fun fact: if you considered every time you wash that car as an "pokemon encounter", the odds of you getting a shiny car every single time for 10000+ times is equal to 1 in almost 82 MILLION and counting. nice
@@hellothisisme2010 You actually multiply by 8000 for every single consecutive shiny encounter, so the chance of getting 10000 shinies in a row is 1 in 10^39000. That's 1 with 39000 ZEROS!
I think the real concern is what condition your car is in. I'm not a car guy but after 10000 washes I imagine it starts to look like an alternative model lol
I have a PhD in probability, and I can say this is a really good probability video. Especially the part that nobody understands probability (which is 100% true). Good work!
Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...just after this i know im close...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...just after this i know im close...
Hey, shinyhunter who studied maths here! Thanks for your very cool and educative video ! However, I think you made things a bit more complicated that it needed to be. Let's take for example the probability p(n
Hey, cool calculations. You mention that your average hunt is pretty close to the 5678 that you mention. I'm curious; do you mean your mean average or median average? Based on how you got that number, we should expect 5678 to be the median average length of a shiny hunt, whereas 8192 should still be the expected value/mean average length of a hunt. If around 5678 happens to be your mean average, that would mean you've been overall quite lucky!
I’m such a nerd I knew exactly which probability distribution he was talking about the moment I saw it - after all, Bernoulli tests are also used in calculating odds for tabletop RPG dice …🤓 EDIT: I paused the video at 14:38 after confirming that indeed he was talking about the Bernoull test, and the context is that I used it to prove that a certain RPG dice site can't possibly be true-random in how the rolls get distributed to the clients (actually, it was an inverse Bernoulli trial, which is useful when you want to know how likely it is to have something happen repeatedly), even if the dice are true-random when the server generates them, because it would be rather unlikely even if everyone on the planet were to roll dice every second for an entire century for someone to see a specific combination of rolls that actually happened in some games I played on that site. This test works because it relies on things happening over time, rather than one single event, so it's the probability that all these things happen together that's important...anyway
@@NathanSimonGottemer well, that one doesn't require you to be a nerd. Anyone who's so much as smelled a probability or statistics lesson would know it's Bernoulli distribution.
Candyevie made a video where she got a shiny wooper in 68851 encounters and she thought she was the unluckiest shiny hunter ever but it turned out "ShinyCollector" got a ralts in 69498. Bit fascinating that both these runs and the one in the video are so close to each other.
the cool thing about these numbers is that approaching 70000 encounters, the cumulative probability of getting a shiny is around 99.999%. so you'd actually expect that the famously unlucky shiny hunts would be somewhere around this number. and actually, it's not that rare. this is happening to 1 in every 100,000 shiny hunts. considering the number of shiny hunters and shiny hunts going on, this has to have happened a fair number of times. having a shiny hunt go above 80000 though, that's 1 in a million hunts.
Wouldn't CandyEvie still be the most unlucky? Considering in most games and situations, Wooper is a semi common to common encounter in it's habitats. And Ralts is almost always a rare once. Without doing the math I would think that the Ralts is still significantly more lucky.
Very thankful that I've yet to experience listening to Route 216 without feeling happy - hoping to have more outlier shiny hunts than see that happen!!!! GREAT breakdown of all the probability of shiny hunting and much needed with all the silly discourse going around right now
Omg thank you!!!! This video would truly not have been the same without your swinub clip. I cannot thank you enough for allowing me to use it! I hope I did some justice to this part of the Pokémon community that you love so much!!
yeah that’s what I wanna know!! I’m in the middle of a big hunt and I’m worried about getting dragged through the mud once my channel jirachi finally shines
i did this before too. shiny latios, then shiny virizion in alpha sapphire. unfortunately, because i had gone into that virizion battle blind (i just wanted to see what sword of justice was available to me on the island that day), i totally wasn't prepared to catch it. i couldn't put it to sleep (grass types are immune to spore), and it kept on healing out of 1 HP with giga drain. it killed itself with struggle. RIP, bubble-gum pink virizion :(
the best compliment I can give this video is I started it off shiny hunting to watch in the background (as I do 99% of videos + over odds 3 segement dudunsparce hunt is breaking me) and I found myself frequently stopping hunting just to watch the full video. about 15 minutes in I realized I hadn't done more than like 2 minutes of hunting put my switch down and watched the whole thing. Super super super interesting stuff and engaging as hell. Awesome vid!!
1:11 This is because human brains use logarithms a lot! We naturally batch "attempts 1-10", "attempts 11-100", and "attempts 101-1000" together, which leads to a "more likely the longer you look" heuristic that works with practical causal deduction ("it's learned how to hide from me" or "we've fished this hole barren") a lot more easily than "raw" probability evaluation.
Great video as always and a pleasant surprise cameo by jimmypoopins of all people! In terms of crazy shiny hunting odds, there’s a bot run by a youtube channel named 40 Cakes that is attempting a shiny Professor Oak Challenge in Emerald. It’s been “stuck” before even getting the first badge due to Seedot being a 1% encounter! It managed to get one in 2023 and has been on the hunt for another one for almost a full year this coming August.
I love this video so much. I love occasionally checking my shiny odds and putting them in the calculation to find out how unlucky or lucky I was. It makes shiny hunting much more fun if you ask me.
“What if I asked you about the odds of finding a shiny within 2500 encounters” For the love of god don’t bring me back to statistics, I lost part of my soul in that textbook
For the incredibly lucky shinies, Chuggaaconroy's Pokemon Crystal run comes to mind. He was looking to add a Koffing to his team, just because that's what he wanted to have. So he steps into the Burned Tower in Ecruteak. IIRC he has a few encounters with Gastly and Zubat that he cuts out before it shows him encountering the Koffing. He starts talking about how it's what he wants to add to his team and... it's Shiny. Yes, it's not a Shiny HUNT, but the fact that the very first encounter of a Pokemon he wanted anyways happened to be shiny...
I wanted to leave a personal story since it's probably the best luck I've seen in person. Me and my partner are currently replaying sun and moon. She likes Salamence, so we we're gunning for the 1% Salamence SOS encounter on route 3. She ran into about 6 or so Bagon at 1%, and while we weren't keeping track, I think that's about 600 encounters on average. I kid you not, she found 2 shiny Spearow while trying to find Bagon. With Spearow's encounter rate of 49% she probably encountered just under 300. I still can't believe it but now she's got a shiny Spearow and Fearow. It was on the same day too. She had found the first while I was at work just after lunch. And then the second one appeared about an hour or two after I got home. It wasn't a dedicated hunt but I still find it absolutely fascinating. I don't really have the know-how to calculate the odds either so I thought I'd leave this here for a more savvy individual to work out. I know it's the 1 in 4000 base odds, but 2 so close together feels very unlikely.
That's so wild, on my 2nd playthrough of Moon I also found a Shiny Spearow on Route 2, basically right at the beginning of the game. Guess Spearows like being Shiny in Alola!
Also, to answer your question on what the odds would be, since the question is "what are the odds of finding 2 shiny Spearow in 600 encounters" (As the Spearows were secondary to the object of finding a Bagon) we can use the Binomial Distribution here (600_C_2) * (1/4096)^2 * (4095/4096)^598 ~= 0.00926, or 0.926% So, it's roughly a 1 in 108 chance to find 2 shinies in 600 encounters from Generation 6 onward. From here, we can just multiply by 0.49^2 (The chance they're both Spearows) to get about 0.0222%. It ends up being around 1 in 450 total. (Edited because I first used the 300 Spearows encountered, not the 600 total encounters like I should have. Reading comprehension is just as important as math, stay in school kids!)
@@ppstorm_ ppl like you that go r/thathappened at every single lucky thing that happens in life have really got to understand that 1. life is weirder than you think and with 8 billion ppl on the planet weird things will happen all the time 2. shiny pokemon aren't that rare in the grand scheme of things so it's really not high stakes or prestigious enough for anyone to lie about it
To think there is a chance of someone out there never getting a shiny pokemon no matter how hard they try is hilarious They will spend their whole life thinking it's a myth while they keep rolling the unluckiest odds imaginable
One thing I like to think about in regards to shiny starters is how many people bought the game new, then got a shiny starter on their first try. Its easy to break down really; just take units sold divided by the games shiny odds and there you are. It gives an average anyway, as it doesnt take into account copies of the game that were sold and never played of course, but Its interesting food for thought. On a slightly different note, Emeralds "shiny frames" are always the same for a particular save file once created, even once the game is switched off and back on as it always has the same seed. Ruby ands Sapphire behave the same, but only when the battery is dry.
While Dallas did get exceptionally unlucky, here’s some other clips that are even unluckier than that: Poor majesticpale spent 84k hunting for a golduck in Pokemon silver: th-cam.com/video/KX0XRp3yGjA/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared Nightshade having an 80k phase for a shandshrew: th-cam.com/video/630Hiv4_4m0/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared Rockrufflepuff going 75k for a shiny mewtwo in hgss: th-cam.com/video/xiYmdbaBrXQ/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=share Noopy going over 70k here: th-cam.com/video/sH-cCZNe3CE/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared While not as bad, beatingbros went 67k for a shiny dialga (MASSIVE headphone warning) th-cam.com/video/73RBXLQeYX8/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared Cabbage spent 78k hunting for a quagsire (and went 60k on a hunt not too long before this… poor guy) th-cam.com/video/sktV41B5tiQ/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared The final hunt I remember was someone going over 100k for a shiny starter in HGSS, but I can’t find the link for the life of me. I have seen this video, though, and if I find it again I will edit the comment with it. On the contrary, here is quite literally the luckiest you can be, with detectivemocha only having to reset a single time for a shiny Piplup in Pokemon platinum: th-cam.com/video/V-4LGkK-MbY/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared If you’re curious about people who have spent a long time (like actual time) hunting, here’s a couple of the worst cases I know of: Elite4W spending 1600+ hours shiny hunting Absol in Pokemon colosseum: th-cam.com/video/0hq8e5kzOZM/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared TwistedMotive, who did over 42,000 resets on mostly a single system for a shiny roaming suicune in FRLG: th-cam.com/video/v3ORvMCq8lA/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared I haven’t kept up with the shiny hunting community in a while, so I’m sure there’s even worse cases i haven’t seen yet, or some I just don’t remember. Reply if you know any :) Great video, Adef!
When I saw this title, I thought for sure gen3hunter/Mike's Delibird hunt at over 326k REs would've been an honorable mention at least. th-cam.com/video/xNU8SM3LvwI/w-d-xo.html
@@ouma53 36 phases means that he actually encountered 35 other shiny pokemons before the Delibird. So he was not unlucky and that was pretty much a normal 9% pokemon hunt. These are not 326k without a single shiny pokemon. That would have been astonishing
I love how supportive your wife/girlfriend was when you got your shiny aron! Nothing like having a supportive partner get excited about things that get us excited. Congrats, buddy!
This is a really small thing that may sound stupid to point out, but his girlfriend being so happy and cheering when he finally got the shiny really made my heart smile.
There was a person who took 25 phases to find a shiny natu, and those 25 phases took place over 200,000 encounters. That's the most dedicated I've seen a shiny hunt.
There's a 24/7 stream where a bot is trying to do a shiny Professor Oak in Emerald and there a Seedot encounter (1%) once took almost 4 hours to get when on avg. it's 22 mins. More than 10 times overodds. Not related to an actual shiny itself, but still.
Rare things this stream has had: 1000+ encounters without seeing a 1% encounter Finding a wurmple with an IV Sum of 2 (1 in 38 mil to be at least that low) Finding a shiny in 7 encounters after the previous shiny On route 102 finding 50 shiny lotads (20% enc) before 50 wurmple (30% enc) The stream is currently at 3,600,000 encounters and yet to fight the first gym
@@malachiatkinson7245 Shiny Professor Oak challenge. You must catch/obtain 1 of every possible Pokemon (including all available evolution stages, since 40 Cakes -- the channel who made the aforementioned bot and hosts the 24/7 streams -- is doing a living dex too which requires that) available before beating a gym. Only then can you move on to the next routes.
fun fact: the 63% for getting the shiny at or before the expected value for encounters is an approximation of 1 - 1/e (e ~ 2.718 iirc, Euler's number). you can see that the way the probability is calculated resembles the formula (1-p)^(1/p); for smaller and smaller p, this approximates 1/e (for e, change the subtraction in the base to an addition). a bit of equation manipulation and voila! the chance of something very unlikely in general happening at or before the expected repeat value is about 63%! iirc the approximation is already very good even at n=100 (instead of having to go all the way to 8192), maybe even n=50.
The limit of (1+x)^(1/x) as x tends to zero is one of the definitions of the constant e, so this checks out. If you plug in -x for x you get (1-x)^(-1/x) which should give you e^-1, or -e. As to WHY this limit equals e, the question ends up being a bit odd, because there's an axiom in there somewhere and you have to decide which rule it is (i.e. the one that's your fundamental rule and everything else goes from it). I like defining e as the base of the natural exponential, i.e. the solution to the differential equation y'=y with y(0)=1, because then you can derive this limit definition from the difference quotient (i.e. the limit definition of a derivative) as well as the Taylor sum approximation of e (i.e. x^k/k!).
26:09 hobbyist without an online presence here. i got a shiny entei on my 3rd soft reset, immediately followed by a shiny suicune on my 7th reset in the middle of my freshman year geometry class while my 2ds was seconds away from dying. granted, it was in ORAS with the shiny charm, so the odds were 1/1365, but even still. My first shiny dunsparce in SV also happened to evolve into the three segment form, and i’ve gotten two MORE 3 segment dudunsparces in under 100 shinies, while looking for a rare mark three segment shiny dudunsparce. I do have 60% of all pokémon shiny, with over 200 extra shinies though, so something crazy lucky was bound to happen for me eventually
My luckiest (and most underwhelming) shiny was a lechonk on my 3rd trip between the start area and Artazon in Scarlet. I'm not a big shiny hunter though (only did for 3 pokemon), it was more a cosmic coincidence. Also ran into a shiny azurill while waiting on my hubby to launch his Violet game for raid farming.
My rarest and most underwhelming shiny came to me while I was SOS hunting in Sun, looking for a shiny golett in the desert area. While hunting, I believe it was 89% krokoroks, 10% golett, and only a 1% chance for Castform. With a 1/259 shiny chance beyond 31 chains, and 1/100 for Castform, my lucky/unlucky ass got a 1/25,900 Shiny Castform
Those are some lucky finds xD Here I was wondering what's my luckiest one. I've not hunted a lot, and my first actual hunt was either an Electrike or I can't truly remember what it was But but I still somewhat remember I got a SwitchLite, along with a few games. Booted Sword, played it a bit, did a few resets to get a female starter (I Think. It's been years) and went to sleep. Then, I go play the game normal, I get to the Wild area, wander around a bit from den to den Accidentally hit a roaming pokemon It's an Oddish And it's shiny I'm like Hello????? I had only just started the game practically, and I already had a shiny. I didn't use it in my playthrough (couldn't decide what to evolve it into lol, and was hoping to make a team of only new gen pokemon) (Before Water gym though, I saw that Electrikes were available. Thought, 'hey, wasn't there like a new Shiny hunting method? With encounters? Let me try that' and I did. 999+ Electrike later, no shiny. I turned to breeding. And after a while, it shone. I used that Electrike/Manectric for my playthrough, it's my fave pokemon afterall x2) But ye That accidental Oddish, earliest shiny I ever got Though Violet comes close. A couple of hours into playing, I squint at a circle of Fletchlings. I save just in case, and low and behold, a shiny
thats insane, love me some oras legend hunts. Another hobbyist here who got back to back random encounter shinies in swsh with charm, so both were 1/1365.
First off, amazing video! Really liked how detailed it was. Very well made! I have quite a story my for some of my rather unlucky (I think) and super lucky shiny hunts in my time. I'm one of the shiny hobbists that don't record nor keep track of my encounters. I just go for and see if I can get the shiny I want. My favorite Pokémon games of ALL time are Pokémon Black and White 2. So naturally I wanted to hunt in those games. I've done my fair share of shiny hunts in future games before but not a 1/8192 game so I was both nervous and excited. After finishing a playthrough of White 2 I decided to stick with the game file I had and my first goals were all the Regis. I started with Regirock as he was my fav....got him in 10 encounters. Needless to say I was super hype and knew I was INSANELY lucky, so I moved right on to the next one! ...Registeel. My luck ran out because I hunted this thing all throughout my junior and senior years of highschool and then some of my first year in college I believe. Idk how many encounters it took but it took basically 3 YEARS before it finally shined. My best friend at the time didnt believe in me so when I sent him the picture he couldn't believe it 😂. Unfortunately though I took an indefinite hiatus from the Regis as I was reasonably burnt out. Around a similar time in highschool, I got a used Black 2 from Gamestop and my shiny hunting fire lit up again because I decided I wanted to do a SHINYLOCKE! Even though Snivy is my favorite starter, Emboar's shiny form was too awesome to pass up so I decided to hunt Tepig and OH BOY that little guy ALSO took a few years 🤣 (named him Ganon)! So basically for years I was hunting both Registeel and Tepig. I eventually got both but it was grueling as the years past. I almost lost hope but I was locked it. I'm telling you the way I screamed when I got them...best feeling ever. I also did do my Shinylocke and thankfully I was incredibly lucky with all my encounters. I used both Black and White 2 so my odds were better but it was still really good nonetheless and every encounter took less time than the Registeel and Tepig combined 😂 so it didn't feel NEARLY as bad at all. So thats my story. Good time man, good times.
I don't have any video footage other than the actual encounter, but, when I was shiny hunting my Dialga in Brilliant Diamond (1/4096 odds), I got it on the _third_ encounter. It's my luckiest hunt ever and I don't think I'll ever top it.
It's not documented, but I technically got a shiny in 1 attempt. I got into an encounter on Route 229 of Gen 4. Before I saw what the encounter was, I said to myself "I'm going to close my DS, eat my dinner and when I return it's going to be a shiny". So I did just that, sat down and ate my spaghetti and when I returned to my DS and opened it. Lo and behold, a shiny Gloom. I couldn't believe it. I had never done this before either, or even hunted for shiny Pokemon (I had just found out about them). Although after this I would constantly close my DS at the start of an encounter to try and replicate it. The hinge eventually broke.
Same, I saw a video of someone catching shiny poocheyna early in a ruby game and thought man, I wish that was me, what if I hung back and got a couple more encounters. Whaddaya know
Hey, this isn't the same thing, but in the past year I had a Pokémon be shiny the first time I encountered one on GO! Let me think...it was a male Lechonk!
Definitely something similar has happened to me during one of my SOS battle phases, but you're right. Telling yourself it's gonna happen to get the good mojo only happens occasionally 😄
I thought Calebs 10k Rayquaza hunt was unlucky, but 70k is mind blowing, I'd have given up long before that. Also, having got a few things wrong in my last video, I felt personally attacked at 13:05.
Great watch, man! The timing of this video is perfect for the shiny hunting community! As the community grows, knowledge becomes less centralized. Cleanly and concisely illustrated educational pieces such as this one become integral in order to keep us honest. Also, I don't appreciate being called out in this video. I always know where I put my keys. Sometimes.
It is time to share my villain origin story. Gather around, friends. At the ripe age of 6, I was attending elementary school here in Norway. Beware friends, of treacherous norwegian children. In my hand was my whole world: my GameBoy Advanced SP with a smoking red hot game of Pokémon Ruby. Now on this game, I had ventured deep into a cave, and emerged with an Aron with glowing red eyes. A shiny, although I did not know of or understand the concept at the time. I believed that if I once again ventured deep enough into said cave, I could find more red-eyed arons. Oh, the ignorance of youth. However, in my perfect childhood world, I was faced with one problem. I needed a pokemon with the TM28 skill «Dig», and somehow I was no longer able to attain said skill. Perhaps I had somehow taught it to a pokemon, and then taught it a new move to overwrite Dig. It does not matter. What matters is that there was a kid in my elementary school (oh, the threacherous norwegian children), aged 7. A whole year older than myself, and full of knowledge of the world. He confronted me and said that he had a pokemon with TM28. All he wanted in return, was my red-eyed aron. Which I traded him, just like that. Now he said he had the pokemon with dig on another game and would bring it the next day. I never saw this man (child) again. And, neither did I my sweet, red-eyed aron. Thank you for reading, friends. And beware. Beware, the norwegian children.
Classic childhood story. I traded my dice for nothing. This lil bitch promised me another dice, transparent one, for my black one. She said "my dad has plenty of them". Never saw my dice again. As a kid my ADHD hyperfixations were: Watches, "iron kid" show, circles, and you guessed it, Dice's. But im still thankfull, the learned lesson was more valuable, than this shitty black dice. Now i have two D&D dice sets, and one metal D20. Her name was Daria, i remember this B face to this day. We were 5yo.
Fun fact about the memoryless property: This also means that after any given failed attempt, it's the exact same mathematically as if you were starting a brand new hunt.
Funnily, I've always calculated the odds of having encountered a shiny by X encounters as : (for instance with 1/8,192 odds) P = 1 - (8,191 / 8,192) ^ X (Which I think gives the same result, but it's way more intuitive for me !) It's like "the odds of rolling no shinies X times in a row", which is a simple calculation to visualise in my mind ! ^^
As an OSRS enthusiast, I've done the same thing for lots of the rare drops in that game too. It either happens or it doesn't, so 1 - the chance that it doesn't happen should just be the chance that it happens.
This method seems a lot easier to understand. It's also a lot faster, since you don't have to add up X terms. I'm surprised that the video didn't use this method.
oh haha it seems someone beat me to this comment already! its a little weird that the video doesn't use this one nor makes any reference to it, isn't it?
7:04 Actually you CAN encounter wild Aggron in generation 3! It requires the use of a glitch to be able to catch it, but you can hunt for shiny Aggron in Emerald's Battle Pyramid. There are tons of really cool things there like Charizard, Blastoise, Metagross, Flygon, etc.
great explanation! the section talking about how there’s tons of people throwing proverbial darts at the proverbial dartboard, so super lucky or super unlucky things are bound to happen reminded me a whole lot of a quote from a book i read about 10 years that’s stuck with me: “the one in a million chance will occur, with no more or less than its expected odds, however surprised you may be that it happens to you.” (how not to be wrong, jordan ellenberg). also that may be a slight misquote because i didn’t want to pull the book out to double-check for a youtube comment, lol
With something that has a 1/n chance of happening, the probability that it happens in n attempts gets very close to (1-1/e) as n gets large. That number is about 0.63, so 63%
And even better, due to the decreasing nature of the sequence 1-(1-(1/n))^n which when n gets bigger and bigger, gets close to 1-(1/e) which is stricly bigger than 63%, doesn't matter the n, doing that is gonna yield a probability of success always greater than 63%
I have a personal story of insane luck- this was in Ultra Sun, so base odds were 1/4096. I wanted to shiny hunt Mienfoo using SOS chaining, but the problem with Mienfoo is that some of the wild encounters can know High Jump Kick and faint themselves. To counter this, there was some specific type of Alolan Exeggutor setup that would make sure the Mienfoo wouldn't off themselves- I forgot the details, but I took a good amount of time building up this Exeggutor, getting it the correct items, leveling it up, all that. I set off to Poni Canyon and... literally the first Mienfoo I encountered was shiny. Didn't need to SOS chain, no shiny charm, none of that, just raw 1/4096
this is a great video to help me understand that i'm both experiencing completely normal odds/probabilities, the same as everyone else, but also that i'm so unbelievably lucky that i actively have to remind myself that catching multiple shinies a week is NOT the norm, that most people do NOT find a shiny within the first 10 minutes of opening their game, and i'm maybe just built different
Adef, you definitely are among the top 3 most UNDERWATCHED TH-camrs. Your content level is actually insane! I love your content man, keep doing what you’re doing! Love the channel.
Emerald is a little bit different - it is NOT memoryless. The in-game RNG resets to the same value whenever you restart the cartridge. That means that the likelihood of finding a shiny decreases based on the number of resets you do. (The more resets you do, the less likely it is for you to find a shiny. UNLESS you have found a shiny at around the same time in a reset, in which case it increases the probability of you finding a shiny, and can be controlled to guarantee a shiny)
Maybe that's why the shiny Registeel hunt took so long. You get the same RNG every time and have to hit exactly the (or one of the few) shiny frame(s). If you are unlucky there might not even be a shiny frame between start up and reset.
@@danielsemmelrock7808 in the Gen 4 games the rng is constantly checking itself against the DS’s clock app. Even if someone hits an encounter on the same frame twice in a row, they won’t get the exact same Pokémon twice because the time on the clock will be different. This also works when the DS isn’t connected to wifi because the DS’s offline clock app will still keep track of the passage of time regardless of whether that time is inaccurate.
@daviscunningham1676 It only checks against the clock at start-up. The RNG is seeded by the time the game is started and the delay between when the game is started and when you hit "continue". Otherwise accurate.
Doing some quick trial and error, the point at which you officially cross the line from lucky to unlucky for a shiny hunt is (I think) 5678 (ascending number yay). If it takes you fewer than that many attempts, you got lucky (meaning you had a
As a mathematics major you did a great job with illustrating how the probability equations work and their applications. Felt my brain unlocking when I heard "geometric distribution" and I was transported to the classroom I took probability in.
Thank you for this video. I'm doing my PhD in Statistics and I love it when someone brings up distributions rarely considered. The geometric distribution is one of my favorites.
There’s a story about, Parke from Pokemmo. Where the odds are 1:30000 for a shiny, hunted for an egg shiny charmander. Took him 330k encounters. Literally couldn’t imagine.
I just took a probability and statistic course, and this video was so much more understandable than that. wish I had been able to see this in may. AWESOME VIDEO!!!
FINALLY! someone has explained shiny hunting odds properly. So many videos and comments of people throwing exaggerated numbers like “oh my shiny Chansey that took 20000 encounters was a 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance of happening” when in reality it’s not even that close. Thank you and your friend for providing the correct info and showing people they really don’t understand probability :)
I was (by technicality) hunting Ponytas in BDSP once (I was looking for some speed EVs for a Rapidash for Maylene because her Lucario was giving me trouble). My Ponyta had Flash Fire, making other Ponytas a 50% spawnrate. Through the 50% spawnrates of Ponytas, 1/4096 shiny odds, and my own stupid, dumb luck, I found a full odds shiny Geodude. She was level 22 so she couldn't go boom, I caught her and named her Amber, and that playthrough is *almost* at the Elite 4 (just need to do Victory Road).
I haven't thought this much about statistics since college, but seeing this applied to shiny hunts makes me so happy! Thanks so much for all the research you do and the amazing production quality of your videos!
I don't usually comment, but this feels like it may be the perfect place for a quote i made for myself. "The results of a statistical probability care not about the statistical probability of that result." I feel like this video is basically that sentiment. Thanks for sharing!
I recently completed a shiny only run of shining pearl. It took over 800 hours (seen in switch profile) and I gave up counting at 25k resets for the starter. The starter took over 400 hours of the run, with 4 uncatchable starlies. It was insane.
Great video! As a probabilist, I thought it was a good overview and cleared up a common misconception. 20:11 technically, each encounter isn't independent because the underlying randomness is generated deterministically, which is why people can use RNG manipulation to guarantee a shiny encounter. This doesn't change the core of what you're saying, I just wanted to draw attention to the fact that "randomness" is often used as a stand-in for the outcome of events that are too complex or change too quickly to determine without foresight. Additionally, some shiny hunting methods like chaining pokeradar encounters *do* change the shiny rate over time, which complicates the math a bit. In those cases, independence is inherently invalidated.
I am one of those dedicated shiny hunters who does hunts completely offline and unrecorded. I'll occasionally post my finds, but that's about it. I sometimes track my encounters, but not for every hunt. When LGPE came out, I got myself a copy of LGE and was dead-set on finding a shiny Mewtwo. I didn't track my resets because I didn't expect it to take as long as it did. I reset every day for days, which turned into weeks, and then months, and eventually, I started taking really long breaks in-between. But I still kept trying on occasion because it was always in the back of my mind. Four years. It took FOUR YEARS in total to find the damn thing, but I found it. (hunt started in 2018 and ended in 2022). I wish I would have recorded it or at the very least tracked resets in hindsight because I was screaming and spamming my friends with texts about it when it finally shined. I felt like the unluckiest hunter ever because I hadn't heard of other people's hunts taking that long - especially in a 1/4096 odds game. It's still my proudest shiny. I'll never forget the feeling of seeing that green tail on my screen and not even believing my own eyes. After that long, I wasn't sure if I'd ever get it.
A while back I did a shiny hunt for a Salazzle that took me 4 years to compleat. I initially didn't bother with counting encounters, but after it took quite a while, I counted to ~30,000 encounters before my phone reset on its own and deleted my progress (this was somewhere within the first 2 years, but I don't know specifics). I kept going and finally got the thing 2-3 years after that (hunting did slow down due to college, but I tried to hunt whenever I had free time). I had an abundance of shiny male Salandits I have slowly been pawning off to friends and family who play Pokémon (the first few were numbered), but after a while I just didn't bother catching the shiny males anymore. Once the terrible hunt was over, my sister thought it would be fitting to call her Agony. (Not just for the painful hunt, but also because it kinda fits the corrosive fire-poison typing.) Ahab got nothing on my White Lizard.
I watched your original unluckiest moments video like two days ago and was like „that was cool, i wish this dude made more of that”. Now calculate odds of THAT
A simpler way of setting up the probability - instead of using summation signs - would be to use a formula. It should make intuitive sense: the probability of getting a shiny is 1/8192, so the probability of *not* getting a shiny is 1 - 1/8192, therefore, the probability of *not* getting a shiny in x encounters is (1 - 1/8192)^x, and so the probability of getting a shiny in x encounters is: 1 - (1 - 1/8192)^x
I agree that this is a much simpler method of calculating the probability. I still love the video, but I feel like like this method really should've been included if adef truly wants this video to be a "bible" of sorts for considering probabilities in shiny-hunting.
fun fact: one definition of e^x is lim_{h -> infinity} (1 + x/h)^h, so (1-1/8192)^8192 is an approximation of e^-1 (h=8192,x=-1) so the chance to get a one in h event in h*k tries is roughly 1 - 1/(e^k), which for k=1 is the ~0.63 figure mentioned in the video to get a shiny within the first 8192 tries. iirc the approximation is accurate to ±0.01 when h is around 100, and gets better as h increases.
I wrote a small mod for ruby/sapphire that forces re-rolling for shiny pokemon during a standard wild encounter. The that way it works is the game will temporarily softlock before it enters the wild battle while its rolling and checking and then re-rolling for shinys. This mod doesn't even guarantee a shiny though, i only have it rolling 65535 times before the loop breaks and proceeds with the last generated pokemon regardless of if its shiny or not. Because of this it can sometimes take 10+ minutes until it finally spits out a shiny. I could've made it roll for more than 65535 times but you would potentially have to wait even longer, and your gameboys battery might die before you can even see one.
Ah, that sounds like an interesting mod, even if shinies aren't completely guaranteed it still has a bit of a hunt that way. And Nice pfp. Did you do it yourself?
A friend of mine is on an insane hunt to try and catch as many variations of Spinda as he can; there's about 4 billion patterns and he's been on the hunt since 2020. So...he has about 60 years to keep going, even with a Discord community behind him 😂
About the odds of the 1/8192 chance happening within 8192 encounters being 63%, That number is significant! 1 - 1/e is about 63% For 1/x odds within x encounters, the result approaches 1 - 1/e as X -> infinity. So to win a 1 in a million lottery within 1 million tickets is also 63%
Well no cause you can make sure to get all of the specific numbers, right? If you were to randomise your ticket then yes some would be duplicates hence the 63%(Im not 100% sure how lottery works but I think it's like that, with a set numbers of possibilities) but if it work like the shiny odds (ex: 3/3000000, which is still 1/1000000) then my comment doesn't work... I may be wrong tbh
This was the shiny hunting video I needed! (Mostly because I did not want to do the math myself. I'm glad I don't have probability theory anymore.) Maybe an interesting thing to note is that all the numbers the XOR-operation creates are actually equally likely - like the roll of a die. So that your trainer ID and secret ID don't influence whether you are more likely to encounter a shiny or not, even though they are part of the generating process.
I will never not be grateful to ArcNG for letting me walk away with a shiny Celebi in VC Crystal in less than 500 encounters. Praise be to its many hands.
I didn't record it, but I got a shiny Rotom in 2 encounters in Platinum once. Which was actually terrifying, as I wasn't intentionally shiny hunting it. I was simply trying to catch it, soft reset, and found a shiny. Then went into panic mode, as I only had about 15 balls, which was why I failed the initial catch. Thankfully, I caught it, one of my favorite shinnies ever! And proceeded to box it, and a decade on, never used it once. Edit: My first ever shiny was luckier/unluckier. It was a shiny roaming Raikou in Silver. I didn't even know what shinnies were, I thought it had a lightning animation because it was a special Pokémon. Why else would a level 40 lighting cat spawn outside of the daycare? Of course it had a lightning animation. I never did catch it, and my batteries died not long after, as this was in 2006/2007.
In sword and shield they made the "he's been shiny hunting for a while, lets give him better odds" a real thing, the more encounters you do the higher your odds
The idea of the probability of probability makes me think of a quote from The Colour of Magic, which is something along the lines of “million-to-one chances tend to happen nine times out of ten, as the gods favor those the most”
I didn't count my soft resets but I found the shiny rayquaza I was after in Sapphire super quick. 1 console, full odds, it was definitely less than 1000 SR, maybe even less than 500. I also got a shiny caterpie about 20 minutes into my playthrough of leaf green. I doubt I had even done 16 encounters in the game at all by that point.
"Dr. Poopins notes will be very interesting, please read them when they pop in your screen" Dr. Poopins: For my first note, I will speak chinese and write it in Scandinavian runes so everyone understands
I think the longest hunt (atleast that I know of) will allways be the shiny feebass by Reversal with MORE than 200.000 Encounters. This is the most legendary moment for me Ive seen
I learned for the first time about the crual, impartial but also fascinating and mentally rewarding nature of shiny hunt when I first heard about 40 cakes and his shiny hunting bot 24/7 stream in emerald. It's very interesting as it shows a complete interface to understand most of the numbers, paired with useful commands giving additional and general infos on the hunts. I really recommend to give it a quick look for people who are interested in the whole "science" of shiny hunting, I never knew how it's a complete and unique side of the whole franchise, and why there are players who are so dedicated to it... It's very fascinating
I've witnessed some insanely rare hunts in the full odds community so here's 3 examples you may not have seen! MajesticPale - shiny golduck after 84,816 Shepard992 - Back to back shiny in gen 3 Kiyoshipoo - 2 Different shinies appear on 2 games on the same encounter All of these shinies have been documented and are on TH-cam just search up their usernames! There's so many different ways you can be lucky too 💖
I got a 5 on the AP Statistics exam, and this video helped me better understand geometric probabilities. Different explanations than my teacher used that jived with my brain better. Thanks man!
If you're looking for even faster hunts that have been recorded, I remember MandJTV's legendary reshiram hunt in ultra sun/moon (where the shiny odds are the raised 1/4096). He found it on encounter 1, with the chance of that being pretty obvious
Starting the example section with Dallas's Registeel earned you a sub lol I was watching those streams -- easily my fav shiny hunter -- and that was one heck of a journey lol
I definitely didn't count the encounters because I never expected it to go on as long as it did, but I'm somewhere in the "unluckiest of all time" group mentioned in the comments: I started shiny hunting Mienfoo in the X Friend Safari + Masuda method-ing (so 2013-4?), continued in the Sword DLC + Masuda-methoding AGAIN, and finally caught one after I beat Violet. I spent about 1-2 hours a time hunting when I did, hunted at least 2-3 times per month (more after Violet released), and bred over 3,000 eggs. I also had the Shiny Charm every time. My inability to find Mienfoo was a meme among my friend group and also called karma for hatching a shiny Stunfisk on the third egg. But yeah, I have him now and he's an absolute treasure. But somehow it didn't put me off of hunting forever and just made me love it more. I do have very bad luck though. 7+ years for a damn Mienfoo.
Quick note about shiny odds in Pokémon emerald, they are actually determined by a different algorithm than the other games. To keep it short, they’re determined by the seed and the frames of the game when the encounter takes place, so at certain points it’s impossible to get a shiny on certain seeds (not a big deal for random encounters, but makes soft resets virtually impossible) Shiny Collector has a great video explaining it.
![BOWKYLION - วิงวอน (ex-change) [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/cLdnZWDaO-w/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks for the video Adef! I have now washed my car 10,000+ times and its become shiny every single time. Really helpful video!
This is the best comment I've read all year.
fun fact:
if you considered every time you wash that car as an "pokemon encounter", the odds of you getting a shiny car every single time for 10000+ times is equal to 1 in almost 82 MILLION and counting. nice
@@hellothisisme2010 You actually multiply by 8000 for every single consecutive shiny encounter, so the chance of getting 10000 shinies in a row is 1 in 10^39000. That's 1 with 39000 ZEROS!
@@aster2790 yo thanks (holy fuck thats a lot of zeros)
I think the real concern is what condition your car is in. I'm not a car guy but after 10000 washes I imagine it starts to look like an alternative model lol
I have a PhD in probability, and I can say this is a really good probability video. Especially the part that nobody understands probability (which is 100% true). Good work!
It's certainly guaranteed to be less than 101% true!
I enjoyed my stats class back in high school, and this vid was a great walk through a lot of good memories--Pokémon and math both!
What's the probably that you'll have to ask the government to pay for this "degree"?
@@DS-lk3tx Why the quotes?
Everything is 50/50 it either happens or it doesn't
"Doubt that someone not doing it on the internet would keep going after 50,000 encounters"
*sunk cost fallacy* "Allow me to introduce myself"
Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...just after this i know im close...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...Just one more encounter...just after this i know im close...
Sounds like a pyrrhic victory for shiny hunters
Took me 27k~ for a shiny Giratina in platinum with only one cart and by that point I was fuelled by nothing other than autism and sunken cost fallacy
70k encounters here on hgss for shiny mareep 🥲
*HG roaming Latias, 64k sr* Sunk cost fallacy, thy name is my bane
Hey, shinyhunter who studied maths here! Thanks for your very cool and educative video ! However, I think you made things a bit more complicated that it needed to be. Let's take for example the probability p(n
Yeah this is how I always calculate these sorts of odds, I was confused by the math in the video but still got the same answer. Cool breakdown.
you are so cool for this, have a good day stranger
and to super simplify it, 1-pbinom(0,3967,(1/8192))
I have not read this, but just for the effort, thx, you are awesome
Hey, cool calculations. You mention that your average hunt is pretty close to the 5678 that you mention. I'm curious; do you mean your mean average or median average? Based on how you got that number, we should expect 5678 to be the median average length of a shiny hunt, whereas 8192 should still be the expected value/mean average length of a hunt. If around 5678 happens to be your mean average, that would mean you've been overall quite lucky!
I’m such a nerd I knew which specific hunt this thumbnail was referring to the moment I saw it.
Okay. That's pretty extreme.
Same here😅
me too i specifically clicked the video because i knew it was gonna be about supreme rk9s 😭😭😭
I’m such a nerd I knew exactly which probability distribution he was talking about the moment I saw it - after all, Bernoulli tests are also used in calculating odds for tabletop RPG dice
…🤓
EDIT: I paused the video at 14:38 after confirming that indeed he was talking about the Bernoull test, and the context is that I used it to prove that a certain RPG dice site can't possibly be true-random in how the rolls get distributed to the clients (actually, it was an inverse Bernoulli trial, which is useful when you want to know how likely it is to have something happen repeatedly), even if the dice are true-random when the server generates them, because it would be rather unlikely even if everyone on the planet were to roll dice every second for an entire century for someone to see a specific combination of rolls that actually happened in some games I played on that site. This test works because it relies on things happening over time, rather than one single event, so it's the probability that all these things happen together that's important...anyway
@@NathanSimonGottemer well, that one doesn't require you to be a nerd. Anyone who's so much as smelled a probability or statistics lesson would know it's Bernoulli distribution.
Candyevie made a video where she got a shiny wooper in 68851 encounters and she thought she was the unluckiest shiny hunter ever but it turned out "ShinyCollector" got a ralts in 69498. Bit fascinating that both these runs and the one in the video are so close to each other.
I know its a childish joke, but damn they were so close to 69420. Thats also insane that it took that long
Yooo! Wooper and Ralts are my two favorites! I'd love to shiny hunt them one day
the cool thing about these numbers is that approaching 70000 encounters, the cumulative probability of getting a shiny is around 99.999%. so you'd actually expect that the famously unlucky shiny hunts would be somewhere around this number. and actually, it's not that rare. this is happening to 1 in every 100,000 shiny hunts. considering the number of shiny hunters and shiny hunts going on, this has to have happened a fair number of times.
having a shiny hunt go above 80000 though, that's 1 in a million hunts.
@@a.v.y8331I’d be surprised if there’s been over 10,000 shiny hunts
Wouldn't CandyEvie still be the most unlucky? Considering in most games and situations, Wooper is a semi common to common encounter in it's habitats. And Ralts is almost always a rare once. Without doing the math I would think that the Ralts is still significantly more lucky.
Very thankful that I've yet to experience listening to Route 216 without feeling happy - hoping to have more outlier shiny hunts than see that happen!!!! GREAT breakdown of all the probability of shiny hunting and much needed with all the silly discourse going around right now
Omg thank you!!!! This video would truly not have been the same without your swinub clip. I cannot thank you enough for allowing me to use it! I hope I did some justice to this part of the Pokémon community that you love so much!!
@@adef th-cam.com/video/5v-PgChtcUA/w-d-xo.htmlsi=glzcfwVriJhlszxD He got a shiny gastly in 8 eggs in a video released one hour before this one.
What discourse is going on?
yeah that’s what I wanna know!! I’m in the middle of a big hunt and I’m worried about getting dragged through the mud once my channel jirachi finally shines
@@stellad463 it's just silly stuff about probabilities when multiple consoles are added to the mix
A TH-camr, MandJTV, caught a shiny Giratina in USUM, and then immediately found a first encounter Reshiram as his next encounter.
While that was incredibly lucky, it was Gen 7 with shiny charm, so the odds were much higher than 1/8192
ChuggaaConroy found a shiny koffing in literally 1 attempt. That man is also ridiculously lucky, so uh, ye
i did this before too.
shiny latios, then shiny virizion in alpha sapphire.
unfortunately, because i had gone into that virizion battle blind (i just wanted to see what sword of justice was available to me on the island that day), i totally wasn't prepared to catch it. i couldn't put it to sleep (grass types are immune to spore), and it kept on healing out of 1 HP with giga drain.
it killed itself with struggle. RIP, bubble-gum pink virizion :(
@@kkim5000 dude, that’s so rough… but you always gotta be prepared for anything with shinies.
@@NathanSimonGottemer this was in pokemon crystal to boot, and he wasn't even shiny hunting. He was looking for a koffing to add to hsi letsplay team.
the best compliment I can give this video is I started it off shiny hunting to watch in the background (as I do 99% of videos + over odds 3 segement dudunsparce hunt is breaking me) and I found myself frequently stopping hunting just to watch the full video. about 15 minutes in I realized I hadn't done more than like 2 minutes of hunting put my switch down and watched the whole thing. Super super super interesting stuff and engaging as hell. Awesome vid!!
DUNSPARCE!!!! MY FAVORITE POKEMON.!!
The absolute last thing I expected going into this video was jimmypoopins lore.
1:11 This is because human brains use logarithms a lot! We naturally batch "attempts 1-10", "attempts 11-100", and "attempts 101-1000" together, which leads to a "more likely the longer you look" heuristic that works with practical causal deduction ("it's learned how to hide from me" or "we've fished this hole barren") a lot more easily than "raw" probability evaluation.
The shade thrown in the "List of things that (probably) haven't happened" section is so good, I'm 100% here for this.
“Actually experience a cosmic ray bit flip during a speedrun” lmao
The dream reference is what got me tbh, hilarious
I can spell Almond though..! I mean I see it spelled out on jars of it, so, like of course I know how to spell it (‾◡◝)
@@lunamagnoliid8984 its alomomola, the fish pokemon from gen V, not almond XD
@@shelmet5 my God I knew I needed to check what I thought I read 0u0
Great video as always and a pleasant surprise cameo by jimmypoopins of all people! In terms of crazy shiny hunting odds, there’s a bot run by a youtube channel named 40 Cakes that is attempting a shiny Professor Oak Challenge in Emerald. It’s been “stuck” before even getting the first badge due to Seedot being a 1% encounter! It managed to get one in 2023 and has been on the hunt for another one for almost a full year this coming August.
so far the fastest hunt was a 7 encounter wurmple, and the longest was a 62,686 lotad. still doesn't beat the registeel, but still crazy!
I love this video so much. I love occasionally checking my shiny odds and putting them in the calculation to find out how unlucky or lucky I was. It makes shiny hunting much more fun if you ask me.
“What if I asked you about the odds of finding a shiny within 2500 encounters”
For the love of god don’t bring me back to statistics, I lost part of my soul in that textbook
"Translate to English"
Kyle is an adef enjoyer??
Its like my favorite creators all watch each other. I love it
Unexpected, but nice
Do I see a potential collaboration in the making? Maybe, but what would Aria think...?
Are shinies nuclear?
For the incredibly lucky shinies, Chuggaaconroy's Pokemon Crystal run comes to mind. He was looking to add a Koffing to his team, just because that's what he wanted to have. So he steps into the Burned Tower in Ecruteak. IIRC he has a few encounters with Gastly and Zubat that he cuts out before it shows him encountering the Koffing. He starts talking about how it's what he wants to add to his team and... it's Shiny. Yes, it's not a Shiny HUNT, but the fact that the very first encounter of a Pokemon he wanted anyways happened to be shiny...
Methane my beloved
This is the first ever shiny reaction I remember watching
I wanted to leave a personal story since it's probably the best luck I've seen in person. Me and my partner are currently replaying sun and moon. She likes Salamence, so we we're gunning for the 1% Salamence SOS encounter on route 3. She ran into about 6 or so Bagon at 1%, and while we weren't keeping track, I think that's about 600 encounters on average.
I kid you not, she found 2 shiny Spearow while trying to find Bagon. With Spearow's encounter rate of 49% she probably encountered just under 300. I still can't believe it but now she's got a shiny Spearow and Fearow. It was on the same day too. She had found the first while I was at work just after lunch. And then the second one appeared about an hour or two after I got home.
It wasn't a dedicated hunt but I still find it absolutely fascinating. I don't really have the know-how to calculate the odds either so I thought I'd leave this here for a more savvy individual to work out. I know it's the 1 in 4000 base odds, but 2 so close together feels very unlikely.
That's so wild, on my 2nd playthrough of Moon I also found a Shiny Spearow on Route 2, basically right at the beginning of the game. Guess Spearows like being Shiny in Alola!
Also, to answer your question on what the odds would be, since the question is "what are the odds of finding 2 shiny Spearow in 600 encounters" (As the Spearows were secondary to the object of finding a Bagon) we can use the Binomial Distribution here
(600_C_2) * (1/4096)^2 * (4095/4096)^598 ~= 0.00926, or 0.926%
So, it's roughly a 1 in 108 chance to find 2 shinies in 600 encounters from Generation 6 onward.
From here, we can just multiply by 0.49^2 (The chance they're both Spearows) to get about 0.0222%. It ends up being around 1 in 450 total.
(Edited because I first used the 300 Spearows encountered, not the 600 total encounters like I should have. Reading comprehension is just as important as math, stay in school kids!)
why lie to strangers on the internet? is it an attention thing?
@@ppstorm_ rough day huh?
@@ppstorm_ ppl like you that go r/thathappened at every single lucky thing that happens in life have really got to understand that 1. life is weirder than you think and with 8 billion ppl on the planet weird things will happen all the time 2. shiny pokemon aren't that rare in the grand scheme of things so it's really not high stakes or prestigious enough for anyone to lie about it
To think there is a chance of someone out there never getting a shiny pokemon no matter how hard they try is hilarious
They will spend their whole life thinking it's a myth while they keep rolling the unluckiest odds imaginable
One thing I like to think about in regards to shiny starters is how many people bought the game new, then got a shiny starter on their first try. Its easy to break down really; just take units sold divided by the games shiny odds and there you are. It gives an average anyway, as it doesnt take into account copies of the game that were sold and never played of course, but Its interesting food for thought. On a slightly different note, Emeralds "shiny frames" are always the same for a particular save file once created, even once the game is switched off and back on as it always has the same seed. Ruby ands Sapphire behave the same, but only when the battery is dry.
While Dallas did get exceptionally unlucky, here’s some other clips that are even unluckier than that:
Poor majesticpale spent 84k hunting for a golduck in Pokemon silver: th-cam.com/video/KX0XRp3yGjA/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
Nightshade having an 80k phase for a shandshrew: th-cam.com/video/630Hiv4_4m0/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
Rockrufflepuff going 75k for a shiny mewtwo in hgss: th-cam.com/video/xiYmdbaBrXQ/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=share
Noopy going over 70k here: th-cam.com/video/sH-cCZNe3CE/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
While not as bad, beatingbros went 67k for a shiny dialga (MASSIVE headphone warning) th-cam.com/video/73RBXLQeYX8/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
Cabbage spent 78k hunting for a quagsire (and went 60k on a hunt not too long before this… poor guy) th-cam.com/video/sktV41B5tiQ/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
The final hunt I remember was someone going over 100k for a shiny starter in HGSS, but I can’t find the link for the life of me. I have seen this video, though, and if I find it again I will edit the comment with it.
On the contrary, here is quite literally the luckiest you can be, with detectivemocha only having to reset a single time for a shiny Piplup in Pokemon platinum: th-cam.com/video/V-4LGkK-MbY/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
If you’re curious about people who have spent a long time (like actual time) hunting, here’s a couple of the worst cases I know of:
Elite4W spending 1600+ hours shiny hunting Absol in Pokemon colosseum: th-cam.com/video/0hq8e5kzOZM/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
TwistedMotive, who did over 42,000 resets on mostly a single system for a shiny roaming suicune in FRLG: th-cam.com/video/v3ORvMCq8lA/w-d-xo.htmlfeature=shared
I haven’t kept up with the shiny hunting community in a while, so I’m sure there’s even worse cases i haven’t seen yet, or some I just don’t remember. Reply if you know any :)
Great video, Adef!
When I saw this title, I thought for sure gen3hunter/Mike's Delibird hunt at over 326k REs would've been an honorable mention at least.
th-cam.com/video/xNU8SM3LvwI/w-d-xo.html
Legend.
@@ouma53 36 phases means that he actually encountered 35 other shiny pokemons before the Delibird. So he was not unlucky and that was pretty much a normal 9% pokemon hunt. These are not 326k without a single shiny pokemon. That would have been astonishing
@@zDarkoTM My example was because of the phases themselves which are predominantly the Zubat family.
There was also a guy who got two full odds shinies in a row though, right
I love how supportive your wife/girlfriend was when you got your shiny aron! Nothing like having a supportive partner get excited about things that get us excited. Congrats, buddy!
If its who i think it is, she shiny hunts as well. Makes sense why she’d be supportive
a shame he completely ignored her in the clip. would’ve been sweet if he at least looked at his supportive girlfriend when he got it
@@T1MB05L1C3She’s a massive shiny hunter. She’s done many over odds hunts
Arlie is not his gf/wife. She is a lesbian.
He looks much more like her brother.
This is a really small thing that may sound stupid to point out, but his girlfriend being so happy and cheering when he finally got the shiny really made my heart smile.
There was a person who took 25 phases to find a shiny natu, and those 25 phases took place over 200,000 encounters. That's the most dedicated I've seen a shiny hunt.
Do you remember who?
@TurnipBoy666 mi678tv
this video honestly helped me realize that my luck isnt nearly as bad as i thought it was
There's a 24/7 stream where a bot is trying to do a shiny Professor Oak in Emerald and there a Seedot encounter (1%) once took almost 4 hours to get when on avg. it's 22 mins. More than 10 times overodds. Not related to an actual shiny itself, but still.
40 cakes mentioned 🌰🌰🌰
Rare things this stream has had:
1000+ encounters without seeing a 1% encounter
Finding a wurmple with an IV Sum of 2 (1 in 38 mil to be at least that low)
Finding a shiny in 7 encounters after the previous shiny
On route 102 finding 50 shiny lotads (20% enc) before 50 wurmple (30% enc)
The stream is currently at 3,600,000 encounters and yet to fight the first gym
Trying to do a shiny _what?_
@@malachiatkinson7245 Shiny Professor Oak challenge. You must catch/obtain 1 of every possible Pokemon (including all available evolution stages, since 40 Cakes -- the channel who made the aforementioned bot and hosts the 24/7 streams -- is doing a living dex too which requires that) available before beating a gym. Only then can you move on to the next routes.
@@SalamanderMoon I see, thank you. While you're here, I've also never been clear on what a "living dex" is, would you mind explaining that as well?
fun fact: the 63% for getting the shiny at or before the expected value for encounters is an approximation of 1 - 1/e (e ~ 2.718 iirc, Euler's number). you can see that the way the probability is calculated resembles the formula (1-p)^(1/p); for smaller and smaller p, this approximates 1/e (for e, change the subtraction in the base to an addition). a bit of equation manipulation and voila! the chance of something very unlikely in general happening at or before the expected repeat value is about 63%! iirc the approximation is already very good even at n=100 (instead of having to go all the way to 8192), maybe even n=50.
yes
The limit of (1+x)^(1/x) as x tends to zero is one of the definitions of the constant e, so this checks out. If you plug in -x for x you get (1-x)^(-1/x) which should give you e^-1, or -e.
As to WHY this limit equals e, the question ends up being a bit odd, because there's an axiom in there somewhere and you have to decide which rule it is (i.e. the one that's your fundamental rule and everything else goes from it). I like defining e as the base of the natural exponential, i.e. the solution to the differential equation y'=y with y(0)=1, because then you can derive this limit definition from the difference quotient (i.e. the limit definition of a derivative) as well as the Taylor sum approximation of e (i.e. x^k/k!).
Euler's number just crops up everywhere in mathematics.
26:09 hobbyist without an online presence here. i got a shiny entei on my 3rd soft reset, immediately followed by a shiny suicune on my 7th reset in the middle of my freshman year geometry class while my 2ds was seconds away from dying.
granted, it was in ORAS with the shiny charm, so the odds were 1/1365, but even still.
My first shiny dunsparce in SV also happened to evolve into the three segment form, and i’ve gotten two MORE 3 segment dudunsparces in under 100 shinies, while looking for a rare mark three segment shiny dudunsparce.
I do have 60% of all pokémon shiny, with over 200 extra shinies though, so something crazy lucky was bound to happen for me eventually
My luckiest (and most underwhelming) shiny was a lechonk on my 3rd trip between the start area and Artazon in Scarlet. I'm not a big shiny hunter though (only did for 3 pokemon), it was more a cosmic coincidence. Also ran into a shiny azurill while waiting on my hubby to launch his Violet game for raid farming.
My rarest and most underwhelming shiny came to me while I was SOS hunting in Sun, looking for a shiny golett in the desert area. While hunting, I believe it was 89% krokoroks, 10% golett, and only a 1% chance for Castform. With a 1/259 shiny chance beyond 31 chains, and 1/100 for Castform, my lucky/unlucky ass got a 1/25,900 Shiny Castform
Those are some lucky finds xD
Here I was wondering what's my luckiest one. I've not hunted a lot, and my first actual hunt was either an Electrike or I can't truly remember what it was
But but
I still somewhat remember
I got a SwitchLite, along with a few games. Booted Sword, played it a bit, did a few resets to get a female starter (I Think. It's been years) and went to sleep. Then, I go play the game normal, I get to the Wild area, wander around a bit from den to den
Accidentally hit a roaming pokemon
It's an Oddish
And it's shiny
I'm like
Hello?????
I had only just started the game practically, and I already had a shiny.
I didn't use it in my playthrough (couldn't decide what to evolve it into lol, and was hoping to make a team of only new gen pokemon) (Before Water gym though, I saw that Electrikes were available. Thought, 'hey, wasn't there like a new Shiny hunting method? With encounters? Let me try that' and I did. 999+ Electrike later, no shiny. I turned to breeding. And after a while, it shone. I used that Electrike/Manectric for my playthrough, it's my fave pokemon afterall x2)
But ye
That accidental Oddish, earliest shiny I ever got
Though Violet comes close. A couple of hours into playing, I squint at a circle of Fletchlings. I save just in case, and low and behold, a shiny
thats insane, love me some oras legend hunts. Another hobbyist here who got back to back random encounter shinies in swsh with charm, so both were 1/1365.
First off, amazing video! Really liked how detailed it was. Very well made!
I have quite a story my for some of my rather unlucky (I think) and super lucky shiny hunts in my time.
I'm one of the shiny hobbists that don't record nor keep track of my encounters. I just go for and see if I can get the shiny I want.
My favorite Pokémon games of ALL time are Pokémon Black and White 2. So naturally I wanted to hunt in those games. I've done my fair share of shiny hunts in future games before but not a 1/8192 game so I was both nervous and excited.
After finishing a playthrough of White 2 I decided to stick with the game file I had and my first goals were all the Regis. I started with Regirock as he was my fav....got him in 10 encounters. Needless to say I was super hype and knew I was INSANELY lucky, so I moved right on to the next one!
...Registeel. My luck ran out because I hunted this thing all throughout my junior and senior years of highschool and then some of my first year in college I believe. Idk how many encounters it took but it took basically 3 YEARS before it finally shined. My best friend at the time didnt believe in me so when I sent him the picture he couldn't believe it 😂.
Unfortunately though I took an indefinite hiatus from the Regis as I was reasonably burnt out.
Around a similar time in highschool, I got a used Black 2 from Gamestop and my shiny hunting fire lit up again because I decided I wanted to do a SHINYLOCKE! Even though Snivy is my favorite starter, Emboar's shiny form was too awesome to pass up so I decided to hunt Tepig and OH BOY that little guy ALSO took a few years 🤣 (named him Ganon)!
So basically for years I was hunting both Registeel and Tepig. I eventually got both but it was grueling as the years past. I almost lost hope but I was locked it. I'm telling you the way I screamed when I got them...best feeling ever.
I also did do my Shinylocke and thankfully I was incredibly lucky with all my encounters. I used both Black and White 2 so my odds were better but it was still really good nonetheless and every encounter took less time than the Registeel and Tepig combined 😂 so it didn't feel NEARLY as bad at all. So thats my story.
Good time man, good times.
I don't have any video footage other than the actual encounter, but, when I was shiny hunting my Dialga in Brilliant Diamond (1/4096 odds), I got it on the _third_ encounter. It's my luckiest hunt ever and I don't think I'll ever top it.
It's not documented, but I technically got a shiny in 1 attempt. I got into an encounter on Route 229 of Gen 4. Before I saw what the encounter was, I said to myself "I'm going to close my DS, eat my dinner and when I return it's going to be a shiny". So I did just that, sat down and ate my spaghetti and when I returned to my DS and opened it. Lo and behold, a shiny Gloom. I couldn't believe it. I had never done this before either, or even hunted for shiny Pokemon (I had just found out about them). Although after this I would constantly close my DS at the start of an encounter to try and replicate it. The hinge eventually broke.
magic sparkly spaghetti!
Same, I saw a video of someone catching shiny poocheyna early in a ruby game and thought man, I wish that was me, what if I hung back and got a couple more encounters. Whaddaya know
@@synthwav_ sparkling power Lvl 3 spaghetti
Hey, this isn't the same thing, but in the past year I had a Pokémon be shiny the first time I encountered one on GO!
Let me think...it was a male Lechonk!
Definitely something similar has happened to me during one of my SOS battle phases, but you're right. Telling yourself it's gonna happen to get the good mojo only happens occasionally 😄
I thought Calebs 10k Rayquaza hunt was unlucky, but 70k is mind blowing, I'd have given up long before that.
Also, having got a few things wrong in my last video, I felt personally attacked at 13:05.
Hello!
LOL
hes also the guy who hunted giratina for a WHILE and when he finaly got it his game froze losing him the shiny lol
Had a 68k Giratina that made me quit hunting
Some dude here in comment section said that he saw some ytber/streamer spendin 330k encounters to get shiny. Autism is really bizarre.
Great watch, man! The timing of this video is perfect for the shiny hunting community! As the community grows, knowledge becomes less centralized. Cleanly and concisely illustrated educational pieces such as this one become integral in order to keep us honest.
Also, I don't appreciate being called out in this video. I always know where I put my keys. Sometimes.
It is time to share my villain origin story. Gather around, friends.
At the ripe age of 6, I was attending elementary school here in Norway. Beware friends, of treacherous norwegian children. In my hand was my whole world: my GameBoy Advanced SP with a smoking red hot game of Pokémon Ruby. Now on this game, I had ventured deep into a cave, and emerged with an Aron with glowing red eyes. A shiny, although I did not know of or understand the concept at the time. I believed that if I once again ventured deep enough into said cave, I could find more red-eyed arons. Oh, the ignorance of youth.
However, in my perfect childhood world, I was faced with one problem. I needed a pokemon with the TM28 skill «Dig», and somehow I was no longer able to attain said skill. Perhaps I had somehow taught it to a pokemon, and then taught it a new move to overwrite Dig. It does not matter. What matters is that there was a kid in my elementary school (oh, the threacherous norwegian children), aged 7. A whole year older than myself, and full of knowledge of the world. He confronted me and said that he had a pokemon with TM28. All he wanted in return, was my red-eyed aron.
Which I traded him, just like that. Now he said he had the pokemon with dig on another game and would bring it the next day.
I never saw this man (child) again. And, neither did I my sweet, red-eyed aron.
Thank you for reading, friends. And beware. Beware, the norwegian children.
Classic childhood story. I traded my dice for nothing. This lil bitch promised me another dice, transparent one, for my black one. She said "my dad has plenty of them". Never saw my dice again. As a kid my ADHD hyperfixations were: Watches, "iron kid" show, circles, and you guessed it, Dice's. But im still thankfull, the learned lesson was more valuable, than this shitty black dice. Now i have two D&D dice sets, and one metal D20. Her name was Daria, i remember this B face to this day. We were 5yo.
Fun fact about the memoryless property: This also means that after any given failed attempt, it's the exact same mathematically as if you were starting a brand new hunt.
Funnily, I've always calculated the odds of having encountered a shiny by X encounters as : (for instance with 1/8,192 odds)
P = 1 - (8,191 / 8,192) ^ X
(Which I think gives the same result, but it's way more intuitive for me !)
It's like "the odds of rolling no shinies X times in a row", which is a simple calculation to visualise in my mind ! ^^
As an OSRS enthusiast, I've done the same thing for lots of the rare drops in that game too. It either happens or it doesn't, so 1 - the chance that it doesn't happen should just be the chance that it happens.
This method seems a lot easier to understand. It's also a lot faster, since you don't have to add up X terms. I'm surprised that the video didn't use this method.
This is just...the correct method of doing it.
oh haha it seems someone beat me to this comment already! its a little weird that the video doesn't use this one nor makes any reference to it, isn't it?
Wow, Thank you very much, this is so intuitive, my head was melting after all calculations done in the vid, but you solved this problem, thank you
7:04 Actually you CAN encounter wild Aggron in generation 3! It requires the use of a glitch to be able to catch it, but you can hunt for shiny Aggron in Emerald's Battle Pyramid. There are tons of really cool things there like Charizard, Blastoise, Metagross, Flygon, etc.
Was NOT expecting the return of jimmypoopins.
Great video by the way! I really enjoyed all this!
JIMMYPOOPINS FROM THE SUMMONINGSALT VIDEO IS A CRAZY ASS CROSSOVER
great explanation! the section talking about how there’s tons of people throwing proverbial darts at the proverbial dartboard, so super lucky or super unlucky things are bound to happen reminded me a whole lot of a quote from a book i read about 10 years that’s stuck with me: “the one in a million chance will occur, with no more or less than its expected odds, however surprised you may be that it happens to you.” (how not to be wrong, jordan ellenberg). also that may be a slight misquote because i didn’t want to pull the book out to double-check for a youtube comment, lol
With something that has a 1/n chance of happening, the probability that it happens in n attempts gets very close to (1-1/e) as n gets large. That number is about 0.63, so 63%
And even better, due to the decreasing nature of the sequence 1-(1-(1/n))^n which when n gets bigger and bigger, gets close to 1-(1/e) which is stricly bigger than 63%, doesn't matter the n, doing that is gonna yield a probability of success always greater than 63%
everything always comes back to that damned e
I have a personal story of insane luck- this was in Ultra Sun, so base odds were 1/4096. I wanted to shiny hunt Mienfoo using SOS chaining, but the problem with Mienfoo is that some of the wild encounters can know High Jump Kick and faint themselves. To counter this, there was some specific type of Alolan Exeggutor setup that would make sure the Mienfoo wouldn't off themselves- I forgot the details, but I took a good amount of time building up this Exeggutor, getting it the correct items, leveling it up, all that. I set off to Poni Canyon and... literally the first Mienfoo I encountered was shiny. Didn't need to SOS chain, no shiny charm, none of that, just raw 1/4096
"Spelling 'Alomomola' correctly the first time"
The amount of pokedex quizzes where that occured proves this correct I'd say.
People reading Vivillon as Vivillion without noticing
This video had me VOLUNTARILY pulling up Wolfram Alpha for the first time since I graduated, incredible work
this is a great video to help me understand that i'm both experiencing completely normal odds/probabilities, the same as everyone else, but also that i'm so unbelievably lucky that i actively have to remind myself that catching multiple shinies a week is NOT the norm, that most people do NOT find a shiny within the first 10 minutes of opening their game, and i'm maybe just built different
Adef, you definitely are among the top 3 most UNDERWATCHED TH-camrs. Your content level is actually insane! I love your content man, keep doing what you’re doing! Love the channel.
I don't like to phrase it as "1 shiny after every 8192 encounters", it's more like: "you can expect 1 out of every 8192 encounters to be shiny"
Yep, the wording is so important for a statement to be true versus not. Probability is hard to understand and verbalize
The main issue is that people see those statements as meaning the exact same thing
Runescape players know this to heart. Get to 5000 kills on a boss with an item with a 1/5000 drop rate...63% of the way there wooo!
Yeah, that reads to me "every 8193rd Pokemon you encounter is shiny.
@@Metaltacola as an on and off OSRS player, it does make me chuckle seeing pokemon players get confused over droprates
Emerald is a little bit different - it is NOT memoryless. The in-game RNG resets to the same value whenever you restart the cartridge. That means that the likelihood of finding a shiny decreases based on the number of resets you do. (The more resets you do, the less likely it is for you to find a shiny. UNLESS you have found a shiny at around the same time in a reset, in which case it increases the probability of you finding a shiny, and can be controlled to guarantee a shiny)
Maybe that's why the shiny Registeel hunt took so long.
You get the same RNG every time and have to hit exactly the (or one of the few) shiny frame(s).
If you are unlucky there might not even be a shiny frame between start up and reset.
@@danielsemmelrock7808 He wasn't hunting in Emerald. That's Platinum footage.
@@ouma53 Oh true, but isn't the RNG also just semi-random in Platinum?
@@danielsemmelrock7808 in the Gen 4 games the rng is constantly checking itself against the DS’s clock app. Even if someone hits an encounter on the same frame twice in a row, they won’t get the exact same Pokémon twice because the time on the clock will be different. This also works when the DS isn’t connected to wifi because the DS’s offline clock app will still keep track of the passage of time regardless of whether that time is inaccurate.
@daviscunningham1676 It only checks against the clock at start-up. The RNG is seeded by the time the game is started and the delay between when the game is started and when you hit "continue".
Otherwise accurate.
Doing some quick trial and error, the point at which you officially cross the line from lucky to unlucky for a shiny hunt is (I think) 5678 (ascending number yay). If it takes you fewer than that many attempts, you got lucky (meaning you had a
As a mathematics major you did a great job with illustrating how the probability equations work and their applications. Felt my brain unlocking when I heard "geometric distribution" and I was transported to the classroom I took probability in.
Thank you for this video. I'm doing my PhD in Statistics and I love it when someone brings up distributions rarely considered. The geometric distribution is one of my favorites.
There’s a story about, Parke from Pokemmo. Where the odds are 1:30000 for a shiny, hunted for an egg shiny charmander. Took him 330k encounters. Literally couldn’t imagine.
If he goes to the gym, i fear the monster that he gonna become. Truly, peak Autism dedication.
Wake up babe, the new Bill Nye pokemon video just dropped
I just took a probability and statistic course, and this video was so much more understandable than that. wish I had been able to see this in may. AWESOME VIDEO!!!
FINALLY! someone has explained shiny hunting odds properly. So many videos and comments of people throwing exaggerated numbers like “oh my shiny Chansey that took 20000 encounters was a 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance of happening” when in reality it’s not even that close. Thank you and your friend for providing the correct info and showing people they really don’t understand probability :)
I was (by technicality) hunting Ponytas in BDSP once (I was looking for some speed EVs for a Rapidash for Maylene because her Lucario was giving me trouble). My Ponyta had Flash Fire, making other Ponytas a 50% spawnrate. Through the 50% spawnrates of Ponytas, 1/4096 shiny odds, and my own stupid, dumb luck, I found a full odds shiny Geodude. She was level 22 so she couldn't go boom, I caught her and named her Amber, and that playthrough is *almost* at the Elite 4 (just need to do Victory Road).
incredible video!!!!
shiny hunting is a wild hobby, and I'm glad there's now a great video recapping the ins and outs of the math behind it all!!
I haven't thought this much about statistics since college, but seeing this applied to shiny hunts makes me so happy! Thanks so much for all the research you do and the amazing production quality of your videos!
I don't usually comment, but this feels like it may be the perfect place for a quote i made for myself.
"The results of a statistical probability care not about the statistical probability of that result."
I feel like this video is basically that sentiment. Thanks for sharing!
I recently completed a shiny only run of shining pearl. It took over 800 hours (seen in switch profile) and I gave up counting at 25k resets for the starter. The starter took over 400 hours of the run, with 4 uncatchable starlies. It was insane.
Great video! As a probabilist, I thought it was a good overview and cleared up a common misconception.
20:11 technically, each encounter isn't independent because the underlying randomness is generated deterministically, which is why people can use RNG manipulation to guarantee a shiny encounter.
This doesn't change the core of what you're saying, I just wanted to draw attention to the fact that "randomness" is often used as a stand-in for the outcome of events that are too complex or change too quickly to determine without foresight. Additionally, some shiny hunting methods like chaining pokeradar encounters *do* change the shiny rate over time, which complicates the math a bit. In those cases, independence is inherently invalidated.
+1 to all of this
It's moreso that the *frames* are shiny, not the encounter.
Amazing as always!!! And yes I was SO MAD that I stepped away just as you got the encounter 😂
I've commented "y'all are misrepresenting what full shiny odds actually means" on a dozen videos, thanks for validating me
I am one of those dedicated shiny hunters who does hunts completely offline and unrecorded. I'll occasionally post my finds, but that's about it. I sometimes track my encounters, but not for every hunt.
When LGPE came out, I got myself a copy of LGE and was dead-set on finding a shiny Mewtwo. I didn't track my resets because I didn't expect it to take as long as it did. I reset every day for days, which turned into weeks, and then months, and eventually, I started taking really long breaks in-between. But I still kept trying on occasion because it was always in the back of my mind.
Four years. It took FOUR YEARS in total to find the damn thing, but I found it. (hunt started in 2018 and ended in 2022). I wish I would have recorded it or at the very least tracked resets in hindsight because I was screaming and spamming my friends with texts about it when it finally shined. I felt like the unluckiest hunter ever because I hadn't heard of other people's hunts taking that long - especially in a 1/4096 odds game.
It's still my proudest shiny. I'll never forget the feeling of seeing that green tail on my screen and not even believing my own eyes. After that long, I wasn't sure if I'd ever get it.
A while back I did a shiny hunt for a Salazzle that took me 4 years to compleat.
I initially didn't bother with counting encounters, but after it took quite a while, I counted to ~30,000 encounters before my phone reset on its own and deleted my progress (this was somewhere within the first 2 years, but I don't know specifics).
I kept going and finally got the thing 2-3 years after that (hunting did slow down due to college, but I tried to hunt whenever I had free time).
I had an abundance of shiny male Salandits I have slowly been pawning off to friends and family who play Pokémon (the first few were numbered), but after a while I just didn't bother catching the shiny males anymore.
Once the terrible hunt was over, my sister thought it would be fitting to call her Agony.
(Not just for the painful hunt, but also because it kinda fits the corrosive fire-poison typing.)
Ahab got nothing on my White Lizard.
I watched your original unluckiest moments video like two days ago and was like „that was cool, i wish this dude made more of that”. Now calculate odds of THAT
A simpler way of setting up the probability - instead of using summation signs - would be to use a formula.
It should make intuitive sense: the probability of getting a shiny is 1/8192, so the probability of *not* getting a shiny is 1 - 1/8192, therefore, the probability of *not* getting a shiny in x encounters is (1 - 1/8192)^x, and so the probability of getting a shiny in x encounters is:
1 - (1 - 1/8192)^x
I told adef to put it in the video. Did it not make the final cut?!
I agree that this is a much simpler method of calculating the probability. I still love the video, but I feel like like this method really should've been included if adef truly wants this video to be a "bible" of sorts for considering probabilities in shiny-hunting.
fun fact: one definition of e^x is lim_{h -> infinity} (1 + x/h)^h, so
(1-1/8192)^8192 is an approximation of e^-1 (h=8192,x=-1)
so the chance to get a one in h event in h*k tries is roughly 1 - 1/(e^k), which for k=1 is the ~0.63 figure mentioned in the video to get a shiny within the first 8192 tries.
iirc the approximation is accurate to ±0.01 when h is around 100, and gets better as h increases.
Now we just need a video on "The math behind why adef looks like that one white guy"
Also great video adef keep it up :)
Hey, he's a handsome man
@@vampire_catgirlyeah thats what he said, he looks like that one white guy.
@@Gusser51 What?
I think Smallant's shinies only run is a great example for all cases, from extremely lucky to extremely unlucky
I'm a journalist and a statistician, and I applaud you for the clarity and accessibility of this explanation!
oh my god, calling in jimmypoopins was NOT on my bingo card
I was so shocked lol
I wrote a small mod for ruby/sapphire that forces re-rolling for shiny pokemon during a standard wild encounter. The that way it works is the game will temporarily softlock before it enters the wild battle while its rolling and checking and then re-rolling for shinys. This mod doesn't even guarantee a shiny though, i only have it rolling 65535 times before the loop breaks and proceeds with the last generated pokemon regardless of if its shiny or not. Because of this it can sometimes take 10+ minutes until it finally spits out a shiny. I could've made it roll for more than 65535 times but you would potentially have to wait even longer, and your gameboys battery might die before you can even see one.
Ah, that sounds like an interesting mod, even if shinies aren't completely guaranteed it still has a bit of a hunt that way.
And Nice pfp. Did you do it yourself?
A friend of mine is on an insane hunt to try and catch as many variations of Spinda as he can; there's about 4 billion patterns and he's been on the hunt since 2020.
So...he has about 60 years to keep going, even with a Discord community behind him 😂
Godspeed to your friend o7
23:38 Love the shade thrown at Dream
Thank you for taking all the time to make these videos. Please don’t stop 😂🤙🏻
You could stunt double for Hughie of Boys fame
JACK QUAID LMAOO
finally!Finally i found someone who noticed the similarities!
The sudden connection with Jimmypoopins was the biggest surprise of the video
About the odds of the 1/8192 chance happening within 8192 encounters being 63%, That number is significant! 1 - 1/e is about 63% For 1/x odds within x encounters, the result approaches 1 - 1/e as X -> infinity. So to win a 1 in a million lottery within 1 million tickets is also 63%
Rounded to 2 decimal places it's actually the same value
Interesting stjff
Well no cause you can make sure to get all of the specific numbers, right? If you were to randomise your ticket then yes some would be duplicates hence the 63%(Im not 100% sure how lottery works but I think it's like that, with a set numbers of possibilities) but if it work like the shiny odds (ex: 3/3000000, which is still 1/1000000) then my comment doesn't work...
I may be wrong tbh
This was the shiny hunting video I needed! (Mostly because I did not want to do the math myself. I'm glad I don't have probability theory anymore.)
Maybe an interesting thing to note is that all the numbers the XOR-operation creates are actually equally likely - like the roll of a die. So that your trainer ID and secret ID don't influence whether you are more likely to encounter a shiny or not, even though they are part of the generating process.
delightfully informative, mega props for being a gen 3 stan. you're right, aggron IS perfect.
I will never not be grateful to ArcNG for letting me walk away with a shiny Celebi in VC Crystal in less than 500 encounters. Praise be to its many hands.
I didn't record it, but I got a shiny Rotom in 2 encounters in Platinum once. Which was actually terrifying, as I wasn't intentionally shiny hunting it. I was simply trying to catch it, soft reset, and found a shiny. Then went into panic mode, as I only had about 15 balls, which was why I failed the initial catch. Thankfully, I caught it, one of my favorite shinnies ever! And proceeded to box it, and a decade on, never used it once.
Edit: My first ever shiny was luckier/unluckier. It was a shiny roaming Raikou in Silver. I didn't even know what shinnies were, I thought it had a lightning animation because it was a special Pokémon. Why else would a level 40 lighting cat spawn outside of the daycare? Of course it had a lightning animation. I never did catch it, and my batteries died not long after, as this was in 2006/2007.
In sword and shield they made the "he's been shiny hunting for a while, lets give him better odds" a real thing, the more encounters you do the higher your odds
But if you encounter a different mon, or “break your chain”, didn’t it reset your odds? Similar to the pokeradar in gen 4?
Doesn’t that only work on the glowing Pokemon that give you watts
The idea of the probability of probability makes me think of a quote from The Colour of Magic, which is something along the lines of “million-to-one chances tend to happen nine times out of ten, as the gods favor those the most”
I didn't count my soft resets but I found the shiny rayquaza I was after in Sapphire super quick.
1 console, full odds, it was definitely less than 1000 SR, maybe even less than 500.
I also got a shiny caterpie about 20 minutes into my playthrough of leaf green. I doubt I had even done 16 encounters in the game at all by that point.
16:59 HOW MANY MONTHS.
"Dr. Poopins notes will be very interesting, please read them when they pop in your screen"
Dr. Poopins: For my first note, I will speak chinese and write it in Scandinavian runes so everyone understands
I think the longest hunt (atleast that I know of) will allways be the shiny feebass by Reversal with MORE than 200.000 Encounters. This is the most legendary moment for me Ive seen
That doesn't count for this. Reversal got shinies at an average rate, he just had bad luck with phases.
stop talking about hunts with multiple phases
I learned for the first time about the crual, impartial but also fascinating and mentally rewarding nature of shiny hunt when I first heard about 40 cakes and his shiny hunting bot 24/7 stream in emerald. It's very interesting as it shows a complete interface to understand most of the numbers, paired with useful commands giving additional and general infos on the hunts.
I really recommend to give it a quick look for people who are interested in the whole "science" of shiny hunting, I never knew how it's a complete and unique side of the whole franchise, and why there are players who are so dedicated to it... It's very fascinating
Thanks for the recognition. It’s nice to see those who are still interested in us dinosaurs.
2:07 WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN MASON
If I don't see a shiny Sandshrew I won't be happy...
Can confirm not happy, but amazing video
Why shiny sandshrew?
@@PurpIe.Potatoprobably their favorite.
I've witnessed some insanely rare hunts in the full odds community so here's 3 examples you may not have seen!
MajesticPale - shiny golduck after 84,816
Shepard992 - Back to back shiny in gen 3
Kiyoshipoo - 2 Different shinies appear on 2 games on the same encounter
All of these shinies have been documented and are on TH-cam just search up their usernames! There's so many different ways you can be lucky too 💖
I got a 5 on the AP Statistics exam, and this video helped me better understand geometric probabilities. Different explanations than my teacher used that jived with my brain better. Thanks man!
The facial and voice expressions on that smeargle bit were perfect lmao. Also well done on the probability explanations
If you're looking for even faster hunts that have been recorded, I remember MandJTV's legendary reshiram hunt in ultra sun/moon (where the shiny odds are the raised 1/4096). He found it on encounter 1, with the chance of that being pretty obvious
The video is right here.
th-cam.com/video/3o7mvakEEsg/w-d-xo.html
Wasn't it right near literally right after landing a shiny Giratina too?
wait till he sees 40 cakes live stream
that damn seedot :D
Starting the example section with Dallas's Registeel earned you a sub lol
I was watching those streams -- easily my fav shiny hunter -- and that was one heck of a journey lol
I definitely didn't count the encounters because I never expected it to go on as long as it did, but I'm somewhere in the "unluckiest of all time" group mentioned in the comments: I started shiny hunting Mienfoo in the X Friend Safari + Masuda method-ing (so 2013-4?), continued in the Sword DLC + Masuda-methoding AGAIN, and finally caught one after I beat Violet. I spent about 1-2 hours a time hunting when I did, hunted at least 2-3 times per month (more after Violet released), and bred over 3,000 eggs. I also had the Shiny Charm every time.
My inability to find Mienfoo was a meme among my friend group and also called karma for hatching a shiny Stunfisk on the third egg. But yeah, I have him now and he's an absolute treasure. But somehow it didn't put me off of hunting forever and just made me love it more.
I do have very bad luck though. 7+ years for a damn Mienfoo.
Quick note about shiny odds in Pokémon emerald, they are actually determined by a different algorithm than the other games. To keep it short, they’re determined by the seed and the frames of the game when the encounter takes place, so at certain points it’s impossible to get a shiny on certain seeds (not a big deal for random encounters, but makes soft resets virtually impossible)
Shiny Collector has a great video explaining it.