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EDIT - War is inevitable, as you say. And not just against Taiwan. THey could over-run almost all the ASEAN nations before anyone could do a thing about it, and use their client state Iran to do the same in the Persian Gulf. They will also have Venezuela, Cube, South Africa and Nigeria run wild just to help give them time to consolidate the orient and prep to over0run Europe. Interesting times indeed....
As someone from Hong Kong that have moved to London in the UK last year... I am increasingly convinced that for all the various powers of the world, things have gotten to the point of it not even being about 'winning' the Second Cold War anymore. But instead, trying to not be the first one to collapse from self-inflicted social issues.
This is all monsterous projection from deeply insecure westerners who think china is at all in the same kind of mess they are in. I've not seen any chinese people who hate themselves, hate their own countrymen or want the world to end Nearly as much as what happens in the west.
Well, I mean "not collapsing first" was how the US won the First Cold War. We had plenty of our own self inflicted social problems and ironically we're pretty damn socialist, have been since FDR's New Deal. It was less "we're capitalist and their socialists (communists)" it was "we're less hardline socialist as them" therefore we outlasted the USSR. The bits of capitalism and competition allowed in the US (anything that wasn't a threat to the Military Industrial Complex) were able to keep the bullshit socialism aspects we did have propped up. Now tho we've implemented a lot more socialism, every Industry is it's own Industrial Complex now and all part of our centrally planned economy. It's going to shit now, unsurprisingly. Unlike China tho, the US (and West as a whole) can bounce back if we begin to recognize that the "social welfare" crap we've tried implementing for decades is still the same poison China and Russia both ODed on. It's taking longer to get the lethal dose, but we'll get it unless we change course and go back to Free Markets and limited government intervention in the economy. Diluting the poison of socialism doesn't make it no longer a poison, just takes longer to kill you.
@@Lusa_Iceheart the west is already screwed demographically because of migration. Theres no bouncing back, your civilisations for the most part have been so 'enriched' that it will take some truely barbaric practices to reverse it.
I think a perfect example of this, is all the things I read over the years about how great China's bullet trains are or how reliable their Wi-Fi is, but not telling us that they can't drink the water out of the sink. We have had potable water for over one hundred years in the US, this is a purposeful omission, cause every American reporter in the country of China would have had to have known this. News is supposed to inform us of what is really going on, the US and other Western Media failed in this charge at EPIC proportions. Like the collapse of the Soviet Union we were told that the Russians were richer, smarter, more organized, less bigoted, more powerful, and more stable than us. Then all of the sudden they just collapsed. In my lifetime this was the most EPIC failure of the News Media and our Government (what the CIA didn't see this coming and didn't warn us?). It will now happen again in China, and the News Media will have the same deer in the headlights look as when the USSR collapsed.
@@maphezdlin so true 😄 Chinese eat stone because they are so poor 😭🇨🇳 19T GDP is fake by CCP 😭 Virgin revolution happened right now because 1 child policy 😭 China have 1 Billion man and 400 million women and 399 million lesbian 😭 China is collapse help pls 😢
And everyone has the curse of the "education" system. It wastes 12-20 years of people's lives and wastes their youth, while producing weak, stupid useless people. This goes doubly so for STEM. If kids were specialized through private courses and most importantly self-education, from the age of 12, in one engineering field, or one trade, or law or commerce, by the age of 16-20 they would be highly skilled and knowledgeable experts who would be able to work at a medium level position in their (sub)fields. I know a few dozen people, many of which close friends and acquaintances, that by the age of 22-24 are earning 3-7x the average salary, by ditching school as much as possible and doing what I described above.
You'll find the latter in Europe too, honestly. I myself tried getting a job the usual way (as a highschool dropout) after tiring of failed math exams. Just one dead end after another. So by the time I finally asked the local bureaucracy for help, I was so far down that suicide seemed like a plan. It was quite humiliating for a classic liberal like myself, but the only alternative was remaining stuck without a job...forever. So much for rugged individualism. And the old baggage isn't done make life sour for younger generations either. May the ruling class have their names cursed for a hundred years.
@@honorarydarkness1300 "Rugged Individualism" is a romantic aspiration. I am sympathetic to it. But it's an aspiration, not a rule. That's what localization, parish, federalism and community is for. For example, community is still a thing with lower class suburban and rural Catholic Parishes via the 'Sister Parrish" program and such. Big Government has quashed it to societies detriment. That's why we have Federal agencies spying on Catholic churches. Traditional American "rugged individualism" is an illusion as people had more cohesive families and parishes to help them out and set an example as opposed to a federal level program. btw I happen to be Catholic so I can only speak to American Catholicism, but I think other communities i.e. Amish, Muslim, Evangelicalism and Mormons suffer somilar scrutiny. To quash localism in order to enforce dependence. The ruling class are the hippie boomer marxists of the '70's. This isn't new.
I think we have the curse of not having a financial education. Once you understand money, you can make it work for you and it comes rolling in. Instead, Americans saddle themselves with debt buying dumb status symbols.
I'm almost 60 and have been hearing that China is bound to fall my entire life. Historically, Chinese accept mass casualties and calamities on a scale that makes Russians look like debutants.
I’m not sure why the West is so determined to think China will fall. It’s like they’re scared of them. In China, my Grandfather nor anybody gives two shits about the West. We live, work, and die. We fought against the foreign Invaders of Japan with glory, many died but we are still here. They say we are filled with Anti-Western Propaganda, when this is the bullshit that many Westerners consume.
Yes. I'm "only" almost 40 but I have also heard about the impending Chinese collapse for most of my life. I do think the collapse warnings have gotten somewhat more frequent recently but I can't tell whether that's actually because collapse is more likely or just because people are more interested in dramatic news about China right now and that's what gets clicks. I guess we'll see, if China doesn't collapse in the next decade or so, this video can join the big pile of wrong predictions on this.
Funny I've heard since my youth that we'd better learn mandarin because China would own the United States 😂 at this juncture I do not believe that to be true because their plans in alliance with bad actors within the government have been greatly thwarted by the good people of the USA
Well that's the big difference between western and occidental societies and Chinese, we have values and we grow up believing that our life and others life is important, our system is based on people life, while chinese values are only for maintain the system running, who cares if half people disappear while system don't fall. You are saying clearly why china never can go far of their frontiers, people outside Chinese society value life more than anything, even more than any government. You are just a number while we are living people, occidental values will never match with chinese, we don't even need do a war with china, you already kill yourself between chinese and don't care at all, is just matter of time to you repeat your history again, like on the video says. That's the point of the video, older will fall with the next crisis, no matter if is next decade or next century, your civilization are on bucle repeting again and again, and next version of chinese society i dont know how will be but im sure will be with young people only. I'm not American, but I'm my country says "crisis come slowly but when it arrives nothing can't stop it" I'm surprised you are old and don't know that most crisis don't start from one day to another, are mostly from things that happens 20 or 50 years ago, when something broke and you just notice the error now with decades of delay
"Society" is essentially the proxy word for "trusting individuals cooperating". If trust is lost, individuals stop cooperating, and society ceases to exist by definition. And trust is very hard to build. It takes time, sacrifice, and good counting skills. Incidentally, this is how you escape the poverty of low-trust communities - You practice counting, eventually notice who's stealing from you, and save yourself the loss, thus getting richer. You notice who's doing fair business, and build rapport over time. When honest people accumulate wealth together... we call that civilization.
China is a strange duck from a Western perspective. China is high trust in family members and in their collective Chinese identity. On the same token, most chinese citizens don't trust their government and have a "just keep your head down" mentality. Remember, any Chinese citizen with a secondary education is part of the upper class, and only they have a vested interest in upholding the Chinese system as it is today. All figures and statistics for Chinese institutions are doctored to make the nation look better.
That definition/explanation makes it clear why some people maintain that civilization is inherently racist. (All other things being equal, trust is always higher in-group than it is between groups, and all groups are ALSO not equal in trustworthiness or other qualities relevant to civilization. Thus, any actually existing civilization will privilege an ingroup somewhat and exclude some outgroups.)
I don’t think the PLA would side with any rebellion simply because they are not loyal to the State. The PLA is a branch of the Communist Party, and is completely loyal to the Party. They are different from nearly every other army on Earth because of this. Political loyalty in the PLA is absolute.
You can think of the PLA-CCP relationship in the same way you can think of how the Waffen SS was related to the Nazi Party. They do not exist to protect the country or its people. It exists purely to enforce the rule of the party itself and ensure it remains in power. Whether it's for fighting against an invader or being the invader, it's not done for the nation or its citizens, but to make sure the party grows in strength or is defended. Many mainland Chinese do not know the difference between the State and the Nation, since the communists have indoctrinated them to believe they are one and the same. But eventually the filth of the CCP will fade away, as all governments eventually do, but the people and country will still remain.
History is littered with examples of armed forces that swore loyalty to the political body in charge, only to be the first to plant the proverbial knife when things reached boiling point. The PLA will remain loyal only as long as there are seen to be benefits in doing so. If enough of the soldiers come to the conclusion that the regime is outright harming them, whatever oaths they swore on recruitment won't matter.
When I was in China I met young guys who were making around 3000 yuan a month. The rent in my apartment was 2000 yuan a month and it was a studio. I don't blame Chinese men for giving up.
I'm Taiwanese and I want to comment on the "eat bitterness" part. If I heard "eat bitterness" from a person with seniority, it normally wouldn't mean the life is gonna go bad, but more of expect and endure the struggles through life as a step of person growth. It's just a really common phrase the elder would tell to the young.
@Johnnyynf American here, a concern I have had for a while is that Chinese Culture and Language in Taiwan is way more healthy and alive than in China proper. Communists have a terrible habit of destroying language and so I think the eat bitterness may be self referential. Not saying your are incorrect but that you may be more correct than what the CCP really means.
@@kyledrake9208 I've heard the same. Mainland Chinese that I met who'd been to Taiwan were very impressed with the people there. And having worked with Ukrainians and seen how utterly rude and obnoxious they often are, I've come to the same conclusion about communism: it degrades everything
@@kyledrake9208 Just to interject, the phrase is very common as johnnyy said, kinda like if american parents tell their child to work hard. should not be possible to interpret differently imo
I'm a young engineering graduate straight of university, the best university in Canada. What I don't understand is why I wasn't hired by some engineering firms, multinational corporations during the GFC. I sacrificed everything in life, social skills, health, to be the number one student, and the reward should be a cozy cubicle job. Instead I went to China to teach English. Now close to 40 I'm still a young graduate, I should be driving society, creating ideas, putting my intelligence to use.
My father was the same engineering graduate who worked for Hewlett-Packer in the late 1970's when the economy crashed he was angry about the situation but hated the culture within the company and began his own business in which I believe he was happiest and successful 😂 nothing new under the sun just cycles of dips and rises
One more thing i completely spaced on, is that their are both Qing and Ming Dyansty members still alive, and a few rebel groups also support them. A return to Imperial China would seem likely since as discontent with the communists has risen, ive noticed way more pro Imperial sentiment, even amongst Taiwanese
I don't remember the US not paying. They hold US treasuries! If the US wanked it's number one holder of treasuries no other country would buy them ever again. Without those treasury sales our debt spending would vaporize. Why is everyone so dense here?!
@@STEP107 do you know they just raised the debt cealing? or are you retarted imagine thinking U.S dollar has any real value they can just print out more and more like in 2020
1:03 Rudyard, while my country (Nigeria) may trade a lot with China, we are not a strong Chinese ally. They rejected us for BRICS membership (mainly due to our stronger western ties) and when the USA and other G20 members offered us a more solid membership, we gladly took it. We are actually more aligned with the west than many people realize. We have stronger diplomatic, military and economic ties with the west. Heck! We also have a long-standing relationship with India. China is an major economic partner for us but not a strong geopolitical one.
The Christian south is more align with the West but not the Muslim North. Also Nigeria is going to become a muslim majority country with 491M people by 2075.
@@feliz2892yeah, you would think so but in terms of actual policy and outlook, both the north and south are more allied with our allies here. Regardless of party changes, the geopolitics of Nigeria tends to be fairly uniform. Thus, we still maintain ties with the west. This is mainly due to closer proximity to Europe and our socioeconomic, political and cultural history with the British and others, which makes us more aligned with them. Plus, for security in the unstable north and maritime south, we tend to prefer working with the Americans and Europeans for weapons and training and security detail. Even during military rule, our ties to the west were maintained. Former president buhari was the only one who tried to change this by trying to make us more of a Chinese ally mostly so that he could leverage more cheap Chinese loans for his failed projects and that didn't go well and just indebted us.
Perhaps a perspective to consider. With the one child policy, that one child is very very valuable to two families. How does a war with large casualties (some potentially on the Chinese mainland) impact the willingness of the population to support a war for Taiwan?
At the end of Eastern Han Dynasty around the beginning of the 3rd century around 200 BC, the destruction and collapse of the nation caused the death of about 4/5 of the population. The population went from the peak of about 50 million down to about 10 million in a span of 100 years. The second time such thing happened was around the collapse of the Tang Dynasty around the 10th century. Again, the massive war and the resulting famine and disease reduced about 4/5 or 80% of the population.
remember: no one really replaced Rome after the western collapse, Byzantium is a remannt not a replacement there was also no "replacement" after the Abbasid or Mongol collapse, it was just a free for all
the byzantines were called 'romans' by foreigners, called themselves 'romans' and formed an unbroken line from the fall of the republic to the fourth crusade. in truth, the 'byzantine' empire was the Roman Empire of the medieval period. they proceeded to be wholly replaced by the Ottomans so the above statement is only really true for the western half of the empire. that being said the western empire certainly did have replacements in the form of germanic tribes who were already integrated into western roman society as their military and proceeded to maintain the status quo from the imperial days far beyond what most people believe. it's just that no one tribe filled the entire power vacuum left by the imperial court in milan (the city of rome itself was nearly abandoned for almost a century by the time romulus augustulus was deposed)
Rome collapsed because it got invaded by a mass migration from the east. The Mongols collapsed because they were an empire of military conquest which could only survive based off its ability to suppress rebellion.
Rome went from the two pillars of iron, to the ten toes of iron and clay. Part strong and part weak. It was never really conquered. It just sorta fell apart.
People always incorrectly say that the Chinese are servile, but the reality is that they are only obedient citizens until the ruling dynasty has lost the Mandate of Heaven, at which point they become the most rebellious and unruly people in history.
thats a load of ahistorical fop. Actually read some chinese history. Chinese dynasties only collapse for all the reasons any state collapses, an inability to maintain power, foreign conquest or internal coups. There is no historical precedent of an actual chinese dynasty just toppling to spontaneous peasant uprising because leaders were 'immoral'
In suprised the west hasn’t created some sort of structure/future country to take over China (which can be used as a western puppet) since there is a huge diaspora of Chinese in western countries, like there’s already the separatist movements for tibet and East Turkmenistan but why isn’t there one for a new China The west can easily reveal the atrocities and have the Chinese people here turn on their gov back home
The Mandate of Heaven is just a more poetic version of the Social contract concept of Hegel. So even if CCP tossed it out it's still there as its not specifically for the Chinese people. It's applicable to every one
The micro apartments aren't their homes, they're work dorms unless you're in Tier 1 cities. After 10 years when workers Bodies are destroyed they go back to their village, where their family has a home and money saved up to buy a new house. The problem is good public schools lead to good jobs which are in expensive tier 1 cities, otherwise its actually affordable to buy a house in a tier 3 cities.
The only concerns I have about your prediction of an invasion of Taiwan are: 1) How will the populace react when their sons, (you know, the ones that are supposed to care for them in their old age), start coming back in body bags? 2) The CCP has been watching very closely how the world reacted to Russia invading Ukraine. From a strategic point of view Russia had a much easier position to attack Ukraine from. An aerial and amphibious assault against a prepared enemy is a meat grinder. Ask any Dieppe veteran. 3) The CCP likes to THREATEN the invasion, but like most bullies don't really want to actually fight. Once they invade they can't just talk the talk, and that is something that they have gotten a lot of mileage from. It's a lot tougher walk the walk. 4) How will the CCP maintain control when the people they rely on when things get real are on their way to Taiwan? I think the CCP has to focus on keeping an already unhappy, unemployed population under control. They have already reinstated Mao era distrust of foreigners and snitching on one another. I lived there from 2017-2020 and enjoyed my time there. I worry about my friends and former students that still live there, but its a powder keg. I wouldn't return.
Because most nations have an enemy occupation force pretending to be a legitimate government. They want to burn down our world to ensure they can live as godkings forever.
@@duncanharrell5009 Most of the big ones are run by stupid, self-serving, incompetent apparatchiks whose total knowledge of statecraft is how to loot it. And reformers are opposed because they're outsiders who want to change the system. Party's over. But the longer they drag out and pretend (like financing all their wants and dreams with debt they expect their grandchildren to pay...), the worse the final result will be.
Its only catastrophically bad here lol! Much worse in Chjina, but the CCP of course don't tell you this, and the cathederal in America loves everything the CCP represents - its what they want here. Fortunately I don't think either will win in the end.
I actually think for all its intent and purposes, the US will come out just okay. Traumatized yes but still marching along. But Asia? I actually think that region is about to tear itself apart. @@content_enjoyer4458
It feels like two people with different types of cancer, where one person has had the cancer that has already gone through their entire body while the other person had their cancer found early. One's going to die, maybe within weeks. There is no hope for them. The other might survive with the right treatment. That treatment will make them sick and miserable and they may wish they were dead. A mistake such as doing a biopsy wrong or not removing a tumor properly could spread the cancer and doom them. Even if they fight as hard as they could their body might still fail. But there's still a chance. There's still hope, if one does not give up.
"It's so quiet." "It's the deep breath before the plunge!" Now that was depressing... never ever in my life would I have thought to see such times. Both here and over there...
No wonder the chinese youth is so much into anime and anime aesthetics. No joke; when you are not religious, you work too much, no woman wants you, your family is no good the only way to cope is idolizing stories and entertaiment and anime is perfect for that.
@@hornetguy9063as bad as it is this makes me so interested In how this plays out, I’m such a nerd for saying that but damn We’re really witnessing history play out that will be talked for centuries “The second Cold War, which side commits suicide quicker” as much as I hate how much the US is favoring and protecting elites that want a China like N.w.o I’m gonna say it’s gotta be the Us As much as l like that Russia is banning as many zenoestrogen chemicals (estrogen mimicking chemicals found in majority of modern food) I think America would win this, while Europe is gonna be pretty shitty but still survive maybe similar to a post Soviet Eastern Europe type state I think a country like Mexico will be very successful after the war tbh because of its non involvement
revolutions are rare. They require multiple factors to succeed: 1) a weak ruler who is inflexible and not creative at solving the current political problems 2)a divided ruling class 3)mass public discontent 4)cross-class alliance(the dissatisfied faction of the ruling class aiding the discontented public) 5)the authorities unwillingness to use force to quell the revolution.
Well, let's see how many there are in this case: "1) a weak ruler who is inflexible and not creative at solving the current political problems " To be fair, Xi Jinping is a fairly strong but inflexible leader. While it's true that he's educating young children with his ideas, it remains to be seen how willing the rest of China's governement class is to follow him to death. China has multiple local governements that rule millions of people. It'd just take a couple to break the country apart and to kick-start another warlord period. "2)a divided ruling class" They do. They fucking do. There's no trust among members of the central governement, and there are divides between the central and the local governements. "3)mass public discontent" 30 millions of young chinese won't have a wife, and that's perfect cannon fodder for a revolution. WW1 had 11 millions of deaths, WW2 50 millions, and 30 millions of angry young men is more than enough manpower to destroy a country. France has 60 millions of people, imagine half of France armed and revolting: it'd take a gigantic effort to quell them down. To this, add how many young people stopped caring about future or ideology because they consider their life doomed. The yt channel "China Uncensored" shows quite well how millions of people just gave up or plain don't support the central governement. "4)cross-class alliance(the dissatisfied faction of the ruling class aiding the discontented public)" Maybe the Shanghai's clique could fit this role, even though in China there's the concept of Mandate of Heaven: when the current ruling class sucks, common people can definetly become the next ruling class as long as they're virtuous and capable. New leaders would arise and compete to get the control of the new central governement, and these leaders of tomorrow could be young poor folks today. "5)the authorities unwillingness to use force to quell the revolution." It's not only a matter of willingness, but also a matter of army's loyalty to the central governement and army's sympaties to the revolutioners, which are mutually exclusive. Realistically, a sizeable portion (mainly the old guard) will support the CCP, while another sizeable portion (the young guard) will support the revolutioners. This will tear the country apart. To this, add the possibility of local governement revolting and raising local armies. The PLA will become fractured, and look at the Russian Empire: the white army, with centuries of experience and foreign support, still lost to the red army because the communists had people's support. The young guard defeating the ol guard is not unrealistic. In conclusion, China has all the cards to have a revolution soon. It's a ticking-bomb, and no one outside will know when it will explode until it will actually explode
Thank you. That fact we live in the "Post-Revolutionary Era" really deludes people. We had a handful of notable revolutions -- connected to the Industrial Revolution -- and now people think the option is always on the table, when it simply isnt. "Revolution" is such a cope for most people. They mentally masturbate to the fantasy that "one day the working man will wake up, and have enough." But revolutions are almost exclusively started by the ruling class, and the working class just jumps on board. It drives me insane. You can't even have a discussion about actually trying to fix the things that could be fixed because everyone is huffing the copium of revolution.
There were only a few "people" revolutions, French, Russian, and the Israeli's under Roman rule. Those are the ones I can think on the top of my head. @@WilliamMcAdams
Very insightful point at the beginning about the Western Managerial Class having a long running romance for authoritarianism. I was born in 1982, as a kid living in California and Hawaii, I was constantly being told that I needed to learn Japanese if I wanted to be employable as an adult, because it was obvious that the Japanese were going to overtake the USA. Fast forward to when I was in college in the early 2000's and everyone was talking about learning Chinese. Westerners also have a habit of over estimating the strengths of the Asian social and economic model.
My Dad worked for a Chinese company that has a branch here in the states to be close to the auto companies. They laid off everyone last week. My Dad showed up to work and his boss, the local VP, was already let go. The word around the office is that things in China are much worse than we know.
I was sent a message by a student I used to teach. It said "I work in a public fund nowadays and as you know the capital market is getting worse so it's a very tough time for us. I don't even know if there is a future. Seems like our economy is collapsing"
You have to remember a few key points about the Chinese economy: Most forms of wealth-gathering are not allowed, forcing a large amount of household wealth into the stock market and the real-estate market; China's real-estate market makes up as much as 1/3rd the entire Chinese GDP, largely fueled by country-wide price speculation that the housing prices will always rise making large portions of the population view real estate as an investment rather than a very expensive purchase; Chinese bankruptcy laws don't really have a way for the average citizen to escape overwhelming debts, meaning that this housing crisis can't really be passed onto the banks without mass refusal/inability of the public to pay off their debts; China's population is shrinking as a direct result of the One-Child Policy affecting Chinese society for decades, and it will continue getting worse because the crashing economy will incentivize everyone to avoid starting/expanding a family at this time; and of course, China's Wolf Warrior diplomacy has strained all foreign diplomatic relationships to their breaking points just as China's economy spent 3 years screeching to a halt under the disastrous Zero COVID lockdowns. Even if the predicted revolution doesn't happen, China's role in the global economy will be massively reduced for decades to come...
@@nadrewod999I don't know how they're going to survive all of that. If I was a greedy, high ranking Chinese politician, I'd be looking for a way to flee the country immediately.
To be honest, as a Chinese who grow up in China, I really don’t think the civil war will happen that soon, at least in the next 10 years. The pla army still loyal to the party and that fact never changed even through the great famine and culture revolution. But definitely the party might highly likely collapse within 10 years. And Xi might be if not the last, but second last chairman in CCP history
I don't see a lot of internal division ideologically that would see civil war happen, either. I can see the PLA abolishing the CCP in order to placate the public if living conditions get worse than they already are, though. Most likely then it will be despotic similar to Thailand's political system or 1960s South Korea.
@@shorewall That is true for a certain degree. I would say many Chinese young people still have some romantic fantasy about war (especially towards to Taiwan). But when actually war happens, these will be the first to want to quit. At the moment, these crazy nationalists might hijack government’s decision, which further increase the risk of invasion of Taiwan
@@shorewall all the same no one will die in a revolution to overthrow the party. The party might collapse through burocratic means where it basically just stops pretending to be communist anymore. But thats not going to result in the kind of violence this video is predicting.
It is such a tragedy to learn that so many people in China and other countries died over failed governing and atrocities. What's more saddening is that history is seemingly about to repeat itself, again. When I grow older and see more the dark sides of people, the more I realise the biggest enemy of us all are always ourselves, our tendency of corruption, jealousy and exploitation. That's why we need a set of civilized values, society and governing systems to check our worse impulses. I hope that if the tragedies in the next few decades for humanity are unavoidable, at least what comes out of it will be a better world for the future generations to come.
1. Dating is still alive and well in China and better than you think, it's getting married and having kids that's difficult. 2. Most people own property in China with many owning multiple properties, it's not like everyone lives in tiny one room shacks. 3. The fertility, much like South Korea's is doomed. If you're an average guy with an average income/net worth it'll be difficult to start a family especially if you're marrying only for love/attraction. 4. You are right. Most young Chinese males have no reason to support the CCP, most won't be able to get wealthy even with hard work, start a family, or really have any rights at the end of it. They can only be beat down to not rebel, but that's not sustainable for building a long-term society when most just give up on life and lay flat.
I guess a future where china just chugs along and never takes over the world but and people are also too apathetic to revolt, doesn't make for a good video. Clickbaiters gonna clickbait.
The properties ‘owned’ are investments and often (for younger families) not even built yet and in the city. The shack myth is rather exaggerated, yeah but with a grain of truth. The mainland has become quite stratified
Sad thing is that China is one generation from being a lot chiller. I’m half Chinese and my cousin lives in China and is Chinese. His generation likes transformers, western music, and want everything that the rest of the youth of the world wants. Once the generation that went through the intense trauma ages out everything will change. If we can maintain the tenuous status quo for 10 more years everything will be different… Detant is the name of the game
Are you sure about that? The younger generation is being suppressed, not replacing the previous one. Also China looks more like an apparatus of the deep state than its own agent right now, it operates to help entrench power in the hands of leaders of other countries.
Hegelian dialect. What comes after fascism? Stakeholder capitalism? What comes after that fails? We will never achieve a utopia on earth, no system will bring us that.
@@Boz196Accepting that truth would be awesome really. Politics would be much more productive in creating a system that is just "good enough" (or if you are a little more ambitious "as good as reasonably possible") while we let religion deal with our existential angst.
@@Boz196 our utopias fail because human beings are shitheads. in every system the most ruthless people get to the top because they're the ones willing to do anything and step over anybody to get there. any ideology is doomed to fail if it requires, or assumes, that we are capable or willing to rapidly change our human nature. and communism is definitely guilty of this. which is probably a large part of why the body count is so high in communist countries. our isms will never get us to a utopia, not as long as we're kept fighting with each other and pushing others down to raise ourselves up. even a perfect system would be ruined by very imperfect people, and communism is a very imperfect system.
The South stands a good chance of going it's own way, the worst will happen in the North and the Interior. I'm not talking sucession, just reverting to how the South usually behaves when central power collpses ( more than twenty times, by now ! )
sleep well everyone I live in UK and we are being replace by the utopias agender we are all going through this, hold on to a higher sense of stander and just do the best you can.
YT keeps removing my comments so I will simply say that the people that sit on a carpet 5 times a day are replacing us in the UK. It happened to the Celts and now it's happening to us.
I’m writing that video this week. This video was already completed. You’re getting two other videos I’ve already completed before too, before the cia video
@@WhatifAltHistPlease god dont do the incel revolution video. It doesnt even work in priciple. Anyone charasmatic enough to lead it would just get laid normally
I read an interesting stat from the U.S border patrol earlier today; they have seen a massive uptick in Chinese citizens illegally crossing the U.S border with Mexico over the last year. They estimate over 24,000 Chinese nationals crossed in 2023.
The world realized almost 60 years ago that it can easily deal with its disodents by just letting them flee to the US. Its one of the reason Cuba has managed to survive. Its easier to just encourage your domestic enemies to leave to the New World than "Deal with them" at home.
It's notable that ALSO in the last few years (since the 2020 lockdowns), the Chinese government has started making it nearly impossible for Chinese citizens to receive the paperwork they'd need to travel to the United States. I don't have a source, but I bet if you looked it up the spike in illegal immigration from China has a matching dip in the amount of legal immigration from China. It may even be down overall, since it's become much harder and more dangerous in general. The legal channel has almost entirely broken down, I think that's probably related information.
I question OP's @themightydropbear credibility. A cursory glance of the US ICE annual report released in December 2023 doesn't show significant numbers of Chinese immigrants increasing in frequency over the past 4 years. Only several hundred each year, vastly inferior numbers compared with traffic of other nations. www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-releases-fiscal-year-2023-annual-report Now I will politely ask, "Source?"
Quick question: have you actually been to China? There's a lot of videos with people going "blah blah China has this and that problem," and they've never even been there. I can't take any of that seriously.
Based on the duration of numerous dynasties since the Qin (which was the first large-scale Chinese empire), the probability of a Chinese revolution is about 1 out of 3 chance by 2060. Not a certainty but bettable odds.
I should've watched this when it came out. This Video is a Masterpiece. Whatifalthist has outdone himself again. Seriously, This Video should warrant him becoming more Recognized in Government, Economics and so on. Dude should be giving talks in official Forums of "Enlightened" People tbh. I think the statement here in the video that spoke to me the most is him calling out how Westerners LOVE to hate their own country when its not even that bad, the same can be said for my country despite not being a western one, though westernized.
0:40 We should also not tilt too far away from pessimism about the US to imagine that China will just explode by itself. As a South Afrian, its essential to understand that societies can fall apart for decades without any big "bang"
I am from china and I have many families back in china who loves the current chinese nation and its status quo, and trust in its capacity of being a peaceful and safe society, and there is no way of telling them otherwise, it is quite sad.
Maybe. Looking at china from a western lense thats heavily distorted with propoganda doesn't give you an accurate measure of things on the ground in china. You know Douyin isn't banned in the west right? You can just look at people in china doing their thing.
Little pinks for now but when they go hungry while the party hogs fatten themselves at the expense of the people they'll turn all the same as many have waking up to reality.
because they are correct, actually you can basically make a video like this for every country in the world, so the only place suitable for us to live with a bright future is outer space :D But what if we can also make a negative video about the outer space civilization :D
Well yeah because the CCP is very efficient at most actually brainwashing thier own citizens into believing that just like they pretend the Tiannamen Square Massacre never happened
Yeah literally the luckiest people on earth. Has been peaceful for hundreds of years. No wars. No revolutions. Is rich as fuck. Is insanely beautiful. Schweiz is literally a paradise@awesomestevie27
What concerns me is the massive amounts of debt that China and other countries like the United States have. I know there are some thinkers that say it's not a bad thing, but I can't help but feel it will just lead to a massive devaluation of monetary systems worldwide and lead to a worldwide depression...Unless there is a massive debt forgivness between nations.
China has imploded into warlord periods more than once, lol. Across the sum of Chinese history, more of it has been spent in inter-dynastic warlord and fractured state periods than years spent in a unified dynasty. The collapse of the CCP dynasty into a long period (possibly centuries) of several disjointed successor states fighting with each other would be the expected continuation of the roughly 4 millennia long cycle China has played thro. The outlier really is how SHORT the last inter-dynasty period was (the last Civil War was functionally a warlord period) and that lasted like over two decades. Quite probably that the next Warlord period will be extremely bloody and violent at first but then quickly simmer down into distinct borders of each warlord/faction.
I remember at the height of the Evergrande crisis I was working as a private equity real estate funds investor. I did some research with an MD who was really concerned about it and one of the stats that shocked all of us was that 70% of Chinese household income is tied up in real estate. A few years on, and there’s no indication that that number has dropped. For reference, right before Lehman crashed and started 2008, US household income was only about 25% in real estate.
Evergrande has like 300 billion with a b liabilities and their Hong Kong branch was just court ordered to be liquidated. The CCP has been keeping that giant corpse alive since they know what happens if that thing implodes, and they can't prop it up forever.
@@Rusu421 I mean that could have been a possibility, especially because data on China is so unreliable. My intuition is that China actually sandbags a lot of their concerning data just like they did with COVID and their population numbers, so if anything the typical Chinese household’s financial situation might be even more precarious than we thought.
A Chinese student I used to teach messaged me last month saying that he worked in a public fund and he "didn't know if there was a future because our economy is collapsing"
That's weird, I know we're talking about averages But my Mom was 28 at marriage, my Dad's 5 years older, and they had 3 children by 34 and 39. So genetically successful. My Mom didn't work a job or business after marriage. Very traditional. I'm saying that it's possible to keep breeding after 28. But I know that averages are different and the average when my parents were getting married and having kids (1980-1985) was much younger.
Love that you addressed this. I have been telling my wife for at least 2 years that China has serious problems and I am worried for it's people. There will likely be something between large scale loss of life to biblical level destruction in the coming years to next generation
brah... talking to women about politics and macronomis is a waste of time... women just simply dont give a shit. women, just like chinese shamed based culture are entirely uninterested in truth and only interested in what makes them look good. for her to spout the truth you are trying to teach her will make her look bad in front of other women and chinese, so she simply just don't give a fuck
As someone from HK, it's fkin insane how unhinged and hilarious this video is. People in the west have no idea how powerful/united China actually is as a country and as a people, compared to many other developed countries. You don't get to be the world's factory without advanced manufacturing capabilities and world class infrastructure. People these years love to overestimate the demise of China. And time will prove them wrong again and again.
@@hgos7211 looks like we found a 50 cent army shill. Capital markets are fleeing China right now, demographics are collapsing, the communist party has serious internal tension. As, for the culture and society of China, it is the land of short cuts and facades. The culture of China was destroyed in the cultural revolution and the people are not united in any way. Limited culture, lack of religion, and they are just cogs in the CCP machine. Brain washing/ indoctrinating works but only to a point. The CCP will lose control of the situation. Likely at great human costs as historically happens in power struggles, especially in China.
I couldn't care less about its people. They are without a doubt the most selfish neurotic people I've met in 60 countries visited. Utterly unreliable and given to acts of extreme spite if you make them lose "face" - I will simply be trying to keep myself safe from anything the CPC might try to stir up in the West
What makes China so powerful are the US & EU investors. Who began their mad rush to China 40 years ago and are still at it today. Today all those US & EU investors enjoy pretty comfortable incomes through their investments in China. They are the ones who can and will stop anyone (Including any military)from hurting the Golden Goose - China. Of all the variables you've listed, money is the most important and most powerful. Show Me The Money!
@@random_shit_online6104 i am an indian myself too me it depends on bjp if they alienate minorities too much we can see social tensions if they take up a moderate approach we are good but the problems of diversity and all will always existt tooo mee i am not a supporter of any of it but i dont see a bright future cuz of diversity of thought and also we dont have a proper national identity
@@kanwarchahalThe future of India is an ethnostate with a monolithic culture and a dominant Hindu faith based replacement of everything secular. The deterrents and renegades will either have to conform or leave. And the day we replace this vaccous post colonial bureaucratic machinery with a monarch, from that day onward our spiritual destiny shall start to be fulfilled. And it shall end when our land stretches from Arakan to Nuristan, and from Gilgit to Maldives.
@@Aethelwulf_of_Westseaxe take into consideration muslim populations of pakistan and bangladesh and maldives you think they'll conform to your ideas also the sikhs too 🤣
I live in China, since the end of covid there has been little to no economic growth I don't see any foreigners in Beijing and all the new policies such as allowing people to buy homes in Guangzhou (bigger than 120m²) is just another reactive policy a lot of Chinese have moved to Singapore, etc and there is a new word called 润学 as lots of young people want to leave China
They could start granting true ownership rights instead of leases from the govt. I think it's too late for china to be a great world power but if the democratize now they could still save a sizeable chunk of what they've achieved.
Not really. I work for JPM and we've just published a big report on the future of Chinese housing. China is transitioning to a new housing system based on affordable housing and public housing, rather than speculative housing. Download the report and read it, it's all you need to know.
As someone who has watched China covering TH-cam channels for a few years I have a few points to add. First, China is facing a similar housing unaffordability as the West. However, to clarify, the Chinese built so many cities that they have more housing units than people. Let that sink in. Second, Most independent population estimates that I have seen put China's population at around 950 million with the highest estimate being 1.289 billion and a population in decline since 2018. Third, much of the missing population is in the younger demographics. Fourth, after the white paper rebellion Laowhy86 reached out to his friends in China and had them contact people they knew who took part in the rebellion. Everyone had already disappeared. Overall, I am not very confident that the Chinese citizens (military is different) will be able to pull off a rebellion with the lack of youth, tight state control, and a docile culture among other factors. I see a change in dictatorship (i.e. a military coup) as more likely.
On the topic of religion, I think China is ripe for prophets to establish new religious expressions. China already has a rich religious tradition but its varied and disorganized. It has a millennia old stories, gods, practices, and other things that would be coopted by a new religion. It will probably contain elements of buddhism, daoism, and/or christianity
China is set to over take the USA as the country with the most Christians over the next few years I believe. despite the communist parties best efforts to persecute them. Christianity has often done well under persecution. Christianity has also spread very fast in South Korea. The Islamic world has been perfectly happy to ignore what China has been doing so I wouldn't hold out much hope of them having much influence.
Falun Gong is really the dark horse candidate here. They have millions of followers in China despite suffering 25 years of persecution and established a base of anti-CCP operations outside China early on, building up a powerful media organization that reaches a good chunk of the overseas diaspora and even inside the PRC (via VPN).
China reminds me of Azula from Avatar the Last Airbender. She’s ruthlessly efficient in the good times, but the moment things don’t go her way, she becomes more authoritarian, driving people away. Her growing need to be absolutely perfect and efficient ended up destroying what she herself built.
I disagree with that, Azula was a manipulator who was a underling of her father. China is none of that upsept a mamipulator which could be heavily debated, however Azula became more authoritarian because she gained more power. China has become the opposite and throughout history has opened uo more and more.
I had a good job at a Chinese university but I decided to not go back after COVID because it was obvious which way that society was going once they started blaming foreigners for what was clearly their fault
@@YourSocialistAutomaton Because Chinese people have massive amounts of money tied up in property and the property bubble is collapsing. It's called debt deflation
@@YourSocialistAutomatonI said good point earlier and while I still hold true that it’s not a 1 to 1 comparison (that wasn’t the point) the idea that China is opening up is ludicrous when all one can witness is a nation putting up a cosmopolitan facade while in actuality it’s littered with democratic backsliding and contempt for foreigners.
China is just cursed at this point They gotta just give it up, or change doing a full 180 I think this collapse will force them to change a prophet of a new religion does sound very interesting either that or they’ll pick up on Buddhism since it helps with suffering and because of its geographical proximity to Tibet and the majority of Buddhism in the world
@@sinoromanChinese civilisation managed to keep being Chinese but the romans didn’t have the best track record, no one claims to be Romans now. The descendants of the Chinese monetarily poor relative to the romans though.
I think in terms of population, every nation is going to have to address declining fertility. As the world population closes in on its estimated ~11 billion carrying capacity, fertility is going to HAVE to decline in order for us to stop overpopulation and catastrophe. I think is some sense we are already seeing this happen in countries.
What people think revolution in China will result in: "YAY LIBERALISM, YAY PROGRESSIVISM, YAY LGBTQIAAAA+++, YAY INTERSECTIONALISM" What revolution in China will ACTUALLY result in: National Military Junta.
Why would the Western managerial class be discontent with Western capitalism when they control the private companies more than the state? "Managerial" as a term literally comes from corporate management.
I’ve been watching Winston from Serpentza since 2012 or 2013. I haven’t seen every video of his over these past 12 years but a good number of them. I never saw any dishonesty as being an issue and he covered all sorts of good things about Chinese culture as well as issues.
I wouldn't accuse them of dishonesty so much as being overly focused on the negatives of China as well as being very childish. As a counter-balance to them I recommend Gweilo60 and Daniel Dumbrill (both of who live in China currently) I also currently live in China and I find Gweilo60 to be more correct.
Hello. My name is Sun. I am a Chinese. Though I do not fully agree with you regarding your prediction of China, you video is great. And I might have answers to some of your questions.
@@hebercluff1665 1. just between 1959-1961, under Mao's control, the death toll is between 15-60 million. During culture revolution, unnatural death toll is between 0.3-0.5 million per year. Culture revolution lasted 10 year, thus at least 3-5 million death number. Started from 1921 to 1976, total death toll under Mao would far exceeded 30 million. 2. China mainland population shall be less than 1.4 billion in 2023. The CCP plant parenthood has long standing practice of falsehood birth rate to maintain its power and profit. According to an unverified Japanese research, according to salt consumption, the Chinese mainland population shall not exceed 0.8 Billion. Disregard such research, China mainland's population age distribution is inaccurate. Right now, the biggest portion shall be round 55-65ish, the generation born right in the end of culture revolution. The total population number will take a sharp dive with in 30 years. In 2060, CCP would feel very luck if the total population number is beyond 0.8 billion.
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God damn it you have 500k subs get a proper mic you cheap b#stard
ዢ ዢንፒንግ 🐼
2:32 I cant wait to play as "T Pole", whoever that is. Hopefully we can play as T'Pol at some point
EDIT - War is inevitable, as you say. And not just against Taiwan. THey could over-run almost all the ASEAN nations before anyone could do a thing about it, and use their client state Iran to do the same in the Persian Gulf. They will also have Venezuela, Cube, South Africa and Nigeria run wild just to help give them time to consolidate the orient and prep to over0run Europe.
Interesting times indeed....
Where are my cool comments 😭 ?
Edit: @WhatifAltHist what did you do to them 🥺
As someone from Hong Kong that have moved to London in the UK last year... I am increasingly convinced that for all the various powers of the world, things have gotten to the point of it not even being about 'winning' the Second Cold War anymore. But instead, trying to not be the first one to collapse from self-inflicted social issues.
Yup I feel the exact same way
This is all monsterous projection from deeply insecure westerners who think china is at all in the same kind of mess they are in. I've not seen any chinese people who hate themselves, hate their own countrymen or want the world to end Nearly as much as what happens in the west.
We really have f’ed up this bad haven’t we?
We need to step up and lead. Now.
Well, I mean "not collapsing first" was how the US won the First Cold War. We had plenty of our own self inflicted social problems and ironically we're pretty damn socialist, have been since FDR's New Deal. It was less "we're capitalist and their socialists (communists)" it was "we're less hardline socialist as them" therefore we outlasted the USSR. The bits of capitalism and competition allowed in the US (anything that wasn't a threat to the Military Industrial Complex) were able to keep the bullshit socialism aspects we did have propped up. Now tho we've implemented a lot more socialism, every Industry is it's own Industrial Complex now and all part of our centrally planned economy. It's going to shit now, unsurprisingly. Unlike China tho, the US (and West as a whole) can bounce back if we begin to recognize that the "social welfare" crap we've tried implementing for decades is still the same poison China and Russia both ODed on. It's taking longer to get the lethal dose, but we'll get it unless we change course and go back to Free Markets and limited government intervention in the economy. Diluting the poison of socialism doesn't make it no longer a poison, just takes longer to kill you.
@@Lusa_Iceheart the west is already screwed demographically because of migration. Theres no bouncing back, your civilisations for the most part have been so 'enriched' that it will take some truely barbaric practices to reverse it.
“I dont think our media is that intelligent “ - understatement of the year 😂
Virgin revolution 💪
I think a perfect example of this, is all the things I read over the years about how great China's bullet trains are or how reliable their Wi-Fi is, but not telling us that they can't drink the water out of the sink. We have had potable water for over one hundred years in the US, this is a purposeful omission, cause every American reporter in the country of China would have had to have known this. News is supposed to inform us of what is really going on, the US and other Western Media failed in this charge at EPIC proportions.
Like the collapse of the Soviet Union we were told that the Russians were richer, smarter, more organized, less bigoted, more powerful, and more stable than us. Then all of the sudden they just collapsed. In my lifetime this was the most EPIC failure of the News Media and our Government (what the CIA didn't see this coming and didn't warn us?). It will now happen again in China, and the News Media will have the same deer in the headlights look as when the USSR collapsed.
@@maphezdlin so true 😄 Chinese eat stone because they are so poor 😭🇨🇳 19T GDP is fake by CCP 😭 Virgin revolution happened right now because 1 child policy 😭 China have 1 Billion man and 400 million women and 399 million lesbian 😭 China is collapse help pls 😢
@@maphezdlin there viral video Chinese eat stone ☠️🪨 no joke 😭 Chinese economy is doom 😢 Virgin revolution happened right now in Shenzhen 😭
the media is r0tten /c0rrupt
In China they have "the curse of 35", in America we have "the curse of less than 5 years of experience"
And everyone has the curse of the "education" system. It wastes 12-20 years of people's lives and wastes their youth, while producing weak, stupid useless people. This goes doubly so for STEM.
If kids were specialized through private courses and most importantly self-education, from the age of 12, in one engineering field, or one trade, or law or commerce, by the age of 16-20 they would be highly skilled and knowledgeable experts who would be able to work at a medium level position in their (sub)fields.
I know a few dozen people, many of which close friends and acquaintances, that by the age of 22-24 are earning 3-7x the average salary, by ditching school as much as possible and doing what I described above.
You'll find the latter in Europe too, honestly. I myself tried getting a job the usual way (as a highschool dropout) after tiring of failed math exams. Just one dead end after another. So by the time I finally asked the local bureaucracy for help, I was so far down that suicide seemed like a plan. It was quite humiliating for a classic liberal like myself, but the only alternative was remaining stuck without a job...forever. So much for rugged individualism. And the old baggage isn't done make life sour for younger generations either. May the ruling class have their names cursed for a hundred years.
@@honorarydarkness1300 "Rugged Individualism" is a romantic aspiration. I am sympathetic to it. But it's an aspiration, not a rule. That's what localization, parish, federalism and community is for. For example, community is still a thing with lower class suburban and rural Catholic Parishes via the 'Sister Parrish" program and such.
Big Government has quashed it to societies detriment. That's why we have Federal agencies spying on Catholic churches. Traditional American "rugged individualism" is an illusion as people had more cohesive families and parishes to help them out and set an example as opposed to a federal level program. btw I happen to be Catholic so I can only speak to American Catholicism, but I think other communities i.e. Amish, Muslim, Evangelicalism and Mormons suffer somilar scrutiny. To quash localism in order to enforce dependence. The ruling class are the hippie boomer marxists of the '70's. This isn't new.
In Logan's run, you became a runner at 30.
I think we have the curse of not having a financial education. Once you understand money, you can make it work for you and it comes rolling in. Instead, Americans saddle themselves with debt buying dumb status symbols.
I'm almost 60 and have been hearing that China is bound to fall my entire life.
Historically, Chinese accept mass casualties and calamities on a scale that makes Russians look like debutants.
I’m not sure why the West is so determined to think China will fall. It’s like they’re scared of them. In China, my Grandfather nor anybody gives two shits about the West. We live, work, and die. We fought against the foreign Invaders of Japan with glory, many died but we are still here. They say we are filled with Anti-Western Propaganda, when this is the bullshit that many Westerners consume.
Yes. I'm "only" almost 40 but I have also heard about the impending Chinese collapse for most of my life. I do think the collapse warnings have gotten somewhat more frequent recently but I can't tell whether that's actually because collapse is more likely or just because people are more interested in dramatic news about China right now and that's what gets clicks. I guess we'll see, if China doesn't collapse in the next decade or so, this video can join the big pile of wrong predictions on this.
The western wet dream of china magically falling because their reign is about to end lol
Funny I've heard since my youth that we'd better learn mandarin because China would own the United States 😂 at this juncture I do not believe that to be true because their plans in alliance with bad actors within the government have been greatly thwarted by the good people of the USA
Well that's the big difference between western and occidental societies and Chinese, we have values and we grow up believing that our life and others life is important, our system is based on people life, while chinese values are only for maintain the system running, who cares if half people disappear while system don't fall. You are saying clearly why china never can go far of their frontiers, people outside Chinese society value life more than anything, even more than any government. You are just a number while we are living people, occidental values will never match with chinese, we don't even need do a war with china, you already kill yourself between chinese and don't care at all, is just matter of time to you repeat your history again, like on the video says. That's the point of the video, older will fall with the next crisis, no matter if is next decade or next century, your civilization are on bucle repeting again and again, and next version of chinese society i dont know how will be but im sure will be with young people only. I'm not American, but I'm my country says "crisis come slowly but when it arrives nothing can't stop it" I'm surprised you are old and don't know that most crisis don't start from one day to another, are mostly from things that happens 20 or 50 years ago, when something broke and you just notice the error now with decades of delay
Some where in Beijing, there is another althist guy, speaking in mandarin saying nearly all the same things about America.
I find that beautiful.
Both are basically correct, as Whatifalthist pointed out!
That does not make one more true than the other. An accused man calling the judge a murderer does not mean he is equally under suspicion.
@@michaelnurse9089 ok anglo moron
@@michaelnurse9089
Great clear-thinking analogy even the CCP might understand 👍
The Chinese guy realizes who actually controls America, so he doesn't talk about America so much as Israel.
"Society" is essentially the proxy word for "trusting individuals cooperating".
If trust is lost, individuals stop cooperating, and society ceases to exist by definition.
And trust is very hard to build. It takes time, sacrifice, and good counting skills.
Incidentally, this is how you escape the poverty of low-trust communities - You practice counting, eventually notice who's stealing from you, and save yourself the loss, thus getting richer. You notice who's doing fair business, and build rapport over time. When honest people accumulate wealth together... we call that civilization.
They have always been about exploitation,as with any gentleman's culture.
China is a strange duck from a Western perspective. China is high trust in family members and in their collective Chinese identity. On the same token, most chinese citizens don't trust their government and have a "just keep your head down" mentality.
Remember, any Chinese citizen with a secondary education is part of the upper class, and only they have a vested interest in upholding the Chinese system as it is today. All figures and statistics for Chinese institutions are doctored to make the nation look better.
That definition/explanation makes it clear why some people maintain that civilization is inherently racist. (All other things being equal, trust is always higher in-group than it is between groups, and all groups are ALSO not equal in trustworthiness or other qualities relevant to civilization. Thus, any actually existing civilization will privilege an ingroup somewhat and exclude some outgroups.)
No, trust isn't racist. Nature has countless examples of different SPECIES cooperating symbiotically. @@eliharman
then cities doesn't build any society
I don’t think the PLA would side with any rebellion simply because they are not loyal to the State. The PLA is a branch of the Communist Party, and is completely loyal to the Party. They are different from nearly every other army on Earth because of this. Political loyalty in the PLA is absolute.
Yeh it’s like if the democrats and republicans had their own army’s
You can think of the PLA-CCP relationship in the same way you can think of how the Waffen SS was related to the Nazi Party. They do not exist to protect the country or its people. It exists purely to enforce the rule of the party itself and ensure it remains in power. Whether it's for fighting against an invader or being the invader, it's not done for the nation or its citizens, but to make sure the party grows in strength or is defended.
Many mainland Chinese do not know the difference between the State and the Nation, since the communists have indoctrinated them to believe they are one and the same. But eventually the filth of the CCP will fade away, as all governments eventually do, but the people and country will still remain.
Far too many PLA generals, admirals, etc... getting purged by Xi for that to be true.
History is littered with examples of armed forces that swore loyalty to the political body in charge, only to be the first to plant the proverbial knife when things reached boiling point. The PLA will remain loyal only as long as there are seen to be benefits in doing so. If enough of the soldiers come to the conclusion that the regime is outright harming them, whatever oaths they swore on recruitment won't matter.
the commie chinese and russians are only a little bit less evil than no no germans
When I was in China I met young guys who were making around 3000 yuan a month. The rent in my apartment was 2000 yuan a month and it was a studio. I don't blame Chinese men for giving up.
Because that’s different in the west
I'm Taiwanese and I want to comment on the "eat bitterness" part.
If I heard "eat bitterness" from a person with seniority, it normally wouldn't mean the life is gonna go bad, but more of expect and endure the struggles through life as a step of person growth. It's just a really common phrase the elder would tell to the young.
@Johnnyynf American here, a concern I have had for a while is that Chinese Culture and Language in Taiwan is way more healthy and alive than in China proper. Communists have a terrible habit of destroying language and so I think the eat bitterness may be self referential. Not saying your are incorrect but that you may be more correct than what the CCP really means.
@@kyledrake9208 I've heard the same. Mainland Chinese that I met who'd been to Taiwan were very impressed with the people there. And having worked with Ukrainians and seen how utterly rude and obnoxious they often are, I've come to the same conclusion about communism: it degrades everything
@@kyledrake9208 Just to interject, the phrase is very common as johnnyy said, kinda like if american parents tell their child to work hard. should not be possible to interpret differently imo
Yep, 吃苦literally translates to eating bitterness, but it describes the ability to endure hardship.
吃苦
The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite; Long United, Must Divide
Thus it has ever been
Babylon falls and Babylon rises
@@Mrairsoft683thus it will ever be
@@davidmgilbreathyes it will
China will easily outlast America
I'm a young engineering graduate straight of university, the best university in Canada. What I don't understand is why I wasn't hired by some engineering firms, multinational corporations during the GFC. I sacrificed everything in life, social skills, health, to be the number one student, and the reward should be a cozy cubicle job. Instead I went to China to teach English. Now close to 40 I'm still a young graduate, I should be driving society, creating ideas, putting my intelligence to use.
My father was the same engineering graduate who worked for Hewlett-Packer in the late 1970's when the economy crashed he was angry about the situation but hated the culture within the company and began his own business in which I believe he was happiest and successful 😂 nothing new under the sun just cycles of dips and rises
One more thing i completely spaced on, is that their are both Qing and Ming Dyansty members still alive, and a few rebel groups also support them. A return to Imperial China would seem likely since as discontent with the communists has risen, ive noticed way more pro Imperial sentiment, even amongst Taiwanese
Yup. And most people would support the Ming due to Han nationalism
This makes way more sense than "Chinese democracy".
There is more sentiment of pro Democracy than pro Imperial. You can hardly find a modern country revert to a Imperial country now.
I honestly think this is part of why the US government never bothered paying off any debt to them.
What are they going to do, release another virus?
Or because is unpayable
Or perhaps it’s both simultaneously in a dangerous shell game.
I don't remember the US not paying. They hold US treasuries! If the US wanked it's number one holder of treasuries no other country would buy them ever again. Without those treasury sales our debt spending would vaporize. Why is everyone so dense here?!
@@STEP107 do you know they just raised the debt cealing? or are you retarted imagine thinking U.S dollar has any real value they can just print out more and more like in 2020
1:03 Rudyard, while my country (Nigeria) may trade a lot with China, we are not a strong Chinese ally. They rejected us for BRICS membership (mainly due to our stronger western ties) and when the USA and other G20 members offered us a more solid membership, we gladly took it. We are actually more aligned with the west than many people realize. We have stronger diplomatic, military and economic ties with the west. Heck! We also have a long-standing relationship with India. China is an major economic partner for us but not a strong geopolitical one.
The Christian south is more align with the West but not the Muslim North. Also Nigeria is going to become a muslim majority country with 491M people by 2075.
Well that’s great to hear. Nigeria is going to be a very important player in the future. Likely to one of the worlds superpowers in the future.
@@drewkaton6785 Yeah Nigeria and DR Congo have great potential in Africa. Ethiopia, Egypt and Tanzania are cool too.
Glad to have you. Stay safe.
@@feliz2892yeah, you would think so but in terms of actual policy and outlook, both the north and south are more allied with our allies here. Regardless of party changes, the geopolitics of Nigeria tends to be fairly uniform. Thus, we still maintain ties with the west. This is mainly due to closer proximity to Europe and our socioeconomic, political and cultural history with the British and others, which makes us more aligned with them. Plus, for security in the unstable north and maritime south, we tend to prefer working with the Americans and Europeans for weapons and training and security detail.
Even during military rule, our ties to the west were maintained. Former president buhari was the only one who tried to change this by trying to make us more of a Chinese ally mostly so that he could leverage more cheap Chinese loans for his failed projects and that didn't go well and just indebted us.
Perhaps a perspective to consider. With the one child policy, that one child is very very valuable to two families. How does a war with large casualties (some potentially on the Chinese mainland) impact the willingness of the population to support a war for Taiwan?
At the end of Eastern Han Dynasty around the beginning of the 3rd century around 200 BC, the destruction and collapse of the nation caused the death of about 4/5 of the population. The population went from the peak of about 50 million down to about 10 million in a span of 100 years. The second time such thing happened was around the collapse of the Tang Dynasty around the 10th century. Again, the massive war and the resulting famine and disease reduced about 4/5 or 80% of the population.
@gsmiro So 20% of 800 million (Japanese estimate) would leave 160 million. Enough to run a country still, but a stupendous, horrific catastrophe.
remember:
no one really replaced Rome after the western collapse, Byzantium is a remannt not a replacement
there was also no "replacement" after the Abbasid or Mongol collapse, it was just a free for all
A real renaissance royal rumble
the byzantines were called 'romans' by foreigners, called themselves 'romans' and formed an unbroken line from the fall of the republic to the fourth crusade. in truth, the 'byzantine' empire was the Roman Empire of the medieval period. they proceeded to be wholly replaced by the Ottomans so the above statement is only really true for the western half of the empire.
that being said the western empire certainly did have replacements in the form of germanic tribes who were already integrated into western roman society as their military and proceeded to maintain the status quo from the imperial days far beyond what most people believe. it's just that no one tribe filled the entire power vacuum left by the imperial court in milan (the city of rome itself was nearly abandoned for almost a century by the time romulus augustulus was deposed)
Rome collapsed because it got invaded by a mass migration from the east. The Mongols collapsed because they were an empire of military conquest which could only survive based off its ability to suppress rebellion.
@@mrwtfwhypretty sure "Byzantium" will make a return as a international global Civ, with the amount of satanism going around RN 🤔
Rome went from the two pillars of iron, to the ten toes of iron and clay. Part strong and part weak.
It was never really conquered. It just sorta fell apart.
People always incorrectly say that the Chinese are servile, but the reality is that they are only obedient citizens until the ruling dynasty has lost the Mandate of Heaven, at which point they become the most rebellious and unruly people in history.
Which is why the CCP completely tossed that. There needs to be a bug in the Chinese public's ear about the Mandate of Heaven.
thats a load of ahistorical fop. Actually read some chinese history. Chinese dynasties only collapse for all the reasons any state collapses, an inability to maintain power, foreign conquest or internal coups. There is no historical precedent of an actual chinese dynasty just toppling to spontaneous peasant uprising because leaders were 'immoral'
In suprised the west hasn’t created some sort of structure/future country to take over China (which can be used as a western puppet) since there is a huge diaspora of Chinese in western countries, like there’s already the separatist movements for tibet and East Turkmenistan but why isn’t there one for a new China
The west can easily reveal the atrocities and have the Chinese people here turn on their gov back home
@@WilliamShinal It's Mother Nature's job to remind the public.
The Mandate of Heaven is just a more poetic version of the Social contract concept of Hegel.
So even if CCP tossed it out it's still there as its not specifically for the Chinese people. It's applicable to every one
The micro apartments aren't their homes, they're work dorms unless you're in Tier 1 cities. After 10 years when workers Bodies are destroyed they go back to their village, where their family has a home and money saved up to buy a new house. The problem is good public schools lead to good jobs which are in expensive tier 1 cities, otherwise its actually affordable to buy a house in a tier 3 cities.
The only concerns I have about your prediction of an invasion of Taiwan are:
1) How will the populace react when their sons, (you know, the ones that are supposed to care for them in their old age), start coming back in body bags?
2) The CCP has been watching very closely how the world reacted to Russia invading Ukraine. From a strategic point of view Russia had a much easier position to attack Ukraine from. An aerial and amphibious assault against a prepared enemy is a meat grinder. Ask any Dieppe veteran.
3) The CCP likes to THREATEN the invasion, but like most bullies don't really want to actually fight. Once they invade they can't just talk the talk, and that is something that they have gotten a lot of mileage from. It's a lot tougher walk the walk.
4) How will the CCP maintain control when the people they rely on when things get real are on their way to Taiwan?
I think the CCP has to focus on keeping an already unhappy, unemployed population under control. They have already reinstated Mao era distrust of foreigners and snitching on one another.
I lived there from 2017-2020 and enjoyed my time there. I worry about my friends and former students that still live there, but its a powder keg. I wouldn't return.
It really feels like the whole world is about to burst into flames.
Because most nations have an enemy occupation force pretending to be a legitimate government. They want to burn down our world to ensure they can live as godkings forever.
Yeah. Not a single modern state seems capable of surviving the 21st century.
@@duncanharrell5009 Most of the big ones are run by stupid, self-serving, incompetent apparatchiks whose total knowledge of statecraft is how to loot it. And reformers are opposed because they're outsiders who want to change the system.
Party's over. But the longer they drag out and pretend (like financing all their wants and dreams with debt they expect their grandchildren to pay...), the worse the final result will be.
Uruguay and Belarus will because they are the only white countries that dont got Globohomo'd
Got a song for that, Dead Can Dance Children of the Sun.
If you think things are going to go to shit in America, wait till you look over in Asia
The West and Far East is going to decline
Its only catastrophically bad here lol! Much worse in Chjina, but the CCP of course don't tell you this, and the cathederal in America loves everything the CCP represents - its what they want here. Fortunately I don't think either will win in the end.
The United States is the undisputed cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper
I actually think for all its intent and purposes, the US will come out just okay. Traumatized yes but still marching along. But Asia? I actually think that region is about to tear itself apart. @@content_enjoyer4458
It feels like two people with different types of cancer, where one person has had the cancer that has already gone through their entire body while the other person had their cancer found early.
One's going to die, maybe within weeks. There is no hope for them.
The other might survive with the right treatment. That treatment will make them sick and miserable and they may wish they were dead. A mistake such as doing a biopsy wrong or not removing a tumor properly could spread the cancer and doom them. Even if they fight as hard as they could their body might still fail. But there's still a chance. There's still hope, if one does not give up.
This is a fever dream and I can’t stop watching.
"It's so quiet."
"It's the deep breath before the plunge!"
Now that was depressing... never ever in my life would I have thought to see such times. Both here and over there...
No wonder the chinese youth is so much into anime and anime aesthetics. No joke; when you are not religious, you work too much, no woman wants you, your family is no good the only way to cope is idolizing stories and entertaiment and anime is perfect for that.
thats like most youth in the developed world.
@@hughmungus2760 Not just the youth but what else do we have when nearly everything has gone woke.
What about the women? They exist too.
Sounds like what’s happening here, too. It seems like this Cold War is more about what side self destructs faster
@@hornetguy9063as bad as it is this makes me so interested In how this plays out, I’m such a nerd for saying that but damn
We’re really witnessing history play out that will be talked for centuries
“The second Cold War, which side commits suicide quicker”
as much as I hate how much the US is favoring and protecting elites that want a China like N.w.o I’m gonna say it’s gotta be the Us
As much as l like that Russia is banning as many zenoestrogen chemicals (estrogen mimicking chemicals found in majority of modern food) I think America would win this, while Europe is gonna be pretty shitty but still survive maybe similar to a post Soviet Eastern Europe type state
I think a country like Mexico will be very successful after the war tbh because of its non involvement
revolutions are rare. They require
multiple factors to succeed:
1) a weak ruler who is inflexible and not creative at solving the current political problems
2)a divided ruling class
3)mass public discontent
4)cross-class alliance(the dissatisfied faction of the ruling class aiding the discontented public)
5)the authorities unwillingness to use force to quell the revolution.
Well, let's see how many there are in this case:
"1) a weak ruler who is inflexible and not creative at solving the current political problems "
To be fair, Xi Jinping is a fairly strong but inflexible leader. While it's true that he's educating young children with his ideas, it remains to be seen how willing the rest of China's governement class is to follow him to death. China has multiple local governements that rule millions of people. It'd just take a couple to break the country apart and to kick-start another warlord period.
"2)a divided ruling class"
They do. They fucking do. There's no trust among members of the central governement, and there are divides between the central and the local governements.
"3)mass public discontent"
30 millions of young chinese won't have a wife, and that's perfect cannon fodder for a revolution. WW1 had 11 millions of deaths, WW2 50 millions, and 30 millions of angry young men is more than enough manpower to destroy a country. France has 60 millions of people, imagine half of France armed and revolting: it'd take a gigantic effort to quell them down. To this, add how many young people stopped caring about future or ideology because they consider their life doomed. The yt channel "China Uncensored" shows quite well how millions of people just gave up or plain don't support the central governement.
"4)cross-class alliance(the dissatisfied faction of the ruling class aiding the discontented public)"
Maybe the Shanghai's clique could fit this role, even though in China there's the concept of Mandate of Heaven: when the current ruling class sucks, common people can definetly become the next ruling class as long as they're virtuous and capable. New leaders would arise and compete to get the control of the new central governement, and these leaders of tomorrow could be young poor folks today.
"5)the authorities unwillingness to use force to quell the revolution."
It's not only a matter of willingness, but also a matter of army's loyalty to the central governement and army's sympaties to the revolutioners, which are mutually exclusive. Realistically, a sizeable portion (mainly the old guard) will support the CCP, while another sizeable portion (the young guard) will support the revolutioners. This will tear the country apart. To this, add the possibility of local governement revolting and raising local armies. The PLA will become fractured, and look at the Russian Empire: the white army, with centuries of experience and foreign support, still lost to the red army because the communists had people's support. The young guard defeating the ol guard is not unrealistic.
In conclusion, China has all the cards to have a revolution soon. It's a ticking-bomb, and no one outside will know when it will explode until it will actually explode
Thank you.
That fact we live in the "Post-Revolutionary Era" really deludes people.
We had a handful of notable revolutions -- connected to the Industrial Revolution -- and now people think the option is always on the table, when it simply isnt.
"Revolution" is such a cope for most people.
They mentally masturbate to the fantasy that "one day the working man will wake up, and have enough." But revolutions are almost exclusively started by the ruling class, and the working class just jumps on board.
It drives me insane.
You can't even have a discussion about actually trying to fix the things that could be fixed because everyone is huffing the copium of revolution.
@@WilliamMcAdams the problem is arrogant cynical assholes like you miss the bigger picture because you are too afraid to pick up a gun yourself.
@@WilliamMcAdamsmore likely, things just fall apart suddenly.
There were only a few "people" revolutions, French, Russian, and the Israeli's under Roman rule. Those are the ones I can think on the top of my head. @@WilliamMcAdams
This is a great video, very well done
Very insightful point at the beginning about the Western Managerial Class having a long running romance for authoritarianism. I was born in 1982, as a kid living in California and Hawaii, I was constantly being told that I needed to learn Japanese if I wanted to be employable as an adult, because it was obvious that the Japanese were going to overtake the USA. Fast forward to when I was in college in the early 2000's and everyone was talking about learning Chinese. Westerners also have a habit of over estimating the strengths of the Asian social and economic model.
China already overtook USA in many aspects.
My Dad worked for a Chinese company that has a branch here in the states to be close to the auto companies. They laid off everyone last week. My Dad showed up to work and his boss, the local VP, was already let go. The word around the office is that things in China are much worse than we know.
Things are that China has been given sanctions on the west, and so they are moving out of "the west" because "the west" don't want them. That's it.
I was sent a message by a student I used to teach. It said "I work in a public fund nowadays and as you know the capital market is getting worse so it's a very tough time for us. I don't even know if there is a future. Seems like our economy is collapsing"
You have to remember a few key points about the Chinese economy:
Most forms of wealth-gathering are not allowed, forcing a large amount of household wealth into the stock market and the real-estate market;
China's real-estate market makes up as much as 1/3rd the entire Chinese GDP, largely fueled by country-wide price speculation that the housing prices will always rise making large portions of the population view real estate as an investment rather than a very expensive purchase;
Chinese bankruptcy laws don't really have a way for the average citizen to escape overwhelming debts, meaning that this housing crisis can't really be passed onto the banks without mass refusal/inability of the public to pay off their debts;
China's population is shrinking as a direct result of the One-Child Policy affecting Chinese society for decades, and it will continue getting worse because the crashing economy will incentivize everyone to avoid starting/expanding a family at this time;
and of course, China's Wolf Warrior diplomacy has strained all foreign diplomatic relationships to their breaking points just as China's economy spent 3 years screeching to a halt under the disastrous Zero COVID lockdowns.
Even if the predicted revolution doesn't happen, China's role in the global economy will be massively reduced for decades to come...
@@nadrewod999 Thanks for the additional background.
@@nadrewod999I don't know how they're going to survive all of that. If I was a greedy, high ranking Chinese politician, I'd be looking for a way to flee the country immediately.
To be honest, as a Chinese who grow up in China, I really don’t think the civil war will happen that soon, at least in the next 10 years. The pla army still loyal to the party and that fact never changed even through the great famine and culture revolution. But definitely the party might highly likely collapse within 10 years. And Xi might be if not the last, but second last chairman in CCP history
The gains and cultural revolution happened in the strong, young, fanatical phase of communism.
No one is willing to die for the cause right now.
@@shorewallWithin living memory people fought tooth and nail to unify the nation. You think the lie flat youth is gonna topple the government?
I don't see a lot of internal division ideologically that would see civil war happen, either. I can see the PLA abolishing the CCP in order to placate the public if living conditions get worse than they already are, though. Most likely then it will be despotic similar to Thailand's political system or 1960s South Korea.
@@shorewall That is true for a certain degree. I would say many Chinese young people still have some romantic fantasy about war (especially towards to Taiwan). But when actually war happens, these will be the first to want to quit. At the moment, these crazy nationalists might hijack government’s decision, which further increase the risk of invasion of Taiwan
@@shorewall all the same no one will die in a revolution to overthrow the party.
The party might collapse through burocratic means where it basically just stops pretending to be communist anymore. But thats not going to result in the kind of violence this video is predicting.
It is such a tragedy to learn that so many people in China and other countries died over failed governing and atrocities. What's more saddening is that history is seemingly about to repeat itself, again.
When I grow older and see more the dark sides of people, the more I realise the biggest enemy of us all are always ourselves, our tendency of corruption, jealousy and exploitation. That's why we need a set of civilized values, society and governing systems to check our worse impulses.
I hope that if the tragedies in the next few decades for humanity are unavoidable, at least what comes out of it will be a better world for the future generations to come.
Happy New Year guys!
1. Dating is still alive and well in China and better than you think, it's getting married and having kids that's difficult.
2. Most people own property in China with many owning multiple properties, it's not like everyone lives in tiny one room shacks.
3. The fertility, much like South Korea's is doomed. If you're an average guy with an average income/net worth it'll be difficult to start a family especially if you're marrying only for love/attraction.
4. You are right. Most young Chinese males have no reason to support the CCP, most won't be able to get wealthy even with hard work, start a family, or really have any rights at the end of it. They can only be beat down to not rebel, but that's not sustainable for building a long-term society when most just give up on life and lay flat.
dont chinese people only "lease" property from the government for like 70 years or something?
I guess a future where china just chugs along and never takes over the world but and people are also too apathetic to revolt, doesn't make for a good video. Clickbaiters gonna clickbait.
You're thinking of land not houses @@captainalex157
The properties ‘owned’ are investments and often (for younger families) not even built yet and in the city. The shack myth is rather exaggerated, yeah but with a grain of truth. The mainland has become quite stratified
@@captainalex157 Pretty much, but they don't pay property tax which does add up over 70 years.
The slide about nitpicking at 18:15 actually got me rolling, it's true as hell but I never really thought about it that way.
Very interesting young man. Well done.
Sad thing is that China is one generation from being a lot chiller. I’m half Chinese and my cousin lives in China and is Chinese. His generation likes transformers, western music, and want everything that the rest of the youth of the world wants. Once the generation that went through the intense trauma ages out everything will change. If we can maintain the tenuous status quo for 10 more years everything will be different… Detant is the name of the game
This might matter if China was a democracy. It isn't.
Are you sure about that? The younger generation is being suppressed, not replacing the previous one. Also China looks more like an apparatus of the deep state than its own agent right now, it operates to help entrench power in the hands of leaders of other countries.
Unfortunately it seems like the old guard in a lot of nations can’t quite let go of the Cold War. Here’s hoping for a better future, whatever happens
I sure hope so. But I'm being real. It's looking grim.
10 years is generous. The people running the country are old as fuck.
"Fascism is the stage reached after communism has proved an illusion."
- F.A. Hayek
Hegelian dialect. What comes after fascism? Stakeholder capitalism? What comes after that fails? We will never achieve a utopia on earth, no system will bring us that.
Fascism is capitalism in decay
- Lenin
@@Boz196 /whoosh
@@Boz196Accepting that truth would be awesome really. Politics would be much more productive in creating a system that is just "good enough" (or if you are a little more ambitious "as good as reasonably possible") while we let religion deal with our existential angst.
@@Boz196 our utopias fail because human beings are shitheads. in every system the most ruthless people get to the top because they're the ones willing to do anything and step over anybody to get there. any ideology is doomed to fail if it requires, or assumes, that we are capable or willing to rapidly change our human nature. and communism is definitely guilty of this. which is probably a large part of why the body count is so high in communist countries.
our isms will never get us to a utopia, not as long as we're kept fighting with each other and pushing others down to raise ourselves up. even a perfect system would be ruined by very imperfect people, and communism is a very imperfect system.
Superb assessment, thank you.
I've been waiting for this one!!!
I can only pray for one of my overseas friends in Hong Kong, may he be spared from the fore-coming chaos
The South stands a good chance of going it's own way, the worst will happen in the North and the Interior. I'm not talking sucession, just reverting to how the South usually behaves when central power collpses ( more than twenty times, by now ! )
This is fearmongering. China won’t collapse like this lmao
sleep well everyone
I live in UK and we are being replace by the utopias agender
we are all going through this, hold on to a higher sense of stander and just do the best you can.
You mean the religion of eternal peace.
@@dan_merDon’t forget tolerance, acceptance, and accountability
The Celts were replaced by the Anglo Saxons and now the Anglo Saxons are being replaced by the Muslims and the Indians.
YT keeps removing my comments so I will simply say that the people that sit on a carpet 5 times a day are replacing us in the UK. It happened to the Celts and now it's happening to us.
Or point your finger somewhere else like whatifalthist does...
All these prognosticators are neglecting the certainty that China will develop robot soldiers and workers.
Excellent video.
Hey this ain’t the CIA video that won the poll! But so excited for this video. - Happy viewer
He said he had two finished before he did the poll so it may be next or at the very least the one after that.
I’m writing that video this week. This video was already completed. You’re getting two other videos I’ve already completed before too, before the cia video
@@WhatifAltHistPlease god dont do the incel revolution video. It doesnt even work in priciple. Anyone charasmatic enough to lead it would just get laid normally
@@WhatifAltHistI wouldn’t even explain yourself because there’s no need to when your content is this good.
@@WhatifAltHist the video is done , wahoo !🎉🎉🎉
I read an interesting stat from the U.S border patrol earlier today; they have seen a massive uptick in Chinese citizens illegally crossing the U.S border with Mexico over the last year. They estimate over 24,000 Chinese nationals crossed in 2023.
After watching this video I can see why.
The world realized almost 60 years ago that it can easily deal with its disodents by just letting them flee to the US. Its one of the reason Cuba has managed to survive. Its easier to just encourage your domestic enemies to leave to the New World than "Deal with them" at home.
It's notable that ALSO in the last few years (since the 2020 lockdowns), the Chinese government has started making it nearly impossible for Chinese citizens to receive the paperwork they'd need to travel to the United States. I don't have a source, but I bet if you looked it up the spike in illegal immigration from China has a matching dip in the amount of legal immigration from China. It may even be down overall, since it's become much harder and more dangerous in general.
The legal channel has almost entirely broken down, I think that's probably related information.
@@MustacheMerlinInteresting angle. Have not heard that mentioned by any independent analysts.
I question OP's @themightydropbear credibility. A cursory glance of the US ICE annual report released in December 2023 doesn't show significant numbers of Chinese immigrants increasing in frequency over the past 4 years. Only several hundred each year, vastly inferior numbers compared with traffic of other nations.
www.ice.gov/news/releases/ice-releases-fiscal-year-2023-annual-report
Now I will politely ask, "Source?"
Quick question: have you actually been to China?
There's a lot of videos with people going "blah blah China has this and that problem," and they've never even been there. I can't take any of that seriously.
Based on the duration of numerous dynasties since the Qin (which was the first large-scale Chinese empire), the probability of a Chinese revolution is about 1 out of 3 chance by 2060. Not a certainty but bettable odds.
This video will probably age as well as the video about the coming collapse of Russia.
Gordon Chang is no doubt shedding a proud tear as we speak. The student has at last outdone the master!
And about as well as the other 500 "coming Chinese collapse" videos on TH-cam
tried old rightwing tropes. He even cites that Liar Serpenza. You know he's talking out of his ass.
Agreed. Both countries will collapse
@@hughmungus2760What's wrong with Serpentza?
Someone: sneezes
Althist: immediately starts explaining how it will lead to societal collapse and civil war.
It's important to know who sneezed
Hes either schizomaxxing or rationalismmaxxing no inbetween
Love this video
I should've watched this when it came out. This Video is a Masterpiece. Whatifalthist has outdone himself again. Seriously, This Video should warrant him becoming more Recognized in Government, Economics and so on. Dude should be giving talks in official Forums of "Enlightened" People tbh. I think the statement here in the video that spoke to me the most is him calling out how Westerners LOVE to hate their own country when its not even that bad, the same can be said for my country despite not being a western one, though westernized.
0:40 We should also not tilt too far away from pessimism about the US to imagine that China will just explode by itself. As a South Afrian, its essential to understand that societies can fall apart for decades without any big "bang"
You need more immigrants from token little countries for fertility rate or you will fall apart.
I am from china and I have many families back in china who loves the current chinese nation and its status quo, and trust in its capacity of being a peaceful and safe society, and there is no way of telling them otherwise, it is quite sad.
It would be a tough pill for anyone to swallow
Maybe. Looking at china from a western lense thats heavily distorted with propoganda doesn't give you an accurate measure of things on the ground in china.
You know Douyin isn't banned in the west right? You can just look at people in china doing their thing.
Little pinks for now but when they go hungry while the party hogs fatten themselves at the expense of the people they'll turn all the same as many have waking up to reality.
because they are correct, actually you can basically make a video like this for every country in the world, so the only place suitable for us to live with a bright future is outer space :D But what if we can also make a negative video about the outer space civilization :D
Well yeah because the CCP is very efficient at most actually brainwashing thier own citizens into believing that just like they pretend the Tiannamen Square Massacre never happened
Hello, what other platforms are you on?
Hooray! Another terrifying video!
OMG a video today instead of poll? He's back, baby!!! We are in for a treat. Grabbing my tub of popcorn.
Greetings from Switzerland
You my friend are in the safest countries in the world nothing will ever happen to you, good shit
Yeah literally the luckiest people on earth. Has been peaceful for hundreds of years. No wars. No revolutions. Is rich as fuck. Is insanely beautiful. Schweiz is literally a paradise@awesomestevie27
What concerns me is the massive amounts of debt that China and other countries like the United States have. I know there are some thinkers that say it's not a bad thing, but I can't help but feel it will just lead to a massive devaluation of monetary systems worldwide and lead to a worldwide depression...Unless there is a massive debt forgivness between nations.
Very good analysis
The Warlord Era part 2 Electric Boogaloo seems fast approaching.
China has imploded into warlord periods more than once, lol. Across the sum of Chinese history, more of it has been spent in inter-dynastic warlord and fractured state periods than years spent in a unified dynasty. The collapse of the CCP dynasty into a long period (possibly centuries) of several disjointed successor states fighting with each other would be the expected continuation of the roughly 4 millennia long cycle China has played thro. The outlier really is how SHORT the last inter-dynasty period was (the last Civil War was functionally a warlord period) and that lasted like over two decades. Quite probably that the next Warlord period will be extremely bloody and violent at first but then quickly simmer down into distinct borders of each warlord/faction.
Not at all frankly
more like The Warlord Era season 5 episode 12
"China is whole again"
"then it broke again!"
- Bill Wurtz
I remember at the height of the Evergrande crisis I was working as a private equity real estate funds investor. I did some research with an MD who was really concerned about it and one of the stats that shocked all of us was that 70% of Chinese household income is tied up in real estate. A few years on, and there’s no indication that that number has dropped. For reference, right before Lehman crashed and started 2008, US household income was only about 25% in real estate.
What if you were wrong?
Evergrande has like 300 billion with a b liabilities and their Hong Kong branch was just court ordered to be liquidated. The CCP has been keeping that giant corpse alive since they know what happens if that thing implodes, and they can't prop it up forever.
@@Rusu421 I mean that could have been a possibility, especially because data on China is so unreliable. My intuition is that China actually sandbags a lot of their concerning data just like they did with COVID and their population numbers, so if anything the typical Chinese household’s financial situation might be even more precarious than we thought.
This means in US people have more debt than in China. Only that...
A Chinese student I used to teach messaged me last month saying that he worked in a public fund and he "didn't know if there was a future because our economy is collapsing"
I'm glad that you got ad in your video, I like to see that you can earn some moneys for your work
That's weird, I know we're talking about averages
But my Mom was 28 at marriage, my Dad's 5 years older, and they had 3 children by 34 and 39.
So genetically successful.
My Mom didn't work a job or business after marriage.
Very traditional.
I'm saying that it's possible to keep breeding after 28. But I know that averages are different and the average when my parents were getting married and having kids (1980-1985) was much younger.
Please make a video on the future of military technologues that will emerge later in this 21st century.
Love that you addressed this. I have been telling my wife for at least 2 years that China has serious problems and I am worried for it's people. There will likely be something between large scale loss of life to biblical level destruction in the coming years to next generation
brah... talking to women about politics and macronomis is a waste of time... women just simply dont give a shit.
women, just like chinese shamed based culture are entirely uninterested in truth and only interested in what makes them look good.
for her to spout the truth you are trying to teach her will make her look bad in front of other women and chinese, so she simply just don't give a fuck
As someone from HK, it's fkin insane how unhinged and hilarious this video is. People in the west have no idea how powerful/united China actually is as a country and as a people, compared to many other developed countries. You don't get to be the world's factory without advanced manufacturing capabilities and world class infrastructure. People these years love to overestimate the demise of China. And time will prove them wrong again and again.
@@hgos7211 looks like we found a 50 cent army shill. Capital markets are fleeing China right now, demographics are collapsing, the communist party has serious internal tension. As, for the culture and society of China, it is the land of short cuts and facades. The culture of China was destroyed in the cultural revolution and the people are not united in any way. Limited culture, lack of religion, and they are just cogs in the CCP machine. Brain washing/ indoctrinating works but only to a point. The CCP will lose control of the situation. Likely at great human costs as historically happens in power struggles, especially in China.
I couldn't care less about its people. They are without a doubt the most selfish neurotic people I've met in 60 countries visited. Utterly unreliable and given to acts of extreme spite if you make them lose "face" - I will simply be trying to keep myself safe from anything the CPC might try to stir up in the West
@@hgos7211 where in hk are you|?
What makes China so powerful are the US & EU investors. Who began their mad rush to China 40 years ago and are still at it today. Today all those US & EU investors enjoy pretty comfortable incomes through their investments in China. They are the ones who can and will stop anyone (Including any military)from hurting the Golden Goose - China. Of all the variables you've listed, money is the most important and most powerful. Show Me The Money!
Imagine being a Normie man in a place like India or China.
Greetings from India, I really like the quality you consistently bring to the table.
bhai what do you think about our political scenario rn
@@random_shit_online6104 i am an indian myself too me it depends on bjp if they alienate minorities too much we can see social tensions if they take up a moderate approach we are good but the problems of diversity and all will always existt tooo mee i am not a supporter of any of it but i dont see a bright future cuz of diversity of thought and also we dont have a proper national identity
@@kanwarchahalThe future of India is an ethnostate with a monolithic culture and a dominant Hindu faith based replacement of everything secular. The deterrents and renegades will either have to conform or leave. And the day we replace this vaccous post colonial bureaucratic machinery with a monarch, from that day onward our spiritual destiny shall start to be fulfilled. And it shall end when our land stretches from Arakan to Nuristan, and from Gilgit to Maldives.
@@Aethelwulf_of_Westseaxe take into consideration muslim populations of pakistan and bangladesh and maldives you think they'll conform to your ideas also the sikhs too 🤣
@@kanwarchahal i tend to think of this differently, maybe not an ethnostate. But a theocracy
China is in a state the Soviet Union reached in the 1970s/1980s, when Neo-Stalinism saw the rise of the old guard, growing up during Stalins reign.
TWO MORE WEEKS
I live in China, since the end of covid there has been little to no economic growth
I don't see any foreigners in Beijing and all the new policies such as allowing people to buy homes in Guangzhou (bigger than 120m²) is just another reactive policy
a lot of Chinese have moved to Singapore, etc and there is a new word called 润学 as lots of young people want to leave China
They could start granting true ownership rights instead of leases from the govt. I think it's too late for china to be a great world power but if the democratize now they could still save a sizeable chunk of what they've achieved.
@@RockwellAIM65 probably just change 70 year lease to 100 year lease
but it won't change much
Heck the largest number of illegal immigrants coming to the US are Chinese.
Not really. I work for JPM and we've just published a big report on the future of Chinese housing. China is transitioning to a new housing system based on affordable housing and public housing, rather than speculative housing. Download the report and read it, it's all you need to know.
@@J_X999 then give me a link
Rudyard, you keep voicing exactly what I've been thinking but more fleshed out and detailed.
As someone who has watched China covering TH-cam channels for a few years I have a few points to add.
First, China is facing a similar housing unaffordability as the West. However, to clarify, the Chinese built so many cities that they have more housing units than people. Let that sink in.
Second, Most independent population estimates that I have seen put China's population at around 950 million with the highest estimate being 1.289 billion and a population in decline since 2018.
Third, much of the missing population is in the younger demographics.
Fourth, after the white paper rebellion Laowhy86 reached out to his friends in China and had them contact people they knew who took part in the rebellion. Everyone had already disappeared.
Overall, I am not very confident that the Chinese citizens (military is different) will be able to pull off a rebellion with the lack of youth, tight state control, and a docile culture among other factors. I see a change in dictatorship (i.e. a military coup) as more likely.
Good stuff 👍
I loved in China for 4 years and I gotta say, you are so spot on.
On the topic of religion, I think China is ripe for prophets to establish new religious expressions. China already has a rich religious tradition but its varied and disorganized. It has a millennia old stories, gods, practices, and other things that would be coopted by a new religion. It will probably contain elements of buddhism, daoism, and/or christianity
@@content_enjoyer4458 I really want China to become Muslim. That would be awesome.
@@LarryWaterSame
China is set to over take the USA as the country with the most Christians over the next few years I believe. despite the communist parties best efforts to persecute them. Christianity has often done well under persecution. Christianity has also spread very fast in South Korea. The Islamic world has been perfectly happy to ignore what China has been doing so I wouldn't hold out much hope of them having much influence.
Falun Gong is really the dark horse candidate here. They have millions of followers in China despite suffering 25 years of persecution and established a base of anti-CCP operations outside China early on, building up a powerful media organization that reaches a good chunk of the overseas diaspora and even inside the PRC (via VPN).
@@LarryWater Why the hell should China become Muslim 🤮
China reminds me of Azula from Avatar the Last Airbender. She’s ruthlessly efficient in the good times, but the moment things don’t go her way, she becomes more authoritarian, driving people away. Her growing need to be absolutely perfect and efficient ended up destroying what she herself built.
I disagree with that, Azula was a manipulator who was a underling of her father. China is none of that upsept a mamipulator which could be heavily debated, however Azula became more authoritarian because she gained more power. China has become the opposite and throughout history has opened uo more and more.
I had a good job at a Chinese university but I decided to not go back after COVID because it was obvious which way that society was going once they started blaming foreigners for what was clearly their fault
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp How is the Chinese economy collapsing may I ask?
@@YourSocialistAutomaton Because Chinese people have massive amounts of money tied up in property and the property bubble is collapsing. It's called debt deflation
@@YourSocialistAutomatonI said good point earlier and while I still hold true that it’s not a 1 to 1 comparison (that wasn’t the point) the idea that China is opening up is ludicrous when all one can witness is a nation putting up a cosmopolitan facade while in actuality it’s littered with democratic backsliding and contempt for foreigners.
Excellent analysis and a cool tip of the hat to Peter Zeihan.
Pretty solid thought process
This century is looking spicy.
China is no stranger to the dynastic cycle
China is just cursed at this point
They gotta just give it up, or change doing a full 180
I think this collapse will force them to change a prophet of a new religion does sound very interesting either that or they’ll pick up on Buddhism since it helps with suffering and because of its geographical proximity to Tibet and the majority of Buddhism in the world
Romans were no stranger to the dynastic cycle
@@sinoromanChinese civilisation managed to keep being Chinese but the romans didn’t have the best track record, no one claims to be Romans now.
The descendants of the Chinese monetarily poor relative to the romans though.
I think in terms of population, every nation is going to have to address declining fertility. As the world population closes in on its estimated ~11 billion carrying capacity, fertility is going to HAVE to decline in order for us to stop overpopulation and catastrophe. I think is some sense we are already seeing this happen in countries.
There is no overpopulation mate. Check the stats
I hope you are right. Very enjoyable post.
Thank god needed something to watch over dinner 🙏
What people think revolution in China will result in: "YAY LIBERALISM, YAY PROGRESSIVISM, YAY LGBTQIAAAA+++, YAY INTERSECTIONALISM"
What revolution in China will ACTUALLY result in: National Military Junta.
Why would the Western managerial class be discontent with Western capitalism when they control the private companies more than the state? "Managerial" as a term literally comes from corporate management.
Damn, just discovered this channel, I’m a fan
New Whatifalthist video dropped!
BABE GET UP RUDYARD UPLOADED!!!!!1!!11!1!!!!!
I’ve been watching Winston from Serpentza since 2012 or 2013. I haven’t seen every video of his over these past 12 years but a good number of them. I never saw any dishonesty as being an issue and he covered all sorts of good things about Chinese culture as well as issues.
I wouldn't accuse them of dishonesty so much as being overly focused on the negatives of China as well as being very childish. As a counter-balance to them I recommend Gweilo60 and Daniel Dumbrill (both of who live in China currently) I also currently live in China and I find Gweilo60 to be more correct.
A Brilliant Analysis of an Inevitable Catastrophe!!!!
Thanks for the video!
Love your content 😊😊
Excellent!
Serpentza a South African TH-camr (who lived in China) always talks about this.
Yeah that guy who fake his degree to get a job in china until the chinese govt start cracking down on foreigner lol😅😅😅😅
Haven't been this early, since this was a alt-history channel.
Hello. My name is Sun. I am a Chinese. Though I do not fully agree with you regarding your prediction of China, you video is great. And I might have answers to some of your questions.
Your perspective would be interesting.
Pray tell
Everything is fine till the comment gets deleted by CCP
@@hebercluff1665 1. just between 1959-1961, under Mao's control, the death toll is between 15-60 million. During culture revolution, unnatural death toll is between 0.3-0.5 million per year. Culture revolution lasted 10 year, thus at least 3-5 million death number. Started from 1921 to 1976, total death toll under Mao would far exceeded 30 million. 2. China mainland population shall be less than 1.4 billion in 2023. The CCP plant parenthood has long standing practice of falsehood birth rate to maintain its power and profit. According to an unverified Japanese research, according to salt consumption, the Chinese mainland population shall not exceed 0.8 Billion. Disregard such research, China mainland's population age distribution is inaccurate. Right now, the biggest portion shall be round 55-65ish, the generation born right in the end of culture revolution. The total population number will take a sharp dive with in 30 years. In 2060, CCP would feel very luck if the total population number is beyond 0.8 billion.
@@luciosun9823 thanks!
People always hyperventilate over China's GDP (if you believe their numbers) but get angry or quiet if questioned about per capita GDP.
Rise of nations my favourite game of the 2000s. Why you need to have many Natural resources is so key as you'll see in this game..