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Idk it looks likes there's enough space for a safe pass.

For simple drives its much easier to have FSD handle it.

I appreciate the thoughtful response. I'm just thinking out loud here, so nice sarcastic quips and all, but no need. I feel like you're kinda overestimating the degree of cum and shit that would accumulate in the cars. I definitely agree they would need to be cleaned frequently, but that seems like the kinda thing you could do a few times a week while it's not ride hailing. There'd probably be the occasional disgusting mess, but I'd be surprised if it were to the extent you're suggesting, especially when you have cameras running inside that could charge people for not cleaning up after themselves. Lot of ways to incentivize people to be decent passengers. Also, the model I was basing this math off of DOES take into account depreciation of the vehicle. But as I stated, the math is all speculative anyway. If the vehicle can pay for itself in a year or two or ride hailing, and then everything thereafter is pure profit... why wouldn't you want to do that?

all of his accounting is fantasy nonsense, so arguing over small details like this is pointless.

This is simply not true. I say this as somebody who lives somewhere outside of the USA and who "knows a thing or two" (to undersell myself) about public transport in places like tokyo. There are places where there is cheap public transit as in it costs less, but only if your time is worth nothing. Very very few places in the world have public transport worth taking if your time is valuable. point to point unattended taxi services as the public transport of the future that hits the sweet spot of time-vs-cost. It is coming. Obivously. It obviously won't be consumer grade teslas like this video suggests it might be, but it is coming.

So why aren't they buying waymos?

@@toomanyaccounts Because it's not there yet, right now it would be a liability for those companies.

1. Privacy - You're twisting the argument. People would prefer to not be in a cab with another person if they have the option. It's really that simple. 2. Consistency - Yes, consistency is better here. You're not rolling the dice and getting old corollas picking you up with shitty cloth seats. You're getting very comfortable leather seats, nice speakers, and a car that has the best crash test scores of any vehicle on the road. 3. Comfort - I was talking about seats and interior space. Yes there are of course more comfortable cars out there. but again the point here is that you're not getting an old corolla picking you up. 4. Music - Maybe generational. Regardless the ease of using the app to control music is a big advantage. 5. Safety - you're doubting the potential of exponential improvement here, I believe. 6. Infotainment - lol, why so reluctant to admit that being able to stream TV while you're being driven to your destination would be an obvious advantage? 7. Advertisements - What's weird about it? You could save even more money using a robotaxi by opting into advertisements. More cost savings for the user. Having that choice is a benefit.

@@DeusExTesla thanks for the reply. 1/ Privacy. I stand by my opinion. Offline is more private. If you want to call it less human interaction then it's a bonus - but having all this recorded an stored online is NOT more private. Call this section ISOLATION. 3/ Comfort. Tesla's are mid-range for comfort and a lot less roomy and spacious when compared to Merc or BMWs. Perhaps we catch different cabs. 4/6 The need for music / entertainment on a small screen has never struck me during a cab ride ever. But then I just go across town. If the price comes down so much then maybe I'll take a 1-2 hour ride ? And then it's an issue? 7/ Ads. I thought you wanted privacy and comfort and no intrusion. Accepting ads being blared at you while riding seems counter to points 3/4/6. And finally safety. I guess eventually this will win out. But not on a road with 95% human drivers who do unexpected things, being driven by a clever EXPERT system that is NOT AI and cannot react to unexpected events with the same level of ability as a 10yo. As a techie, programmer, team leader, developer of 20+ years, I see the limitations of the current system in it's error handling. it's THIS that worries me - not the handling of routine traffic. TO get true Level 5 and AI like driving FSD will have to be re-engineered from the bottom up ... this current system is a good expert system - but it is NOT foolproof ... and there are a lot of fools on the road. Anyway - thanks for the video and your thoughts - interesting - but I think auto driving it's still 5-10 years away despite Elon's regular promises of "next year" ... which he's been saying since 2017. Appreciate the chat.

@@user-rs2es1of6d 1- fair enough, semantics difference I guess. 3 - I feel like your point boils down to "because it's not the most comfortable, therefore it isn't comfortable." again, my argument would simply be that receiving a tesla as your uber is preferable to a corolla. Uber literally has an option to only hail electric vehicles at a premium -- so between it being electric and luxury level, i stand by my point. 4/6 - just because you don't want it doesn't mean others won't. I feel like you're being really reluctant to concede what seems like a really simple and obvious point. 7 - yeah i mean this is admittedly a wildcard. but for people looking for the cheapest possible transportation, having ads in the car would mean more revenue for tesla, and less cost to the consumer, so it's a win/win. I obviously can't say for sure that this will manifest, but I thought I'd include it anyway, as it struck me as an interesting idea. as for the rest of the discussion, I see driving as a game of chess (though obviously far more complex). And just as computers have mastered chess, they will master driving. Your time horizon is less optimistic than mine. If you haven't tried out V12, i highly recommend it. It's really a quantum leap. Oh also, there are already lots of robotaxis out there, in various forms. So it's already a feasible technology. Just a question now of whether tesla's approach will scale faster or slower. I too appreciate the chat, thanks for being chill.

Tesla may or may not pay for the insurance. In the numbers I used for the video, the assumption is that you would pay for the insurance. Could be percentage, could be flat fee. I can't predict the future. Can you? I listed several advantages in the video... that's the ONLY one you see?

Because they'd have gone bankrupt by now if they had stockpiled 6 million cars that weren't yet able to drive themselves. By selling to customers they can make profit now, and then they can make even more in the future.

I agree. Some do not, for some reason.

Whoever rides in the robotaxi next can report an issue, and can refuse the ride. The owner or vehicle manager would likely then get notified that there's an issue with the vehicle that they need to remedy. There may be some cases where you can't definitively figure out who made the mess, but in some cases you'll likely be able to check the interior camera feed and figure it out. Not sure why privacy is an issue here... it's not like you have privacy in a regular taxi.

@@DeusExTesla no, privacy is not an issue. Is one of your points in the video tho.

Explain what you mean?

@@DeusExTesla elon is eliminating the human from the earnings equation, Tesla will exclusively use their own fleet, not the customers. eventually even having robots work in the factories that make their privately owned fleet.

It will take time to build the fleet, and the factory that builds the fleet. You don't think in the meantime they'll want to use customer cars that are already distributed across the US? By doing so they could ensure their ride hailing service is worked out ahead of time for the launch of the actual CyberCab

@@DeusExTesla they are already testing model 3's, removed the rear view mirrors, added more cameras.....photos online no human drivers, no customer vehicles

@@2funny269 If you're taking the actions of the company as evidence, then you'd take into consideration that on the most recent earnings call, Elon reiterated that customers will be able to add their vehicles to the fleet. Plus there are several images and even video of their upcoming ride hailing app explicitly showing someone hailing a Model Y. It literally says Model Y. These images are no doubt mockups/work in progress, but the intent appears to be in tact. Since the intent is clearly there, you have to tell me why it won't happen, or can't.

lol. As if Optimus is anywhere near such capabilities. Self-charging itself is still not around either. Nor will robo-taxis be. It's all vaporware.

I think robotaxis could pull up to superchargers, park, and blurt out a sound file from the outside speakers asking someone nearby to plug it in. Whoever plugs it in could maybe get a charging credit or something (to incentivize people to plug it in)

​@@winterhaydn Oh ye of little faith, most of the charging can be done with the Solid Metal Snake chargers which by now are ubiquitous, so the OptImi will only be needed during peak. Granted Tesla will need to hire a few thousand people to run the haptic/motion capture for now, but that means they can hire back some of the recent layoffs. In the downtime they can even take turns at remotely driving the robtaxis, thereby fulfilling the statement “it’s the same software that runs fsd, robtaxi and Optimus”. It rhymes so hard it’s poetry.

@@DeusExTesla you mean like a gas station attendant?

@@lasseholopainen8097 - Solid metal snake chargers? The kind that were mentioned a few years ago and then never brought up again? Yeah, tell me how that's working out.

Me too. I love taking public transit home from a bar at 2 in the morning, when the other riders are crazy and or drunk.

@@typhoon320i Exactly! When I was much younger we relied on those night time trams in our city to get home after some bar hopping. Our favorite feature is that one doesn’t need money or phone to hop on one)

1/3 more of a pain in the ass to watch this thing creep like a snail.

Interesting, I hadn't considered the idea that people could opt into driving it themselves if they wanted.

I personally doubt that robotaxis will have a steering wheel and pedals! Unnecessary expenses.. and a serious space grab and constraint to interior design!

@st-ex8506 You are incredibly naïve. How do you even get by in life? Absolutely no regulator is going to allow removal of human steering controls. In fact, no regulator is going to allow robotaxis. They need level 5 autonomy for that. And they're only at level 2.

@@winterhaydn I am certainly not the naïve one here. Robotaxis are ALREADY approved in several US cities, and… in China! For that, they need only to reached Level 4 autonomy (which means geofenced), NOT Level 5, which means everywhere, including rural dirt roads! And Level 4 is already achieved, although admittedly still at pilot scale. You should get better informed!

@@st-ex8506 - No. Robotaxis were "approved" for minor areas, but that was only because laws hadn't caught up to this human experiment. Now they're being shutdown until fully investigated due to the number of crashes. And with data working against them, including an abundance of camera phone clips, it'll be a steep hill to climb. Tesla (or rather Musk) *says* they are nearly at level 5, but *legally* they state they are still at 2 with no foreseeable level 5 (and, in fact, Musk privately claimed he doesn't expect them to get passed 2). This is because they *must* meet their tested level and operate that way on streets. Unless/until they can prove otherwise to NHTSA and other govt bodies, they can't move on. China is far stricter (saner) than the U.S. for public safety measures. They are not allowing this stuff willy-nilly. It will get limited zones to work within. And that's not going to help them significantly. -- Speaking as someone who's travelled China's city streets, the maze-like and often unpredictable paths, combined with busy-ness that makes NYC look like a walk in the park, is going to be a nightmare for FSD. People who are counting on China to boost Tesla immediately really don't know the obstacles there. Once again, you're buying into the king of hype's false promises.

Each and every robotaxi will indeed be akin to a goose laying golden eggs! If you run the numbers, it is impressive. It will dwarf the present profits Tesla makes from EVs! But you obviously have not!

@@st-ex8506 ... so why does Tesla want to sell them ?

Probably won't in the future.

@@user-sp6tl3nq8w good question! Maybe they won’t sell robotaxis, it is a possible business concept… or they will charge royalties on every mile driven by robotaxis for profit… we might know more on 8/8… BTW, reach and every Tesla built after 2018 will be able to be operated as a robotaxi!

@st-ex8506 I have a bridge I can sell you. bahahahaha

Don't be silly. The first thing you learn in a Business 101 class is companies charge the maximum price that the market will bear. Robotaxis are not going to be cheap, don't kid yourself. Robotaxi companies are NOT friends to the public. And a human driver is far more skilled than a simpleton FSD beta software. There's no comparison .

Lets say a person without a car needs rides Monday thru Friday: 5 rides to work 20 miles away 5 rides home from work 20 miles away 5 rides to the grocery store or health club 5 miles away 5 rides home from grocery/health club 5 miles away So that's 20 rides 250 miles, just Monday thru Friday. How much would 20 robotaxi rides cost? And then on the weekend, even longer and more expensive Taxi rides . And this is supposed to be cheaper than owning your own car? .

@@DerekDavis213The 20 rides you mentioned will cost $30-50, i.e. just the cost of gasoline for those 250 miles!

You just described a person who would probably want/need their own car. You could have described someone different, for whom a Robotaxi WOULD be cheaper, you just chose not to so you could appear correct XD

@@DerekDavis213 And that's my point... I think we agree. It needs to be cheap enough to motivate that person you described into not having a car. Perhaps the Fleet of cyber cab will be dirt cheap for the common man and if someone wants to pay a premium then a model S or a model 3 willl pick them up... I'm not sure how it will all work

A human driver is far more skilled than the simple minded Taxi software. There is no comparison. More skilled = a safer ride for the public.

@@DerekDavis213 LOL you really don't get it do you

Why would you want to pay more?

@@tatata1543 ??? do you have trouble thinking

@@roger_is_red I get it, Tesla and Uber want to make money with Robotaxis. But they are not needed, and they are less safe than a human driver. Its very simple

You seem very against the idea, even if it were as safe and cheaper than a human Uber or Lyft.

I feel this is likely a pretty conservative estimate for a variety of reasons. Perhaps I'll make a video soon discussing the topic. I'd rather underestimate the earnings than overestimate for the moment.

I'll consider adding that in the future!

Honestly they felt pretty reasonable to me--they were pushing the turn radius pretty hard, especially the first one. Maybe a little room for improvement but definitely acceptable.

@@DeusExTesla Appreciate the feedback. Excited to get my MY after the refresh!

I'm excited for you!

People keep thinking it can't or won't get better, and it keeps getting better. I think it's just a question of when, not if.

@@DeusExTesla In fairly familiar with reinforcement learning, and I'm not saying it won't improve, but I do think it may plateau below an acceptable safety level due to the hardware. Your video demonstrates the issue fairly well; how can a camera tell the difference between a horizontal stick 3 feet away and a larger version, which could be a bridge or whatever, 250 feet away? Not easily. And generally speaking, improving live modeling in RL either requires a better model or more compute. But it seems like there's been plenty of time for the model of the environment to be about as good as it's going to get. Anyway, I appreciate that you're being cautious in your testing, unlike some ppl.

You'd refuse to drive the safest car in the world even if you were paid a million dollars? Very rational...

@DeusExTesla You could try giving me a $3.5 Million Rimac Nevera and add $1 Million USA Dollars cash 💸 💵 💸 💰 I still will reject it.

@DeusExTesla Ifit so safe than why did I see 4 Tesla's crash into each other? They have cameras there's footage on this media.

​. Until they drive thru swarm of bugs.. I will never sit in an Electric Vehicle's. The following is why: Lithium mining is a Toxic process to the community's surrounding it. From fine dust blowing thru children in playground 's to the Ground Water 💧 being poisoned. The same occurrence happens to when the Lithium-Ion Battery 🔋 Packs are at their end life usage. They most likely end up like in Hawaii until they burned the Islands 🏝 from Agust to Mid September. Was in conversation with someone out there in June and he said they were stacked up 30 feet high and millions throughout. There was one fire, and Thermo Expansion and Runoff, and a hurricane which accelerated the spread of fires 🔥. ... now any guesses on why they were stacked so high to burn down everything around them. No Recycling Centers. In the United States there were 4. Though, 3 weeks ago April 2024 the one in Phoenix Arizona location burned 🔥 down.. I mentioned there was footage of 4 Tesla's in a single Collision. They were Totalled and end up in an Unpaved Junkyard. .. I viewed in Tesla Repair videos where the Bad cells Leak a Brownish Orange 🍊 colored Gel. It's Corrosive Acidic and Toxic to our Ground Water 💧. . I mentioned there were 4 Recycling ♻️ Centers, and none are in the State of California. Due to Environmental Impact. Now do you know I couldn't live with myself driving something that is toxic to Ground Water. Gas powered engine is easily Re-Forged into a new engine, or something else. Electric Vehicle's (EV's) may clean the Air temporarily, though they catch fire and won't stop until Lithium-Ion Battery Packs is completely burn. Smoke and Chemical Burns... imagine all EV's only . In a 2 mile Tunnel like New York or a 20 mile city Tunnel in The Ozark Mountains ⛰️ traffic and the vehicle is burning. The one next to yours will burn you car. Electric functions won't open doors. 👦👍🏎🏁🚩 Gasoline ⛽️ V8 is cleaner to Environment, than EV. Carbon Dioxide is absorbed by Trees 🌳 🌲 Plants 🪴. Our Ground Water is not affected.

I'm sure you know better than the team at Tesla :)

@@DeusExTesla I admit I don't know how to fix their obvious recurring failure, but maybe they should ask Waymo...

Musk commented that they were compute-constrained for a long time. This means that FSD v12.3 has been learning with some limits. So it probably has quite seriously reduced capabilities to recognize all little patterns. Or to distinguish between good and bad behavior in all cases. Let's wait for v. 12.4, as it is supposed to be trained with full potential. Tesla will of course still want to have more training data, but AI reasoning should be much more complete.