What is Tesla Doing? How Long Will it Take?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 พ.ย. 2023
- Tesla Stock Analyst Tool
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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To me, Tsla has what it takes to massive success in long run, for short term, I have stopped anticipating any strike of lottery moment in stock price
Just in last 12 months we've seen $101, also $300 back down to $195 in Nov
If you don't see because you've closed your eyes!
@soundslight7754 to me, this price fluctuation are far big gap to my target in long run, far from the iPhone moment
I remember when Tesla went sideways for years. I remember when Amazon went sideways for years.
Tesla more efficient, innovating faster, growing faster, bigger and better vision. I’m in this for the weighing machine so I watch the chart of growth.
@Mantraflip ，totally agree, that's why I never looking at Amazon at all even when its price 🚀
I get the feeling that bc of elons new enemies, big jumps are a thing of the past. Like no matter how great the news or the numbers, it will be muted or cheated by the powers that be, kinda like the meme stonks were.
You and I have spoke about this before. The Gen III vehicle will energize demand. This vehicle will have a much bigger addressable market.
Thanks Lee. For me, you’re perhaps the most realistic, well-reasoned bloke discussing Tesla on TH-cam right now. Some of your subtle quips keep me giggling along from time to time too. Keep up the good work!
The timeline of future plans has not been the downfall for investors and traders... the downfall was allowing themselves to get whipsawed by leverage, volatility and emotion.
The key to any arena of probability and tendency is to simplify the complex, to make your decisions easier.
The best way to make decisions easier is to have a process where you are making fewer of them.
Inactivity truly is the hallmark of the wise investor.
Very true. Things happen slowly daily and quickly by year. 10 years goes very fast.
Trading is a wealth transfer from impatient people to patient people
Hi Lee, thanks for your videos. Always a good listen. More of them would be great!
Thank you 🙏 Lee.
Today Tesla stock move up 4 percent,
because of EG group placed an order for 20 ,000 Tesla super chargers 🔌.
EG group it is one of 7 biggest oil distributors companies.
They are business 👨💼 people, and they are sending an message
to everyone: “ EVs are the future, and we are transforming “.
Excellent news for Tesla & Tesla investors, IMO?
100%!
My concern is that while Tesla is leading the way in certain tech, if it takes too long to execute then others may catch up and the advantage is lost. It is not just about having the best tech but being able to roll it out into saleable, scaleable products.
The Chinese are certainly ready to send vehicles over.
They never stop innovating however. They aren’t funded by a Fascist-style government like the Chinese, and they have zero competition in reality from even the best legacy makers.
Tesla executes and improves faster than any of legacy auto.
Tesla makes profitable cars, leading.
Tesla makes big battery packs, leading.
Tesla makes the supercharger,
Leading.
Tesla makes best auto software,
Leading.
Tesla vertically integrated, legacy outsourced 70 years ago, leading.
Ridiculous. Tesla is moving faster than any auto maker, ever. Legacy is way behind and is slowing and Tesla in maintaining blistering pace of innovation. The statement “the competition will need a telescope to see Tesla” has become true in every sense. Tesla is so much more than an auto maker and as various segments mature, they will recognize massive profits. FSD and Energy products are astonishing. The Tesla Bot is a wild card but it’s become a reality faster than I personally expected.
Be patient people in a couple years it will all show itself. Everybody gets caught up in this short term thinking. that’s the problem with society. They want everything right now. good things come to people who are patient.
Don’t feel bad for the people who bought flat screens when they were thousands of dollars. Their purchases fed the companies that now make them for a few hundred.
@@crtmojo2705 True. I paid £3k (about $4k at the time) for a 40 inch TV early 2000's. Last week I bought 2 x 50 inch smart TVs at auction for £30. How times change
Tesla price is always based on hope.
I sold 90% of my Tesla holding at a loss and switched to Nvidia and Microsoft 1 year ago . That was an excellent decision execution.
Telsa is always long term , long term based on hope .
One other thing that I realised is “ Elon musk is not friendly to the shareholders.”😢
@@limmike5339that’s a hard lesson I’ve learned myself more than once. It’s absolutely true that Elon’s temperament makes him utterly great as a captain of industry. But for a guy that supposedly loves his retail army and loathes short sellers, he has a funny habit of acting in ways-especially on earnings calls-that destroy his retail investors and enrich the bears and shorts. Once I got this through my thick skull I no longer was all in. Tesla is still the largest holding I have but I’m balancing it out. Just my $.02
I agree 100 %
Being “slow” could be related to timing. Remember Tesla has battery contracts, so 4680 ramped batteries have to have a place to go. Once they decide they need more batteries they can accelerate production by installing more lines…
Profits = expansion = production = profits = expansion = etc.
Wassup Lee, I haven't seen you or heard from u a while. I hope u r doing well. It's good to hear ur soothing voice again.
1:44 Quick clarification: should be “anecdote”, not “antidote”.
In 1930 they asked J.P.Morgan what the stock market would do. He responded it would fluctuate. He nailed it!!!
Plus Nov 30 we get the Cybertruck. Then it’s clear air for Rivian and Tesla for the next few years. Legacy can’t keep up with production or price.
Respect Lee I thought I was doing ok with 4000 shares but you are in a different league
I'm a Tesla bull, but all bets are off if demand for Tesla cars starts to drop significantly. One issue with EVs is the more EV's that are sold, the less demand for gas. This will drop the price of gas which in turn will make EVs less attractice. That's why Tesla needs to keep reducing the overall cost of ownership of their cars thru lower fuel cost, lower overall maintenance cost, better resale value, and reduce insurance cost thru Tesla insurance. I'm not a big fan of advertising, but I would love to see Tesla do some advertising to help educate the public on the benefits of EVs and to push back on some of the media mis-information (which gets a lot of revenue from ICE car ads).
Keep up the good work
We've missed you!
With legacy builders backing off on their EV efforts, it could mean more resources will be available for Tesla. By the time legacy starts pushing again, Tesla will be further ahead and in control of more resources than they are already in control of now.
I believe the next Tesla price run will be when the compact is finally given a release date and we see test mules on the road. It will be that torpedo in one of top arguments against EVs.
Sadly, this likely means the next major movement, as in what insane level of movement, will not happen until late 2026 at the earliest.
Agreed they have definitely pushed out gen 3 launch out later than most of us anticipated. :(
Interesting analysis. Although the “No demand” storyline seems to be completely inaccurate given where Q4 is going to end up. As always Tesla sells everything they make, and at a industry leading margin.
Auto sales are cyclic around recession. Low points correlate almost exactly with it. So 2024 and possibly 2025 will be slow years but 2026, 2027, and 2028 will be high growth years. That will more tan offset any recessionary dip.
I am not an Uber Bull but I do believe that Tesla has a solid line of varied products that are growing as quickly as possible. I see the Gen 3 model and Optimus driving the next growth spurt. Starting in late 2025 early 2026.
Your 18 Jan presentation disappeared as fast as it appeared - A GENUINE DISPLAY OF COURAGE & HONESTY - Yes we are fanboys - And, yes Elon has achieved unbelievable things - Your words were said from the heart - In every respect it was the little boy questioning the emperor's clothes - He is not naked - But nor is he a god - YOU HAVE GIVEN US THE REALITY CHECK WE ALL NEED - THANK YOU
Thanks for the great analysis. Tesla may not want to use batteries as large as the 4680 for the Tesla bots due to their size. Tesla may opt for a high voltage design. This could pay large dividends in energy efficiency for the motors and the necessary wiring and electronics to drive them. Therefore Tesla will likely opt for a high voltage battery. Likely limited by the amount of space and weight they want to reserve for the battery. The 4680 would preclude something like a 500 volt battery pack.
It will be interesting to see if Tesla elects for a removable battery for the Tesla bot. A Tesla bot, with a tiny backup battery could be designed to swap its own battery pack so that it could run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week between any necessary maintenance. Just mount the battery in the torso anywhere it can reach. That would definitely be useful on a factory floor that runs three shifts (24 hours).
Investor since 2012 here. Concerned/not concerned. I'm sure Tesla will get (much) bigger and will dominate. But... Elon's remarks about not growing 50% a year anymore, the lack of short-term revenue coming from FSD, the lack of updates or communication about 4680. I do think it has hurt the current stock price. If Tesla manages to squeeze more revenue from their software already, the stock would shoot up.
Your analysis is the best but getting fairly sparse recently. I hope you have something interesting to say more often. Good job.
He's out here creating content, which you are consuming for free. What have you created for others?
Thanks Lee, a very rational, cool synopsis for us shareholders and even for those who are on the fence maybe. Like SMR, I'm not smart enough to play with options so my only strategy is to hoddle. I see Tesla as a long term growth opportunity that "could" break out either way at almost any time so I just let it ride, so far up 10x from my initial investment. The problem I face is that I am retired and can’t really add much to the “pool” anymore. Your question as to when should you buy Tesla is and has always been, "whenever you can come up with the cash" ha! Who cares if it drops 50% shortly afterwards, you’re in it for the long run and it can easily 2-3 x again like it did this year. Just ride it out like the incredibly thrilling roller coaster it is, you either believe or you don’t and if you don’t, well buy something else, right? Life has a way of throwing curve balls and being retired with a fixed income, I have had to sell some shares over the last year or so and sometimes I thought it was bad timing but really, being up so much since initial invest, that’s just greed speaking. I have instilled my Tesla confidence in one daughter and somewhat in the other and that is enough for me. I know I will be frugal with my shares so they will have nice nest eggs if they do the same. What more can you ask for? Thank you Tesla and Elon and you too Lee, because you are mostly long term bullish, even though as I understand it you got burnt with some trades. My advice for what it is worth…stop trading….or….expect to get burnt once in a while. Just never go all in on any position except riding Tesla till at least 2030.
Unrivaled analysis as expected. Curious what your ballpark 12 to 24 month target is ?
I like the unofficial Tesla motto "Making the Impossible merely late".
I agree that investing in Tesla is a bumpy ride, but generally not much different that investing in any large cap growth stock. Predictions of where things will go with Tesla stock is very difficult as investing in Tesla is as much a bet on the company as it is in the wider economy. One thing I am certain about though, is if the wider economy grows Tesla will also grow, and potentially grow at an accelerated rate!
Tesla has so many intrinsic competitive advantages, in so many fields (car manufacturing, software, energy, robotics, IA, etc), all you have to do is stay calm and let time runs...It may take 8 years or 10 years or maybe 15 years to reach 20M cars/year, so what ? It only has an impact if your time horizon is short. But setting a short time horizon is intrinsically a mistake !
The problem is the stock is already priced for basically perfection
At $700 billion even if they get to 20 million cars (and they probably wont) the stock price is over values
Solar they have given up on its a low margin commodity business
Stationary storage will be exactly like solar
FSD will have multiple providers and the price will ultimately be $0
The robot is a moonshot worth nothing at the moment
There are cars and only cars
And the reality is starting to kick in. They will probably become like any other car maker. 5-10% net margins on maybe 5-15 million vehicles x 10 P/E = overvalued
Other companies can't secure the batteires for bots....
What? A bot probably can function just fine on a 0.5KWh battery. Battery for BOTs won't be a problem at all
Humans function on 2.4KWh/day of food, but the vast majority of that goes to simply keeping our bodies warm. A bot can probably function perfectly fine on as little as 0.3 KWh/day
@@kaya051285Stock is only priced for current EV sales. Ron Barron thinks 1500/share by 2030 on just BEVs alone, no energy, AI, robotics etc. it’s far from finished climbing.
Demand will vary, yes, but we have an entire ICE fleet to replace - and it will get replaced and the rate of replacement will increase, the economics will drive this
Highly geared options on a share are too scary for me to use.
I thought 4680 was only for cybertruck and Semi. LFP prices will probably continue to fall, so it seems like the obvious choice for model 2/robotaxi.
Have you factored in Tesla now selling their superchargers to 3rd parties like BP?
Stay the course
I think we could see a run up to the cybertruck launch now! Could take us up to the $250s
Sadly most investors are not engineers. Engineering is hard, Elon Musk told us. Transforming a paradigm is harder. It seems to me the time has come to subcontract out lower functions, like superchargers. The growing numbers required with BP and EG contracts requires competent and trustworthy metal bashing firms, of which there must by many in the legacy auto supply chain looking to diversify, perhaps in India. Tesla retaing the software IP development and integration functions. Same with Mega Packs.
More depends on the 4680 than believed. The delay in cybertrucks, Semi-trucks, and 25K sedan is directly related to the delay here. If they can actually achieve the high-volume, low cost, high energy density 4680, Tesla will burst forward with rapidly expanding production and out-sized profits. I hate "If."
Gen 3 at Austin. Oh lord DARK LEE IS BACK.
Personally I think FSD will take way longer than people think, but there is a silver lining. All the FSD data and training will be used for Teslabots, which are way way easier to manufacture, train and deploy. The big problem with FSD is people can die if it goes wrong - the risks with bots is far lower.
We might solve FSD in my lifetime but I expect Teslabots to be out there in businesses quite quickly and general use even before FSD is allowed with no restrictions on the roads.
Many of assume low margins but manufacturing improvements should help margins…
Sure from 10,000 feet but on the ground it makes no sense to ramp batteries before there are units to put them in… All the pieces need to be in place and batteries are just one piece albeit a big piece.
@@michaelsmithers4900MegaPack can soak up all excess battery capacity for the next decade, as can the Semi.
Lee, do you see Tesla 10Xing in the next 7 years or so?
I have really enjoyed your work. I am permanently out of Tesla as a result of Elon's X stuff and his obscene position on certain international conflicts. Thanks again, Lee.
Tesla is beavering away in the background with fsd, cybertruck, bot, new gigas etc. They are solving some of the most difficult problems like fsd and sometimes you can go down blind alleys and gave to change course. Be patient.
The future is uncertain when it comes to TIMING, but not with RESULTS when it comes to what Tesla is working on. That long TIME HORIZON that I had almost a decade ago is serving me well and while I never took a penny out... I console myself that I never intended to before 2030.
Things have changed and my reason for investing in Tesla has only GROWN OVER TIME while the volatility has lasted way longer and can be much fiercer as a result. I am willing to bear it.
Looking too far out may be too much for some, but this opportunity is so LARGE that it requires MORE FROM INVESTORS. I should have huge biceps from holding through all of the ups and downs! I forebear because while I don't know when any of these incredible things that are in the works WILL occur, I am confident in the fact that given the time I have dedicated to waiting, I will be RICHILY REWARDED.
DID YOU NOT SEE THE LIMITING FACTOR 4680 VIDEO! DARK LEE!
FFS unsubbing again, I'll come back when you get some perspective.
Cybertruck sales & production volumes are to be low according to Elon. Much less than 3 & Y
Doesn’t matter, it’s a halo effect. And he’s only speaking near-term…
jeez 8 figures?
Have been a fan for a while, but pretty poor form to sit here with “whoa is me, I’m down millions on paper” when he has been pushing much smaller investors to throw in all the way along. His exposure is not comparable to that of his viewers.
The nexus of technologies that Tesla is developing cannot be rivaled. The Chinese will remain software/AI deficient. The bad macro will prevent all easy paths to parity with Tesla. It has given Tesla more time to do things efficiently and profitably
Optimus could easily arrive before FSD or the Compact.
If the bot can be trained to build bots (an obvious use case) then you literally get exponential growth and all you need is a warehouse and some bins of parts.
Ah Lee, if only we could get you on Herb’s Tesla Bulls round table… my dream.
they are ramping the 4680's right now, why you think they are not?
By removing the stalks, Tesla show their cars are not meant to be driven.
If Tesla don't solve FSD within the next 3/4 years, TSLA stock price will plummet.
The problem with FSD is that it can't be a monopoly in which case if there are say 5 fully working versions are you going to pay $200/month if another fully working provider is charging $2/month?
LOL where do you guys get these thoughts from… it’s not dependent on FSD…
@@fractalelf7760 Musk said:
"Really the value of the company is primarily on the basis of autonomy. That's really, I think, the main driver of our value."
@@pauld3327 Yes he did, it’s also not a requirement. He also said Optimus will make the EV business pale in comparison. My point is the company is not dependent on it. Stalks are inline with removing unnecessary parts, not just an “FSD thing”.
@@fractalelf7760 Problem is FSD and Optimus are not there yet and in the meantime Tesla need to generate money by selling cars. And they will loose a lot os sales because of the stalkless design.
Elon has taken foot off the gas pedal - the promised land comes slower if at all
Elon isn't alone: others also see the economic uncertainties ahead and acting
Relax. Dont worry about tsla. It doesent matter. At all
What matters is Tesla execute their plan
It takes a delusional mind to think that at this stage, Tesla will hit 20 million cars by 2023. My take is a maximum of 10 million.
The target is 2030 and is obviously achievable given that Berlin and Texas are only 1/4 developed and the footprint required by the Compact is much smaller than the Y.
Still affordable cars is the most important things , talk this over 3 years . Don’t much care fuxking cybertruck
Another start of the Tesla economist meltdown. Challenged his last time. Jello opinion that will be followed by an announcement that he sold his in-laws position. Come out with it man. You hid for a few weeks while you wallowed in your own insecurities. Be firm one way or the other or get out of You Tube. We do not need fence sitters. We would respect an opinion right or wrong . Not marshmallow man. You came across that way.
100%. He will be crying over his millions in paper losses, “the sky is falling” all over again.
No stalks is gamer amateurism.
Telling Zelenskyy not to send his youth to defend their own country is embarrassingly dumb.
Not having industry experience is now showing.
Sending a countries youth to almost certain death is dumb? It’s not Elon who is dumb!
Weirdo
Congratulations on showing everyone here that you’re utterly clueless.