SORRY FOR THE DELAY. THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW THIS VIDEO HAS BEEN RESTRICTED, EVEN THOUGH I HAVE BLURRED STUFF OUT. TH-cam IS BEING REALLY TIGHT WITH ME AGAIN.
Tried to post this several times already, very good news. The shut down of the steel arc furnaces in the Oskol Plant in Voronezh region, is important. The electric arc furnaces, in which the metal had solidified, stopped. It may take several months for them to start up again. Russia really needs this high quality steel for military purposes, and it is the only factory of this kind in Russia. Great job Ukraine.
Good morning/afternoon everyone! Thanks Jonathan. Question for the group: If these motorcycles are so prevalent on the front lines, is it time to dust off the Gatling guns. I am sure the Ukrainians can automate these in some ways so they can be operated remotely. There was that one reported case outside of Avdiivka. I am not sure why this hasn't been utilized more.
Good morning, everyone. A joke from Kyiv. A Russian soldier calls home from Ukraine. - Did you take Kyiv? - No. - Did you take Kharkiv? - No - What did you take then? - A blender, a washing machine and two fur coats
I have a theory concerning the up and down Russian armoured losses. Basically Ukraine is attacking the Russian logistic infrastructure. Any build up is attacked so the Russians are using a sort of as you need it supermarket supply system. However supermarkets at times run out. The same with the Russians if they have heavier losses than normal it leaves them short for the next series of attacks until the next trainloads of vehicles come in. However moving personnel is easier and their numbers will only show a smaller loss. I think the Russians have a supply problem.
Very good news. The shut down of the steel arc furnaces in the Oskol Plant in Voronezh region, is important. The electric arc furnaces, in which the metal had solidified, stopped. It may take several months for them to start up again. Russia really needs this high quality steel for military purposes, and it is the only factory of this kind in Russia. Great job Ukraine.
Hi Peter, happy hump 🐫 day 😊 packing up my husband for a 3 week trip. I did get both dogs in the pool yesterday. Ranger jumped back in to play, Archie thought that was a horrible idea 😂
Hi John, I’ve been following your recent discussions about the erratic nature of Russian tank losses, and I wanted to share a plausible explanation that might shed some light on the situation. Explanation for Fluctuating Tank Losses Erratic Tank Arrivals Due to Shortages: Logistical Constraints: While transport logistics to the front lines remain operational, the primary issue is the shortage of tanks. As Russia depletes its inventory, the intervals between shipments grow longer because less and less material is available. Grouped Shipments: Due to the high risk of targeting, Russia likely waits until they can send a full trainload that includes not only tanks but also ammunition and other vehicles to the front rather than dispatching multiple smaller, vulnerable trains. This results in tanks arriving in larger groups at less frequent intervals. Drone Density and Deep Penetration: High Drone Activity: Ukrainian forces have effectively used drones to target Russian tanks. The density of drones and their ability to penetrate deep into enemy territory make stationary tanks highly vulnerable. Immediate Deployment: To mitigate the risk of tanks being targeted while stationary, Russian forces might deploy them immediately upon arrival. This tactic ensures the tanks are used in combat operations rather than becoming sitting targets. Immediate Use and High Losses: Operational Imperative: Given the high risk of drone strikes, newly arrived tanks are likely put to use immediately. This results in intense periods of tank engagement and subsequent high loss rates. Combat Role Shifts: Tanks are also being modified and used in unconventional roles, such as heavily armored troop carriers, to enhance their survivability. However, this adaptation doesn't fully mitigate the threat, leading to fluctuating loss rates as these modifications are tested. Additional Observations Use of All Available Resources: There have been reports of wounded soldiers being sent directly back to the front lines, even with severe injuries like broken legs and arms. This shows that all available resources, whether personnel or material, are being used immediately. The same urgency applies to deploying newly arrived tanks and other equipment. Supporting Observations Satellite Imagery and Intelligence Reports: Satellite imagery showing the movement of tanks by rail to the front lines can provide direct evidence of erratic arrival patterns. These movements often correspond with spikes in tank losses as reported by sources like the Oryx Blog. Field Reports and Analyst Assessments: Reports from military analysts and think tanks such as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) often provide insights into the broader logistical and strategic challenges faced by Russian forces. These reports can contextualize the erratic tank losses. Conclusion The combination of erratic tank arrivals due to shortages, the strategy of grouping shipments to include tanks, ammunition, and other vehicles to mitigate risk, and the high density of Ukrainian drones leading to immediate deployment of tanks is a plausible explanation for the observed fluctuation in Russian tank losses. This pattern highlights the ongoing logistical challenges and tactical adaptations in response to the evolving dynamics of the conflict. Additionally, the immediate use of all available resources, including injured soldiers, underscores the urgency driving these decisions. Hope this helps clarify the situation!
Good morning JP. I had to decline my son's invitation to spend the fourth of July with him at his inlaws they are MAGA and I really don't know if I could stop myself from saying that I don't respect them. Cheers 🍻
@ericmaclaurin8525 like JP says we need to fight for our democracies. I had one adult say to me , I am not going to vote. I said, people died for the right to... you got to.
It only says it destroyed 2 Sea Drones, didn't mean it was the only 2 drones in the area and would highly doubt it would be. If it was recon, then there were a good dozen or more not far away and probably around the corner a few miles ago.
Part of the problem is that they can't always use the air defense if they are putting all their flyable planes in the air during an attack. Need to stop the uav before reaching the airbases.
Hi , the radar coverage in Ukraine at the airfields and other military targets I am assuming is as good as they can get it , let's not forget that the civilians are also demanding protection for the cities and their people . I am no expert but I guess some of the air cover that " should " be protecting those helicopters and planes have been used to protect Kiev and the other major cities , so that is the state of the air cover until more arrives. Steve Daniels
They are just being more overt with their escalation management. They are basically saying to Russia "Look what happened in Kharkiv, every time you try to expand the front we will give Ukraine the means to seriously hurt you." Infuriating that their focus is still escalation management, not giving Ukraine the means to win.
What would be useful to know but unlikely to find out is the amount of Russian artillery across the front. Russian artillery losses are high but against what backdrop, ie 56 artillery when Russia has 60 on the front would be massive however 56 out of 1000 would only be a spit in a bucket.
There has been a lot of Ukranian Radars taken out recently. I know people are pretty angry about planes and choppers being taken out but maybe this is contributing. And as for moving aircraft around and quick dispersal, that’s fine, but how can you do maintenance on the airframes and still have it ready to scramble at a moments notice. Sure hardened shelters would be ideal, but there are a lot of things that “need” priority.
♥Artillery systems can be repaired and seriously wounded soldiers can be sent back to the front (something like a Monty Python skit - the Black Knight). In these circumstances it is easy to overstate Russian losses.♥♥
With the fluctuating daily tank count, it could be that Ukrainians have enhanced their intelligence. With certain restrictions lifted, they can now target tanks as they approach the front lines, rather than waiting until the actual assaults as they did in the past.
Yes, that happens a lot. I re phrase a comment 3 to 4 times before my comment will stick, other times, no problem. I think it depends on reporting trolls.
Thanks always, Jonathan. Has anyone reported on the effect of war casualties on Russian demographics? Unreliable Russian stats list around 7,000,000 males 18-30. That estimate doesn't include the 1-2 million that left. Point: they have already lost 10% + breeding males: brightest have emigrated and best vets (of a poor lot) soldiers have been erased already.
It's ok, it is not like they already had a declining population, pre war. I'm sure none of the returning veterans will end up with PTSD and or major substance abuse issues also taking them out of the breeding pool.
Nice comprehensive analysis. I look forward everyday to your reports, as we get little to none in the US. We get a lot about russia,mostly propaganda sadly
24:50 - When it comes to strikes inside Russia, the US administration is still stubbornly playing at overall escalation management, publicly declaring a tit-for-tat strategy for allowing deeper strikes with provided Western weapons. It seems all of Ukraine's allies are taking directions from the US on this - at least Ukraine is taking their cues from them even as it concerns the use of other nation's weapons beyond the range allowed by the US.
Good evening JP👋🙂 Good evening team👋🙂 Vote Dalek! Oh a great vote Dalek line: the doctor will not save you this time, the conservatives have gutted the NHS! If you have not seen the political Dalek videos search “vote dalek”
If Ukraine Just put up tents over their aircraft, the Russians would not know if aircraft where there or not, if the Ukrainians put up more tents than aircraft they have this would confuse the Russians even more. I appreciate this is not a very good idea but at least it is a cheap and quick start to defend aircraft, initially they do not have to even be camouflage nets. You have shown cadges built around Russian aircraft, at least that meanes Russia is winning in that area.
Iwas would go as far to say I am pissed with the Recon Drones! Cause there is absolutely no point in F-16s coming if they are just going to destroy them. And as far as I am concerned I don't understand why Jets or Helicopters are sitting around if they are not under Repair? If they are not under repair or upgrade they should always be in the sky doing something. Why is it I feel as though the entire Air Force needs some training or something. I don't understand, unless they have No Weapons for them. But I have not heard either way basically. I know we have stuff for the F-16s and some stuff for the Su Jets and Mig Jets, but I just don't know how much. But we have an issue here with Recon Drones. And I really do not understand why more is not being done to solve this problem. We have had this problem forever it feels like!!! I swear I say "eyes in the skies boys" more than I say anything else in one single 24 hour period. Whether working or not! I am a Drone crazyman! I freaking HATE Them. It was the Best and Worst thing Ukraine could've implicated in this war and every other war from here on out. I get it, we/they at the time needed them more than anything to stop Russia! But boy oh boy, nothing drives me more crazy. I swear I dream of Drones! I will never ever fly another one in my life! After I am done here!😇 🖕Putin!!! Come get some and stop sending your people baby lala! What a P.O.S. Excuse my language! Thanks JP, Team!
Regarding the F-16 there's rumours that they will be stationed in nearby countries to protect them for possible strikes, need to keep an eye for further developments.
@@WorldCitizen0000 Yes there were but it is not going to happen. We can't, US won't allow it and Nato won't allow it. But they will operate in Nato Countries often and will go to Nato Countries for Repairs and Upgrades when need be. But we cannot station them in any Nato Countries at least. So really I don't see them going anywhere but here, and even if a non Nato nation offered to host them, we would have to get Permission from the US, Nato, and the Countries Providing them to Ukraine. In almost every scenario the US has to give Permission for them to go anywhere basically other than Ukraine. Cause they are the Manufacturers. Just like the countries providing them had to ask the US if they could provide their old F-16 they are replacing to Ukraine. So lots of Political B.S. in there. But I think that Nato will play a game of them routinely going to Nato Countries. And even in a Alert, if they can get off the ground before an incoming attack I think they will head toward Nato Nations for the rest of the Night at least. But if they go to Nato countries other than for that, I think it will be Repairs and upgrades, not even Maintenance will they go their for. Maybe once in a while if they are their for something already, but only for Maintenance No they won't. But there was talk of it, but as far as Nato and the US have said, it can't happen. But it will be here and there under the Radar as we would say in America. Russia's Satellite Systems suck if they work at all. So unless they are getting Chinese Sat. Intel, they really shouldn't know. But the reason is, Cause if Russia were to attack the Base they were at in a Nato Country, you have now Invoked Article 5 of the Nato Treaty and we will all be at war. Which shit I say let's just get the shit over with. Cause at this point I think it may end up, ending that way anyways!
The problem appears to be having anti-aircraft systems that can destroy Iskandar missiles. At the moment that means Patriot or Iris-T are needed. The recent attacks have all been Iskandar missiles which can be configured with either cluster or bunker busting unitary warheads. The airbases are not being attacked by drones and cruise missiles which may indicate that the available short and medium range air defence is sufficient for those threats.
Can you do a spot on Ukrainian losses, military and civilian to date, it’s important the pro- Ukrainian community gets the truth from all angles, to see their sacrifices, Western media sources vary wildly, no doubt you know from your contacts.
From the American Colonies to the British Empire ---- Thanks for the Day OFF tomorrow! Serious note Wondering if Ukraine's increase of attacks on trucks and fuel trucks are effecting tank movement. no fuel no movement using golf carts and motorcycles doesn't move enough fuel so it takes 3 days to get enough supply to launch an attack
You sure that word wasn't libertarian? I know they're big fans of voting for politicians who don't believe in individual rights and, obviously, education.
June has been catastrophic in terms of the artillery systems Mordor has lost. Mordor is short of about 4.5 million workers which is affecting productivity, factories are struggling and this will probably include drone factories. 💙💛
I can think of a couple: 1. It is a decoy and deliberately placed to test RU capabilities 2. It makes resupplying and repairing it easier if not got off road fuel trucks available
I think the variable tank losses are indicative that tanks are withdrawn from lower significance engagement. This means that they are either running low on tanks or that they are trying to gather a mass force. Given the depth of Russian stockpiles I think they have withdrawn tanks to train crews and have proficient crews ready to counter Ukrainian assaults later.
So far the Russian military hasn't shown that level of forward thinking. It certainly appears that there is significant pressure from above for immediate results that precludes significant training and logistical planning.
Hey Jonathan, just wondering if you heard anything about whether or not Ukraine has used Storm Shadow & SCALP missiles to hit targets 100 kilometers or deeper inside Russia? Have they been used at all in Belgorod oblast? If not, why not? (only if you know of course)
All the Russian strikes in your Canal are reported for "WarVehicleTracker", whit a Poland flag. Seems this person only report Russian strikes. Suspicious!!!
Hi JP, I am again not convinced by the video of the Helicopter and 4 support vehicles getting destroyed. Once again there is really dodgy editing and there is no clear evidence that there was significant damage - no vehicles are really visible when the missle explodes 19:29, other than possibly the Mi-24 but that could equally be smoke, and the footage of the vehicles after the explosion appears to show everything in tact. That is not to say it is not the case they were hit, but if so why not show their destruction. There is also a possiblity that the Mi-24 was a decoy as does not appear to be refueled or rearmed as no fire / explosion shown and no visible damage on the final pass. Either way the video has achieved its aim of pissing people off and painting a picture that Ukr is not able to look after its value air assets so sowing the seeds of doubt as to whether Ukr is ready for the F16s. So either they lost a Mi-24 or it is great Psyops by the Ru - neither is good for Ukr
The drones are so small and made from non ferrous materials making them incredibly difficult to spot and bring down. Tge Slinger system is designed specifically to deal with this issue. Yesterday's losses were both inoperable SU27s the rest took off and are safe. Again, the drone was tiny and almost impossible to knock out or even originally, detect its presence.
In the summary table, you missed what I think of as one of the better stats. That is the 30 day rolling average. It gives an idea of current average losses. 93 GRADs canibalized means that rus was able to build at least that many of the new GRAD. Maybe more if they are able to build some tubes. But, you'd think the tube is relatively simple. Maybe there is some electronics in the launch mechanism they can't recreate? They need slower flying aircraft to deal with high flying drones, like the YAK-52 or the AT-802U: air at802u 2023 08 04 -Meet America’s New Attack Aircraft; The Sky Warden www.youtube. com/watch?v=OloKDSNe10U 4000 lbs payload -17 hard points -8hr loiter Is a prop crop sprayer that was adapted for fire fighting, then for military Tit for Tat. Rus already has problems with wheat fires, Ukr should use long range drones to encourage that problem! You can't outline t-Rumps policies about Ukraine war because he has NONE. Just more incoherent babble. His aids may have something they can spoon feed him.
SORRY FOR THE DELAY. THIS IS THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW THIS VIDEO HAS BEEN RESTRICTED, EVEN THOUGH I HAVE BLURRED STUFF OUT. TH-cam IS BEING REALLY TIGHT WITH ME AGAIN.
No need to apologize Jonno.😊
Those bastards, I wonder of pro putler channels have the same problems?
@@surpriseitsus9622 What I thought PutinTube was a pro Putin channel.
@@surpriseitsus9622 What I thought PutinTube was a pro Putin channel.
Tried to post this several times already, very good news. The shut down of the steel arc furnaces in the Oskol Plant in Voronezh region, is important. The electric arc furnaces, in which the metal had solidified, stopped. It may take several months for them to start up again. Russia really needs this high quality steel for military purposes, and it is the only factory of this kind in Russia. Great job Ukraine.
@@dgodsell1731 had to double read that… “arc” and “orc”… 😬
Good morning/afternoon everyone! Thanks Jonathan.
Question for the group: If these motorcycles are so prevalent on the front lines, is it time to dust off the Gatling guns. I am sure the Ukrainians can automate these in some ways so they can be operated remotely. There was that one reported case outside of Avdiivka. I am not sure why this hasn't been utilized more.
Good Afternoon Jonathan and the ATP Team.
Hi Richard 🤗
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn and GTSY
Good morning, everyone.
A joke from Kyiv.
A Russian soldier calls home from Ukraine.
- Did you take Kyiv?
- No.
- Did you take Kharkiv?
- No
- What did you take then?
- A blender, a washing machine and two fur coats
It's Kiev in every atlas here in Europe still ! So why bother mis-spelling?
Another day closer to victory 💙💛
Thx legend 🎉🎉🎉🎉
🥉👏👏👏👏👍😊
I have a theory concerning the up and down Russian armoured losses. Basically Ukraine is attacking the Russian logistic infrastructure. Any build up is attacked so the Russians are using a sort of as you need it supermarket supply system. However supermarkets at times run out. The same with the Russians if they have heavier losses than normal it leaves them short for the next series of attacks until the next trainloads of vehicles come in. However moving personnel is easier and their numbers will only show a smaller loss. I think the Russians have a supply problem.
I think you may be correct. The Ukrainan war on the Russian logistics is starting to bear fruit in very visible ways now.
Very good news. The shut down of the steel arc furnaces in the Oskol Plant in Voronezh region, is important. The electric arc furnaces, in which the metal had solidified, stopped. It may take several months for them to start up again. Russia really needs this high quality steel for military purposes, and it is the only factory of this kind in Russia. Great job Ukraine.
WOW, U-tube let me post this, at fifth attempt! Thanks!!!!!
They slip up once in a while. Keep posting!
@@dgodsell1731 I share your fustration with posts not staying up.
Gday Team, Jonno and everyone who has a heart for Ukraine, have a great Wednesday!
Hi Peter, happy hump 🐫 day 😊 packing up my husband for a 3 week trip.
I did get both dogs in the pool yesterday. Ranger jumped back in to play, Archie thought that was a horrible idea 😂
Hi John,
I’ve been following your recent discussions about the erratic nature of Russian tank losses, and I wanted to share a plausible explanation that might shed some light on the situation.
Explanation for Fluctuating Tank Losses
Erratic Tank Arrivals Due to Shortages:
Logistical Constraints: While transport logistics to the front lines remain operational, the primary issue is the shortage of tanks. As Russia depletes its inventory, the intervals between shipments grow longer because less and less material is available.
Grouped Shipments: Due to the high risk of targeting, Russia likely waits until they can send a full trainload that includes not only tanks but also ammunition and other vehicles to the front rather than dispatching multiple smaller, vulnerable trains. This results in tanks arriving in larger groups at less frequent intervals.
Drone Density and Deep Penetration:
High Drone Activity: Ukrainian forces have effectively used drones to target Russian tanks. The density of drones and their ability to penetrate deep into enemy territory make stationary tanks highly vulnerable.
Immediate Deployment: To mitigate the risk of tanks being targeted while stationary, Russian forces might deploy them immediately upon arrival. This tactic ensures the tanks are used in combat operations rather than becoming sitting targets.
Immediate Use and High Losses:
Operational Imperative: Given the high risk of drone strikes, newly arrived tanks are likely put to use immediately. This results in intense periods of tank engagement and subsequent high loss rates.
Combat Role Shifts: Tanks are also being modified and used in unconventional roles, such as heavily armored troop carriers, to enhance their survivability. However, this adaptation doesn't fully mitigate the threat, leading to fluctuating loss rates as these modifications are tested.
Additional Observations
Use of All Available Resources: There have been reports of wounded soldiers being sent directly back to the front lines, even with severe injuries like broken legs and arms. This shows that all available resources, whether personnel or material, are being used immediately. The same urgency applies to deploying newly arrived tanks and other equipment.
Supporting Observations
Satellite Imagery and Intelligence Reports:
Satellite imagery showing the movement of tanks by rail to the front lines can provide direct evidence of erratic arrival patterns. These movements often correspond with spikes in tank losses as reported by sources like the Oryx Blog.
Field Reports and Analyst Assessments:
Reports from military analysts and think tanks such as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) often provide insights into the broader logistical and strategic challenges faced by Russian forces. These reports can contextualize the erratic tank losses.
Conclusion
The combination of erratic tank arrivals due to shortages, the strategy of grouping shipments to include tanks, ammunition, and other vehicles to mitigate risk, and the high density of Ukrainian drones leading to immediate deployment of tanks is a plausible explanation for the observed fluctuation in Russian tank losses. This pattern highlights the ongoing logistical challenges and tactical adaptations in response to the evolving dynamics of the conflict. Additionally, the immediate use of all available resources, including injured soldiers, underscores the urgency driving these decisions.
Hope this helps clarify the situation!
Thanks for this matey - it's on the video right now live or something
Afternoon all, thanks JP.
Good morning JP. I had to decline my son's invitation to spend the fourth of July with him at his inlaws they are MAGA and I really don't know if I could stop myself from saying that I don't respect them. Cheers 🍻
Better that than grind your own teeth away!
We have to stop letting those creeps feel like their desire to end democracy is social acceptable, forgivable or a threat we can afford to dismiss.
Best to stay away from maga, especially on the 4th of July 🇺🇸 💪
No 👐
@ericmaclaurin8525 like JP says we need to fight for our democracies. I had one adult say to me , I am not going to vote. I said, people died for the right to... you got to.
Great reporting Jon, thanks!
It only says it destroyed 2 Sea Drones, didn't mean it was the only 2 drones in the area and would highly doubt it would be. If it was recon, then there were a good dozen or more not far away and probably around the corner a few miles ago.
I have no idea why I felt a sense of joy hearing you say Bastards!
Well there should be 160 Slingers turning up any minute
Apparently they are to be assembled in Ukraine but most of the parts come from the USA
Europe's response to Trump and threats to NATO should be: "Ok, we'll develop our own nuclear deterrence since we can't rely on you"
Desperation has no rules.
It's obvious that US is instabile...
Thank you Jonathan ❤Love to Team ATP ❤Love to Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤️ 🫂
Hi Nikki!☺
G'day Nikki and Mika.😊👍
@@grahambaker6664 Hi Graham.
Hi Nikki Graham Mika and Chris
Sending love ❤️over the oceans✨ 🌊
Part of the problem is that they can't always use the air defense if they are putting all their flyable planes in the air during an attack. Need to stop the uav before reaching the airbases.
Hi , the radar coverage in Ukraine at the airfields and other military targets I am assuming is as good as they can get it , let's not forget that the civilians are also demanding protection for the cities and their people . I am no expert but I guess some of the air cover that " should " be protecting those helicopters and planes have been used to protect Kiev and the other major cities , so that is the state of the air cover until more arrives.
Steve Daniels
great work
They are just being more overt with their escalation management.
They are basically saying to Russia "Look what happened in Kharkiv, every time you try to expand the front we will give Ukraine the means to seriously hurt you."
Infuriating that their focus is still escalation management, not giving Ukraine the means to win.
What would be useful to know but unlikely to find out is the amount of Russian artillery across the front. Russian artillery losses are high but against what backdrop, ie 56 artillery when Russia has 60 on the front would be massive however 56 out of 1000 would only be a spit in a bucket.
There has been a lot of Ukranian Radars taken out recently.
I know people are pretty angry about planes and choppers being taken out but maybe this is contributing.
And as for moving aircraft around and quick dispersal, that’s fine, but how can you do maintenance on the airframes and still have it ready to scramble at a moments notice.
Sure hardened shelters would be ideal, but there are a lot of things that “need” priority.
Hola Peeps!
Hola Mitch 🏜
Dell’s spreadsheets and graphics are an excellent resource.
the tank's irregularity sounds like train arrivals.
Thanks Jon.
🥇👏👏👏👏👍😊
♥Artillery systems can be repaired and seriously wounded soldiers can be sent back to the front (something like a Monty Python skit - the Black Knight). In these circumstances it is easy to overstate Russian losses.♥♥
With the fluctuating daily tank count, it could be that Ukrainians have enhanced their intelligence. With certain restrictions lifted, they can now target tanks as they approach the front lines, rather than waiting until the actual assaults as they did in the past.
Been trying to post something quite innocuous, but censored out by U-tube. This is ridiculous
Yes, that happens a lot. I re phrase a comment 3 to 4 times before my comment will stick, other times, no problem. I think it depends on reporting trolls.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Russian Arty and vehicle losses huge
Thanks always, Jonathan. Has anyone reported on the effect of war casualties on Russian demographics? Unreliable Russian stats list around 7,000,000 males 18-30. That estimate doesn't include the 1-2 million that left. Point: they have already lost 10% + breeding males: brightest have emigrated and best vets (of a poor lot) soldiers have been erased already.
It's ok, it is not like they already had a declining population, pre war.
I'm sure none of the returning veterans will end up with PTSD and or major substance abuse issues also taking them out of the breeding pool.
Oops, thanks for everything, good luck with the elections and слава Україні 🇺🇦🇺🇦💙💛
Thank you
16:00 -
I would expect a combined approach to Novorossyisk: sea & aerial drones plus missiles at the same time.
Hi team , Thank you Jonathan..
Nice comprehensive analysis. I look forward everyday to your reports, as we get little to none in the US. We get a lot about russia,mostly propaganda sadly
Great video thank you for the information provided by your good self keep smiling and be happy glory to Ukraine slava Ukraine pryvit
Hello JP and everyone 👋😊 🌻
Hi Smith ❤🌌 🦎 🤗 🌴 😘
Hello Smitty!
Hi smith, and Thanks Johnathan for your update…. 💙💛💙
@@smith...1 hi Smithy 🇦🇺🇺🇦
24:50 -
When it comes to strikes inside Russia, the US administration is still stubbornly playing at overall escalation management, publicly declaring a tit-for-tat strategy for allowing deeper strikes with provided Western weapons. It seems all of Ukraine's allies are taking directions from the US on this - at least Ukraine is taking their cues from them even as it concerns the use of other nation's weapons beyond the range allowed by the US.
They need 17 paitiots to guard Ukraine they have what 4-5 of course there are holes
Good evening JP👋🙂
Good evening team👋🙂
Vote Dalek!
Oh a great vote Dalek line: the doctor will not save you this time, the conservatives have gutted the NHS!
If you have not seen the political Dalek videos search “vote dalek”
Hi Matt and your beautiful family ❤
Good morning, Matt👋😊
@@surpriseitsus9622 good morning Lynn❤️🤗 how are you going?
@@stevea2909 good morning Steve👋🙂 hoe are you mate?
Get those patriots there so F16 can fly
Why do jets even need to be above ground? A runway can be hidden too.
Good morning Jonathan and ATP team from a Canadian who is having my first coffee.
Hello everyone☺👋👉👍👍👍👈
Hello 👋 Sheryl 🌷
Hi Sheryl!
@@whatnowstinky Hi Stinky!😄
Thank you so much
Hello 👋 JP and wonderful caring team Ukraine 🇺🇦 🤗
Hi Lynn 🤗💐
Hi Lynn and GTSY
Good morning, Lynn!😊👋
@@stevea2909Hi Steve 🤗
@@richardbennett8522Hi Richard 🤗
If Ukraine Just put up tents over their aircraft, the Russians would not know if aircraft where there or not, if the Ukrainians put up more tents than aircraft they have this would confuse the Russians even more. I appreciate this is not a very good idea but at least it is a cheap and quick start to defend aircraft, initially they do not have to even be camouflage nets. You have shown cadges built around Russian aircraft, at least that meanes Russia is winning in that area.
FLIR on drones. They would know.
Any update to the rumors of the s500 being hit in Crimea?
None seen yet.
"LOOK" ! at the numbers. "WOW"! "OUTSTANDING EFFORT"! "GO"! UKRAINE. 🇺🇦 👏👏👏👏👏 🇺🇦 🫡
👋
Iwas would go as far to say I am pissed with the Recon Drones! Cause there is absolutely no point in F-16s coming if they are just going to destroy them. And as far as I am concerned I don't understand why Jets or Helicopters are sitting around if they are not under Repair? If they are not under repair or upgrade they should always be in the sky doing something. Why is it I feel as though the entire Air Force needs some training or something. I don't understand, unless they have No Weapons for them. But I have not heard either way basically. I know we have stuff for the F-16s and some stuff for the Su Jets and Mig Jets, but I just don't know how much. But we have an issue here with Recon Drones. And I really do not understand why more is not being done to solve this problem. We have had this problem forever it feels like!!! I swear I say "eyes in the skies boys" more than I say anything else in one single 24 hour period. Whether working or not! I am a Drone crazyman! I freaking HATE Them. It was the Best and Worst thing Ukraine could've implicated in this war and every other war from here on out. I get it, we/they at the time needed them more than anything to stop Russia! But boy oh boy, nothing drives me more crazy. I swear I dream of Drones! I will never ever fly another one in my life! After I am done here!😇
🖕Putin!!! Come get some and stop sending your people baby lala! What a P.O.S. Excuse my language!
Thanks JP, Team!
Regarding the F-16 there's rumours that they will be stationed in nearby countries to protect them for possible strikes, need to keep an eye for further developments.
@@WorldCitizen0000 Yes there were but it is not going to happen. We can't, US won't allow it and Nato won't allow it. But they will operate in Nato Countries often and will go to Nato Countries for Repairs and Upgrades when need be. But we cannot station them in any Nato Countries at least. So really I don't see them going anywhere but here, and even if a non Nato nation offered to host them, we would have to get Permission from the US, Nato, and the Countries Providing them to Ukraine. In almost every scenario the US has to give Permission for them to go anywhere basically other than Ukraine. Cause they are the Manufacturers. Just like the countries providing them had to ask the US if they could provide their old F-16 they are replacing to Ukraine. So lots of Political B.S. in there. But I think that Nato will play a game of them routinely going to Nato Countries. And even in a Alert, if they can get off the ground before an incoming attack I think they will head toward Nato Nations for the rest of the Night at least. But if they go to Nato countries other than for that, I think it will be Repairs and upgrades, not even Maintenance will they go their for. Maybe once in a while if they are their for something already, but only for Maintenance No they won't. But there was talk of it, but as far as Nato and the US have said, it can't happen. But it will be here and there under the Radar as we would say in America. Russia's Satellite Systems suck if they work at all. So unless they are getting Chinese Sat. Intel, they really shouldn't know. But the reason is, Cause if Russia were to attack the Base they were at in a Nato Country, you have now Invoked Article 5 of the Nato Treaty and we will all be at war. Which shit I say let's just get the shit over with. Cause at this point I think it may end up, ending that way anyways!
Surely Ukraine has extra anti aircraft systems? Seriously?
The problem appears to be having anti-aircraft systems that can destroy Iskandar missiles. At the moment that means Patriot or Iris-T are needed. The recent attacks have all been Iskandar missiles which can be configured with either cluster or bunker busting unitary warheads. The airbases are not being attacked by drones and cruise missiles which may indicate that the available short and medium range air defence is sufficient for those threats.
Ammunition.
Nice work as always JP. Thank you for the update
Hello all good people! me announcing that I have discord now was a bit premature, for some reason I can't install it.
I had troubles with dis-cord too and never went back to find out why... Maybe I should ...
😄🤗🌊✨
@@smith...1 Hi Smithy! ☺
I can't seem to get discord, or get it to stay. I gave up, but you have more patience than I.
Happy Wednesday Mika ❤ good luck 🤞
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn, I have very little patience when it comes to pc and installing sh.t...
@@greenhighlander7 I get easily frustrated with technology. Hugs from the desert 🏜
Can you do a spot on Ukrainian losses, military and civilian to date, it’s important the pro- Ukrainian community gets the truth from all angles, to see their sacrifices, Western media sources vary wildly, no doubt you know from your contacts.
From the American Colonies to the British Empire ---- Thanks for the Day OFF tomorrow!
Serious note
Wondering if Ukraine's increase of attacks on trucks and fuel trucks are effecting tank movement. no fuel no movement
using golf carts and motorcycles doesn't move enough fuel so it takes 3 days to get enough supply to launch an attack
Just heard on Rick the Ukrainian that Apparently top general moved Ukraine troops from defending airfields to infantry positions-
You would think they would use jammers around airports. I would keep them in hot air balloons around the airport.
Would love to know how many artillery systems can be built by Rus and if/when NK will become their shells and system supplier.
Hiya JP. am tempted to make a Face joke, but that guy from the original A-team was an okay character... ;-)
They should show the destroyed or the graph on how many destroyed on if it's going up or down
You sure that word wasn't libertarian? I know they're big fans of voting for politicians who don't believe in individual rights and, obviously, education.
All talk about war. No one talk about Peace 😢😢😢
The tanks situation up and down is the same way for Russia as now as what their missiles are as soon as they come out of the back
rounds going in all directions, good chance they hit there own town ect
June has been catastrophic in terms of the artillery systems Mordor has lost.
Mordor is short of about 4.5 million workers which is affecting productivity, factories are struggling and this will probably include drone factories.
💙💛
On the bright side for Muscovites, unemployment is dropping below 3%.
I under stand that Russia are using immobile tanks as fixed artillery. Are they a significant factor. How are kills counted.
They allow more shells to hit. They are even less accurate then the D30 and D20 howitzers they are supplementing.
why the hell have a helicopter on a airport it takes off vertical so dont need the airport just like the jump jets that our navy has
I can think of a couple:
1. It is a decoy and deliberately placed to test RU capabilities
2. It makes resupplying and repairing it easier if not got off road fuel trucks available
I think the variable tank losses are indicative that tanks are withdrawn from lower significance engagement. This means that they are either running low on tanks or that they are trying to gather a mass force. Given the depth of Russian stockpiles I think they have withdrawn tanks to train crews and have proficient crews ready to counter Ukrainian assaults later.
So far the Russian military hasn't shown that level of forward thinking. It certainly appears that there is significant pressure from above for immediate results that precludes significant training and logistical planning.
😢
2% x by 50 usa states = a lot more
Hey Jonathan, just wondering if you heard anything about whether or not Ukraine has used Storm Shadow & SCALP missiles to hit targets 100 kilometers or deeper inside Russia? Have they been used at all in Belgorod oblast? If not, why not? (only if you know of course)
They don't appear allowed to. I think the US dictates this
watch INFINITY 1hour 14 minutes of vehicles being blown up, no censorship there
All the Russian strikes in your Canal are reported for "WarVehicleTracker", whit a Poland flag. Seems this person only report Russian strikes. Suspicious!!!
I picked up that 9 planes were destroyed in two day attacks on planes.Any truth to that. ?
Best reporting is 2 or one. Suchomimus or Torsten H.
@@sherrysnyder4195
Aliens from Titan
Hi JP,
I am again not convinced by the video of the Helicopter and 4 support vehicles getting destroyed. Once again there is really dodgy editing and there is no clear evidence that there was significant damage - no vehicles are really visible when the missle explodes 19:29, other than possibly the Mi-24 but that could equally be smoke, and the footage of the vehicles after the explosion appears to show everything in tact. That is not to say it is not the case they were hit, but if so why not show their destruction. There is also a possiblity that the Mi-24 was a decoy as does not appear to be refueled or rearmed as no fire / explosion shown and no visible damage on the final pass.
Either way the video has achieved its aim of pissing people off and painting a picture that Ukr is not able to look after its value air assets so sowing the seeds of doubt as to whether Ukr is ready for the F16s.
So either they lost a Mi-24 or it is great Psyops by the Ru - neither is good for Ukr
Sup bois
The drones are so small and made from non ferrous materials making them incredibly difficult to spot and bring down. Tge Slinger system is designed specifically to deal with this issue. Yesterday's losses were both inoperable SU27s the rest took off and are safe. Again, the drone was tiny and almost impossible to knock out or even originally, detect its presence.
looking forward to the livestream,I personally think there will be a lot of tactical voting.
SLAVA UKRAINE
In the summary table, you missed what I think of as one of the better stats. That is the 30 day rolling average. It gives an idea of current average losses.
93 GRADs canibalized means that rus was able to build at least that many of the new GRAD. Maybe more if they are able to build some tubes. But, you'd think the tube is relatively simple. Maybe there is some electronics in the launch mechanism they can't recreate?
They need slower flying aircraft to deal with high flying drones, like the YAK-52 or the AT-802U:
air at802u 2023 08 04 -Meet America’s New Attack Aircraft; The Sky Warden
www.youtube. com/watch?v=OloKDSNe10U
4000 lbs payload -17 hard points -8hr loiter
Is a prop crop sprayer that was adapted for fire fighting, then for military
Tit for Tat. Rus already has problems with wheat fires, Ukr should use long range drones to encourage that problem!
You can't outline t-Rumps policies about Ukraine war because he has NONE. Just more incoherent babble. His aids may have something they can spoon feed him.