What is Going on with Tesla?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ม.ค. 2024
- Tesla Stock Analyst Tool
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
#tesla, #tsla, #teslaStock - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
Keep doing what you are doing Lee.
You need to change your channel name to
"The Tesla Realist".
The Tesla Gloomist more like
@@Cybertruck1000 Tesla Victim of Hype is better.
Lee is just keeping it real!
"The Tesla clown" is better
Wisdom comes from counsel of people....
Bought another hundred shares last week!!
Well done . That will age well 😂
@@simonsays911 well it has aged very well thank you for your concern. Most of my shares were bought between 2013-14. Last week was like Jan of last year the capitulation was so intense I was compelled to buy more.
Me too💪
Me 60.
Me too ✋
This was an incredibly good perspective on Tesla and it's stock. Two thumbs up. I'm a Tesla bull that drank the koolaid (on the "accelerated" timelines) in the beginning (2020) but I, too, am now approaching things with a more reasonable and logical outlook
We all need reality checks.
I've done very well on TSLA and expect to in the future, not necessarily this yr or next tho.
I have FSD 11.9 in my car. It does drive me everywhere intervention free day after day in all kinds of weather and traffic. I live on the east coast of the USA far away from San Francisco. I drive in rural , city and town eviroments including New York City, Maybe my experience is unique but the car acts like a robo taxi for me. To me its ready to be used in limited enviroments as a robo taxi. The human drivers I deal with every day are for more dangerous and liable to cause more accidents than Tesla driving itself, and they do. Last week a pedestrian was killed at dusk by a drunk driver on a street in a local town 20 miles from where i live. He fled teh accident scen but was later apprehended. If you want to understand FSD you really need it in your own car and you need to get accostomed to it. It will not take risks like the average humabn driverand this puts people off. all people are impatient and distracted when driving. As the car does not drive in thsi impatient confrontational manner people think its not drivin properly.
So before commenting on this sysytem please gather your own data over a long period of at least 6-12 months to fully understand FSD driven in different enviroments.
I had my doubt when you said your Tesla FSD drives you everywhere intervention free. Then you said that includes New York City, at that moment, I figured out you are just completely brain dead. Maybe you should watch one out of hundreds of videos posted by your fellow cultists trying out FSD in NYC.
Just move on, you were wrong, you never really cared about the goals Tesla is trying to achieve just the stock price and your return... sell it all, its just embarrassing now
You should sell it all if you don’t like owning stocks that Tesla economist owns. He’s not going to take investment requests from you.
Everything you said is conjured up out of nothing. Where are you getting any of this from?
He’s getting it from Lee’s past 3 years of videos and wild cash flow forecasts…
Lee, you are the only Tesla TH-camr out there that has the balls to say it how it is. Like you, I’m a Tesla owner who can’t understand why the demand for the cars is not 10 times as much as it is today. This video and the last one are super important for any tsla investor to watch. I sold all my shares at 220 and I’m holding for now as I reevaluate my long term thesis on tsla.
It because the model 3 is an old and boring design now and the model y is ugly…
smart - you got out at the right time.. i bought at 400 and want to get out but would prefer to get out at a higher price..
Just look at the cost of goods sold. The average cost to make a Tesla (This includes every model and delivery like S?X, Cybertruck etc) is under 36.2k in Q4 2023 compared to over 39.5k in Q4 2022. This is with inflation. That is an 8.3% decrease in cost of goods sold!!!
Yes, but a lot of that was the USD weakening.
@@TeslaEconomistand further, that has done nothing compared to the effect of price cuts. How Tesla increases volumes massively, and in a sustained way, with amazing margins, while not adopting a new strategy - like advertising/educating is unknown. The team have not given us a roadmap to increased volume at decent margins on a (any) timeline.
This is a problem.
Lee I like your takes. I don't always see eye to eye with you but thats life.
Hi Lee ,
Found you on TH-cam years ago back when you were drinking the same tesla juice I still am today. I still enjoy your views and it’s interesting to see how you are evolving on all things Tesla in time . I do search TH-cam, x and others to get as broader grasp on ALL points of view on tesla.
I can’t find one negative response to anything you are saying here . Other than the real nasty posts it would be informative to get some of the views of people who disagree with aspects of what you think.
Thanks for sharing it does make one reconsider / ponder all the possibilities for the company a lot of us really want to succeed further. 👍
Lee, Thanks for your unbiased views on Tesla.
I agree with you that the 4680 ramp has been the nemesis of both product and production growth. However, I remain long on Tesla and as with many of their promises, they get there, but perhaps not on the time frame promised. I think the 4680 ramp will get there, and who knows, maybe it's the wrong form factor and/or chemistry, but Tesla is nimble enough to pivot should that be needed just as they are "covering their bet with Dojo", by purchasing other chips. Keep the sanity checks coming, because the Tesla community needs it, but for now, I'm still in.
I greatly appreciate you
Psychology might be useful for short term Tesla shares trading, basically gambling. Macro, economy, finances have an impact and can be impossible to predict, so don't. What really matters is technology, the power of the world is in the top technology companies. Having confidence in a company like Tesla comes from understanding really well the technology they are developing and the competition. For example, when you understand Transformer Neural Networks, the occupancy network and Neural Radiance Fields you know that FSD really doesn't require LiDAR, the problem of knowing the 3D world around you has been solved with just vision. If you go deeper on how FSD V12 works, you'll understand that if you can train it for one city, you can train it for any city in the world. It would be a mistake to train for all of them at the beginning while you're tweaking the system itself. It's not geo-fenced, if you think that it shows a lack of understanding. There are Teslas all over the US, Europe and China, not just in San Francisco. The same amount of videos used for training FSD for San Francisco will be available for training in those other locations. You can extrapolate from understanding how FSD works to understanding that Optimus will evolve at a much faster speed both developing, training, trialing, manufacturing, providing as a service to others etc. Ignoring everything else, ignoring Elon, ignoring macro, ignoring interest rates, it's understanding the technology and how fast it's evolving that really matters, it makes it very clear to me that FSD will happen ( I would already pay for it if V12 Beta was available in the UK ), Optimus will happen a lot quicker than predicted going from a Human dancing a couple of years ago to being deployed and useful in a factory environment in 2025. Megapacks are increasing at an incredible rate quarter over quarter if you look at the reported numbers properly ( the fact that they are deferred profits makes it an extra step to actually see it ). The amount of factories Tesla is building ( or about to start ) is crazy compared to any other company, all paid by itself, no loans. Throughout 2024, the continuation of the FSD, Optimus, Compact car plans will become more and more palpable and FOMO will cause the share price to go up in anticipation of an amazing 2025 with the P/E ratio also going up to over 100. This is not wishful thinking, this is my conviction based on being very interested and studying deeply certain technologies that overlap with Tesla. Things are what they are, both on the negative side and the positive side, reality and facts should be accepted even ( or specially ) when they are positive. Most people tend to believe they should face the negative facts of life and miss out on the positives that are even more important. I think you're suffering from FOD ( Fear Of Disappointment ). Maybe your negative view comes from losing money investing in Tesla which would be very understandable. I think your view would be a lot more realistic if you studied the Tesla technological innovations deeply and how far ahead they are from the competition.
The best comment here in this thread! Thank you!❤
The reality of Tesla’s future is midway between Gordon Johnson’s and Steven Mark Ryan’s assessments, which makes them both class clowns. Thanks Lee.
I think the reality right now is much closer to GOJO surprisingly... Elon has really lost focus on TSLA and it's showing.. He thought the economy would crater and that he could use that as an excuse for bad sales.. but it didn't happen and now he just has egg on his face though none of the fanbois ever call him out on it..
Toyota market cap is 311 Billion which is around $100 for Tesla - I think that is a fair valuation considering EVs are obviously the future and toyota is unlikely to grow much..
A Lee Nice video Are you shorting the stock?
I appreciate what you are doing! Keep it going!
I am still holding for now but i am extremely thankfull to Lee for his views. I honestly came very close to temporarily getting out of Tesla right after I watched Lee's last video and now wish I had done so. Thanks again Lee, you are a voice of reason amongst the SMRs of the Tesla scene.
Always great insights and help keep us grounded. Thx!
A good view on the current board setting. Thank you for that.
Thank you Lee! We all need this kind of perspective.
Damn good video, Lee! You so eloquently put into words everything I have been feeling for quite some time now. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t! That’s pretty much it in a nutshell if you’re a longterm holder of this stock.
You seem distraught. You say its painful. I would suggest accumulating shares only when they fall near 52 wk lows and then forgettaboutit.
You seem to be upset when the stock falls hard. Me I'm hoping shares fall sub $150.
I saw this same kind of reaction many times with Amazon. Always innovating and building for the future. Forgoing profits.
Wall St was clueless... as they are with Tesla.
I used to think you were too bullish but certainly agree with your current assessment, as an early investor from 2018 who has taken profits time to time, I am trying to cut down another 50% of my position succeeded selling 20% in the last rally and looking for a future rally to sell further, I understand your feeling
I think you have a smart strategy to reduce your exposure. I am trying to do the same
The Model Y launched early but my early production purchase is filled with bugs. They should have taken the time to get it right. My Model Y has a very jarring stiff suspension that was corrected in later versions. For this reason, I won't purchase the Cybertruck until at least a year has gone by in production.
I appreciate your analysis, even though on rare occasions I disagree with it. Love the subtle shots you and SMR fire at each other. Great videos!
You are correct, stock is psychology. Building multiple competitive winning teams in the current challenging global environment (Covid etc..) takes a lot of tenacity.
Lee. Thank you for your detailed and honest analyst.
Please continue to speak your mind. Thank you
Great video! A little harsh possibly but you’ve pointed out several interesting perspectives, which I would love Elon to answer. Would be great to get you both in a room together! Keep up the great content!
Thx for your realistic perspective Lee!
Lee I completely agree with your reservations.
Truest words I’ve ever read (somewhere) - “ we overestimate progress in the next 2 years and underestimate progress over 10 years” This is a most apt comment describing Tesla..
Hey Lee, I appreciate your perspective about the two ends of the bell curve! I also feel this year will be very uncertain. I'm all for long yerm growth so continuing to DCA in as maybe one of the startups of Tesla will show its hand which I have time to wait for. Glad CGT discount for 1+ year holding is there to keep 💎🙏🏻💪🏻
Hi Lee, you made some good points in your video. Some things I agree with you, in others I don’t agree. In a few others, time will only tell.
Continue to talk, I like to hear what you have to say.
God bless you!
Good video Lee, this is what I always look for. Give me good reasons why my best idea might be wrong. I asked my son who's a business consultant, "Okay back in 2021 when you were telling me Tesla was just a bubble and I was nuts. Instead of just arguing it is or it isn't, the better question at that time would've been, "So what do you think I should do?" Instantly, "Sell half, put it in S&P indexed funds, or hold the cash. Lock in your gains." And looking back that would've been smart thing to do. My fear would've been that Tesla could've tripled in value and I'd only get half of that gain. It would've been a good move. (I'm still ahead, but not like I was or thought I would be. I also still think that at some future date, looking back at 2020 the value wasn't unreasonable.)
I can beef about the short sellers as well as anyone, but for the past couple of years Tesla has indeed been almost solely a vehicle manufacturer who's stock is grossly over priced. They haven't produced in any of their other areas as we expected them to.
I think your points about not trusting Elon are turning out to be true.
And I do think you should go somewhere you can try out FSD. Come to L.A, I'll let you drive my Model Y. Take the family to the Grand Canyon, Disneyland and Las Vegas. Unless you have a reliable source of information, I don't think there is any geofencing going on with Tesla FSD, at least not much. I've driven my FSD Tesla 36,000 miles (58.000 km) to date, all over the U.S. It self drives about the same everywhere I've been. It absolutely reads the stop signs, and lights. There are two off ramps on the 101 freeway I drive to my boat. There are traffic signals at the ends of the ramps clearly visible on the freeway. At night when those are red my Tesla starts to slow down. A video billboard registered the other day as an emergency vehicle, my Tesla slowed and started to pull over. The screen said emergency vehicle. So if there's any route massaging, it's not very much.
The videos never tell the full story. On city streets FSD is competent, but slow and a bit awkward. You can't always tell this in the videos (I spent five years in Ann Arbor, Michigan where Chris on Dirty Tesla drives, so I know those streets and roads really well. His Teslas are going a bit slower but that's about all. His turns are herky jerky like a lot of mine, but that doesn't show up in the video. )
At least in Europe people don't buy more BEVs (not just Teslas) because they are not as practical as ICE cars or hybrids. BEVs are great city commuter cars for those who have access to at-home charging. If one daily commutes mostly using public transit/bycicle, and needs long range from the car (often while towing, we like camper trailers and bycicle racks) - BEVs are not that good of a deal, being expensive initial purchase. Public charging is also more expensive here, and sometimes could be more expensive than gasoline/diesel, per kilometer. So until energy density of batteries improves and we get cheaper public charging - BEVs will be a smaller niche.
excellent video Lee, any thoughts on LEAPS for June 2026 would be nice if you did an updated video on this topic-
Thanks for speaking the truth and not pumping for views
I’ve never seen a video with so many genuine Tesla investors sharing how they’ve significantly reduced their position.
Anyone else?
That’s super eerie as a long holder.
Lee, i'm starting to see your side of things more. FSD before 2030, nope! Robotaxi maybe never. 4680s are a big fail, they have worse energy density and slower to charge than 2170s, without the safety/longevity of LFP. I think solar and wind is the future but not for Tesla, the margins are not enough to make it worth it, I think they will exit solar completely in the next 2 years. Semi and battery energy storage could be huge wins for Tesla, but they won't move the stock price enough. Demand isn't going exponential like they hoped, too much FUD and bad news like the Hertz deal and the Chicago frozen chargers. They need to do a better job with service and battery replacement prices. Most of all they need to hit a home run with FSD, Tesla bot, or Model 2, there's no other way they can ever hit 5x current market cap. I'm waiting till shares drop to about $100, which I think will happen this year, then i'll probably load up.
Lee, what stops Tesla from partnering with CATL to solve the dry coating issues of 4680s. CATL knows a lot more about battery than Tesla.
It’s a hard sell for me. I’ve been following Elon and Tesla since 2012 and things have definitelly changed in last 2 years. Community is so toxic and cultish, it’s making me throw up. Anyway, I used to have 24k shares, now with only 4k. I am not willing to be invested based on dreaming about robotaxis or robots, they can easily be 10 years out, nobody knows…
That's because the performance of the company is no where near what the bulls were saying. Now they are having to pull at straws in hopes of getting TSLA back on track. Every time I see a title that says TSLA $4000 in 5 years I get a giggle. I do expect it to rise like that. I don't expect FSD to be the end al and be all for the company. I do agree with Lee on the fate of the company resting on the 4680 cells to reach their potential. When my wife purchased her Model Y last September we went for the LR primarily because I do not think that the 4680 nor the structural battery pack is to be trusted for long term reliability nor decent energy density.
I've been buying tesla since 2019 and have made a small fortune.. I just sold 90% of my TSLA and am now invested into Bitcoin.. BTC is getting ready to bull run (like it does every 4 years).. A chance to 2x or 3x my money in a year..Tesla and Elon has become super frustrating !! elons promises keep getting strung out too long.. Robo taxis are 10 years away ( im talking when a car drives itself with no human help)... The Model 2 profits are 4 years away.. Batteries supply is limited..Dojo seems to be not doing so good...and there are no short term catalyst (except Fed rate cuts, which could be huge)... I think in the next 2 years there are better investments, like Bitcoin.. Also, Twitter X seems to be his new baby and all his time.. Trying to get big $$$ from Advertising.. But , on the other hand, he wont adverstise.. It doesnt take a 160 IQ to see that Teslas PE ratio at 70 is way too high.. I think wall street will begin to evaluate Tsla at a 20 PE....
Not sure why you are so hung up about 4680 ramp being "just add more lines". At some level it was always going to be more lines. Back in 2020 the had assumed a 20 GWh/a line for their new cell (which turned out to be the 4680). These days they are planning a line at 25GWh/a.
I don't see any problem with getting to 100GWh by using 4 lines.
Yes, they are behind schedule with getting 4680 to production. But we also have to keep in mind that this 4680 project was extremely ambitious from the beginning. To believe it would get to 100GWh/a in 3 years was really betting on everything panning out without problems. But we know that it is extremely difficult to come up with a new better and cheaper battery chemistry, difficult to completely revamp the mass production process. Even more difficult to try both things at the same time.
Anyway, back in October 2023, when they announced 20M cell production milestone that corresponded to a run-rate of 8MWh/day of cell production (assuming 94,6 Wh per cell) or ~2.9GWh annual (nominal).
Coincidentally, if they kept that run-rate we'd expect to hear the 30M cell milestone any day now (early February 2023) - IF they announce 30M - they might skip that and maybe announce only 40M?
[please double check my numbers]
So that cell production run rate would be sufficient for 65 Cybertrucks per day (assuming 123 kWh gross) or 460 CT/week or 5900 CT/qtr - which is roughly in line with Drew Baglino's statement that 4680 production ramp is ahead of actual CT production ramp.
4680 is wayyyyyy behind schedule. I agree this needs to be priority #1.
It's good to hear someone from a different viewpoint.
I invested in Tesla stocks because I watched your videos and your predictions where quite good. Though I have a big loss at the moment, I learned from you to be patient and invest for long term. Right now it feels bad, but I still think about all the things you said over the last years. So I am confident in just waiting until the stock price does go back up and make me proffit.
Keep doing what you are doing, I trust your judgement on Tesla.
Got to my shares limit I wanted to hold but I couldn't resist this dip to buy more. I'll pause for now.
Appreciate your perspective. I think it is measured and well reasoned. There are two things you said that I disagree with, however:
1) I don't think that Models 3 and Y are battery constrained; I think their markets are becoming saturated. In other words, I think it's a problem of demand. It's a combination of the price of these cars, which is still on the high side, battery life anxieties, the common styling of Teslas (and the visual similarity from model to model, the Cybertruck excepted), and the lack of a conventional instrument cluster. Why Tesla hasn't introduced a heads-up display for these cheaper models mystifies me. Also, I think sales are limited by the number of people who live in detached houses and who therefore can charge at home--which really makes owning an EV a no-brainer, in my opinion.
2) But let's say you're right, and production is constrained by the inability of Tesla to produce 4680 batteries in volume. What puzzles me is your speaking of increasing the number of lines to get around this problem as somehow "cheating." Why not do this? At least as a stopgap measure until Tesla can solve the dry electrolyte or cathode problem--whatever it is. That is, if it _can_ be solved.
Anyway, those are minor disagreements. I agree that Tesla stock price is in for a rough time UNTIL a breakthrough is announced in FSD, Model 2 production, robots, or semi truck production. Then it's going to shoot up rapidly.
100% agree that they need to just add a heads up display, add car play, and keep the stalks, just to placate all the people who want those things, it wouldn't cost that much.
I'm still holding all my shares for now, but thank you for sharing your outlook.
Me too, for now.
Love you Lee! Your honesty and integrity are truly appreciated! I think we need a little more of that from Tesla bloggers!
I think we Tesla lovers need to learn discernment and judge less. Each of us can have our own views/beliefs. You have solid views but they are less impactful due to your dislike for the super bulls. Focus comments for those like myself who care about your views. Speak frankly and with constructive energetic exchanges. You are worth a watch.
Great video and I would like to first say that I agree with many aspects about what you are saying, but not all. I am curious what your current position is? You said you are waiting to buy because the stock will go lower, but how about current options positions - puts and calls? It would help paint better context into your current feelings about the stock. In past videos, you were very involved with call options and I expect that you probably lost a decent amount of money on those since the stock did not pop the way that many at the time, presumably including you, expected. I don't think Tesla is going to the moon this year and I am a very long term investor, so my thesis is that EV adoption, ever increasing capability of AI (FSD, in car Chat GPT type capabilities ect), long term trends with regard to battery storage, as well as the long term future of AI robotics (also an AI play) will cause Tesla to increase in value over time. Since I am not selling or buying calls I don't need it to happen today, this year, next year ect. However, I do know that options whether they are calls or puts is a big part of what you do, so it is curious to me that as the recent bad news has come out and many - even long term bulls are feeling like a pullback to potentially $130-150 is in the cards over the next 6 months - that you would be playing that action. Could this be an impetus to put out this kind of content besides just being a "Tesla Realist"? Is my assessment incorrect? Much love to you and your family and I am a big fan of yours and as such just want to know the full picture behind all of your motivations.
I too have been watching the battery production☹️.
Without the 4680 scaled up production stays low. But I have to remember that at battery day they said 2026 for scale up. And that's still 2 years away, sadly.
Great message Lee. More people need to hear this.
I bought massively on the thesis that 3680 would hit, the German factory would fully ramp, and there would potentially be more factories- needless to say none of this happened- oh but Elon did tank the stock by buying the dumpster fire Twitter. We did have a fed that skyrocketed interest rates and here we are left holding the bag with the only hope that by some miracle FSD hits, and for Bots to be our savior. I’ve learned that when you’re investing and you find yourself “hoping” you’re fuct. But I’m too invested to sell. My money is trapped for the foreseeable future as there’s nothing on the horizon to truly move the stock upward.
Sponsorships; voice to text; "experts"; shaming; group think. Thank you for keeping it real.
I was worried about enough batteries but others were pointing to third party battery manufacturers to supply batteries. the problem is the cost of using third party batteries.
Really appreciate this video. As a Tesla investor, it’s good to see pros and cons so we don’t fall into an echo chamber. Always do your own research. IMO this will be a tough year for Tesla but long term, they will do amazing.
TE... Keep up the good work 💯
Your analysis that the FSD is effectively geofensed by where Tesla has the most data is a good one, I live out in rural area and I have many interventions when I drive. I think it is truly impressive technology.
Appreciate the tone and balanced view.
Great assessment, Lee.
And very true. On all accounts.
I feel the same 100%.
I do, however, have peace of mind due to one thing: long time horizon.
8 years? 10 years? 15 years?
I’m good. Day to day doesn’t matter to me. Hold, my friend.
(Transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient).
The competitive advantages of Tesla is not what most people think. A simplified product range architecture and Technical maturity of their supply chains and products are among their biggest real advantages.
Hey Lee, thanks for your videos, it balances the Echo chamber. Couple of things, regardless of Tesla, the cost of solar has come down to the point where it’s less expensive and nuclear doesn’t make sense. Even outside the sunbelt. Cybertruck demand you referenced is higher than you let on, I actually reserved 12 trucks gradually adding more orders as a call option on robotaxi, my first order is in the first 50k per cybertruck owners club list. I haven’t gotten a request to configure one. V12 is supposedly coming in the next weeks on my model Y. It supposedly has curb to curb. I’m very curious to test it myself and likely points to robotaxi really happening. Full disclosure I am heavily invested so I am biased but I see other legacy oems reducing EV output and Tesla poised for success
Diversity of opinion is important. Keep doing your thing!
Agree with you, there are too many fanboys and not enough folks looking at facts. Elon is incredibly distracted with Twitter and does the company measure able harm every time he goes rogue on Twitter and spouts something no other CEO would dream of. Have been a long time Tesla shareholder and still hold, but it’s getting harder every day to see a way where current valuations are logically supported.
Thanks for the reality check Lee. I should probably stop checking TSLA prices every day and just wait for you to announce that 4680's are ready to start buying again^^
Very interesting... If you stick to your balanced view you could become an important source of Tesla information... because it would be nice to get someone who isn't always on the bull side... I too, am a little overwhelmed by the Tesla "mania"... and granted, Tesla has many unique characteristics, and seems to be exceptional in many ways, but I agree with you, it gets a little weird listening to nothing but good news no matter what... so your point of view, the way you described it, will be very welcome to my mind... i.e. essentially you are just trying to be "scientific" first and "bullish/bearish" second... as opposed to the other way around... Lol!
Thank You. Your plain views are incomparable, truly.
Understand your thinking. Understand that we are all waiting impatiently. Understand also that the future takes time and that it is hard to imagine how it will look like really. Key point for me: EVs will get cheaper over time and thus replace ICE vehicles. Tesla will be one of the beneficiaries. Tesla’s value run ahead of the intrinsic value and many did not see it. Now people are often angry instead of being self critical. Keep up the work.
Your damn good at what you do. What you said about Stevenmarkryan is smart. I too am guilty of watching that content
I remember when last you got bearish. It was at the bottom.
limit buy orders set at 180, 170, 160.
My research in Tesla in 2017 is why i invested. And i have taken profit and still hold shares.
Tesla still has its fastest growth ahead of it. The company has added new products which has really altered my forecast for the better. my Rating is a Buy.
As a Tesla shareholder you offer a refreshing view. I don't own a Tesla -too big to fit in my garage. Maybe the Compact model. I too have experienced the huge high in the share price and now the low. My take on why the shares have dropped : The consumer is now much more aware of the downsides of EV's and Tesla : Very expensive and slow to have repaired ; Much greater than ICE for tyre (tire) wear ; How long do the batteries really last? The range degrades over just a few years - often to just above the level that would trigger a Tesla warranty claim (cynical but probably true!) ; It is cost prohibitive to replace the batteries. Will it be still functional in 20+ years like my current ICE car or become valueless? EV credits won't last forever -here in NZ EV credits are now gone and a road user charge is coming - ICE vehicles already pay this with the price of petrol . This will slow EV demand; We don't have enough chargers in NZ - waiting in line and then to charge is not as seamless as ICE ; Electricity is a commodity like everything else. Once (or if) the market is saturated with EV's then the price will surely go up. I'm hanging on as a Tesla investor. Apart from the US the rest of the world drives smaller cars so I would expect the compact to do well. It has to be profitable to produce. You are so correct that it is all taking too long. BYD have shown that quickly bringing stock to market has it's rewards. Cheers and regards.
Sorry, but all those arguments are factually incorrect. The M3 and MY are nowadays the same price as their ICE counterparts with comparable features. They don't need any general maintenance, repairs are not slower than fossils. There is NO greater tire wear, so far I have the same or even longer tire wear compared to my fossils from 10 years ago. Statistics don't support your argument either at rental or taxi companies. We've had EV's and Tesla's for years now and it's clear that on average batteries last a LOT longer than the drivetrain and engine of a fossil car. The range degrades a certain percentage, but it's still over 80% of the original range after 500K km. More than usable range at least after the fossil car has already died or needed a complete engine overhaul. Of course you can find exceptions on both technologies, but so far it's clear that all the perceived downsides consumers had 10 years ago about EV's are all seriously debunked.
Given yet another complete emotional breakdown happening on X, I came to see how many views this channel is still getting out of curiosity. Honestly amazed that almost 10K people still click on this
I think something extremely important, more than the cells, is computer power.
Dojo is late and is a long term high risk high reward project.
They'll invest over a billion this year alone on Nvidia GPUs
They question is how kany can they get and how many do they need for v12 and the bot. This is the biggest bet for me that should get way more attention. It could go very good or very bad pretty soon.
Keep up the good and objective work
I think it's a good buy right now. But it's a buy and hold, fool around with options and you're playing with fire
i feel the same way as you. the tesla stock pumpers are getting too cultish about it all.
Are you still a Tesla investor now?
I hope so, the guy is smart, as we need critical realists
@@jasiaci1 Not my biz but if I "don't trust Elon" (any CEO) I'm out.
I get it, Elon can be wrong, def 'pathologically optimistic', but he *usually* does the impossible late.
Spot on.
Lee, I have subscribed to Tesla Economist for a long time now. I really like your approach and level headed reporting in your videos. I too think that while Musk is a brilliant engineer with a lot on the ball I don't trust him, and his actions with Twitter/X has be a horrible influence on Tesla with absolutely nothing positive for either company. I also expect that he will sabotage TSLA again to try and keep X afloat. Probably sometime this year.
You have called the 4680 right on from the beginning. I agree with you but I also think that without other things changing the structural battery pack concept is a bust. There wasn't significant weight savings and the only thing I can see it having for it is ease of assembly. Certainly not a bad thing but not worth the lack of serviceability that it brings along with it.
I think that the CT isn't as bad as a lot of people make it out to be. However, it will be a drain on TSLA for another year or more. When the Model 2 comes out in 2025 it will sell well in Europe and China and likely Latin America as well. But if it is a compact car it won't likely be a big seller in the USA. There is a reason that they were dropped from the Legacy auto makers lineup. Now if the Model 3 could be sold for $25 - $30K that would be a BIG seller.
Keep up the good work.
Great vid Lee. I think buying based on a more macro based ideology like PE etc is sensible. I’m one of those who blindly went in now I’m bag holding. That’s ok I’ll take my medicine and DCA at these lower levels but once RSI increases, PE goes too high and it’s dominated by whales then I’ll most likely cease to buy and resume when it’s at lower levels like now and even lower. I do see it as the most valuable company in a few years time.
Thanks again for your perspectives.
I appreciate your perspective and gained some new valuable insights from it. On the other hand I disagree with you on some parts Investing is a patience and waiting game. You seem like your not as confident in the ai part of Tesla business and the ai development in general.
Thank you. Sobering it is needed big time. Problem for tesla it did not grow reveniue and earnings wise for around 5 consequitive quarters. This should be a big wow moment... and it looks like the next 8 quarters are going looks very similar so how come somebody can call it grow stock!!!???
100% agreed
I remember all those TH-camrs who seem to have had a change of mind and disappeared over the last few years.
You speak a lot of common sense, but one thing I felt was missing is the larger context of the market in general... i.e. the negative feeling I have for the market in 2024 is across the board... so what your saying isn't necessarily about Tesla, but Tesla in the current market environment... relatively thinking, comparing Tesla to the legacy manufacturers, don't you consider Tesla to "the best house in a bad neighborhood".. another thing, Elon admitting he has his own doubts on Cybertruck... and the underwhelming mileage... I almost think he did that on purpose...
Keep up the good work !!!
We did try to tell you in 2021…
Thanks Lee. Love your show, I’m buying Tesla every month
The thing that you said that I think held the most weight was.. paraphrased.. If there is so much cash lying around, why not go 'all in' with Giga Mexico..'
Coulda skipped the psychology bit
They explained why not in the last earnings call.
Kudos, I definitely want the devils advocate perspective and you are giving a lot of that. However, I would like more context of the macro environment and the entire car industry mixed in to give an even more realistic (and possibly mitigating some of the negative) about Tesla. The pandemic, supply disruptions, and high interest rates have dampened the entire market. How much have these macro effects REASONABLY delayed Tesla from their growth targets and slowed their investment strategy? Also, there can be no argument that Musk underestimated the difficulty of FSD. Seemingly, he mistook an exponential problem for a linear one.
Still, it does seem there has been a lot of progress made and it is truly getting closer. It is hard to judge the "tipping point" whereby the problem is "dominated"--the smarts and compute power effectively solve the problem. Tesla, et al. do seem to be applying exponential improvements in hardware and software on the exponential learning problem which in my estimation should give linear progress. I have regularly watched a stream "Dirty Tesla" which does test FSD in Michigan. And the progress is impressive, but you're right, its not there (true FSD) yet. Recently AI has seemed to pretty much crack the NLP (natural language processing) problem, and it would not surprise to use some of this same relevant technology to get over the hump in self driving.
I waited for your response 😊
Whenever I need a wake up call, u r always there
this is a masterpiece of a video. it is interesting to watch it and for each point in time realize what the chinese companies are doing.
Thanks, i appreciate your level head.
Oh man you are a very logical person.....❤
Hey Lee. Based on your last video, you mentioning that you are still loading up on substantial Tesla shares and was happy that you are getting it at a discount .Today, you seem to be bearish on Tesla. Can I check, why are you still loading up on Tesla shares when you are bearish? Just want to know your logic on doing so.
Thanks
I haven't loaded up yet, I am still waiting, I wanted to load up, wait for it to rebound and then sell before Q1.
Traders lose money.