FSD"?
And where is that number today?
when automakers talk about demand I wonder whether this is code for low margins, and a reason for reducing supply so there's a higher premium. That to ramp a new platform margins have to be there early in the ramp.
I hope it dips and dips and dips and dips I just wanna buy cheap shares. I just bought a MY LR and let me just say FSD is NOT ready for prime time but it is in beta. That being said the car is freaking AMAZING I love it!
On target, as usual. Thanks
Great balance sheet and string growing divisions
Disagree on the effects of interest rates on vehicle sales. 15M 2023 sales in US are a bit inflated as ~1M of 2023 non-Tesla sales are sitting on dealers lot as inventory.
One of the best videos you made. I have 2834 Tesla shares since the end of 2019 and have not sold a single one. We all need a dose of reality. The fan boys are all over with crazy predictions just like Elon's. Elon prediction that FSD would be ready by the end of 2023 when it was clear to me that it would not be the case, drove me nuts.
He has been saying this same thing for over half a decade now. He’s not credible particularly when you consider his wealth has been tied to the stock price of Tesla.
Talk is cheap and that’s all his hype is.
Lee, you did not mention Tesla's competition or lack thereof except for BYD. Could it be that more EV buyers will gravitate to Tesla as they see the competitors (GM, Ford, VW, etc.) suffer production brownouts and so spur Tesla sales?
They'll gravitate to whomever can build cars and for now that's the Chinese companies
@@DanielASchaeffer I hear you, however, BYD (a Chinese company) is not selling cars in the US and is having a hell of a time selling them into Europe (buyers don't want them AND the governments are imposing tariffs). That leaves most of the field open to Tesla. The Model Y is the best selling car in the world for a good reason. It is the best value in the EV space.
@@johnfruhEuropeans do buy Chinese cars, but not obvious Chinese brands. For example they do buy a lot of MG, which used to be British, but is Chinese now - BYD not so much, NIO not so much. Tesla Model 3 (made in China) seems to be doing ok (and is perceived as better quality than US made Tesla models), but it is not perceived as a Chinese car. The Dacia Spring is doing fine, because it's cheap (Czech brand under VW, but manufactured by DongFeng in China).
It's a perception problem. Chinese will figure out that they need a not-Chinese brand or wait a decade until consumer swallow their pride.
@@Martinit0 Could it be that there is a lack of European dealers for Chinese cars? Where would people go for service?
No headwinds?? What about record high interest rates? No growth in Energy?? Demonstrably untrue.
How did that slow down production?
Check the energy deployed in q1 compared to q3. I don’t call that growth.
WHat record high interest rates? You must be very young.
I am pretty sure they will increase sales by more than 25% which will get them past 2,250,000. Like you said it is all about batteries. The number could be much higher.
Adding many new factory lines for 4680 batteries is exciting for shareholders.
Well i agree with lost you said but X is doing quite well actually. I highly doubt Elon would have to sell shares for X.
Bear flag forming on the stock price, selling cars is an emotive and extremely competitive bizz. Agree with you Lee, next 2 years rocky. Timing trades also very risky, most punters lose their stash. Long term the Elon genius will shine through, but basic important factors like service, follow up and customer care are alpha/omega in the car bizz…… and a serious spike in interest rates will rock or wreck the boat. BYD now in the fray and having a Tesla factory in China increases vulnerability if WW3 erupts. Not the best climate for success. Ps here in Norway, {largest EV fleet in Europe}, we have had inland temperatures around -30 C or below for several weeks this winter. Range can be halved at those temperatures for nearly all EV’s making one think very carefully about long distance drives. 😮. Dollar cost averaging in to Tesla stock probably the best strategy for the longterm gain.
Very reasonable analysis
"Confirmation bias produces dopamine" - great summise of many channels producing tesla content. I still go there for my dopamine hits though 😜
Thanks Lee, the only realistic Tesla Influencer.
Lee I have watched your content for years. I've watched your excitement turn to frustration. I've watched some of your fanbase turn on you and (don't take this the wrong way) I've watched you kinda turn on some of your fanbase. I think its good you tell your perspective. I've watched you get things right that most of the other Teslatubers got wrong. Anyways just letting you know I see you bro.
I’m glad he has a sense of self worth and pride in what he’s doing. That he won’t heel to whatever his audience might want to hear.
Thanks for the accurate analysis, it's good to hear your voice.
Keep it up we need your voice so much!! Thanks Lee. Facts matter
I agree. I'm telling people not to expect much this year in terms of increased production, new models, or stock growth. And I'm what most people would call a fan boy. Unless FSD is solved or Optimus goes into production or some other thing they have brewing gets announced. Progress is painfully slow. I'm hoping the "Model 2" will go into mass production in `25 though. And Semi and CT will hit mass production by the end of `25. And I'm betting FSD will be solved maybe by the end of this year or early `25 as well. Optimus will probably go into mass production next year as well. So I have high hopes for next year and `26. But I yeah, `24 might be a little sleepy.
And long may it remain sleepy. I like gobbling up more shares at this price. :)
@@user-qh9lu5cl6nhappy for you, but not good for me and many who worked hard for many years and invested in Tesla. May not be alive 2030??
It's refreshing to see a Tesla channel being honest about Tesla. Props to you Lee.
GM Lee, it's great to see you are back
Lee thank you for your honest opinion.
Hell ya! A New years perfectly timed heel turn gets my juices flowing.
You missed that it looks like interest rates will come down this year, FSD 12 looks like it was released to employees, presumably it will come to customer cars this year. Those are two obvious ones, Juniper and Highland production savings + rate cuts would get you there. Separately, there’s a bunch in the pipeline. Who knows, maybe we get robotaxi this year
Agree. Tesla has enormous potential. Long term holders will benefit.
@5:32 ish: uh? Tesla moved plans for initial gen three line to Austin because he needed it where the engineers are and because Mex plant would be too long setting up. This speeds up the gen3 introduction, not slows it down. Mexico plant, supply chain, etc will be in place in time to contribute to production in 2025 or, at worse, 2026. Yes, I’m a fanboy, and I like for the stock to rise, but I’ve literally zero expectation of that in the near term, and the longer it stays low or occasionally dips, let’s more investors buy more.
Thank you for throwing some cold water on the situation with facts about Tesla's situation. It's disappointing news, but it's not so bad that investors that don't have a short horizon should dump the stock. I wondered if Elon would sell stock in 2024 and just how much that would effect the stock price. Maybe you could do a video on that in the future.
4680 has certainly been a much larger challenge. Achieving reliability, yield, power density and cost reduction goals... Has not happened yet. The latest version: Cybercell is so far apparently on par with 2170 for Power density. Only one of 2 electrodes using dry process. Appears yield has improved, but from very poor initial levels, so possibly not yet satisfactory from a cost perspective. The 50% cost reduction along with increased range and charging speed goals seem to be fairly far from current actual results. Obviously making 4680 work as battery day goals and targets. Would be a huge enabler for Semi, Cybertruck and possibly next gen vehicle. Meanwhile hard to see truly disruptive change to the automotive business at Tesla.
If Tesla are not able to meet increased EV adoption in the US and Europe then who will? Almost certainly not BYD-based on current performance in Europe and resistance to purchasing Chinese cars in the US. Build in Legacy Auto retrenchment in EVs supply/demand economics should force prices up...or have I missed something Lee?
There is a tariff in the US that BYD has to deal with.
In the meanwhile hybrids appear to have renewed popularity from people interested in EV’s. That’s a challenge for Tesla.
I respected your opinions until you panic-sold your dad's retirement acct. in Jan. 2023 at the bottom at around $110 a share. What a huge mistake. I was loading up at that level. I dollar cost average (DCA) around $1k every month. If there's a pullback under $200, I'll buy more shares. The next year the stock will be volatile. I'm not selling a share before 2030 so I'm not worried. No one is smart enough to time Tesla and trade in and out. Smarter to DCA and buy the dips and hold.
He has not said but I believe Lee sold at the bottom because he had to since he was highly leveraged with margin loans based on his very optimistic viewpoint of where Tesla was heading in the short to medium term. He like we all did not anticipate the dramatic fall in the stock to 1/4 of it's recent high.
Dang, that’s some important context. I do remember Lee was leveraging and I would feel the same way he does but that shouldn’t make him or anyone else overcorrect to the overly pessimistic. The reality is that 2024 could be a wild ride, especially if FSD is great, rates come down - prices presumably go up, market turn from bonds to stock, Elon needs the stock to be high this year bc he is scheduled to sell, robotaxi could start this year, energy business is becoming material, Optimus starts doing useful things in the factory, groc does something useful, X or Twitter stabilizes due to presidential elections coming up, cost savings from highland and juniper, cheaper battery material costs, slow down in legacy-auto electric car production, halo effect of cybertruck, maybe the first FSD licensing deal, insurance expansion, supercharger network income, and auto bidder ramping up in TX, Cali, Australia. Probably missed some.
@@howardrodack6191Lee shouldn’t have gambled using leverage. What a moron!
We need ur voice, keep going
Lee- love your rational analysis- Tesla’s in the 3rd inning and has a cery bright future; im content to not sell a single share until 2030; and then, maybe only sell 3/4 😎😎😎
Lee, level headed as usual. It will be interesting to hear what Tesla state for this years guidance.
However, I think like you, that margins will be under pressure this year, particularly with Shanghai Megapack factory & Mexico factories likely to break ground and consume cash, as well as the CT line ramping up which will also consume cash. Then of course there's all the R&D money on FSD & Optimus. As always the stock price could do anything.
Thank you for the great chat !! I'm not going to try to pretend I know when to buy in/out of the dips; still planning to hold till 2027 at least at this point.
I love Tesla but think this is pretty accurate. I do plan on buying a new P3 when they release it this year, but I wouldn’t recommend holding Tesla through an election year without a big catalyst. I think 2025 will be a big rebound.
We must also take into account the present on going media campaign against all things connected to Elon Musk.
@@learnerchris Elon loves the attention. The media is giving him what he wants. If the media ignores him, he'll do something more drastic to get their attention again.
4680 battery cell production is a big question mark, I'll agree with you on that Lee
Lee's gone full on bear again. Quick, buy the stock!
Happy New Year LEE!
Isn’t Tesla licensing CATL tech and building an LFP battery factory in Texas?
That would be news to me. Gotion just started production from a factory in Fremont
Good luck trading!
Lee going on the offensive against the echo chamber with some truth. As much as the community doesn't want to hearit, this take is absolutely needed to balance out our bias
Have you thought about reintroducing your visuals like you did in your old videos? I noticed your growth stagnated when you changed to just your face.. Maybe a blend of the two?
Visuals please
YES. Staring at someone’s face for an entire clip is disconcerting. I actually stopped watching when the interesting backgrounds ended. At a minimum would close the iPad and listen in after going to another room, tolerable. Reminds me of getting trapped in a small room with a lecturing ex girlfriend. Good voice when used in conjunction with changing backgrounds. What caused me to subscribe in the first place…. Interesting storytelling.
Welcome back Lee!!
The headwinds were interest rates. Hopefully interest rates will fall this year and we'll have tailwinds.
Now the Q4 results are out and they are extremely disappointing. As a shareholder I am curious if Elon would consider a round of cost cutting to maintain the profit margin. Institute a lay off to trim the extra fat, replace current products with more economical design and material. Hike the fees for the use of superchargers. I think there is a lot of room to streamline and reduce the number of service centers, as they are mostly cost centers that do not bring in any revenue.
Excellent article. you are the only you tuber who sys it as it is. Looking forward to your analysis of the full 2023 year. The only way to make money out of tesla in 2024 is by trading the volitility
Cool, I have some more time to accumulate more shares.
Have you checked Model 3 used prices lately? Why would you buy a $25k new cheaper less valuable Tesla now?
When you're solving some of the hardest technical problems which have never been done before, sometimes you hit a wall and have to change direction. We have seen this with fsd , 4680. But this will be solved in time. There is massive demand for the compact and I would urge tesla to get on with Mexico etc.
There will never be Tesla ‘robotaxis’ in my view. I think the project is going nowhere fast.
@@singed8853 fsd v12.1 says otherwise.
im about to pull the trigger on a 10k investment in tesla "not investment advice" and all that but is now a bad time?
Long term?
like 20 years @@jameswoll
@@jorgenjohnson2168it was a bad time and probably still is.
Tesla doesn’t have service center in each city. In my town only one super charging station available. People are concerned about mechanical problems and nobody to talk to if they have car problems.
Thanks Lee for providing a balance to some of the hysteria out there, imo once they crack FSD it will kick start the real demand that is currently only potential.
Hey Lee! Good to see your back!
Heh. Do you realize that your use of the wrong you're/your means that your statement says exactly the opposite of what you intended to say? "It's good to see the back of you, Lee! It means you're heading away from me."
@@eyesuckle Thank for your useless comment. Out of all of the great things and information about Tesla this is important? An error in my spelling? How boring is your life? You’ve already answered in your useless statement. Not much going on in your life? You’re right! Go crawl back under your rock 🪨.
Good counter to SMR. Well targeted and very subtle. Full props for this video. I’m still going to hold on to my shares and buy more if I get free cash. When FSD is solved, the price will skyrocket.
After spending £55k on a Model 3 Performance in 2019 I’m just not confident in promoting the car to others due to the substandard quality of the ride, build and the service offering. Servicing is efficient but that’s useless if they don’t resolve issues and fob you off as saying that’s just how it is. I regret buying my Tesla in 2019, I sincerely hope they improve build and service quality as it’s got great performance and tech.
I had a Model 3P form 2020 - and now own a Model YP (Berlin) and a Model 3 LR 2022 and I can tell they are much better cars than 2019
I need another 650 shares to reach my 2,000 target so I happy to see the share price float somewhere around the 200-250 level. I think seeing the CT driving around, especially with a lot being wrapped will be free advertising. If 2024 are all foundation models Tesla might even break even. I´m sure there are enough people willing to pay $20,000 extra to get a car earlier and the biggest option is FSD which is just software.
They have doubled the 4680 production line to two, adding 2 more in Texas first half of 2024 and 4 more second half to get 8. 8 lines with 2 shifts each should ramp up batteries.
I don´t think Mexico will be the 2nd Gen 3 production line. I hear Tesla got permission for phase 3 Shanghai they have enough info to build the building, power etc is already there. Once gen 3 production is proven in Texas at a decent speed they can fast track production lines in Shanghai. Then start building factories in Mexico and Berlin. Demand for compacts will be higher in Europe and China/ Asia, not so much the US.
I think production will be around 2.2m to 2.3m, no change in Fremont, I think Shanghai will squeeze and extra 140,000 model 3 & Y, CT I have 100,000, Austin and Berlin maybe an extra 160,000 model Y. Berlin only runs 2 shifts due toovertime costs, if demand is there Tesla could add another shift. I think a lot of analysts only looking for 2.1m Maybe in the next earnings Tesla could low ball it at 2.1m thats 17% growth 2.2m is 22% growth.
I don´t model anything for FSD or Robots. I actually think Robots will come first, getting permission for FSD could take a long time. Especially after what happened to Cruise.
God dammit I can respect the perspective
Thank you for telling us the truth.
Thanks Lee, absolutely hilarious episode, though slightly galling as an investor! Really good to hear a more realistic summary of the state of Tesla right now. Elon is, what we would call, a fecking berk 😂
i think you are severely discounting the teslabot upside. but i think that's your point. the carrot was cars+energy then it was halo truck then it was v12. the bot is really the only upside still left standing. we need to lower our expectations. solid q4 sales in china is good.
I will be shocked if the bot amounts to anything in the next 5 years. And I consider fsd toast - permanently.
Tanks for true words! ❤
The problem I have with this sort of analysis is that there's no accountability. If you are wrong you you'll continue attempting to be a 'realist' and giving bleak outlooks like this like nothing happened. At one point you were so on point with all your predictions but overtime you have only become more of a pessimist, selling out of Tesla multiple times only to find out you were wrong.
here we go again
If they fail FSD & Optimus bot
I'm all out
How would you know if they fail? Elon can keep pushing the dates back and back further into the future. As long as he keeps the hope alive, the investors will stay, while he unloads his shares.
@@walden6272 by 2027 so many things would be clear.
If I'm not convinced
I'll go all in on BTC
@@walden6272exactly. It’s just stringing investors along. They aren’t delivering and at some point you need to stop believing Elon’s sweet little words about how this stuff is around the corner. He’s a conman.
Like the other poster indicated you probably want to have a date in mind. Tesla and Elon aren’t going to tell you these projects have failed anytime soon. Those two projects help give Tesla a tech stock multiple.
That's why I follow good people
Larry Goldberg, Tesla Economist,etc
I think Elon will deliver eventually. He has a very good track record.
You must understand that the US dollar is at just over half of its previous value and more and more people (myself included) are waiting for any purchases unless they have absolutely no choice but to get a new or newer vehicle. My daily driver is 13 years old and will be gifted to my son when he gets his license, by then my wife's vehicle will be paid off and inflation might be back down to "normal". If we somehow avoid WW3 I will be one of the 2.4 million this year or next no adverts required.
I must say all the tesla channels i follow at least ,acknowledge the headwinds that come with innovation, macro and fud. Looking at vision, innovatiin and execution it would take a lot for twsla not to succeed on their mission.
I should have taken profits back in 2021. Next time it goes up to around 350 I’m taking profits
Tesla investment advice from TE is like family therapy from the Menendez brothers.
One passing comment at the very end about Optimus. That saw a dramatic improvement in 2023 and real potential for 2024.
My gut says that Optimus is really in the early prototype stage. Talk to me about it when there are more than 500 operating at the same time.
Good luck with that.
Lee, I thought you learned your lesson when you sold low at nearly 100 and DCA’d back at a huge loss. My question is are you bitter? After your poor recent decisions you’re still thinking that you are smarter than the rest? That you can outsmart everyone by trading rather than investing? You’re pointing at others as emotional with some ironic bitterness. I appreciate your insight as a part of the investment picture. Good luck
Yea I got the SP wrong, but everything I predicted happened.
It’s sad that you don’t seem to care about the substance of what Lee said. You’re instead in fanboy tribal mode.
This video was well reasoned and insightful.
20,000,000 🔋 (4680) produced....
pretty scathing analysis. you got a number of fair points, but i do think you are overshooting some on the pessimistic end of the spectrum. there is a lot going on with tesla in the background, that might begin to come to fruition in 2024. fsd, optimus, energy, model 2, dojo etc. yes, current revenues come mostly from auto business, but tesla is fast becoming an a.i. company. the stock has been treading water for 3 years but so has the s&p 500 for the past 2 years. with falling interest rates this year and a.i. business maturing i think there might be sufficient fundamentals to fuel a run for tesla stock this year. my guess is 2024 will be a break out year for the stock.
I value a balance of opinions, but I'm not keen on sarcastic negativity combined with a determined blindness to the progress being made.
Lee - you're apparently still beating yourself up over your massive panic sell, and taking it out on others. Try to find peace with that - it is clouding your judgement. You smugly claim to be bringing truth to the "fanbois", but it doesn't look that way from outside your head. Next time you post like this, I'll probably unsubscribe.
Sorry to hear that, but what did I get wrong? I truly value feedback and bouncing ideas from this community.
Yes, this guy should get off YT. His own misguided trading has cost him and he’s lost all objectivity. Just Tslaq snark.
I think he is saying what other channels would never. There is potential but also big chance of failure, and lately there have been significant signs of failure as well.
@@thordang5124 there’s no need to be like that.
What he said in this video is factual and his opinion is well reasoned and sound. The video is insightful and well stated. You can go call him smug and negative and you can say you will unsubscribe. He apparently has integrity and won’t say happy thoughts and positive spin just to please you.
Lee brings some cold water to all the fanboism around... But I think Lee misses the Optimus opportunity
Optimus won't be relevant financially until next decade. This decade its all about the car/software and energy business and Lee is right. Tesla is falling behind and haven't really reached significant milestones lately. I don't know if it's because Elon is so far up his rear in regards to X that he left Tesla hanging.
Elon himself said "maybe some Optimus sales in 2025 but difficult to predict", so we know it's not going to be 2025. They haven't even reached the MVP stage yet, so no point in planning production at this point.