How is Tesla Being Valued?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.พ. 2024
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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Hi Lee, I was one of the people who wrote about patience on X, I didn’t go into detail as to why its not just about being patient. I’ve looked at Tesla in mega detail, listened to every conference call, read all quarterly reports, watched every Elon interview, watched thousands of you tubers, so my research is deep. I have a strong conviction since 1. I understand how difficult it is to advance technology and 2. I’m seeing Tesla make these advances. They are building a massively stable foundation that will bear fruit. Each day the small advances will one day bear fruit. Traders will have difficulty with this stock, as the big changes will not occur in a year or 2, its more on a 5 to 10 year scale. The 2 years flatness can be seen in many examples eg Microsoft, Amazon. The key is, is the company making the smart moves ? If you think the answer is yes, invest. If you think No, don’t invest. I worked for an IT comapany, which was mega successful,Under the hood its always a million times harder to get things to work then is impressed to the outside world, but a good company eventually can get there. I see Tesla as a great company with passionate smart employees. I think they can do it.
How much do you understand about security analysis or stock valuation? How many years / decades have you been investing?
@@Conkee1711 Over 30 years invested, always made a lot of money with each bet, over $200K profit, retired at 55. So I think can talk with conviction. I don’t need to convince anyone. I comment to provide perspective, take it or leave it doesn’t affect me either way.
The question is: would you ever drive a car without a steering wheel. Would you ever have somebody else get into your neat and clean Tesla. Yes they will solve FSD but will the public as a whole be willing to drive in their own selfdriving ‘taxi’. Lately I started to question that thought and became skeptical.
If Tesla wasn't so overvalue, it would make sense to be patient with the stock. But it is way way overvalue, even more so than other big tech companies. In reality, it's just a car company trying to get into the tech industry but priced like it already achieve it. So it has no upside but downside. 5 to 10 years, competition would likely leave Tesla in the dust. Take for example, Google's Waymo has already achieve FSD and robotaxi service currently operating in select cities. So imagine how big Google's robotaxi would be in 10 years? Tesla FSD is so behind. There are many competition in the robot industry as well and Tesla will never beat Miscrosoft-OpenAI in the field of AI. In fact, Tesla will not even be in the top 5 AI company, we have Apple and Google and Chinese tech giants who specialize in this field. Even if Tesla continue to have success as an EV company, its stock will crash to the same PE ratio as GM. Meaning Tesla will lose another 70% value in the next 5 to 10 years.
@@walden6272 obviously I totally disagree with what you are saying. We will see who is right. I trust myself because so far all my investments over 30 years have been correct. Whats your track record?
Lee sounds real different than he did when he was buying leaps
He got burned big time, and lost a lot of his father's money
Yep, and what do you do when you get burned in the short term? Throw a sissy fit and act like a toddler of course. @@darylfoster7944
He bought leaps using a credit card. Sheesh!
Only an economist??? would do that@@Dallasrebar
If it’s good enough for Ron Barron it’s good enough for me- not looking for a quick buck 🙄
You are looking for a buck at some point though…investing your money on someone else’s conviction is not advisable, Ron Baron probably bought all his stock when Tesla stock was 10$, I am fairly certain he is not buying anymore
That’s good cause if you would’ve held a stock for the last two years you’d be down over 50% where you could’ve put that money in pretty much any of the rest of the magnificent seven and doing very good right now
@@jgoemaatwell not if you bought at 120 last year, sold at 270 and bought again at 185.
@@sitarang07 the most expensive, by some way , shares I bought @ $ 302? ( in a panic) I now have 15X as many - still up 🙂
He likely brought under$40
Long term investing.
Amazon has lost 30+% in each of the last 18 years, 90% twice.
When was the best time to sell?
Never.
Analysts and commentators never understood Amazon.
'Just a bookseller'.
'They would need to sell every book on Earth to justify the shareprice'
Some things never change.
And you conveniently leave out the litany of successful companies that hit their all time high and 20 years later never reached it again and sometimes were bankrupt.
I guess we just ignore all those examples and pretend what you said is an evidence based truism?
But it was a bookseller, until they pivoted. AWS was not their plan, right?
@@kpectbi Tesla, was a car seller, clue in the name 'Tesla Motors'
@@grahambrown42 yes, that's why it is valued what it is now. I am not sure in what timeline analysts said that amazon is a bookseller, before or after AWS. If before - they were totally right.
Model Y world’s best selling car. Model 3 second best selling EV (only behind Y). 3Fresh awesome. Semi awesome. Cybertruck awesome. Energy ramping. Batteries ramping. FSD very very big problem to solve, but will be solved. NACS. Supercharging network. Energy arbitrage. VPPs. Next gen EV. AI. DOJO. Insurance. Optimus. It’s not too bad an effort from one company.
It will not be ‘solved’ by Tesla in our lifetimes. It’s not even close to functional.
I find it funny that the same thing was said about landing rockets vertically. As long as there is capital being deployed, great leadership and talented engineers working on the problem, it will eventually be solved.@@singed8853
this is a dangerous mindset, loving the product doesn’t result in great investment, i told my family for the past 3 years now that no Adult should own TSLA stocks, but all the Kids should, see the difference? During that time the Adults invested in NVDA after their stock split, Adults up 8x and NVDA can still go to $740, then $800, then $900 by year-end then $1,000 in FY25, $1,500 by FY27! TSLA stock could still be stuck between $160 - $190 by FY27. Why do u think Elon did NOT give forward guidance for full year FY24? bc the number is horrible
@@ken-mb5cpoh he’s into acting now? What’s Teslas true value ? Tell us.
Nothing you were talking about is equating to increasing earnings. Earnings have been dropping at some point you have to make earnings. You can make a great car but if you’re making very little margin on it, it can’t support your over inflated stock price I’ve been hearing FSD was going to be done for years even if it was done tomorrow, do you know how many years it will take to get through the patchwork regulation for 50 different states to allow that to even function on the road?
we should of been buying NVDIA instead, the real AI play
Bravo Lee. Always good to be willing to express opinions in the face of those who will disagree with you.
I have no issue with idea of ten million vehicles annual sales, but not without a factory in India and the still yet to be proven next generation production line being part of the package.
In the home battery storage space competition is very stiff for Tesla. In the large commercial battery storage space competition is very stiff. The charging network space seems to be evolving quickly so that Tesla is not as dominant. More and more areas where Tesla has had a clear lead is becoming less clear.
I agree with the idea those looking for good trades with TSLA shares over the next couple of years will be hard. I am still riding the 2030 train with TSLA.
I agree Musk is not always correct and some of his statements or actions have driven away buyers from Tesla.
With that said, I like most of the people that part of Tesla. I think they have what it takes to get Tesla to the biggest company on the planet. I already wrote off 2024 and 2025. The next major growth will likely be 2026.
I think it is great you are focusing more in your business. I hope it all comes together for you. Keep shaking the Tesla echo chambers. People need to hear more than just fluff.
Good on you Lee. I’ve been following this channel since the summer of 2021. Glad to see you have woken up. We are happy for you because we knew this day would come. However, that is life. We learn and we change.
Hello. Tried to get verified on X to write you, but it’s not yet possible in my country. As a big fan of your content and someone who sees Tesla as it is, I’d like to ask you a question: In my view Elons plan was:
- produce 4680 on a massive scale, dirt cheap and with incredible performance
- develop FSD to robotaxi status, no steering wheels needed
- > use 30bn cash to produce cheap (4680 great (DBE for cathode), unboxed assembly, giga cast front/rear, structural pack) robotaxis in the millions, don’t sell them, start printing money with in-house fleet.
That all is not possible without solving 4680 production. What’s your possible path to buy back into $TSLA? Stock price tanks to 100$, incredible biweekly FSD updates, breakthrough 4680? Thanks a lot. Best regards, Stefan
FSD interventions are not to 'stop a Tesla from crashing,' but usually because it is being sluggish, getting in the way of other vehicles, taking too long to change a lane, turn a corner. It also turns off because you have to apply a differential force on the steering wheel, so sometimes when it's going into a curve it off because the combined forces yank the wheel out of FSD.
The scary interventions, like when it tries to jump a red light (hasn't done that in many months) or make a hard right to the exit you've passed and then turned FSD on again.... Who knows what FSD really would've done. I expect it will catch itself and stop, otherwise there would probably accidents reported.
FSD is already very useful, it already makes driving easier. Especially on freeways and streets with traffic signals. I've used it almost every day for three years. On long road trips my level of fatigue is minimal with FSD. I wouldn't want to be without it.
I think the biggest safety issue with FSD is that when it turns off FSD it leaves Cruise Control on. There's no indicator for this, the speed stays the same, so it's easy to ignore just another machine bing noise and think FSD is still working. FSD sees that it can't take this curve, but it leaves the speed up. It should drop the speed when we take over. Not doing so undermines the 'bing' sound. This is the same problem as with any car that has cruise control, but few people use cruise control anywhere except on a limited access road like a freeway.
I do think all the delays and over promising has removed a lot of future expectations from the share value. Is Tesla really a tech company or just an EV maker? I think Robotaxi was supposed to be in full operation this year. There's zero chance that will happen.
Can Elon still do amazing things? Sure, but not if he's somewhere else focusing on other businesses. 4680s are behind, the Semi is behind, Cybertruck was late, FSD isn't even close (shouldn't we be hearing some reports from early adopters of version 12?), Dojo is either late or it's not going to deliver. The robot? How close to Boston Dynamics is it?
I also suspect Musk may be sandbagging or sitting on a few things until he gets his next pay package. If I was on the Tesla board I would advocate for Elon getting his 25% state -- minus what he sold off to buy Twitter. That was a bad move with negative results. I don't want to have to pay for his clearly bone headed mistake with my equity stake.
Of course if Dojo works as planned, if vehicle production expands, if battery production increases rapidly... but I've scaled down my investment projections.
Woah that sounds fully wrong and dangerous. My cruise control switches off on road bends and therefore slows down until I press accelerator and then it races back to speed setting.
Good overview. As long as he is still ahead of the game, and china doesn't keep copying everyone and everything lol😅
You can now switch FSD engagement to “single tap” rather than double tap which fixes the cruise control issue you mentioned
That's terrific. Thank you. I had absolutely no clue. I'd heard that on some of the newer models they were doing this, but I never considered the cruise control aspect or that it was possible on my Y. So now 1 tap is cruise control, 2nd tap is FSD. And that will go to no cruise control option? I don't see any situation where I'll miss that. @@kylewagner45
It's not a bad thing that the competition copies you, It means they will always be behind. They can only innovate to the level of what they can copy. This is why authoritarian and corrupt countries inevitably flat line, el supremo general secretary demands industrialization, puts his ideological pure toady, or nephew, in charge. Voila! steel factory! homeland tractors! trucks! but they look like 1956 Fordson and the trucks look like 1938 Studebakers.... and it's 1980.... (in 2000 China was still building knockoffs of the Soviet knockoffs of the Lend Lease Studebakers we'd sent them in 1942. The next generation of trucks were 1990's level. ) @@nzzenith
@5:48 - "Q1 2023 delivered less energy than Q4 2023. There is no progress over the last year." That is incorrect analysis and I'll explain why. You could say the same for 2021. On a quarter by quarter basis, growth was non-existent. But when you zoom out on an annualized basis, energy is growing dramatically. Total energy delivered in 2021 was 3.99 mwh, 2022 was 6.54 mwh (63% growth), and total energy delivered in 2023 it was 14.72 mwh (125% growth). When you look at the progress in energy on an annualized basis, things become clearer. To say there was no progress is not inaccurate.
Hi, hope youre well. will you be making a review video of this last quarter?
Lee
Thank you for this video.
I admittedly got caught up in the fanboy hype.
Looking at the demigod status for Elon, made me realize that I had lost my investing objectivity.
Additionally, I realized that clickbait video titles were driving traffic to these channels, which helped their short-term income regardless of their investing "advice".
That's the TH-cam game and I understand their desire to play that game, but those videos are not the investing news that helps my investing analysis or patience.
I'm so glad to be listening to your videos again.
Balance isn't the right word, but the perspective you are bringing to a Tesla assessment is the right path.
Thank you, Lee, for your efforts.
Look at natural language processing. Decade after decade it was attempted and results were relatively pitiful. But in a few short recent years with the advent and progress of LLM and supporting hardware, the breakthrough was made. Tipping points or thresholds of technology can start to dominate an application after years of grinding. Part of the progress of FSD has been the expansion of environments and situations it is handling. It has already advanced several orders of magnitudes in capability since it was first attempted. However, you are absolutely correct, in that there is a lot of uncertainty about how close these thresholds are.
However, my feeling is it needs a couple more orders of magnitude of improvement, but I believe it is on an exponential advance right now and that could be as soon as 2 or 3 years to achieve that. Originally, the car had tremendous limitations and even with those limitations could not go even a few blocks without problems. Now, significant drives are being made. My main point is it may be closer than you think. Going 100 miles without an intervention to avoid a dangerous situation can change to 10,000 miles with 2 orders of magnitude improvement. And one more order of magnitude gets you to 100,000 miles. Pulling off the road, alerting a remote operator, and other remedies for exceptional circumstances could improve the FSD record significantly beyond human driving. Remember, FSD won't be drunk, it will be hyper alert, and thus it should avoid many potential accidents that are caused by human distracted driving and also avoid accidents by distracted drivers.
Another however though agrees with you. Uncertainty is not really baked into the price right now. It is assumed the solution is at hand. That assumption makes the stock a bit of a short term gamble, because PE compression can happen very quickly when there isn't supporting revenue and desperate competitors are fiercely attempting to defend market share with price wars. If you are willing to hold TSLA for a very long time, I would bet you will come out OK, but there is no guarantee. For the short term, I think it truly is a gamble and also depends a lot on the macro economic situation.
Wish you’d come back. I respect your honesty over the biased content creators.
Lee - valid concerns. Add value for yourself & others by exploring each line of business in more detail. For example energy / mega packs - how big is the mkt, how fast growing, who r the competitors, mkt shares, growth, best tech etc? Same with robots, cars. Other: Wrights Law still working, S curve still good? Why/ why not? Tony Seba fcst record - how good? You have the skills to help yourself and us too, to better understand the underlying realities, trends, good/bad assumptions etc. Best wishes!
Thanks, Lee - appreciate the perspective. However you lost me when you made comments like “the competition has surpassed Tesla” and “I expect the compact car to only sell 1 million units per year”. I haven’t seen any car that surpasses a Tesla for the same money and I don’t think the price elasticity of demand in the auto market would support the second claim. But thanks again for always being thoughtful and clear!
I think he was referring to BYD's Ev's. They seem to have matched Telsa's specs and beat them on price. However, what I don't know is how much the Chinese government is subsidizing BYD.
Excellent analysis Lee. Thank you for sharing it.
Good stuff, Lee. It gives me some things to think about. I’m definitely betting on FSD. I guess my experience with it has been more positive than it has been for others. I can’t remember the last time I had to take over to avoid a crash or incident. It’s mostly just about not wanting to anger other drivers because it is so cautious. My foot hovers over the accelerator more than the brake.
Such a well-written post.
@@eyesuckle Well, thank you!
Where do you live?
@@mrbushpilotA smaller town in California.
Thank you for your inside Lee. Good luck with your start up
I liked it when you showed and discussed your valuation model. I'd like to see the figures which support your point of view in addition to the broad overview. Tesla's current price is obviously based on expected future growth and future new business models beyond auto, like FSD robo taxi and AI in general (bots etc.), how wise it is to invest based on these is a judgement call and a gamble which probably doesn't align well with sensible investment strategy
Yes. You are a voice of reason. My doubts have paralleled yours for a few years. I do hold a small number of shares but not a lot of conviction.
Everybody gangster until high interest rates narrow the pe multiple spread. It took so long to realize these multiples are only loosely connected to rational valuations anyhow.
I respect you and thank you for real thoughtful commentary. Will miss you on the ride.
I fully agree with your moving goalpost analogy. Except for me, it actually gives me comfort. Even if it’s late, a 6T market cap by 2035 would still be 10x in 10 years. Still seems like a safe long term investment if you have the time horizon to wait it out. The goalposts may have moved back, but the potential is still there
It really isn’t there imo. As the video says Teslas first mover advantage is gone. Many hoped they would do more with it than they did. Fsd is essentially dead in the water. And the robot thing is a joke.
I’m not saying the company doesn’t have potential. I just don’t think this company has the potential it did 4 years ago hence the share price all time high remains comfortably in the rearview mirror.
@@singed8853 So you don’t think FSD will be solved ever? Will anyone solve it? Or just Tesla’s is dead?
And the bots too? You don’t think it’ll be able to do any useful work for any job at all even in 10 more years? Look at its progress in just 2 years
Be greedy when other's are fearful & hopeless 😊
Sarcasm aside Lee, Tesla is not a short term bet. Anyone investing in Tesla needs to have a long term investment horizon and shouldn't being putting money on the table they may need in a few years. Tesla is better suited for someone who is willing to dollar cost average into a position over the course of a decade or more with the expectation of only being rewarded in the distant future. Autonomous cars, humanoid robots, virtual power grids, and energy storage may take a very long time to pay off. But if Tesla only hits on just one of those bets long term, anyone who has been patient enough to keep at it with their Tesla investment is likely to be very richly rewarded. Others might be better off investing in stuff like Coca Cola.
Thank you as always for the amazing videos.
Staying long in a bull market will make anyone look like a genius, the bear market will take all of that back. Tesla Economist is a good example of what will happen to all the fanboys, as Tesla sales stagnate or most probably fall in the next 2 years, while sales prices sink, and Musk attempts to pivot away from cars to a new "shiny bauble" to pump the stock price. The bounce to $300 was a classic bear market "suck em back in" before the long, painful fall. Now 50% below that $300, 66% down from the top and going to a new low below US$100 and ever lower.
Lee,
can u do a video on whether BYD will mass produce Sodium ion batteries then deliver them to Tesla? i cannot tell if BYD is full of it or whether they really do have Sodiun ion batteries. i’m a bit confused
BYD does have sodium ion batteries in production use for their BYD Seagul car.
Critical thinking is always welcome
Lee, you make some good points eg the X echo chamber, but you have moved from hyperbull, to the voice of reason, and now to chicken little waiting for the sky to fall. The fundamentals of tesla have never been better, and whilst auto growth will slow for the next 2 years the other profit centres are set to accelerate, especially energy storage. Tesla does not need to get anywhere near 20m per year by 2030 to justify its current or even higher price. I am holding
So what earnings-per-share do you think Tessa’s going to generate in 2024 due to energy that makes you think that’s gonna drive the stock price up energy generation has not been growing nearly as fast as they once thought leave your estimate, and we’ll check in in about 10 months. Lee makes an extremely good point. If they didn’t have the tax rebate in the US they’d be hurting big time right now I don’t know if margin will be half of what they currently are?
@@jgoemaat I am forecasting Energy EPS at 0.30 and 0.56 for 2024 and 2025 respectively. What are yours?
Turning hyperball to a chicken in public - isn't that the the kind of thing you would do if you were shorting the stock?
@@nody31 That is possible, but I think it more likely he has simply become disenchanted, probably due to realised losses, and is now unable/ unwilling to see anything positive
Clear, concise, realistic, great delivery, Lee. I, too, am a cautious Tesla bull. Keep on delivering these interesting podcasts!
Lee
I hope you and your family are well. Thank you for sharing your highly intelligent evaluations with All of us who watch.... appreciate and follow your channel.... Please let me know that you are ok?
This video is far more coherent than your tweet storms, thanks Lee.
Thank you Lee for a level head approach to Tesla
He sold at the bottom last time, and now that the stock is down 25%, he thinks this is a good time to sell and time the market..
@@roweyurboat573 you didn't listen to the video
@@justchillin619 Did. Tell me where I'm wrong
I'm so glad you are back, I miss you when you do not post
Wasn’t the share price meant to be $1000 by now?
"I seem to be the only person". Well, arent there a ton of sceptics or am i missing something? And yes you have no certainty, thats why it's called in an investment. If u want to be sure please consider other options. Please don't take a few uberbulls opions and say that nobody is critical of Tesla and Elon for that matter. I don't agree on a lot of things but still think that they are gonna be more succesfull, What was the best selling car in the world again? Yes a premium electric car, not bad I would say.
He's got it wrong about the 25k car...Musk will make it No1. There's so much going in to it to make it a stand out winner.
I added several posts about 3 hours ago and all but one are missing. No bad language or accusations. In fact one was very complementary to Lee and his posts. I wonder where they went.
I think he gives them the boot. He's touchy.
Some of us Tesla fans want to hear both sides. So I hope you continue making vids, with both pro and cons about TSLA. My portfolio is mostly TSLA and is down about 50%. Its around 10% of my net worth. So im not exactly happy with their current EV demand, and looks like they might cancel the Mexican factory. If trump get elected it might get real bad. I was one if the guys on X saying I'm waiting for it to hit $100 to buy more. Elon is more into X and politics now than his companies, so $100 is a very real possibility.
What do you think about Aswath Damodaran buying last week at $180 ?
He published his valuation analysis in November, worth a read: aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/11/tesla-story-turns-and-twists.html
TE probably refers to him as a “fanboy”
Shorting the stock now ? does that explain the 180 degree turnaround and talking it down? 🙂
That’s how a conspiracy theorist thinks. Jump to unsupported conclusions like fools.
Very glad you caught yourself drinking the Koolaid !! We are down heavy and changing our stance as well .
Thanks, I needed that!
Hi Lee hope all is well with you and your family...🙏🙏🙏🙏
I got into Tesla economist videos because he always had charts to back up his bull thesis, im 6.5 minutes in and ive seen no charts, suspicious indeed, if Lee wants to make statements about how energy sales are down why isn't this backed up with a chart or graph that presents the data, was that particular statement even true or accurate? Where are the numbers to back up what you're saying Lee, and if they exist why are you not presenting them? I love u as a human being Lee, I want to see you succeed in life and I want to consider truthful things u have to say that are backed up by real data but im wondering if you even have even have anything truthful to say at this point that can be backed up with actual data? U seem hurt and angry and lost in a sea of negativity that might not be as accurate as u think it is. Is there any way we can get a civilized discussion going to get to the bottom of the actual truth, not the false overhyped negative or the false overhyped positive but the objective truth?
I agree with a lot of what you say Lee. I appreciate your willingness to stand up to all the Stans. I loaded up at the bottom in 2019 after I bought my Model 3. I’ve sold about 75% of my stock since then. Unfortunately nowhere near the top as I was too sucked in my Elon’s bs at the time. Anyways I’m wondering, it seems like you’re no longer a fan and likely not a shareholder. So why keep spending time on this? Why not move on? TSLA is just one of thousands of investments you could make.
Very well reasoned Lee. Some of the fire does seem to have gone out of the Tesla story for now....
Great video...thanks!
I think Lee has understood. Tesla is no longer a small wonder company anymore. I like the change you undergone... you got real. All you say is absolutly correct. But the fact is, holding Tesla shares is a huge oppertunity cost. Even if Tesla pops 5x.... you still made less than with Meta or NVDA last year. Tesla a great company... but it has had its run and is a mediocre Investment at best.
Poor Lee, looks rough. Sold out a while ago at $260. Will buy back at $100
Yep you sure will 😂
Please relax , only invest what I can afford to lose , diversify , stop looking for a get super rich soon and be happy with what you have , I have Tesla shares , I also have 30 over shares , Microsoft , palantair, rolls Royce , etc etc , please enjoy the long road , it is over before you know it . If Tesla works , great , if it doesn't , oh well, never mind, we took a chance , .please enjoy the journey , not the destination.
Great video from someone who understands the company
I have two Cybertrucks on order. One tri-motor and one two wheel drive. I won’t be taking delivery of either of them when my order comes up. Tesla over promised its abilities and under delivered. No 14,000 lb tow rating. No 3500 lb payload. No ramp in the tailgate. No 500 + mile range! Plus my biggest complaint is the 50% price increase. The truck is only useful as a daily commuter and I could get two model Y’s for the same amount of money. It’s going to be a flop unless the price comes down drastically!
I like this new you.
I'm in at an average of $300, if We can go on another run to $250 I'm all out.
I fear the reality is setting in and a massive drop coming to a more realistic price, from which i may buy in again.
How the heck you averaging 300? You must have bought them all near the top.
@@Cybertruck1000 yep bought quite a bit at $328 around Nov 21 when I bought my Tesla, as you do.....
@@sr20trx Lee lost a ton plus a bundle of his Father's money when he panicked at the last big drop. He thought it was going to go to 50. (All from memory). I stayed with it and it suddenly went to 300. The same will happen over time. If you have time, consider sticking with it.
big fan, thank you
Hi Lee hope all is well with you 👍👍
I 100% agree with you. I’m heavily invested but Tesla has seemingly stalled on its pace of innovation. Bots, FSD, it’s a pipe dream right now and we’re not seeing anything of significance on the car front . They should have made the compact car 2-4 years ago when they were laughing at the idea and the thought of not selling out inventory seemed impossible. Now they’re going to have to give that precious margin- just like the OEMs do. People say “sell” - I would if I weren’t under water in the investment.
I think socialmedia is creating an InformationCrisis. Most Contentcreators need to post Daily. But real Information is released once a quater. Everything else seems to be vague interviews which could be interprited in every way or Bot Videos which could be cgi. Whats left is Drama and Emotion. Maybe the Tesla Economist can fill that Gap. I love your Videos on Teslas Fundamentals. Put Numbers on the screen. Sources in the comments. Make it traceable not emotional. 🙂
Leigh, I MISS YOU SO MUCH! Are you ok? ❤️🙏❤️🙏
Ironic that Lee’s skeptic viewpoints were criticized but he has now been proven correct
Lee, I’m in the same camp as you. I would love to know your thoughts since you last made this video. For me, the news of the mass layoffs and the super charger layoff makes me think an extinction level event is heading Tesla’s way. In addition to the utterly erratic behavior of the Musk.
I’m still accumulating and will be through 2030, the price doesn’t matter to me as I DCA.
2 months without a video after he sold all his tesla stock.
Some people aren't cut out for this kind of investing and should just stick to index funds and try to enjoy their lives
yep, but then he bought TSLA CALL options. and then he lost everything again. hes really good in economy and trading. 😀 at least hes role as a paid TSLA basher is best suited for him.
X has videos etc.. it's fast getting better. I now use it 😅
@5:50
"Q1 2023 deployed less energy than Q,4 2023." That's good! I think you meant the reverse.
The MG Cyberster will steal the BEV sportscar crown later this year.
The BYD Seal 2nd Gen will outsell the Model 3 outside North America.
Kia/Hyundau high volume BEV vans will penetrate the business market while the Tesla Semi fades away.
After the Model Y refresh there's nothing to launch. Tesla is not Harley Davidson. Harley can get away with the same body for a decade yet Tesla can't. The Tesla lineup will be very stale as a tsunami of new and exciting models arrive, all of which will enjoy the Tesla charging network.
Nobody wants a 2020 iPhone despite the OTA updates it gets. Same with a 2020 Tesla. When the battery goes both are junked.
The battery on a 2020 Tesla will go in about 2040
I think you have nailed the problem with FSD. People think that FSD is what 90% or 99% finished? So why are they developing Dojo? They clearly need ungodly amounts of compute to get to your 7000 drives. Which to be honest could just be boiled down to either a distance or hours say 3500 to 7000 hours without a mistake. This is a level of perfection that we take for granted. FSD looks like it can manage up to an hour at the moment. This is the crux of the problem. Unless Tesla can ramp their compute power exponentially for a decade this will never get solved. People like ARK have hugely underestimated the volume of work remaining because in the march of nines each nine is ten times harder than the last.
Robo taxi not this decade I'm thinking. I hate it when people go on about FSD being nearly there.
Sound analysis Lee
Lee, You have always had great analysis of TSLA. I was so hopeful for Tesla so many years, but like you have come to realize Tesla didn't deliver. And now they are loosing their first mover advantage. If they had been able to ramp batteries... If they had been able to deliver Cybertruck... If they had been able to finish FSD... If they had completed the $25k compact... If they had been able to install Megapacks... If they could mass produce solar shingles... But, not executing has cost them and us dearly. I am so sad that you have changed your outlook for Tesla. Years ago you had figured it out so perfectly, but they didn't deliver. You have changed your outlook and I have watched with great sadness the struggles you have been through regarding Tesla. You were right with your analysis years ago, but Tesla didn't deliver. And you are right again now.
We don’t really know the value of any company in the future. As for what’s going on, a lot of impatient people are selling TSLA to just get into something they think is hotter. This channel has gone from level-headed to just being overly critical. I think you need to sell your shares now Lee and maybe get into Palantir.
😂😂 "i'm just going to keep trading it". What are you doing?!?! You seem obsessed with the stock price and the short term movements of TSLA. The 'tesla fanboys' you describe as long term investors (as if that is a bad thing) absolutely have the right idea. If their thesis is correct, the best strategy is long term buy and hold. You admit you have no idea what will happen to the business amd the fundamentals and your conclusion is to trade the stock....?
I'm not a trader and when it comes to investing it's all about the time horizon - mine is obviously longer...
I’m still buying $300-$400 per pay period for the next ten years .
Only dramatic thing that can happen to severely bash things is something happening to Elon.
@@Cybertruck1000 even if that happens I feel like the trajectory is pretty well set.
A interesting video Lee, refreshing tbh, (you had been mostly positive in the past, I think thats that's fair to say) I have to say there is a lot of wishful thinking going on in 'Tesla world', hope and fear I equal measure. Solid results to projects would help, if Toyota went all in BEV then Tesla would struggle majorly but they're pushing Hybrid and Hydrogen. GM built the EV 1 years ago and scrapped it, I think because fossil fuel minded greed and power, saw a revenue stream that must not die and still holding renewable energy back!!
Fully autonomous driving has to be achieved after all the hype - level 4/5 in China already apparently? (xpeng) - couple this with plajorism and mirroring of Tesla's manufacturing processes - competition will catch up and take the lead.
So many factors, then theres Elon, very intelligent and determined (in his own way), he has driven Tesla (no pun intended 😊) to this stage, I know the compensation package is huge, but it was agreed, it is an obscene amount of money, what will he do with it? He spent 44bn on Twitter only he knows why - freedom of speech? - debating chamber?
Who knows where this is going?, The Giga factories are real, people are driving millions of Tesla cars (safest in world) - this should be advertised on TV like amazon, commit a Billion to advertise to the general public, 2% of his compensation package?
I don't think Elon cares about money other than to make his plan work-so many projects - I'd like to see a stable Elon, focused on his mission, but who knows what he is planning? , if the Starship gets into orbit it will boost his ego 😮 - The instability in the world is not helping either, Climate change will play its part too.
I AGREE. You should do what you believe is correct and others should do the same.
What is the point of saying they are wrong or them saying you are wrong.
Because BOTH of you are.....
I hate to say it but i think you might be right. I reckon it's gonna take a long time for Tesla stock to go up significantly.
So Lee have you sold.. or are you still holding?
He sold just over a year ago and lost over 10,000000.
It's not good but I can't help having a little smile. He was a rampant fan boy before that drop, then a gibbering wreck and now he's the voice of doom. Like Frazer in Dads Army.@@Irishstew6969
@@Irishstew6969 Crazy. I would be enjoying some of that 10 million and reinvest some of it when the market crashed. He got greedy.
I always appreciate you pros/cons stream-of-consciousness on Tesla and agree with almost everything you said here Lee, except [[Elon...hasn't really done anything that impressive....just got a head start?]] Maybe nothing publicly known LATELY that we've seen, but you definitely need to qualify that statement...don't you think? If you really think it through? PS - I'm still in the cult drinking the kool-aid. Hope you'll rejoin us one day.
I don't want him to re join. He didn't stick with it and got burnt. An economist with a level mind would have reasoned it was better to weather the storm. the fundamentals were there and it recovered to 300 after he bailed.
Would you have preferred Tesla to not have taken such a big risk with 4680?
The progress of FSD _is_ quantifiable, however Tesla chose to not publish relevant metrics. The widely recognized metric to assess autonomous vehicles is "miles between critical disengagements". Here "critical" is defined as there being a safety issue that needed the human driver to disengage the system to prevent an accident, violating traffic rules (red light, stop sign) or other unsafe action. These are to be distinguished from non-critical disengagements, which could be due to human disagreeing with the system's choice of lane or speed (too slow) or other discomfort that the human driver did not categorize as safety issue.
So how large does "miles between critical DE" have to be for a robotaxi to be a viable business? First, it must be at least in the hundreds of thousands of miles, i.e. at the very least the typical lifetime of the car itself - otherwise an accident would shorten the lifetime of the car (and potentially passengers). The current US average is on the order of 500k miles between accidents. So to make a noticeable difference we actually need at least a million miles between critical DE, or 5 million miles if we go by Elon's "10x better than humans" standard.
Where is FSD now? We don't have official Tesla numbers. Tesla only publishes numbers for the FSD+human system, where the human obviously prevents many accidents that the FSD system alone would cause and FSD prevents many accidents that the human alone would cause. www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
There is however a community effort to quantify FSD performance at www.teslafsdtracker.com/
They don't have any data for FSD v12 yet, but for all previous versions back to v10 we can see that "miles to critical DE" oscillates around 100. Now that may include some locations where FSD is not very optimized yet (few Tesla cars), but still we can see that we are many orders of magnitude away from a robotaxi - a factor of 10,000x if we take the 1m mile target. What worries me more is that there is no visible trend of improvement in that metric.
I am 100% sure that Tesla uses this metric internally to assess progress, but they chose not to publish data.
We should also keep in mind that even without robotaxi, i.e. full level 5 autonomy, FSD can (and actually already is) revenue generating, it's just that the potential is (thought to be) much bigger at level 5.
05:48 "Q1 2023 deployed less energy than Q4 2023. There is no progress over the last year". You are wrong here. If Q1
FSD does have value even before it gets to lvl 4 and robotaxis. If it gets good enough so people are comfortable with it, the take rate could increase and that increases margin.
Energy is also so lumpy that looking at it from quarter to quarter does not really give a good picture. big projects that differ in size and differ in how their revenues can be recognized. Saying there is no progress in energy though there was over 100% growth in deployments YoY is dishonest IMO.
My thesis of being in the stock instead of trying to trade it, even if I agree that it might not move anywhere for 1-2 years or even more is that, how do you know it finally moves out of the 150-300 range? Buy in after it has reached ATH? Timing is extremely difficult, its more risky to stay out than in due to that, though if I was generally as pessimistic about the company in general then yeah, I get staying out until you actually see some results and some more concrete signs of the next step change in valuation.
FSD and even bots just seem inevitable to me, just like EVs seemed inevitable when I invested in 2017 or so.
And of course energy is a bonus in the background but even energy + cars are relatively small compared to FSD actually working and that is small compared to bots, they are kind of a safety net basically but without FSD or bots I would probably not stay as invested in the company.
The convenient timing coinciding with the falling stock price for these videos just makes this seem like massive cope and panic. Compact car not outselling model Y, really?
Check my previous videos before the stock fell, its a similar narrative. Why should the compact outsell the Y? The 3 cost less, and sold less. Very few auto OEMs have a compact as their best seller. There are already very nice $25k electric cars in China.
@@TeslaEconomistthat implies that vehicle category is the primary demand constraint but total cost of ownership is a much stronger demand driver for cars. If you have gas and maintenance savings on a cheap Tesla vehicle with a potential tax credit it becomes a no brainer for consumers. Not to mention the huge margin lever Tesla would be able to control simply by the major production cost savings advantage they’d have over competitors. If you think they’d run into a demand wall with that product they can just lower prices and advertise more to drive demand. We haven’t even seen them pull that lever (meaningfully) yet. And lastly it isn’t fair to compare compact sales yet because EVs in that category haven’t even hit that level of scale yet. Also I would watch the v12 progressions closely as effective end-to-end training has been a dream in the self driving space for a long time now and Tesla’s data and compute lead is phenomenal.
@@FumbledorfTTRleading in ‘data and compute’ is arguable - at least the latter. But I don’t really think those metrics are all that meaningful to the goal and I suspect this will be proven in the lack of substantial real world results (improvement). If Tesla was so high on data they would offer fsd for much cheaper prices.
@@TeslaEconomist I think a compact hatchback would sell like CRAZY in Europe. Maybe not in the US, but definitely in Europe. If you look at the streets, it's mainly full of compacts. People who own a big car often have a compact second car. If you can't afford a big one, you have a compact. I think a big reason why Tesla market share in Europe is so low is because they don't have a compact car (that is cheap enough).
However, I don't think at $25k it will be cheap enough, considering that most countries have around 20% VAT and income per capita is lower than in the US.
Yes we watch them light the sky as they explode. 25k Tesla is a whole new game.@@TeslaEconomist
The question is: would you be willing to drive a car without a steering wheel. Would you be willing to have somebody else drive in your neat and clean Tesla. Yes ,Tesla will solve FSD but is the public as a whole willing to take a ride as a passenger in their own ‘self driving ‘ car. Lately I started to question that thought and became skeptical. Has FSD become a meme in itself?
Are you willing to let your children be passengers in a bus with a guy at the wheel whom you know nothing about?
Price war going on for the next 2-3 decades (20-30 years) until all of the factories are built, stocked (with humanoid bots) and running efficiently? that is the guidance because musk just wants volume so that the factories DON'T lose money (or run at a loss)
Seems like Tesla has become a meme stock.
I doubt 20M vehicles will be delivered in 2030, and if they do, it's not going to be at an ASP of $45K. The auto market at that price level just isn't that big, and there is no certainty when FSD will actually be ready to drive volume further. To deliver 20M vehicles the majority of sales need to be around $25K to $20K, maybe $18K (Corolla prices). Most of the AI/FSD stuff is a long burn as it's hard to predict when it will actually be ready to use. Just like ChatGPT came out of nowhere seemingly, and MidJourney got so much better just in the space of 12 months. The main bull thesis for Tesla hasn't changed. Higher scale, higher EV adoption, lower production costs due to declining cost curves, lower ASP, much higher sales volumes, and at some stage software and subscription services (Like Apple with iPhone). Exactly when is hard to determine, but that it will happen is highly probable. I don't have any non-auto value in my valuation model, it's all a call option on the future. Your total negativity is totally off the mark and a good counter indicator of when the market is. I notice that whenever you go full bear mode we are very near the bottom of the market stock price wise. Glad I've been buying a lot more stock. The entire credits being the majority of the company income is plainly false. 98% of their revenue is auto, power, and services. Credits are 2%. Credits going away won't make a big difference. But credits are not going away, and will likely grow over time due to all the Legacy OEM's pulling back on EV investments. Tesla is the only profitable EV company outside of China, and makes a lot more profit than the EV companies in China (combined). The history of the stock price shows long consolidation periods (which we are in) and then large break out spikes over a short period of time. The company improves massively during the consolidation periods, and then when the market realises what has happened, that's when the big breakouts happen. I'd rather be buying during the long consolidation periods and being ready for the breakouts, which are hard to predict exactly when they'll happen. Glad I exercised all the $115 calls I bought cheap back in Jan 2023 when others were panic selling at the worst possible time before a 2x run :).
He told us to sell last time at 110$. That was the bottom.
@@monkey_man3931 sure. But last time lee got bearish on Tesla was at 110$. Right at the bottom.
@@monkey_man3931 also when Tesla was at 400 he made video's about Tesla market cap going to 10 trillion and Ford going bankrupt 😂😂
I agree with most you say. But isn't shareprice also about expected profits in the future? I concur with Ark that however long the FSD timeline may be, it is a first takes most of the market kind of scenario. Imho ARK are not some echochamber fanboy club. Do you doubt Tesla will be the first to solve autonomy?
There is zero chance that they do in our lifetimes imo.
Wall Street has a 6-12 month earnings horizon
@@singed8853 Well, I have no idea how old you are, but if you're 80 years old or younger, I think you're wrong. What you, Lee, and so many others fail to see is that if you can drive five miles in a city without an intervention, you are very close to being able to drive 500 miles without an intervention. Because in five miles in most cities, the car has likely dealt with 95% of the situations it will encounter in driving 500 miles. Look at the first DARPA challenge: No cars made it to the end of the 100-mile course. But one car made it something like 14 miles, if I recall. Everyone laughed, because most of the entrants ran straight from the starting line into each other or a ditch.
The next year, two entrants completed the full 100 miles.
We're very close. It's a matter of dealing with the outlier situations. And as so many have pointed out, it doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be better than human drivers--on average.
I'm thinking at least one big player will approach Tesla to use the FSD. Watch the share price jump when that happens.
@@eyesuckle logically, it should only have to be better than a human driver, but people have a different expectation of technology. They expect it to be virtually perfect.
Dip after Q1 ?😷
"Elon has not done anything impressive" that has to be the most ridiculous and untrue statement that I have ever heard.
Cry more because it’s the truth. Lee has left the cult and is being real about this over inflated stock. Your turn is coming too.
What has he done at Tesla that is so amazing? The fact is that no matter your views on what he’s done - his reputation for many has been built on unfulfilled hype and promises. The latest is humanoid robots.
Keep keeping it real please
Working FSD is a car with no pedals or a steering wheel.
Anything less is just cruise control with some bells and whistles. As such it will become an optional extra for $1000.
Tesla fans keep saying Tesla is the forefront of Self Driving Technology while its "FSD" requires a driver to be attentive at all times and it still doesn't work, where as Google's Waymo has been operation robotaxi for years now using cars with no steering wheel and no drivers.
I enjoy your posts very much, Lee. My investment in Tesla has been dead money for over two years.
I recently sold 20% of my holdings with no regrets. I’ve gotten over my irrational “sunk cost” mindset and I’m going to move on.
That’s the right mindset whether it works out for you in this instance or not.
Everything you said is correct. Tesla is a religion. It's hard to see past the religious fervor to see what is real. Any of the TH-cam channels saying that all your money problems will be solved ten years from now by investing in Tesla today are sketchy. Enough content has already been produced supporting that claim. Just invest then check back in ten years. The daily stock pumping and selling of Tesla/Elon fanboy merchandise and stock price targets is a money grab. The truth is that no one knows the future. Smoking lots of marijuana daily and having a combination of Asperger's with a high degree of confidence still does not give a person special knowledge of the future.
Hating Tesla and the people enjoying their cars and achievements seems like a religion too.
Well said sir. Keep these videos coming.
I subscribed because i like to hear the opposite side view, but if you really can't see how well fsd is going you got problems, that thing drives better than me except some mistakes that will be corrected.
Since you are all about logic, how much do you think they need to tone it down to release it to the public? If you think AI can't drive a car better then humans in the next few years you need a reality check.
Will you come back here to apologize in 5 years if you still are required to be behind the wheel of a Tesla in every country, city, and town?
If your view was so obvious then there’s no way Tesla stock would be barreling down back towards $100 as it is currently. You need more than a reality check in my view. You probably need a lesson in humility.
The question is not if AI can drive a car better than humans but if AI can drive a car instead of humans.
Not long ago stock price of Meta, Palantir, and NVDA went down by 60 ％-80 ％as market consensus was that stock price of Meta，NVDA，and PLTR were all bubbles. Tesla stock price will go skyrocketed again in 2026 or 2027.
NOT the Lee I’m used to, but it’s good to get a splash of sobering alternative perspective from someone who stopped drinking the kool-Aid .
Lee, you seem to swing from one extreme to another.
I think its very pessimistic with 1M units pr year for the next gen platform aka 25k$ car. This is a huge segment in a global context. Possibly less so in North America. But everywhere else compact low cost cross overs, hatchbacks and lower cost sedans and wagons are all very significant. Think Corolla, Quasqai, Golf, Peugeot 208,308, Renault clio+ Megan + all the Chinese offerings I am less familiar with. It's huge. Properly in aggregate about 20M cars globally. How big a share can Tesla take? Well if the model Y is an example of a strong Tesla EV value proposition to replace ICE. A similar value proposition in impact should be able to do equally well. Last point is competition. Primarily from China as legacy auto can't even make profit on the 40-50k ASP EVs. For the lower cost segment tariffs and shipping costs have a higher impact making Chinese built competition less affordable until they globalize manufacturing and supply chains. That will happen eventually with the few surviving brands. But they will be fare behind Tesla at that point. I do agree that the path to 20M Tesla cars in 2030 is not outlined and appears unfounded. The current road map has potential to achieve up towards 10M pr year, so just equaling Toyota and VW current volumes. BYD is most likely similar at 10M annually, leaving Toyota and VW at around 50% of current volumes if they don't start executing extremely well very very soon.
Let us know your derivative trades.