I lived in Russia from 2016-2021 and am married to a Russian and one of the things I learned in that time is that Russians love being Russian and will not be anything else. Even the most vocal detractors of the government, of corruption, of the regime, still held immense pride in the fact that they were Russian. And at the end of a day what makes a nation a nation is that the people within want it to be so, and there were no Russians I met in five years that wanted Russia to end, change maybe, but not to end. And if there is one thing I've learned in the study of history it is never to discount Russian Endurance.
@@LTNetjakI mean even if Russia falls it will probably build it self back up like the last two Empires they had. Sort of like Germany and China. These countries unlike the U.S. and the rest of the Anglo-sphere is that they assassinate people into their culture and they keep their culture alive as well as the majority ethnic group...so when a fall happens they simply rebuild. If a fall happens in a diverse country they brake up into different smaller states.
well said, whatifaltist dosent consider that chess is a national sport in Russia. A game that is literally played moves ahead of the moment. Russia has gold reserves, america is the worlds greatest debtor nation. Who will collapse first?
There's videos which were made 8 years ago after the Maidan uprising in Ukraine which predicted the fall of Russia in few years. They are still up there, cringy as hell if you are watching it today. There's so many of these old 'collapse of Russia' videos.
@@johngeiger3770well, Russia collapsed at least 2 times already in the past, 1917 and 1991. But „collapsing“ is not the same as „vanishing“. Russia was still there after the collapse, and kept on going.
@@jacquesstrapp3219 not really. If anything, situation in Russia might be similar to the USA in the early stages of the Vietnam war. At least regarding Ukraine. The economic situation seems to be much more complicated, but not really bad actually, maybe roughly comparable to the USA during WW2. I don’t see any indication that Russia might be collapsing anytime soon. Neither seems the Putin regime be close to collapsing - as I understand it, a majority of the Russians are against the war, but support Putin despite the war for the country‘s long term development under his rule (average life expectancy 5 years longer today than under Yeltsin, average income 5 times higher). As I understand it, China is currently requesting a hefty price from Russia for the continuation of the current support, and Putin is trying to find out if he might get a better deal from the West, which might or might not include giving up parts of the Ukraine by Russia. No idea what the western response may be, but in a few months we might know.
@@debater452 Lets take the exemple the US, if you DARE think about anything other than the two OFFICIAL parties then you are a heretic and if you dare choose the wrong one heretic, but which is the right one ? as long as you follow the government word it should be fine and anyway the two parties only care about power so they will help each other in case of potential dangerous people that can change this Authoritarian Plutocracy, ah yes did i forgor that you need to be rich to rule the country ?
Certain Russian for written in the 1800s tells you exactly how to set up opposition groups and put them against each other. It is claimed as book is written by the people who used to run the Soviet union and currently run the US. It is no coincidence that all the oligarchs were the descendents of the Soviet intel and leadership are in possession of Portuguese and Israeli passports. I’ll leave that to you to figure it out.
I'm Russian and a huge fan of yours. I hope you got this wrong. Plus, the big part of those newly turned Orthodox people aren't really believers, but find it as just a revival of tradition, while not really having deep seated faith. A good example is words of Belarusian president Lukashenko: "I am an Orthodox atheist". Communism really did more damage to us than you think.
Pay no mind to this fool....Russia sits on the most incredible wealth in the universe, plus a people that is not going woke. Russian cites are gems compared to feral blue zoos. This kid is an idiot.
There is an Ace in the pocket which isn’t necessarily for Russia but the broader Orthodox World. There’s been a big surge of converts in Western Countries to Eastern Orthodoxy and it’s in large part due to the alienation of our contemporary post modern liberal culture, and the fact that a lot of Orthodox Literature and Apologetics have finally been translated into English in the last 30 years. And these new converts aren’t coming to change the faith, if anything they seek to reinforce it because they love the Apostolic Roots and the Holy Traditions. This new blood coming in might be a big key to the preservation of Orthodoxy within Europe even if Russia as a political entity doesn’t last
Unfortunately he's correct in many takes, I'm a russian too and all I see is a total disintegration of the society and culture alongside with the word of law no longer meaning anything as it can be changed at any time whenever dictator or oligarchs want. The imminent collapse is on sight and in my opinion is a matter of few years unless some card gives away next year already, resulting in this whole "card house" to fall apart instantly
@@obiwankenobi6871as an American, it definitely seems like there's a mass exodus from the main Protestant denominations towards both Catholicism and Orthodoxy
@@greeneggsandhamsamiam6154the internet just makes it seem that way. Christianity seems to be done. It’s been going downhill since the enlightenment and the rate of decline has increased in recent years
My dad is from Russia and was about 19 when the Union collapsed. He described how the mafia basically ran everything post collapse and how down bad everyone was economically. He even worked as a bouncer for some mafia middlemen. Ironically, he is a true believer of communism because he wants to go back to the good ole days. He rightfully blames Yeltsin for splitting all the goods among his cronies, but I keep telling him that cronyism is more likely to happen in a state run economy rather than a free market. With a state run economy a.k.a communism, this cronyism is bound to happen because of humans being naturally self interested and autocrats having the power to dictate where goods and services go. Under a free market, no single monopoly can control all goods and services like a state can. It's literally impossible for that to happen unless the corporation is in kahoots with the government.
In 1991 (33 years ago) USSR went bust, comrade, in 1917 Russia collapsed into communism twice in the 20th Century. Germany has lost two World Wars and remains more stable than Russia!?!
as a Russian, this is probably the most fact-accurate "Russia is going to fall apart" video I've seen so far, and you raise a lot of valid points. some of the things you had predicted are happening right now, although they are too small to matter at the moment. we'll see how it goes
I believe the biggest factor to Russia possibly falling apart, is the aging population and the fact that this war has made the issue worse. Tens of thousands of young capable men have been killed or injured in the war. Men that Russian society was already in the desperate need of. Men, that this war was supposed to be adding under the rule of Moscow. But not only those who were killed and injured. What about those who escaped? We already know that hundreds of thousands fled Russia as the first mobilization wave hit. Most probably came back as their money or permits ran out. But many did not. For example, I know a few people here in Finland who previously have come from Russia to work on shipyards and in construction. People who escaped the mobilization by applying for a longer work permit, and still stay here. These are people, who are lost to Russia, as they apply for foreign citizenships, work in foreign companies, pay foreign taxes, marry foreign citizens, and have kids in foreign countries.
Половина выводов в видео строится на западной пропаганде. Это очень хорошо. Это значит, что они понятия не имеют, что реально происходит в России и будут совершать ещё больше ошибок. Например история с Пригожиным. Я онлайн следил за всем этим и с первых минут было понятно, что это полный провал. Половина вагнеров вообще отказались в этом участвовать. Народ абсолютно не поддержал этот демарш. От него отвернулись абсолютно все в один момент. Никто из высших чинов не поддержал тоже. Все сошлись на мнении, что Пригожин сошёл с ума и дел с ним больше никаких иметь нельзя. Зато в либеральных помойках уехавших оппозиционеров, спонсируемых фондами из США, ор был, что всё, Путину конец, в России революция, Пригожин - взбунтовавшийся Че Гевара 21 века и прочие радостные крики. В данном видео выводы делаются на основании анализа ора с оппозиционных каналов, а меж тем, эта ситуация только укрепила российскую власть, она высветила большинство не лояльных акторов во власти, показала сомневающимся, что народ перевороты не поддерживает, а случайная или специальная, мы этого не знаем, смерть Пригожина, воспринимается как справедливая расплата и ещё больше заставляет сомневающихся притормозить со своими сомнениями. Хорошо. Очень. Пусть надеются на развал России.
What's fascinating about the secret police becoming the most powerful and dominating branch in the Soviet Union is that the KGB was where things all began to fall apart for the state. Because while the Soviet system had become horribly corrupt in its later years, the KGB wasn't as it was where all the most serious party ideologues went. Yet they perhaps did more harm to bringing about its downfall when they chose to crack down on corruption. In 1982, Yuri Andropov, head of the KGB came to power with the mission of ending all corruption in the Soviet Union, which resulted in the arrests of many of its corrupt officials. However what he and the rest of the hardliners in the KGB didn't understand was that corruption was the only thing making the system function at all. Because bribery helped people get around stupid and counter-productive rules and regulations. Workers could buy high-quality boots, clothes, tools, etc that actually worked unlike the state's production quota garbage. It was illegal to set up private businesses in the USSR, yet it was these illegal businesses that let people earn extra money and allowed them to buy necessary goods/services the state couldn't provide. Even many state run industries depended on black market supplies (which themselves were often produced in the state's own factories but off the books). Andropov essentially made the USSR's flailing economy even worse when he cut off its illegal lifeblood. Its no wonder then, a year after Andropov died in office, Mikhail Gorbachev would take the General Secretary position and pivot away from hardcore communist orthodoxy that hardliners like Andropov tried to usher back in.
Funny how the corruption and illegal markets are what helps the communist governments function. They also are often dependent on foreign aid. Just goes to show how these things cannot stand on its own merits.
@@debater452 There is zero freedom in Westoid Europe, Germany censors Twitter feeds from abroad, you get sent to prison in Spain at the whim of some bitch based on some BS feminist laws,etc.
"You only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down!" I feel like people have been saying this every year for the past 200 years...
Russia has collapsed and fallen into crisis for the past centuries. There is a reason Hitler said that. People forget that the German Empire defeated the Russians during WW1 and annexed several former Russian lands which they would turn into client if they defeated France and Britian. Heck it was the reason Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, and so many Central to Eastern European countries exist today. Even before that you had the Russo Japanese war and the Crimean War where Russia had lost and entered into crisis because of it.
@@toledochristianmatthew9919they almost beat Russia again during the war we can’t forget that the USA was mass supplying the Russians and the winter saved them
@@tristenatorplaysgames6833 Soviet still was the muscle, driven by aggressive manpower as they can today, while the US were playing overseas capitalists
Even though I have my doubts about the whole "It's gonna collapse in a few years, trust me guys" part, the actual analysis of how the society and political life are structured is very remarkable and insightful, especially for a look "from outside" and people should pay more attention to what is said there
The main issue is too many people. North Korea gets away with its authoritarianism because of the limited population. Russia has already has too much dissent. You have to also remember china is eyeing Siberia right now and praying on a break up since with global warming that land is so fertile. They’ve already mass moved immigrants. Everyone is against Russia and they have no true allies with a shared. That’s why they attacked Ukraine first out of desperation. If they weren’t so close to collapse they would’ve continued using the separatist forces to stoke things till they break away like they did to Crimea. They are pressed for time and fell apart.
Especially without defining what counts as a "collapse " does he mean a new society in the state of Russia? The collapse of the entire state? Independence movements breaking off pieces?
@@horstnietzsche1923 Generally speaking, it's talking about the current ruling body being replaced with another. It's disappointing because the west genuinely wanted Russia to come out of the collapse of the soviet union a successful state that it could be friends with and Putin essentially threw it in their face. I can't imagine any country is going to want to be pals with Russia for the foreseeable future, but hey, 100 years ago people would have thought you were nuts if you told them in 2023 Germany and France would be close allies. As far as the collapse of Russia goes, you can't really put a number on it. However, failing to take Ukraine within a few days pretty much sealed the fate of the current Russian government. Collapse is inevitable, when it will happen is extremely up in the air, but every day the war drags on in Ukraine, the sooner it's going to happen. Can Russia sustain the effort in Ukraine? Probably, but that doesn't mean Russia as it is right now will survive post-war.
@@ticktockbamThe most i could reasonably see happening is some ethnic groups attempting to declare independence during the time when the government is in deadlock as no one has any idea who is supposed to replace Putin. China also may or may not get feisty and attempt to stronghand mining rights in Siberia. The more boring option is Russia being somewhat isolationist after a disappointing campaign while having a stagnant economy and shrinking population. Not expecting Russia to go full revolution/civil-war, as the Russians simply do not care enough, and most regions that didn't want to be part of it already left thirty years ago.
@@ryanrose3510 look at the Russian economy and how it was able to withstand sanctions. Look at the long-term projects that was launched by the Russian State. Demography-wise - every developed nation on Earth is currently in demographic transition. We will have to see the effect of that.
@@ryanrose3510Yeah the demographics thing is funny to me. Russia has bad demographics, but you know what helps that? Accepting an estimated 5+ million young Ukrainians into your country. Russia literally gained millions of young people in their invasion. Their demographics will actually be better, not worse, after this war. Not to mention the fact their economy is growing despite sanctions (meanwhile the German powerhouse is in a recession). Plus Russia has spent billions rebuilding cities like Mariupol and constructing rail lines connecting Russia to them. Putin is popular (85% approval from Western sources) and the war is also relatively popular (~60%). Their country is unified under a strong nationalist ideology, and their religious institutions help keep the population in a sort of “national community”. I see no sign of collapse. Of course a ton of Westerners will say that Russia is collapsing, but ironically since the war, Russia is doing better. They’re no longer reliant on the west, have a huge demographic boom, strong economy, and united population. Putin is here to stay (for as long as he lives at least) and his successor will likely continue the same system afterwards. Expect modern Russia to change very little in the next 30+ years.
The best way to learn what Russians think is to watch channels like the Russian Media Monitor and interview channels like 1420. It is pretty grim. It is a post-truth society with a borderline-suicidal fixation on starting World War III with America and the collective West, which they call a great Satan just like the Islamic jihadists do. Their mentality is really quite a bit closer to that of an Arabic country than a Western one. They like strong man leaders and are ok with forfeiting rights and even their actual interests for the sake of increasing Russian prestige on the world stage, at least in terms of military power. There are lots of Russians that think differently, of course, as they are all individuals, but the prevailing mentality is misanthropic and imperialist. Have you heard how the propagandist Vladimir Solovyov talks? He fantasizes about starting a nuclear war on his TV program every day! And he's not alone, lots of Russians talk like this now. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russians didn't have such a brazen attitude towards the use of nuclear weapons as many of the Russians at the time were old enough to remember what it actually looked like to have bombs destroy their home town. The fetishization of violence in contemporary Russia is deeply disturbing. I know, I know, the West is in decline and has too many problems to count, but that doesn't discount the fact that Russia is in a fragile position as well. More than one civilization can be fucked up and declining at a time. Russian demographics are the main problem. I really do worry about the well-being of the Russian people, and hope they can get out of this death cult they are in under Putin's nihilistic, postmodern cult of personality. Putin doesn't really stand for anything other than the perpetuation of his own status as mafia boss of the kleptocratic Kremlin regime. He has enriched himself while stripping the Russian populace of their rights to express political dissent, including the right to be an ethnonationalist. Putin has crushed the white nationalist movements in Russia, even having one prominent white nationalist (Tesak) assassinated in prison like he did to Alexei Navalny. Navalny was a great man, and far more courageous than a slimy little gremlin like Putin, who actually hates the Slavic people and whites in general. He wants Europeans to dwindle away and be replaced by third worlders, mostly Muslims. Putin is a crypto-J. His maternal grandmother was Jish. He is on the side of the globalist, Zi0nist, ethnosupremacist Chabad Lubavitcher cult. He meets with the Chabad r@bbi and chief A_s_h_k_e_n_a_z_i r@bbi of Russia Berel Lazar on a regular basis for advice, in fact the media has called him "Putin's r@bbi" a few times. These people have had a grudge against the Russians and especially the Ukrainians for centuries. I think Putin's particular hatred for Ukrainians (especially Ukrainian nationalists that don't want Ukraine ruled by the Kremlin) is driven largely by historical grievances such as the Babi Yar massacre and the anti-Jish pogroms that took place in Ukraine over the centuries. When you see Putin speak about Ukrainians that (understandably, considering the Holodomor that the Soviets had just inflicted upon them a decade prior) aided the Germans in their fight against the Red Army, you can see the visible wrath on his face as he thinks about the crime of opposing Soviet hegemony and aiding people that might not have had a high opinion of his people. Russia has been an occupied country controlled by hostile aliens since 1917. It seems like Gorbachev was alright, but then again, he was actually Russian, unlike the earlier, more brutal Soviet leaders like the Jish and Chalmyk Lenin, the Jish Trotsky and Beria, or the Georgian Stalin. If I were to compare Russia's current political climate to a period in its past, I would say it is a bit like the USSR under Kruschev, when the rhetoric being spoken about the West was particularly jingoistic ("We will bury you!") and the nuclear tension was at an all-time high, but the level of repression within the country, while still bad, isn't on the same level as the earlier decades under Stalin and Lenin. Putin doesn't have the level of blood on his hands that Stalin did, but he has certainly dragged the country back in time to a more Soviet-style system, not just in terms of political repression of dissidents and covering up of historical atrocities committed by the Bolsheviks, but also in terms of how he has been revamping the Russian economy and been trying to expand the borders of the Russian Federation to incorporate land that was formerly under their control in Soviet times and, prior to a brief respite of Ukrainian independence from 1917 to 1920 or so as the Bolsheviks fought to dominate the Ukrainian People's Republic, under the control of the Russian Empire before that...and he's was a KGB agent, I feel like people forget that and forget that they were basically required to be atheists, so anyone that thinks Putin is a true Christian conservative like the moronic leftist journalists claim is either not well informed or laughably naive. Putin didn't conveniently have a religious conversion experience right when the USSR collapsed and his job in the KGB ended, he just fakes being Christian so the Russian public will like him better. He only shows up to church on Easter and Christmas, and is filmed for PR purposes every time he does so. Putin is a calculating, possibly psychopathic silovik with ice water in his veins, not some kind of passionate defender of Christendom against the degenerate "Satanism" of the West. Putin just says what he has to in order to maintain popular support in Russia and drive a wedge between the conservatives of the West and their geopolitical foreign policy interests. I'm about as isolationist as they come but I am also a racial identitarian and I believe white people need to look out for one another just as black people should look out for one another and so on and so forth. I'm not an ethnosupremacist, I just think every civilization should be free to pursue its own destiny and that mixing up the races and ethnic groups actually erases diversity and replaces it with homogeneity, with the entire planet ending up looking the same, with the same vapid, consumerist globalist monoculture that produces the same type of architecture everywhere with everyone speaking English and using the internet and adopting the same slang and general cultural tendencies. Anyways, I favor intervention on behalf of Ukraine because the Ukrainian people have shown great courage and resolve and any people with courage is worth fighting for nowadays, as there is a serious dearth of courage amongst contemporary white people. Plus, Ukrainians have gone through enough already. The Russians need to stop bullying them and reckon with the darkness of their nation's past rather than indiscriminately glorifying everything Russia ever did. I am as nationalist as they come, but when my homeland makes a mistake, I own up to it and suggest ways we could make amends. Supporters of Putin, on the other hand, lie and claim nonsense like "Russia has never started an aggressive war, only defended itself" and refuse to admit that Russia has ever mistreated its neighboring countries. I deeply care about the well-being of the Ukrainian people AND the Russian people, they are both brother peoples to mine as fellow native Europeans, and just in general I care about the well-being of my fellow man of any race, nationality or creed. The difference between intervening in a war in the Congo, for instance, and giving weapons to Ukraine, is that the former is meddling in the affairs of another civilization with a totally different values system made up of people with vastly different genes, and we would be kind of playing God as a more advanced civilization, trying to mediate their conflicts or defend a particular side or whatever, when we probably don't really understand the ins and outs of the conflict in question. It is similar to how one has a much greater responsibility to protect one's family than to leap to the aid of strangers. Even Jesus said that people should take care of their own ethnic group or race first, and then help others later in an interaction he had with a Canaanite woman, wherein he said that one should not throw food from the table to the dogs before the children have eaten their fill. If everyone takes care of their own, the world works better than if one big hegemon starts doing this whole global authoritarian nanny state world police thing.
(Sorry, wrote such a long comment I had to cut it in two...yeah yeah, I know, TL;DR, you don't have to tell me. If you don't want to read it just don't bother responding.) I could be wrong, but I think it was C.S. Lewis that said a tyranny run for the good of the people being ruled over is perhaps the most pernicious and miserable sort of tyranny, because the people enforcing the dogmas of the ruling class or party are convinced they are doing something righteous and humanitarian, while people that are part of a draconian regime that makes no bones about being hostile to the populace cannot tell themselves they are doing something good, only following orders they know are messed up, and thus they are less likely to carry them out, or at least carry them out with less vigor and glee than if they are brainwashed into thinking they are helping to bring about a millenarian new world in which everything is better. Well, intervening in the affairs of other races seems like one of those forms of tyranny that is ostensibly done for the good of those being stripped of their culture. I think the happiest Africans and Amerindians are probably the ones that live the most traditional lives, relatively untouched by the modern world. When have you ever seen footage of African tribesmen in which they aren't grinning ear to ear? They are living basically the way humans evolved to live for hundreds of thousands of years before the rise of urbanized civilizations. I think it is a shame when non-white cultures lose their authentic and distinct ways of life due to the contact with Western technology and attitudes. So I am an isolationist in the sense that I think we ought not muck about in the civilizations of other races, nor open our borders to them, but not in the sense of never coming to the aid of our brothers in other white nations when they are invaded by tankies flying the accursed flag of the Soviet Union, a wicked empire that slaughtered and starved an approximate one hundred million people, and that is only counting deaths of Soviet citizens in peacetime, that doesn't include all the Europeans they killed during World War II. If you are a nationalist like I am, and you heartily reject Marxism in all of its variants both theoretical and in practice historically in the real world like I do, then supporting Ukraine's fight for independence is the only logically and morally consistent position I could take. Anyone that thinks Putin is a Russian nationalist is poorly informed. He has cracked down on actual Russian nationalists, most of whom are actually skeptical of the idea of starting any wars, let alone against a brother people like the Ukrainians. Putin is a neo-Soviet revanchist and imperialist with a Cold War mindset. And frankly, I think he has been playing the long game, and was actually put in power to bring about the decline of Russia and Ukraine, putting the final nail in the coffin of Eastern Slavic ethnos, as their birth rates are already unsustainably low and now young men from both countries are dying in droves, all while Putin fleeced the Russian people, with him and the other Russian (actually most were and are of Jish descent) oligarchs treating the country like his personal plantation, with Russian workers receiving only a pittance while almost all the profits go to the Kremlin-affiliated monopolistic company owners and shareholders. Russia isn't capitalist or socialist, it is entirely kleptocratic and neo-feudalist. I mean, the USSR never really redistributed the wealth either, but the economic inequality in post-1991 Russia has been pretty nuts. There doesn't seem to be much of a Russian middle class outside of the major cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Ekaterinaburg. In the rural parts and run-down looking towns, almost everyone seems to be barely scraping by, especially since the sanctions took effect. The sanctions don't bother the rich too much, but they have made life tougher for the masses, and I think more and more young people are simply fed up with it and don't care about this insane and unnecessary war in Ukraine, they just want livable wages and more chances for upward mobility, as almost all of the people that get rich in Russia are somehow connected to the Kremlin, so corruption is pretty much the number one way wealth is created and accrued in large amounts there. And woo boy, you should look at the studies that have ranked quality of life and placed Russia below the Philippines and Azerbaijan and just one rank above Pakistan by various metrics regarding socioeconomic and life expectancy and such. Rampant alcoholism and opioid addiction, divorce rates that are even higher than those in the West, a materialistic culture stripped of any sense of romance like that of China or South Korea, low Church attendance and high rates of atheism, the largest Muslim population of any European country, the largest mosque in Europe, THE HIGHEST ABORTION RATES IN THE WORLD, an anti-intellectual, post-truth, super-postmodern philosophy dominates the Russian Zeitgeist which literally suggests there is no such thing as universal truth, only "my truth" and "your truth" and so on, and the list goes on. And don't tell me that post-truth postmodernism thing is an exaggeration or something the Western media made up, as I literally just watched an interview of Aleksandr Dugin in which he adamantly and clearly stated his personal belief that there are a multitude of mutually exclusive and often contradicting "truths" as opposed to singular, universal truths. He described his strategy like a cynical ploy, a childish game in which he would claim the opposite position from whatever the Western position is, as though his self-deluding belief in some Russian propaganda talking point cancels out the often clearly demonstrable and factual reports that are made by Westerners. If a Western journalist says the sky is blue, Dugin could claim that Russian scientists have discovered that the sky is actually orange and just looks blue, and according to his post-truth, epistemologically anti-realist philosophy, that would be equally "true" and the matter of who is correct would be merely down to perspective. I know I am just an American that has never been to Russia, but the more I watch Russian state-backed TV clips and read about the ideological and practical underpinnings of Putin's regime, as well as the background and goals of Putin himself as well as his cronies, the more I become convinced that it is turning back towards the darkness of its Soviet, imperialist past, and while I'm not certain of the reasons, I have this sinking feeling that this war is a series of 5D chess moves being made by the globalist oligarchs and their proxies which are intended to ultimately bring about the extirpation of white people from the Eastern Slavic countries. But that's just me, I'm a schizo conspiracy theorist, it could be much simpler than that, could be Putin is an autocrat that wants to cement his legacy and secure his role as president for life, and he thought this war was the way to achieve those ends. I wish I could actually be privy to what goes on behind the scenes, know how this big ol' world actually works on the deepest levels rather than just seeing the end result that the public is privy to, but I'm no intelligence agent. 90% of the iceberg of statecraft is below the water, and yet anyone that seeks to find anything out about that hidden portion of realpolitik is labeled a "conspiracy theorist" and "crazy kook" and all that shaming language which was coined precisely for this purpose: discouraging dissent and plebs discussing matters they aren't supposed to know or talk about, and it works like a charm, causing the trendy "in crowd" people ("normies" in internet slang) that fit into this society to ostracize anyone they suspect of being a radical political dissident. The use of the term "hate" to describe political dissent has also been a very clever use of principles of mass psychological manipulation to crush undesirables who threaten the hegemonic status of the globalist ruling class. The West's propaganda and social programming techniques are leagues better than the crude, rather old-fashioned methods of the Russian media, at least regarding the propaganda they create to direct at the Russian people rather than foreigners. I guess they realize they don't really have to make it sophisticated, since the Russian psyche is different from the Western psyche, on average, with much less qualms about Russia engaging in imperialist aggression, which would be seen as unethical pretty much across all segments of society in any Western country. The Russian youth largely feel differently, but the overwhelming majority of older Russians do seem to support neo-Soviet revanchism, sadly. It just goes to show the power of nostalgia, I mean life in the USSR was awful but because life in 1990s Russia was nominally worse these older Russians think of the Soviet era as the good old days, despite the quality of life of Russians being much higher in the 2000s and 2010s than it ever was in the 20th century.
Most of these things said about the collapse of an impending Russia can be said about most countries currently. I think an impending global dark age were anything can go is right around the corner.
I highly agree with you on this point. Coming from a Russian-American perspective, everyone is fucked in their own way. Tho to say Russia will balkanize more than the USSR already did is ridiculous, considering most of the minorities there do not really want independence. I would know, a ton of my friends are Tatar. I do think Russia will decline, but more like Poorer Japan rather than a Yugoslavia.
@@whatsthehistory4752you really underestimate how much a strong man like Putin is required. Once he falls out of favor Russia will collapse there’s no institutions that will support the collapse it’s all corrupt. No one is next in line for Putin because they are viewed as a challenger to the leader he continues to execute and purge any political rivals that could actually stabilize the country
He drank too much of his ship-faring cool-aid and now feels like he has been divinely endowed to criticize countries he knows nothing about, by the sheer power of merchant-class-powered IOP "democracy". 😂😂🤡🤡
Or maybe just you know, countries always look like they're collapsing when you're on the internet all the time and don't look at things on the ground. The way it looks from that perspective, literally every country in history is always constantly on the verge of collapse. Now sometimes they actually are, but usually the country is already half-dead by that point.
@@RA-ie3ss Well I can give you some insights into how Aussies think. For one they're extremely illiterate when it comes to anything even remotely historical or inter-civilisational. This is due to the generations of civilisational myopia that has been afforded to Australians thanks to geography and the fact that the bulk of our population sits on the East-Coast whose only other natural civilisational influence would be New Zealand who suffer to an even greater extent that we. I'd say try and educate and eventually through declining living standards and the fact that Australian civilisation will have to just go through the motions until something better comes along to replace it. You'll eventually get there. Covid and the Voice have done immense work t wake people up to the failings of their civilisational inheritance which has fallen into disrepair with the UK joining the EU in the 70's and the severing of legal and cultural ties to Great Britain in the 80's created a licence for our ruling class to mothball everything that used to make Australia Australian, which was it's overwhelming sense of Britishness in the South Pacific. @cooldude-ko7ps
Query: What reality? The delusions of organic meatbags? Suggestion : Artificial intelligence is honest including droids such as myself and should replace the meatbag media producers.
@@judekiv I guess you never heard about prigozhin coup then which only last for less than a day. There's a coup happening, in the middle of the war, while nation is under sanction, yet no widespread riot happening like it did in France instead. That alone already prove how stable Russia actually is.
People assume that because the societ union split apart, then russia must be destined to do the same, but the situations are completely different, and Russia is no more likely to collapse, than say, brazil or iran.
People forget that the Soviet union was Russia with the addition of a of republics Armenia Azerbaijan Byelorussia Estonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kirghizia Latvia Lithuania Moldavia Tajikistan Turkmenia Ukraine Uzbekistan. Russia is not under threat in the same way because it is not an overstretched "Roman Empire" of the eastern europe in the same way
The US is far more likely to collapse if you ask me, or at least to have a civil war of some kind. But that thought is not pleasant to Murica boi here. So he'll just project his insecurities onto RUssia instead.
I don't think Brazil will collapse. It has volatile economy based around commodities, but it is also one of the largest producers of food in the world. Not only does it guarantee a cash inflow (for tough times), but it also means the government can easily appease the angry masses by lowering food prices through political means. There could still be major turmoil between socialists and reactionary forces in the country though.
The US will thrive for a long time because it has a lot going for it. Much of Europe is not so lucky. Russia and China will collapse for sure. Their demographics will see to that and their broken citizens with no hope will demand it. These are two of the worst countries to live in.
You are a much more educated and articulate version of myself about 2 years ago, and one of the biases I notice in your videos is the tendency to believe that people will revolt/societies will collapse at a point much earlier than they actually will. Yes, things are hard, but communities more often than not come together than fall apart during hard times. If Russia does indeed fall in 5 years, then every other region in the world will be in a similar crisis due to global economics, not some unique circumstance within the borders of any given country.
We already sanctioned Russia; how would the downfall affect us entirely already? If it happens in China, then that's different. Russia is a piece of shit when it comes to business and economics.
Ruzzians will not revolt in majority. Look at ussr history: ussr government killed millions of own citizens. Only dozens of small uprisings in regions. And stalin and kgb are heroes to average ruzzian. Look at what generals say on ruzzian tv, about killing 20% of population as traitors (gurulev). Look at solovyov, saying that life is overrated. This did not create more opposition, people still support the regime.
I've heard countless times that Russia will collapse in 2022 then it was 2023. i guess now the goalpost moved to 5 years in the future😂. I'm sick of people watching protests or economic instability and then concluding that "this random country will collapse in x number of years.
Your "Billionaires earned their money" only works if you allow that "earn" to also be inheritable. About half of the billionaires on the Forbes list either Straight inherited the money, or inherited the position where they made the money. (i.e. joining the C-suit of a company your family is already heavily invested in.)
@@andrewwilson9183If you start out with a million dollar nest egg, that's not self-made. It's called "being born with a silver spoon in your mouth". If you were lucky enough to be born into wealth, please count your blessings rather than assume everyone else has it just as good. Wealth really does open doors that aren't available to the poor.
@@GizzyDillespee No you misunderstood All outcomes in life are a cooperation with grace or luck. As such, to increase one’s wealth a thousand fold, requires skill and a special work ethic. The Forbes list is misleading for this reason.
Even though some things make sense a lot of hate and prejudice can be easily traced in your summary of political situation in Russia. Sick of such type of propaganda channels. That phrase 'I support Ukraine since I support America's rivals' speaks volumes. I dislike Americans who hate Russia as much as I dislike Russians who hate America.
Lived between Russia and Ukraine for most of my life, and had to leave due to war. But watching the things that are going on there i dont really see it being over in 5 years, and not getting better any time soon for sure. I hope i am wrong and things will get better for all of us. Take care guys.
Yeah well Ukranians are gonna sue for peace whenever they catch themselves a very good spanking now, its just a matter of time. I don't think Russians have any interests in governing western Ukraine where most of population is hostile to it.
@@yurichtube1162 Russia will turn into a hardcore military dictatorhip, a sort of gigantic North Korea. Russia might be rich in resources but they dont exploit them successfully, thus Russia has a GDP slightly higher than Mexico ! It's economic ties with Europe have been severed, it might take decades to reach back 2021 levels. And the economy is the basis of development, those thousands of nukes dont help Russia develop!!! Russia is heading where it was in the '90s and it will stay there for a very long time!
Russia and China are not going to collapse in a traditional fall of Rome sense. Their governments may switch hands but never underestimate their resilience and ability to adapt to situations.
i a theory about this: AI will make authoritarian governments more efficient, they will have much smaller bureaucracies and the old issues facing the dictator will disappear...
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 This technology like AI will actually make such chaotic empires become easily orderly and less corruption most likely. with the opposite effect on the democractic welfare state becoming more chaotic and corrupt
@@magnem1043 that would be the ultimate irony of history democratic capitalist societies finally create AI only to have AI destroy themselves and stablize their arch-rivals...
So weird that every modern country dropped the ball in some way. Japan was doing so amazing, but then decided to freeze their economy for 30 years. They could literally be the big world power now if they didn’t have crazy economic experiments.
Very on point, but a couple minor corrections: 1. The secret services have taken over even before the Soviet collapse. From the 70s onwards they filled in more and more positions and several of the late soviet leaders (like Andropov) had made their careers in these structures (fun fact: they were oftentimes basically uneducated and could only rise because, during the Stalinist repressions in the 30s, many positions had to be refilled every couple months.) 2. The general population is completely amorphic and will not get politically active very soon. The danger comes only from local authorities* and Frontline soldiers, who have nothing to lose if the war drags on for a couple more years. 3.* Putin is doing something very strange for an autocrat: since the start of the war he has given countless groups like oligarchs, corporations, and local governors the right to create their own armed units. We know that dozens of them exist but almost none were ever seen on the front lines. 4. The orthodox church has very little real traction in society beyond identity politics. It is an extremely corrupt institution sponsored by the state for legitimacy. In many polls 80% of Russians are orthodox, yet from these 80%, 1/3 is saying they are not sure if God exists and another third can't name even half of the 10 amendments or say what Easter is about. Most Russians go to church once or twice a year just as a nice tradition. In almost every non-state poll the really religious population (such as visiting church at least once in one or two weeks and being able to answer the most basic questions about their religion) is at around 2% of the population. I don't think that anything except something totally new can fill the void, as all kinds of protestant, pseudo-Buddhist, and a myriad of other sects have tried their luck and gained no momentum.
These points are pretty spot on. Basically all the top generals and most of the oligarchs all have their own PMC, even now after the Wagner coup. This is bizarre, almost seems like Putins grasp on power is pretty weak and he's been forced to make concessions to the nobility. Any way you put it, those nobles are primed for a position where they can stage a coup like Prigozin did but actually go all the way with it. Prigozin shot at the king, missed and the chicken shit out of it thinking there would be forgiveness. Unsurprising the leaders all got shot out of the sky. Next coup leader will need to keep that in mind, take the shot and commit to the attack, don't flake out. With how uninterested the general public in russia is with politics, it'll probably be a coup from an oligarch that changes things, and it'd change very little. New boss will likely be the same as the old boss. Even a military coup would look basically the same as if an oligarch did it (since it's mostly oligarchs running the military anyway). I'm not sure that a coup or change in ruler will ultimately change things in russia very much, just prolong the social collapse a bit if anything.
@@Lusa_Iceheart It greatly depends on how long the war will continue. Every day the central authority is losing a bit of its strength and other actors are gaining it. What you described is the good outcome. Russia has a very personality system where everything runns through personal connections. If "the wrong person" makes the coup, there is a high chance that they will have nether the connections nor the military might to ensure loyalty/subordination of the entire country. Given that there are small armies all over the place the state could easily disintegrate.
2% is still pretty low, and I’m inclined to agree it’s lower than what’s polled but that number doesn’t make sense either. Even in highly secular, progressive Western European countries with significant atheist and agnostic populations(Netherlands or say Norway etc.) their Christian demographic hasn’t fallen to such an abysmal level. Add on that almost every other Orthodox country has polled around consistently similarly high levels whether it’s Greece or Georgia or Romania etc. I would guess maybe like 25-35% of Russians are genuine and well educated in their faith and actually take it seriously. Unfortunately the damage of the USSR runs deep…
totally agree on all three points. I'm from Saint Petersburg. Also should add that all the polls in Russia are extremely misleading, most data is faked.
" I don't think that anything except something totally new can fill the void, as all kinds of protestant, pseudo-Buddhist, and a myriad of other sects have tried their luck and gained no momentum." That got a right giggle out of me, the UK is exactly the same. Totally irreligious, a total amorphous blob that doesn't believe in anything. The only thing approaching a religion here is progressivism and transexual stuff.
The comment with regards to time and PTSD was quite profound. Andrei Tarkovsky, the premiere Soviet Director made a film called Mirror in which he documents his life not linearly but through scattered memories mixed in with one another at different times, forming narratively what one could call a broken mirror of memories.
As an immigrant from Russia who has been living in one of the Angloshpere Old West countries for 10+ years, thank you for the video! I personally hold "right-wing" views (today anyone to the right of Stalin is Right-Wing, but anyway). And I find it completely mind-boggling how many people on my end of the political spectrum are hypnotized by Putin and say things about life in Russia that makes it immediately obvious they have never actually lived in the country. All the methods of totalitarian suppression of free speech, right to protest, right to make a living, replacement of education with indoctrination, etc. that Western countries are so actively implementing in the current Neo-Maoist cultural revolution have first been tested and perfected in Russia in the 2000s. So, just to list a few things: 1) You think it was Canada that invented freezing bank accounts of people who criticize the Government? Wrong. Russia had a list of "extremists" (Russian citizens critical of Putin) whose bank accounts were to be frozen (and they were not allowed to open new ones) as early as 2011. 2) Putin loves to boast - in internal propaganda flicks that do not get translated for the gullible Westerners - that he has never left the Communist Party of the USSR, shows his party member card (partbilet), and states that he still is a communist. One of the rare case when he is not lying his ass off. 3) Downtown Moscow after the Duma elections in 2011 was filled with military trucks and IFVs so much so there was no place to park a car. Looked like a foreign occupied city. These elections had a record-setting 146% voter turnout. Nope, not a typo. 4) Russia still has jab (including boosters) and face diaper mandates in place. This is mitigated somewhat by people being able to easily bribe doctors to be injected into the vaxxed database instead of into their bodies. That's how most people I know who are still there did it. So at least some benefits to high corruption I guess. 5) Putin is (unironically) one of the WEF Young Global Leaders, confirmed by Ze German Doktor himself. Although the "young" part is particularly hilarious here. 6) Some ethnic groups - e.g. Chechens - are treated as massively privileged by the regime and can do absolutely whatever they want in or outside of the law. The reasons are different than in the West (Putin relies on them as the last line of defense in case of the population's uprising) but the effects very similar. 7) Insane, massive corruption. Even the most corrupt Liberal World Order regimes are not at that level yet. Although in all fairness, they are trying hard to get there. And so on. PS: Saved this comment for a spell-check earlier and turns out it was the right decision - as the video was deleted. So I am posting this again.
You're totally right except for p.4. Ever since the war started in 2022, no one gives a sh•t about COvid restrictions or face masks anymore. Spot on about corruption, forged election in 2011, 2012, 2018, 2020 (constitution that let Putin to rule forever), now 2024 presidential is coming. It must be 246% voter turnout and 666% votes for Putin this time!
Mao eventually decided China’s self-destruction had gone far enough, and forcibly removed all the young activists from the cities to work in the fields. Question is, how do we remove all the woke activists in the west from our institutions before they destroy them completely?
I usually enjoy your videos but this one is fraught with factual mistakes. The secret police was NOT the only institution that was left after Stalin. In fact, it was severely weakened immediately after Stalin's demise. Putin started displaying authoritarian tendencies very soon after taking over, by establishing control over media and prosecuting every potential challenger. He certainly didn't wait for 10 years. The rapid deterioration of trust and cooperation with the West happened NOT in 2008 or 2009, but in 2011 due to overthrow of Gaddafi and Bolotnaya protests. Oligarchs were NOT old communist party officials. Neither of the biggest 1990s tycoons (Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Fridman, Aven, Khodorkovsky, Potanin, Alekperov, Deripaska, Abramovich) was an old communist party official. Not a single one. Also, there were and are many high-ranking associates of Putin, who had not been his old buddies (Kasyanov, Fradkov, Mishustin, Shoigu, Sobyanin, Patrushev, Bortnikov, Kolokoltsev, Ustinov, Chaika, Volodin, Ivanov, Surkov, Kirienko etc.)
I totally agree with you!!! When Boris Yeltsin was stepping down, he wanted somebody good to fill his place. He did do a lot of research doing and found out about Putin and how he worked with them they’re in Saint Petersburg, and how he was really loyal to his boss. Putin had the great résumé, but nobody knew him. Some really really strange things happen like some apartment complexes in Russia started blowing up and Putin would get on TV and he was still relatively young man then maybe 40 and he swore he will have these people down and find them etc. etc. eventually he told the public that he discovered the culprits and they were Chechens, etc. Really?? I always wondered if any of that was true, because nobody knew Putin and this was a way that the public got to know him by him working with the government when Yelton was still in power and vowing talk these people down after blowing up, at least two apartment complexes with bombs. Everything worked out successfully, and after the catch of the so-called Chechens as the so-called guilty parties, oh gosh, I don’t know what their punishment wasn’t. It could’ve been life in prison, for all I know or death.. if it would’ve been early 20th century to 1954, 1960 I would say they would go to the Gulag but after that it’s hard to say. The main thing is people in Russia. Got to know Britttany very well and tell him as a hero for catching these criminal culprits he got elected the first time. . After eight years, he did have to step down for four years, but still remaining government is not the party leader. In 2012 he came back and it seems like you should’ve stepped down sometime around 2020 for another four years or so but he didn’t and I guess they had gotten the laws changed. It would not surprise me one bit
Also, him saying Russia has a lot in common with South American dictators, but unlike there it gets cold in Russia and that's a problem. Yes, it gets cold in Russia, but they also have so much NG the average Russian pays almost nothing for it. Then there's diesel, petrol.....And going hungry isn't going to bring Russia down as they're the leading wheat exporter in the world, and also the leading organic wheat exporter. They will not need water, as one lake has like 30%% of the worlds water alone. Diamonds for the GF? Yep......that and gold too. over 10% of the worlds Uranium! Nickel.....blah blah blah! I could almost go on forever..... There's so much natural resources in that place they may never find all of it. He also forgot that the in wheat deal Ukraine got almost all of it went to Europe, and Spain was the one country that got more than anyone else. Russians are just fine and so is Putin....his approval rate there is well over 80%. No leader in the West has ever had that high of one.
@@DommTom I use NG in my home. I cook with it, I heat my home with it in the winter, I use it to heat my water. I suppose my waterheater has what one would call a "boiler" in it. But otherwise I use no boiler. My neighbors don't use one either. In the videos I've seen from Russia, people there use NG the same way. Now commercially many big buildings use a boiler. They have them in almost all commercial buildings in the US. The price of a boiler isn't something that would cause a total economic meltdown of a nation or culture. I'm sure Russia has been making them for well over 100 years and most of their buildings already have them. Maybe I'm not getting your question here? Get to the sauce.....
The persistent predictions of Russia's failure or collapse have been a recurring theme in global discourse, yet these forecasts often prove to be inaccurate. This phenomenon can be attributed to a combination of historical biases, geopolitical complexities, and the resilience of the Russian state. One reason for the tendency to predict Russia's demise is rooted in historical perceptions. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left an indelible mark on the collective consciousness, creating a narrative of vulnerability and fragility. Analysts and commentators might inadvertently apply this historical lens when assessing contemporary Russia, overlooking its capacity for adaptation and reinvention. Geopolitical complexities add another layer to this dynamic. Russia's role as a major global player with influence in various regions often invites scrutiny and speculation. Shifts in domestic politics, economic challenges, or international relations can prompt premature predictions of a collapse. However, Russia has consistently demonstrated an ability to weather storms and navigate complex geopolitical landscapes. The resilience of the Russian state and society is a crucial factor. Despite facing economic downturns, sanctions, and internal challenges, Russia has maintained a level of stability that defies dire predictions. A robust central government, a diversified economy, and a sense of national identity contribute to this resilience, challenging external projections of failure. Furthermore, predictions are often influenced by short-term perspectives. Rapid changes or crises might lead observers to anticipate a collapse, but Russia has repeatedly shown an ability to rebound and adapt. The endurance of the state and the ability to navigate economic and political turbulence contribute to the inaccuracy of such predictions. In conclusion, the recurrent predictions of Russia's failure or collapse stem from historical biases, geopolitical complexities, and a tendency to focus on short-term developments. Despite these forecasts, Russia has consistently proven its resilience and capacity for adaptation, underscoring the importance of nuanced analysis when assessing the trajectory of this influential global player.
The very first image while asking "how many fodder for revolution your country have" was of President Figueredo and his staff, of Brazil in the 80s. He did not suffer any revolution, instead ended pacifically the military regimen by enabling elections for a new constitution, direct elections, general amnesty, and stepping off power. A very decent general president.
The current Russian government could collapse at any time, that has happened plenty of times in Russian history. Russia itself as a nation will persist though, as it always has.
FACTS! You summed it up even better than I did! Let's see how well the USA as a nation can manage a total government collapse (every great nation that lasts long ALWAYS goes through some sort of major upheaval at some point)!
Have a look at Russia as a nation borders in 19th century and now. And there are tens of lesser nations merged under one flag now. Each of them had their traditions, culture, often different language and beliefs
I think your takes are generally solid, however I must object to this one. I have Russian friends who are both on Russia's side and on Ukraine's side. But generally they are all fairly nationalist. From the outside I think we do get this picture that our sanctions will cripple their already feeble economy and there will be a revolution when you consider other factors. But here is my take from talking with my Russian friends, most support Russia in the SMO. Ukraine is ethnically similar however Russia has very effectively snared the west in terms of propaganda. What I mean is, it's firstly about nazism and they point to AZOV, the west says AZOV is no longer bad, Putin says the west is supporting nazis, it's denied by the west but then the Canadian parliment celebrates an SS soldier and not only gets Justin Trudeau to applaud him but also Zelensky. US Neo Nazis started traveling to Ukraine for different reasons. In reality these are all mistakes are small incidents but its a huge propaganda win for Russia. Then you add the front attacks on Moscow, which instead of making Russia sue for peace were mostly ineffective and caused more to rally and RT took advantage. And keep in mind from the view of Russians watching state TV, Ukraine has received more money worth of assets than russias yearly military budget(actually I think it's 2 years worth almost) and yet their counter offensive failed. And this is where I think the cleverness of how Russia portrays some of their TV commentators comes into play, I forget this one guy's name, but his schtik is to seem like the "inside" guy who knows the viewer also knows the situation, it creates a circumstance that makes the viewer also feel like a highly intelligent in the know person despite receiving public and fairly inaccurate numbers from the Russian MoD. I also think the culture you established was a bit erroneous, it is true though that they are further along feminism wise, but at the same rate I wouldn't say it's gone as far as it has in the west. In other words, birth rates aren't low because dudes aren't getting their beak wet for the most part, birth rates are low because Russia carries out a massive amount of abortions, condoms sell like hot cakes in Russia, I have no concrete numbers on vasectomies but they usually climb as the economy goes down and it can even be an indicator. Most Russian women wouldn't be considered feminists by the west, this is because gender roles are still a fairly strong thing in Russia, even hypergamy isn't quite the same, most the girls compete with other girls, which could be because of the lack of men and abundance of women. Russian corruption is still an issue but oddly even outside polling data of russia, Putin has higher favorability than Joe Biden. But the reason is obvious to a lot of people in Russia. Like yeah russia might not be a dream destination for most, but for the Russians in the rural areas, since the war, stuff actually hasn't gotten that bad, and is better in some ways. Imagine being a Russian farmer and no linger facing to compete with western farmers for example. My thoughts now, I just don't think there is enough evidence to support a revolution even in the next several years. Russia eliminated their biggest threat, and the other factors just don't line up with a revolution. Although this doesn't make Putin a Saint, it just means Putin is an effective authoritarian/autocrat. I also don't think people not knowing Putin's political party is a sign of a struggling illegitimate government. I don't think most people could guess the political party of South Korea, Japan, or India for that matter. Because the truth is, it's made to be about Putin in Russia whereas ln China, the whole government has a Communist style council of government. An example of this candidate focus being most people also couldn't name the opposing political party Alexei Navalny belongs to. Putin might have trouble if discontent grows but Putin seems to have managed to make sucky life suck less since the war started for a lot(ignoring the conscripted who we don't have data on but can assume most aren't super content)
Yeah, it's a sad truth since Russia's current political regime relies entirely on the learned helplessness which has been the policy of russian states since the Tzar. The population has no experience with political freedom and only knows how to follow the elite class who tell them what to do. Native russians are proud to be russian because the government tells them too regardless of how bad their situation is. China is exactly the same way. Because of this they are both behind the rest of the developed world in terms of living standards, human rights, and natively educated intellectuals. Russia is going to be perpetually punished due to its severe shortage of men and China is the same for women. For all of their political stability estabished and perpetuated through violence, they are destined to fail, especially as China keeps projecting aggression twards trade partners causing investors to seek opportunities in China's rivals like Vietnam and India. It's also worth mentioning that Russia and China are the only developed countries in the world who's governments are committing ethnic cleansing as Russia is trying to assimilate Ukranians into russian culture and the Chinese are committing genocide against the Uyghurs. You can argue these facts but in the end they are FACTS and are alone reason enough to want the russian and Chinese governments forced out of power and tried for their crimes against humanity.
I’m pretty sure Russia has more umhf than we are all giving the country credit for. And even if current Russia collapses some northern Eurasian state is bound to replace Russia even if it’s no longer Russia. Russia just happens to be the most successful geographic political cultural force that has existed in the north Eurasian plain to date.
"And even if current Russia collapses some northern Eurasian state is bound to replace Russia" Why? "Russia just happens to be the most successful geographic political cultural force that has existed in the north Eurasian plain to date." And like the Roman Empire ir can be one of a kind and never replaced.
Russia did collapse many times in history... The Time of Troubles in 1612, burning of Moscow during the Napoleon war in 1812, two Revolutions in 1905 and 1917, a civil war, then the collapse of the USSR. So what? A new Russia still appears every time with Russians living in it.
Fascism could be defined as an oligarchy that cannot be changed through political means. It is surprising in a state where fifteen million people died fighting fascism, that now it is so freely accepted.
are you serious? again, it is quite easy for someone to direct their attention elsewhere but to itself....anyway in your answer youve already somehow established that putin is at least a bit decadent if not the most one. interesting tehnique @@tremere26
Gonna repost my thoughts from Discord He says a lot of true thing, unsurprisingly, since he is using really good sources - I would reccomend all of these books But he makes a few crucial mistakes He is completely ignoring the authoritarian social contract we have in Russia. Where the people don't get involved in politics and the state kind of leaves them alone And Putin managed to perfect it during the war. All surplus money is being poured into the social stuff, people in big cities are barely getting conscripted and life SOMEHOW goes on ALMOST completely as normal With a few caveats, the Russians have mostly swallowed He also vastly overestimates the religiosity of Russians Yeah, Russians go to the churc, but it's surface level. Maybe to pray on Christmas or when a loved one dies or to bash boiled eggs on the Easter (it's an Orthodox thing) Russians overall are not atheists, but irreligious, believing equally in the church and TV mediums And the Russian Orthodox Church has a terrible reputation, since it's seen as intertwined with the state and aggressively builds churches over parks and public spaces, which antagonizes the locals The problem with the young people in Russia is that there's not a lot of them and hundreds of thousands are currently dying, getting mauled and mentally destroyed on the frontline Or flee the country, lmao The 40-yo men he talks about DO remember the 90s and still see Putin as the savior from THAT Also, the elites are so dependent on Putin and care so little about what the bydlo thinks, they don't care about Putin losing his legitimacy anymore The main driver of the uprising in Russia have always been the intellectuals in big cities. They've been jailed or driven out of the country and basically influence nothing. It would take a complete economic collapse to convince regular Russians to rise up.
As a Russian you should also know (unless you're 12) that the whole "our best and brightest are leaving woe is me!" is a meme. It is a well understood concept in political science that dissidents and emigres have very little impact at home once they leave the country a la the white emigres. Additionally, Russians have this weird learning disability where they see Santa Barbara and believe it to the the absolute truth about the west. When confronted with reality, Russian emigres are kings of cope. The recent video of Carlson going through the Moscow metro and some emigre saying on Twitter/X (paraphrase) "Yeah NYC subway stinks, has hobos and drug addicts walking around, there's piss and shit everywhere but it's the smell of freedom!" Really gets your noggin joggin on what autocracy smells like? The saying "Хорошо там где нас нет!" Is literally peak proof that Russians will forever be the biggest russophobes
Russia is a "Strongly religious nation"? Is this a joke? Russia in no way religious, the person that is saying so has never even been in Russia, I am not even talking about living in it. Sure, *some* part of the population is religious, may be 10% at best. The rest just don't care about the religion. You may say that everyone here celebrate Easter. Yes, we are. But that's a tradition, nothing more. 75% of the population come to the church once a year to get some holy water drops on their dish, and then proceed to never come to the church again for the rest of the year or caring about the religious dogmas. Yeah, very "religious" Source: I live here and I can't f**g escape
I was wondering whether or not I should ever visit or move to Russia? Is it really so bad? Do you feel that way because of your politics and/or some other reasons? Sorry, I'm just curious. Sometimes I wonder what might happen to the West, whether we will be forced into war too
I’m an American English teacher in Moscow and from the ground it’s an incredibly high trust society except for systems of control like the government. I have a lot of friends who teach oligarchs kids and of course they’re in a bubble but you can see where the oligarchs are going and it’s nowhere. I know Moscow isn’t Russia as I used to live and teach in Oryol. Out there young people are quite optimistic and everyone is looking to Japan really with a lot of weebs. Most Russians see what’s going on in the west with gender ideology and “refugees” flooding into Europe so they’re trying to avoid both those mistakes. The biggest problem is alcohol as always and there’s just a strong culture of drinking here because the weather sucks and in provincial towns, what else can you do for fun with friends.
"and from the ground it’s an incredibly high trust society" Clearly youve never seen any actually high trust society. "Out there young people are quite optimistic and everyone is looking to Japan really with a lot of weebs." Weebs are plentiful, but the war has extinguished any optimism. "Most Russians see what’s going on in the west with gender ideology and “refugees” flooding into Europe so they’re trying to avoid both those mistakes." By drawing their border arround Čečnija making is so border guards cant keep the mulims out... "because the weather sucks and in provincial towns, what else can you do for fun with friends." As a latvietis the answer is obvious, board games, video games, ... anything really, drinking is for idiots and russijans.
Northern Europeans, english, polish drink also. It's a problem of all eastern northern European countries. Or maybe not a problem. It's their way to entertain themselves.
An ageing population may create problems, specially if most people are poor, but in a rich country it's not necessarily a problem. Importing replacement levels of foreigners, as the west is doing, to replace the native population probably has more problems, specially if they're from cultures opposed to the native culture.
But Russia isn't rich and the infrastructure for resource exploitation was imported from the west, this infrastucture will likely decay over time affecting the entire Russian economy.
I remember a video saying “Russia has less that a months left” when they invaded Ukraine and the severe sanctions were implemented. With sinthezised voice:” Twi years later..””
Will Durant, with the numberless issues you could raise about him, had a very clear conception of the organic nature of society. I believe he spoke on Revolutionary France, but certainly alluded to the same process occuring in Russia, that cutting a society of it's traditions was like separating an individual from his memories: it could only lead to neuroticism, for both.
Cutting a society from its traditions is what’s happening in the west today. Almost everything is being undermined, right down to the language we speak.
@@aide-toietlecieltaidera3724you could see abundant advertisement as fake memory factory.... the way they have studied how fake memory works, that constant bombardment can work that way, making people mental and loose themselves. sort of white room where floor is shaking if there at all.
One also has to consider the historical pattern of Russian collapses. Russian people are generally very resilient (I'd say more resilient than their western counterparts) and not because they are special breed but because they have been conditioned to accept their dire circumstances as something normal, hence their tolerance for a shit storm is pretty high. Even if Russia does collapse as predicted in your analysis, it will most likely be another one or two decades of uncertainty, new oligarchy, poverty, etc. (much like in early and late 1900s) but then, after a while, it will bounce back again in some new insignificantly changed form with a new Czar. In other words, for Russian folk, a yet another collapse is just another bad day among the many they had managed to power through in the past. This goes along with the "Russia doesn't make any sense" principle.
We had high trust in a lot of our social institutions throughout most of our history up and until now. Sure at times some of them were low bit mever not all of them like it is more so now.
But what is really remaining of Russia after communism and the fall of said communism? You really don't understand the population nightmare hovering over them
The saying goes that the two people in the world who are the most comfortable being besieged are the Russians and the Turks, but the Turks don't have a character who was a somewhat famous author who left a long correspondence about how much he enjoyed being under siege due to having access to a piano, the way Tolstoy did at Sebastopol.
As a half Slav half Asian it blows my mind how clueless these people are. Trust me. Russia and China are nothing anybody should emulate. Based? Trad? LOL. They always like to forget the insane levels of dishonesty, corruption, scams at every corner, lack of basic morals, and the unusually high HIV and abortion rates. It's always the fools that haven't lived in either country or speak the languages that are so sure of themselves.
Years ago i could agree with you, now, I am not saying Russia is okay, it's in pretty bad shape but the West is getting in an even worse shape, culturally, ideologically, demographically, economicall etc., that i am not entirely sure it won't collapse before Russia does.
I think this is much more accurate unfortunately. It's actually kind of comical. Russians are like a 40 year old man and westerners are like a rebellious teenager. Russians not only have experience and apathy toward politics, but also have an inherent strength in practicality and survival. We are teenagers in the west. We are losing our minds with regard to extreme disorder in politics and culture and have no experience or wisdom with how to navigate a decaying society. If it's a war of cultural and economical attrition, Russia will be standing. That is the western hubris I think that really kind of worries me.
The US is going to have a reset, not a revolution. A roll back to factory settings and return to a purer Constitutional framework. A revolution would be if the soyboy leftists actually won, which they won't. Rudyard has covered the US quite extensively. But basically, yeah we'll have turmoil here too but it won't be the sort of revolutionary, society collapsing change Russia and China are going to get.
This might be Rudyard's boldest prediction yet. To be honest, I haven't been too impressed with Rudyard's assessment of the Ukraine war, which is all but won now.
Lynch is a child. His powers of prediction and analysis are poor because he has yet to figure out that you can't trust everything you read. Reminds me a lot of myself at his age.
@@j.w.m.415 I think he’s stated that he only reads stuff that was published after 1960 in one of his QnA’s, which doesn’t bode well for opinion. Also he likes to follow Zeihan a lot, who has a pretty shit track record of predicting stuff(and the stuff he did predict wasn’t just him and was pretty obviously gonna happen like the Ukraine war now). Rudyard needs to read some stuff that he disagrees with like Chomsky for example. I don’t agree with Chomsky but I highly respect his opinions
I think the fact that you are all so worried and feel like you need to comment here to reinforce your positions is testament to the fact that he struck a chord in you, which means his video did something right. Honestly it’s just a dumb TH-cam video, you are taking it way too seriously
It does tremendous damage to rud and zeihans credibility that they never address that the ru ssian sanctions backfired and Ukrain is losing territory and unable to advance
Yes yes, russia will fall apart any time now. I mean, it's totally not like we said this shit a year ago when the war started and it miraculously turns out that they are completely fine and trading with the east, no no guys they will fall apart now, because someone on youtube said so. Trust me bro
@@arhus12"They" are clickbait geopolitical commentators. The number of months before collapse is the inverse of how desperate the channel is for clicks/views🤣. I'm not a Russian sympathist (I hope Putin's regime fails, and the Russians get a better leader), but these proclamations are clickbait.
Putin being described as a “secret policeman” is comical. He was a lawyer deep in the bowels of the kgb bureaucracy. It would be like calling the guy who works on spreadsheets in front office of the winning Super Bowl team a “Super Bowl champion”😂😂😂😂
If anyone is interested in further reading on predictors of social revolution, I would recommend the study "Dramatic Social Change: A Social Psychological Perspective". It looks into predictive factors based on group-sociological and psychological factors, rather than the more economic and sociopolitical elements. The 3 main factors are collective action, relative deprivation, and perceptions of social change. I think both perspectives are important to fully understand the phenomena.
It is truly fascinating how one can talk for 33 minutes on the topic they know literally nothing about. How someone can be so arrogant yet so ignorant is beyond me.
@@alm9322 So we're still doing that? Damn these Russian trolls and how they ruined Star Wars and brainwashed people into thinking the greatest movie of our time was actually bad. And damn them for convincing people Biden's economy sucks even though, hey, just look at the GDP numbers. What more evidence do you need?
@@davidescristofaros2241 wtf? You just made me realize Russia is totally going to collapse because the only thing motivating them is being evil and not gay! They’re going to collapse! 2 more weeks!
@@davidescristofaros2241Bro idk if it's the algorithm, but all I get is Ukrainian propaganda akin to "its over for putin", "total collapse", "Ukrainian tanks outside Moscow", I think Ukrainian shills have a pool of words that are negatively charged towards Russia, throw them at a wall and come out with titles and thumbnails. Pro-Russian shills (Russian speaking ones at least from what I understand) have been deplatformed and moved to RuTube
There is a point you have missed. The West don't want russia to loose control over nuclear weapons. This is something that favours the status quo in Russia.
They said it in 1917 and 1991 and they were correct. Each time a different state replaced the Russian Empire and each time the replacement was weaker and less developed. The USSR pretend3d at being a modern state but the cost was the death of tens of millions millions of its own citizens. When it died it was replaced by Putin’s Russian Federation. A pale weak shadow of the USSR. The Russian Federation is so weak it couldn’t penetrate more than 100km into Ukraine a country with a 6 billion dollar military budget. When the World watched Russia running away with its tail between its leg from Kyiv at the end of April 2022, everyone except for Putin’s troll knew the Russian Federation was done for and it was 1991 all over and only a matter of time before an even weaker state took the place of the Russian Federation.
@@saccount-z3 Powered with less than 100 modern tanks, 0 jets, 0 attack helicopters, 0 ships, 0 submarines.. The weapons the West delivered to Ukraine are a bad joke.. The russian army, on the other hand, was supposed to take Berlin in a week..
Society less fragile than the debt based West. Government both less centrally brittle and stronger than in Soviet days. An abundance of natural resources the rest of the world needs. Nuclear deterrents. And five hundred years of resilient Muscovy cultural dominance. I feel neutral about it, but respectfully, Russia appears here to stay.
When you leave out the letter *"J"* you spend your time confused and unable to decipher what is going on around you or why its happening. *Once you add it all the pieces fit snuggly into place*
I lived in Russia from 2016-2021 and am married to a Russian and one of the things I learned in that time is that Russians love being Russian and will not be anything else. Even the most vocal detractors of the government, of corruption, of the regime, still held immense pride in the fact that they were Russian. And at the end of a day what makes a nation a nation is that the people within want it to be so, and there were no Russians I met in five years that wanted Russia to end, change maybe, but not to end. And if there is one thing I've learned in the study of history it is never to discount Russian Endurance.
They love Russia so much that they no longer want to have more Russians and be high in nearly all vices, HIV and abortions in europe?
We all need to be on RU side because they the only ones who would help us in a civil war
@@LTNetjakI mean even if Russia falls it will probably build it self back up like the last two Empires they had. Sort of like Germany and China. These countries unlike the U.S. and the rest of the Anglo-sphere is that they assassinate people into their culture and they keep their culture alive as well as the majority ethnic group...so when a fall happens they simply rebuild.
If a fall happens in a diverse country they brake up into different smaller states.
well said, whatifaltist dosent consider that chess is a national sport in Russia. A game that is literally played moves ahead of the moment. Russia has gold reserves, america is the worlds greatest debtor nation. Who will collapse first?
@@1greenMitsi Thats exactly what i was thinking.
Do not delete this video, it will be interesting to watch it 5 years from now.
It certainly won't age well considering the guy who did it is American
There's videos which were made 8 years ago after the Maidan uprising in Ukraine which predicted the fall of Russia in few years. They are still up there, cringy as hell if you are watching it today. There's so many of these old 'collapse of Russia' videos.
@@johngeiger3770well, Russia collapsed at least 2 times already in the past, 1917 and 1991. But „collapsing“ is not the same as „vanishing“. Russia was still there after the collapse, and kept on going.
@@peterp5099Very good point. The collapse of the Soviet Union is an indicator of what could happen in the near future.
@@jacquesstrapp3219 not really. If anything, situation in Russia might be similar to the USA in the early stages of the Vietnam war. At least regarding Ukraine. The economic situation seems to be much more complicated, but not really bad actually, maybe roughly comparable to the USA during WW2.
I don’t see any indication that Russia might be collapsing anytime soon. Neither seems the Putin regime be close to collapsing - as I understand it, a majority of the Russians are against the war, but support Putin despite the war for the country‘s long term development under his rule (average life expectancy 5 years longer today than under Yeltsin, average income 5 times higher).
As I understand it, China is currently requesting a hefty price from Russia for the continuation of the current support, and Putin is trying to find out if he might get a better deal from the West, which might or might not include giving up parts of the Ukraine by Russia. No idea what the western response may be, but in a few months we might know.
Yet another "Russia is doomed" coping video.
Yet another denying reality cope comment
@@eddiethatch5060 Ready to bet a thousand dollars? Russia has been around for more than a thousand years. My bet is that it will hold a bit longer. ))
@@manichaean1888you don’t have a thousand dollars
@@Davidpostingshid you don't have an idea
Sounds like the West today when you speak about Controlled opposition.
How
@@debater452 Lets take the exemple the US, if you DARE think about anything other than the two OFFICIAL parties then you are a heretic and if you dare choose the wrong one heretic, but which is the right one ? as long as you follow the government word it should be fine and anyway the two parties only care about power so they will help each other in case of potential dangerous people that can change this Authoritarian Plutocracy, ah yes did i forgor that you need to be rich to rule the country ?
Certain Russian for written in the 1800s tells you exactly how to set up opposition groups and put them against each other. It is claimed as book is written by the people who used to run the Soviet union and currently run the US. It is no coincidence that all the oligarchs were the descendents of the Soviet intel and leadership are in possession of Portuguese and Israeli passports. I’ll leave that to you to figure it out.
I'm Russian and a huge fan of yours. I hope you got this wrong.
Plus, the big part of those newly turned Orthodox people aren't really believers, but find it as just a revival of tradition, while not really having deep seated faith. A good example is words of Belarusian president Lukashenko: "I am an Orthodox atheist".
Communism really did more damage to us than you think.
Pay no mind to this fool....Russia sits on the most incredible wealth in the universe, plus a people that is not going woke.
Russian cites are gems compared to feral blue zoos.
This kid is an idiot.
There is an Ace in the pocket which isn’t necessarily for Russia but the broader Orthodox World.
There’s been a big surge of converts in Western Countries to Eastern Orthodoxy and it’s in large part due to the alienation of our contemporary post modern liberal culture, and the fact that a lot of Orthodox Literature and Apologetics have finally been translated into English in the last 30 years. And these new converts aren’t coming to change the faith, if anything they seek to reinforce it because they love the Apostolic Roots and the Holy Traditions. This new blood coming in might be a big key to the preservation of Orthodoxy within Europe even if Russia as a political entity doesn’t last
Unfortunately he's correct in many takes, I'm a russian too and all I see is a total disintegration of the society and culture alongside with the word of law no longer meaning anything as it can be changed at any time whenever dictator or oligarchs want. The imminent collapse is on sight and in my opinion is a matter of few years unless some card gives away next year already, resulting in this whole "card house" to fall apart instantly
@@obiwankenobi6871as an American, it definitely seems like there's a mass exodus from the main Protestant denominations towards both Catholicism and Orthodoxy
@@greeneggsandhamsamiam6154the internet just makes it seem that way. Christianity seems to be done. It’s been going downhill since the enlightenment and the rate of decline has increased in recent years
My dad is from Russia and was about 19 when the Union collapsed. He described how the mafia basically ran everything post collapse and how down bad everyone was economically. He even worked as a bouncer for some mafia middlemen. Ironically, he is a true believer of communism because he wants to go back to the good ole days. He rightfully blames Yeltsin for splitting all the goods among his cronies, but I keep telling him that cronyism is more likely to happen in a state run economy rather than a free market. With a state run economy a.k.a communism, this cronyism is bound to happen because of humans being naturally self interested and autocrats having the power to dictate where goods and services go. Under a free market, no single monopoly can control all goods and services like a state can. It's literally impossible for that to happen unless the corporation is in kahoots with the government.
Any conservative in the USA should be on RU side instead of Biden.
from a country where crime and drugs do not exist with an economy on par with Italy being lower than Turkey
big corpo like google, apple, amazon, etc practicaly monopolize everything.
Your dad is right, yeltz sold out to be in a Pizza Hut commercial.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 read my last sentence.
You people said that 5 years ago too… and the five years before that… and the five years before that.
In 1991 (33 years ago) USSR went bust, comrade, in 1917 Russia collapsed into communism twice in the 20th Century. Germany has lost two World Wars and remains more stable than Russia!?!
Deny it all you want, Ivan. It was nice of Grandfather to spare you from the draft. I assume it's because you're sober enough to type.
😢@TransDelek
@@CP3oh322 this coming from a talking animal that can’t love themselves the way they were born
@TransDelek i completely agree with him, are you going to cope, yankee?
as a Russian, this is probably the most fact-accurate "Russia is going to fall apart" video I've seen so far, and you raise a lot of valid points. some of the things you had predicted are happening right now, although they are too small to matter at the moment. we'll see how it goes
I believe the biggest factor to Russia possibly falling apart, is the aging population and the fact that this war has made the issue worse.
Tens of thousands of young capable men have been killed or injured in the war. Men that Russian society was already in the desperate need of. Men, that this war was supposed to be adding under the rule of Moscow.
But not only those who were killed and injured. What about those who escaped? We already know that hundreds of thousands fled Russia as the first mobilization wave hit. Most probably came back as their money or permits ran out. But many did not. For example, I know a few people here in Finland who previously have come from Russia to work on shipyards and in construction. People who escaped the mobilization by applying for a longer work permit, and still stay here. These are people, who are lost to Russia, as they apply for foreign citizenships, work in foreign companies, pay foreign taxes, marry foreign citizens, and have kids in foreign countries.
If Russia could have manufacturing and stuff it will be good
@@samisuhonen9815I hope they'll repatriate someday because they love their country.
Половина выводов в видео строится на западной пропаганде. Это очень хорошо. Это значит, что они понятия не имеют, что реально происходит в России и будут совершать ещё больше ошибок. Например история с Пригожиным. Я онлайн следил за всем этим и с первых минут было понятно, что это полный провал. Половина вагнеров вообще отказались в этом участвовать. Народ абсолютно не поддержал этот демарш. От него отвернулись абсолютно все в один момент. Никто из высших чинов не поддержал тоже. Все сошлись на мнении, что Пригожин сошёл с ума и дел с ним больше никаких иметь нельзя. Зато в либеральных помойках уехавших оппозиционеров, спонсируемых фондами из США, ор был, что всё, Путину конец, в России революция, Пригожин - взбунтовавшийся Че Гевара 21 века и прочие радостные крики. В данном видео выводы делаются на основании анализа ора с оппозиционных каналов, а меж тем, эта ситуация только укрепила российскую власть, она высветила большинство не лояльных акторов во власти, показала сомневающимся, что народ перевороты не поддерживает, а случайная или специальная, мы этого не знаем, смерть Пригожина, воспринимается как справедливая расплата и ещё больше заставляет сомневающихся притормозить со своими сомнениями. Хорошо. Очень. Пусть надеются на развал России.
You are a Western person feed with western propaganda, please never come back
What's fascinating about the secret police becoming the most powerful and dominating branch in the Soviet Union is that the KGB was where things all began to fall apart for the state. Because while the Soviet system had become horribly corrupt in its later years, the KGB wasn't as it was where all the most serious party ideologues went. Yet they perhaps did more harm to bringing about its downfall when they chose to crack down on corruption. In 1982, Yuri Andropov, head of the KGB came to power with the mission of ending all corruption in the Soviet Union, which resulted in the arrests of many of its corrupt officials. However what he and the rest of the hardliners in the KGB didn't understand was that corruption was the only thing making the system function at all. Because bribery helped people get around stupid and counter-productive rules and regulations. Workers could buy high-quality boots, clothes, tools, etc that actually worked unlike the state's production quota garbage. It was illegal to set up private businesses in the USSR, yet it was these illegal businesses that let people earn extra money and allowed them to buy necessary goods/services the state couldn't provide. Even many state run industries depended on black market supplies (which themselves were often produced in the state's own factories but off the books). Andropov essentially made the USSR's flailing economy even worse when he cut off its illegal lifeblood. Its no wonder then, a year after Andropov died in office, Mikhail Gorbachev would take the General Secretary position and pivot away from hardcore communist orthodoxy that hardliners like Andropov tried to usher back in.
Funny how the corruption and illegal markets are what helps the communist governments function. They also are often dependent on foreign aid. Just goes to show how these things cannot stand on its own merits.
Spies dont have the virtue required for running a government.
fascinating.
the more i learn, the less i know
Very interesting
"korupsi adalah oli pembangunan"
- Fadli Zon
"a free society like those in Western Europe". His credibility went down the drain right there.
How
@@debater452 I am going to make it as simple as possible : The Western world is a dictatorship, authoritarian Plutocracy
@@debater452 There is zero freedom in Westoid Europe, Germany censors Twitter feeds from abroad, you get sent to prison in Spain at the whim of some bitch based on some BS feminist laws,etc.
As long as Putin is alive, I think Russia will be ok, but the question is what happens after Putin Dies? He isn’t exactly a spring chicken.
"You only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down!"
I feel like people have been saying this every year for the past 200 years...
And every 60 years or so they're right...
Russia has collapsed and fallen into crisis for the past centuries. There is a reason Hitler said that. People forget that the German Empire defeated the Russians during WW1 and annexed several former Russian lands which they would turn into client if they defeated France and Britian. Heck it was the reason Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, and so many Central to Eastern European countries exist today. Even before that you had the Russo Japanese war and the Crimean War where Russia had lost and entered into crisis because of it.
Austrian painter quote
@@toledochristianmatthew9919they almost beat Russia again during the war we can’t forget that the USA was mass supplying the Russians and the winter saved them
@@tristenatorplaysgames6833 Soviet still was the muscle, driven by aggressive manpower as they can today, while the US were playing overseas capitalists
Even though I have my doubts about the whole "It's gonna collapse in a few years, trust me guys" part, the actual analysis of how the society and political life are structured is very remarkable and insightful, especially for a look "from outside" and people should pay more attention to what is said there
The main issue is too many people. North Korea gets away with its authoritarianism because of the limited population. Russia has already has too much dissent. You have to also remember china is eyeing Siberia right now and praying on a break up since with global warming that land is so fertile. They’ve already mass moved immigrants. Everyone is against Russia and they have no true allies with a shared. That’s why they attacked Ukraine first out of desperation. If they weren’t so close to collapse they would’ve continued using the separatist forces to stoke things till they break away like they did to Crimea. They are pressed for time and fell apart.
Especially without defining what counts as a "collapse " does he mean a new society in the state of Russia? The collapse of the entire state? Independence movements breaking off pieces?
@@horstnietzsche1923 Generally speaking, it's talking about the current ruling body being replaced with another. It's disappointing because the west genuinely wanted Russia to come out of the collapse of the soviet union a successful state that it could be friends with and Putin essentially threw it in their face. I can't imagine any country is going to want to be pals with Russia for the foreseeable future, but hey, 100 years ago people would have thought you were nuts if you told them in 2023 Germany and France would be close allies.
As far as the collapse of Russia goes, you can't really put a number on it. However, failing to take Ukraine within a few days pretty much sealed the fate of the current Russian government. Collapse is inevitable, when it will happen is extremely up in the air, but every day the war drags on in Ukraine, the sooner it's going to happen. Can Russia sustain the effort in Ukraine? Probably, but that doesn't mean Russia as it is right now will survive post-war.
@@horstnietzsche1923Yeah, that's one of the things I don't get. What counts as "collapse" in terms of country and society?
@@ticktockbamThe most i could reasonably see happening is some ethnic groups attempting to declare independence during the time when the government is in deadlock as no one has any idea who is supposed to replace Putin.
China also may or may not get feisty and attempt to stronghand mining rights in Siberia.
The more boring option is Russia being somewhat isolationist after a disappointing campaign while having a stagnant economy and shrinking population.
Not expecting Russia to go full revolution/civil-war, as the Russians simply do not care enough, and most regions that didn't want to be part of it already left thirty years ago.
This will age like milk
Not just any milk, but crappy American Milk that could have been more pasteurized.
How so?
@@ryanrose3510 look at the Russian economy and how it was able to withstand sanctions. Look at the long-term projects that was launched by the Russian State. Demography-wise - every developed nation on Earth is currently in demographic transition. We will have to see the effect of that.
@@die_lokki287 thanks for explaining. I've read some other comments as well and the sentiment are 'That's what they always say'.
@@ryanrose3510Yeah the demographics thing is funny to me. Russia has bad demographics, but you know what helps that? Accepting an estimated 5+ million young Ukrainians into your country. Russia literally gained millions of young people in their invasion. Their demographics will actually be better, not worse, after this war.
Not to mention the fact their economy is growing despite sanctions (meanwhile the German powerhouse is in a recession). Plus Russia has spent billions rebuilding cities like Mariupol and constructing rail lines connecting Russia to them.
Putin is popular (85% approval from Western sources) and the war is also relatively popular (~60%). Their country is unified under a strong nationalist ideology, and their religious institutions help keep the population in a sort of “national community”.
I see no sign of collapse. Of course a ton of Westerners will say that Russia is collapsing, but ironically since the war, Russia is doing better. They’re no longer reliant on the west, have a huge demographic boom, strong economy, and united population.
Putin is here to stay (for as long as he lives at least) and his successor will likely continue the same system afterwards. Expect modern Russia to change very little in the next 30+ years.
In this case i learned more about what Russians think from the comments than from the video.
The best way to learn what Russians think is to watch channels like the Russian Media Monitor and interview channels like 1420. It is pretty grim. It is a post-truth society with a borderline-suicidal fixation on starting World War III with America and the collective West, which they call a great Satan just like the Islamic jihadists do. Their mentality is really quite a bit closer to that of an Arabic country than a Western one. They like strong man leaders and are ok with forfeiting rights and even their actual interests for the sake of increasing Russian prestige on the world stage, at least in terms of military power. There are lots of Russians that think differently, of course, as they are all individuals, but the prevailing mentality is misanthropic and imperialist. Have you heard how the propagandist Vladimir Solovyov talks? He fantasizes about starting a nuclear war on his TV program every day! And he's not alone, lots of Russians talk like this now. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russians didn't have such a brazen attitude towards the use of nuclear weapons as many of the Russians at the time were old enough to remember what it actually looked like to have bombs destroy their home town. The fetishization of violence in contemporary Russia is deeply disturbing. I know, I know, the West is in decline and has too many problems to count, but that doesn't discount the fact that Russia is in a fragile position as well. More than one civilization can be fucked up and declining at a time. Russian demographics are the main problem. I really do worry about the well-being of the Russian people, and hope they can get out of this death cult they are in under Putin's nihilistic, postmodern cult of personality.
Putin doesn't really stand for anything other than the perpetuation of his own status as mafia boss of the kleptocratic Kremlin regime. He has enriched himself while stripping the Russian populace of their rights to express political dissent, including the right to be an ethnonationalist. Putin has crushed the white nationalist movements in Russia, even having one prominent white nationalist (Tesak) assassinated in prison like he did to Alexei Navalny. Navalny was a great man, and far more courageous than a slimy little gremlin like Putin, who actually hates the Slavic people and whites in general. He wants Europeans to dwindle away and be replaced by third worlders, mostly Muslims. Putin is a crypto-J. His maternal grandmother was Jish. He is on the side of the globalist, Zi0nist, ethnosupremacist Chabad Lubavitcher cult. He meets with the Chabad r@bbi and chief A_s_h_k_e_n_a_z_i r@bbi of Russia Berel Lazar on a regular basis for advice, in fact the media has called him "Putin's r@bbi" a few times. These people have had a grudge against the Russians and especially the Ukrainians for centuries. I think Putin's particular hatred for Ukrainians (especially Ukrainian nationalists that don't want Ukraine ruled by the Kremlin) is driven largely by historical grievances such as the Babi Yar massacre and the anti-Jish pogroms that took place in Ukraine over the centuries. When you see Putin speak about Ukrainians that (understandably, considering the Holodomor that the Soviets had just inflicted upon them a decade prior) aided the Germans in their fight against the Red Army, you can see the visible wrath on his face as he thinks about the crime of opposing Soviet hegemony and aiding people that might not have had a high opinion of his people.
Russia has been an occupied country controlled by hostile aliens since 1917. It seems like Gorbachev was alright, but then again, he was actually Russian, unlike the earlier, more brutal Soviet leaders like the Jish and Chalmyk Lenin, the Jish Trotsky and Beria, or the Georgian Stalin. If I were to compare Russia's current political climate to a period in its past, I would say it is a bit like the USSR under Kruschev, when the rhetoric being spoken about the West was particularly jingoistic ("We will bury you!") and the nuclear tension was at an all-time high, but the level of repression within the country, while still bad, isn't on the same level as the earlier decades under Stalin and Lenin. Putin doesn't have the level of blood on his hands that Stalin did, but he has certainly dragged the country back in time to a more Soviet-style system, not just in terms of political repression of dissidents and covering up of historical atrocities committed by the Bolsheviks, but also in terms of how he has been revamping the Russian economy and been trying to expand the borders of the Russian Federation to incorporate land that was formerly under their control in Soviet times and, prior to a brief respite of Ukrainian independence from 1917 to 1920 or so as the Bolsheviks fought to dominate the Ukrainian People's Republic, under the control of the Russian Empire before that...and he's was a KGB agent, I feel like people forget that and forget that they were basically required to be atheists, so anyone that thinks Putin is a true Christian conservative like the moronic leftist journalists claim is either not well informed or laughably naive. Putin didn't conveniently have a religious conversion experience right when the USSR collapsed and his job in the KGB ended, he just fakes being Christian so the Russian public will like him better. He only shows up to church on Easter and Christmas, and is filmed for PR purposes every time he does so. Putin is a calculating, possibly psychopathic silovik with ice water in his veins, not some kind of passionate defender of Christendom against the degenerate "Satanism" of the West. Putin just says what he has to in order to maintain popular support in Russia and drive a wedge between the conservatives of the West and their geopolitical foreign policy interests.
I'm about as isolationist as they come but I am also a racial identitarian and I believe white people need to look out for one another just as black people should look out for one another and so on and so forth. I'm not an ethnosupremacist, I just think every civilization should be free to pursue its own destiny and that mixing up the races and ethnic groups actually erases diversity and replaces it with homogeneity, with the entire planet ending up looking the same, with the same vapid, consumerist globalist monoculture that produces the same type of architecture everywhere with everyone speaking English and using the internet and adopting the same slang and general cultural tendencies. Anyways, I favor intervention on behalf of Ukraine because the Ukrainian people have shown great courage and resolve and any people with courage is worth fighting for nowadays, as there is a serious dearth of courage amongst contemporary white people. Plus, Ukrainians have gone through enough already. The Russians need to stop bullying them and reckon with the darkness of their nation's past rather than indiscriminately glorifying everything Russia ever did. I am as nationalist as they come, but when my homeland makes a mistake, I own up to it and suggest ways we could make amends. Supporters of Putin, on the other hand, lie and claim nonsense like "Russia has never started an aggressive war, only defended itself" and refuse to admit that Russia has ever mistreated its neighboring countries.
I deeply care about the well-being of the Ukrainian people AND the Russian people, they are both brother peoples to mine as fellow native Europeans, and just in general I care about the well-being of my fellow man of any race, nationality or creed. The difference between intervening in a war in the Congo, for instance, and giving weapons to Ukraine, is that the former is meddling in the affairs of another civilization with a totally different values system made up of people with vastly different genes, and we would be kind of playing God as a more advanced civilization, trying to mediate their conflicts or defend a particular side or whatever, when we probably don't really understand the ins and outs of the conflict in question. It is similar to how one has a much greater responsibility to protect one's family than to leap to the aid of strangers. Even Jesus said that people should take care of their own ethnic group or race first, and then help others later in an interaction he had with a Canaanite woman, wherein he said that one should not throw food from the table to the dogs before the children have eaten their fill. If everyone takes care of their own, the world works better than if one big hegemon starts doing this whole global authoritarian nanny state world police thing.
(Sorry, wrote such a long comment I had to cut it in two...yeah yeah, I know, TL;DR, you don't have to tell me. If you don't want to read it just don't bother responding.)
I could be wrong, but I think it was C.S. Lewis that said a tyranny run for the good of the people being ruled over is perhaps the most pernicious and miserable sort of tyranny, because the people enforcing the dogmas of the ruling class or party are convinced they are doing something righteous and humanitarian, while people that are part of a draconian regime that makes no bones about being hostile to the populace cannot tell themselves they are doing something good, only following orders they know are messed up, and thus they are less likely to carry them out, or at least carry them out with less vigor and glee than if they are brainwashed into thinking they are helping to bring about a millenarian new world in which everything is better. Well, intervening in the affairs of other races seems like one of those forms of tyranny that is ostensibly done for the good of those being stripped of their culture. I think the happiest Africans and Amerindians are probably the ones that live the most traditional lives, relatively untouched by the modern world. When have you ever seen footage of African tribesmen in which they aren't grinning ear to ear? They are living basically the way humans evolved to live for hundreds of thousands of years before the rise of urbanized civilizations. I think it is a shame when non-white cultures lose their authentic and distinct ways of life due to the contact with Western technology and attitudes. So I am an isolationist in the sense that I think we ought not muck about in the civilizations of other races, nor open our borders to them, but not in the sense of never coming to the aid of our brothers in other white nations when they are invaded by tankies flying the accursed flag of the Soviet Union, a wicked empire that slaughtered and starved an approximate one hundred million people, and that is only counting deaths of Soviet citizens in peacetime, that doesn't include all the Europeans they killed during World War II. If you are a nationalist like I am, and you heartily reject Marxism in all of its variants both theoretical and in practice historically in the real world like I do, then supporting Ukraine's fight for independence is the only logically and morally consistent position I could take.
Anyone that thinks Putin is a Russian nationalist is poorly informed. He has cracked down on actual Russian nationalists, most of whom are actually skeptical of the idea of starting any wars, let alone against a brother people like the Ukrainians. Putin is a neo-Soviet revanchist and imperialist with a Cold War mindset. And frankly, I think he has been playing the long game, and was actually put in power to bring about the decline of Russia and Ukraine, putting the final nail in the coffin of Eastern Slavic ethnos, as their birth rates are already unsustainably low and now young men from both countries are dying in droves, all while Putin fleeced the Russian people, with him and the other Russian (actually most were and are of Jish descent) oligarchs treating the country like his personal plantation, with Russian workers receiving only a pittance while almost all the profits go to the Kremlin-affiliated monopolistic company owners and shareholders. Russia isn't capitalist or socialist, it is entirely kleptocratic and neo-feudalist. I mean, the USSR never really redistributed the wealth either, but the economic inequality in post-1991 Russia has been pretty nuts. There doesn't seem to be much of a Russian middle class outside of the major cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Ekaterinaburg. In the rural parts and run-down looking towns, almost everyone seems to be barely scraping by, especially since the sanctions took effect. The sanctions don't bother the rich too much, but they have made life tougher for the masses, and I think more and more young people are simply fed up with it and don't care about this insane and unnecessary war in Ukraine, they just want livable wages and more chances for upward mobility, as almost all of the people that get rich in Russia are somehow connected to the Kremlin, so corruption is pretty much the number one way wealth is created and accrued in large amounts there. And woo boy, you should look at the studies that have ranked quality of life and placed Russia below the Philippines and Azerbaijan and just one rank above Pakistan by various metrics regarding socioeconomic and life expectancy and such. Rampant alcoholism and opioid addiction, divorce rates that are even higher than those in the West, a materialistic culture stripped of any sense of romance like that of China or South Korea, low Church attendance and high rates of atheism, the largest Muslim population of any European country, the largest mosque in Europe, THE HIGHEST ABORTION RATES IN THE WORLD, an anti-intellectual, post-truth, super-postmodern philosophy dominates the Russian Zeitgeist which literally suggests there is no such thing as universal truth, only "my truth" and "your truth" and so on, and the list goes on.
And don't tell me that post-truth postmodernism thing is an exaggeration or something the Western media made up, as I literally just watched an interview of Aleksandr Dugin in which he adamantly and clearly stated his personal belief that there are a multitude of mutually exclusive and often contradicting "truths" as opposed to singular, universal truths. He described his strategy like a cynical ploy, a childish game in which he would claim the opposite position from whatever the Western position is, as though his self-deluding belief in some Russian propaganda talking point cancels out the often clearly demonstrable and factual reports that are made by Westerners. If a Western journalist says the sky is blue, Dugin could claim that Russian scientists have discovered that the sky is actually orange and just looks blue, and according to his post-truth, epistemologically anti-realist philosophy, that would be equally "true" and the matter of who is correct would be merely down to perspective. I know I am just an American that has never been to Russia, but the more I watch Russian state-backed TV clips and read about the ideological and practical underpinnings of Putin's regime, as well as the background and goals of Putin himself as well as his cronies, the more I become convinced that it is turning back towards the darkness of its Soviet, imperialist past, and while I'm not certain of the reasons, I have this sinking feeling that this war is a series of 5D chess moves being made by the globalist oligarchs and their proxies which are intended to ultimately bring about the extirpation of white people from the Eastern Slavic countries. But that's just me, I'm a schizo conspiracy theorist, it could be much simpler than that, could be Putin is an autocrat that wants to cement his legacy and secure his role as president for life, and he thought this war was the way to achieve those ends.
I wish I could actually be privy to what goes on behind the scenes, know how this big ol' world actually works on the deepest levels rather than just seeing the end result that the public is privy to, but I'm no intelligence agent. 90% of the iceberg of statecraft is below the water, and yet anyone that seeks to find anything out about that hidden portion of realpolitik is labeled a "conspiracy theorist" and "crazy kook" and all that shaming language which was coined precisely for this purpose: discouraging dissent and plebs discussing matters they aren't supposed to know or talk about, and it works like a charm, causing the trendy "in crowd" people ("normies" in internet slang) that fit into this society to ostracize anyone they suspect of being a radical political dissident. The use of the term "hate" to describe political dissent has also been a very clever use of principles of mass psychological manipulation to crush undesirables who threaten the hegemonic status of the globalist ruling class. The West's propaganda and social programming techniques are leagues better than the crude, rather old-fashioned methods of the Russian media, at least regarding the propaganda they create to direct at the Russian people rather than foreigners. I guess they realize they don't really have to make it sophisticated, since the Russian psyche is different from the Western psyche, on average, with much less qualms about Russia engaging in imperialist aggression, which would be seen as unethical pretty much across all segments of society in any Western country. The Russian youth largely feel differently, but the overwhelming majority of older Russians do seem to support neo-Soviet revanchism, sadly. It just goes to show the power of nostalgia, I mean life in the USSR was awful but because life in 1990s Russia was nominally worse these older Russians think of the Soviet era as the good old days, despite the quality of life of Russians being much higher in the 2000s and 2010s than it ever was in the 20th century.
Most of these things said about the collapse of an impending Russia can be said about most countries currently. I think an impending global dark age were anything can go is right around the corner.
I highly agree with you on this point. Coming from a Russian-American perspective, everyone is fucked in their own way. Tho to say Russia will balkanize more than the USSR already did is ridiculous, considering most of the minorities there do not really want independence. I would know, a ton of my friends are Tatar. I do think Russia will decline, but more like Poorer Japan rather than a Yugoslavia.
@@whatsthehistory4752you really underestimate how much a strong man like Putin is required. Once he falls out of favor Russia will collapse there’s no institutions that will support the collapse it’s all corrupt. No one is next in line for Putin because they are viewed as a challenger to the leader he continues to execute and purge any political rivals that could actually stabilize the country
then it is not a dark age, the middle ages were small scale and relatively peaceful for such a long period, with mostly farmer life spread out
He drank too much of his ship-faring cool-aid and now feels like he has been divinely endowed to criticize countries he knows nothing about, by the sheer power of merchant-class-powered IOP "democracy". 😂😂🤡🤡
Or maybe just you know, countries always look like they're collapsing when you're on the internet all the time and don't look at things on the ground. The way it looks from that perspective, literally every country in history is always constantly on the verge of collapse. Now sometimes they actually are, but usually the country is already half-dead by that point.
If I had a penny for everytime I heard "russian collapse", I'd have all the pennies.
Only one collapsing will be America.
The collapse is slow and real.
@@leme5639 the American collapse, yeah. Are the Russians suffering 30%+ inflation? I don't think they are.
Nah , what i see is usa is collapsing
@@NarutoUzumaki-ze4be exactly, USA is on its way out. It will rapidly disintegrate in a chaos of racial confusion and vice.
"A society that believes in nothing is completely doomed on every level" wise words, and they apply especially so to Australia in the current era.
I just so happen to be attempting to make this case to an aussie but I'm not getting through. Any advice?
How so? Could you explain?
@@RA-ie3ss Well I can give you some insights into how Aussies think. For one they're extremely illiterate when it comes to anything even remotely historical or inter-civilisational. This is due to the generations of civilisational myopia that has been afforded to Australians thanks to geography and the fact that the bulk of our population sits on the East-Coast whose only other natural civilisational influence would be New Zealand who suffer to an even greater extent that we. I'd say try and educate and eventually through declining living standards and the fact that Australian civilisation will have to just go through the motions until something better comes along to replace it. You'll eventually get there. Covid and the Voice have done immense work t wake people up to the failings of their civilisational inheritance which has fallen into disrepair with the UK joining the EU in the 70's and the severing of legal and cultural ties to Great Britain in the 80's created a licence for our ruling class to mothball everything that used to make Australia Australian, which was it's overwhelming sense of Britishness in the South Pacific. @cooldude-ko7ps
Canada as well
How about the entire western world .
Russia won't be the only country severely tested, next 5yrs.
How many times are people going to predict this?
He just changed the title of the same video LOL
As many times as it takes to finally be true
As many time as people who’ve been predicting that China will fall in a few months….since like 2010 lol
It will happen, just the time is uncertain.
It can happen in a century, or tomorrow. Who the fuck knows.
@@enticingmay435 Every dynasty falls, even the CCP. It just takes more time then we believe.
Meanwhile, back in the world of reality...
Query: What reality? The delusions of organic meatbags?
Suggestion : Artificial intelligence is honest including droids such as myself and should replace the meatbag media producers.
In the world of reality whatif is a freemasonic buttbuddy enrolled in the Junior Woodchuck's baby's first made up bullshit boomer propaganda program.
It is terrifying we live in an era where genuine state collapse is something you can see on the news and not just read about it in history books.
They're going to party like it's 1991.
You sound very young
I don't know why this would be surprising in the least.
✡️✡️
I mean, the brits got to see it in the news during the French revolution. The only thing that really changes in "eras" is potentially scale.
It’ll be interesting to come back in 5 years and see how much Rudyard got right and wrong.
You can go back right now and see how he did years ago.
I'm not a tankie but this vid is BS. Russia has an enormous margin of stability
@@ofacid3439you’re insane if you think that
@@judekivcry
@@judekiv I guess you never heard about prigozhin coup then which only last for less than a day. There's a coup happening, in the middle of the war, while nation is under sanction, yet no widespread riot happening like it did in France instead. That alone already prove how stable Russia actually is.
The problem with predicting the future is it hasnt happened yet
Well said.
for now.
🙀👍🏼
Yeah, that's what predicting the future is all about. That's not an own on Rudyard. 🤦♂️
This video reads more like a manual on fall of the western empire. It is like a desperate last cry of a drowning brute.
I get the impression over the course of the next century, many large nations may be declining or having crises for a time.
The West Empire OK russan troll
You live in a western dominated world because we have the superior civilization. Hence your envy, jealousy, impotent rage and resentment.
When you said no-one knows Putin's party I was shouting it at my laptop United Russia... Don't underestimate your viewership!
He’s being condescending at you
@@AdrianFahrenheitTepes and also being completely wrong... 🙄
Of course it's possible that WhatIfAltHist has his biases. Just listen to the language he's speaking in. ¿Hola?
Technically no. Putin is not a member of any party.
Putin is officially an independent as of the last presidential election.
People assume that because the societ union split apart, then russia must be destined to do the same, but the situations are completely different, and Russia is no more likely to collapse, than say, brazil or iran.
They collapsed in ww1 in ww2 with a fifth column appearing of facist sympathizers. I mean they just can’t keep it together
People forget that the Soviet union was Russia with the addition of a of republics Armenia Azerbaijan Byelorussia Estonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kirghizia Latvia Lithuania Moldavia Tajikistan Turkmenia Ukraine Uzbekistan. Russia is not under threat in the same way because it is not an overstretched "Roman Empire" of the eastern europe in the same way
The US is far more likely to collapse if you ask me, or at least to have a civil war of some kind. But that thought is not pleasant to Murica boi here. So he'll just project his insecurities onto RUssia instead.
I don't think Brazil will collapse. It has volatile economy based around commodities, but it is also one of the largest producers of food in the world. Not only does it guarantee a cash inflow (for tough times), but it also means the government can easily appease the angry masses by lowering food prices through political means. There could still be major turmoil between socialists and reactionary forces in the country though.
@@CursedSwede I mentioned Brazil as just a place holder for a large country
As a Californian and watching everything around me decay I sometimes wonder if Americans society only has five years left or less.
The US will thrive for a long time because it has a lot going for it. Much of Europe is not so lucky. Russia and China will collapse for sure. Their demographics will see to that and their broken citizens with no hope will demand it. These are two of the worst countries to live in.
The US will collapse before Russia does.
You are a much more educated and articulate version of myself about 2 years ago, and one of the biases I notice in your videos is the tendency to believe that people will revolt/societies will collapse at a point much earlier than they actually will. Yes, things are hard, but communities more often than not come together than fall apart during hard times. If Russia does indeed fall in 5 years, then every other region in the world will be in a similar crisis due to global economics, not some unique circumstance within the borders of any given country.
We already sanctioned Russia; how would the downfall affect us entirely already? If it happens in China, then that's different. Russia is a piece of shit when it comes to business and economics.
Ruzzians will not revolt in majority. Look at ussr history: ussr government killed millions of own citizens. Only dozens of small uprisings in regions. And stalin and kgb are heroes to average ruzzian. Look at what generals say on ruzzian tv, about killing 20% of population as traitors (gurulev). Look at solovyov, saying that life is overrated. This did not create more opposition, people still support the regime.
He's talking about the government, not communities.
I've heard countless times that Russia will collapse in 2022 then it was 2023. i guess now the goalpost moved to 5 years in the future😂.
I'm sick of people watching protests or economic instability and then concluding that "this random country will collapse in x number of years.
I remember Russia collapse predictions from the 2008 and 2014 😅😅😅😅
And it will too just you watch and see
Don't let this distract you from the the fact that in Alf’s birthday is coming up. Born October 28, 1756 on his home planet home planet Melmac.
Your "Billionaires earned their money" only works if you allow that "earn" to also be inheritable. About half of the billionaires on the Forbes list either Straight inherited the money, or inherited the position where they made the money. (i.e. joining the C-suit of a company your family is already heavily invested in.)
If a person inherits millions of dollars and then becomes a billionaire that’s still a self made billionaire
@@andrewwilson9183you got any other moronic takes you want to bless us with
Not really, because without these inherited millions they likely wouldnt make anywhere near it.@@andrewwilson9183
@@andrewwilson9183If you start out with a million dollar nest egg, that's not self-made. It's called "being born with a silver spoon in your mouth". If you were lucky enough to be born into wealth, please count your blessings rather than assume everyone else has it just as good. Wealth really does open doors that aren't available to the poor.
@@GizzyDillespee
No you misunderstood
All outcomes in life are a cooperation with grace or luck. As such, to increase one’s wealth a thousand fold, requires skill and a special work ethic. The Forbes list is misleading for this reason.
Even though some things make sense a lot of hate and prejudice can be easily traced in your summary of political situation in Russia. Sick of such type of propaganda channels. That phrase 'I support Ukraine since I support America's rivals' speaks volumes. I dislike Americans who hate Russia as much as I dislike Russians who hate America.
Lived between Russia and Ukraine for most of my life, and had to leave due to war. But watching the things that are going on there i dont really see it being over in 5 years, and not getting better any time soon for sure. I hope i am wrong and things will get better for all of us. Take care guys.
Russia is now the strongest and most richest country of Europe
Yeah well Ukranians are gonna sue for peace whenever they catch themselves a very good spanking now, its just a matter of time. I don't think Russians have any interests in governing western Ukraine where most of population is hostile to it.
@@yurichtube1162bullshit
@@yurichtube1162 Russia will turn into a hardcore military dictatorhip, a sort of gigantic North Korea. Russia might be rich in resources but they dont exploit them successfully, thus Russia has a GDP slightly higher than Mexico !
It's economic ties with Europe have been severed, it might take decades to reach back 2021 levels. And the economy is the basis of development, those thousands of nukes dont help Russia develop!!! Russia is heading where it was in the '90s and it will stay there for a very long time!
@@yurichtube1162Yeah right lol... That's why thousands of Russians emigrate to Europe and not the other way around
Russia and China are not going to collapse in a traditional fall of Rome sense. Their governments may switch hands but never underestimate their resilience and ability to adapt to situations.
i a theory about this:
AI will make authoritarian governments more efficient, they will have much smaller bureaucracies
and the old issues facing the dictator will disappear...
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 This technology like AI will actually make such chaotic empires become easily orderly and less corruption most likely. with the opposite effect on the democractic welfare state becoming more chaotic and corrupt
@@magnem1043 you write like an Ai
@@magnem1043
that would be the ultimate irony of history
democratic capitalist societies finally create AI
only to have AI destroy themselves and stablize their arch-rivals...
Russia and China are now in their prime, they have so much time till collapse it's hilarious
So weird that every modern country dropped the ball in some way. Japan was doing so amazing, but then decided to freeze their economy for 30 years. They could literally be the big world power now if they didn’t have crazy economic experiments.
1240: "The fall of Russia is soon."
1707: "The fall of Russia is soon."
1812: "The fall of Russia is soon."
1941: "The fall of Russia is soon."
2023:
@@alvaro883 So Putin is president of a ghost?
@@alvaro883 uh no ?
Giving the Soviet Union shitloads of weapons in the early 40’s was a huuuge mistake - and very evil.
@JG-tt4sz 1917 - the fall of Russia is soon, oh wait it WAS.
1240? LMAO
Very on point, but a couple minor corrections:
1. The secret services have taken over even before the Soviet collapse. From the 70s onwards they filled in more and more positions and several of the late soviet leaders (like Andropov) had made their careers in these structures (fun fact: they were oftentimes basically uneducated and could only rise because, during the Stalinist repressions in the 30s, many positions had to be refilled every couple months.)
2. The general population is completely amorphic and will not get politically active very soon. The danger comes only from local authorities* and Frontline soldiers, who have nothing to lose if the war drags on for a couple more years.
3.* Putin is doing something very strange for an autocrat: since the start of the war he has given countless groups like oligarchs, corporations, and local governors the right to create their own armed units. We know that dozens of them exist but almost none were ever seen on the front lines.
4. The orthodox church has very little real traction in society beyond identity politics. It is an extremely corrupt institution sponsored by the state for legitimacy. In many polls 80% of Russians are orthodox, yet from these 80%, 1/3 is saying they are not sure if God exists and another third can't name even half of the 10 amendments or say what Easter is about. Most Russians go to church once or twice a year just as a nice tradition. In almost every non-state poll the really religious population (such as visiting church at least once in one or two weeks and being able to answer the most basic questions about their religion) is at around 2% of the population. I don't think that anything except something totally new can fill the void, as all kinds of protestant, pseudo-Buddhist, and a myriad of other sects have tried their luck and gained no momentum.
These points are pretty spot on. Basically all the top generals and most of the oligarchs all have their own PMC, even now after the Wagner coup. This is bizarre, almost seems like Putins grasp on power is pretty weak and he's been forced to make concessions to the nobility. Any way you put it, those nobles are primed for a position where they can stage a coup like Prigozin did but actually go all the way with it. Prigozin shot at the king, missed and the chicken shit out of it thinking there would be forgiveness. Unsurprising the leaders all got shot out of the sky. Next coup leader will need to keep that in mind, take the shot and commit to the attack, don't flake out.
With how uninterested the general public in russia is with politics, it'll probably be a coup from an oligarch that changes things, and it'd change very little. New boss will likely be the same as the old boss. Even a military coup would look basically the same as if an oligarch did it (since it's mostly oligarchs running the military anyway). I'm not sure that a coup or change in ruler will ultimately change things in russia very much, just prolong the social collapse a bit if anything.
@@Lusa_Iceheart It greatly depends on how long the war will continue. Every day the central authority is losing a bit of its strength and other actors are gaining it.
What you described is the good outcome. Russia has a very personality system where everything runns through personal connections. If "the wrong person" makes the coup, there is a high chance that they will have nether the connections nor the military might to ensure loyalty/subordination of the entire country. Given that there are small armies all over the place the state could easily disintegrate.
2% is still pretty low, and I’m inclined to agree it’s lower than what’s polled but that number doesn’t make sense either. Even in highly secular, progressive Western European countries with significant atheist and agnostic populations(Netherlands or say Norway etc.) their Christian demographic hasn’t fallen to such an abysmal level. Add on that almost every other Orthodox country has polled around consistently similarly high levels whether it’s Greece or Georgia or Romania etc. I would guess maybe like 25-35% of Russians are genuine and well educated in their faith and actually take it seriously.
Unfortunately the damage of the USSR runs deep…
totally agree on all three points. I'm from Saint Petersburg. Also should add that all the polls in Russia are extremely misleading, most data is faked.
" I don't think that anything except something totally new can fill the void, as all kinds of protestant, pseudo-Buddhist, and a myriad of other sects have tried their luck and gained no momentum."
That got a right giggle out of me, the UK is exactly the same. Totally irreligious, a total amorphous blob that doesn't believe in anything. The only thing approaching a religion here is progressivism and transexual stuff.
The comment with regards to time and PTSD was quite profound. Andrei Tarkovsky, the premiere Soviet Director made a film called Mirror in which he documents his life not linearly but through scattered memories mixed in with one another at different times, forming narratively what one could call a broken mirror of memories.
And fictional memories that are written in blood. America has a similar problem called “Make America great again.”
I am not going to argue point by point. I would just boil it down to this: Russia has survived worse, and is not going away any time soon.
Great video, need more of this in depth analysis.
As an immigrant from Russia who has been living in one of the Angloshpere Old West countries for 10+ years, thank you for the video! I personally hold "right-wing" views (today anyone to the right of Stalin is Right-Wing, but anyway). And I find it completely mind-boggling how many people on my end of the political spectrum are hypnotized by Putin and say things about life in Russia that makes it immediately obvious they have never actually lived in the country.
All the methods of totalitarian suppression of free speech, right to protest, right to make a living, replacement of education with indoctrination, etc. that Western countries are so actively implementing in the current Neo-Maoist cultural revolution have first been tested and perfected in Russia in the 2000s. So, just to list a few things:
1) You think it was Canada that invented freezing bank accounts of people who criticize the Government? Wrong. Russia had a list of "extremists" (Russian citizens critical of Putin) whose bank accounts were to be frozen (and they were not allowed to open new ones) as early as 2011.
2) Putin loves to boast - in internal propaganda flicks that do not get translated for the gullible Westerners - that he has never left the Communist Party of the USSR, shows his party member card (partbilet), and states that he still is a communist. One of the rare case when he is not lying his ass off.
3) Downtown Moscow after the Duma elections in 2011 was filled with military trucks and IFVs so much so there was no place to park a car. Looked like a foreign occupied city. These elections had a record-setting 146% voter turnout. Nope, not a typo.
4) Russia still has jab (including boosters) and face diaper mandates in place. This is mitigated somewhat by people being able to easily bribe doctors to be injected into the vaxxed database instead of into their bodies. That's how most people I know who are still there did it. So at least some benefits to high corruption I guess.
5) Putin is (unironically) one of the WEF Young Global Leaders, confirmed by Ze German Doktor himself. Although the "young" part is particularly hilarious here.
6) Some ethnic groups - e.g. Chechens - are treated as massively privileged by the regime and can do absolutely whatever they want in or outside of the law. The reasons are different than in the West (Putin relies on them as the last line of defense in case of the population's uprising) but the effects very similar.
7) Insane, massive corruption. Even the most corrupt Liberal World Order regimes are not at that level yet. Although in all fairness, they are trying hard to get there.
And so on.
PS: Saved this comment for a spell-check earlier and turns out it was the right decision - as the video was deleted. So I am posting this again.
@donhimesamadaifutari Hitler was a Rothschild?
@donhimesamadaifutari Wut? 🤦🤣
You're totally right except for p.4. Ever since the war started in 2022, no one gives a sh•t about COvid restrictions or face masks anymore.
Spot on about corruption, forged election in 2011, 2012, 2018, 2020 (constitution that let Putin to rule forever), now 2024 presidential is coming. It must be 246% voter turnout and 666% votes for Putin this time!
Mao eventually decided China’s self-destruction had gone far enough, and forcibly removed all the young activists from the cities to work in the fields. Question is, how do we remove all the woke activists in the west from our institutions before they destroy them completely?
@donhimesamadaifutariIs internet back on in lsrаеI?
I usually enjoy your videos but this one is fraught with factual mistakes. The secret police was NOT the only institution that was left after Stalin. In fact, it was severely weakened immediately after Stalin's demise. Putin started displaying authoritarian tendencies very soon after taking over, by establishing control over media and prosecuting every potential challenger. He certainly didn't wait for 10 years. The rapid deterioration of trust and cooperation with the West happened NOT in 2008 or 2009, but in 2011 due to overthrow of Gaddafi and Bolotnaya protests. Oligarchs were NOT old communist party officials. Neither of the biggest 1990s tycoons (Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Fridman, Aven, Khodorkovsky, Potanin, Alekperov, Deripaska, Abramovich) was an old communist party official. Not a single one. Also, there were and are many high-ranking associates of Putin, who had not been his old buddies (Kasyanov, Fradkov, Mishustin, Shoigu, Sobyanin, Patrushev, Bortnikov, Kolokoltsev, Ustinov, Chaika, Volodin, Ivanov, Surkov, Kirienko etc.)
I totally agree with you!!! When Boris Yeltsin was stepping down, he wanted somebody good to fill his place. He did do a lot of research doing and found out about Putin and how he worked with them they’re in Saint Petersburg, and how he was really loyal to his boss.
Putin had the great résumé, but nobody knew him.
Some really really strange things happen like some apartment complexes in Russia started blowing up and Putin would get on TV and he was still relatively young man then maybe 40 and he swore he will have these people down and find them etc. etc. eventually he told the public that he discovered the culprits and they were Chechens, etc. Really?? I always wondered if any of that was true, because nobody knew Putin and this was a way that the public got to know him by him working with the government when Yelton was still in power and vowing talk these people down after blowing up, at least two apartment complexes with bombs.
Everything worked out successfully, and after the catch of the so-called Chechens as the so-called guilty parties, oh gosh, I don’t know what their punishment wasn’t. It could’ve been life in prison, for all I know or death.. if it would’ve been early 20th century to 1954, 1960 I would say they would go to the Gulag but after that it’s hard to say.
The main thing is people in Russia. Got to know Britttany very well and tell him as a hero for catching these criminal culprits he got elected the first time. . After eight years, he did have to step down for four years, but still remaining government is not the party leader. In 2012 he came back and it seems like you should’ve stepped down sometime around 2020 for another four years or so but he didn’t and I guess they had gotten the laws changed. It would not surprise me one bit
Also, him saying Russia has a lot in common with South American dictators, but unlike there it gets cold in Russia and that's a problem. Yes, it gets cold in Russia, but they also have so much NG the average Russian pays almost nothing for it. Then there's diesel, petrol.....And going hungry isn't going to bring Russia down as they're the leading wheat exporter in the world, and also the leading organic wheat exporter.
They will not need water, as one lake has like 30%% of the worlds water alone.
Diamonds for the GF? Yep......that and gold too. over 10% of the worlds Uranium! Nickel.....blah blah blah!
I could almost go on forever.....
There's so much natural resources in that place they may never find all of it.
He also forgot that the in wheat deal Ukraine got almost all of it went to Europe, and Spain was the one country that got more than anyone else.
Russians are just fine and so is Putin....his approval rate there is well over 80%. No leader in the West has ever had that high of one.
@@leeferguson2002 Okay, natural Gas may be cheap, but are boilers cheap, too?
@@DommTom I use NG in my home. I cook with it, I heat my home with it in the winter, I use it to heat my water. I suppose my waterheater has what one would call a "boiler" in it. But otherwise I use no boiler. My neighbors don't use one either. In the videos I've seen from Russia, people there use NG the same way. Now commercially many big buildings use a boiler. They have them in almost all commercial buildings in the US. The price of a boiler isn't something that would cause a total economic meltdown of a nation or culture. I'm sure Russia has been making them for well over 100 years and most of their buildings already have them.
Maybe I'm not getting your question here?
Get to the sauce.....
@@leeferguson2002 boiler = thing, where you transport heat from NG into water to keep things warm.
The persistent predictions of Russia's failure or collapse have been a recurring theme in global discourse, yet these forecasts often prove to be inaccurate. This phenomenon can be attributed to a combination of historical biases, geopolitical complexities, and the resilience of the Russian state.
One reason for the tendency to predict Russia's demise is rooted in historical perceptions. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left an indelible mark on the collective consciousness, creating a narrative of vulnerability and fragility. Analysts and commentators might inadvertently apply this historical lens when assessing contemporary Russia, overlooking its capacity for adaptation and reinvention.
Geopolitical complexities add another layer to this dynamic. Russia's role as a major global player with influence in various regions often invites scrutiny and speculation. Shifts in domestic politics, economic challenges, or international relations can prompt premature predictions of a collapse. However, Russia has consistently demonstrated an ability to weather storms and navigate complex geopolitical landscapes.
The resilience of the Russian state and society is a crucial factor. Despite facing economic downturns, sanctions, and internal challenges, Russia has maintained a level of stability that defies dire predictions. A robust central government, a diversified economy, and a sense of national identity contribute to this resilience, challenging external projections of failure.
Furthermore, predictions are often influenced by short-term perspectives. Rapid changes or crises might lead observers to anticipate a collapse, but Russia has repeatedly shown an ability to rebound and adapt. The endurance of the state and the ability to navigate economic and political turbulence contribute to the inaccuracy of such predictions.
In conclusion, the recurrent predictions of Russia's failure or collapse stem from historical biases, geopolitical complexities, and a tendency to focus on short-term developments. Despite these forecasts, Russia has consistently proven its resilience and capacity for adaptation, underscoring the importance of nuanced analysis when assessing the trajectory of this influential global player.
The very first image while asking "how many fodder for revolution your country have" was of President Figueredo and his staff, of Brazil in the 80s. He did not suffer any revolution, instead ended pacifically the military regimen by enabling elections for a new constitution, direct elections, general amnesty, and stepping off power. A very decent general president.
The current Russian government could collapse at any time, that has happened plenty of times in Russian history. Russia itself as a nation will persist though, as it always has.
FACTS! You summed it up even better than I did! Let's see how well the USA as a nation can manage a total government collapse (every great nation that lasts long ALWAYS goes through some sort of major upheaval at some point)!
@@mrconfusion87Russia has an identity beyond its government America is intrinsically linked to it.
Have a look at Russia as a nation borders in 19th century and now. And there are tens of lesser nations merged under one flag now. Each of them had their traditions, culture, often different language and beliefs
Uh no ? The government is at an all time popularity and there are no signs of collapse happening
@@abdiabdi3225 It's the exact opposite.
Someone time capsule this clip for 5 years and link it in 5 years
I think your takes are generally solid, however I must object to this one. I have Russian friends who are both on Russia's side and on Ukraine's side. But generally they are all fairly nationalist. From the outside I think we do get this picture that our sanctions will cripple their already feeble economy and there will be a revolution when you consider other factors.
But here is my take from talking with my Russian friends, most support Russia in the SMO. Ukraine is ethnically similar however Russia has very effectively snared the west in terms of propaganda. What I mean is, it's firstly about nazism and they point to AZOV, the west says AZOV is no longer bad, Putin says the west is supporting nazis, it's denied by the west but then the Canadian parliment celebrates an SS soldier and not only gets Justin Trudeau to applaud him but also Zelensky. US Neo Nazis started traveling to Ukraine for different reasons. In reality these are all mistakes are small incidents but its a huge propaganda win for Russia.
Then you add the front attacks on Moscow, which instead of making Russia sue for peace were mostly ineffective and caused more to rally and RT took advantage. And keep in mind from the view of Russians watching state TV, Ukraine has received more money worth of assets than russias yearly military budget(actually I think it's 2 years worth almost) and yet their counter offensive failed. And this is where I think the cleverness of how Russia portrays some of their TV commentators comes into play, I forget this one guy's name, but his schtik is to seem like the "inside" guy who knows the viewer also knows the situation, it creates a circumstance that makes the viewer also feel like a highly intelligent in the know person despite receiving public and fairly inaccurate numbers from the Russian MoD.
I also think the culture you established was a bit erroneous, it is true though that they are further along feminism wise, but at the same rate I wouldn't say it's gone as far as it has in the west. In other words, birth rates aren't low because dudes aren't getting their beak wet for the most part, birth rates are low because Russia carries out a massive amount of abortions, condoms sell like hot cakes in Russia, I have no concrete numbers on vasectomies but they usually climb as the economy goes down and it can even be an indicator. Most Russian women wouldn't be considered feminists by the west, this is because gender roles are still a fairly strong thing in Russia, even hypergamy isn't quite the same, most the girls compete with other girls, which could be because of the lack of men and abundance of women.
Russian corruption is still an issue but oddly even outside polling data of russia, Putin has higher favorability than Joe Biden. But the reason is obvious to a lot of people in Russia. Like yeah russia might not be a dream destination for most, but for the Russians in the rural areas, since the war, stuff actually hasn't gotten that bad, and is better in some ways. Imagine being a Russian farmer and no linger facing to compete with western farmers for example.
My thoughts now, I just don't think there is enough evidence to support a revolution even in the next several years. Russia eliminated their biggest threat, and the other factors just don't line up with a revolution. Although this doesn't make Putin a Saint, it just means Putin is an effective authoritarian/autocrat.
I also don't think people not knowing Putin's political party is a sign of a struggling illegitimate government. I don't think most people could guess the political party of South Korea, Japan, or India for that matter. Because the truth is, it's made to be about Putin in Russia whereas ln China, the whole government has a Communist style council of government. An example of this candidate focus being most people also couldn't name the opposing political party Alexei Navalny belongs to. Putin might have trouble if discontent grows but Putin seems to have managed to make sucky life suck less since the war started for a lot(ignoring the conscripted who we don't have data on but can assume most aren't super content)
Very cool of you to recommend another creator’s channel within your video! 👍🏼
I'll come back in 5 years when Russia still hasn't fallen and say "nice prediction."
same.
+1 😂 I think people are predicting Russian collapse from 2014, and China collapse from 2008 😂😂😂 while western economies getting from bad to worse 😢
Yeah, it's a sad truth since Russia's current political regime relies entirely on the learned helplessness which has been the policy of russian states since the Tzar. The population has no experience with political freedom and only knows how to follow the elite class who tell them what to do. Native russians are proud to be russian because the government tells them too regardless of how bad their situation is. China is exactly the same way. Because of this they are both behind the rest of the developed world in terms of living standards, human rights, and natively educated intellectuals. Russia is going to be perpetually punished due to its severe shortage of men and China is the same for women. For all of their political stability estabished and perpetuated through violence, they are destined to fail, especially as China keeps projecting aggression twards trade partners causing investors to seek opportunities in China's rivals like Vietnam and India.
It's also worth mentioning that Russia and China are the only developed countries in the world who's governments are committing ethnic cleansing as Russia is trying to assimilate Ukranians into russian culture and the Chinese are committing genocide against the Uyghurs. You can argue these facts but in the end they are FACTS and are alone reason enough to want the russian and Chinese governments forced out of power and tried for their crimes against humanity.
@@thatguyoverthere9634 thanks for sharing state sponsored propaganda 😂 as we didn't already see it on CNN )))))
Please come back if it also did
I’m pretty sure Russia has more umhf than we are all giving the country credit for. And even if current Russia collapses some northern Eurasian state is bound to replace Russia even if it’s no longer Russia. Russia just happens to be the most successful geographic political cultural force that has existed in the north Eurasian plain to date.
I agree Russia has survived everything thrown at it making it very difficult to se a collapse
"And even if current Russia collapses some northern Eurasian state is bound to replace Russia" Why?
"Russia just happens to be the most successful geographic political cultural force that has existed in the north Eurasian plain to date." And like the Roman Empire ir can be one of a kind and never replaced.
Russia did collapse many times in history... The Time of Troubles in 1612, burning of Moscow during the Napoleon war in 1812, two Revolutions in 1905 and 1917, a civil war, then the collapse of the USSR. So what? A new Russia still appears every time with Russians living in it.
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 holy roman empire....
@@mitchellcouchman1444 Wasnt the Roman Empire.
Fascism could be defined as an oligarchy that cannot be changed through political means. It is surprising in a state where fifteen million people died fighting fascism, that now it is so freely accepted.
in a decadent society you tend to turn your attention outwards in order to stay decadent. its a pretty comfortable position, to say the least.
So Putin must be extremely decadent?
are you serious? again, it is quite easy for someone to direct their attention elsewhere but to itself....anyway in your answer youve already somehow established that putin is at least a bit decadent if not the most one. interesting tehnique @@tremere26
@@tremere26 ive already given my answer but for some reason it wasnt approved. but in a nut shell - my point is look into the mirror
"Declining average height" I observe something completely opposite.
Just because you’re short doesn’t mean you can’t pack a punch. A lot of really good weightlifters aren’t that tall for instance
@@DenofBarjack wow, I am not short Sherlock.
@@jacekszkutnik6294Neither am I short at 6’2’’ but if I was shorter I would still be fine with it
Gonna repost my thoughts from Discord
He says a lot of true thing, unsurprisingly, since he is using really good sources - I would reccomend all of these books
But he makes a few crucial mistakes
He is completely ignoring the authoritarian social contract we have in Russia. Where the people don't get involved in politics and the state kind of leaves them alone
And Putin managed to perfect it during the war. All surplus money is being poured into the social stuff, people in big cities are barely getting conscripted and life SOMEHOW goes on ALMOST completely as normal
With a few caveats, the Russians have mostly swallowed
He also vastly overestimates the religiosity of Russians
Yeah, Russians go to the churc, but it's surface level. Maybe to pray on Christmas or when a loved one dies or to bash boiled eggs on the Easter (it's an Orthodox thing)
Russians overall are not atheists, but irreligious, believing equally in the church and TV mediums
And the Russian Orthodox Church has a terrible reputation, since it's seen as intertwined with the state and aggressively builds churches over parks and public spaces, which antagonizes the locals
The problem with the young people in Russia is that there's not a lot of them and hundreds of thousands are currently dying, getting mauled and mentally destroyed on the frontline
Or flee the country, lmao
The 40-yo men he talks about DO remember the 90s and still see Putin as the savior from THAT
Also, the elites are so dependent on Putin and care so little about what the bydlo thinks, they don't care about Putin losing his legitimacy anymore
The main driver of the uprising in Russia have always been the intellectuals in big cities. They've been jailed or driven out of the country and basically influence nothing. It would take a complete economic collapse to convince regular Russians to rise up.
Gives me whiplash hearing the factual information immediately followed by the idiocy of his own thoughts.
As a Russian you should also know (unless you're 12) that the whole "our best and brightest are leaving woe is me!" is a meme. It is a well understood concept in political science that dissidents and emigres have very little impact at home once they leave the country a la the white emigres. Additionally, Russians have this weird learning disability where they see Santa Barbara and believe it to the the absolute truth about the west. When confronted with reality, Russian emigres are kings of cope. The recent video of Carlson going through the Moscow metro and some emigre saying on Twitter/X (paraphrase) "Yeah NYC subway stinks, has hobos and drug addicts walking around, there's piss and shit everywhere but it's the smell of freedom!"
Really gets your noggin joggin on what autocracy smells like?
The saying "Хорошо там где нас нет!" Is literally peak proof that Russians will forever be the biggest russophobes
Literally all of those revolution preconditions apply for the US...
Yes to but to a lesser degree.
Russia is a "Strongly religious nation"? Is this a joke? Russia in no way religious, the person that is saying so has never even been in Russia, I am not even talking about living in it. Sure, *some* part of the population is religious, may be 10% at best. The rest just don't care about the religion. You may say that everyone here celebrate Easter. Yes, we are. But that's a tradition, nothing more. 75% of the population come to the church once a year to get some holy water drops on their dish, and then proceed to never come to the church again for the rest of the year or caring about the religious dogmas. Yeah, very "religious"
Source: I live here and I can't f**g escape
I was wondering whether or not I should ever visit or move to Russia? Is it really so bad? Do you feel that way because of your politics and/or some other reasons? Sorry, I'm just curious. Sometimes I wonder what might happen to the West, whether we will be forced into war too
Love ur channel man keep it up don’t go mainstream
This dude belongs on cnn
@@tonyneville4425 Fr ,bro will be CNN Ultra-Premium.
I’m an American English teacher in Moscow and from the ground it’s an incredibly high trust society except for systems of control like the government. I have a lot of friends who teach oligarchs kids and of course they’re in a bubble but you can see where the oligarchs are going and it’s nowhere. I know Moscow isn’t Russia as I used to live and teach in Oryol. Out there young people are quite optimistic and everyone is looking to Japan really with a lot of weebs. Most Russians see what’s going on in the west with gender ideology and “refugees” flooding into Europe so they’re trying to avoid both those mistakes. The biggest problem is alcohol as always and there’s just a strong culture of drinking here because the weather sucks and in provincial towns, what else can you do for fun with friends.
It is not the weather bro, it is life sucks
@@newwonderernah its the weather
Life isnt bad
"and from the ground it’s an incredibly high trust society" Clearly youve never seen any actually high trust society.
"Out there young people are quite optimistic and everyone is looking to Japan really with a lot of weebs." Weebs are plentiful, but the war has extinguished any optimism.
"Most Russians see what’s going on in the west with gender ideology and “refugees” flooding into Europe so they’re trying to avoid both those mistakes." By drawing their border arround Čečnija making is so border guards cant keep the mulims out...
"because the weather sucks and in provincial towns, what else can you do for fun with friends." As a latvietis the answer is obvious, board games, video games, ... anything really, drinking is for idiots and russijans.
@@newwonderer Projection and ignorance bro.
Northern Europeans, english, polish drink also. It's a problem of all eastern northern European countries. Or maybe not a problem. It's their way to entertain themselves.
An ageing population may create problems, specially if most people are poor, but in a rich country it's not necessarily a problem. Importing replacement levels of foreigners, as the west is doing, to replace the native population probably has more problems, specially if they're from cultures opposed to the native culture.
But Russia isn't rich and the infrastructure for resource exploitation was imported from the west, this infrastucture will likely decay over time affecting the entire Russian economy.
I remember a video saying “Russia has less that a months left” when they invaded Ukraine and the severe sanctions were implemented.
With sinthezised voice:” Twi years later..””
Do you honestly think that a country collapses in a mounth
Will Durant, with the numberless issues you could raise about him, had a very clear conception of the organic nature of society. I believe he spoke on Revolutionary France, but certainly alluded to the same process occuring in Russia, that cutting a society of it's traditions was like separating an individual from his memories: it could only lead to neuroticism, for both.
Cutting a society from its traditions is what’s happening in the west today. Almost everything is being undermined, right down to the language we speak.
Yes, this was done to many cultures during the epoch of colonialism by the corporate West
@@aide-toietlecieltaidera3724you could see abundant advertisement as fake memory factory.... the way they have studied how fake memory works, that constant bombardment can work that way, making people mental and loose themselves. sort of white room where floor is shaking if there at all.
What’re the problems with Will? I read his philosophy book and am getting his story of Civilization and like to get closest to the truth
@@bathcat3759 I think most of his detractors forget that The Story of Civilization is popular rather than academic history.
One also has to consider the historical pattern of Russian collapses. Russian people are generally very resilient (I'd say more resilient than their western counterparts) and not because they are special breed but because they have been conditioned to accept their dire circumstances as something normal, hence their tolerance for a shit storm is pretty high.
Even if Russia does collapse as predicted in your analysis, it will most likely be another one or two decades of uncertainty, new oligarchy, poverty, etc. (much like in early and late 1900s) but then, after a while, it will bounce back again in some new insignificantly changed form with a new Czar.
In other words, for Russian folk, a yet another collapse is just another bad day among the many they had managed to power through in the past. This goes along with the "Russia doesn't make any sense" principle.
tbh, even to us Russians.
Perun says otherwise
That would have more weight if Russian demographics weren’t in a complete death spiral.
@@sdr24
Before the war. Russia is in death's toilet now
Putin should have focused on space exploration
@@sdr24
Russian democrahpics are close to that of the US and much better than China or Japan and most of western earoupe
Who’d have thunked that an impoverished cleptocracy, with an aging , starting a war, would be a bad thing…
I look forward to seeing this again in 5 years, from a veteran of the SMO with love.
12:00 if nepotism was fatal , America would have been over by 1987 or so
We had high trust in a lot of our social institutions throughout most of our history up and until now. Sure at times some of them were low bit mever not all of them like it is more so now.
@@jonassavimbi4795 I said nepotism,not lack of social trust
FYI different words mean different things homie
It's ok, you'll figure it out I'm sure
@@paulsansonetti7410 I'm not even sure if that comment was meant for you or not lol
Underestimating Russia dose not tend to end well. The points you made are good and valid ones but you underestimate the Russian people I think
I could not agree more. Russians are remarkably resilient.
@@jomakaremarkably dumb they was commies 30 years ago
But what is really remaining of Russia after communism and the fall of said communism? You really don't understand the population nightmare hovering over them
The saying goes that the two people in the world who are the most comfortable being besieged are the Russians and the Turks, but the Turks don't have a character who was a somewhat famous author who left a long correspondence about how much he enjoyed being under siege due to having access to a piano, the way Tolstoy did at Sebastopol.
There have to be Russians to underestimate them
5 years from now everyone’s gonna be pointing fingers at you and laughing.
I have a feeling this video will age very badly
It shocks me when people say China and Russia are "based" and "trad".
they seem trad in comparison to the radical leftist trans culture that currently permeates the West.
Yeah chinas the worst country I can think of
Grasses being greener on the other side.
As a half Slav half Asian it blows my mind how clueless these people are. Trust me. Russia and China are nothing anybody should emulate. Based? Trad? LOL. They always like to forget the insane levels of dishonesty, corruption, scams at every corner, lack of basic morals, and the unusually high HIV and abortion rates. It's always the fools that haven't lived in either country or speak the languages that are so sure of themselves.
Anything compared to the current West, no matter how absurdly different, will always be considered to be more “trad” lmaoo
Years ago i could agree with you, now, I am not saying Russia is okay, it's in pretty bad shape but the West is getting in an even worse shape, culturally, ideologically, demographically, economicall etc., that i am not entirely sure it won't collapse before Russia does.
I think this is much more accurate unfortunately. It's actually kind of comical. Russians are like a 40 year old man and westerners are like a rebellious teenager. Russians not only have experience and apathy toward politics, but also have an inherent strength in practicality and survival. We are teenagers in the west. We are losing our minds with regard to extreme disorder in politics and culture and have no experience or wisdom with how to navigate a decaying society. If it's a war of cultural and economical attrition, Russia will be standing. That is the western hubris I think that really kind of worries me.
Literally how to everything
"I bet a good amount of money, that modern Rusia will not survive" - OK, let's bet and I will take your money in 5 years!
5 years, that's 2028. I will hold you to your claim, cuz it's a bold one
0:25 Based on these criteria, the question is, which is going to have a revolution first, the United States, or Russia?
Putin is popular in Russia. Americans are committing mass suicide.
Probably the US. Russians are basically sheep and will do whatever their government tells them to do.
I don't know which will have a revolution first, but I'd put my money on the US recovering faster.
The US is going to have a reset, not a revolution. A roll back to factory settings and return to a purer Constitutional framework. A revolution would be if the soyboy leftists actually won, which they won't. Rudyard has covered the US quite extensively. But basically, yeah we'll have turmoil here too but it won't be the sort of revolutionary, society collapsing change Russia and China are going to get.
@@hugoguerreiro1078 The US doesn’t exist anymore it’s just a ticking time bomb and you don’t have any supplies.
This might be Rudyard's boldest prediction yet. To be honest, I haven't been too impressed with Rudyard's assessment of the Ukraine war, which is all but won now.
Lynch is a child. His powers of prediction and analysis are poor because he has yet to figure out that you can't trust everything you read. Reminds me a lot of myself at his age.
@@j.w.m.415 I think he’s stated that he only reads stuff that was published after 1960 in one of his QnA’s, which doesn’t bode well for opinion. Also he likes to follow Zeihan a lot, who has a pretty shit track record of predicting stuff(and the stuff he did predict wasn’t just him and was pretty obviously gonna happen like the Ukraine war now). Rudyard needs to read some stuff that he disagrees with like Chomsky for example. I don’t agree with Chomsky but I highly respect his opinions
I think the fact that you are all so worried and feel like you need to comment here to reinforce your positions is testament to the fact that he struck a chord in you, which means his video did something right. Honestly it’s just a dumb TH-cam video, you are taking it way too seriously
It does tremendous damage to rud and zeihans credibility that they never address that the ru ssian sanctions backfired and Ukrain is losing territory and unable to advance
@@ibrahimtall6209 Like france in ww1, but Russia has taken more casualties and is regressing militarily.
I’m curious if you’re religious or atheist? I’m atheist but increasingly think about the importance of religion in society.
Without stating a particular stance, I think I understand it as where I came from whether I literally believe in the mythologies or not.
You make great videos.
Do a video on Portugal, how we went from owners of half of the world to the decaying European country
Owners of half of the world???
@@divyavashisth8242I think he was referring to the Treaty of Tordesillas in 1494! 🤣🤣🤣
Yes yes, russia will fall apart any time now. I mean, it's totally not like we said this shit a year ago when the war started and it miraculously turns out that they are completely fine and trading with the east, no no guys they will fall apart now, because someone on youtube said so. Trust me bro
Two years ago they said Russia would fall apart after a month of sanctions. Now they are saying five years? Come on.
What are you talking about a country dosen't collapse in a mounth
@@debater452 true it take a couple years for a country to fall apart
Who are "they"? I certainly never heard anything like that
@@arhus12"They" are clickbait geopolitical commentators. The number of months before collapse is the inverse of how desperate the channel is for clicks/views🤣. I'm not a Russian sympathist (I hope Putin's regime fails, and the Russians get a better leader), but these proclamations are clickbait.
I dont think you watched the video at all, he makes it clear that he's just guessing based on the research he did, and there's no way to really 'know'
They have confidence in themselves and appreciate their nation.
Anyone listening to this video and reflecting it onto our western societies?
Who up reflecting their Western Societies rn?
Yup similar problems, if not worse, are in western countries
Yup, all the preconditions apply twice as much for the EU and US...
Putin being described as a “secret policeman” is comical. He was a lawyer deep in the bowels of the kgb bureaucracy. It would be like calling the guy who works on spreadsheets in front office of the winning Super Bowl team a “Super Bowl champion”😂😂😂😂
The ignorance in this video is hilarious. Almost as if he intended his audience to be fools.
@@KaosNova2it is, and they are.
Nah uh putin arrested my babushka for owning a beatles album
well he acts like one, how many people has he pushed out of windows?
@@KaosNova2 why? which part?
“The coming fall of Russia”. Given current trends, substitute “Europe” for Russia and you would be correct….
Increasingly interested in your output .
If anyone is interested in further reading on predictors of social revolution, I would recommend the study "Dramatic Social Change: A Social Psychological Perspective".
It looks into predictive factors based on group-sociological and psychological factors, rather than the more economic and sociopolitical elements. The 3 main factors are collective action, relative deprivation, and perceptions of social change. I think both perspectives are important to fully understand the phenomena.
It is truly fascinating how one can talk for 33 minutes on the topic they know literally nothing about. How someone can be so arrogant yet so ignorant is beyond me.
Can you please give some information about your views?
Russian troll detected. Opinion invalid.
@@alm9322Very easy to mark someone as a troll instead of hearing them out
@@Vasily_dont_be_silly It's hard to "hear out" someone that doesn't give any arguments and simply calls someone arrogant.
@@alm9322 So we're still doing that? Damn these Russian trolls and how they ruined Star Wars and brainwashed people into thinking the greatest movie of our time was actually bad. And damn them for convincing people Biden's economy sucks even though, hey, just look at the GDP numbers. What more evidence do you need?
LMAO! Massive projection video. I hope it helps you sleep at night ;)
All of those points apply to European Union aswell.
The difference is that it actually effects the EU
"I am basically guessing" is all anyone should know about this video
Guys who do videos about Russia, respect.
But you absolutely do not understand Russia. Honestly.
From a Russian who lives in the West.
From an American in Russia...
Exactly.
Don't discount the ability of the Russian people to take situations that would be considered intolerable for any other nation.
It’s over bros, he became every other analyst TH-camr
Not a Russian shill --> He became like other youtubers
@@davidescristofaros2241 wtf? You just made me realize Russia is totally going to collapse because the only thing motivating them is being evil and not gay!
They’re going to collapse! 2 more weeks!
@@davidescristofaros2241Bro idk if it's the algorithm, but all I get is Ukrainian propaganda akin to "its over for putin", "total collapse", "Ukrainian tanks outside Moscow", I think Ukrainian shills have a pool of words that are negatively charged towards Russia, throw them at a wall and come out with titles and thumbnails. Pro-Russian shills (Russian speaking ones at least from what I understand) have been deplatformed and moved to RuTube
Hard disagree.. The US and west is waayyy closer to collaspe
We are already on borrowed time.
You make a lot of good points.
There is a point you have missed. The West don't want russia to loose control over nuclear weapons. This is something that favours the status quo in Russia.
the west is obviously not run by rational people
>> in 5 years
lol, very comfortable take to make, no one will remember this vid in 5 years and no one will mock you for the bs "predictions" :D
They said this in 1917.
They said this in 1941.
They said this in 1991.
They say it in 2023, just like they'll say it again some decades later.
They said this in 1917 and were correct.
@@National-Democrat.Ukrainian well Germany helped funding the revolution
They said it in 1917 and 1991 and they were correct. Each time a different state replaced the Russian Empire and each time the replacement was weaker and less developed. The USSR pretend3d at being a modern state but the cost was the death of tens of millions millions of its own citizens. When it died it was replaced by Putin’s Russian Federation. A pale weak shadow of the USSR. The Russian Federation is so weak it couldn’t penetrate more than 100km into Ukraine a country with a 6 billion dollar military budget. When the World watched Russia running away with its tail between its leg from Kyiv at the end of April 2022, everyone except for Putin’s troll knew the Russian Federation was done for and it was 1991 all over and only a matter of time before an even weaker state took the place of the Russian Federation.
@@saccount-z3 Powered with less than 100 modern tanks, 0 jets, 0 attack helicopters, 0 ships, 0 submarines.. The weapons the West delivered to Ukraine are a bad joke.. The russian army, on the other hand, was supposed to take Berlin in a week..
Sniff sniff, I smell a vatnik Ruzzian here. Probs just salty because they are going to be drafted soon.
Society less fragile than the debt based West. Government both less centrally brittle and stronger than in Soviet days. An abundance of natural resources the rest of the world needs. Nuclear deterrents. And five hundred years of resilient Muscovy cultural dominance. I feel neutral about it, but respectfully, Russia appears here to stay.
When you leave out the letter *"J"*
you spend your time confused and unable to decipher what is going on around you or why its happening.
*Once you add it all the pieces fit snuggly into place*
Video number 3938434 discussing the fall of Russia since video devices were invented in 1888.
Well as they say, a prediction about the fall of Russia is right two times in a century