Nuclear Winter | Retro Report | The New York Times
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 เม.ย. 2016
- Carl Sagan and other Cold War scientists once feared that a nuclear war could plunge the world into a deadly ice age. Three decades later, does this theory still resonate?
Produced by: RETRO REPORT
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Nuclear Winter | Retro Report | The New York Times
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Retro Report is gold, they really deserve an award of some sort.
no. it's not
just shut up
They should put this on PBS.
Fun fact the executive producer Kyra Darton is married to David Grann who wrote the book that became the movie lost city of Z.
More recently he wrote an incredible book called killers of the flower moon about the Osage Indian oil fortune, the conspiracy to murder full blooded Osages who inherited this huge fortune and the birth of the fbi. Incredible journalist.
Get a subscription! It's not that expensive and helps not only the NYT but all newspapers to keep working and to reduce their financial dependency on advertisers.
Back when government officials actually trusted scientists
Its old government that the newer government doesn't trust. The scientists were mainly extorted.
half of science believes that climate change is NOT made by humans. The other half believe that it WAS caused by humans. Nobody is saying climate change ISN'T happening. there is only a debate as to WHY it IS happening. There is SCIENTIFIC evidence and SCIENTIFIC PROOF for both sides.
Jakub Libera no half of scientists don’t believe that it was not caused by humans. 97% of scientists on a poll of over 10,000 scientists internationally agreed that humans had a negative impact on climate change. No debate on if the climate is changing and why. There is only a debate on the extent of the affects of said climate change and how soon the earth could potentially be uninhabitable and to what degree
Shampoo Doesnt taste as good as it smells ...i mean Trump just doesn’t believe climate change is real
I saw a dude on the JoeRoganShow talking about this (somewhere in the 900's). Part of the problem is that "expert opinion" can be bought (look at the tobacco and oil industry) that can prove any side of the argument you want. This also prevails a lot in legal cases where expert witnesses will argue any side of a case for money. As such the guest on the show said that there is this notion, that exists amongst the elite of the USA, that scientific opinion is simply a tool to be bought to further your own cause.
The thing is Nobody wins everyone loses.
Nonsense. The rich win, the poor lose, just like normal. You should see their nuclear bunkers. You'd pay to spend a few years pampered like never before while watching those above ground suffer on television.
Did everyone lose ww2?
You think,?
@@chesterfinecat7588 eventually the rich would die also
@@chesterfinecat7588 Spending a decade or so in a bunker isn't as nice as it seems, the rich areant rich when they leave the bunker. They dont win, they become equal.
Patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for nuclear winter
Stationary Particles A true imbecile you are.
Patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for nuclear winter
I was hoping for this comment.
Luis Cortez Patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter
This is exactly why I came here!
On the plus side, you know silver lining on every cloud, nuclear winter would fix our global warming problem real quick. It's like using a bazooka to kill a mosquito.
Out of the frying pan into the icebox? LOL
William Brown and the overpopulation problem, too! (at least the humans...)
It would also destroy the ozone layer and when the nuclear winter we would be exposed to the suns rays which can cause blindness, cancer, and sunburn
Madaline Maki
You must be fun at party’s
Except the cloud will have a plutonium lining instead
If I had a list of ten people to bring back from the dead, Sagan would be on it.
+R3G3N3S1S YOU JUST BROKE THE INTERNET. YOU WIN.
Einstein, Newton, Galileo, and Marie Curie, and Sagan are my top 5.
My list would have Heath Ledger
Shobha Roy Out of all the important people in the world that have died you chose a junkie actor.
R3G3N3S1S reagan
The world desperately needs Carl Sagan right now. Gone too soon.
Absolutely. They needs truth-tellers in general. It's a pity so many vested interests are committed to silencing and intimidating them.
idk about that because Carl Sagan was wrong about this
@@cowfat8547 he wasn't, he was trying to affect change
@@851995STARGATE He was trying to cause change but, his "findings" in his research study were for the most part wrong and widely discredited. They did the job of trying to scare off a nuclear war but it did so by telling falsities.
Carl Sagan was wrong and could be a narcissistic bum.
I hope the first one lands right on my head so I can miss the whole thing
lol, I was just thinking that
It wouldn't land
It'd vaporize you
+Dylan Mop vape nation
My dad told me he'd set out a lawn chair and watch the explosion. LMAO.
@@ChakkyCharizard I don't count on my luck to know it in advance. But I'd do something similar. :D
I remember growing up during this.
The air raid sirens terrified me every time they went off. And being in Alaska at the time, it seemed we were stuck in the middle between the Soviet union and the United States if they wanted to lob bombs we were ready. It seems crazy looking back at that time through the eyes of a 9 yr old. Nobody wants a "Nuclear Winter."
sure
I miss Carl...
God rest his bones.
I don’t!
@@henryc1000 why not? Genuinely curious, since in my opinion the man was a thoughtful person and extremely good at translating Science into normal English.
"Here's my strategy on the Cold War: we win, they lose."
- Ronald Reagan
"Don't think your movie didn't have anything to do with this...because it did."
- Ronald Reagan in a letter to "The Day After" director Nicholas Meyer reagrding the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
Noboby win Cold War
@@alguemai6636 Who was the Cold War between?
th-cam.com/video/dGFkw0hzW1c/w-d-xo.html
carl sagan is my hero
Carl Sagan was an idiot. The TTAPS nuclear winter model was completely discredited by the 1991 Gulf War.
+Michael Hanson carl Sagan is no idiot
It was proven true again in the last decade, they held a study of a fictional nuclear war between Pakistan and India where only 14 nukes dropped would still create a nuclear winter.
carl sagan is a fraud
@@hzingano
Religious freak?
Carl Sagan > Nuclear winter is catastrophic.
Vladimir Putin > Wanna bet?
Vladimir Putin > Yes.
Here we go again. Time to shake the dust off of this video and wake up the world once again. God help us all.
Carl Segan like many scientists (who exaggerate their findings today) I believe knew that the concerns were exaggerated. But it was done on purpose for the benefit of humanity, as stated in the last clip we would not want to beat our lives on whether or not nuclear winter is a stark possibility. Sometimes you have to exaggerate and hide the truth for the purpose of preserving humanity, and what is good. That model scared the heck out of the Regan administration and the Soviets. Which is why they ended up signing the agreement.
We need someone like Carl Sagan nowadays to make everyone scared of global warming.
People tend not to care about slow-acting disasters. The effect of nuclear winter would pass across generations, instead of happening overnight. It would still be devastating over time and difficult to fix after it happens, if a solution ever presented itself at all. It's the same deal with climate change - slow acting devastation, but in need of immediate action before things tip over. Unfortunately, humans typically think within the scope of the next five to ten years and don't consider an investment going over the next several decades.
@@AlaskaRS nuclear winter would not be slow acting. Half the globe dead within 10 months
My only concern is that this leads to an horrific and unjustified mistrust in experts, as we have seen with Covid and anti-vaxxer, anti-masker, miracle cure, conspiracy theorist misinformation. In my opinion, Nuclear War and fallout with thermonuclear exchanges were horrific enough without any exaggeration. Read "Hiroshima" by John Hersey.
I don't think he was exaggerating...if every volcano erupted at the same time we'd be in big trouble...if a nuclear bomb was strategically placed in a volcano think about the consequences
Carl Sagan.. an awesome personality and a great scientist
who was wrong about this
@@cowfat8547 what!!
@@prithviraj4203 his model used to determine the effects of a nuclear winter in this study are widely regarded by most scientists as incorrect
@@cowfat8547 That is your opinion. If 1% of the nuclear weapons now ready for war were detonated in large cities, they would utterly devastate the environment, climate, ecosystems and inhabitants of Earth. A war fought with thousands of strategic nuclear weapons would leave the Earth uninhabitable.
Fast forward to february 2022 - here we are again! 😬
Nuclear war 2023 or 2022: NATO vs Russia, China vs USA, India vs Pakistan
Partial verification of nuclear winter is possible by looking at the effects of major volcanic eruptions like Toba, Tambora, Krakatoa, and Pinatubo, at least in terms of what happens if you kick up a whole lot of particulate matter into the atmosphere.
Your right about that. The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4-0.7 °C. Due to Mount Tambora explosion.
Ahh only nuclear autumn and the human race itself won't get totally extinct?
Well then let's keep going
human race must be continue ,do not destroy it , because american scientist think human is like a dinasour mind or other animal mind , thats think how human is more power than other mammals .
+JOHN ERNEST LEE nice english grammar
JOHN ERNEST LEE
Your extra chromosome is showing.
I know, scum politicans we should have them killed first in the event of war, that would be much faster and effective than killing us by the millions.
We need a Carl Sagan for global warming.
Why? He was wrong on nuclear winter, why should I or anyone believe him now?
In college I wrote a paper on "aplastic anemia" which is a rare disease in which the bone marrow and the hematopoietic stem cells that reside there are damaged. Irradiation of a person’s bone marrow was at the top of the list along with certain chemical agents such as colchicine overdose. It was well received. This effect is ignored in this documentary.
This particular piece seems to only focus on the weather aspect on nuclear weapons rather than the effects on the body
We need another Sagan, now more than ever.
There is also a BBC documentary about this.
Scientist: "I dont think that the extinction of humanity is a possibility", CoronaVirus: "hold my bacteria"
@@anizetsu7326 chillax man its a meme not factual information get over yourself 🤣
virus =/= bacteria
@@davo4074 tf did he said?
There will be news like this really soon...
I am starting to think that we really don't know anything for sure. We love to hear ourselves talk, but we really don't have much to say.
no we have alot to say, just what we say isnt very true and in this day no one listens.. everyone just cares about what they think
War never changes
I get the reference.
Fallout 4 boyyyyq
this is such a useful resource to learn about recent history, feel like I should know about all these stories to be a good citizen lmao and since I’m 17 it’s not in textbooks yet but I wasn’t about when it was happening either
thank you Carl.
Hell yea! Can't wait.
One major volcanic erupton can lower the earths tempeture . Now lets imagine a limited nuclear exchange. Regardless if you call it Nuclear winter or fall or whatever it will still have a major impact on human life. The loss of power from the EMP effects would kill millions just from the lack of electricity.
not only are there volcanic winters, or nuclear winters, but also impact winters from asteroids or meteorites or comets
I remember growing up in this with the nuclear fallout drills
esse é o melhor jornal do mundo !! congratulations !
Robert McNamara nailed it. MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. And I always believed that was what saved all of us. So far. One launch would ensure the end of it all.
How are you nowadays?
power does what it wants regardless of human nature
bull
Clever boy. Well done. Here is your reward for such a very clever youtube comment. Just lovely and so so clever.
Even the alternative scenario is fantastically disastrous.
I can not wait for this any longer I want it now!!
You don't want to live after nuclear war.
@@abdiazizmohamed4135 yes we do after patrolling the mojave
*war never changes.*
2018,2019 we had the warmest winters in New York
I was like what’s happening here...it’s scary
Someone plz build a snowpiercer train.
Well, there are snowploughs. Plus, there are special snow blowing equipment made for railroads.
They also made a movie called "the day after" dedicated to the situation in 1983
Carl Sagan is lucky. He's already dead so he avoided a nuclear war. I hope I can do it too.
What is Sagan has to do with this? It was soviet scientist who first came up with the idea of nuclear winter not Sagan.
Yeah Danny Elfman even wrote a song about nuclear winter the year before Carl Sagan talked about it.
“Patrolling the Mojave Almost Makes You Wish For a Nuclear Winter”
NCR PROUD FTW
Finally, I was looking for this comment👌🏼
Out of curiosity, why is there no mention of the nuclear weapon testing conducted until the 1980s throughout the world? This should be hugely involved in the modeling since actual tests were conducted in many different executions. By estimates it is predicted 100s of megatons of nuclear weapons were tested. That information has to be useful in some manner in predicting this, or even understanding current situations. This just seems like a big part of the study for me...
th-cam.com/video/dGFkw0hzW1c/w-d-xo.html
You, my friend, are SPOT ON!
The nuclear weapon testing conducted until the 1980s throughout the world were never done over our world's all largest towns and not in a massive scale.
What will happen today if the the sky is blackening with ash from a nuclear war: th-cam.com/video/WCTKcd2Ko98/w-d-xo.html
They were all underground nukes. Above-ground nukes were banned in the 60s.
And now? Look where we are, good job America.
Madeline Myers هاي مرحبااريدان اتعرف عليكي
Madeline Myers هاذرقم هاتفي 07739111805
IF saying "we are all gonna die!" stops nuclear weapons then I'm all for over exaggeration.
Exactly. Why would you say 'well that's not necessarily true". And then go on to research how we can survive, thus giving the idea to some nutcase dictator that it's ok if they try it to see. Just saying.
If you lie about truth as a scientist, then you've committed a sin, because now one one trusts you. A good indication that you're extreme, is when you're lying for some greater good.
I cried since of the thought
Seems like a lot of older politicians who remember the controversy around Nuclear Winter, and the subsequent moderation of the findings remember it as "Eco nuts got worried about it because of trumped up science, but then it was disproven." It seems like this has inspired a kind of smug denialism about the threat from global warming.
If the world cooled by an average of 8-10 degrees, the more moderate estimates, it would still irreparably harm the biosphere, and would cause the extinction of many plants and animals which are closely adapted to their ecological niches. The knock on effects would be felt by everyone, as food supplies dwindled, and the whole world suddenly attempted to adapt to the changed environment, leading to large population displacements, and further conflict.
Global Warming has been researched for longer than the initial nuclear winter scare (first understandings were in the 1800's, well developed by the 1980's), and threatens the same kinds of unknowably large knock on effects.
The big difference is that Nuclear Winter required a nuclear war to break out, Global Climate Change is now the default.
"...and in 2 hours the world was engulfed in the fires of its own creation..."
"Winter is coming." 7:40
My God I was 17 in 1983.
-Cliff
Battleship Marine!
Fairhope, Alabama
Perhaps you heard the song Oingo Boingo wrote about it the year before in 1982.
That's when the dark sorcerers came up with the concept of Global Warming for Sagan to shut up about the Nuclear Winter
almost 2020, and somehow we are still here.
a nuclear fall could precipitate other issue besides mild famine. economic collapse, large swathes of inhabitable land, pollution that is extremely dangerous and virtually permanent, etc.
th-cam.com/video/dGFkw0hzW1c/w-d-xo.html
The irony of watching this in 2022 after Russia just held a nuclear simulation exercise in Kaliningrad...
Keep doing your part to bring it to reality!
Ltcomment 4:40 map , Alan Robock model 10:28
9:00 hey I’ve seen this one! Snowpiercer lmao
And the ignorance of the American public continues ...
Steven Nodlehs What country does not have ignorant people in it? Don't call American ignorant when they have created some of the best technologies.
The American government has nothing to do with the American public.
thank goodness it was Reagan and not Bush because i don't think i could stand hearing nuclear pronounced "NEWK-kyu-lar" this many times.
I hope on the last days we as the people if this world will make a Farm Equipments and Machine instead a destructive weapons someday
We could hear leaves rustling in trees
Possums an Squirrels shelter in place
Birds sing a storm on heels of breeze
Storm came on strong winds the case
As we face radiation extinction disease
The end is near
“We can’t try to understand the New York Times’ affect on man.”
Great video on Vice that interviews soldiers who witnessed nuclear experiments. They talk about looking at their fellow soldiers and seeing through to their bones because of all the X-ray radiation.
I saw that. I remember one of them saying some of the soldiers were so terrified they were actually crying for their mothers. It was chilling. God Bless those men.
that couldn't have been the X-rays since we simply can't perceive those.
Ever held your thumb over a light and seen the outline of your bone? I think that is what happened there but on a much brighter scale.
@@piccolo917 This is correct. It's a surprisingly common myth among veterans. They were simply seeing their hands back-lit.
Damm, at least you can snowboard on every corner of the world
And, now Russia is on a nuclear high alert!
There is a history teacher at my school named Karl Sagan. You can guess whom he was named after.
The New York Times, I would like to send subtitle in Portugese (Brazil) to this video, could you, kindly, allow me to do that? This option is not avaiable (sending subtitles). Thanks.
This was on an episode of Futurama lol
da hora !
7:49 I'm so glad that this guy knows how to pronounce "paranhas" properly! It's "pah-rah-nyah"!
The economic cost of "geo-engineering" the climate would dwarf the cost of simply going solar. Living proof that the fossil furl industry will go to any cost to protect its interests. And the rest of us would be insane to let it happen.
im here, i hope its not going to happen..
2:39 I never knew Frank was an anchorman. I always thought he had his own business either trying to off himself, become crab people, or asking everyone if they banged his hoor wife 😂
Investing in the Snowpiercer train now
Soviet millitary build up must not be ignored
but usa millitary build up must be improved
True, the USSR is the second most powerful in the world in military terms, in addition to having several satellite states in Eastern Europe that are de jure independent countries.
Patrolling the mojave doesnt make me wish for a nuclear winter after watching this
Top 10 Greatest Anime Plot-Twists
*seemed like a distant memory :/
Even if the effects were moderate - its not a road i wanna go on. Cheers to Sagan cuz I wouldnt want to live a "moderate" nuclear winter
bone chilling
So after the Ice Age, do the sky people come down and wage war against the grounders and the mountain men ?
I think no one here will get this reference.
No subtitles?
Why does it say Retro Report? So, it happened?
Update security hurdles, control inventories, and increase surveillance on all power plants before it's too late. Terrorist access to nuclear weapons is no joke...
Thank you TH-cam algorithm. It seems that now we are getting closer to this danger ^^ peace for all ✌
Would it be worse than the last ice age?
We were more afraid in the fifties than the eighties. Back then we had nuclear drills in schools. We were miterally proaring for nuclear war. Then we ralused it was unwinable and accepted fate.
What I don't get is there were thousands of nuclear weapons tests between 1950 and 1980 but we weren't subjected to a nuclear winter. The US alone conducted over 1,000 tests. I'd be interested in seeing some facts and figures about how many detonations of a given output over a given period of time would cause what kind of a shift in global temperatures. You know, some sort of a model which would clear up this confusion.
The nuclear tests occurred weeks and months apart from one another and were one off explosions. A full scale nuclear war would result in thousands of megaton nuclear weapons detonating simultaneously over a few days. If you start a small fire in your house you can still breathe, you set an entire room on fire and it's a different story.
The models also assume soot from cities and forests on fire would be propelled into the stratosphere. All of the nuclear tests we have done have been in deserts, small islands, the ocean or underground.
It's that they were all set off at once.
If nuclear war was fought say 5 missiles at a times, weeks apart between volleys, yeah the problem would be negligible.
While some of those detonations occurred on the surface many more where underground and underwater. Most likely enough material wasn't ejected into the upper atmosphere to be able to have the data to make models. Volcanic eruptions during that time period may have put more material, than nuclear detonations.
There were exactly 2059 know nuclear explosions on the history of earth. 1528 of those were underground or underwater and thus did not affect the atmosphere in any noticeable way. Only 531 explosions happened on the surface and these were "sparsely" distributed throughout 75 years, all on places where the amount of particles throw into the atmosphere would be minimal, like open deserts, ocean atolls or in very high altitudes (with exception of two, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki).
Nuclear winter involves at least hundreds of nukes detonating on the surface on short periods of time and setting cities, forests, farmland and industrial infraestructure (like oil fields, thermoeletric powerplants or industrial chemical reservoirs) on fire.
I like Marvin Kalb
I put the news on these days and everything seems so complicated, I prefer the good ole days back when the extinction of mankind seemed so imminent
PUTIN MADE ME SEARCH FOR THIS !!!
Does it hurt when you get vaporized from a nuclear bomb?
No you would be gone instantly you probably wouldn't even know what happened
Michael Choe Japanese citizens who were near the impact point of the a-bomb were vaporized instantly. The nuclear bombs that countries boast today are thousands of times stronger than the bomb dropped in WW2. So you can only imagine the kind of destruction that would be done.
Well at Ground Zero of Hiroshima, equations for the effects of nuclear weapons show that the thermal pulse only delivered 150 cal/cm, not enough to vaporise a person. There were probably no bodies at ground zero because the shockwave would have ripped apart their bodies and pulled them halfway up the stem of the mushroom cloud. You would probably have to be inside the fireball to be vaporised properly, and even then it might not be instant.
So I’m gonna say it’s painful, unless you’re well inside the fireball
Thats why you dont use the pepper spray in the car
So that's why they called it the "Cold War"...
BIN coming for years is what it is later.
Oh my jeez, you guys. Are we still talking about nuclear war? I thought I told y'all to go up into space
Love is war...
@10:44 "the world would have much less food" um, sure but we'd also have much less population, and it would cancel the temperature rise caused by man-made global warming...
Wait...am I advocating nuclear war? I think this video has changed my mind on nukes guys....
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