What If America Was FULLY Neutral During WW1?
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Despite only getting involved in the war in 1917, the United States was one of the most influential nations during the first world war thanks to their sheer economic weight. Who American supported, traded with, loaned money to and generally supported had the massive advantage of the strongest world economy on their side. In our timeline, this side was the Entente, who even before 1917 enjoyed massive trade relations with the US keeping the economies afloat, and American loans keeping their budgets tight. What if this was different though. What if, in an alternate scenario, the United States managed to enforce freedom of shipping during the first world war, and Germany had the luxury of equal trading relations with the Americans.
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What if the Russian empire survived to this day.
What if Japan took over China in 1940????
What happens to the Dervish? Are they ceded Somalia?
What if the USA and Japan became Georgist after World War Two?
What if Australia became Georgist in the Great Depression? in this scenario, Australia implements a Georgist land value tax to help deal with the effects of the great depression.
Alternative history is actually an important part of history because it tells us a lot about WHY things happened the way they did.
@andrew slater yes
Better than the average public school, lmao
As long as is it done with research and critical thinking. Some of these channels just spout what they *want* to have happened instead of what realistically *could* have happened
exactly. all historical discussion is actually about this.
@@wildfire9280 Better than school in general, I didn't even know Ancient Egypt and Rome was a thing for years because the only "historical events" I learned in school were the World Wars and the Cold War (with the dictators that goes with them).
The schools where I live sucks *.
What if Serbia was fully neutral during WW1 lol
Imagine the Serbian government just… throws the black hand under the bus and tries to stay away from them
@@Alex-yy5wo "we're friends, right?"
"......"
"right....?"
"AY AUSTRIA THIS GUY RIGHT HERE"
"SHI-"
@@BagofBeans1 "Yooo Austria don't do anything you're gonna be sorry for, here. That guy is hanged in public, friends?"
*Roll Credits*
Lmao
The root cause of Germany's unrestricted submarine warfare was to counter the British blockade of Germany. Also, it was an answer to the way that British merchant ships were armed and began attacked German submarines when the submarines approaches British merchant ships. Originally, German uboots would approach a British merchant ship, surface, and announce that it has been captured, and have the sailors evacuate the ship, then it would be sunk with torpedos. Later the British start to arm the merchant ships and also have destroyers disguised as merchant ships, so they can fire upon the subs when they surface. So Germany uboots started to have unannounced attacked on civilian ships, that was the origin of the unrestricted submarine warfare.
The key question is if the US stays absolutely neutral, then the US should be objecting to the blockade of Germany. If not, then how would US trade with Germany? So if US insist on trading with Germany, then the UK would stop US shipping like it did in real life. And that would eventually become a causus belli like in 1812. So US cannot stay absolutely neutral without eventually having to cave either to the UK or till over against the UK.
US could continue to trade with UK and Germany at the same and insist that both UK and Germany would not attack its shipping wherever they are headed, but that is not very likely.
It was the dumbest thing Germany ever did. If they had any tact. They would have traded with the US to.
If the US was truly Neutral, well German Money is good to.
although im not sure about the uk's desire to trade with germany's trading partner, im glad you brought up the origin of unrestricted submarine warfare.
While US intervention may not have been a deciding factor in Germany's defeat in WW1, I seriously doubt that Germany would unconditionally surrender to the Entene like they did IRL. Actually a lighter peace deal like this could make for an interesting alternate history scenario to explore.
No, if Germany surrendered without Europe, they would barely exist, the US is the only nation that was against "Imperialism - So Say", the Allies wanted to annex chunks of land, without care of the population their . .
America was like since I helped you, I will break down Germany but not "annex" their entire country (looking at Britain and France, + Italy). . . .
USA only liberated in so say . . .
@@bobbyuuu1238 yeah but they wouldn't ever unconditionally surrender if America doesn't join. They would be winning militarily
@@bobbyuuu1238 which Germany wouldn’t accept a peace deal like that
There was no unconditional *surrender* in WWI, that was WWII having learnt the lesson of WWI. The Germans in 1945 where surprised that unconditional surrender was their only option.
@@jonathanbuzzard1376 Unconditional, less conditional; the same point still stands. They couldn't take as much from Germany or impose as many terms like total demilitarization like they could IRL.
America just can't stop winning, even when we don't fight.
Your map at the end of the video looks a bit like the one from Hoi4 Kaiserreich
One thing I dont understand, why do US citizens matter if the USA goes to war or not? It's a warzone, it's contested waters, if some US citizens go to Ukraine and get killed in the cross fire then that would not impact the USA to go to war, yes, yes, nukes, modern warfare, different times I know.
But its just so bizar how the USA was supplying the British and even using civilian ships to bring in weapons and then act surprised and outraged that Germany would sink those ships.
Like what's going on here? Did they have a propaganda media or something working for the government or the British?
Because the US was much closer to the UK and France and had almost no relationship at all with Germany. The Entene better represented American values like Democracy and Britain was obviously more culturally similar to the US.
The Americans, including the government, didn't know the Lusitania was a active participant in the war. The British made it look like the Germans attacked a uninvolved passenger ship.
@@rafaelrijo8175 hahaha, not they knew, this is what we call ''propaganda'' it's where you ignore facts and often make up your own to fit your narrative to reach a specific goal.
like how the USA and the British used the Zimmerman telegram as propaganda and a means to justify getting to ww1 which they were already funding, supplying and wanted to join (their elites in charge) since pretty much day 1.
Great video
Can we please revisit and continue this scenario?
Usa would probably use the netherlands as a neutral port to trade with germany
That would probably mean that the Netherlands would have a massive economic boom during the war instead of suffering despite being neutral.
That is how germany traded in rl but brits got to that quiet quickly so every ship going to neutral countries trough naval blockade was checked by tonnage so they compared imports of those countries before the war and then allowing only enough of tonnage to pass trough blockade so they can survive
As an American I wish this is what happened. No American deaths and great wealth from war profiteering.
Blame Wilson
I love your channel. No moronic predictions, no outlandish claims. Subbed.
Fellow Georgian B)
Fellow Enclave B)
nah
wait I've seen u before did u comment on ballin country version
Most underrated History Channel. I love how your analyses are always realistic and based in fact, rather than what we WANt to happen
eh. If you think about it a second time you can almost always find a major flaw or two in each vid.
here for example he ends the vid with saying france will pay back its loan about 20 seconds after claiming that germany will punish them so hard that they basically become economically dependant.
He also ignores the fact that GB may suffer from colonies probably wanting independence waaaay earlier due to the state of the world.
I feel like he is mostly an allied biased Alt history channel with little regard for the bigger picture. Better than most...but biased stays biased
@@andrefasching1332because the allies are the only faction with realistic win chances also he said that they will start to not pay in the entirety germany got economically destroyed yet they still paid their debt
@@andrefasching1332but i do agree about the colonies as they would definitely want to be more independent and the empire would overall be weaker but not too weak
You've missed one key point - the Allies may win on others fronts. For example, they could defeat the Ottomans and the Bulgarians like in our own timeline (these nation wouldn't become much stronger because of the US neutrality). And Austro-Hungary could be carved by its nationality because of the war exhaustion. In this case (quite similar with our timeline) Germany will left alone against the Allies with only inefficient Eastern puppets (that gived nothing but required a huge amount of resources).
Great video as always Mr.Potential! I have seen that you're channel has grown quite quickly recently and that now you also have a sponsor which means that within a year you would have tens of thousands of subscribers.I hope you can become a large youtuber and make a living out of youtube very soon
*your
@@sharkronical can you cope harder
So just kaiserreich but less weird
Plz make a part 2, This was so interesting
I love your presentation of history and your narrative skills.
The Entente surrendering while they are still militarily capable is very realistic, Germany tried to do the same but too late
What? The entente wouldn’t have surrendered here, they knew how shit germanys position was.
Nice video
I really enjoyed the video!
1) even if Britain keeps the North Sea blockade, the US can still export to Central Power ports such as Trieste & Fiume, which would also alleviate the situation in AH.
2) as Germany can o longer depend on submarines, they might be pushed to use the Kiel navy, which was oretty much unused in WW1.
3) by making Germany dependent on the US, Washington can dictate who can get which Caribbean colony.
Nice to see that quality content is being rewarded in the form of a sponsorship.
So glad I subbed underrated channel
So basically
Ww1 with no American involvement = USA profit
My alt take:
1914, war starts, US retains neutrality and ships cargo to all nations. As hostilities escalate it slowly starts to prefer allies but not by much, it also focuses on agricultural and similar trade while trying to not ship weapons or outright military goods. Starts a strong buildup.
1917, Germany is much stronger and Russia collapses as standard, but, Turkey is essentially facing the UK alone, Austria Hungary is facing the Italians and Balkans alone, and Germany is facing France, having to maintain its territories in the east, and trying to help its allies if it can, while all the Entente countries support France as a primary while focusing to at least gain more than they lose in their territory.
1918, Germany starts to slowly push into France while Turkey starts to crumble in the face of the UK and her allies, Italy starts to feel the full might of Austria-Hungary thats easy for Germany to support and has a large territorial expansion in the east. For a while A-H dominates in the field but eventually Italy digs into good defensive ground.
1919. France is facing collapse. Ottoman Empire collapses and UK is now able to strongly reinforce the BEF, preventing outright French Collapse. A-H now has to try to pacify its territory in the east, which is getting harder, defend in the Balkans against the UK and Balkan Minors that are now land connected to the Entente, and Italy is at the very least, holding firm. UK starts to do more and more disadvantagous loans and sales of territory for cash but is in no way facing economic collapse. Germany still receives trade from the US and Neutral occasionally fly US flag to trade with Germany, but its not much trade, UK randomly inspects ships and its almost entirely made of domestic and commercial goods and not military stuff.
1920. Everyone is exhausted, Germany continues to slowly advance in France but hasnt taken Paris, there has been at least one major German push towards it that got within 1914ish distance but didn't take the city. Germany is doing economically far worse and has to quell what amounts to civil wars in most of the E-European countries like the Finnish Civil war. While its slowly getting better the population are reacting more than violently to plans like "put a German/Prussian prince as Monarch and rule as Kingdom". Italy's unified population against A-H's many divergent rebelious voices is starting to tell and Italian and Balkan fronts are pushing into A-H, Germany is having to divide between trying to knock out France and supporting its Southren Front. The east is slowly turning from a resource drain to a resource surplus but barely. American sentiment is turning against the war in general which is increasingly viewed as a German War. Populations revolt against war and peace negotiations start. Final peace is essentially allowing competition in the balkans and e-europe for economic rights as well as some african and pacific island colonies for germany as well as no war reparations and nominal blame escalation alliances in general that lead to a small regional war turning into 5 years of planet wide carnage. No country is signalled out but network of interlocking hostile alliances is seen as cause. Germany revolts against militaristic style of expansion and confrontation of the 1910's and returns to methods of 1880's or so in terms of maintaining friendly relations and growing in peace. Alsac and Ruhr are turned into demilitarized and turned over to league of nations. Various small countries pop up and are either absorbed into the winner of the Russian civil war or retain independence. One of the participants of the conflict sees more resentment and someone militant rises to power there 20 years later and everyone rerolls as history always does. Facist Britannia anyone?
Bro jus yappin
imagine being a german general trying to explain to the stubborn military dictatorship that there are hundreds of thousands of fresh american troops landing in france every month
Good video.
Shouldnt the ottomans get libya back from italy instead of germany getting libya?
"Germany always wins a world war if America doesn't get involved"
- Matt Mitrovich, the Alternate Historian
Except that's not true. They basically lost the napoleonic wars until the russians saved them. Not to mention numerous wars as the holy roman empire.
@@mappingshaman5280 but you have to understand that germany’s political structures were so much different back then that they do not equate to the German Empire’s capabilities. The HRE wasn’t centralised and there was a lot of infighting, which is why they did not have much success in the wars they fought from the 15th - 18th century, plus it was mostly Austria calling the shots (a gross oversimplification of what actually happened but still applies). Prussia itself was not enough to combat the French at that time, due to the military strategies of Napoleon and how French military tactics at that time beat the Prussians, and they did not have the economic capabilities compared to post-Napoleonic wars, where they gained the rich lands of the Rhineland. So while it is on surface level true that “Germany” hasn’t won wars without outside parties intervening, it’s important to understand that the German Empire as an entity had formed much after the periods you mentioned, upon which they on their own had the legitimate power to combat the major power of Europe had it not been for America’s support of the Entente.
@@im_b_ran except to start Britain did stop ships going to Germany and the US tried to throw its weight around, which didn't work on Britain forcing the US to choose a side so we know this scenario was probably never possible.
1) the video only looks at the US being neutral and Britain for some reason automatically just goes with it.
when in fact there are many options for Britain, china was industrializing and had massive agriculture growing too at this point, and with the Suez under entente control they could blockade Germany and abandon the US with very little extension to resources movements, and possibly free some ships up.
2) when it comes to manpower the British empire alone had 4x more population than the central powers combined, double the population if the US joined the central powers, include France's empire too then if push came to shove im sure more manpower could be encouraged, plus japan was offering tens of thousands of troops for the war that could have been used.
3) even if we leave out the potential for china to help Russia with direct supplies, the video leaves out the fact Germany sent Lenin to Russia to cause the collapse, and that was because Germany wasn't doing well, if the video wants to pretend like everything would happen exactly as it did in reality, then he needs to come up with a reason to replace why Germany sent Lenin, because if they're doing better in this timeline there's no reason to suggest they would have even thought of it.
if you ask me this video is about as well thought out as the USA vs the world video, where it just pretends everybody just watches and does nothing while america attacks everyone.
@@mappingshaman5280 that wasn't Germany
Na if the USA wouldn't have taking part in WW2, Germany would have lost it anyway. Instead of the occupation as we now it, in our timeline, they probably be completely occupied by Russia instead.
This guy needs to make a channel called "Impossible History" where he only covers theory's so ridiculous that there is no timeline where it could have happened
... kaiserreich?
I do wonder what about Austro-Hungary? It was in much more worse shape than Germany so i expect that without any massive reforms it would still fall apart even in this scenario.
My Main, and only Major, contention with this scenario is that i do Not believe Austria-Hungary would survive the war. Even with a German victory, they could Not keep their Empire together, and would, at best, become an Austrian rump state, and at worst, Join Germany.
A comment for the algorithm.
An alternate history of what it the USA didn’t betray its values with the Federal Reserve and income tax would be an interesting one. Certainly, that’d mean no Great Depression
What if the death of Franz Ferdinand prevented world war 1?
Cool video
I really love your videos, even if I often disagree with you but I think that's exactly how alt history should work. In the end we can only speculate about what would have happen. Keep up the good work 👍
Thank you
The Entente would surrender.
Not France though.
France would Not surrender.
Why would they? Face another humiliation? Like in 1870? They would collapse!
Love History!!
0:30 Is that "La Victoire est à Nous" playing in the background?
This is basically a Kaiserreich lore video, without the branding or details.
yes
AMAZING VID
germany would clutch the 1v3 for sure imo
Your maps incorrectly show Cyprus under Ottoman control, it should be British
But germany also had a few colonies
If Germany held the Eastern European lands. Poland and Czechoslovakia would never be born. And since Russia gave up fighting the war because of the Revolution. Those lands cannot be considered a German victory. Because if there was a Armistice and Germany had to pay reparations then technically they lost.
WW1 was a War between Empires. For the Entente we have the British Empire, the French (which also have an Empire), the Belgians (also have an Empire). Meanwhile the Central Powers consist of the Germans (which has an Empire), the Ottoman Empire, & the Austro Hungarian Empire, all of which have Empires too.
Typical Behavior of Empires (particularly Colonialism & Imperialism): Conquer other people's land, enslave those they conquered to show off their Power Dominance & taking away Human Rights & Civil Rights in the name of showing off their Power & Dominance.
American People Values "by theory": should be AGAINST any form of Imperialism & should practically focus on Human Rights & Civil Rights & Democracy.
Therefore, "by theory" America SHOULD NOT be involved in WW1 at all. Because if they got involved in WW1, doesn't matter who side America choose, America's involvement in WW1 would symbolizes that there's a Paradox to the "American Value" & that America seems to favor Racism, favor Greed & Power Dominance, & Against Human Rights & Against Civil Rights & also Against Democracy too, which you can see is a huge paradox to the "American Value" of "Life, Liberty, & the Pursuit of Happiness".
Reality, we already see what happened: America involves in WW1. Their involvement causes WW2, which later causes Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, & now with Ukraine & future potentials with Taiwan.
By theory, if America does not involved in WW1, we can speculate no such thing as Nazi Germany & WW2. Also no such thing as Vietnam War or modern day War on Terror in Afghanistan. By theory it's None of America's Business to be involved with other countries' affairs. So America should have stayed neutral.
But history already shows the choices the past American Government has made. Additionally, America got involved in Vietnam & later got involved with Afghanistan in the modern day. It comes to show that the American Government does not follow the "American Values" & simply follows more towards all Empires worldwide.
The Central Powers had a huge moral boost with Russia's collapse, trade through Turkey and Central Asia was restored and their enemies didn't even capture any territory of the Central Powers with the exception of the defeated Russia.
Entente had a huge moral hit, riots among the French soldiers and they were as broke as the Central Powers.
Both sides would agree to a negotiated piece in this scenario.
I was hoping he would talk about the French mutany in 1917. I am not sure France would have been able to go on the offensive ever again without America .
@@miwi9883 lol
Technicaly, the entente held alot of ottoman lands in the Middle East. Aswell as some very small border territories, both in german Lothringen, the bulgarian border I think and the austrian-italian border.
@@sofiaormbustad7467 Apart from the Ottoman losses the occupied territories were small enough to say that they technically didn't occupy territory of the central powers
@@miwi9883no it would have just not anytime soon. The french also didn’t need offensives, they needed to wait. So bad Britain and France merely held the line by 1918 or 1919 they’d be able to cut through German lines like butter.
Really liked this video and i would love the see the continuation of this what if into the 20's and 30's
man i love this channel so much i find the vid very intresting!
I love how you can click on one of these videos, scroll through the first 5 comments and then close it again because it already tells you that it wouldn’t have made sense at all.
Would love to see this scenario continued! Great job as always :)
This just seems like a perfect scenario for a Hitler-Napoleon regime to raise in france for a round 2
What about Portugal??? They were an entente allie
So its mostly like Kaiserreich, thats pretty neat
You gotta make a part 2
Great job!
Hello everyone, love the video
just putting a comment in cuz i like this guy
Well, without America the Entente just had to wait for the Ottomans, Bulgarians and Austrians to collapse, which was inevitable due to the breakthrough in the Macedonian front, and when it was done, Germany would have surrendered
Maybe, I mean if America is trading with both sides and a economically down entente, the Germans would have a much easier time bringing some of their army (like Russia) to those places most notably the Macedonian front to hold probably a lot longer than in our timeline, while yes the ottomans were bad I still think they could hold on a little longer (especially if the allies can’t make progress in other fronts)
Here's an interesting question: What if the Austrian army had had tanks in 1914? There was an officer who recognized after a wargame how wars in the future will play out with current technology, and so came up with a concept for what we would call a tank today, which he proposed to the Austrian army in 1910. However, they rejected the idea, as they didn't believe his prognosis. If we imagine a world, however, where the Austrians did buy this concept, how might it affect the course of the war?
Probably not much, the tanks that participated on the side of Britain and France surprised German soldiers, but that’s it; there were too primitive and too few in order to do something relevant
Without America Entente is nothing
@@jqness4461You’ve got another 4 years to perfect the design, sure you’re developing weapons in peacetime rather than by actual wartime experience, but by the time war breaks out, we could imagine tanks would be a formidable weapon on the battlefield and might actually allow AH to make good gains against Serbia. Tanks would definitely not win them the war though.
Thank you for this edu-vid. I will post this video to my class (for debate). SPSV - Vallejo, Ca.
What if everyone was neutral
Then hoi4 kaiserreich's lore is plausible after all hahaha
French revanchism was already pretty strong during WW1, and wiþ such a devestating defeat i see lots of political instability and potentiolly an extreamist goverment on þe rise
This is basically Kaiserreich, isn't it?
12:54 Wrong!! There's just no way Italy would go unpunished!!! Why? They betrayed Germany & Austria, I'm pretty sure those 2 would seek vengeance against Italy for this! So Italy would have to be divided into 2 occupation zones, With the Ottomans getting the south. While the north would be tricky, Austria should get it... but you say they're too weak for that? Germany you claim doesn't want it, Bulgaria is also too weak + uninterested + too far. I guess they could stay independent, but it's more likely they will be given to Spain... despite their neutrality!!
This channel should get more attention and really can compleat with the big alternative history channels.
I swear the map with German Empire without Memel is driving me nuts
I was thinking the same thing lol
Before I keep watching, If America had joined 1914 then I think it would've been harder to convince the public of the benefit of the war, after all it was before sinkings like lusitania that killed Americans and before the Zimmerman telegram so America would've been seen as America throwing itself into others business it has no right being in. Also the Americans were in fact likely the thing that decided the Entente victory as after 4 long years of war both sides were exhausted as hell and the fresh American troops against exhausted german troops certainly helped turned the tide a ton and after all the troops moved from the east that had it relatively easy on the eastern front without the Americans and no help coming the french would certainly have broke in the kaiserschlatt however I'm interested to see if my points are brought up in the video
Nope don't mut it at all, Yje Trance army was suffering from mutinies about the time the USA joining the fight was announced.
This channel is far too underrated rn, can’t wait to see it grow from here!
Great video! Keep up the good work
Good
Nice vid
Another great video
KaiserReich?
This would've been the best outcome. WW2 as we know it, would not happen. Japan though may still try to take over the Pacific.
Great content, keep it up
They wouldve starved to death by 1919
Please work on your thumbnails. Your work is absolutely incredible, with better quality of thumbnails you could potentially grow much faster.
America be like: It's just business
Why Crimea is red here?
Don't you know that Geramans were there in 1918? Or maybe you consider Crimea as a part of russia?
WTF?!
Hi
It is extremely difficult to envision American trade with Germany, particularly given the traditional (200 year relationship, admittedly "rocky" at times) ties with Great Britain. The US simply had more ideological, political and, most importantly, CULTURAL sympathies with the UK than the (perceived) pariah of an 'empire-eager' Germany. Certainly, we NEVER would have COMPELLED the UK to open its blockade to achieve said trade with Germany. Especially, under WILSON! Unthinkable, particularly given the furor among the American populace against such a 'strong-arm' tactic against our oldest and closest ally! And all of this is WITHOUT a single American passenger -- or --- arms-carrying ship being sunk, even without direct provocation, by the Kriegsmarine!
In short, PERHAPS Rockefeller (oil baron), Morgan (banking baron), Ford (auto baron), etc. COULD have profited from the higher "trade war" you imagine, BUT the popular outrage (even with the POSSIBLE increase in industrial jobs) -- coupled -- with the PRO-Socialist union movements and strikes (after the Russian Revolution and international spread/appeal of Marxism like a virus) here in the US (which WERE a mitigating factor I encourage you to look into) would have offset these greedy billionaire's plans for maximizing their profit. Simply put, the 'returns' would not warrant the 'investment,' particularly with the US already profiting ENORMOUSLY by underwriting the British economy and military industrial complex (and through Britain the rest of the Entente, esp. France).
While Germany certainly COULD have won the Great War (or certainly attained an amicable peace agreement, at the least) BEFORE its own internal, economic collapse ('Kaiserschlact' Offensive in '18, or, preferably before that, concentrating its primary military effort against Russia rather than France in '14 - '16, for instance). THIS is, without any disrespect intended, a HIGHLY illusory and illogical re-writing of history to an extreme degree. That being said, I appreciate the effort invested. Thanks!
What if the US and Japan were allies in ww2?
If only
damn this channel is too underated
Congrats on the first sponsor
Thanks.
5:55 Just a correction, international trade doesn’t work like an auction. It also doesn’t involve governments (unless it has to do with the WTO or tarrifs), it involves manufacturers and suppliers. However, during total, all-encompassing wars such as the First World War, manufacturers are often contracted by their respective governments in order to manufacture a specific amount of a certain good (e.g. Chrysler was contracted by the US government during the Second World War).
Additionally, it wouldn’t necessarily automatically benefit the United States, because now manufacturers and suppliers alike would be hard pressed to keep up with demand from both blocs, instead of just one, and of course high demand with low supply inevitably leads to higher inflation. Regardless, really enjoyed the video and keep up the good work. 👍🏽
Good vid. I think it was wise to cut the vid when you did considering how many times people have pondered already on what a post ww1 world would look like if Germany won
Let's say the following: The Americans are so upset about the Easter Uprising, that they demand Britain to give independence to Ireland. Britain refuses. This is used by the German Chancellor to shift the American opinion completely against Britain. At the beginning of 1917 the Americans start to cut Britains supplies and by July 1917 they are fully neutral: No troops, money or weapons. This changes a lot. The October Revolution still happens. But then everything changes:
No Vardar-Offensive, so Bulgaria would stay in the war and the Second Battle at the Piave River would go worse for Italy. Without any supply - because all supply went to France, to stop Germany capturing Paris - Italy would most likely give up, meaning that France is in a Two Front-War now. France would either give up or redirect troops, in the latter case the CP could even bring Spain into the war. Britain wouldn't have the capabilities to support Portugal now and Spain could even conquer Gibraltar. So the Entente would give up.
Peace-Treaties: Treaty of Bresk-Litowsk and Treaty of Budapest confirmed, than Treaty of Potsdam, the treaty with France: 10 billion D-Mark and the rest of the September-Program, Treaty of Rome, with Italy of course: giving Libya as puppet to the Ottomans, maybe paying reparations to the Austrians, Treaty of Sofia, with the Balcans: Split of Serbia, giving parts of Thrace to Bulgaria and Greek islands to the Ottomans, Japan has only to pay for taking the colonies, Britain maybe, but even that could be rejected without problems for Britain.
Interwar-Period: America would boom less, but nevertheless. In Austria Charles I. would implement the United States of Greater Austria. In OTL, the Entente promised a lot of countries independence, so that doesn't work, but what's the worth of such a promise, if you are on the loosing side? Germany would put down the Spartacus-riots and does other things to stabilize Middle Europa and the Ottomans would save their country with the help of Atatürk. France and Britain would fall to fascism, Russia stays commie.
WW2: Basically the loosers teaming up against the winners. France would fall and than Russia. It's even likely, that Japan would join the CP, because Mongolia was a Russian puppet and the Japanese wouldn't have much oil-problems, as they can get it from the Ottomans. So France and the USSR would fall, in this case the Ottomans with their reformed army can conquer the Suez and Middle Africa some British colonies. The more stable USGA would conquer Italy in no time.
Peace-Treaties: No big changes here. Germany would have conquered France in no time, thanks to Belgium being a puppet. So France would likely have to change government and join Middle Europa. Finnland gains Karelia and the Kola-Island, Ireland gains complete independence and Russia maybe also joins Middle Europa. Japan would get it's Greater-East-Asian-Co-Prosperity-Sphere.
Aftermath: There would be a Cold War between Middle Europa and a form of NATO. No Al-Quaida or ISIS, as this movements would be crushed by the Ottomans, before they can even rise, no Yugoslavian War, as no Yugoslavian war. No Gulf Wars, as Iraq wouldn't exist. There might be some Proxy-Wars, but this doesn't change one thing:
This world would be a better world than ours.
Honestly in my opinion, neither side would be very stable after a war with America trading with both sides extensively, favoring neither, possibly resulting in a chaotic unstable europe after the war. somewhat resembling the Hoi4 mod, Red Flood. Japan would’ve also taken advantage of the situation the great powers of Europe were in, and seize their colonies, with the exceptions of New Zealand, Australia, and Polynesia, possibly even allowing East Timor and Southern New Guinea to stay in European hands at least. (This is just speculation don’t criticize me)
We need you, an American, need to go to France and fight alongside British, Indian, and other allied soldiers in Belgium against the Germans because some Serb shot an Austrian in Sarajevo........No ...Yeah when i say out loud it doesn't make sense.