Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS/ANALYSIS (20240630a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ก.ค. 2024
- Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
EMAIL FOR TALK INFO: atpukrainetalk@gmail.com
TALK'S DRONE FUNDRAISER: shorturl.at/gnUV6
Del's open-source Russian loss stats:
onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
Bill's stats dashboard: www.ukrainewarstatistics.com/
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and TH-cam channel. www.redbubble.com/people/john...
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Paypal Donate: www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnn...
UA Supporter merch: uasupporter.com/atp
Check out this website of pro-Ukrainian inks:
www.heroyam.org/slava_ukraini
Discord: / discord
Videos/sources:
Hits/losses
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/Spartan_News1/status/18...
x.com/secretsqrl123/status/18...
x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/...
x.com/benreuter_IMINT/status/...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/18073...
x.com/RALee85/status/17203162...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1...
I noticed that in your
Strikes
x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1...
x.com/JayinKyiv/status/180709...
x.com/UkrReview/status/180712...
x.com/blyskavka_ua/status/180...
x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/NOELreports/status/1807...
x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/...
x.com/TrentTelenko/status/180...
_____
0:00 Start
0:10 Hits/losses
29:00 Strikes
40:30 Other
_____
DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSS DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Better late than never. G'day everyone hope you have a great day. 👍🇺🇦
Happy Sunday Graham 🤗
G’day all 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦 many thanks JP 👍🏻
Hi Bob!
@@greenhighlander7Mika my old mate, how’s it going 👍🏻🍷
Good morning
@@markb8468 G’day Mark 👍🏻🍷
Good morning Bob ☕ 🍳 🥐
Afternoon all, thanks JP.
All is Accordink to plan, Natasha! Good Morning Team, I hope everyone is well!
Hi Steve A and GTSY wordsmith
Hello Steve , 👋😊 Enjoy your day ☀️
Hi Steve, all is well for the moment 🤗 🌵
Good morning, everyone.
Slava Ukraini
Good day to you 🤗 🔱
Good Afternoon Jonathan and the ATP Team.
Mornin' Richard👋
@@stevea2909 Hi Steve A and GTSY
Hi Richard 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn and GTSY
Good afternoon Jonathan and ATP team.
Have a great Sunday 😊
Happy Sunday Ansel 🤗
Nearly first good morning all.
Hi Allan 🤗 ☕
Hi Team, Jonno and all wellthinking others, have a great Sunday!
hello Wolfje
Happy Sunday 🤗 🌵
@@_Mary_MHi Mary 🌸 🤗
Good evening Legendary Team
Good evening/morning George 🤗
Thanks JP, hello team. It's looking like the bump in tank numbers the other day was a fresh delivery, thrust to the front.
Hi Andrew 🤗
Thanks Jon. Cheers
I don't know why my comment was restricted but i believe in you and i want to thank you
Try it again.
Happens to me all the time. Even when it's completely innocuous.
Ivan, call sign, Black Knight. Ivan has been injured multiple times. He lost his right leg, then his left arm, his latest injury was the loss of two fingers. Unfortunately these where his last two fingers. Tis but a scratch, he said in Russian.
😁 RF in classics.
The emperor New Clothes H.C. Andersen
It is just a scratch Month Python
Thanks JP. Happy Sunday to our Ukraine loving community.☕️
Happy Sunday Lada ☕ ❤
I'm not on twitter, and am astonished to find out that presumably ordinary Russians posting in Memoriams have access to it and haven't worked out the truth of things yet!🤔
People only see what they want to see. We are a delusional species, Russians in particular.
Hi JP! Thanks👍
@18:00 mins JP you are Spot on and have a great Analysis if you know what I mean!!!
Hi Jason 🤗 stay safe 💪 🔱
👋
Hi to all you good people
Hello 👋 Peter 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 hiya
The unsung hero of this channel is Ivan with the tea.
Thank you
Good morning, ATP Team.
Hi 🤗
Thank you Jonathan! Slava UKraine! 💙💛✌️✌️✌️🩷
The hit on the grad was huge followed by the shock wave that was some strike 🇺🇦✌️🇬🇧
I saw that, it looked a strange almost reddish color too 🔥
Thanks Johnathan and the entire Team for the update … 💙💛💙
Thank you for the information provided by your good self keep smiling and be happy glory to Ukraine slava Ukraine pryvit
Hi all!
G’day Mika 👍🏻🍷
Hi Mika!
@@stevea2909 Hi Steve!
Hello dear Mika 👋
🤗🌠🌏🌎🌍✨🤗
@@smith...1 Hi smithy!
Good morning JP. Another excellent video. SLAVA UKRAINI from the United States
Thanks Jonothan. Hi everyone.
Hello 👋 🤗
Hey JP, Thx for the update. Concerning the cycling out of old Soviet gear for Western kit. I think we may be seeing some of that Soviet gear for a future push into Russia. I think Reporting from 🇺🇦, Denis and 🇺🇦matters have mentioned build up of gear near Kharkiv combat zone. Since Western kit is still blocked inside 🇷🇺 I suppose we will be seeing another push into 🇷🇺 by the RDK/FoRL etc in the coming months. This war needs to come back to 🇷🇺 proper for it to conclude in favor of 🇺🇦. If I where a betting man, I would guess we will see more localized counter strikes in 🇺🇦 and feints inside Kurksk/Belgorod. Or possibly a semi pincer to put Rostov on Don under pressure to break the logistical chain. Arm chair general signing out 😉
Ukraine has the will and determination to overcome and defeat Russia. However, one aspect needs to be resolved before Ukraine is able to achieve this objective. The USA still determine the “rules” under which Ukraine may execute their operations. They are still being taunted by Russia, who are aware of Ukraine being prevented from attacking targets within a certain radius of Russia with missiles.Allow Ukraine to determine targets as they think fit and this war will end expeditiously.
Morning JP Greetings troops 👍😊
Hi John 🤗
Afternoon or G'day all 😊👋
G’day AJ 👍🏻🍷
🙂👋
@@bobrichards6696 Evening Bob 😊🍻
@@greenhighlander7 Terve Mika 😊👋
👋Hi, AJ
that pic of S-300's is from 2022, it was stated below.
Hi, haven't been here lately.
How's the pup?
@@joekeegan-yc4nm he is ok. he had nose mites and he got meds for them.
@@greenhighlander7
👍
I watched the video of the Bradley Ambush..........
Note to Myself.....Eh Don't F..k with a Bradley
Yup
Covert Cabal posted a video of how many T-80 tanks Russia has left and, on satellite, there are a little over 300 T-80’s left - down from 1200 pre-war.
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are dying on indescribable strikes. Who is going to listen/discriminate to the Russian few, Russia must pay for the losses in Ukraine
A late morning for my breakfast in Ontario, Canada.
Hi Johnathan, two points to note.
1. The photograph of the S300 stockpile was just over 2 years old !
2. Prof Allan Lichtmann (The Keys to The Whitehouse) had an interview with CNN.
Basically , he was saying that Biden stepping down, at this stage , would not be good !
Some of the top candidates to replace him are state governers, Newsome (California), Whitmer (Michigan) and Pritzker (Illinois)
Bumper News AND Analysis !✨
How lucky are we ? 🌻
Almost too lucky for me to handle. 🤗
These numbers indicate to me that Russia is running out of tanks and apc.They are replacing them with civilian vehichles to transport troops.Arty systems continue to take huge losses , awsome!!
Recommended: Covert Cabal
His latest on tanks. 😊
What is happening when I try to communicate earnestly
TH-cam is weird
IMPORTANT
J.P I hope you well answer my question if you see my comment. I watch a pro Ukrainian video last night and the guy was very complex about how donations and fund raisers were being handled when it comes drones. He explain that frontline drone operators needed replacement components to repair the thousands of damage drones they have in many repair shops all over. With the proper components they can repair 15 drones to one bought drone. I am certain that many of us are not aware of this problem but I can see the urgency for utube channels that fund raise money for drones could get way more drones by sending the components that they need and well certainly go a long way in winning this war.
Very interesting
@@ATPGeo Thanks for your reply back, I hope you look into this matter a little bit more.
I’d say the average of over 1000 Russian loses per day is more than the last “2 weeks”
Would be interesting to know how long the 1000 daily average has been for in reality
S-300's in storage but are they operational ?
Considering the fact that they took some off the islands in the Sea of Japan plus some from Vladivostok .
Now that is a bloody long way to shift S-300's if there are operational systems only 250 km away .
So perhaps they have no shortage of TELs but not enough radar & command trucks.
Good morning from the Chicago oblast.
Superb reporting and analysis as per usual.
What is the opinion on the Zalushny replacement manoevre at this stage-it looks like after a bit of a learning/adjustment curve, more efficient and effective initiatives are emerging on an overall viewing of the last few months?
Realise logistics etc has varied but steady progress seems emergent recently- is it all just down to replete ammo?
Jonathan,
There seems to be a number of solar powered portable generators on the market that might be useful for the Ukrainian civilians for the upcoming winter season. Any interest in raising funds to purchase some for Ukrainian civilians for the winter?
Simply do not generate power quickly. Cloudy in winter, short days, weak UV penetration.
I was thinking the advancements in lithium batteries might make a difference.
How reliable is a 40 + year old AA system lying for years in an open compound?
Or artillery barrels after 8,000 rounds?
By the way - When it is a regular update and when it is a "bumper" update? :D
The Soviet red army had so much firepower advantage near the end of the war they used to say quantity has a quality all of its own.
The Muscovites *_still_* say that...
S-300 missiles production for the newest systems continues, it's true. At which rate is unknown.
Hey JP, I watch a lot of true crime channels here on YT, and they always avoid saying the words "rape" and "suicide" out of fear of getting demonotized. Don't know if you're still having an issue with demonotized, but of so, this could be contributing to it. Really sad how we cant say adult words on adult channels.
27:20 I think the end of the sentence is indicating they see the fact that the cupboards of S-300s far from the front that are being emptied and not refilled is itself evidence that the stocks are dwindling.
1st LSA Woo Hoo Chris's mum does the 155th Naval Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet......
🥇 maybe share with Chris's mom? 😝
@@surpriseitsus9622 😅🤣😂
Hi ATP,
Long-time watcher, first-time commenter here.
I just wanted to point out that Xavier Tytelman, who you called a random dude in the video, is not actually random and usually well informed.
I don't watch much french tv anymore as I live abroad but as far as I know he is the only competent commenter left on french tv when it comes the ukraine war and in particular aviation.
He has been to Ukraine numerous times those past 2 years, to deliver goods or interview soldiers, in particular french people from the international legion.
I consider him a good source, in french, of information on the war.
Edit : Just adding a link to his youtube page for info : www.youtube.com/@XavierTytelman/videos
Excellent info
Thanks for this.
Your analysis of the coordination drone/artillery , you made another little error. Once the target is acquired by pushing the button, you'll not have to push the button twice for the same one, it is acquired and followed automatically, and the corrections are transmitted automatically, that's what the comment said.
Love techno music for 35 years☺
30,000 KIA per month gives 600,000 by end of August.
Will there be many new-ish tanks left by then.
Always informative.
Thanks
The airbase. Ukraine has used drones effectively in the past to strike airbases. Why not send a fleet of drones? Missiles may be more efficient, but drones could do a lot of damage.
I think the issue is the journalists need to do journalism as opposed to copying and pasting official statements in particular when the statements come from a known lying entity.
Distributers of NEWS should be held accountable for being subjective instead of being objective. If a Nurse/Doctor/Legal notes can be used in court of Law for ordinary employees for writing subjective information, then these outlets must be held to account for being sensationalist. The same should apply for YT click baits. False or misleading information purely for promoting their agenda for profit.
According to D. Davidov, the majority of vehicles on the train were T--64's.
I've often thought about how Ukrainians use their artillery spotting drones. I assumed they'd use some basic trigonometry on the drone to accurately position the target. Looks like I was right.
Transport train ! sounds like inside inteligence to get that accurate !
Succhumimus channel is good. And he has a very soothing voice.
But what is that heavy accent?
@@davinki2885 I'm not sure. I can't place it.
...and writes a good book.
@@davinki2885
He lives in Tiawan, I believe.
@@sirsmeal3192 didn't he write the childrens book?
Sup bois
22:03 Was a kraken in chasiviyar
I have complete faith in the AFU on the battlefield, what is worrying me is the far right in Europe and the USA at the moment. We need to prepare for the horrible possibility of reduced support for Ukraine by Putin friendly governments. France is very ominous.
What have we learned about that rumour of the destruction of that S500 in Crimea?
No new news on the hit, but I dug up some info. The S-500 regiment has two battalions. Each battalion has two batteries. The attack apparently took out parts of one battery. The battery was located west of the Kerch bridges.
- Zona Militar
@@sirsmeal3192 Thanks, my friend.
Reasonably it is also a degree of high tech targeting between the sides. If Ukraine have 70 % high tech targeting and Russia have only 5 % AND there are 10 times more exposed Russian targets to start with the casualities get really scued to Orcs.
I watched a video of a russian power station turbine destroy itself recently & someone said in the comments it was either because of the bearings or the lubricant.
I do not understand why there is not a fundamentally better link between NATO/Western military intelligence, Ukrainian military and media outlets so that the narrative around attacks is not more immediate and can nip the ruzzian attempts of twisting events to their advantage. I completely understand the need for operational security, but any spin or speculation from a pro-Ukraine source within known parameters (e.g. Ukraine does not target civilians, therefore the beach incident must be a result of anit-air defence) has to be better. We all heard the reports almost as soon as they occurred so it cannot be the case that military sources are not able to press release a headline saying ruzzian missiles were responsible to deflect the misinformation from ruzzia.
Hi J P, have a look at the russian night witches from ww2
They flew harrassment mostly against airfields. They would fly over at the same time night after night and drop a bomb.
You had said that you were worried when the losses are closer to equal and liked when the value of losses are with Ukraine. Please remember on the days where loses are closer are on days where the Ukrainian's are attacking. If they are taking ground and Russian loses are still higher just not as high is ok. Ukraine is taking ground on those days. I would rather see the Ukrainian's lose an AFV then a van. If they lose an AFV they are most likely walking away, not so much in a van. We'll both agree we like it better when Ukraine loses as few as possible. Whatever that number ends up being for the day. Thanks for all your hard work.
What is concerning is the fact that Russia now probably has access to artillery, shells and missiles, tanks and other armored vehicles, and other weaponry from North Korea. And there's the report about North Korea sending soldiers to Russia.
This might encourage aome countries to actually send soldiers as well into Ukraine.
We might see a wider conflict.
It is steadily widening, and both sides are becoming more aligned.
@@sirsmeal3192 Yes. China is ramping up the pressure on the Philippines in the Indo-Pacific and becoming more expressive in its actions against Taiwan.
That puts a lot of pressure on the US as the Philippines has a Mutual Defense Treaty with the US. The South China Sea is a vital trade route and very geopolitically important for the US to just let China do what it wants (dominate the SCS and the region).
China's aggressiveness might bring about a miscalculation that could potentially lead to a war of incalculable proportions between China, the Philippines and the United States as well as their respective allies like NATO,
Japan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and others.
China is perhaps taking advantage of the war in Ukraine, thinking that the US would hesitate in doing anything against China's aggressive expansionism while the Russo-Ukraine War is on-going.
That's why China is being more aggressive in the Indo-Pacific. But like what I said, a single miscalculation by China or the Philippines might spark a new conflict.
North Korea is no more than a Chinese vassal state. Kim agreeing to supply armaments and soldiers to Russia must have the consent of China.
There's much reason to believe that China aims to tie up NATO and the US deeper in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. The more resources the US and NATO pour in Ukraine, the less western resources China would face in the Indo-Pacific.
That's my conspiracy theory. 🫣
@@rainieresguerra6519 I think the more EU countries pour into Ukraine, the more they gear up war production to backfill. China is losing that bet.
Why have a beach open in a war zone?
is the comms equipment put under special equipment for russian losses
Usually a separate category at the start
Unless a Ukrainian put his or her callsogn on that Ukranian train strike video, there's something really abhorrent to me that a russian or Russians have happilyembraced "the wrong side" of history as a handle for mocking their involvement in this shtass war. Yes, this is making an assptiom that that's what they meant. It could just be meant in the sense of "on the wrong side" as in the wrong team... But I kinda don't think that's the case.
I wouldn't assume they have run out of Russian vehicles/tanks, they use Western vehicles because the crew survive much more, and what they're running of, is people....
👋
I am uncertain about the female prisoners, as Putin could be using the war to get rid of his unwanted people.
He is definitely using the war to get rid of 'unwanted' people -prisoners, ethnic minorities, debtors etc.
I'm not ok with the statement that says that the claim of 36 drones were downed in ruSSia is false ! All the drones reached the ground, AA or not AA defense ! 🤣🤣🤣
12:30 "If I was (sic) to predict where Russia would be if the war was going really well after 2 1/2 years..." Um...if they had been doing really well, there would be no war at this time!
Its a separate branch of the military,like ground and air forces.
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🛢️🚀🎯🔥🇷🇺🛢️🔥👍🇺🇦 !
As for getting restricted JP can you not put a disclaimer at the start of your posts giving a warning for viewer discretion? The Sun (yes I know) puts up videos on youtube daily showing loads of hits and destroyed buildings.
If it works for them........
Those videos would still be restricted on the algorithm and without advertising etc.
because the sun is recognised by youtube as a news channel it can get away with showing stuff like that without being restricted
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🚂🚀💥🔥🇷🇺🚂🔥👍🇺🇦 !
Johnathan, have any Russian aircraft been shot down by either S300 or S400?.
Yes. Several Su-24 and Su-25s and others.
@@sirsmeal3192 thanks, I have seen the reports but not one that actually said that the planes were downed by those systems.
@paulsweeney6042
You can look at where the jets were and what systems it would take to hit them. Those over Rostov, Sea of Azov and Crimea are far enough from air defense sites to require medium to long-range missiles, or likely the S-300/400.
@@sirsmeal3192 thank you
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺🏭🚀💥🔥🇷🇺🏭🔥👍🇺🇦 !
Another Bradley lost. Not good.
16:34 video 3 mounths ago. Sky horse jts smart or (idiot for me)Money blue tick.
Russian and Chino LIES ALWAYS LIES
👋🏼🫶🏼🇺🇦🇬🇧
You often make these kind of baseless statements giving your reasoning as to why something is happening without any actual evidence or knowledge on the particular subject at the time.
Russia would have sent the s500 to crimea likely because it’s meant to be specialised to hit med range ballistic missiles.
So yes they can have a lot of left over s300 batteries and still choose to send s500 somewhere without that indicating they have no other option.
when Russian propaganda release a story there is only one story, papers have very little option but to report it. Its there job. by the time a contradictory story comes out it is old new no one is interest in that story, that is why there is little or no contradiction to Russian proper gander. If you want to counter proper gander you need to get the Ukraine story out quicker, even if its only half truth. Do not keep complaining about Western Media coverage if there is no other published view when the story brakes.
Jonathan,the footage with the bradley and the 2 russian apcs happened in end of march.Why are you re reporting from dodgy unknown X users?!?Why dont you go straight to the best sources instead to get relevant and reliable information about Ukraine?!?
I have been meaning to write to you about this issue I have,small criticism.You have multiple times done what I call lazy journalism by showing a post from some x account that it is false in its claims.Example for that is a month ago maybe when you re reported about the first Ukrainian convicts that are on the frontlines already.That was false but that is what happens when you rely entirely on getting your information from the worst place ever instead of going to official Ukrainian channels on the other platform
@secretsqrl123 come on my show some time 2pm Dallas time
546,699 K.I.A 😵🇷🇺soldiers⚰️🪦👍🇺🇦 !
🇺🇦🎯🇷🇺✈️🚀💥🔥🇷🇺✈️🔥👍🇺🇦 !