How The Rays 'Moneyball' Strategy Finally Ruined Them
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 มิ.ย. 2024
- Thanks for watching! The Tampa Bay Rays have been doing a Modern Day Moneyball Strategy in MLB in 2024, and previous seasons.
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Title: How The Rays 'Moneyball' Strategy Finally Ruined Them
By: Purely Baseball - กีฬา
They got ruined because Wander Franco cant keep his meat in check and Shane and the rest of their pitching staff has fallen to Tommy John and its in no way their fault they are just extremely unlucky
This video is trash! You are correct in your analysis. Luck does have a lot to do with baseball and WF hurt the Rays bad.
Since losing Wander on Aug 12 last year, they went 28-13 (.683) to end the regular season. Obviously it's a huge loss of production, but one player doesn't make or break a team (see: Mike Trout)
@@jamesstoddard8022 luck, but it also seems like they are using their pitchers like they are disposable. Well, when the talent runs out you are faced with a rough transition. They need to go into a different direction from what it looks like.
@@jamesstoddard8022Should have kept Adames!!!!
@@gb69-38 yeah, sure theyre not missing their 5.5 WAR in 110 games player lol
Billy Beane's version of Moneyball wasn't only about On base percentage and cheap players. The Moneyball philosophy is fluid not static.
OBP on its own pales in comparison to versatility, speed, consistent defense, and starting pitching depth
OPS is a better metric for success nowadays than just OBP on its own.
@@MrFootballman52 not to nitpick but OPS is really inferior to things like WOBA and wRC+, and it's really only used in broadcasting/media because it's easy to understand. No front-office is using OPS.
The insight of OBP for moneyball wasn't simply "OBP is valuable" -- it's that OBP is *undervalued in the market* relative to other offensive stats. So by including slugging in the calculation, you would lose that edge. That's why Moneyball _the movie_ used OBP.
But this also goes to show that this video's understanding of "moneyball" is ridiculous. In the 2010s, front offices all understood the value of OBP. there's no market inefficiency to take advantage of. So the notion that the rays' strategy is based on OBP is absurd. You can't "moneyball" the league by using OBP in the year 2024
What do you mean "ruined them"? Its one bad season. They've shown they can rebound year-to-year so, so so, SO MANY times. Its silly to use the term ruined.
Thats very true. But it’s clear this is the worst it’s been in YEARS. Things around the organization do NOT look good.
As unfortunate as it is, so many things have/ are going wrong at one singular time.
@@PurelyBaseballYT They've definitely had a bad stretch, but I just think saying they're ruined is a bit much! They have one of the smartest management groups in MLB, I have a lot of trust they will figure it out. Love your content btw.
@chairmanmeow1 Rays UP!!
Rays are finished
Ownership HAS to spend money to win. The Rays have incredible management but need a better owner desperately if they ever want to get over the hump and seriously contend for a WS
lol? Half of there rotation has been hurt all year and their best prospect hasn’t played all year. So I wouldn’t say it’s ruined them
Moneyball=On base+ cheap is such a simplification of past and present analytics its insulting.
Love this guy but this is what you get when people don’t due their research
Yeah you can tell that he didn't read the book.
Typical guy who doesn’t actually know much about the rays thinks their franchise is over because of a bad 75 game stretch with their best three players being injured, a convict, or playing terrible. Not to mention a plethora of other injuries to key rotation pieces as well
Also the fact that they went to the playoffs 5 years in a row with a WS appearance lol. This is just clickbait material.
@@dynamicsparx And..they lost every time. It's the same with the A's. It's almost like their strategy doesn't work better than any other strategies at winning the WS, and ultimately that's what it's about. Who cares if they made the playoffs? So did the Padres and they weren't using this type of strategy. And they lost too.Good job Rays , for...losing every year. I will say that though I'm not a fan of analytics in general, the video doesn't really have much meat to it...A small market team doesn't spend money, has a few injuries and loses...there's no smoking gun here. And honestly, the Rays overall are fielding a group of players who are average to not good, anyhow..so, it's not a huge shock.There's like two players on the team with any semblance of success in their career.
@@mattwhite4302 turns out winning a WS is a difficult thing to do. NY keeps chugging out payroll and haven't won either.
@@dynamicsparx They've won more WS in the last 20 years than the Rays. My core point would be we need to stop pretending mediocre, scrappy teams are anything beyond mediocre scrappy teams who sometimes get a little further. They Rays have actually had some good teams, but they've also had more really shitty teams in the last 20 years than the Yankees. The Rays are a good example of the downside of slavishly following the numbers, as well, especially in a game like baseball in a sport where other teams are just going to outspend and do it better than the smaller market, low spending teams.
The numbers say you take Blake Snell out . Common sense says you go ride or die until he proves he isn't up to the job because he happened to be very good at his job that year and was on fire in that game. I'd rather lose with the best pitcher on the mound than take them out after 73 pitches and put Joe Schmo the part time plumber in the game because he's murder on right handers and go 'oops, I don't know HOW they beat us".
@@mattwhite4302 Yankees been in the league for 120 years, Rays for 25. Rays since 2010 has had the same amount wins and more WS apperance than the Yankees. Blake Snell is a 6 inning pitcher and it was right of Cash to take him out. The Rays have the 3rd most winning percentage since they dropped the Devil in 08. What they have been doing has working and it's going to change. The spent money on Eflin, Franco, Maton so they're willing to spend but on the right players. We have good prospects coming up and we should still have a decent win in the next 2-3 years.
Rays go to the playoffs 5 years in a row...'dID mOnEYbAlL rUiN tHeM?'. Rays are 4 games behind the WC and have hovered around .500 for most of the season. Moneyball doesn't protect you from injuries or 'pedophiles'. They'll be getting Baz and Springs back. They have Caminero, Aranda, Mead and Basabe coming up to help them. Rays operations have ran well despite the circumstance.
The fact that the rays are at .500 with all of this is genuinely impressive
This shows you just don’t understand the rays. They got unlucky, they’re not ruined forever 💀
I never said they were ruined forever. 😂 but okay
To say it’s ruined is a bit much. 4 of our SPs from last season are all out. It was a domino effect starting with Springs; literally 2 starts into his 2023 season, goes down. Then Rasmussen, and then McClanahan, etc. I don’t think it’s ruined; a team is trying to perform and carry a very depleted pitching staff (with Fairbanks - our best closer - going down last week or so); injuries are something you can’t just bat an eye at. McClanahan was on his way to a Cy Young, at least finishing top 3 in the race, he was that dominant. Sure hitters can perform better but in this sport; I don’t hold that much weight against hitters because these are the best arms on the planet. We are very much used to our pitching being so great and the offense being streaky. Right now, we’re just streaky. The pitching isn’t there. Had they been healthy, 95+ wins like we usually do. The title/tagline is a lot if you ask me.
The franchise isn’t ruined; if the pitchers were healthy, we’d be just fine. Yes, Franco’s situation is terrible; but the organization will be fine. This is just one bad season.
Last time the rays were bad they shipped out certain players and replenished their team with Glasnow, meadows, and baz. They also acquired Tommy Pham. They will do the same thing this year
Damn bruh one bad year and the ravens come. The entire starting rotation is injured.
It also doesn't help that the not injured pitchers are doing horrible. The offense is terrible as well. When Amed Rosario is tied for second best hitter on your team you know you're cooked.
@@his_purpose3 hes literally hitting over .300 lmao
@@Oterixxxnah man you need to be hitting .400 to be good
I don't sympathize w/ this video. The Rays had been one of the best teams in baseball for over a decade coming into this season despite being a low budget team. now they're having ONE bad season - a bad season without mcclanahan, others with injuries, and with a low-performing Randy - and we're saying their Moneyball strategy "ruined them"? No. Not at all. It's ONE season, and it's in no way their team management approaches that caused Franco to become a convict, McClanahan to need TJS, and Randy Arozarana to be umperforming.
This has been one of the most consistently good teams in baseball. We shouldn't go acting like their approach is a failure so prematurely.
Exactly. Playoffs for the last 5 seasons. Since '08 the Rays are expected to be contenders every year. This take is completely out of touch.
and they have ELITE infield talent in the minors as well
They traded Glasnow too.
Ah yes. Counting out the Rays. Because that’s always sure to age well.
I’ll believe the Rays are ruined when they’ve spent 4 consecutive seasons in the basement, not a day before.
The Rays are always gonna pull something out of no where.
But it truly is a really rough spot for them right now. So much has gone wrong in one particular time
Postseason every year since 2019; playoffs 5 years in a row. What team are you talking about?
The thing is, Moneyball pretty much objectively works. Moneyball is the reason that even your average fan knows what "sabermetrics" is. The problem for the Rays is not that it's broken and doesn't work, but that the comparative advantage of being a small-market analytics-focused Moneyball team vanishes when everyone else in the league is doing it.
The Braves, Dodgers, and Astros are teams that have all employed Moneyball tactics in recent seasons to great success, and all three of them are currently or recently dynastic (and tbh, I'm not sold on the idea that the Astros dynasty is dead. 2024 might be a lost season for them at this point, but they still have mostly the same roster as last year, injuries have just ruined them). But also, all three of them are willing to spend in sometimes risky ways to get their success. They aren't necessarily as big on spending as the New York teams or the Padres and Phillies (although the Dodgers are most definitely big spenders), but they're all a lot closer to the top of the spending leaderboard than they are to the A's, Marlins, and Rays.
How is the league winning percentage is 0.511 if the league teams play each other and the amount of wins is the same amount of losses ?
we beat NPB one time? idk
Presumably he meant American league winning percentage
He probably used the median number rather than the mean average
@@beauhembreeI think it’s the other way around
@@ThugshakerCentral-nz3ecnah commenter is right. League average (mean) is always .500, it literally can’t be anything else. Median would vary depending on outliers.
Man the rays are going to get 90+ wins and be right in that 6th spot
“I eat crayons”
- purely baseball, probably
I was going to come here to rip this guy for declaring the Rays dead after half a season, but I see plenty of you already beat me to it. Well done.
Well to be clear, I never think this team is dead. I’ve learned my lesson several times lol, as a Red Sox fan..
Talk about Snell being pulled too early, but the reason why the Rays won their 2nd game in that series was because Dave Roberts still believed in Kenley Jansen, when qanybody watching knew he was washed. He handed game 5 to the Rays, robbed Kershaw from being the winning pitcher in a series-clinching game 5.
While they have not been good this year, I’d say ruined is a stretch. They’ve got an entire playoff caliber rotation on the shelf and you bring all of them back healthy today, you’re looking at:
McClanahan
Eflin
Rasmussen
Springs
Bradley
Baz
Pepiot
For your starters plus Caminero teetering with a call once he’s healthy too. Tough years from the lineup surely don’t help but they’ll be in the thick of it next year
No they won't. Arozarena is 100% gone after this season, Diaz is likely being moved for salary dumping purposes with only 1 guaranteed year left, Brandon Lowe is a FA after this season as those club options are getting declined, Civale and Littell have only 1 year of control left, and will also likely be moved for prospects/young players just like Glasnow was.
Along with the risk of the team moving after 2027 if the new stadium project doesn't go through - this team has serious concerns.
@@digiblader1I don’t know that I could disagree with you more if you look through the farm system you have Caminero who is ready Carson Williams is getting close not to mention Xavier Issac who has been very good. This not even mentioning the starting pitching you would have a rotation for Mcclanahn, Bradley, Pepiot, Baz, springs. This does not even consider what you get for littell , elfin, civale. Along with that what you are losing in production for some of the vets I can totally see being gained from the young guys, the only one I would hate to see go is Brandon because teams fear him because he is a good hitter,. Sooo I totally see next year as a whole new team and a scary one at that!
@@digiblader1 yea but are they “ruined”? They’ll do the same thing they always do, find these random guys and succeed, they always do. Lowe became a platoon bat last year and has problems staying healthy, and Littell/Civale were never long term pieces to their rotation anyways
@@digiblader1 team does indeed have serious concerns but they’re a well run Org and I think they bounce back well. The 3rd wildcard opens up more possibilities for fringe teams too
You don't grasp the ray way on talent. Glasnow his contract was basically up. We don't even want them to go to arbitration. This year we are 3 games out of the wild card and we get springs, and baz back in the next couple of weeks and rasmousson after the all star break. Yes the hitters are a little bit off this year but we had so many injuries that it was a put together line up most of the time, and the young guys have shined. We are one of the tops in stolen bases, and winning 1 run games. Yes a slow start but we have guys coming back, and others getting on track. Before you hit the panic button one more time we will probably have a new stadium for the 2028 season and I'm sure things will point in that direction also. As a fan I'm not watching the same guy go out there night after night year after year and into his decline. Every year I'm yelling com on kid at some new guy and watching them either figure it out or move on. I don't get that excited watching big contracts get old and hurt and getting the bottom of the barrel out of the minors for the rest of the season. That's exactly what you get with the big market teams, and they traded away the top prospects to get another name player for a playoff run. Sometime in mid summer we will have a run of wins, will it be enough to catch the Yankees and Orioles? Doubtful. But come playoff will we be there? Maybe. We have by far the best TV in baseball. The largest TV market and the best announcers, Dewayne Staats and Brian Anderson are so much better than the national guys so you really can't judge them on attendance either. To say it's different here, well it just is and they make it work.
The Ray way on talent reflects one of the challenges with baseball development: Good pitching is cheap, good hitting is expensive. This is why almost every "budget" team has their talent on the arms side (think Tampa, Milwaukee, Miami, Pittsburg, Cleveland over the last 5 years).
Pitching is proactive and therefore much more controllable developmentally. Batters react to pitches, and tend to be more reliant on certain talents that they either have or don't have that can't really be taught to an effective degree.
@@parkercrossland410 This is absolutely true but we flood the draft with pitching prospects and we keep the cream of the crop and we trade the rest for position players rather than gamble on them out of high school.
I love Harold Ramirez, hope he finds a good home somewhere
I think this video does a pretty good job of understanding how the Rays build a team, but I don't understand how this strategy has "ruined them". Not being able to compete with larger markets puts the team at a consistent disadvantage, especially in the postseason. That is something we can argue fairly easily. But as was mentioned in this video, this team was consistently considered one of the best in the AL the last 5-6 seasons, and won a pennant. This year, the Rays aren't doing anything different than they have... If anything, they have MORE money on the books than usual. But in this down year - which, by the way, every team has them - there are a lot of factors the team didn't anticipate. Nobody saw Wander getting in trouble with the law. Had it not happened, it's likely he is consistently a 6+ WAR player each year of his deal and is a perennial All-Star candidate. Because that did happen, the Rays had to fill the SS position by trading a player who should have been on the team this year, Luke Raley. They already had a shortage of lefty power bats, and they move on to fill the gap - not a money ball situation. They didn't account for a slow start from the 2021 ROTY and the 2023 batting champion, but that happened. Perhaps the most significant thing they couldn't account for were the injuries, that were mentioned. The Rays likely would have moved on from Glasnow anyway (which in theory wasn't a bad idea given how injury prone he was), but they wouldn't have needed to lean on Pepiot or one of their top prospects in Taj Bradley had they not had an entire rotation on the IL... And finally, this team usually has one of the best bullpens in baseball. This year, they have been off and on injured, inconsistent, and at times downright unlucky. The starters have been unusually prone to giving up home runs as well. Those are the reasons for one down year, but they do not explain how the "money call strategy has failed".
I mean… leaving Snell in there wasn’t any guarantee. You also need some runs. If the Rays could have gotten 2 or 3 more runs, maybe there would have been a seventh game.
Ryan Thompson has had an ERA under 2.00 since he landed in Arizona. Happy to have him here!
I'm a Rays fan and I'm not going to lie; in October, I checked the team's individual stats and Wander Franco, who didn't play at all in August and September was in the team's top 3 in every stat. It was really disappointing.
This just in. Wander Franco is a generational baseball talent. Rays still won like crazy without him in 2023. This season has very little to do with him. Yes, they're a worse team without him, obviously, but him being gone did not cause Randy and Yandy to hit like shitty minor leaguers for the first couple months of the season. Or caused Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe to miss time. Or cause them to basically not even have a catcher who can swing a bat lol wtf Rays.
Point being - The Rays miss having a player like Wander, but missing him is not what caused the bad offense to start the season.
I'm just a few mins in, but I'd say that it's not the fault any any approach that they're taking that Arozarena has been doing awful, or that Wander Franco would disappear from baseball forever. Then there's the season-ended injury to McClanahan. I'm not a Rays fan, so I'm probably missing some relevant other events that are independent of their managerial, developmental, and coaching practices. You change even two of these things this team is doing notably better.
It’s hard to underestimate the effects of the WF-type situation has on a locker room.
Siri got clowned for dancing around in a instagram live WF did just as the news was breaking and WF was still maintaining his innocence. They were friends.. I can’t imagine WF was advertising his actions, and sadly extortion does happen with girls and their mothers in poor countries - so you can’t fault him for believing his friend/teammate’s innocence when this all first came out.
I hate talking about that so I’ll jump to something I love talking about: how much I hate our hitting coach, Chad Mattola.
He has a “they’re pros, they’ll figure it out” approach to coaching that just isn’t working when guys are slumping this hard. Siri and Arozarena have started to recover to the mean, but they still just look awful taking ugly hacks a good percentage of the time. Yandy is productive with some of the worst BABIP luck you can imagine (he’s just incapable of elevating anything hit hard). And the young guys are a mixed bag.
It’s all fixable stuff that something as little as having a unified approach at the plate per pitcher would noticeably improve, but that seems opposite to CM’s philosophy. There’s been a lot of really tough watches just from a AB ugliness standpoint.
@@mickeyoakley4012 Apply for the hitting coach job if you think you can do better.
Mottola has been the hitting coach since 2016. This year is the first time the team wRC+ is below 100 since 2017. They've been great on offense as recently as last season and many times throughout his tenure as their coach.
I disagree with the assessment on the Miami Marlins. The Marlins were doomed before Peter Bendix stepped foot into office, so it's unfair to pin their collapse on him. 6 years of bad drafts, mostly bad trades, and an inabillity to develop bats within their farm system will do that to a team.
bro really just said the mlb's average winning percentage over a 3 year stretch wasn't .500 when that's literally impossible in a sport without ties
It's possible if he is only talking about the AL and the AL has a winning record against the NL.
Bro waitied years to drop this 😂
So they can unload contracts this year, bring up Caminero to replace Franco and then next year get all their young pitchers back?? And Taj Bradley has more experience as well
If anything this allows them a small reset
high quality video you def deserve more subs
appreciate you legend 🔥
At least the Rays did pull Blake Snell.. Still wonder what could have been if Buck Showalter pulled Ubaldo Jimenez for Zach Britton like he should have. They both still burn for the fanbases, but inaction based on gut feelings is arguably worse :/
Red Sox are in a pretty good position. Our young players are awesome.
Rays after he makes this video: yknow what I’ve changed my mind we’re gonna be good now
People completely misunderstand the concept of money ball. Its about finding market inefficiencies. If no one is valuing OBP? Go sign a ton of those guys cheap. If the pendulum were to swing and no one was signing big power hitters? load up on those. It was about paying as little as possible for a specific skill set, not just about getting on base.
“The growth in the application of data and analytics in baseball during the past 20 years has been extraordinary, as measured by both the levels of investment and the usage of quantitative metrics. We’ve grown from 10,000 data points to 10 billion data points during this time”. He points out that the average number of dedicated data analysts and software developers has grown to upwards of 18 FTE for leading teams, with the Tampa Bay Rays being an example of a team that is in the forefront with 39 dedicated professionals. This is a model for other professional sports leagues as well.
You know moneyball was a book right?
As a fan of an underdog, this one hurts. Thanks PB!
Moneyball isn’t about statistics or being cheap.
It’s identifying market inefficiencies using data - whether it’s statistic or otherwise - to discover it in order to operate more efficiently.
For the A’s it was OBP. The white Sox teams in the mid 2000s prioritized durable pitching to put perform their projections consistently. The Giants cornered the market on defensive metrics. And while they are a small market team on the surface, the Rays are not a small market office or player development system - they’re the best in the league; which when you think about it - is a pretty traditional approach.
People go so far out of their way to get mad at baseball teams for trying to innovate it’s so weird and dumb.
It's a scouting problem. They're not acquiring enough cheap talent. They're failing to execute the strategy. The strategy isn't failing them.
I still don’t see flaws in introducing a salary cap for teams. This makes it so that “Moneyball” won’t be necessary because every single team will have the same amount to be spend varyingly. If a team has to pay a superstar, take for example ohtani, then they would have to be much more careful where the spend the remainder of their money. Which would result in less super teams.
Hard to break it to you man but every team is driven by analytics to some degree, a lot of it comes down to spending money rather than being mathematically driven
I would say the location of the team is also a main factor y the Rays can do it. If the team is in like Utah or Colorado I doubt it would work as well.
The Money ball strategy mentioned is working. The key point you left out is the owners got their wish for an expanded playoffs. Now you barely need to be above .500 to get in. There is very very little odds change to winning the World Series between the 6 seed and the 1 (look at the Rangers, Diamondbacks last year and Phillies in 22). What I'm trying to say, you used to need to spend because you needed to win throughout the regular season. It's always been random for who wins it all, now you don't have to win a lot. You just need to win about 54% of your games and get lucky in the playoffs.
I wouldnt say the redsox got completely destroyed by this. We have several young promising players who have carried us to the record we have rn. The mookie betts trade was rough, but looking at the other trades it made sense at the time. Chris sale could not stay healthy so it made sense why we ditched him even if vaughn grissom doesnt pan out.
I would like to see most of the small market teams merge 2>1 and the resulting teams be forced to have a minimum $180 mil. payroll.
This is bs bro no way you think the rays being barely under .500 means they were ruined
I would not be so quick to write them off. They have shown a great resiliency over the years. They have a deep farm system with prospects like Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson, and Carson Williams on the horizon. They also have their injured starting pitchers coming back, McLanahan, Rasmussen, Springs, and Bass. The Rays organization has done a good job with scouting, drafting, and player development. Hopefully, the ballpark situation will be resolved and attendance will greatly increase.
The injuries and the Franco situation are to blame, they have to start a lot of their back ups and none have stepped up. Being cheap makes the situation worse but it’s not the reason they’re mid this year. They would’ve been godlike without injuries + Franco’s departure
Stronly competitive every season in the lower tier of payrolls. They are the envy of the league outside of NY and LA.
Baseball needs a salary cap. I'm sick of billionaire owners being praised for being cheap. Dealt with it in Baltimore for years, so many great talents move on because Bal didn't want to pay their talent. I know Elias is somewhat righting the ship, but our history is steeped with losing. We need a championship back here in charm city.
"The League's .511 Winning Percentage". Were there games where both teams won?!
Oh boy… this video….so many onesided view points… here is some balance…
First… “one of the best to average…” they were one of the best teams to start last season because of their elite pitching a strong offense. The offense has under preformed and the Rays endured injuries to every pitcher last year in their starting line up. This year they started off with no proven LH hitters due injury and their pitchers they are relying on were unproven or under performing lathe while waiting on their injured pitchers to come back. Yet again they offered contracts to free agents who opted to go elsewhere where.
Second. The Rays are not doing moneyball. You have outlined yourself. In ‘09 they came out the with the book called “the extra 2%, “ which is a different approach. It’s like comparing the Adkins Diet (popular in the turn of the century) to Keto diet. Yes, they both involve food, but they are different. The rays relate on roster manipulation meaning they they have treat a 26 man roster like 35. Also, the Rays have been doing this since 2006, it just became more recognized since 2008… or per your video… 2018.
Third- The rays trade players at their peak value and only if they get prime value that blows them away. They have shown tendency to hold on to players like Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, JP Howell, Grant Balfour, without getting anything back. Yes, they have learned from that. There have been only three nightmare trades where they traded a guy for nothing (see Nelson Cruz/ Joe Ryan, see Jake Ordorizzi, and See Cory Dickerson). Typically, they don’t want trade their guys but if a great deal comes across (because the Rays havent had a to 5 pick since 2017.
Fourth- the rays have been to the World Series twice during their extra 2% era. Not just 2020.
Fifth- Blake snell. Throughout the entirety of the ‘20 yet again struggled to get through the lineup a third time and was heavily guarded. Also, cash did the same thing to Charlie Morton in the ALCS. No one talks about Morton because the Rays won. Also, they played a more rested and comfortable dodgers team who hadn’t had to relocate states and go through COVID protocol when going from Cali to Texas. Why? The Dodgers had the slightly better record all the while struggling against .500 teams that year. Additionally, per the umpire auditor Twitter account, the dodgers benefitted from 46 bad calls where the rays benefitted from 24. Back to Snell. Had Anderson gotten then batters out, as he had … it’s a non issue. Anderson failed, the Dodgers won. Cash is the scapegoat for making the right call. Had he left Snell in and he got blown up, they would wonder why cash left Snell in even though he never did during the regular season or… even though he did not do that for Morton days prior. Remember Cash has won manager of the year for a reason.
Six- Snell was traded for four players. Morton opted to sign with Atlanta after the rays didn’t use their extension.
Seven- the rays have gone for top talent and have been finalists for top talent like Freddie Freeman. Often forgotten.
Eight- the expectations are always low. Almost every year the rays are locked low to last.
Nine- Snell won the Cy Young after struggling in San Diego.
Ten- Glasnow is often injured and he was moved on because of this. The Rays are not in last place, they are picking up.
Eleven- the process is not failing. The Rays prospects are coming around, started slow.
This video may not age well.
One-sided and low hanging fruit.
“Finally be coming to an end,” sounds a little bitter.
I would love to debate you if you want.
Small market teams have no choice😭 if they can’t implement a money ball strategy how are they expected to go after top FA’s and be competitive when teams like the Dodgers and Yankees can simply outbid everyone, this is exactly why the MLB needs to implement a salary cap and if small market teams continue to try and use money ball than that’s on them
Can’t say you’re wrong at all, I agree
Salary BASE is needed before a salary CAP. Allow the free market to pay the players what they want to be paid, but there should at least be minimum requirements in terms of overall spending between the pro teams as well as the minor league teams under their financial umbrella. We still have professional baseball players making less than minimum wage.
Players want to get paid it will never happen the real solution is the rays start spending
I don't think Chaim failed the Red Sox. He lacked certain creativity at the deadline but a look at the farm system, and it's miles better. Bendix has only been in charge for 8 months and while I don't get selling off in April, they had TJ wipe their whole rotation out. The Marlins becoming the Rays, might be a good thing as they haven't developed anyone in the last 8 years.
The Rays should be back to their old ways next year. They were due for a clunker season and it's when their CY Young caliber pitcher is down.
As a Rays fan we need to stop being cheap.
That would be step 1 to reviving the organization
They won't
we tried...but then gave the bag to a pedophile
It's honestly the fans fault why they continue to remain cheap they continue to field winning teams and fans don't show up
Y'all need a real ball park
You can't just say it cost them a world series. You can't hypothetically assume that snell would have done well
Pulling Blake Snell did not "cost the Rays the World Series" if they left him in they only had a 1-0 lead and Snell had not gone past the 7th the entire year. Even if he stayed in a pitched great hes likely to have given up a run. The Rays would also have been underdogs in game 7. Pulling him was the wrong decision but it's not nearly as bad as people claim it was.
I am one of very few real rays fans that actually care about the team. No one around the city of Saint Pete that I live in genuinely care about how they play or know anything about baseball. Watching this team from 2020 and the magic we had until gm 6, in 2021 and selling the easiest Alds of all time, to getting swept in back to back years in the wildcard, the 13-0 start to still get shit on in the postseason. Wander Franco. Everything that ever happens to the rays makes me suicidal.
The problem is largely in Stu's inability and unwillingness to try and connect with the city/area in any way during his time with the team. He's actually done so much to make even casual fans jaded throughout the years of his ownership (split city plan, threatening a move at least 3 different times, etc.) and isn't able to convert would-be fans. It doesn't help that over 2/3rds of "Floridians" weren't even born here and thousands of northerners move to the state every single day, mostly from NY/NE and would never consider dropping their prior team allegiances. It's certainly possible to do, look no further than Vinik and the Lightning to see what a good, community engaging owner can do to a city.
So... your whole premise of them being "ruined by moneyball" is actually that they've been ruined by injury. Got it. Also comparing Pepiot (maybe one combined MLB service year) to Glasnow based on one season is asinine. You can't say a trade failed -- especially with the Rays' strategy, based on one season.
How can you blame the Rays roster building strategy for the future face of their franchise facing prison time? How can you blame it for the injuries? They're only four ganes under .500 and 6 games back from a Wild Card spot at the time of this comment. It is also June, and there's a lot of baseball left. This is a ruined season? That's a bit of a drastic over-statement. This season has been an almost worst case scenario for the team, and they're still fielding a competitive roster. They're still in the hunt for the Wild Card. They still give teams a tough time. It's just baseball. What are you going to do? Every team goes through swings.
A .500 team despite giving up 50 more runs than it has scored.
Bendix hasn’t completed one season in Miami and you are already saying that his long term strategy won’t work? lol
I never said his long term strategy wont work.
But i’m saying in not even one season, the team went from playoffs, to being terrible
@@PurelyBaseballYT Sounds like the Red Sox.
Blaming their "moneyball" strategy seems silly when you can outline 3 major factors that are completely unrelated from that.
Pitchers will recover, their elite scouting team and pitching development will rebuild them, and Randy will figure it out, or not...
Peter Bendix has been the Marlins GM for half a year how has half a bad season "ruined" them?
I think you meant to out the Rays # in the description and not the Astros
While I do agree that being cheap has its downfalls, I can't exactly blame the Front Office for their lack of success to start 2024. Trading Glasnow seems like just good asset management given his horrible injury history. You could argue they could have kept Snell given how many years he had left on his deal, but he's very inconsistent. I don't think it was on anyone's cards for Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Harold Ramirez who were all very productive the last couple of seasons to fall off a complete cliff in offense production. And to top it off, how many teams just straight up lose the 'face of their franchise' in the middle of the season and probably won't play another game for them ever again'? Like imagine if the Mariners just lost Julio Rodriguez or the Orioles lost Gunnar Henderson from their roster for the rest of time. Like obviously that would hurt their teams significantly, right? I'd say the fact they are even .500 right now is a testament to their perseverance and that once they return to form/get players returning to injuries, they'll be a 'scary' team once again. Maybe not this season, but they'll be back next year for sure.
1. It is way to early to say they will miss the playoffs. 2. Wander Franco situtaion has nothing to do with Moneyball. 3. Players underperforming their normal years like Randy also have nothing to do with moeyball. 4. You don't mention how Glasnow missed alot of time with injuries. There does need to be a hybrid system where you keep a couple which i think was their plan before the Franco fiasco came to light.
1. I never said they will miss the playoffs. But I said a fact that they are 5th place in the division
2. Wander Franco as a player, has a lot to do with building from within- low budget Rays MoneyBall Strategy. The actual situation itself… obviously, it has nothing to do with BASEBALL
3. The team is built on homegrown talent, has quite a lot to do with Money-ball
4. I mention at 14:25 he has injury problems.
@@PurelyBaseballYT 17:17 you literally say they are going to miss the playoffs lol
@@gb69-38 my mistake! apologies
@@PurelyBaseballYT Why even say they're ruined if you think they might make the playoffs?
Wait for the first time in 5+ years they’re playing .500 baseball 80 games into a season and now they’re ruined? 😂 Tell me you don’t know ball without telling me
Not the case at all.
More so 95 different things have gone wrong at once. Players haven’t stepped up. New guys, AND the established core.
It's currently working in Milwaukee
So Oakland and Tampa Bay are competitive with no payroll and its historic and Cleveland does the same thing for longer and with as much success and no one acknowledges it
Aye, Cleveland VS Philly is my world series pick at this point.
That team’s rebuild has been VERY fun. It wont be my next upload, but hopefully in a few weeks they’ll get a video.
Longer lol?
He pulled Snell for a chance to use him in relief in Game 7
Um, how does the league have an average winning percentage of .511? Doesn't the league as a whole by definition have a .500 winning percentage? Every game someone wins, someone loses.
Imagine posting this and thinking you knew shit about baseball
In your video, It's a little unclear what is the difference between a Moneyball strategy and ownership being unwilling to spend. In Boston, for example, ownership was unwilling to pay market price for key players, so Bloom was backed into a corner and had to make trades without much leverage. An unwillingness to spend on premium talent will eventually ruin any time. You fail to mention that former Rays GM Friedman went to LA and is using a similar strategy as in Tampa, but WITH spending. Thus, they can sign players like Betts. Freeman, Ohtani, while also finding cheap talent through the farm (Buehler, Smith) and Moneyball-style trades and claims (Muncy, Phillips). Unlike in Florida and Boston where GMs were pressured to trade expensive stars, LA keeps them and pays them (usually)
Moneyball is a strategy to find value that is overlooked by the larger baseball marketplace, acquiring it at a cheap price, and getting more than your money's worth from it. It is more complex than being constrained financially. Beane used OBP, among other stats, to find unexpected value. Now that it's been 20 years and statistics has evolved, Moneyball will evolve too.
They also don’t play in Tampa
I wouldn’t say they’re ruined, and I don’t think their philosophy is the issue. Shane McClanahan getting injured and not having wander Franco anymore is a big aspect of why they’re struggling
Definitely a lot of negative things going on at once.. rough
LAD is actually rays system team.Moneyball is not a bad strategy.
6:24 I respect analytics, I love the concept and when your team is winning it feels like it really works, but I think the problem is managers/HCs/etc feel like they can either trust analytics or their gut but not both. I think it’s only a matter of time before they merge both though. The ability to recognize when to follow the analytics but also knowing when your pitcher just has “it” that day can win a lot more games than just one or the other
The problem with your strategy is that on average, the analytical decision will be the better one. A "gut" can also be wrong and will be wrong more often than an analytical decision in the long run.
@@eliotjurgensen1421 fair point
High sell low buy is a very good strategy in business.
Saying it’s ruined them is jumping the gun in my opinion, considering they’ve been having a bad season. If you dig deeper, this mediocre season should’ve been expected considering all but one of their opening day starters from last year are out long term.
shouldn’t the leagues average be .500 because every time a team wins the other loses
I mean in reality what can the rays really do? They are not going to compete with big market teams like the dodgers and Yankees in a traditional way. They are kinda forced to do this. Also, their fanbase is one of the worst in all of sports. They are good every year and their fans dont show up. Then cry when they can't afford to sign big contracts.
Moneyball is useful for turning a team in a bad situation around but I think that executives successful at it overestimate their ability to pick which prospects from other teams are going to develop, It's one thing to develop Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, and Jason Giambi at the same time, but to think you can just ditch all those guys before they require multi-million dollar contracts b/c you'll find their direct replacements, and then be able to do that a third time is arrogance.
When you have a good core you have to take the risk and invest in it, especially when you're getting close to post-season success. Yes some of those guys will fall off a cliff and you will eat bad contracts and lose value from them, but I don't think fans are ever as upset at teams that tried to go all-in and failed as they are at teams that folded and walked away from the table when success was at hand.
I also don't really buy the idea that the A's and Rays can't afford to spend the money b/c they're in a small market. Are the A's suddenly gonna spend on free agents in Vegas or the Rays spend money in Nashville or Charlotte? I doubt it. They're in it for mediocre payrolls and revenue sharing money. Success is incidental to their business plans.
RAYS DOWNFALL 😩🙏🏻
So much wrong with this video. A's moneyball was more than "gets on base and cheap" it was simply finding out what was undervalued and exploiting that. Everybody knows getting on base is super important now, and that costs money, so moneyball can't be about that. The winning formula for the Rays has been their ability to make pitchers better. The other thing the Rays have done better than almost anybody is developing prospects, aided by frequently trading guys at the peak of their value for more prospects. The Rays have fallen off, not because they have forgotten how to do this, but because they have so many injuries.
How could the league have a .511 winning percentage? In aggregate, it has to have a .500 winning percentage. Others there's games being played with a winner and no loser.
Wait. He just said rays have a .600 win% when the rest of the league has .511. If every team is playing each other the highest win% would be .500 but if you take out the rays wouldn’t it be lower? Also rays win% the last 3 years (not including 2024) is only .586
Such a strange framing of what happened lmao
Okay, I have a dumb question; how is it possible that the rest of the league have a .511 winning percentage? Wouldn't it be .500?? One game has one winner and one loses. I'll try not to lose sleep lol.
Very well put together video but an overreaction. It’s injuries and Franco, that’s the whole story. The bats have fallen asleep this year sure, but the Rays will find a way to win atleast 80 something and possibly sneak into a wildcard spot.
the rays don't do "moneyball", looking for undervalued, cheaper talent is just basic talent acquisition strategy in baseball at this point. Analytics just means information and data analysis. The stuff smart teams are doing now relates more to adjustments to swing path, release points and biomechanical shit. It's more than just "this guy has good OBP and other teams don't value that".
If you want to actually talk about why they're bad this year, maybe talk about how their generational shortstop prospect turned out to be a pedo and their entire rotation got TJ. Some of their players are underperforming but when you lose an MVP and like 2-3 top starters, you're going to struggle, especially in a mega talented division like the AL East.
Two months out of one season hardly means the strategy is failing
Thinking about it, if wander franco was not a p3do, the rays may have been turned into THE American league team to beat in the next year or two. Considering they have carson Williams, junior caminero, curtis mead, and franco at the big league level (est. 1-2 yrs). I believe that would've been a fantastic infield. And their pitching staff coming off of injury in the next year, man this team would've been phenomenal. A rotation of mclannahan, rasumussen, bradley, baz, pepiot, efflin, and other pieces would've been extravagant. Especially with the veteranship of yandy diaz. It's tough to see such a bright future crash and burn like this.
Only reason I knew palacios and kittdrege is because I’m a cardinals fan
Depends how the young guys develop. They have the prospects
What an extraordinary waste of time. They lost a net 10 or so WAR due to trades/FA and a few more WAR due to injury, so they're .500 and not .600. Shocker.
.511 average winning percentage? Shouldn't the average be exactly .500? For every win a team gets, there has to be a losing team.
1:27 lol how can the league wide winning % be anything other than .500?