Why Tesla Made the Cybertruck
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 พ.ย. 2023
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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Are you back to normal a bearish mood Lee? Came across very negative to me. But still good to hear your opinions.
Lol. Wonder if he has some short term trades
I don't want TE to be either bullish or bearish - I want realistic and that's what he is.
Fan boy 😂
This guy is one of many "TESLA experts", he's certainly smart and provides interesting insights, just don't buy or sell based on what he says, always use your brain.
Anecdotally the CT is getting tons of new folks behind the wheel of 3's and Y's at showrooms.
One guy noted there were 20 to 40 (two showrooms he visited) Tesla cars available for 30 minute test drives.
People are forgetting the design link between the Model 2 and Robotaxi. CT will do very well.
It is easy to criticize and hard to propose solutions. You have ability to spin data either way depending on your mood and or tesla’s stock price .
All in on Tesla. Can’t wait to see that price rocket 🚀
1:18 Take a look at the auto market generally in the US at least. The dealership model allows channel stuffing, but the industry-wide days of supply is now reaching 70 days (where 60 days is considered normal) despite the huge pent up demand for fleet sales from the pandemic and having virtually no inventory a year ago. Tesla's direct sales model left them exposed the economic circumstances immediately, now the rest of the industry is bracing for the hit finally reaching them. Stellantis, Ford, and VW are all seeking voluntary layoffs and cost cutting; GM already did earlier this year. Rumors about legacy autos idling factories due to having too much supply.
I couldn't decipher your sentiments through your sarcasm. You did touch on just about everything negative or positive.
Tesla is encountering the same problems that all large companies have and that smaller companies don't. As they get larger they lose their flexibility and ingenuity. A couple years ago. I wondered if that would happen and it does look like it is happening Tesla.
I still have not lost faith. I still believe in their mission and that they will achieve their goals but at a slower pace than they predicted.
CT prioritizing first-principles has introduced many new manufacturing techniques. Many of these will translate to the Gen 3 low-cost platform. It makes sense to spend development costs on the higher-priced vehicle, so they end up spending less developing the low-cost one. The other advantage is time--they end up developing these new techniques earlier, so less time will be spent during Gen 3 development. It's only as fast as the slowest part, which is typically the part most different from previous designs.
That's why they'll be more Plaid motors etc in the Tesla Semi than S & X eventually
I'm having trouble making head or tails of this video. What is the point, Lee?
He's waffling because he got burned so badly.
246 sitting on T when this was broadcasted
Hi Lee
Seasons greetings to you and all your family. Hope you are keeping well and thank you for all of your videos.🙂👍
Two things anyone investing in Tesla should have engraved in their minds, 1) Engineering is hard, 2) Changing a paradigm is harder.
Thanks, Lee. Appreciate the rigor and frank assessment. Few Qs.
1) still long and/or leaps?
2) any active hedge(s)?
3) 12m PT?
Thanks for your insight Lee.
The CT ramp was “slow” thanks to a pandemic and economic uncertainty and uses the newest processes and is also fundamentally different. It’s also the first of more CT vehicles to come (van rumored to follow). CT exists because the U.S. loves trucks… and changing truck culture is key to the mission statement. Model 2 and Robotaxi are going to likely be partial adaptations of design going on with CT. And the CT is “legal” in its intended markets, North America, not Europe (though it will be there too). People have doubted success with every new Tesla vehicle… every one of them. This is going to go well for Tesla, it’s not surprising some people don’t see the value in it.
In the Q3 earnings call Musk said the "Model 2" will not be built like the CT, specifically it will not be skinned with stainless steal. He was very clear that it would use traditional engineering to make manufacturing easier and less costly. This is what he meant when Musk said they dug their own grave with the CT.
Thanks, Lee, for the clear voice amongst all the noise of bulls and bears. Best, Carlo
LEE!! Thanks for the content!! Much appreciated!! Glad to see you again!! Greetings from Canada!! GIDDYUP!!
I must say, you have some well thought points Lee! Any thoughts about Q1 24 would be appreciated 🙏
Tesla developed the Cybertruck for a variety of reasons, including to enter the lucrative pickup truck market, disrupt the traditional pickup truck design, appeal to Tesla's core customer base, demonstrate Tesla's engineering prowess, and generate buzz and excitement for the Tesla brand. The Cybertruck is a significant vehicle for Tesla, and it has the potential to change the pickup truck market.
All of those things. Cybertruck is more or less in a market of its own. Now that it has been delivered, early reviews have been incredibly positive.
Great to hear your voice again. I think you bring a level of realism. That's not and some of the other Tesla TH-cam channels, I appreciate it.
I was heartened during the Q3 conference call to hear Tesla talking about starting the second batch of 4 x 4680 battery lines in about 6 months and also the ramping up of the rest of the current battery lines at Austin, what are your thoughts about that?
And the Lee pendulum swings.
As I predicted basically immediately four ago after the launch event, there was a delayed launch and most of the cause was the 4680 cells. Making battery cells is super hard, and trying to massively innovate battery cell technology for your first try at manufacturing battery cells is insane. Tesla are still madly iterating the 4680 cells and their production. They will get it right, but why anyone would believe a timeline prediction from Elon Musk, especially, but really from anyone on a new product with many large innovations required to achieve mass production…they don’t have the answers and no one can possibly know how soon they will find them.
All that said, the main prize is FSD, and some employees are testing v12 now, so maybe a Christmas update will be v12, which is NOT a beta, which I assume means no longer needing to have one’s hands on the wheel. It is not robo taxis yet, but being able to be driven around town hands free WILL increase demand, a lot.
Great counterpoints!
1) Increase the SPEED of charging and 2) increase the number of charging stations so that they are ubiquitous and buyers will come. It’s not that the market is ignorant as much as it is savvy.
When it comes to making a significant dent in carbon emissions, durability is not mentioned enough in the EV story. EVs do create a significant of emissions when they are manufactured. A truck that never rusts and super rarely dents with million mile motors, and I expect battery pack to last a million too, eliminates two more EVs from having to be made in the future. I expect my nephews who cannot drive yet to inherit my two Cybertrucks and drive them all their lives.
Carbon emissions are nonsense
Lee, have you sold your Tesla shares? What are you investing in?
Lee! You’ve been quiet as of late? No new post? In about a month. What going on?
I just want my Cybertruck so bad... Can't wait to see the price.
Some good points, Lee. I am a bull but you are right the 4680 so far is a not where Elon said it would be, Drew mentioned he expects to realize the 4680 in 2026. That I think is the real reason we don’t have a quick ramp on CT and still don’t have roadster, I think once 4680 is realized in 2026, so will roadster, full ramp on CT, model A
Other OEMs are suffering much More...
There are many versions of the Rav 4 are you saying the Rav 4 priced similar to model Y is selling more?
Hard to say. The RAV4 generally outsold the Tesla-Y, with 300,000 vs. 280,000 but sales are flat so it’s likely to be overtaken in 2024.
I checked Toyota's website. The highest price version is the Hybrid Limited, which is $40k with no add ons or dealer markup, and I assume the MY blows it out of the water, especially on performance.
I hope that the ramp of Cybertruck is being sandbagged - maybe it is just down to the 4680s ? Tesla have been pretty coy about the actual production process, they save all the time in the paint shop, they use castings, perhaps they are even trialing the unboxed method? I think there could be some surprises to come as we watch the ramp.
Interesting analysis. From my perspective, during times of high-interest rates and relatively low gas prices car buyers will stick w/ what they know. They may be comfortable w/ a hybrid but an EV is a bridge too far right now. Especially w/ EV charging horror stories in the mainstream news. I forecast that EV adoption will be lumpy in North America and more solid in China/EU.
That’ll be worst of both worlds for buyers.
Poor resale value, lots of fires, ICE service, poor EV experience.
Just what Saudi Arabia ordered.
Dumb cars.
At present, it’s BYD vs Tesla. BYD stopped making hybrids, Tesla never did.
Low gas prices relative to what? Not low in California.
FINALLY someone says it. Tesla cannot expand on production, because they would need greater price cuts to stimulate enough demand for the added inventory.
Why slow ramp up? Probably because it is the first car ever with a 48V architecture. I think they need to do all the control units themselves.
Disagree on electronics in-sourced. What do you even mean by "do themselves"? Are you suggesting Tesla is setting up an electronics production line with SMD pick and place robots and reflow ovens? Certainly doable, but why not contract out?
My guess is the slow ramp is due to difficulties in manufacturing the steel outer shell to good enough tolerances at speed. That is the new thing and Moravec has even commented on the manufacturing challenges.
Where is the Tesla Economist ?
upvoted!!
I believe in the company and stock long term, all these short-term hick-ups are to be expected. No company, no person is perfect. Tesla may always be late with their delivery on products, but at least they deliver. You have to take into account Tesla is exploring uncharted waters when it comes to manufacturing, big learning curve. Compared to other automakers Tesla is way ahead.
Lee! Why no content for over 1 month?! A lot happenings at Tesla!
And the Cybertruck is the most advanced consumer vehicle on the planet. No other vehicle has steer by wire. When FSD is finally available, it'll be years before anything close to it. And anything close? It'll be a Tesla.
There is still a lot of ignorance but I think Musk summed it up what's really going on when he talked about high interest rates causing monthly payments to be high and that a significant factor in most car purchases is the monthly payment. The higher price of a Tesla over most vehicles makes it more expensive to 'get into one,' even if over time you will have a much better, more reliable, vehicle that will save you money. I do think more and more people understand this. (I get fewer and fewer questions about, 'Do they still work if it rains?' and 'Aren't you worried it'll catch fire?' )
Batteries? I think if production of 4680s were to rapidly double and then double again, we'd see Tesla vehicle production ramp up, PowerWall and Magapack production and sales rapidly increase.
Interesting about 29% ford dealerships stopping selling electric vehicles , via the electric viking
Be careful with information from the Electric Viking, he shares opinions and facts on a regular basis.
You said that they can't ramp the factories because of low demand but then you said it's because of low battery supply, which is it?
Sorry Lee, but your dialogue at the beginning doesn't make sense. Pickups are a massive part of the market, specially in north America. Pickups are everywhere. And for every gas pickup replaced by a cybertruck, an equal amount of emissions are taken off the road. Maybe even more. Because many pickups are used FOR work, to to get TO work. Implying more miles throughout the day...
“The actual specs will be revealed, but you doubt the battery size will be revealed?”
Tf? Lol
This does seem unlikely, Lee is seeming a little unhinged these days.
I thought the battery size was already leaked. I heard it was 123 kwh.
Lack of awareness is real outside the community
Example?
@@fredbloggs5902Ask you dad what he thinks a Tesla costs.
Missed your comments over the last couple weeks
I'm in it to claim it
The fact that Tesla is not using the front and rear castings on Y or 3 at all their factories makes me feel like they are not ready to hit the levels they want to hit. I think it is less about the buying public and more about getting the vehicles where they need to be. If casting reduce costs by 20%, they need to get their production lines to the front and rear casting for Y and 3. The refresh of the 3 and Y is a great excuse to do it. I believe 2024 could be the year they build the foundation that will launch it to the next level, the one that takes them to the largest builder of vehicles in the world.
Cybertruck is a going to be amazing, but I suspect it will have many issues in the first year or so of production, which is why it is good Tesla is going for a slow ramp. I do believe TSLA shares are going to crash due to the hype of the Cybertruck being so high that the reality will not be able to meet it. I think in 2026 we will see the Cybertruck finally hitting the levels of quality and performance needed to be a force in the full-size truck market, including work truck fleets. Then Tesla has the challenge of getting the production to levels needed to meet demand, which will likely exceed 500,000 units annually.
The other value of the Cybertruck is going to be their chance to see if they can truly master the stainless steel in high volume, which no builder has ever done. DeLorean had a mess with the DMC-12. No one has made hundreds of thousands of units of stainless steel bodied vehicles yet. If Tesla does master it, will this lead to a work van and will be used in on the compact?
For me, I view Tesla as a company the shoots for the moon and can get it, but with much more effort and time needed than they thought. If my faith in the Tesla team falls, that will likely be when I will get out. For now, I do have faith in someday having a Tesla vehicle with an AI system that is more like something from Iron Man movies or comics. Teslabots will make it to market and will be the most affordable highly capable robots out there. Tesla energy virtual power plant will become the ultimate energy trading platform.
Those looking for huge jumps in TSLA share prices anytime in the next couple of years, might be very disappointed. While I wait for the next big jump, I slowly buy more shares when I can.
Tesla factories running at 1/3rd capacity? Wtf source or is this guy out of his mind?
My understanding is that Berlin doesn’t currently run a night shift, but that’s 2/3, not 1/3.
I think he must mean 1/3 of what capacity was initiated stated to be, not 1/3 of what it's currently capable of making.
Your overanalyzing everthing. The main problem with EV sales is interest rate. How is your father's portfolio doing. Really felt bad for him. Is he still in Tesla stock. When Tesla hit 105 in December, I was fortunate to have a low cost basis and a 10 year horizon. I'm very comfortable holding Tesla knowing it has other projects outside of EVs.
Cyber truck will only use 4680 cells. Once fully ramped these batteries will change everything
Facts. People dont like them when they dont support their beleifs.
Good video, first time listener.
you miss the point of government policy outlawing sale of ICE vehicles at various points in the next 10 years … that will certainly help the public get educated over time
Government isn't doing it for education purposes. It's doing it because it mistakenly believes that it has the wisdom to pick winners and losers.
Miss you Lee
Ford lightning ramp right now is at 20k a year which is very low.
That's 120 years of manufacturing prowess down the toilet 🚻 when it comes to profitable EVs hahaha 😆
Do you think that the FSD v12 will be good enough to 'drive' the Tesla taxis in the Las Vegas tunnel?
The world's most 'benign' driving environment!
FSD v12 released to Tesla employees. Tesla AI supercomputing power put other AI companies to shame. Tesla expecting to make up to US$500 million in profit (not revenue) per qtr selling battery storage. Tesla is still just a car company? No manufacturers have yet delivered a vehicle body with very hard stainless steel, because it is very difficult to do so. Tesla Cybertruck also pushing for a 48v architecture for internal devices to reduce copper use and vehicle weight? Implementing many technological changes at the same time increases the risks of failures.
Where Lee been to? Been Mia on TH-cam and X
Do you still have a position in $TSLA, Lee? I can’t work out where you’re at given your barbed and sarcastic commentary.
I’m content to have my assumptions challenged, it’s useful, but you give very mixed signals.
Lee has obviously sold $TSLA at todays high, and is now talking down the price to buy back in on Monday.
Let’s hope he hasn’t done this with his dad’s money as well, it could go horribly wrong for him.
Actually, when TSLA is down he disappears. Now, after 2 days of TSLA pumping he's back. However he can do whatever he wants.
Lee's comments have zero effect on the stock price. He's a nobody.
I'm a big Tesla fan, 2023 model X owner, and investor, but I'm concerned that sales of the Cyber Truck will fall way below expectations and thus TSLA will get hammered. I was one of those who put down a $100 reservation but I now have no intention of buying one. One obvious truth is that Tesla will always lower the price of their vehicles when they deem it to be in the company's best interest. So why not wait to buy any Tesla model, and then wait some more, and buy only at strategic times. Oh, and the Cyber Truck will certainly sell, but not up to expectations and then the Street will do everything it can to criticize and dampen sentiment. And judging from Elon's comments, the Cyber Truck probably won't make the company any profit for 3-4 years. Sure hope I'm wrong.
I'm in the same boat. Argh
Cybertruck has years of production on preorders, even with smaller demand and higher price it's still sold out for the foreseeable future.
Lee you seem down. Wonder if you have a negative bias due to financial loss in options or leaps. You know enough to know long term tesla is in a league of its own.
Bias is irrelevant to whether what he said is true or false. Or whether his reasoning is sound.
Don’t care about speculating about the bias of a stranger. It’s irrelevant to why most people are here. And it should probably be irrelevant to you as well.
So, the reason the two new factories are running at 1/3 is a lack of demand....
Yes
Cyber truck is just the beginning .......of the EV history. get some perspective....
Lee everything ok?? I enjoy hearing your insights but are you getting burned out?
Of they solved 4680 Things would be glorious. Hyper semi and CT ramp. But they dis not so far
Gonna skip the CT Scam and go directly to surgery. 😂
Hello Tesla Economist, long time follower of your channel here. Like most of your subscribers, I am a Tesla stock holder who come to your channel for news and comfort about our investment. I especially admire your ability to provide unbiased information and "turn" a bad situation, good. As you are probably aware, recently the CEO of Tesla, Elon has been stoking the ire of the general public by using expletives, making non-sensible comments like "tell that to Earth!". The video is so cringe inducing, I suspect it is likely AI generated. I am starting to worry that his strange behaviors, how they may ultimately impact my investment. In the event, those live broadcasts are real, how can I rationalize this information to others when I encourage them to also invest in Tesla. Can you give us something, to spin the narratives into a good thing? Perhaps, F''' You Bob (Iger) really means something different in 17 century French literature. Maybe there is deep conspiracy afoot? Please do your magic. I know there is no line you won't cross to protect our Tesla shares.
Thank you so much Tesla Economist!
Can I please have some of what your eating ?! 😂
Pickups are the top-3 selling vehicles in the US, but you think CyberTruck was a mistake?
Sorry, I’m starting to think you’re clueless.
More probably you just don’t like his opinion. Because not only did you needlessly insult him but you pointed at nothing he said that was factually wrong. He never indicated a lack of awareness of the popularity of pickups in America.
Tesla is starting to piss me off with nickel and diming consumers to death, why $200. for the charging cable that was free in my 2019 model 3!!!
Love love love the hair bro. It's very saphisticated .
You sure are an odd duck......
How do you know CT will ramp slowly? Because Elon says so? Hopefully Elon has learned to underpromise and overproduce. Pickups are the biggest segment in the US. Get behind it Lee quick with the never ending negativity. A lot of what Tesla does is new, never been done. Very difficult to predict timing.
Honest, peaceful question: is this channel satire?
I have never heard anything so positive and negative in ths same video.
Wow so done with you! Such nonsense lol😂
#tistheseasonforleetodistesla
I have to eat my words. You have shown an ability to be objective in the face of undeniable facts, an exceedingly rare trait in a sea of those who rather lie to themselves. I apologize for misjudging you as another immoral fanboy selling hopium to the gullible.
I believe Tesla has a lower production target, for the Cybertruck, largely because the real demand is not even comparable to that of the Model 3 and Y.
Demand /pre-orders for CyberTruck are currently estimated to be over 2 million.
@@fredbloggs5902 $100 refundable deposits are not a measure of demand. If demand is really that great why is Tesla only targeting a 250K a year production rate? At that rate it would take close to a decade to fill all the orders.
@@davidwill1320 you’re a clueless troll.
@@davidwill1320 We all (including Tesla) know that $100 is not that much. I think it's prudent to be conservative in building a factory for such an ambitious product - start with 250k a year and then see how that goes. If demand is truly higher they can always add production lines, just like they did in Shanghai.
And here is the 🐻 dancing again …
Masking the reality of genuinely minimal real cybertruck demand by saying it’s more difficult than thought.
This comment isn’t going to age well…
@@fractalelf7760 depends on whose timeline……..real or Musk
What is your guess of “minimal’?
@@davidpearn5925 You literally are declaring “no demand” with no evidence. The burden of proof is on you.
@@fractalelf7760 I don’t have to prove anything regarding Elon Musk nonsense……he’s in Israel embarrassing the male species enough. The cult is beyond repair…….and he admitted that it’s not an auto company now.
It doesn’t have stalks either………..the mission to self-destruction is on track.
Because its military vehicle..
Starlink= Drones
Welcome to the new military industrial complex
yea, I often wonder about that too.
Oh please…. anything can be weaponized, and the steel on a CT is inferior to almost any military grade vehicle armor.
@@fractalelf7760 Say red backwards..... but the cyber truck is pacifically for military purposes plus autonomy
This guys problem has always been no patience. Teslas not building Superchargers quick enough? Are you kidding. If the fastest moving company in the world isn’t fast enough for you, maybe the problem is you? 🤷🏼♂️
My advice to TE, disinvest move on with your life.
Are you going to rebrand your channel the Tesla Sceptic?
the founder became the problem genius and clueless ,not good for employees or shareholders...imo
No one else gives a crap about the future of humanity. Would you prefer Elon to be more like Mark Zuckerberg?
Please give your best example of Musk being ‘clueless’.
@@fredbloggs5902 this commenter is probably flat or possibly under water, depending on when he bought, so he's frustrated that the stock didn't 5-10x after his purchase.
Exactly right that cybertruck was supposed to be easy to make with new design and a replacement for ice trucks. I stopped trusting Elon the moment he claimed he was buying Twitter for freedom of the press. No one who is dedicated to that concept would attack critics like Musk did before and after that purchase. It put all his delays since the model Y in a whole new light. While I don’t consider him to be an intentional liar I do think he is frequently deluded about his true reasons for doing things, honestly evaluating the outcomes, and feasibility. He powers through a lot of that with dedicated effort, but he is even more delusional that he can continue to tackle more and more issues and not affect his primary goals at Tesla and SpaceX. Launching the roadster on FH test launch and Optimus are two things I questioned his sanity on but are looking pretty good in hindsight so my doubts make me uncomfortable. However, as a data driven guy I see lots of issues including all those you touched on especially blaming price drops solely on macro and 0 on his behavior alienating customers.
Are you enamoured of Mary’s behaviour, enough to buy a Hummer?
Is Elons behaviour responsible for declining sales of VW, BMW, Ford BEVs?
Are you data-driven? Or self-deluded?
@@iandavies4853 - since you mention data irrelevant to Tesla, I question your objectivity. I never claimed Barra was a good CEO or that companies losing money on EVs should cut costs like Tesla to shore up diminished demand. IMO it takes a very low EQ to believe attacking your customers has no demand impact. There is data to support there is a demand impact to Elon’s behavior but I doubt it is the prime issue given the overall market conditions. It is just quite dense to say in public you don’t care while quoting a stupid movie and also claim no impact.
@@markeby6985 no CEO is better than Musk, no OEM produces better BEVs.
Then Tesla is moving beyond just cars.
You are just sore about politics.
Elon’s focus is making humans a multi planetary species. And he is funding it by himself.
Why do you think Elon bought Twitter?