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Here's the exact logic for the boosted 9 chances. The Golden Rule: Time has to be enabled and it must be the last 5 seconds of the match. 1. If Stamina is enabled: a. If the opponent has more than 1 stock left, use the rules for Stock only matches. b. If the opponent and Game and Watch only have 1 stock left, compare HP remaining. If Game and Watch's HP remaining, multiplied by 2, is less than or equal to the opponent's, use the boosted 9 chance. 2. If Stocks are enabled but NOT Stamina: Take Game and Watch's stock count and multiply it by 2. If that is less than OR equal to the opponent's stock count, use the boosted 9 chance. 3. If ONLY TIME is enabled: Takes the difference between stocks taken and self-destructs for both Game and Watch and the opponent. a. If this value IS 0 for Game and Watch, and is GREATER THAN 0 for the opponent, use the boosted chances. b. If the value for Game and Watch is GREATER THAN 0, multiply it by 2. If it is LESS THAN 0, multiply it by 0.5x. Compare the result to the opponent's difference - if Game and Watch's is LESS or EQUAL, use the boosted 9 chance. You found the rules for 2 in the video, but the boosted 9 chance for the other rule types were unexplored, so I figured I put them here. Also, the only rule for not being able to pull a 7 (the apples) is that once you pull it, you can't pull it again for another 150 frames. This *does* inadvertently mean that once you pull a 7, your chances of pulling a 9 within the next 150 frames are 1/7, not 1/8.
I had gone into this assuming the rules for the other game modes were more similar, but this actually sounds surprisingly diverse. I guess I'll have to make a followup in some way soon!
Literally the only case it could come in clutch is a 1 to 2 stock scenario, where at least getting a KO with it could lead to a sudden death, but it's just so insanely niche LOL
this is so random and dumb it reminds me of the shroom glitch in mario kart wii where for the 16th, 18th and every other box that you break after that during the same race you will always get a single mushroom no matter what place you are in. its a hard coded thing and no one knows why it was put there
So game & watch as a mechanic to help him make a comback when the timer's running out, but only if he's losing by so much that it wouldn't help him anyway
It's funny how much goes into "Judge Comeback" when it could only ever possibly help if G&W is at 0% and 1 stock and the enemy was at 2 stocks so you can kill them to extend the match to a sudden death.
Friendly tip, next time you do this kind of thing just hold the stick down to the side to jump off until you are at the right stock #. Love the video, I’m a sucker for random smash fact stuff so this is a fun thing for me!
15:48 My theory for why this happens is that the special faces are actually flat objects and the weird look of them is a shading artifact because the metal shader doesn't know what to do with flat n-gons (faces with more than 4 vertexes). It doesn't happen on the normal model because it's rounded and made with good topology. You can easily recreate this issue in Blender by cutting a plane into a similar shape and then enabling smooth shading
Wait...so the odds are 50% at a 50% difference, about 60 at a difference of 1-3, and almost 100% but not quite at a difference of 98? What I'm getting from this is that the odds are exactly the same as the difference.
This could be true only if we confirm the 98 percent thing at a stock difference of 98. But atm I don't have enough data to really make that claim, plus most of the 50% stock difference tests were closer to 60% odds anyways so I'm not convinced atm
So in otherwords the G&W judgment buff in the last 5 seconds is useless competitively... if youre down stocks you still are gonna lose even if you kill with that last 9...
the thing about his fsmash reminds me of how his dsmash sweetspot on aerial opponents has no particles because the name for the particle type is _misspelled_ in the code. wonder if it's the same deal for this. man... is game & watch doomed to always be rushed as hell?
the sound effect issue is actually a problem in the file that contains hitbox data, where the sound effect entry for that specific hitbox has a typo and so doesn't play anything. this wasn't updated since release
8:00 Heyo! Guy who just passed his stats course here! Since the data values are so small it actually fails the check (npq is greater than or equal to 10 where n is the number of trials, p is the probability, and q is 1-p), implying that you keep the null hypothesis, the statement of no chance. So there is NOT a statistical significance because of the lack of data.
My guess is that the boosted 9 chance logic is based not actually 50% but rather Game and Watch stocks divided by opponent stocks or something to that effect which would explain why it's almost guaranteed at a 1/100 stock ratio. I doubt they coded in a specific check for some absurd stock difference with a much higher 9 rate.
I really like seeing the inner workings of the super niche and in-depth mechanics of the game. Smash Bros is by far the most complicated fighting game I've ever played, and I never get old of the tiny details of this game
You can also use Spirits that lower the character's weight such as Lightweight and Ninja style. With a Weight down trait primary spirit, with Ninja style and 3 Lightweight support spirits, you can become the lightest character and get send flying further by Greninja's down taunt windboxes. Also Rage increases the Knockback Greninja deals with down taunt. I don't about the mechanics with Mr. Game & Watch's judge on a Stamina match, perhaps it's the same formula as stock battles?
Game and watch is a 1/7. You can't get the last two rolls in a row, not just the last one. The default startup for "last two numbers" at the start of a stock is 1, 2.
That was the rule in Melee and Brawl. Smash 4 removed this restriction and allowed duplicates. Then Ultimate added back the restriction but only for the one last number, however all 9 numbers seem to be possible as the first roll.
The reason G&W's fsmash sourspot has no sound is due to a typo in the code, causing it to just not work. It's just supposed to make a regular hit sound, like Mario's fsmash.
if you used an emulator, you could use save states to perform tests back to back for more data. you could get to the 5 second count down, make a save state, and replay that section over and over again. you could do the 99 stock test without wasting your time SD'ing 98 times first.
Its nice that the 9 chance only increases if GW is down multiple stocks, will create hype moments without giving GW a chance to win an impossible comeback
I wonder if Pac-Man's hydrant can do something similar to Greninja's taunt. Multiple times, I've had hydrant push Kirby off ledge while he was doing up B, and Kirby went into freefall
okay statistics first all of those tests below like ~27-30 samples wouldnt be enough data to say anything confidently but since its always is ~61.1% vs ~11.1% is good enough just to eyeball it😊 if you wanted to fuss with more or less 1/9~1/8 to get better estimation would need hundreds and isnt a good use of time
What makes me curious now is if this comeback mechanic is enough to allow G&W to actually win. A more than half deficit seems very hard to come back from, especially with low time left.
it's less than OR EQUAL to his stock times 2, so if it's 1 stock to 2 it is enough to tie the game by quickplay rules in any case to force sudden death. But under competitive rules, where percentage is used as the tiebreak, you are correct, it isn't enough for him to actually win
I’m curious what the trigger is for the Judge 9-boost-switch to active is in other conditions. For instance, Smash with more than 2 players? How about a time battle with no stocks? Or what about a stamina battle?
My guess on the greninja thing not working on chrom is because of the change that made Chrom speed up as he falls with his up b. From what I remember, they did that because of his up b cheese in early ultimate.
Isn't game&watch's thing 1/7? Or was that for a previous game? I remember watching an in-depth video about how it can't reroll the last 2 numbers. Like you roll 1, then 2, your new options are 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and then you roll an 8 then your new previous rolls become 2 and 8, so now your options are 1,3,4,5,6,7,9. Maybe that was for brawl or melee though?
I've once had a match with 2 other people where the Game & Watch got 10/32 odds on nines (ignoring all the times where Judge was cancelled or where it wasn't possible). Maybe it was just a statistical anomaly, but maybe there is actually more to it with 3 or more people
with the requirements to have boosted 9's, I wonder why they bothered adding the mechanic in the first place. the only situation in which this helps is if g&w is on 1 stock 0% and the opponent is 2 stocks, so killing them would make it a tie, resulting in sudden death.
5:30 I think what might be happening is that the game accidentally is recognizing you as being tied with Mario. Since you both have 1 stock. I had many Sudden Death matches because I had the same amount of stocks as my opponents. Even if I had more damage, more points, etc., it would still put me into a Sudden Death. (I can’t read code btw) 6:14 Yup. But judging through the rest of this segment, it only applies if Game & Watch is on his last stock and the opponent is above that. Maybe a way to get you to Sudden Death, but not have an easy unfair win? This could’ve been done for balancing reasons maybe. 8:10 Hmmm. My initial theory might still be true. But it is weird to increase the odds when it wouldn’t affect anything. Like Mario is still going to win. So maybe it’s an oversight? Probably, I’m not gonna question code I can’t even read, lol.
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@@deandage2703yeah terrible company
@@ADudeWithAChannel
Ah yes getting a 9 is a 50 percent chance 25% of the time
Here before this comment blows up
(upon closer inspection it would actually be 50% odds 50% of the time though)
I don't know man, feels more like a 100% chance 30% of the time for me
If it’s not 100 percent accurate it’s 50 percent accurate
Genius
@zachpro5475 mandjtv fan?
Did you know 90% of Mr. Game & Watches quit before they hit a nine?
Best comment ive ever read 🤣
@@goombaguy04955 sec
@@goombaguy049 I am so happy to be the random asshole with a Fire Emblem profile picture to be the creator of the best comment you've ever read
@@migmalucogachatm5618 Your channel made me feel like I traveled back to 2018
"Keep side b-ing"
So technically, G&W has a comeback mechanic
Omg he's the original dlc character
GW gonna be 4.99$ in smash 6 😮 @@Gillardo
Ah, so that's why he is top tier!
Don't call it a comeback mechanic. It's been here for years.
@@mettatonex7221do you know what a joke is
Here's the exact logic for the boosted 9 chances.
The Golden Rule: Time has to be enabled and it must be the last 5 seconds of the match.
1. If Stamina is enabled:
a. If the opponent has more than 1 stock left, use the rules for Stock only matches.
b. If the opponent and Game and Watch only have 1 stock left, compare HP remaining. If Game and Watch's HP remaining, multiplied by 2, is less than or equal to the opponent's, use the boosted 9 chance.
2. If Stocks are enabled but NOT Stamina:
Take Game and Watch's stock count and multiply it by 2. If that is less than OR equal to the opponent's stock count, use the boosted 9 chance.
3. If ONLY TIME is enabled:
Takes the difference between stocks taken and self-destructs for both Game and Watch and the opponent.
a. If this value IS 0 for Game and Watch, and is GREATER THAN 0 for the opponent, use the boosted chances.
b. If the value for Game and Watch is GREATER THAN 0, multiply it by 2. If it is LESS THAN 0, multiply it by 0.5x. Compare the result to the opponent's difference - if Game and Watch's is LESS or EQUAL, use the boosted 9 chance.
You found the rules for 2 in the video, but the boosted 9 chance for the other rule types were unexplored, so I figured I put them here.
Also, the only rule for not being able to pull a 7 (the apples) is that once you pull it, you can't pull it again for another 150 frames. This *does* inadvertently mean that once you pull a 7, your chances of pulling a 9 within the next 150 frames are 1/7, not 1/8.
I like your funny words magic man
I had gone into this assuming the rules for the other game modes were more similar, but this actually sounds surprisingly diverse. I guess I'll have to make a followup in some way soon!
God i love code@@Casual_PKBeats
do you mean less than or equal to? in the video the boosted odds were activated at gnw's 5 stocks vs mario's 10, and 5×2 is not less than 10.
I think he meant less than or equal in that instance
"Let's go gambling!"
"I can't stop winning!"
Why would getting a 9 in the last 5 seconds even matter if you're multiple stocks behind? This is such an absurd mechanic to put dev time into lmao
Literally the only case it could come in clutch is a 1 to 2 stock scenario, where at least getting a KO with it could lead to a sudden death, but it's just so insanely niche LOL
Make the loser feel better because they at least got something cool in the last few seconds?
@@Casual_PKBeats but only if you are at 0% damage(at least under competitive rules)
It's so that in your desperation you get a slight glimpse of hope before it's taken away when you remember you're a stock behind
because funny
That combo with Incineroar at the very start was positively incomprehensible. Marvelous work.
this is so random and dumb it reminds me of the shroom glitch in mario kart wii where for the 16th, 18th and every other box that you break after that during the same race you will always get a single mushroom no matter what place you are in. its a hard coded thing and no one knows why it was put there
14:03 You can actually do that by having G&W be slowed down by the Timer. Not by changing the speed in Training though, only the Timer.
So I guess C# was wrong because in the clip they both had the same amount of stocks just a damage difference, so the 50% buff didn't activate.
7:23 AINT NO WAY BRO
In all seriousness tho great vid, amazing research.
Next video will be like "Secret Tech to get an 11 as Game and Watch".
It feels like one of those things that's impossible to not notice
So game & watch as a mechanic to help him make a comback when the timer's running out, but only if he's losing by so much that it wouldn't help him anyway
if its 1 stock to 2 it activates, but otherwise you are correct
I love the dedication to the bit of ending every G&W clip with a 9, even in a G&W video lol
1:28 This is the most cursed combo I’ve ever seen and I love it.
LEST GO GAMBLING!
OH DANG IT!
Chk chk chk… CRRRR! Aw dang it!
1:27 They let him cook, and that right there is a meal fit for a king!
died 2014, born 2024
welcome back game & watch side special custom move 2
I did not expect to see myself in this video, let alone as the opening fact lol
7:20 woah woah woah
You ending every G&W clip with a perfectly cut 9 gets me every time
For some reason it was intended that GaWs sourspot fsmash does not play a sounds
sfxtype: collision_sound_attr_none for Hitbox 0
1:28 That setup had no reason to go THAT hard!
Coolest setup I have ever seen!
My favorite part of your game and watch clip is how they always end in silence followed by a somehow unexpected 9. Keep it up.
7:23 NAHH THERES NO WAY YOU JUST SAID THAT LMAO
WHY IS BOUNCY BLOCK HERE
4:45 The number after a nine can't be a 9. Where me money?
The G&W mouth looking like Snoopy was way funnier to me than it had any reason to be
It's funny how much goes into "Judge Comeback" when it could only ever possibly help if G&W is at 0% and 1 stock and the enemy was at 2 stocks so you can kill them to extend the match to a sudden death.
4:50 you can't get a 9 right after another 9, now give me the money and go bankrupt
11:59 oil up
4:48 because what you just said that you can't get the same number twice? Or is that just too simple of a answer
7:39 it physically hurt me
Insane cooking, mad respect, had to like the video immediately
15:15 *me after jorking it silly.*
😂
Those combos in the first section of the video are increadible.
1:40 are you human?
I for one would like to see a full length investigation of game and watch judge odds!
Friendly tip, next time you do this kind of thing just hold the stick down to the side to jump off until you are at the right stock #. Love the video, I’m a sucker for random smash fact stuff so this is a fun thing for me!
Let’s go gambling!
Ah dang it! 🗣️‼️
I barely understood anything, but it involved the silly beep boop guy, so I like👍🏼
i imagine 7:39 is for pulling comments, smart move.
15:48 My theory for why this happens is that the special faces are actually flat objects and the weird look of them is a shading artifact because the metal shader doesn't know what to do with flat n-gons (faces with more than 4 vertexes). It doesn't happen on the normal model because it's rounded and made with good topology. You can easily recreate this issue in Blender by cutting a plane into a similar shape and then enabling smooth shading
A 9/11 joke in a smash explanation video was the last thing I expected to hear 😂😂😂
7:38 Dont ever say that again
I thought you meant the thing 10 seconds earlier and had made a typo...💀
Herm what the shigma is a new variation. This must be studied
Wait...so the odds are 50% at a 50% difference, about 60 at a difference of 1-3, and almost 100% but not quite at a difference of 98? What I'm getting from this is that the odds are exactly the same as the difference.
Barring of course the fact that it's always off below 50.
This could be true only if we confirm the 98 percent thing at a stock difference of 98. But atm I don't have enough data to really make that claim, plus most of the 50% stock difference tests were closer to 60% odds anyways so I'm not convinced atm
1:20 I can't believe they gave incineroar Flying Press
7:39 i’m dying now WHY
15:04 me jjorking my peamnus :)))))
So in otherwords the G&W judgment buff in the last 5 seconds is useless competitively... if youre down stocks you still are gonna lose even if you kill with that last 9...
15:11 She gamed on my watch till I BEEP
the thing about his fsmash reminds me of how his dsmash sweetspot on aerial opponents has no particles because the name for the particle type is _misspelled_ in the code. wonder if it's the same deal for this.
man... is game & watch doomed to always be rushed as hell?
the sound effect issue is actually a problem in the file that contains hitbox data, where the sound effect entry for that specific hitbox has a typo and so doesn't play anything. this wasn't updated since release
As a gw main, this is your best video ever
You got HOW many out of 11?
As someone who's favorite smash character is Mr. Game & Watch, this is definitely your best video yet!
8:00
Heyo! Guy who just passed his stats course here! Since the data values are so small it actually fails the check (npq is greater than or equal to 10 where n is the number of trials, p is the probability, and q is 1-p), implying that you keep the null hypothesis, the statement of no chance. So there is NOT a statistical significance because of the lack of data.
13:50
"They're all part of Pi?"
I mean... I'm not *wrong* per se, but he does have a much simpler answer for me lmao
I love the way you made the cuts after getting a 9
My guess is that the boosted 9 chance logic is based not actually 50% but rather Game and Watch stocks divided by opponent stocks or something to that effect which would explain why it's almost guaranteed at a 1/100 stock ratio. I doubt they coded in a specific check for some absurd stock difference with a much higher 9 rate.
I really like seeing the inner workings of the super niche and in-depth mechanics of the game. Smash Bros is by far the most complicated fighting game I've ever played, and I never get old of the tiny details of this game
I LOVE [Game & Watch] I LOVE [Game & Watch]
You can also use Spirits that lower the character's weight such as Lightweight and Ninja style.
With a Weight down trait primary spirit, with Ninja style and 3 Lightweight support spirits, you can become the lightest character and get send flying further by Greninja's down taunt windboxes. Also Rage increases the Knockback Greninja deals with down taunt.
I don't about the mechanics with Mr. Game & Watch's judge on a Stamina match, perhaps it's the same formula as stock battles?
if you ever go back to the 1 vs 99 stocks thing to collect more data, you could turn on the setting that makes an SD cost two stocks
Game and watch is a 1/7. You can't get the last two rolls in a row, not just the last one.
The default startup for "last two numbers" at the start of a stock is 1, 2.
That was the rule in Melee and Brawl. Smash 4 removed this restriction and allowed duplicates. Then Ultimate added back the restriction but only for the one last number, however all 9 numbers seem to be possible as the first roll.
The reason G&W's fsmash sourspot has no sound is due to a typo in the code, causing it to just not work. It's just supposed to make a regular hit sound, like Mario's fsmash.
Thank you for testing this myth and sharing your results. You are awesome
4:47 woah there Mr Beast-
Mr. Game and Watch's Judge mechanic was much deeper than I thought....😮
The torch sound effect not playing makes sense since you arent being hit by the fire
if you used an emulator, you could use save states to perform tests back to back for more data. you could get to the 5 second count down, make a save state, and replay that section over and over again.
you could do the 99 stock test without wasting your time SD'ing 98 times first.
Its nice that the 9 chance only increases if GW is down multiple stocks, will create hype moments without giving GW a chance to win an impossible comeback
I assume the reason Mr. G&W's other forms have weird metal textures is because they don't have very well put together normal maps like his normal form
im glad game and watch basically got his own video :)
i love the cutaways when he gets a nine
I wonder if Pac-Man's hydrant can do something similar to Greninja's taunt. Multiple times, I've had hydrant push Kirby off ledge while he was doing up B, and Kirby went into freefall
Getting a 9 has some weird odds but I know for sure that it has 10l% odds if it’s the end if a PKbeats clip
okay statistics first all of those tests below like ~27-30 samples wouldnt be enough data to say anything confidently but since its always is ~61.1% vs ~11.1% is good enough just to eyeball it😊
if you wanted to fuss with more or less 1/9~1/8 to get better estimation would need hundreds and isnt a good use of time
(7:36) NOOOO THE BRAINROT GOT TO PKBEATS NOOOOOO
Still finding new things abt this game is kinda insane
just wanna appreciate how many random clips just end with gnw getting a 9
I didn't know Game & Watch was a DLC fighter
13:40 the only pattern is that each 5 mirrors the other
7:39 Aigh, I'mma kms
What makes me curious now is if this comeback mechanic is enough to allow G&W to actually win. A more than half deficit seems very hard to come back from, especially with low time left.
it's less than OR EQUAL to his stock times 2, so if it's 1 stock to 2 it is enough to tie the game by quickplay rules in any case to force sudden death. But under competitive rules, where percentage is used as the tiebreak, you are correct, it isn't enough for him to actually win
I’m curious what the trigger is for the Judge 9-boost-switch to active is in other conditions. For instance, Smash with more than 2 players? How about a time battle with no stocks? Or what about a stamina battle?
7:23 I SEE WHAT YOU DID THERE
As a Mr. G&W main, thank you for this video
Okay 1:28 is actually mad
My guess on the greninja thing not working on chrom is because of the change that made Chrom speed up as he falls with his up b.
From what I remember, they did that because of his up b cheese in early ultimate.
Isn't game&watch's thing 1/7? Or was that for a previous game? I remember watching an in-depth video about how it can't reroll the last 2 numbers. Like you roll 1, then 2, your new options are 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and then you roll an 8 then your new previous rolls become 2 and 8, so now your options are 1,3,4,5,6,7,9. Maybe that was for brawl or melee though?
My bad, it's for melee and brawl only.
LETS GO JUDGING
7:22 ... nice "slip-up."
as an OSRS player I know all odds are in fact a 50/50 chance, it either happens or it doesn't
I've once had a match with 2 other people where the Game & Watch got 10/32 odds on nines (ignoring all the times where Judge was cancelled or where it wasn't possible). Maybe it was just a statistical anomaly, but maybe there is actually more to it with 3 or more people
2:54 I think 3 is like a shield breaker
i was gonna say i enjoy the slight meme usage but then he said what the sigma outa nowhere n i wanted to cry
THE HIDDEN MOUTH WAS SHOWN LET’S GOOOOOOO
This is a great video!!! Hella good :]
Prinny Knife :) Dood
with the requirements to have boosted 9's, I wonder why they bothered adding the mechanic in the first place. the only situation in which this helps is if g&w is on 1 stock 0% and the opponent is 2 stocks, so killing them would make it a tie, resulting in sudden death.
2 pk beats vids in 1 month Lets goooo
5:30
I think what might be happening is that the game accidentally is recognizing you as being tied with Mario. Since you both have 1 stock. I had many Sudden Death matches because I had the same amount of stocks as my opponents. Even if I had more damage, more points, etc., it would still put me into a Sudden Death.
(I can’t read code btw)
6:14
Yup. But judging through the rest of this segment, it only applies if Game & Watch is on his last stock and the opponent is above that.
Maybe a way to get you to Sudden Death, but not have an easy unfair win?
This could’ve been done for balancing reasons maybe.
8:10
Hmmm. My initial theory might still be true. But it is weird to increase the odds when it wouldn’t affect anything. Like Mario is still going to win. So maybe it’s an oversight? Probably, I’m not gonna question code I can’t even read, lol.