Texas 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ค. 2024
- No one should be surprised that Texas is looking rough at 2C. If you're planning on building resilience in Texas, you need to know what you'll be up against. You're facing some of the most extreme and complex challenges in the entire nation. In this video I do my best to give you a clear picture of what to expect across Texas at 2C.
00:00 Introduction
02:34 Temperature
07:53 Plant hardiness zones
09:18 Precipitation
10:56 Extreme storms
14:00 Sea level rise
19:21 Fires
20:00 Action steps
24:09 Conclusion
Here's a link to the NCA5:
nca2023.globalchange.gov/
To Dustin's Toolset:
public.tableau.com/app/profil...
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer:
coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr
NCA4 (for hurricane tracks, usually page 1492 in a pdf viewer)
nca2018.globalchange.gov/
Reasonable Prep Video:
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I try to imagine what the future looks like. Texas is in a growth boom but a lot of people moving here won’t stay. I wonder if or when enough people will leave Texas to cause a Detroit type budget crutch on municipalities. When will be bulldoze empty or abandoned houses to prevent fires. How does a state build resilience when it doesn’t believe in the problem and the taxes dry up. I have a hard time imagining a good future in Texas. I am a seventh generation Texan BTW.
@BenHuttash it's a sad situation. Too many complex problems and no leadership willing to do the work.
It's terrible to think about the burden on those who stay. What you describe in your comment, it's very realistic.
But, if people are determined to find a way to keep going, there are parts of Texas where communities could find a way forward. It'd be very tough, but plausible.
My family spent a year in the Detroit area for work, and we'd go into the city. The urban decay was an intense experience, some of the things I saw were quite shocking.
But there were also some places where the people who stayed were making really cool communities. Regreening, putting in urban farms, the art scene was incredible. I don't think anyone in the Detroit ghetto thought they'd be eating from their neighborhood farm- not garden, pretty large scale operations- even ten years ago except for some crazy dreamers. Sometimes the good future is beyond our ability to see, but that doesn't mean it's not there.
All that said, this outlook is way too rough for my taste. I'm sorry to share such bad news.
Ppl should stop voting for Republicans
Talked with a couple that moved from Texas to the Great Lakes . They saw the intense heat 2 years ago and got themselves and their children out.
This still hurt even though I'm already in the process of getting out, so I know it's gotta be a gut punch to any Texans who aren't already aware. But this information is SO important and needs to be heard, and I think you shared it in the perfect way. I'm glad you didn't sugarcoat it because anyone who stays needs to understand what they're up against and that they MUST prepare.
@julieghoulie3 as I was going through the research for this one I kept looking for a bright spot, a place that was less bad, and there's just no part of the state that isn't facing multiple serious threats. Thanks for the feedback on tone- it's such a hard outlook and I'm glad to hear you think I pitched it right. Wishing you and your family all the best & a safe landing.
What i think people fail to grasp is so far we are looking at capping out at 2C if we dont keep doing what we should to curb global warming or if the warming is on run away track then itll get much worse faster then expected.
@EdwardM919 I think it's totally worth keeping that range of outcomes in mind. I feel like it's important to understand the 2C projections because 2C is the next step, that's where we're heading. Even if we make big changes right away, sticking at 2C is like a best-case scenario. But I never mean to imply that we shouldn't think or look beyond 2C.
For my perspective, I think of this like rock climbing. One step at a time, get info on the next problem as it comes into view. That way I don't get so overwhelmed I lose my grip. But, that's just my approach, I think others are valid, too.
It is changing at the very top line of modeling projections.
I weep for my native state in more ways than one. I got out and I'm trying to encourage my family to leave, too.
@sdstacey46 it's an incredibly serious outlook, and I'm not one of those who looks for scary things to say about every place. I wouldn't be giving such a serious message if it wasn't what the science indicates.
Good on you for getting out. I hope these resources will help give you ways to communicate with your family. The most important thing you can do is get settled in a safer area, and hope that gives your loved ones a base to land in a worst-case scenario.
Keep up the amazing work Dr. Schoerning!
@ConnorGutman thank you
Thank you for this. By the way, we call our waterways "bayous". The city is constantly widening, deepening, and reinforcing them.
@improperhoustonian thanks for the info- I had no idea. And it's a good thing the city is on it, they are sure looking lively in the outlook.
Thanks!
@farhanmalik6576 thanks, I appreciate your support!
Hello Dr Emily you did a great job on this video..I appreciate your honesty and not sugar coating this outlook is the best way to go so thank you for that..I value your honesty and your scientific knowledge on these upcoming 2C and above scenarios and ive learned so much since subbing to your channel..I dont know if i mentioned it before but i live just south of Arlington TX which is right in between Dallas and Fort Worth..Having gone thru that winter of 2021 and the 55 days of extraordinary heat and humidity that we had last year I was wondering...well is this going to continue and get worse..Deep down i must say my hunch was it would and that this year would be the year im going to make up my mind...Iam in the next couple of years going to sell and leave..Im an early adopter and I can definitely see the writing on the wall..And the heat and humidity coming our way will be too much for me to bear personally..The outlook for Twin Falls idaho and Grand Junction Colorado are stable and much more livable past 2C as I will be moving into that retirement time..The heat and humidity on folks in their 60s and 70s is a real tough thing to bear as alot of people are dealing with health issues as they get older..Im healthy now and hopefully that will continue..Thanks for all you do for us Dr Emily we really appreciate you!! Sorry for the too long novel!!
@michaelschiessl8357 I'm always glad to hear from you, and I really appreciate you having shared your ground notes as a comment on the Colorado video regarding Grand Junction. For people looking for a classic warm winter, clear dry air, not too brutal summer retirement destination... all the signs are looking great for Grand Junction. That city looks solid in terms of the scientific projections, and I was really happy to hear from you it looks & feels good on the ground, too.
Wishing you continued good health and that you land in a community you really love. This is a good year to make a plan.
And I tell you, if it were me looking at the writing on the wall, I would also say this was clear enough for my tastes.
@@AmericanResiliency glad to hear from you as well Dr Emily..Classic case in point yesterday and today. Tropical storm Alberto brought 10-14 inches of rain and storm surges into the Texas coast including the towns of St Louis Pass,Corpus Christi, Galveston, Rockport, Port Isabel ,Surfside and even Louisiana..These storm surges are bringing in Saltwater not freshwater and Governor Abbott has made a disaster declaration for 51 counties on the coast. The writing on the wall is there on this for sure and this isn't even a Hurricane with a category its a medium sized Tropical storm!!
@@michaelschiessl8357 What?! I try and stay on top of the news, but I totally missed this. That is not a good start to hurricane season, a tropical storm kicking off a disaster declaration already!
@@AmericanResiliency I know Emily right!! There's just too much going on ..getting tough to keep track of it all...New Mexico Fires near Ruidoso going on as well..they got some rain from the Alberto storm today but it was 2 days to late..talk about ironic..And climate scientist Paul Beckwith put out a video on TH-cam showing how more then 1,000 people have died in the past two weeks on the annual pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia..People were dropping everywhere and temps were in the 120- 125' range including wet bulb temperatures from the humidity coming off the Red sea..The major news channels haven't covered it so not too many people know about it..Just absolutely horrific what is going on..😔😔
Woo! Time to get weird!
@davidwatson7604 anyone who wants to dig in in Texas, you gotta get BEYOND weird. Like, when you read about those gel panels that pull drinking water out of the air for home use? That's the kind of crazy stuff you'd need to keep going in Texas.
It’s so painful to see what is happening. It’s impossible to ignore now. I got out of Texas in 2019, but obviously the warming is coming for us all. I sometimes think that I shouldn’t have had children… what kind of world are they going to grow old in? It’s just so horrifying.
Dr. Schoerning made an excellent video about talking to and helping our children get ready for climate change. It's a more philosophical video, and it was very supportive of me as a parent who looks at the future with a big gulp. th-cam.com/video/uC0k7FkRyJk/w-d-xo.html
@potatopotatow I'm a parent, too, I think all of us who look at this information and look at our children, it is horrible all the things from which we cannot protect them. I try to remember that we are still in the good times, and that my kids like their lives. Sometimes I think about the terrible things other parents have faced throughout history. It helps me to put my feelings in a larger context, & to try and stay present in the world now. But all this is so hard. You are not alone.
I have done a lot of teaching on climate with children and I am always surprised by how resilient children are. In my experience they don't take in this information the way we do, they are more able to look forward. Many of them are angry (at adults, esp older adults), but not so many of them feel the profound grief as in our generation.
I love your channel!! Wish I would have found it awhile ago❤
@larragunn2809 glad you're here now! Let me know if you have any questions where I could help
Could you make a video just about sea level rise projections? I know NOAA said that sea level rise by 2050 would be 14 - 18 inches for gulf states. You seem to believe 36 inches is more likely, why? I wouldn't be surprised if NOAA was conservative, but a 1 foot difference is huge. I'd appreciate a video that dove into that specifically.
@pinecone1204 just writing that I got your other comment & am on it. Worth clarifying, it's hard to say exactly how fast it's coming in, because there is so much coming out around the ice models indicating our understanding was really wrong. Big liquid & slush areas under what we thought was solid ice, instability in large regions of Antarctica that we thought were pretty stable. You might like to check out this webpage- this guy was a postdoc with NOAA- showing ice contemporary measurements, you can see how weird 2023 got.
zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
What would be your top 5 locations to move to in US? If not here where in the world?
I'll be able to answer this better after I finish my research on the NCA5.
The highest-capacity destination region looks to be the northern Midwest, but there are lots of good pockets- I'm putting together info for Connecticut and that whole state looks fantastic.
After I finish the NCA5 I intend to do more outlooks for other countries. I'm really interested in learning more about the projections for Hokkaido, Japan.
This video reminds me of a reddit page I came across that is dedicated to Austinites relocating to upstate NY. I am from Indiana, a state that was losing population up until around 2020, and many of those leaving moved to Texas. Now, I'm seeing a lot of people coming back from Texas because of the heat and how expensive it's gotten. Same with Florida, Hoosiers love Florida, and many are coming back from Florida due to hurricanes, insane energy costs, and the newer phenomenon of insurance shooting up 300% in 2 years. Texas needs to be on high alert when it comes to preserving its infrastructure, since it's at a major crossroads to be experiencing dangerous heat, hurricanes, flooding, tornadoes and even cold snaps. Better yet, I wonder what Michigan and Minnesota are doing to help prepare for the wildfire threat. Government officials in those states seem to be aware of the climate threats, so I wonder what they're doing.
@drewg7036 Indiana's outlook is solid at 2C, and you all have done some great work on infrastructure investment. Last I checked Indiana's first in the nation in that regard. I am not surprised to hear you're starting to get people coming back to the area.
There's a lot of action in Michigan and Minnesota to prepare on that front- major forestry collaborations. The states, especially Minnesota, are putting in tons of new trees of species that will be more able to survive in the changing conditions. Keep the tree canopy up so that the benefits of shade continue. At every level, people are working to get managed burns in, dead wood out, and introduce new trees that can survive.
It's very ambitious. You might be interested in this- they're doing a BIG shift in Superior National Forest. We'll see if it works- general feeling is, better to try.
www.fs.usda.gov/detail/superior/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD1151848
@AmericanResiliency Indiana does seem to have an overall optimistic future. There's minimal threats over hurricanes or rising sea levels and massive wildfires, but tornado alley is heading east and north, so it's anticipated that we will see more tornadoes. The state does border a Great Lake, but we are still facing issues of water availability as well as the pollution that plagues our waterways and groundwater.
I hope the northern states are able to manage these changes effectively. I remember in your Dust Bowl video, you mentioned factory and corporate farming causing soil erosion, and we in Indiana are seeing a huge increase in corporate farms and, subsequently, a decrease in family farms.
I sure hope that all of the efforts the northern states are making are effective. Uncontrolled wildfires are good for nobody, and doing whatever we can to manage them is a great thing. Thank you for the link, I will surely be reading it, and watching your videos as they come!
Dr Emily I hope you guys are ok I see there's flooding going on on Iowa..Hope everything is OK!!
@michaelshiessl8357 thanks for checking in- we're good! I live more in the center of the state, and we're up on a hill. Sometimes people in my town get stuck up here but that's our only direct flood danger,
Hello, would it be possible to get an invite link to the discord? The link in the video description appears to be expired.
@bgribbzen here you go! discord.gg/PNNnNFeq
@@AmericanResiliencythank you!
@@AmericanResiliency I'd like one, too! The one here is expired or no longer works.
@@ProfessorDesiree sorry! Here you go discord.gg/Nt9FDrbJ Anyone else reading this, if you go to our website, www.americanresiliency.org, there's a permalink invite at the top!
@@AmericanResiliency I went to the site for the permalink (waited too long to try the one you shared with me), and I'm getting a message that it's expired. In case it's helpful, I searched for info on making a permanent invite link and I'll paste the answer here. You may have already done these settings, in which case I can ask Jonathan to help troubleshoot. ("To create a permanent Discord link, go to your server, click 'Invite People', then select 'Edit Invite Link', set 'Expire After' to 'Never', and 'Max Number of Uses' to 'No Limit'")
❤
Do you plan to do an update for NC?
@ElleryEvans I did a NC update before I moved away from 2050 language. But the federal projections were figuring we would get to 2C around 2050, so I think it's reasonable to use this as a 2C outlook.
th-cam.com/video/iJ2f-xuWl_Q/w-d-xo.html
I'd go into the NOAA tool and look at higher end rise scenarios on your own, because I only model I think 3 feet in this video.
A lot of NC looks pretty good in the 2C projections. Many people have been interested in Asheville's resilience potential for decades- some good people there.
On the wildfire map, i think that may be telling you something different than how you interpreted it. Thats fire risk days between May and October, but in TX, we are already near 100% of those days, and since you cannot double 100%, the color looks mild.
I do not believe that this translates into actual risk not increasing during summer, just that you need a percent change in days of super-mega-fire-risk to see it.
Same goes for loss of cold days. Its hard to lose 5 days under 32 if you didnt start with 5 days under 32.
@mrbeansification thanks for this note- on figure 7.4, I interpreted it the way I did because it shows your risk as pretty low on the left hand side (which is historical). But I will admit, that left hand figure seemed kinda weird and wrong to me. I didn't think you had such low historical risk for wildfires, but I trusted the figure.
These type of ground notes from the community are really valuable to build understanding- appreciate your help!
Superbly informative, and honest, as I think we all need to be! Sleepwalking got us here, so that waking up (as much as possible), is our only defense.
There's just one thing you recommended, that I question, which was given to people of Texas who like living along the coast. Which was for some Texans to move to the Georgian, or South Carolina coasts. In El Nina years, at least, the threat of potential Cat 5 hurricanes has suddenly been massively magnified, by the drastic increase of ocean heat. Still safer than Texas I think.....
I live in Southeastern CT., about 25 miles north of Long Island Sound. The greatest climate change threat here suddenly becomes the potential of powerful winds to be slamming trees into peoples roofs, over a widespread area.
One doesn't hear much about it, but the damage to the Insurance Industry, and repercussions to homeowners indicates that pretty soon homeowners will come to envy renters, as they will either be dropped from insurance, or face crushing premiums, and the rise of crushing deductibles.
Thank you.
@mrrecluse7002, the qualifier "safer than Texas" is unfortunately doing a big lift in my recommendation!
Sometimes it's easier for people to think about moving if they're going to a place that is "more like" home. There's no coast I think is actually a good idea as a destination at this time (said by the inlander), but I know some people love to be on the coast so much, they can't think about moving away from the water. I'd sure rather have my grandma along the coast of Georgia than staying in Galveston if those were my choices.
I tell you, I don't know what will happen with the home insurance situation- it feels like this could be the summer it totally breaks. They are starting to cancel policies for riverine flooding, too. One point where I might disagree is that it'll be easier on renters- I think more renters will be stuck in damaged building the landlord can't/wont repair as the insurance payouts dry up.
Connecticut is on my calendar for July 18. I appreciate the note about this emerging hazard there.
@@AmericanResiliency Yes! The incredible heat tipped the scales for me also, after contemplating it, though inland does seem considerably safer in northern areas, despite personal preferences.
I cannot recommend the following video, enough. The title to plug in on TH-cam is "The possible collapse of the U.S. home insurance system." It was so thoroughly sobering for me, that it changed my whole psychology on the value of renting vs. home ownership. Compensated losses in the hundreds of thousands, or millions of bucks are increasingly coming down the pike for homeowners, as things worsen, and worsen, and worsen. I'm making myself laugh....can anything be stressed enough, at the rate things are going?
Welcome to CT., on July 18. The amount of forested areas have dwindled to (I think), 60%, or so. But all it takes are tropical storms to create destruction, and massive power outages, from the falling trees. Some 10-15 years ago Hurricane Irene approached the State, and turned into a tropical storm, just before it arrived. We lost power for 1 full week. Just one CAT 5 hurricane, or less, could do an Acapulco number on us.
We're in a heavily wooded area, and I'm prepping for the potential to be trapped here for awhile, due to overwhelmed cleanup crews.
Wouldn't surprise me if insurance industry would silently drop some of them climate related high risk categories from their policies, like with many of those cookie acceptance tick boxes on the web. Most will accept the new policy without reading, only to find that, when the need arises, certain types of storm or fire damage is no longer covered, or just a minor percentage of what was covered in older policies.
@reuireuiop0 ugh, this is waaaayyy too plausible. Kinda thing you can imagine happening now.
I think winter temperatures across North America and Canada are going to get warmer.
And I doubt sea levels will rise more than a foot or so.
It'd be nice if sea level rise turned out to be a nothing burger. But, I'm just trying to report on the evidence coming in, and all the reports coming in from Antarctica these past 18 months are really wild.
@@AmericanResiliency If there was a global effort by all developed nations to harvest the polar ice before it melts into the ocean.
Melt that ice, then use it to water hot deserts around the world. We could reduce global warming and want some claim may be sea level rise.
Plus, we can cool ocean temperatures down if we was a machine to vacuum up cooler deep ocean water and dispense the deep water onto the warmer surface.
@@DanielWatson-vv7cd this last comment of yours is called “magical thinking”
It has already risen about a foot in the past century. 40 years ago Miami and Miami Beach never had high tide flooding. Now where there is no tidal flood control infrastructure they get frequently flooded!
@@user-uo7fw5bo1o Is this because Florida is sinking. Could this be because of natural erosion within that region.
There are areas around the globe where land is rising or subsiding. Nothing stays the same forever.
Thought Texas outlawed talking about Climate Change.
so many politicians in this country interested in grandstanding, not enough interested in solving any problems. substantially less flashy activity.
@@AmericanResiliency Worse so many politicians want to tell people what their itching ears want to hear. Right now the conservative politicians especially the religiously conservative ones are winning at that art of persuasion. The day will come when the conservative rank and file will realize that they haven't conserved _anything!_
Born and raised in DFW. I'm 35 now and have bee studying and publishing on my channel about this information for years. I saw the writing on the wall in 2020 and got out. Texas will be essentially uninhabitable by the end of the decade. There will be tens of millions of refugees pouring out from that state in the coming decade and no housing to support them. America as a whole will crumble.
As Dr. Schoerning says, let's get ready!
@TheDoomWizard it's a rough situation. Glad you got out. It matters to me to do what I can to spread the word, maybe find ways people can hear it better. In the end we are all mortal creatures, but I'd rather know than not know, and do what I can to respond.
I'm over 40 a life long Texan and two things I know to be true whether in the past or my future prediction. Summer is hot over 100° and winter is cold under 30°. Thats it y'all. Thats the prediction. It's been that way forever and it will continue to be that way. Some pretty gragh or switching over from my 2500 ram to a cybertruck isnt going to cool or warm the planet. Y'all stop trying to control the weather.
sir, if there's one thing I can't tolerate, it's the implication I might encourage anyone do anything with a cybertruck but point & laugh at it. wishing you all the best.
Good channel. but I don't think resiliency is a word. I guess no big deal. It is one now.
@russmarkham2197 I'll freely admit, the reason I chose it was 10k domain name vs a $100 domain name.... and I did not have 10k.
Resiliency is a word according to the Oxford English dictionary
I wonder what the $10k domain name was? 🤔😊
@@pendragon_cave1405 Thanks for looking that up. I wonder what is the difference between resilience and resiliency? Maybe just the letter y?