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The problem with thinking Israel is like Bosnia is, I'm not too sure that any of the powers involved actually want war. Bosnia was just an excuse, everyone involved in WWI was roaring to go to war.
@@ElTigre12024 Zionism is part of a larger plan, that depends on the false impression that Palestine rightfully belongs to Yiddish speakers who calls themselves Jews, but have no claim by blood nor faith. It’s like everything, a fake narrative created by the state and media. Anyone who actually reads the Bible and believes it is the word of God, cannot take liberties with any word of scripture. Those ain’t Jews. Talmud isn’t scripture. It’s pagan traditions from Babylon. Kabbalah is witchcraft. Ashkenaz was not a Semite. So, once everyone is educated on this stuff, they can talk responsibly. Also, Armageddon is unstoppable. So, buckle up. The Torah is in the Bible, read it first yourself. Those are not Jews. “I know your afflictions and your poverty-yet you are rich! I know about the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan.” Revelation 2:9 NIV
As a British man I’ll die for my countrymen but not for my unelected incompetent government. We used to be country of morals, community, progress… I’ve witnessed such an awful regression. The government hates the native British person. We just want good jobs, safe cities, sense of community… we don’t want people that hate us, drain our resources, take away family values, make unaffordable to raise children of our own… it’s created an unsafe, hedonistic, materialistic society. All vices that most religions and philosophers have warned us about. It is sinfulness that history has warned us about.
I can't imagine there's much chance the UK will get seriously involved in any conflict unless an enemy turns up at Dover - the manufactured immigration of the last 20 years has resulted in a large percentage of the population who actively dislike our country and values, while also alienating the domestic population from any sense of community or shared desire to fight. Suffice to that if the government tried to enforce any sort of draft to bolster our laughably-understaffed armed forces then they would be laughed out of power at best..
Well, think of it this way. It's important, every so often, to be reminded that we have to fight for the things we take for granted. Don't despair, fight!
As a 22 year old American from the Midwest. I’m not dying for Israel, Taiwan, or any other foreign country especially for a country that hates me anyway
Good man, being midwestern you lads make up most of the fighting men. It's highly doubtful the us will ever be invaded, even with a seriously weakened military there are still the militias. A weak us world presence might give us a chance to like you yanks again.
Why would anyone in their right mind want to get involved in this never-ending morally void vendetta over a tiny scrap of land with no resources and very little strategic value.
As Iranian I often laugh when I see videos titling “Will Iran and Israel go to war”. You give 20% chance to it but it is probably around 5%, it is more likely Iran and Taliban go to war over water. Situation for Iranian regime is very bad, they fall to a point that they are throwing all their forces to police people and they are failing at it. There were several rallies in the world especially in the west to sympathize with Gaza, and yet there wasn’t any in Iran, the reason is that the regime tried multiple times and couldn’t even bring 10k to it. The regime itself is no longer a theocracy anymore, just recently a video came out of an official sleeping with a man and nothing happened to him because there wasn’t anybody to replace him. Instead the whistle blower was imprisoned. All these can also be considered as a reason for Islamic republic regime to initiate the war to unify people but they most likely won’t do that because they know they are old and themselves can’t go to war so they must draft young people and the moment they give a gun to them, they will definitely shoot them, even their own guards are starting to shoot them. So rest assured, if Israel or US don’t start a war the chance of Iran starting one is fairly low. At worst Iran will use its numerous proxy groups to hurt Israel or recruit Afghan refugees to do his dirty work.
Iran is trying to have a proxy war with Israel. All of their blathering and complaining about Israel for 40 years has achieved nothing. I so want the Iranians to be free of their Authoritarian government. I’ve met people from Iran in the states who fled during the revolution. They are absolutely wonderful people!!
Iran will use oil money for mercenaries from Afghanistan and Pakistan because there's a reliable amount of pashtun refugees. Pakistan evicted over a million pashtuns recently. Iran has a manpower of mercenaries if they're ever willing.
As Iranian living abroad, I would agree with your analysis to 80%. The average Iranian, regardless of being secular or religious is just tiered. If Iran declares war on anyone, it will break into several regional factions fighting amongst themselves. The Iranian ruling class know this that's why the fund externally to keep the war on foreign territory. Iran would never ever be the first to declare war because they will not be able to recruit enough manpower. If on the other hand Israel or America declares war first, we'll see a totally different story. 😊
Honestly, the Americans are not too far behind. A lot of people are tired of war here. If the Feds try to get another middle eastern war going, I expect to see factionalism.
I doubt there would be factions. We would just refuse to fight. There would be no point in destroying the country. Just because rich people want to go to war, it's An illogical thing to do@@imaxinsertnounherex
Lols OK, I know a few Iranians living in Iran and allot of the not living in Iran, None of them support the government. And hey, It wasn't Israel or America who made a video and put it on Iranian State TV nuking Israel and America.. It wasn't an American or Israeli leader who stood up on Iranian State TV and stated they were going to develop a nuclear weapon and nuke Big Satan and Little Satan... You kids just keep living in your little fantasy world.. Oh and that top secret base you built under the mountain to store your ICBMs, Fighter Jets etc.. Imagine whats going to happen when the tunnel entrances collapse from a few JDAMS
And a 180° turn on wokeness still wouldn't change the Health Problem. Trump _might_ make America patriotic again, but the Obesity is a long term issue.
@@Ribulose15diphosphat Maybe we can finally fix America's toxic food supply and completely backwards approach to nutrition by framing it as a strategic/national security issue. That seems to be the only thing the elites care about now.
I like to put on your videos while doing chores, because pondering global war and destruction is the only thing thats more depressing than doing chores.
Being a student of history and seeing the cycles that repeat over and over is not doomer, your just good at noticing stuff most people cant comprehend or have interest in.
I think deep down a lot of leftists know what they’re doing is bad, but are conditioned to throw buzzwords to discredit anything that threatens their narrative.
Regarding the point of 24:42 of "rallying around the flag": Interestingly enough, the Israel-Hamas war actually saw a huge decline in Bibi Netanyahu's popularity, even among his most reliable camps. The reason is that the public in Israel felt that the Hamas invasion could have been pushed back right away or completely prevented, unlike the 9/11 attacks that cough everyone by surprise. And even now after the offensive ground invasion started, Bibi's popularity is still below what it was before the war. Dues, going to war is not a magic trick to make the public rally around the flag. If the Biden administration will go to war, it will not rally the nation automaticlly. If anything, it will bring an even bigger wave of isolationism because of the sense of going to an unjust war. It will require a direct attack on the U.S to convince the public to rally around the flag, and not a war oversees. We are more resembling America during WW2 before the attack on Pearl Harbor, where there was very little public support to go to war overseas, but it changed dramatically after the attack.
I agree that it will take an attack on the homeland. Most of the knowledgeable people will know that it will be a false flag. For example if some Islamic extremist does some type of terrorism than immediately everyone will point the finger at the border being wide open. I just don’t see a war or attack bringing Americans together due to Americans being so skeptical now.
He estimated it only worked about 25% of the time, but in any event it isn’t what happened here. While Netanyahu was facing large internal opposition, he wasn’t facing a civil war, and a defeat of this magnitude couldn’t help but tag him as a failed leader even if it did bring about national unity. Indeed there is likely more national unity in Israel than before the attacks as shown by everyone being okay with a doomed politician like Netanyahu staying in power to take the international heat for Israel’s actions. If there was significant opposition to what was being done new elections would have been called so he could be replaced, but instead he’ll almost certainly stay in power until the actions in Gaza are over.
No it won't, if anything the 9/11 attacks is what started the distrust of the US Govt. You are more likely to get more people thinking it is a false flag made up by the government to get us into a foreign war (Gulf war, Iraq war, Afghanistan war comes to mind.) People don't even remember why we invaded Afghanistan to begin with 22 years ago.
signs are Putin is in same spot as you suggest Bibi... PBS documentary gave good short 30min spotlight backing your point why it was failure on Israel side, eg soldier staff were complaining for years breaking apart monitoring balloon systems and people were almost laughing and shrugging off watching training videos in Gaza tv of preparing that strike. Ukraine had partial similar thing that south was taken very fast but Kyiv people fought back to prevent total collapse of Zelenskyi government. George WH Bush is few presidents to manage that by very succesful operation in 1990 to beat Iraq Saddam's troops and had courage to settle there while criticized. Although that Pearl Harbor moment could be sort of manufactured by pushing via sanctions other country left with no choice but to act or government implodes anyway(US put sanctions on Japan before attack).
It’s important to realize most nations enter wars within a week of the first hostilities, usually due to an alliance pact or because the war exposed obvious vulnerabilities within one of the sides. If the conditions today didn’t provoke other nations to join, they won’t in the future.
Oppose the draft. Don't fight for Your slave masters. Don't waste Your only life for Ukraine, zionism or Taiwan. The enemy, who imports millions of foreigners to police and replace You, who makes owning a house and having a healthy family near impossible - they are here, in our countries.
the thing is even if they lend a honest hand the people will see it as another trap or fasl help. they lost trust and expect us to figure out what to do
motivation for war: 1) fight for God --> gone from scientific revolution in 1800s 2) fight for your tribe/race --> gone from ending adolf in 1940 3) fight for freedom --> gone from Iraq/Afghan war in 2000s --> you realize you are actually fighting for the military industrial complex/global homo 4) fight for your family?? --> 2020s - what family? men are inzels
Apparently, Israel has been publicly toying with flooding the Palestinian tunnels by pumping in sea water...which would eventually make the ground level litteraly collapse depending on how extensive the tunnel system is when it collapses.
Oh well, they started the war on October 7!! Their actions have consequences. I don’t even know what they thought they’d achieve by attacking those innocent civilians?!!
One thing to note with the comparison between a potential ww3 and ww1 is that the tensions for ww1 were there for a looooong time before they finally blew up. My great great grandfather left Germany for the US in time to fight for the US army in the Spanish American war, because he could tell that the war which would eventually be known as ww1 was going to happen, and he didn't wanna be in Germany when it did. The Spanish American War was in the 1890s, about 2 decades before ww1 broke out, and my great great grandfather was already able to tell for certain that it was going to happen eventually just from being a somewhat wealthy, informed German. Just because all the pieces are in place for ww3 doesn't mean it's going to happen yet, it could even take a few decades before those pieces finally fall down and start the war. And in 20 years, who knows if it will still be the middle east that's a big hot spot, although more realistically it probably will be, I don't think it's ever going to be stable after how much colonialism fucked it up and how much it has continued to get fucked up ever since.
Where as WW1/WW2 were Red vs Blue essentially, WW3 would seem like more to a bar brawl free-for-all. Everyone is out for themselves more than they are with forming tight coalitions that drag all their allies into a fight they can't get their young to partake in, whether that be from physical issues, mental issues, or just genuine lack of motivation to be involved in a war.
That's why I believe in the 30 years war scenario more. We are past the era of peace. Large regional conflicts are gonna be breaking out all over, and the US can't fight them all.
Well armed first world countries (especially the US and Israel) have learned you can never win against a local guerilla militia. Such conflicts can only go one of two ways. The foreign military gives up, or the foreign military goes scorched earth. Unfortunately, Israel can't win against hammy mass using conventional strategies. Homer mass only loses when they no longer have civilian support; either their hearts or their hands. Humming mass isn't going to lose the hearts of gazan civilians any time soon. So the only scenario where Israel wins is where they get rid of the hands.
The problem with an advanced nation fighting a less advanced one. Is that the advanced army tends to fight with its hands tied behind its back and beer googles on. This leads them to fail because they won't just outright destroy their opposition. This is a simplification. So keep that in mind
@dangosaurus they tried and failed. out side of nukes. they tried everything else. including toy land minds to wound children and slow the parents down.
@@katanabluejayyes ONLY a third... Russia goes gloves off Afghanistan would be a Russian parking lot today... same goes the US Coalition in the 2000s and the 19th century British Empire.
Getting ready to see how Israel will retaliate to Iran's response to Israel's attack. Four months after you made this video, BB is trying very hard to make the answer to this video a resounding yes.
@@the1necromancer If I had a TH-cam channel, I'd probably accept sponsorships too. I love money, and most of the audience just skips the sponsored bit anyway, so no big deal.
“They are hours in which decades happen” - Vladimir Lenin is a quote that oddly fits into many of our lives. For example there’s months where I’m not doing very much than what I regularly do and there’s days in which the next few months or years are completely changed, like leaving a school or signing up for a new program.
As a marine Corp combat veteran I know is one thing, war requires the power to deploy. Few countries in the world can deploy further than a border they share. There is no country interested in Israel that can deploy to Israel. Iran attempting to deploy to Israel would see those planes or ships destroyed long before they were close to Israeli borders. Egypt owns the Suez Canal and would not risk commeroc shipping avoiding using the canal losing Egypt massive revenues. Jordan is a vassal state of Israel and an Israel state security partner. Anything is possible, but current conditions drawn out into the future doesn’t have large powers being involved. Israel has capacity to reach its goals.
Jordan isn't a vassal state of Israel, it is a vassal state of America. Israel can't pull the strings, but if you have seen the footprint of the US in Jordan, including just the embassy which is one of the largest US embassies in the world, it is clear that America is what is propping up the King of Jordan.
@@HesderOleh geopolitical strategists Peter Zeihan identifies Jordan as a vassal state of Israel. A large embassy doesn’t mean anything. Israel financially supports Jordan. Now that money absolutely comes from the US, but Israel hands that money over to Jordan. Point is Jordan is not a threat to Israel
@@paperandmedals8316 Peter Zeihan is sometimes wrong. I have seen many specialists on youtube point to things that Zeihan has said and despite them considering his commentary to be accurate, that he is mistaken on some details in an area of their expertise. In this case he is wrong on the details. Any money coming via Israel is dwarfed in orders of magnitude by that coming from the USA directly. There are no Israeli military or Mossad crawling over every corner, but there are US military and CIA assets. What would you consider Lebanon a client state of Syria or Iran?
@@HesderOleh you’re trying to make my post yours. My point is a world war is not going to kick off because of this. I’ve read your other comments. You have a habit of chiming in to tell people they’re wrong. Don’t perpetuate the stereotype. Some people are on your side, but not most. You’re not helping yourself or your people by being the little shit who has to tell everyone they’re wrong. Only 2% of you in the US last I heard. Don’t make more enemies. Take care.
Your war of the 2020’s map is outdated now and I would suggest a new one. East Africa is particularly outdated as a lot of white countries near the coast are now light blue, while some of the more northerly blue countries have turned red. Also we now know a Latin American front is almost inevitable so you need the American continent too, and you have ukraine as white when it should be a dark blue country, while switzerland should realistically probably be light blue and tbh I would probably make afghanistan a yellow since the taliban will likely just be fighting a guerilla war against everyone. Eritrea should be light blue and somalia should probably be divided into light blue somaliland and yellow lower somalia
The big issue with Turchin is that the norm with data science is that you don't run a model back that far because the underlying model changes too much. You don't even run it back 20 years. It's a disturbing scenario, of course.
I used to think it was interesting and held validity but after my first semester in college as a history major I don’t. There is no way you can quantify the rise and fall of empires, and plus the generalizations that it makes can be seen to undermine the complexity and nuances of history. There are correlations of time periods and cycles, but correlation is not always causation, just because something happened over and over again in the past doesn’t mean that it will happen again this time, although it is plausible to say that it increases the chance. Excuse my treatise.
@@MLGDouglas I thought it was interesting and held validity having been a history major, but having dipped my fingers in data science, no longer consider it valid.
@@MLGDouglas I think it’s valid, but only to a certain extent. History is not just 1 cycle or formula. It’s thousands upon thousands of different cycles and formulas all acting both independently and dependently on each other. They simultaneously strengthen and hinder each other in different ways. Some cycles strengthen the advancement of other cycles while hindering or even reversing the other different cycles. We can map out a couple of cycles and formulas, but we can’t map them all out. And the moments the dots on those cycles and formulas intersect is when History is made.
I totally disagree that Russia is losing in Ukraine. The exact opposite is true. Russia has achieved their main objectives and are biding their time while incrementally moving forward. Ukraine is now crippled and on life support provided by the US.
Demographically Russia is fucked for the rest of the century. Sure, the big cities of St Petersburg and Moscow are still fine, but you can't have a pair of supercities running a continent-sized country for long before everything starts utterly falling apart.
I don’t understand how people see the Ukraine Russia war map and think “Russia is losing”, while we’re at it let’s account for all the nato and western aid plus the destruction of Nordstream into this equation.
Part of the issue with the analysis is that the percentage of people that could join the military in the U.S. is so wrongly calculated. You could fake someone who had some anxiety or lower level depression or is overweight but not uselessly so and whip them into shape to fight. The military has had the luxury of ultimate choice and so raised the bar ridiculously high. It's almost like playing possum on the world to make them miscalculate. Give 6 months of training and PT under solid guidance and it would all work out fine.
You make more $$$ working for chickfilet rather than being AN OFFICER. Let thag sink in. Now add recent people IN THE MILITARY posting tiktoks talking about leadership failures and chikfilet doesnt work on sunday. The military is any day your chain of command wants you. No amount of bearing and discipline ameliorates material incentive with a demoralized people.
I don't anticipate escalation because though global, or at least Islamic, opinion may be against Israel it comes down to her neighbors. Lebanon, and importantly there Hezbollah, are mostly staying out of it because of Lebanon's economic woes and Hezbollah not having recovered from its involvement in Syria. Syria as stated above likely won't intervene as it is trying to pick up the pieces from their horrendous civil war and are in no mood for another fight. Egypt has made peace with Israel since Sadat's days and the military government led by Sisi is unwilling to estrange the US especially when they need diplomatic support vis-à-vis Ethiopia's dam on the Nile. Jordan is for all intents and purposes an Israeli Client State at this point. Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Arabs, while they may protest in public still want to use Israel as a counter to Iranian influence and are unlikely to intervene, especially given their exhaustion with the war in Yemen, and while the Houthis may try and strike Israel their capabilities are limited. Iran might want to, but has immense internal problems, and is overstretched as it is maintaining it's influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and has no direct route to Israel and therefore must rely on Proxies who are, as stated with Hezbollah, exhausted after the Syrian Civil War. For now I anticipate most of Israel's neighbors adopting a "wait and see" approach hoping that Israel gets bloodied enough that they can force concessions.
As a Palestinian-Syrian, I am telling you Syria wouldnt dare attack Israel, else Israel would be in damascus not in 6 days but 6 hours 💀. Or worse case scenario Syria gets nuked but I doubt Israel would nuke them when they cant just take damascus really fast. I mean I despsie Israel and all but their strength in the 6 day war compared to now plus a weakened Syria shows us that Syria wouldnt mess with them I am not joking when I said that Damscus would fall in 6 hours. 56 years later 1/10th of the time thats their new record also I despise Iran just as much I despise Israel. Iran Prosecutes its Sunni Arab Minority and at time displaces them Israel does the same how does that make Iran my ally? Also they are Shia for allahs sake they are heretics while the Jews are the people of the book. My religious conservative father told me that he would perfer a Christian or a Jew over a Shia I agree with him. Since Christians and Jews are our Abrahahamic brothers following a different religion but with shared values also they dont claim anything from our religion which doesent make them heretics there even quranic verses praising christians while the Shias on the other hand with the insults of the prophets wife and his comapnions plus over-glorification of Ali with some shias like the (alawites in Syria who also rule it look at Bashar Al-assad) Worshipping him. Also I am pretty sure that a Arab Muslim would get more rights in Tel Aviv than in Ahvaz. Quite frankly I am glad that Iran and Israel are fighting to me its two enemies fighting exhausting each other.
Longtime listener, first time caller. So grateful that you make these videos! Your perspective is fascinating and while there have been times i struggle to agree, ive grown so much from the way you frame things. One topic not mentioned in this vid that I think is critical to either escalation/escalation is big tech. Quite understandably, big tech is driven by shareholder value so in a sense we've screwed ourselves, but the amount of subversion and extremism coming from echochambers help create revenue (more time on platform = more ad $) is ripping us apart - reducing empathy and hacking pack mentality. It hurts to see but it's so clear. I'm not sure there's a clear fix either as it's just a flaw of our existing political/monetary system. Observationally as someone not in the US, but in a five eyes country, wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't go for war in the middle east and Trump pledging he will (feeding into the big tech echo chamber) as a PR campaign tactic. Alternatively, I could also see the other happening (possibly more strategic for trump) given his existing base. Not supporting Israel if thigs escalate would ruin confidence in US allyship and possibly give China more of a reason to invade Taiwan (not that allyship justifies anyone of any country dying in war). Again, all thoughts based on no fact. What happens will happen, but it sure is fascinating to watch and guess. I really hope the dominoes don't start (or continue) to fall but there are so many variables that the incremental chance (particularly next year) will be a test that's for sure.
I love when Rudyard talks about civilizational cycles. It's not like a want a civil war or world war, but it's just so spot on that how can it not be true? Our society/world is set for a redo. That probably means war. What world do you want to have on the other side?
I would like to give my 2 cents on the situation, as someone who has lived in Israel for most of my life (immigrated here at the age of 5, 25 years ago). Israeli politics have been at a stalemate for the last, maybe 12 years or so. Israel has a multiple party system where there are 120 seats in parliament, and in order to form a government, several parties have to form a coalition of at least 61 MPs, where every X percent of the votes give you a seat. This system has been working really poorly to a point where we've had like 5 elections over 2 years because no party could form a coalition. The problem with the system stems from the way the votes usually divide. We have two large parties, one center left and one center right (Netanyahu's party), who politically are very similar, and could form a coalition but disagree on who should lead it, so they never do. Other than that, we have the Arab parties who take roughly 10-15 of the seats, but would never join a coalition, and some of their MPs even denouncing the state of Israel, the Haredi parties who are around 18 seats and growing, and the fringes who can't do anything on their own, but since without them you can't form a coalition, all of politics boil down to the major parties appeasing them so that they can stay in power. The Haredi are not far right or right wing at all. They are weird religious fundamentalists who are more akin to the American Amish than anything else in the modern west. The Haredi movement was formed as a reaction to the secularization and liberalization of Jews in the 19th century, and their entire goal is to keep members of their community from straying from the orthodoxy. They have their own schools, many of which don't teach basic skills like math or foreign languages. They are exempt from military draft and a large portion of thier men don't work, but study religious texts all of their lives. Because of their way of life, they are heavily reliant on state welfare, and 99.9% of Haredi politics is just trying to secure as much money for their community, while ignoring major issues such as economic issues, wars or anything really. At this point in time, Netanyahu has managed to form a very narrow coalition by heavily appeasing the far right (the religious zionists) and the Haredi, hence why it is a far right government, but because of how narrow the coalition is, the popular support for the current government is low.
You left out why the Hareidi switched their support to be exclusively on the Right, which is that the Right is pro national identity and pro tradition, while the left is anti to both and supports mass assimilation and forced secularization. It's really that you have two blocks: those who are Jewish above all else, called The Right. And those who see themselves more as Westerners than as Jews, called The Left. Even if the Likud leaders are sometimes really on the "Left", the party members and voters on the Right, so those politicians talk like right-wingers to get elected. However, defections do happen. Also the reason why Netanyahu has difficulty forming a coalition is because he's being boycotted by former coalition partners. They are doing it either due to personal ambition, or because Netanyahu is blocking them from implementing their deluded suicidal policies and they're desperate to get him out of the way so that they can implement the destruction of the state in the name of "peace".
If I understand you right, it sounds like a leader who appealed to both center left and center right voters could unite the nation fairly easily, if such a person were to appear.
Very few Americans in lower middle class dodged the draft. I was in the military, my genx son was an army ranger. The was the children of the upper class and elites who dodged. Same today: maximum wokeness comes from the Ivy League. I was a poor kid on welfare and I couldn’t afford college: the military paid for my education.
Surely you're not implying the sons of our dear elites are just common spoiled cowards, using their advanced education to spin a narrative of "resistance", to cover said cowardice.... That would be so homophobic/racist/sexist/transphobic/toxically masculine (pick one).....
Indeed, though still tough sell getting people to go die in the ditches again when they know for a fact their rulers will never need see one in their lives.
@@memyselfandi8544It’s unknown if this looming crisis will be the end times. If it doesn’t turn out that way and it’s at a different time, I can’t imagine how worse things could possibly get.
As a Christian, the point of Christ was to detach from worldy doctrines that force you to access God through a mediator. God needs no priest. Hence, Israel has no religious significance other than historical monuments. No amount of bloodshed will ever make desolate stone and sand worth it.
Rudyard, I have been here watching along for I don't even know how long. Years. At least three, probably more like five. No idea but I ALWAYS upvote. Never commented before but I have a request. When I watch your videos I do so with an active pause button because I read and observe and consider each individual pane. You often publish your maps and infographics without keys/colour coding or titles. I know your videos are both complex and time consuming to produce but could you please, PLEASE (and I say this respectfully and understand the paradigm) find something else to sacrifice for production time. Always loved your content but it's very frustrating. Lol. Thanks, mate.
@@RealLifeIronMan oh no, I love this channel and I *also* follow CGK lmaooooo... I just know not to cite here on public forums, unless I'm prepared to be canceled!
We haven’t passed an actual constitutionally mandated budget in 20 years. Congress has been passing a series of ‘continuing resolutions ‘ which allocate further spending, which is a complete abdication of Congress’ duty.
Towards the end he talks about that war, says russia lost while showing a map that contradicts that showing the land-bridge russia gained which was their goal and ukraine is never getting that land back. For someone that analyzes geo politics idk how he could get something so wrong
I follow the war in Ukraine closely. I don't understand how you can say Russia is losing the war? If one judges solely on the territory gained or loss by the Russians, I can understand how someone can think the war is a stalemate, but the Russians are not fighting for quick territorial gains. Since the peace talks fell apart in early 2022, Russia has been fighting to destroy the Ukrainian Army and its combat capability. The kill ratio heavily favors the Russians. Over a half-million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, and most of the weapons belonging to Ukraine and NATO have been destroyed. Ukraine is exhausted, running out of men to fight, out of weapons with nowhere to get more because US and NATO stocks have been depleted. Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Also, this has been trench warfare in the east where Ukraine has built up heavily fortified positions. It has taken time to crack this positions, but Russia has been doing it steadily. Once these are eliminated it will be a sprint to the Dnieper River for the Russians. You need to get your information about this war from better sources.
@@ypsawbones3646 They are run by a hostile foreign elite who only sees them as numbers to be squeezed in terms of tax and bodies to be fed to the meat grinder for their forever wars.
His analysis was pretty spot on, save for the Sunni’s. Hezbollah and Iran working in tandem. The Sunnis seem to be assist the US more so than Israel, but time will tell if they change their minds
Can’t wait for my cookie in the mail, man I love this channel I watch every video every post now and it keeps my attention and exceeds my expectations. Love your videos man
All forty minutes of this video basically says that Israel will not cause a third world war to break out, so the answer to the question in the title is NO.
More like israel wants one, but the current onditions of the rest of the world make it less likely for one to start as everyone has their own problems and a massive war will just lead to destruction
You should read 'Modern Times' by Paul Johnson. It really is incredible how hungry for war so much of the population of Europe was leading into WW1. I fear a similar hunger forming in certain states today.
That’s so rude 🤣 you should support the Kurds… we are cool and always help defeat terrorists, why not be cool with us, we are not religiously motivated, we have far more western values than most. The Kurdish area in Iraq is the safest place in that S show. And plus IM A FAN 🤣❤
I can see Israel being abandoned to ensure that a more important part of the world stays friendly to the US. The Middle East is not worth getting in the middle of a massive or several smaller wars with the current internal issues facing the US. Besides I would rather have to deal with a hostile power than Israel anyway, they are at least honest and easier to handle.
Youre delusional. 2/3 of biden governnent senate and congress are jews. There was no benefit of usa supporting israel to begin with. They will abandon everything but not israel.
Got your back on Pluribus! Your channel is needed in an age where the majority of people don’t want to tell the truth and an equal number of people don’t want to hear it
Theres a feeling ive had for a while that because of the US printing money and the inflationary nature of our economy (also printing of money all over during COVID) it was more important to keep markets high than anything else as it is THE sign of stability and success for a country. I have feel like as inflation is typically about 2% per year, and we have seen most prices increase by a whole number factor, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10 times more expensive than in 2019, within a few years, I feel like the inflation is a slow fuse on a length of time within which the society can function before the currency collapses. When inflation increases the fuse gets shorter, or burns quicker rather. I feel like we BORROWED the prosperity of future years and put them into 2020-23, maybe even 2009 forward as weve been in the largest bull market of all time since the 08 recession. I just wonder which years did we borrow, because the bill WILL come due. When will the next 2008 happen? And was our mitigatioj of 2008 just a postponement? With prices going up faster and faster I wonder if we may not be much closer to the years whove had their prosperity stolen. We have a debt to the future and its coming due...
Well in 2022 and 2023 we experienced all the biggest bank failures ever aside from the 2008 crisis. The money printing is likely just artificially keeping things afloat so it looks a little different than last time.
Current Israel is not WW1 Bosnia(which was a part of Serbia back than mind you) and the world today isn't Europe in the era leading up to WW1. The reason WW1 started was not because of Bosnia but because France wanted Alsace Lorraine back from Germany, after losing it(again) during the Franco-Prussian war. This shaped French diplomacy to be extremely war hungry and anti German. German-British politics during the time period were also very complicated, with both sides making making gross miscalculations which ended up with Britain abandoning Germany in favor of its historical rival: France, while also raising the war hunger in both British and German societies. Austrian society has also been war hungry in order to restore the glory of the Austrian Empire which is why the crisis in Sarajevo ultimately led to war, a war that would have remained local(Austria vs Serbia) if it wasn't for the above mentioned points, which allowed Austria to drag in Germany and Serbia to drag in France who dragged in Britain and Russia. Today you're trying to equate Germany to Iran and France to the US yet neither nation has a border with Israel nor each other. Moreover Iran is not a major power like Germany, France and Britain were at the time. Also there are massive anti war sentiments throughout the western world, and also in many non western countries(though their governments do seem to be war hungry, at least in the press). So no, the current situation is nothing like WW1. As for the 30 years war analogy, that's much closer, though again Israel isn't Germany and all the other parties don't have a border with it. It's much harder for the US, Russia or China to intervene in Israel than it was for France, Britain or Sweden to intervene in Germany. So while the political climate may be similar, the practicality of war just isn't there.
Me in 2022: "Whatifalthist makes the best history TH-cam videos, there won't be anything better." Me in 2023: "Whatifalthist is making even better history TH-cam videos, there won't be anything better."
I've binge-watched this channel in shifts. I don't do this for channels outside specific consistent quality and relevance. There IS greatness, at least on TH-cam across various subjects and genres. We're still a highly "factual" age, and it is a knack/trick to make these things interesting to non-autistics and obsessives. The present-tenseness "applied theory" aspect is really central to this here. Anyway, I highly recommend this so cheers.
Another fantastic video essay, as always Rudyard. For some reason it showed that I wasn’t subscribed to your channel any longer, although I know I have been for almost 2 years. Odd how TH-cam does that sometimes.
I don't disagree with your assessment of Iran mostly except for the Azerbaijan part of it. But that's because you wouldn't have looked too deeply into it. About the republic of Azerbaijan thing, as an iranian Azeri myself who has lived amongst the Azeris in Iran, while there is strong sense of brotherhood with the Republic of Azerbaijan Azeris and the fact that we want to reunification ourselves, the thing is that the Republic of Azerbaijan wants us (Iranian azeris) to join them and leave Iran, while us (Iranian Azeris) want the Republic of Azerbaijan to join us in Iran, mainly because us Iranian Azeris have more in common with the other Iranian groups in the country and the fact that our last two dynasties of Iran were of Azeri origins, plus all the political movements in Iran were highly influenced and mostly lead by the Azeri peoples in history. Even the current regime in power has alot of Azeri/half Azeri people (as much as we hate the government). Meanwhile the Azeris of the Republic of Azerbaijan under the Aliyev dynasty have done everything to distance themselves from their Iranian half of their roots and white washed history and their culture, much to the alienation of the Azeri and other Iranians in the country. Its to the point that the Aliyevs are met with distain in Iran, because of their very anti Iranian stance. I think if the Republic of Azerbaijan decides to Invade the ethnic Azeri parts of Iran, they will be met with bullets from the Iranian Azeris rather than their support. There has been precidence for this if we look at the Iran-Iraq war, where the Arabs in Khuzestan/Arabestan part of Iran while they do have sympathies and brotherhood with the Iraqi arabs, met Sadam Hussains army with resistance, when Sadam and the Americans thought this part of the country would meet him with open arms.
As a fellow Iranian Azeri, I do agree on what you said. There's a problem among the westerners that see Iran as a country with a majority Persian and some minority groups, yet it's not like that at all. Persians at most make 50% of Iran's population. If the Azeris(20%) and the Kurds(8-9%) were to be separated from Iran, then there will be no country called Iran anymore. And throughout history Iran has always been a multi-ethnic country and many of these ethnic groups are so similar that sometimes it's hard to make a distinction.
It's baffling how you say azeris in Iran want republic of Azerbaijan to join Iran(a country which has beenracistto turks and pretty much to all other ethnicities and is in a very bad economic situation). The idea seems very proposterous luke you're someone who has been to Iran for the past 20 years. But I do agree the boomers will mostly be opposed to such incursions even though the younger generations would mostly welcome Azerbaijani forces.
Israel only seems to go for that option if their homeland is being overrun. There's no way the Islamic republic can do that, much less their proxies. A war between Iran and Israel would be limited to missile and air strikes plus proxies attacking Israel while Israel would try to help the Iranian people topple the regime.
If the USA get involved in a major military conflict, I bet they will just do the same thing as the Russians: they will recruit among the convicts and ex-convicts in order to avoid calling for a draft. The USA prison population is by far the largest in the world, it is 90% male, only 7,3% of the USA prison population are foreigners, so it makes it a convenient "human resource" for recruiting people who could get sent to the carnage. Ex-convicts could also form an important "human resource" for that matter.
I don’t think that would be an option since it would be viewed as “inhumane” by the left and they, unlike the right, would violently push back in the cities. A draft would be a nonstarter because that would be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the right and push them into full scale revolt. I think that the option that would be used at first is private military contractors (PMCs for short) since they are paid at least triple what the military pays so you’ll have plenty of people to fill their ranks and you don’t have to worry about the flag draped caskets filling the news feeds. I also believe that as the war drags on the boomer leadership will make a horrible miscalculation and initiate the draft thinking that the American people would rally behind them like the WW2 generation before them did, but quickly realize that nobody on the left or the right will be want to be drafted by draft dodgers. I personally hope that doesn’t happen because that would be the final nudge needed to cause this country to descend into absolute madness
@@AmericanAdvancement well, deep down, the left would know that if convicts and ex-convicts are recruited yo go to war, it would lower the risk that the leftists would have to go to war themselves. They would view it as inhumane but having to go to a major war is too scary, most people would prefer someone else to go there instead.
Bro I can't imagine the amount of research you have done for your videos. I studied International Relations for years and you seem to know your way around everything Geopolitics. Bravo!
As an Iranian your analysis of current Persian politics as bafflingly bad, the regime is incredibly divided and in a panicked state as Khamenei has begun losig trust within his own government, his rival general Soleimani which he conceded to his death is one massive one, his own son has begun evacuating assets out of Iran and mullahs are leaving rapidly to protect themselves from the people, the Iranian people are being led by the monarchists in protests and the mullahs and religious elite are being hunted down o the streets, if the people suege into Tehran and overthrow the regime artesh would very much side with them, this regime is incredibly weak Also Azeri Iranians are probably the most nationislt pro Iranians you can find lmao, you seem to have no clue about how Persia is rn, If the Russian created azeri states attack i can assure you the first soldiers ready to fight them are the proud true azeris of Eran 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
This is the apex of the knowledge and awareness of pan-persian monarchist. People are making such good and mostly unbiased analyses and then there's clown who thinks an old corrupt man with no background of political career can lead a country against the islamic regime. Your prince can't even keep his own wife from cheating on him. How the hell is he gonna lead a revolution? So typical of your kind, delusional, illiterate, and infinitely stupid.
Get 50% off your first order of CookUnity meals - go to cookunity.com/whatif50 and use my code WHATIF50 at checkout to try them out for yourself! Thanks to CookUnity for sponsoring this video!
The comments section's gonna be juicy. Oy Vey!
Where did you get your "30 years war" mid-east map? 12:03
一边美国不要战争，一边中国也不要战争。所以正确答案是：不。不会第三个全地球战争。
Your questions are good but your method is questionable so your answers are shit.
Probably not unless Israel politicians or our neighbors (I am Israeli) do something incredibly stupid
The problem with thinking Israel is like Bosnia is, I'm not too sure that any of the powers involved actually want war. Bosnia was just an excuse, everyone involved in WWI was roaring to go to war.
World War I was planned out by western powers. People have no power. And very little information.
A very good point
I don’t think the “powers” involved want war but the ones fighting definitely do for their respective reasons.
I’ve heard reports that behind the scenes many Arab countries are happy Israel is dealing with Hamas. Who knows if that’s true though…..
@@ElTigre12024 Zionism is part of a larger plan, that depends on the false impression that Palestine rightfully belongs to Yiddish speakers who calls themselves Jews, but have no claim by blood nor faith. It’s like everything, a fake narrative created by the state and media. Anyone who actually reads the Bible and believes it is the word of God, cannot take liberties with any word of scripture. Those ain’t Jews. Talmud isn’t scripture. It’s pagan traditions from Babylon. Kabbalah is witchcraft. Ashkenaz was not a Semite. So, once everyone is educated on this stuff, they can talk responsibly. Also, Armageddon is unstoppable. So, buckle up. The Torah is in the Bible, read it first yourself. Those are not Jews.
“I know your afflictions and your poverty-yet you are rich! I know about the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan.”
Revelation 2:9 NIV
As a young, conservative Canadian, I can guarantee you I will never be willing to die on the other side of the world for "my" country.
Same here brother. From your friends to the South. Our homes are lost to us.
same here. Hi, from Toronto
Yep, no way am I putting my life on the line to line to pockets of the elites.
Old Boy🇨🇦, ditto.
"come on boys let's get it over with!"
"The Sarge is so vague."
As a British man I’ll die for my countrymen but not for my unelected incompetent government. We used to be country of morals, community, progress… I’ve witnessed such an awful regression. The government hates the native British person. We just want good jobs, safe cities, sense of community… we don’t want people that hate us, drain our resources, take away family values, make unaffordable to raise children of our own… it’s created an unsafe, hedonistic, materialistic society. All vices that most religions and philosophers have warned us about. It is sinfulness that history has warned us about.
Hopefully Farage takes over the conservatives after Labor destroys them in the next election. This Yankee is wishing you the best.
yea i understand
I can't imagine there's much chance the UK will get seriously involved in any conflict unless an enemy turns up at Dover - the manufactured immigration of the last 20 years has resulted in a large percentage of the population who actively dislike our country and values, while also alienating the domestic population from any sense of community or shared desire to fight. Suffice to that if the government tried to enforce any sort of draft to bolster our laughably-understaffed armed forces then they would be laughed out of power at best..
As an American, I will not die for my government but for my country and for my people.
Well, think of it this way. It's important, every so often, to be reminded that we have to fight for the things we take for granted. Don't despair, fight!
Who's here after Iran launched their drones and missiles?
Me bro
Same
Me as well.
me
Me
As a 22 year old American from the Midwest. I’m not dying for Israel, Taiwan, or any other foreign country especially for a country that hates me anyway
Based
Mashallah
Good man, being midwestern you lads make up most of the fighting men.
It's highly doubtful the us will ever be invaded, even with a seriously weakened military there are still the militias.
A weak us world presence might give us a chance to like you yanks again.
Idk if Israel hates you, but Israel is for sure using you. Specifically your tax dollars
Nobody hates you. Stop thinking like that
Why would anyone in their right mind want to get involved in this never-ending morally void vendetta over a tiny scrap of land with no resources and very little strategic value.
Because the 'Bible' said so...
- Christian Death Cult
Let them fight it out. I.e. let the jews have it...
There are a lot of religious fundamentalists who believe this is all key to the end of the world. Gotta build that third temple.
yep
Remember in the movie kingdom of heaven?
Balian: What is Jerusalem worth?
Saladin: Nothing....everything!
As Iranian I often laugh when I see videos titling “Will Iran and Israel go to war”. You give 20% chance to it but it is probably around 5%, it is more likely Iran and Taliban go to war over water.
Situation for Iranian regime is very bad, they fall to a point that they are throwing all their forces to police people and they are failing at it. There were several rallies in the world especially in the west to sympathize with Gaza, and yet there wasn’t any in Iran, the reason is that the regime tried multiple times and couldn’t even bring 10k to it. The regime itself is no longer a theocracy anymore, just recently a video came out of an official sleeping with a man and nothing happened to him because there wasn’t anybody to replace him. Instead the whistle blower was imprisoned.
All these can also be considered as a reason for Islamic republic regime to initiate the war to unify people but they most likely won’t do that because they know they are old and themselves can’t go to war so they must draft young people and the moment they give a gun to them, they will definitely shoot them, even their own guards are starting to shoot them.
So rest assured, if Israel or US don’t start a war the chance of Iran starting one is fairly low. At worst Iran will use its numerous proxy groups to hurt Israel or recruit Afghan refugees to do his dirty work.
spot on
This is my view as well. Iran is in no position to launch a war right now, at least not a war that will result in American intervention
Iran is trying to have a proxy war with Israel. All of their blathering and complaining about Israel for 40 years has achieved nothing. I so want the Iranians to be free of their Authoritarian government. I’ve met people from Iran in the states who fled during the revolution. They are absolutely wonderful people!!
@@laikanbarth yeah the Iranian people are pretty nice and chilled I visited there severely as a kid
Iran will use oil money for mercenaries from Afghanistan and Pakistan because there's a reliable amount of pashtun refugees.
Pakistan evicted over a million pashtuns recently. Iran has a manpower of mercenaries if they're ever willing.
As Iranian living abroad, I would agree with your analysis to 80%. The average Iranian, regardless of being secular or religious is just tiered. If Iran declares war on anyone, it will break into several regional factions fighting amongst themselves. The Iranian ruling class know this that's why the fund externally to keep the war on foreign territory. Iran would never ever be the first to declare war because they will not be able to recruit enough manpower. If on the other hand Israel or America declares war first, we'll see a totally different story. 😊
If it comes to a global war expect the lack of motivation to be countered with lots of conscription.
Honestly, the Americans are not too far behind. A lot of people are tired of war here. If the Feds try to get another middle eastern war going, I expect to see factionalism.
@@imaxinsertnounherexnah most people will do nothing. I'm just doing my job
I doubt there would be factions. We would just refuse to fight. There would be no point in destroying the country. Just because rich people want to go to war, it's An illogical thing to do@@imaxinsertnounherex
Lols OK, I know a few Iranians living in Iran and allot of the not living in Iran, None of them support the government. And hey, It wasn't Israel or America who made a video and put it on Iranian State TV nuking Israel and America.. It wasn't an American or Israeli leader who stood up on Iranian State TV and stated they were going to develop a nuclear weapon and nuke Big Satan and Little Satan... You kids just keep living in your little fantasy world.. Oh and that top secret base you built under the mountain to store your ICBMs, Fighter Jets etc.. Imagine whats going to happen when the tunnel entrances collapse from a few JDAMS
“They just couldn’t get men to die for wokeness”.
Absolutely spot on.
And a 180° turn on wokeness still wouldn't change the Health Problem. Trump _might_ make America patriotic again, but the Obesity is a long term issue.
@@Ribulose15diphosphat Maybe we can finally fix America's toxic food supply and completely backwards approach to nutrition by framing it as a strategic/national security issue. That seems to be the only thing the elites care about now.
@@Ribulose15diphosphat They would just make the training longer to account for that.
I like to put on your videos while doing chores, because pondering global war and destruction is the only thing thats more depressing than doing chores.
😂
Nothing like cooking some mashed potatoes, gravy and steak while listening to doomer videos
OnG
Same! I listen to it when I'm doing chores.
😂same here
I'm not dying for Israel.
You might have no choice in the matter...
@@wizzyno1566 There's always a choice - Jail is preferable to the draft, and if a nukes fly well that's a total game over anyways.
@@chico9805that's actually what I meant - we might all die for Israel.
This is scriptural. People are kept ignorant by society. CNN didn’t tell them, so they cannot wrap their minds around the idea of Armageddon.
You don't want to help our "best friend", who has done so much for us, like:
Being a student of history and seeing the cycles that repeat over and over is not doomer, your just good at noticing stuff most people cant comprehend or have interest in.
I know right the metahistory of hayden white is great and the books of Enzo Traverso explain a lot of whats i going on and will keep hapening
History does not repeat itself. But it does rhyme
It's just how history works. It's as normal to me as a cheese sandwich.
I think deep down a lot of leftists know what they’re doing is bad, but are conditioned to throw buzzwords to discredit anything that threatens their narrative.
Regarding the point of 24:42 of "rallying around the flag":
Interestingly enough, the Israel-Hamas war actually saw a huge decline in Bibi Netanyahu's popularity, even among his most reliable camps.
The reason is that the public in Israel felt that the Hamas invasion could have been pushed back right away or completely prevented, unlike the 9/11 attacks that cough everyone by surprise. And even now after the offensive ground invasion started, Bibi's popularity is still below what it was before the war. Dues, going to war is not a magic trick to make the public rally around the flag.
If the Biden administration will go to war, it will not rally the nation automaticlly. If anything, it will bring an even bigger wave of isolationism because of the sense of going to an unjust war.
It will require a direct attack on the U.S to convince the public to rally around the flag, and not a war oversees. We are more resembling America during WW2 before the attack on Pearl Harbor, where there was very little public support to go to war overseas, but it changed dramatically after the attack.
I agree that it will take an attack on the homeland. Most of the knowledgeable people will know that it will be a false flag. For example if some Islamic extremist does some type of terrorism than immediately everyone will point the finger at the border being wide open. I just don’t see a war or attack bringing Americans together due to Americans being so skeptical now.
He estimated it only worked about 25% of the time, but in any event it isn’t what happened here. While Netanyahu was facing large internal opposition, he wasn’t facing a civil war, and a defeat of this magnitude couldn’t help but tag him as a failed leader even if it did bring about national unity.
Indeed there is likely more national unity in Israel than before the attacks as shown by everyone being okay with a doomed politician like Netanyahu staying in power to take the international heat for Israel’s actions. If there was significant opposition to what was being done new elections would have been called so he could be replaced, but instead he’ll almost certainly stay in power until the actions in Gaza are over.
No it won't, if anything the 9/11 attacks is what started the distrust of the US Govt.
You are more likely to get more people thinking it is a false flag made up by the government to get us into a foreign war (Gulf war, Iraq war, Afghanistan war comes to mind.)
People don't even remember why we invaded Afghanistan to begin with 22 years ago.
signs are Putin is in same spot as you suggest Bibi... PBS documentary gave good short 30min spotlight backing your point why it was failure on Israel side, eg soldier staff were complaining for years breaking apart monitoring balloon systems and people were almost laughing and shrugging off watching training videos in Gaza tv of preparing that strike. Ukraine had partial similar thing that south was taken very fast but Kyiv people fought back to prevent total collapse of Zelenskyi government. George WH Bush is few presidents to manage that by very succesful operation in 1990 to beat Iraq Saddam's troops and had courage to settle there while criticized. Although that Pearl Harbor moment could be sort of manufactured by pushing via sanctions other country left with no choice but to act or government implodes anyway(US put sanctions on Japan before attack).
man, dont give them ideas but yes good analysis
This aged like red wine.
It’s important to realize most nations enter wars within a week of the first hostilities, usually due to an alliance pact or because the war exposed obvious vulnerabilities within one of the sides. If the conditions today didn’t provoke other nations to join, they won’t in the future.
Yeah I think that's a pretty good point
Oppose the draft.
Don't fight for Your slave masters.
Don't waste Your only life for Ukraine, zionism or Taiwan.
The enemy, who imports millions of foreigners to police and replace You, who makes owning a house and having a healthy family near impossible - they are here, in our countries.
And if the conditions change?
@@_Dovar_exactly right, I say fuck the government
If the countries actually cared about their people maybe the people would fight for them
Real
Nah, if said country is predominately Atheist and rife with the postmodernist influence of previous generations, they still wouldn't care.
the thing is even if they lend a honest hand the people will see it as another trap or fasl help. they lost trust and expect us to figure out what to do
70000 dollars per year might change someone's minds😂
motivation for war:
1) fight for God --> gone from scientific revolution in 1800s
2) fight for your tribe/race --> gone from ending adolf in 1940
3) fight for freedom --> gone from Iraq/Afghan war in 2000s --> you realize you are actually fighting for the military industrial complex/global homo
4) fight for your family?? --> 2020s - what family? men are inzels
Last time I was this early, Epstein was still under video surveillance in his cell.
Probably lives in Israel now.
Apparently, Israel has been publicly toying with flooding the Palestinian tunnels by pumping in sea water...which would eventually make the ground level litteraly collapse depending on how extensive the tunnel system is when it collapses.
They allready started lol. 3 days in now.
@@redbeard1891 wow
Maybe they shouldn't make tunnels?🤦
Oh well, they started the war on October 7!! Their actions have consequences. I don’t even know what they thought they’d achieve by attacking those innocent civilians?!!
they fucked around, now they're finding out@@laikanbarth
This aged very well... Always solid content mate
One thing to note with the comparison between a potential ww3 and ww1 is that the tensions for ww1 were there for a looooong time before they finally blew up. My great great grandfather left Germany for the US in time to fight for the US army in the Spanish American war, because he could tell that the war which would eventually be known as ww1 was going to happen, and he didn't wanna be in Germany when it did. The Spanish American War was in the 1890s, about 2 decades before ww1 broke out, and my great great grandfather was already able to tell for certain that it was going to happen eventually just from being a somewhat wealthy, informed German. Just because all the pieces are in place for ww3 doesn't mean it's going to happen yet, it could even take a few decades before those pieces finally fall down and start the war. And in 20 years, who knows if it will still be the middle east that's a big hot spot, although more realistically it probably will be, I don't think it's ever going to be stable after how much colonialism fucked it up and how much it has continued to get fucked up ever since.
Where as WW1/WW2 were Red vs Blue essentially, WW3 would seem like more to a bar brawl free-for-all. Everyone is out for themselves more than they are with forming tight coalitions that drag all their allies into a fight they can't get their young to partake in, whether that be from physical issues, mental issues, or just genuine lack of motivation to be involved in a war.
That's why I believe in the 30 years war scenario more. We are past the era of peace. Large regional conflicts are gonna be breaking out all over, and the US can't fight them all.
Not really. Heavily Jewish-controlled globalist nations vs nations that resist.
Interesting perspective. A "symphony of horror" is a good way to describe the situation the world faces constantly.
Well armed first world countries (especially the US and Israel) have learned you can never win against a local guerilla militia. Such conflicts can only go one of two ways. The foreign military gives up, or the foreign military goes scorched earth.
Unfortunately, Israel can't win against hammy mass using conventional strategies. Homer mass only loses when they no longer have civilian support; either their hearts or their hands. Humming mass isn't going to lose the hearts of gazan civilians any time soon. So the only scenario where Israel wins is where they get rid of the hands.
Great song title bro
@@RealLifeIronManAka children of holocaust will recreate it
or name for a death metal band@@Pabloignacioalvarez
2010s was a low key horror movie
2020s will be a faster paced action movie LOL
The problem with an advanced nation fighting a less advanced one. Is that the advanced army tends to fight with its hands tied behind its back and beer googles on. This leads them to fail because they won't just outright destroy their opposition. This is a simplification. So keep that in mind
Beer goggles always saves
The Soviets were not holding back in Afghanistan and still lost
@dangosaurus they tried and failed. out side of nukes. they tried everything else. including toy land minds to wound children and slow the parents down.
@dangosaurus They killed a third of Afghanistan's population, they practically did
@@katanabluejayyes ONLY a third... Russia goes gloves off Afghanistan would be a Russian parking lot today... same goes the US Coalition in the 2000s and the 19th century British Empire.
Getting ready to see how Israel will retaliate to Iran's response to Israel's attack. Four months after you made this video, BB is trying very hard to make the answer to this video a resounding yes.
Who’s watching this after Iran & Israel attacked each other?
Can you tell me what happened exactly?
me
@@tanimation7289 Basically, Israel attack the Iranian embassy in Syria so Iran backfired by firing hundreds of missiles at Israel
@@SuhbanIo I see.
Well that's not what happened is it? Didn't Israel attack first?
"control your own meals"
also order this box of totally unknown to you origin and be totally dependent on this weird new supplier for all your food!
😆
Dude's gotta make money somehow. Probably reading off a script anyway.
@@the1necromancer If I had a TH-cam channel, I'd probably accept sponsorships too. I love money, and most of the audience just skips the sponsored bit anyway, so no big deal.
@@the1necromancer Very valid, totally normal to advertise ofc. Just gotta keep people with *actual ideals* but maybe a little less judgment sharp.
I’ve been waiting for so long for this video! Happy holidays!! Hopefully cooler heads will prevail
Only if a couple major powers take the bait. But it's definitely possible.
One already has (Russia).
@@jwil4286 we are talking about real powers. i.e. china/usa
@@heyhoe168🔥
@@heyhoe168 and who’s to say China doesn’t make a fool of themselves with Taiwan
@@jwil4286 it did not yet. USA does 98% of Taiwan talking. It is a trap so obvious, even blind would see it.
“They are hours in which decades happen” - Vladimir Lenin is a quote that oddly fits into many of our lives. For example there’s months where I’m not doing very much than what I regularly do and there’s days in which the next few months or years are completely changed, like leaving a school or signing up for a new program.
who is watching in 2024 October 1st?
LOL half tempted to post WRONG on all the people making calls 9 months ago.
As a marine Corp combat veteran I know is one thing, war requires the power to deploy. Few countries in the world can deploy further than a border they share. There is no country interested in Israel that can deploy to Israel. Iran attempting to deploy to Israel would see those planes or ships destroyed long before they were close to Israeli borders. Egypt owns the Suez Canal and would not risk commeroc shipping avoiding using the canal losing Egypt massive revenues. Jordan is a vassal state of Israel and an Israel state security partner. Anything is possible, but current conditions drawn out into the future doesn’t have large powers being involved. Israel has capacity to reach its goals.
Jordan isn't a vassal state of Israel, it is a vassal state of America. Israel can't pull the strings, but if you have seen the footprint of the US in Jordan, including just the embassy which is one of the largest US embassies in the world, it is clear that America is what is propping up the King of Jordan.
@@HesderOleh geopolitical strategists Peter Zeihan identifies Jordan as a vassal state of Israel. A large embassy doesn’t mean anything. Israel financially supports Jordan. Now that money absolutely comes from the US, but Israel hands that money over to Jordan. Point is Jordan is not a threat to Israel
@@paperandmedals8316 Peter Zeihan is sometimes wrong. I have seen many specialists on youtube point to things that Zeihan has said and despite them considering his commentary to be accurate, that he is mistaken on some details in an area of their expertise. In this case he is wrong on the details. Any money coming via Israel is dwarfed in orders of magnitude by that coming from the USA directly. There are no Israeli military or Mossad crawling over every corner, but there are US military and CIA assets.
What would you consider Lebanon a client state of Syria or Iran?
@@HesderOleh you’re trying to make my post yours. My point is a world war is not going to kick off because of this. I’ve read your other comments. You have a habit of chiming in to tell people they’re wrong. Don’t perpetuate the stereotype. Some people are on your side, but not most. You’re not helping yourself or your people by being the little shit who has to tell everyone they’re wrong. Only 2% of you in the US last I heard. Don’t make more enemies. Take care.
Jordan is in no way an Israeli proxy, both are under USA's umbrella though
Your war of the 2020’s map is outdated now and I would suggest a new one. East Africa is particularly outdated as a lot of white countries near the coast are now light blue, while some of the more northerly blue countries have turned red. Also we now know a Latin American front is almost inevitable so you need the American continent too, and you have ukraine as white when it should be a dark blue country, while switzerland should realistically probably be light blue and tbh I would probably make afghanistan a yellow since the taliban will likely just be fighting a guerilla war against everyone. Eritrea should be light blue and somalia should probably be divided into light blue somaliland and yellow lower somalia
Who in Latin America?
@@1mol831 Venezuela and Guyana.
@@1mol831 well the American mexico invasion and also the venezuela guyana invasion
Georgia should definitely be light blue
The big issue with Turchin is that the norm with data science is that you don't run a model back that far because the underlying model changes too much. You don't even run it back 20 years. It's a disturbing scenario, of course.
I used to think it was interesting and held validity but after my first semester in college as a history major I don’t. There is no way you can quantify the rise and fall of empires, and plus the generalizations that it makes can be seen to undermine the complexity and nuances of history. There are correlations of time periods and cycles, but correlation is not always causation, just because something happened over and over again in the past doesn’t mean that it will happen again this time, although it is plausible to say that it increases the chance.
Excuse my treatise.
@@MLGDouglas I thought it was interesting and held validity having been a history major, but having dipped my fingers in data science, no longer consider it valid.
@@MLGDouglas I think it’s valid, but only to a certain extent.
History is not just 1 cycle or formula.
It’s thousands upon thousands of different cycles and formulas all acting both independently and dependently on each other. They simultaneously strengthen and hinder each other in different ways. Some cycles strengthen the advancement of other cycles while hindering or even reversing the other different cycles.
We can map out a couple of cycles and formulas, but we can’t map them all out.
And the moments the dots on those cycles and formulas intersect is when History is made.
@@Kaiserboo1871 Well Said!
@@Kaiserboo1871 as Mark Twain put it, history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme
I totally disagree that Russia is losing in Ukraine. The exact opposite is true. Russia has achieved their main objectives and are biding their time while incrementally moving forward. Ukraine is now crippled and on life support provided by the US.
Demographically Russia is fucked for the rest of the century. Sure, the big cities of St Petersburg and Moscow are still fine, but you can't have a pair of supercities running a continent-sized country for long before everything starts utterly falling apart.
The war would have already ended if Russia had achieved its objects.
9 months later, and we have invaded part of Russia and are still kicking.
@@michaelwarenycia7588 dude look at the map.
I don’t understand how people see the Ukraine Russia war map and think “Russia is losing”, while we’re at it let’s account for all the nato and western aid plus the destruction of Nordstream into this equation.
Part of the issue with the analysis is that the percentage of people that could join the military in the U.S. is so wrongly calculated. You could fake someone who had some anxiety or lower level depression or is overweight but not uselessly so and whip them into shape to fight. The military has had the luxury of ultimate choice and so raised the bar ridiculously high. It's almost like playing possum on the world to make them miscalculate. Give 6 months of training and PT under solid guidance and it would all work out fine.
You make more $$$ working for chickfilet rather than being AN OFFICER. Let thag sink in. Now add recent people IN THE MILITARY posting tiktoks talking about leadership failures and chikfilet doesnt work on sunday. The military is any day your chain of command wants you.
No amount of bearing and discipline ameliorates material incentive with a demoralized people.
@@alextrebek5237its funny that you think conscription gives a shit about moral.
I don't anticipate escalation because though global, or at least Islamic, opinion may be against Israel it comes down to her neighbors.
Lebanon, and importantly there Hezbollah, are mostly staying out of it because of Lebanon's economic woes and Hezbollah not having recovered from its involvement in Syria.
Syria as stated above likely won't intervene as it is trying to pick up the pieces from their horrendous civil war and are in no mood for another fight.
Egypt has made peace with Israel since Sadat's days and the military government led by Sisi is unwilling to estrange the US especially when they need diplomatic support vis-à-vis Ethiopia's dam on the Nile.
Jordan is for all intents and purposes an Israeli Client State at this point.
Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Arabs, while they may protest in public still want to use Israel as a counter to Iranian influence and are unlikely to intervene, especially given their exhaustion with the war in Yemen, and while the Houthis may try and strike Israel their capabilities are limited.
Iran might want to, but has immense internal problems, and is overstretched as it is maintaining it's influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and has no direct route to Israel and therefore must rely on Proxies who are, as stated with Hezbollah, exhausted after the Syrian Civil War.
For now I anticipate most of Israel's neighbors adopting a "wait and see" approach hoping that Israel gets bloodied enough that they can force concessions.
As a Palestinian-Syrian, I am telling you Syria wouldnt dare attack Israel, else Israel would be in damascus not in 6 days but 6 hours 💀. Or worse case scenario Syria gets nuked but I doubt Israel would nuke them when they cant just take damascus really fast. I mean I despsie Israel and all but their strength in the 6 day war compared to now plus a weakened Syria shows us that Syria wouldnt mess with them I am not joking when I said that Damscus would fall in 6 hours. 56 years later 1/10th of the time thats their new record also I despise Iran just as much I despise Israel. Iran Prosecutes its Sunni Arab Minority and at time displaces them Israel does the same how does that make Iran my ally? Also they are Shia for allahs sake they are heretics while the Jews are the people of the book. My religious conservative father told me that he would perfer a Christian or a Jew over a Shia I agree with him. Since Christians and Jews are our Abrahahamic brothers following a different religion but with shared values also they dont claim anything from our religion which doesent make them heretics there even quranic verses praising christians while the Shias on the other hand with the insults of the prophets wife and his comapnions plus over-glorification of Ali with some shias like the (alawites in Syria who also rule it look at Bashar Al-assad) Worshipping him. Also I am pretty sure that a Arab Muslim would get more rights in Tel Aviv than in Ahvaz. Quite frankly I am glad that Iran and Israel are fighting to me its two enemies fighting exhausting each other.
Go join the IDF.
"a shit ton of dynamite laying everywhere and people walking around dropping matches" I am stealing that!
I almost thought I made it through a WhatifAltHist video without an editing hickup, thank god I stuck around till the very end
24:38 George H W Bush?
I don’t mind editing hiccups I just want the videos to be produced faster then once every month and a half
LMAO
Longtime listener, first time caller. So grateful that you make these videos! Your perspective is fascinating and while there have been times i struggle to agree, ive grown so much from the way you frame things. One topic not mentioned in this vid that I think is critical to either escalation/escalation is big tech.
Quite understandably, big tech is driven by shareholder value so in a sense we've screwed ourselves, but the amount of subversion and extremism coming from echochambers help create revenue (more time on platform = more ad $) is ripping us apart - reducing empathy and hacking pack mentality. It hurts to see but it's so clear. I'm not sure there's a clear fix either as it's just a flaw of our existing political/monetary system.
Observationally as someone not in the US, but in a five eyes country, wouldn't be surprised if Biden doesn't go for war in the middle east and Trump pledging he will (feeding into the big tech echo chamber) as a PR campaign tactic. Alternatively, I could also see the other happening (possibly more strategic for trump) given his existing base. Not supporting Israel if thigs escalate would ruin confidence in US allyship and possibly give China more of a reason to invade Taiwan (not that allyship justifies anyone of any country dying in war).
Again, all thoughts based on no fact. What happens will happen, but it sure is fascinating to watch and guess. I really hope the dominoes don't start (or continue) to fall but there are so many variables that the incremental chance (particularly next year) will be a test that's for sure.
I love when Rudyard talks about civilizational cycles. It's not like a want a civil war or world war, but it's just so spot on that how can it not be true? Our society/world is set for a redo. That probably means war. What world do you want to have on the other side?
Whatifalthist, you might as well start to publish a book series on geopolitics and cultural history with all of your references lol.
^^ Thats a Great Idea!!!
I would like to give my 2 cents on the situation, as someone who has lived in Israel for most of my life (immigrated here at the age of 5, 25 years ago).
Israeli politics have been at a stalemate for the last, maybe 12 years or so. Israel has a multiple party system where there are 120 seats in parliament, and in order to form a government, several parties have to form a coalition of at least 61 MPs, where every X percent of the votes give you a seat.
This system has been working really poorly to a point where we've had like 5 elections over 2 years because no party could form a coalition.
The problem with the system stems from the way the votes usually divide. We have two large parties, one center left and one center right (Netanyahu's party), who politically are very similar, and could form a coalition but disagree on who should lead it, so they never do. Other than that, we have the Arab parties who take roughly 10-15 of the seats, but would never join a coalition, and some of their MPs even denouncing the state of Israel, the Haredi parties who are around 18 seats and growing, and the fringes who can't do anything on their own, but since without them you can't form a coalition, all of politics boil down to the major parties appeasing them so that they can stay in power.
The Haredi are not far right or right wing at all. They are weird religious fundamentalists who are more akin to the American Amish than anything else in the modern west. The Haredi movement was formed as a reaction to the secularization and liberalization of Jews in the 19th century, and their entire goal is to keep members of their community from straying from the orthodoxy. They have their own schools, many of which don't teach basic skills like math or foreign languages. They are exempt from military draft and a large portion of thier men don't work, but study religious texts all of their lives. Because of their way of life, they are heavily reliant on state welfare, and 99.9% of Haredi politics is just trying to secure as much money for their community, while ignoring major issues such as economic issues, wars or anything really.
At this point in time, Netanyahu has managed to form a very narrow coalition by heavily appeasing the far right (the religious zionists) and the Haredi, hence why it is a far right government, but because of how narrow the coalition is, the popular support for the current government is low.
Great explanation!
You left out why the Hareidi switched their support to be exclusively on the Right, which is that the Right is pro national identity and pro tradition, while the left is anti to both and supports mass assimilation and forced secularization.
It's really that you have two blocks: those who are Jewish above all else, called The Right. And those who see themselves more as Westerners than as Jews, called The Left.
Even if the Likud leaders are sometimes really on the "Left", the party members and voters on the Right, so those politicians talk like right-wingers to get elected. However, defections do happen.
Also the reason why Netanyahu has difficulty forming a coalition is because he's being boycotted by former coalition partners. They are doing it either due to personal ambition, or because Netanyahu is blocking them from implementing their deluded suicidal policies and they're desperate to get him out of the way so that they can implement the destruction of the state in the name of "peace".
If I understand you right, it sounds like a leader who appealed to both center left and center right voters could unite the nation fairly easily, if such a person were to appear.
@@DavidDHorstman I think Beni Gantz fits that description well enough
@@FarberBob678 For sure, he looks like a good guy.
Very few Americans in lower middle class dodged the draft. I was in the military, my genx son was an army ranger.
The was the children of the upper class and elites who dodged. Same today: maximum wokeness comes from the Ivy League.
I was a poor kid on welfare and I couldn’t afford college: the military paid for my education.
Fun fact: the original objectors of the Vietnam war were clean cut christian men. The CIA then used the hippy psyop to discredit antiwar sentiment
Surely you're not implying the sons of our dear elites are just common spoiled cowards, using their advanced education to spin a narrative of "resistance", to cover said cowardice.... That would be so homophobic/racist/sexist/transphobic/toxically masculine (pick one).....
Indeed, though still tough sell getting people to go die in the ditches again when they know for a fact their rulers will never need see one in their lives.
My generation will not die for Israel or Zionist occupation government in Washington
I’m lower middle class. I still refuse to fight and they’re not going to make me lmaooo
Thank you for your analysis.
The Aldemari Dominion is using the Empire like a magic golem to crush their opponents.
It’s more likely that the conflict in Ukraine or one in Taiwan will.
I don’t think so. Jerusalem is the end game. Temple Mount. The Antichrist.
@@memyselfandi8544you are welcome to go delete yourself for your extremist fundamentalist cause, just dont drag us all with your delusions
@@memyselfandi8544retarded take
@@memyselfandi8544It’s unknown if this looming crisis will be the end times. If it doesn’t turn out that way and it’s at a different time, I can’t imagine how worse things could possibly get.
@@memyselfandi8544 self-fulfiling propechy.
As a Christian, the point of Christ was to detach from worldy doctrines that force you to access God through a mediator. God needs no priest. Hence, Israel has no religious significance other than historical monuments. No amount of bloodshed will ever make desolate stone and sand worth it.
100%. No such thing as the Holy Land. We are made in God's image, we are the Holy Land.
Rudyard, I have been here watching along for I don't even know how long. Years. At least three, probably more like five. No idea but I ALWAYS upvote.
Never commented before but I have a request.
When I watch your videos I do so with an active pause button because I read and observe and consider each individual pane.
You often publish your maps and infographics without keys/colour coding or titles.
I know your videos are both complex and time consuming to produce but could you please, PLEASE (and I say this respectfully and understand the paradigm) find something else to sacrifice for production time.
Always loved your content but it's very frustrating. Lol.
Thanks, mate.
Balian: What is Jerusalem worth?
Saladin: Nothing.......everything!
Dude has a crystal ball.
Absolutely wild that you'd cite CatGirlKulak in public 😂 you're DEFINITELY gonna need that cancelation insurance!
I take it you are not a fan of this channel?
@@RealLifeIronMan oh no, I love this channel and I *also* follow CGK lmaooooo... I just know not to cite here on public forums, unless I'm prepared to be canceled!
@@hugoguzman4985but why? What's wrong with her channel? (I'm curious enough to ask, but not curious enough to check it out for myself.)
Ok so who is she
It's great seeing you back. That was worried you had an accident. Worth the wait!
You should do an yearly Bingo card, and then review it by the end of the year, and present the next one
I was looking for this video for quite some time
We haven’t passed an actual constitutionally mandated budget in 20 years. Congress has been passing a series of ‘continuing resolutions ‘ which allocate further spending, which is a complete abdication of Congress’ duty.
Whoaaaa hold on, you really think russia lost the ukraine war?! You are very wrong on this and that alone discredits all your other analysis
Seriously what 🤣
He said that? Where?
Towards the end he talks about that war, says russia lost while showing a map that contradicts that showing the land-bridge russia gained which was their goal and ukraine is never getting that land back. For someone that analyzes geo politics idk how he could get something so wrong
@@genzu1111 wow. yeah that’s bizarre.
He's a Jew tool. Whenever you hear his fake chuckle you know he's trying to mislead you.
Yeah just gloss over the part about the lobbyists and "American" elites
The man said Ukraine won the Russian war, there’s clearly a Bias here.
I follow the war in Ukraine closely. I don't understand how you can say Russia is losing the war? If one judges solely on the territory gained or loss by the Russians, I can understand how someone can think the war is a stalemate, but the Russians are not fighting for quick territorial gains. Since the peace talks fell apart in early 2022, Russia has been fighting to destroy the Ukrainian Army and its combat capability. The kill ratio heavily favors the Russians. Over a half-million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, and most of the weapons belonging to Ukraine and NATO have been destroyed. Ukraine is exhausted, running out of men to fight, out of weapons with nowhere to get more because US and NATO stocks have been depleted. Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. Also, this has been trench warfare in the east where Ukraine has built up heavily fortified positions. It has taken time to crack this positions, but Russia has been doing it steadily. Once these are eliminated it will be a sprint to the Dnieper River for the Russians.
You need to get your information about this war from better sources.
God bless you and your work sir. I admire your passion and dedication. Respect from Croatia-Europe 💜💜💜💙💙💙
Surprisingly I agreed with this far more than I expected to.
For a supporter of the American Global Empire, at least you're honest about who runs it.
Well he is American
Why would not support his empire
@@ypsawbones3646 Usually the first victims of empires are their own citizens
@@MrStickyMouse
But the first beneficiaries as well
They are the first to take the hit when the empire falls making it a good incentive to not fall
@@ypsawbones3646 They are run by a hostile foreign elite who only sees them as numbers to be squeezed in terms of tax and bodies to be fed to the meat grinder for their forever wars.
All the while they are demographically replacing us.
Won’t be surprised if it does.
Glad to see alot of ur maps and lists are now in HD 😂❤
21:07 this just proves the die roll theory correct. Lord have mercy
His analysis was pretty spot on, save for the Sunni’s. Hezbollah and Iran working in tandem. The Sunnis seem to be assist the US more so than Israel, but time will tell if they change their minds
Excellent and Outstanding Analysis!!! Thank You!!!
As a Young conservative Israeli Jew, I love your channel
I like both Israel and Syria. I don't like Hamas because they are against Assad.
"Russia will lose"
Didnt a US senator just admit they never expected Ukraine to win?
You need to throw the narrative the occasional bone if you want to be allowed to remain up and monetized.
Rome comparison is over used.
Modern USA politics is more similar to 1930s Spain.
Difference is that America is a grey power meanwhile Spain was irrelevant and still mostly os
Can’t wait for my cookie in the mail, man I love this channel I watch every video every post now and it keeps my attention and exceeds my expectations. Love your videos man
Tell me if it's a raisin cookie. Those ones don't count
As an American, I actively make fun of anyone who joins the military out of a sense of patriotism.
Patriotism for what? Buttsex and Israel?
All forty minutes of this video basically says that Israel will not cause a third world war to break out, so the answer to the question in the title is NO.
More like israel wants one, but the current onditions of the rest of the world make it less likely for one to start as everyone has their own problems and a massive war will just lead to destruction
You should read 'Modern Times' by Paul Johnson. It really is incredible how hungry for war so much of the population of Europe was leading into WW1. I fear a similar hunger forming in certain states today.
Pretty sure he’s read it
Western leftists who don't want to die for Israel sure sing a different tune with Ukraine.
That’s so rude 🤣 you should support the Kurds… we are cool and always help defeat terrorists, why not be cool with us, we are not religiously motivated, we have far more western values than most. The Kurdish area in Iraq is the safest place in that S show. And plus IM A FAN 🤣❤
Love the Kurds!!! 🙏🙏🙏
Short answer……yes!
Your intro makes me feel like I'm dodging cliffs with my jet in the 80s don't ever change it!
15:40 Wait... is this why the New York tunnels were sealed when discovered?
I can see Israel being abandoned to ensure that a more important part of the world stays friendly to the US. The Middle East is not worth getting in the middle of a massive or several smaller wars with the current internal issues facing the US. Besides I would rather have to deal with a hostile power than Israel anyway, they are at least honest and easier to handle.
Honest.. ....
Yep, US just can't afford to lose soft power in Europe.
So technically it makes sense for them to abandon Middle East campaign but rn they ain't
Youre delusional. 2/3 of biden governnent senate and congress are jews. There was no benefit of usa supporting israel to begin with. They will abandon everything but not israel.
Alright, I'll be expecting my cookie here in a few days. I like snickerdoodles the most!
God bless you and your work sir 💜💜💜
Got your back on Pluribus! Your channel is needed in an age where the majority of people don’t want to tell the truth and an equal number of people don’t want to hear it
Theres a feeling ive had for a while that because of the US printing money and the inflationary nature of our economy (also printing of money all over during COVID) it was more important to keep markets high than anything else as it is THE sign of stability and success for a country. I have feel like as inflation is typically about 2% per year, and we have seen most prices increase by a whole number factor, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10 times more expensive than in 2019, within a few years, I feel like the inflation is a slow fuse on a length of time within which the society can function before the currency collapses. When inflation increases the fuse gets shorter, or burns quicker rather. I feel like we BORROWED the prosperity of future years and put them into 2020-23, maybe even 2009 forward as weve been in the largest bull market of all time since the 08 recession.
I just wonder which years did we borrow, because the bill WILL come due. When will the next 2008 happen? And was our mitigatioj of 2008 just a postponement? With prices going up faster and faster I wonder if we may not be much closer to the years whove had their prosperity stolen. We have a debt to the future and its coming due...
Well in 2022 and 2023 we experienced all the biggest bank failures ever aside from the 2008 crisis. The money printing is likely just artificially keeping things afloat so it looks a little different than last time.
Current Israel is not WW1 Bosnia(which was a part of Serbia back than mind you) and the world today isn't Europe in the era leading up to WW1. The reason WW1 started was not because of Bosnia but because France wanted Alsace Lorraine back from Germany, after losing it(again) during the Franco-Prussian war. This shaped French diplomacy to be extremely war hungry and anti German. German-British politics during the time period were also very complicated, with both sides making making gross miscalculations which ended up with Britain abandoning Germany in favor of its historical rival: France, while also raising the war hunger in both British and German societies. Austrian society has also been war hungry in order to restore the glory of the Austrian Empire which is why the crisis in Sarajevo ultimately led to war, a war that would have remained local(Austria vs Serbia) if it wasn't for the above mentioned points, which allowed Austria to drag in Germany and Serbia to drag in France who dragged in Britain and Russia.
Today you're trying to equate Germany to Iran and France to the US yet neither nation has a border with Israel nor each other. Moreover Iran is not a major power like Germany, France and Britain were at the time. Also there are massive anti war sentiments throughout the western world, and also in many non western countries(though their governments do seem to be war hungry, at least in the press). So no, the current situation is nothing like WW1. As for the 30 years war analogy, that's much closer, though again Israel isn't Germany and all the other parties don't have a border with it. It's much harder for the US, Russia or China to intervene in Israel than it was for France, Britain or Sweden to intervene in Germany. So while the political climate may be similar, the practicality of war just isn't there.
Me in 2022: "Whatifalthist makes the best history TH-cam videos, there won't be anything better."
Me in 2023: "Whatifalthist is making even better history TH-cam videos, there won't be anything better."
Me in 2025: "Everything in Whatifalthist's videos came true. Now I live in a cave with my AK 47 and a mangy dog."
me in 2060: that whatifalthis guy had some good content late at night sock child Jimmy, there was no other gen z like him.
Thank you
I've binge-watched this channel in shifts. I don't do this for channels outside specific consistent quality and relevance. There IS greatness, at least on TH-cam across various subjects and genres. We're still a highly "factual" age, and it is a knack/trick to make these things interesting to non-autistics and obsessives. The present-tenseness "applied theory" aspect is really central to this here. Anyway, I highly recommend this so cheers.
Your analysis and videos are great.. agree with you on most topics I just totally disagree regarding Russia… keep up the great work
Life is hard but, watching my favorite TH-camr, just in time for a steak and a godfather I made myself on a Saturday night, it ain't so bad.
The Earth is a beautiful garden, and Israel a bitter weed..
Thanks for lending your expertise, fella!!
Another fantastic video essay, as always Rudyard.
For some reason it showed that I wasn’t subscribed to your channel any longer, although I know I have been for almost 2 years. Odd how TH-cam does that sometimes.
I don't disagree with your assessment of Iran mostly except for the Azerbaijan part of it. But that's because you wouldn't have looked too deeply into it.
About the republic of Azerbaijan thing, as an iranian Azeri myself who has lived amongst the Azeris in Iran, while there is strong sense of brotherhood with the Republic of Azerbaijan Azeris and the fact that we want to reunification ourselves, the thing is that the Republic of Azerbaijan wants us (Iranian azeris) to join them and leave Iran, while us (Iranian Azeris) want the Republic of Azerbaijan to join us in Iran, mainly because us Iranian Azeris have more in common with the other Iranian groups in the country and the fact that our last two dynasties of Iran were of Azeri origins, plus all the political movements in Iran were highly influenced and mostly lead by the Azeri peoples in history. Even the current regime in power has alot of Azeri/half Azeri people (as much as we hate the government).
Meanwhile the Azeris of the Republic of Azerbaijan under the Aliyev dynasty have done everything to distance themselves from their Iranian half of their roots and white washed history and their culture, much to the alienation of the Azeri and other Iranians in the country. Its to the point that the Aliyevs are met with distain in Iran, because of their very anti Iranian stance.
I think if the Republic of Azerbaijan decides to Invade the ethnic Azeri parts of Iran, they will be met with bullets from the Iranian Azeris rather than their support. There has been precidence for this if we look at the Iran-Iraq war, where the Arabs in Khuzestan/Arabestan part of Iran while they do have sympathies and brotherhood with the Iraqi arabs, met Sadam Hussains army with resistance, when Sadam and the Americans thought this part of the country would meet him with open arms.
As a fellow Iranian Azeri, I do agree on what you said. There's a problem among the westerners that see Iran as a country with a majority Persian and some minority groups, yet it's not like that at all. Persians at most make 50% of Iran's population. If the Azeris(20%) and the Kurds(8-9%) were to be separated from Iran, then there will be no country called Iran anymore. And throughout history Iran has always been a multi-ethnic country and many of these ethnic groups are so similar that sometimes it's hard to make a distinction.
It's baffling how you say azeris in Iran want republic of Azerbaijan to join Iran(a country which has beenracistto turks and pretty much to all other ethnicities and is in a very bad economic situation).
The idea seems very proposterous luke you're someone who has been to Iran for the past 20 years. But I do agree the boomers will mostly be opposed to such incursions even though the younger generations would mostly welcome Azerbaijani forces.
Israel has nuclear weapons. They might use them against Iran in a dire situation.
Samson Option
Iran also has nuclear weapons and they have Chemical weapons in Lebanon.
Israel only seems to go for that option if their homeland is being overrun. There's no way the Islamic republic can do that, much less their proxies. A war between Iran and Israel would be limited to missile and air strikes plus proxies attacking Israel while Israel would try to help the Iranian people topple the regime.
If the USA get involved in a major military conflict, I bet they will just do the same thing as the Russians: they will recruit among the convicts and ex-convicts in order to avoid calling for a draft. The USA prison population is by far the largest in the world, it is 90% male, only 7,3% of the USA prison population are foreigners, so it makes it a convenient "human resource" for recruiting people who could get sent to the carnage. Ex-convicts could also form an important "human resource" for that matter.
I don’t think that would be an option since it would be viewed as “inhumane” by the left and they, unlike the right, would violently push back in the cities. A draft would be a nonstarter because that would be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the right and push them into full scale revolt. I think that the option that would be used at first is private military contractors (PMCs for short) since they are paid at least triple what the military pays so you’ll have plenty of people to fill their ranks and you don’t have to worry about the flag draped caskets filling the news feeds.
I also believe that as the war drags on the boomer leadership will make a horrible miscalculation and initiate the draft thinking that the American people would rally behind them like the WW2 generation before them did, but quickly realize that nobody on the left or the right will be want to be drafted by draft dodgers. I personally hope that doesn’t happen because that would be the final nudge needed to cause this country to descend into absolute madness
@@AmericanAdvancement well, deep down, the left would know that if convicts and ex-convicts are recruited yo go to war, it would lower the risk that the leftists would have to go to war themselves. They would view it as inhumane but having to go to a major war is too scary, most people would prefer someone else to go there instead.
Non. 7,3% are foreigners but 60% at least are Black plus 20% Latinx. They would rather be ready to fight Whites within the USA.
Swarthoid criminals with no discipline don’t exactly make good soldiers.
Right on time
NJ has changed history millions of times
Bro I can't imagine the amount of research you have done for your videos. I studied International Relations for years and you seem to know your way around everything Geopolitics. Bravo!
As an Iranian your analysis of current Persian politics as bafflingly bad, the regime is incredibly divided and in a panicked state as Khamenei has begun losig trust within his own government, his rival general Soleimani which he conceded to his death is one massive one, his own son has begun evacuating assets out of Iran and mullahs are leaving rapidly to protect themselves from the people, the Iranian people are being led by the monarchists in protests and the mullahs and religious elite are being hunted down o the streets, if the people suege into Tehran and overthrow the regime artesh would very much side with them, this regime is incredibly weak
Also Azeri Iranians are probably the most nationislt pro Iranians you can find lmao, you seem to have no clue about how Persia is rn, If the Russian created azeri states attack i can assure you the first soldiers ready to fight them are the proud true azeris of Eran
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Monarchist revival? Nice.
What do you mean he conceded to his death
This is the apex of the knowledge and awareness of pan-persian monarchist. People are making such good and mostly unbiased analyses and then there's clown who thinks an old corrupt man with no background of political career can lead a country against the islamic regime. Your prince can't even keep his own wife from cheating on him. How the hell is he gonna lead a revolution?
So typical of your kind, delusional, illiterate, and infinitely stupid.
I will fight for the land my children's feet touch. Is that over there? No.
Man I love your videos, keep it up! 🫡