Which Apocalypse Today? AMOC Collapse VS 2C Now
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.พ. 2024
- Some crazy weeks while I've been out for medical. In this video I explore the new AMOC paper everyone's wild about, share some signals you can watch to get a bead on if AMOC is down, and tell you why I think we need to keep an eye on the 2C projections for the immediate future.
Here's a link to the paper:
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
Here are two visualization tools you might want to bookmark:
climatereanalyzer.org/clim/ss...
zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-e...
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This is pretty depressing stuff Dr. Schoerning... It's hard to imagine the implied global societal breakdown that this 'collapse' scenario presents as opposed to a gradual worsening on a relatively predictable climate path that we've been on. I'm in my early 20s. I really thought I'd have until my 30s till the curtains start to close. It's hard to balance the desires to take advantage of the relative "good times" that we have left - global tourism, making money,the general weath and excess of today - versus getting ready for the decades to come by settling down in Green Bay or something.
@Jimbaneighba it sucks so much. I'm sorry to have to share such grim news. But it does make it very important to be alive now!
Whatever you dream of doing, this is a good year to do it! Keep your body healthy and don't develop a taste for excess. If you know where to go when you feel the urge to go to ground (and yes! Green Bay is good!), you should let yourself live as good and free a life as you can. Develop skills, relationships, and trust me. I'm not the only geriatric millennial who is at the stage of life to be settled and preparing. When the time comes, we need people at your stage of life to show up and help.
Enjoying the good times is important. I'm getting ready, and I also intend to get down to the gulf this spring with my family and spend some time enjoying now.
A geriatric Gen-X chiming in - yes, we will need you young people to come help us. We have space for you.
As someone in their 50's, I am so sorry for all the younger generations. I knew things were worse than scientists have been saying for years but didn't think it would go south quite this fast. Things really do seem to be accelerating at an alarming rate. My wife really wants to travel, but I have been redirecting our resources towards resiliency...for our children and grandchildren. I don't see any hope for humanity, but I can try to make life a bit more bearable for my family for as long as possible. If that is my legacy, I'll take it...
Thanks for speaking about this paper, your perspective is appreciated. Also, glad you’re recovering well from surgery. 💖
@mamapretz, thank you!
Welcome back! Glad to have you back and pray all is well,
Thank you! Surgery was successful! I am healing well & am likely to be in much better health than before.
Welcome back! Good to see you back at work!
@jaycoldwell thanks!
Soo glad everything went well! Glad to have u back 💓
@OrianJamieson28, thank you!
Hey Dr Emily- so glad you’re back and doing well (it seems) and this is a heavy topic to come back with lol.
I’m looking forward to seeing future videos from you where you are able to integrate slightly more clear AMOC info along with the other trajectories. I’m in inland NYer, finger lakes, and close to the Great Lakes (one of ‘em anyway) and while you’re emphasizing that upper Midwest, I do see/feel that parts of NY are possibly also “life boat” regions, so hopefully the entire North East doesn’t seem totally off the destinations list. Regardless, we are gonna hunker down and do the regenerative and adaptive work here and I’ve been able to share your videos with others (who seem really hungry and ready for it- I kinda think more people than we expect will show up as grown ups, as things enter weirder territory)
I think now is really the time to embrace calm urgency and get important work done over the next few years. Glad I’ve detoxed so much from business as usual and anything resembling a “normal” American or western lifestyle. Fortune favors the prepared mind! Big hugs to you
@Corrie-fd9ww you bring up critical points in this thoughtful comment. You are correct that there are smaller "life boat" regions, absolutely, and I strongly suspect the finger lakes are on that list. Here's the thing. I feel like, the big pocket around my place, it's the only one of those lifeboats with serious capacity worth advertising. The audience for this channel is pretty small now, but many of the lifeboats are fragile. What's a good way to talk about them without overexposing them?
Yes! Resilient lifestyle for the win! The freedom that embracing what is today a still unusual lifestyle has given me and my family- it's amazing. We have fun and we feel we have been meaningfully unchained.
Absolutely right to focus on capacity and that is such an important aspect to focus on. And the Midwest is definitely a region to focus on for that.
I also just watched your drug induced vision video lmao, you are super fun when you’re mildly hopped up on goofballs. I’m actually a big fan of prophetic visions, but the kind that are grounded in earth, in how earth works, and in wisdom traditions. This path we are all on really means, for me, being in alignment with the old ways of wisdom, and a whole lotta that is “common sense”, being able to zoom in to details but also let go of that to zoom out big picture, and just a whole bunch of other skills that actually, indigenous people and wisdom traditions have embodied since forever, and they’ve been sharing that wisdom since forever. The most accurate visions or predictions I’ve found are those that come from people who embody peace and are living that way. There’s something to be said for stillness relating to clarity. And America has no chill, and most of the talking heads out there also have no chill lol. Long story short, I’m always so happy to find grounded and wise people (like you!) and the value they bring is only gonna increase
Appreciate your kind words- and I feel like if you watch this one and then 120 Degrees, you really see the point where I run out of whatever juice runs my critical thinking skills! Also, I love it when I run into someone else who says hopped up on goofballs- awesome
🤣🤣🤣 upstate New Yorkers and upper mid westerners gotta stick together, we share similar accents and sayings that the rest of the world doesn’t understand 🤣
Btw- one of my truly super duper fun skills I’ve been working at the last 4 or so years- herbalism- has me formulating really strong stuff for when meds are tough to come by because Walgreens has reduced operating hours and a lot less inventory. It won’t quite be goofballs level but it’s a goal, anyway 🤣
@Corrie-fd9ww that is a powerful skill to have, and so important! There are many, many powerful plants that can grow across our likely climate spectrum in these regions. I can identify some strong plants, but I have zero formulating experience...
My fist video I've watched of yours. Awesome work. All the best.
Thank you!
It's like you know exactly what I'm trying to Google frantically and then you release a video. Thank you so much for your work! And I'm glad ur recovering well. Please do video on 2024 hurricane predictions.
@farhanmalik6576 hah, thanks! I'm glad we're on the same wavelength. You know, the hurricane thing is really crazy, the modeling that has been done over water as hot as we may see is very limited! I will keep an eye out and pull some sources together, I am sure many people will be interested.
Welcome back, Emily! Sobering video... it really put some big life deicions I have to make soon into perspective.
@cynthiathomas126, thank you! And I agree, all this is definitely changing the way my family makes long-term life decisions. My husband and I do not feel a lot of anxiety about our retirement accounts... how can we believe the current systems will be there in 30 years? He has dreamed about opening a used bookstore for a long time, but never felt like it was worth the risk. Now we feel like, when is there a better time to live the life you want? I wish you confidence and peace in your decisions. Sometimes there is no best answer. We just do the best we can.
@@AmericanResiliency Wise words. Now IS the time to take those risks. Tomorrow is never promised.
Glad you’re back and healthy!
@michaelbehlen1842 thank you!
Thank you for your videos
@Frank-oz8be, you are welcome
I'm really glad we're having this conversation. It feels like a relief to discuss it and begin to plan for what to expect.
A few questions:
If AMOC collapses is it a one and done thing? Or does it stop/start like a manual transmission being driven by a teenager?
How fast will we see and feel the effects of collapse? Is it somewhat gradual or will we be hit hard and fast with the worst it can deliver? I'm imagining food will be the first area to impact the majority of us, followed by shipping delays maybe? I don't really know, I'm just spitballing. I can't imagine a world with no AMOC or how it will change real life for most people.
Will the politicians even care I wonder? 🤔 Most of them can't be bothered to take climate change seriously so I'm trying to imagine how this impacts our political system if it does collapse.
@pendragon_cave1405 these are important questions to frame the conversation. I will give my best answers.
1. If it goes down, my impression is it'll be down for a long time. A prolonged period of glacial regeneration, of freshwater uptake, seems like it would be needed to start the cycle back up. So in some ways, at least this gives us a smoother ride- hah!
2. I agree this world is hard to imagine. Our modeling post AMOC has worse time resolution than we've devoted to modeling 1.5C, 2C, 3C, and worse space resolution. So science's ability to visualize the post AMOC world, it's not as strong in several ways.
I think there will be notable freaky storms, notable really weird weather patterns, pretty soon after collapse. Like, that year. We'd expect to see really weird deformations in the southern hemisphere water cycle pretty quickly. That's gonna drive all kinds of scary biodiversity crash stuff in the Amazon, there will be cascading effects- it's hard to predict. Staying alert and processing incoming information will be important, a sense of curiosity and flexibility will be critical!
I would predict food and shipping will get weird that year, but they're already getting weird to a degree, right? For many people, it will probably feel like things are getting worse, but they may not recognize what changed if they aren't paying attention. People who are in tune with the ocean will probably recognize the change first. I hear some interesting chatter on water forums about unusual mass movement of fish this year.
This connects to
3. I would not expect any meaningful top-down response to this crisis. Especially if AMOC goes down in the next few years, it will be too much to mitigate in any meaningful way. Perhaps I am too grim, but the way things are going, it looks like "leadership" will be all sociopaths trying to maintain power and make sure they eat the last crabs. That's why ground-up and community-oriented thinking is so important, and why we need to know what signs to watch.
@@AmericanResiliency thank you for the in depth response! It's such a huge thing to try and imagine!l. I'm sure there are predictions out there that have some modeling, etc but my impression is that it's the type of event that we can't really predict the many ways it will impact us.
And yeah, I expect the rich and powerful to show their true colors even more clearly when shit hits the fan. Crabs all the way down, lol 🦀
@pendragon_cave1405 what modeling there is for this scenario is much less accessible, even to other scientists who aren't right in the discipline. Even 3 years ago, AMOC collapse was seen as a far-out-there type problem. Like, scientists would talk about it as a possible tipping point, but not a lot of people thought it would happen in our lifetimes.
I'm going to try and keep my finger on the literature coming out. Lot of hard-working lab folks will be begging for computing resources to get us all the information they can. I think there's a certain value also, though, in accepting that we are looking into a reality that is somewhat unknown.
Interesting analysis. The principle that we need to be flexible and mobile as a culture because climate shifts occur is sound. Thanks for this video!
@elirothblatt5602 you're welcome, glad you found it interesting!
New subscriber! ❤ high up people should be speaking to you! I wish you could reach officials or make speeches and just spread your information! It’s so digestible for the everyday American! Thank you and please help us ❤thank you for all you do!
I'll keep working on it! This channel has reached about 200k visitors so far, and we keep growing. Thanks for your kind words. It matters a lot to me to help people get info in a way they can use.
re: AMOC, I think you would better describe it as confirming that the AMOC is indeed a meta-stable system subject to a tipping point. We have seen evidence that it has in fact slowed. That does happen, just appears to happen gradually until it falls off a cliff.
@Mike80528 you are right, that's a more accurate description. But the important part is the tip! And the existence of the tipping point is the part of the scientific debate that has been getting fuzzed in the popular presentation. Another reason I emphasize the existence of the tip is because the on/off function of the system is so much more impactful than the range of slowing effects, if that makes sense.
Thank you for sharing this important information and keeping the public informed. In terms of agricultural advantage, how do the projections look for southern and Baja California look when and after the AMOC collapses?
@sbh_24 unfortunately I would see substantial difficulties for that area in both scenarios. Under the projected warming pathway (pre-AMOC) we expect to lose ag capacity in these areas due to continuing heat and drought trend. While an AMOC collapse might bring down the heat a little, the drought trend is likely to persist, and the coastal development in that region would be slammed pretty hard by sea level rise. Very disruptive for shipping.
In either scenario, sustainable water use is the key resilience goal for the region.
Wishing you all the best- it is difficult to maintain fortitude in such conditions, but if water access can be secured, there is still potential. Coastal desalination has come a long way and increasingly can be done in a way that is not harmful to the life in coastal waters. The city of Haifa in Israel has moved over to desalination as a primary water source. They are doing excellent ecological documentation, helping to share knowledge with other dry coastal cities.
@@AmericanResiliency how do you think the adoption and use of salt water treatment plants on the southern california coast would help?
A TON. And we're fortunate, this technology will be ready for use, with environmental impact studies for how to do it with minimal harm to coastal ecosystems. In the city of Haifa, in Israel, urban coastal desalination is being implemented, studied, and shared in a big way.
Thank you so much, it's sobering information, but much needed. I was wondering if you could give some advice, or rather help me with a few questions I'm wresting with.
How should one live with this being a reality? Say you're single with no children, should I have them? In the Pacific North West, how bad will things even be there?
And I can help but wonder, what comes "after?"
Again, thank you for your amazing work. It's great to see that you're recovering well =)
@ryanfields6825, I think about these questions often. Including the reality you mention, that what we're looking at with these models is the "first turn of the screw", that conditions will change in ways that are unpredictable beyond that.
I am currently processing the information for the Washington state 2C outlook. That should be released March 7th. A lot of folks are waiting on the new PNW info & I'm working to get it out to you. Some of the changes I am seeing in the projections are extremely concerning but I'm not finished building my understanding. I am seeing surprisingly consistent positive signs in eastern Washington.
This is a longer response, but maybe it will be helpful for you... In 2020 you could say I kinda went nuts or maybe I had an awakening. I'm still not sure, because who knows how things will shake out? I decided, I had to live in such a way I felt right about it, now. I decided, I had to identify which of my desires were my own, and which were my desires I was sold.
I went from a six-figures leadership position and all the consumption that goes with it to a very different lifestyle. I don't need to sell all my brain products, I can think the thoughts I want to think, I can spend a lot more time with the land. My family lives in poverty according to the federal guidelines, but I dunno. We don't feel poor. We have a lot of fun.
To me, the fundamental answers to your question, they're very personal. What is at the heart of the life you want to live? Many people would say, don't have children at this time. My youngest child was born before 2020, but I had a very strong desire to have children from my youth, and I had all the children I wanted to have. I deeply wanted children and I would have suffered not to have my children. Even when I am super frustrated with their shenanigans I think about how on some fantasy timeline where I didn't have them I would be so miserable and longing for them.
My children will face what is coming for us all. But they appear to enjoy their lives very much at this time. We do our best to cultivate resilience in them, to give them good educations, to get them established in an areas that is likely to be safe. No one was ever born with any guarantees.
Anyone who is on the fence about kids, don't have kids. They're a lot of work. But there is also tremendous joy in family life. I think for people with an intense desire for children, there is a reason we have the desires we are not sold.
Thanks!
Appreciate this- thanks so much!
Has anyone done a study of the jetstream impact from an AMOC collapse?
The thing that would be the biggest risk to the great lakes would be either the jetstream continuously dipping south or climbing north.
As heat builds in the tropical atlantic, I would expect those weather patters to strengthen, throwing powerful storms further north and inland. If the jetstream dips, well we all know what lake effect snow looks like, but imagine that times 2 or 3.
The models do a good job of measuring the averages, but anyone in the midwest can tell you, average doesnt mean crap if you swing from 10 degrees to 90 in one day, or get all your rain for the month in one thunderstorm.
I'm gonna put a paper link here for you. Pretty nice first-decades modeling of this scenario on a variety of factors. Though, I don't think the modeling integrates continued warming as well, so, we don't really know how these models will interact.
One of the authors, Taschetto, made the full text available:
www.researchgate.net/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/link/633621dc76e39959d6857360/download
"There are huge non climate effects of carbon dioxide which are overwhelmingly favorable which are not taken into account. To me that's the main issue that the earth is actually growing greener. This has been actually measured from satellites the whole earth is growing greener as a result of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So it's increasing agricultural yields, it's increasing the forests, it's increasing all kinds of growth in the biological world and that's more important and more certain than the effects on climate." ~Freeman Dyson, Institute of Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey.
This is a sweet point you bring up, @liberty-matrix ! I feel like, we're on a planet that wants to heal. If we use the carbon capture techniques that work- like prairie restoration - I haven't given up hope that we can get this system into balance. We've got to work to find a good way forward!
Is there a reference we can look at for how this will impact different regions of the United States? I knw you mentioned upper midwest, but sadly the best options arent always the ones that line up with jobs.
@diversie509 I'm keeping an eye on this but the modeling is not so good as we would like! General rule- sea level rise is going to be a big problem for the east coast under AMOC collapse. My impression is that we understand what will happen to the west coast the least. I suspect that inland towards the east -like Atlanta to Pennsylvania- you have some tolerable prospects. Biggest rule of thumb for AMOC in North America I think will be to get well away from the ocean before it becomes a problem.
@@AmericanResiliency Would the collapse of the AMOC mean more heat in the southern most states on the east coast? or would the heat increase be mainly in the southern hemisphere? Sorry for the questions, its exceedingly difficult to find information about regional changes from a situation like this.
@diversie509 I agree that finding this information is really hard. I have to look pretty deep in-field, it's hard to read, and the resolution isn't as good as we have for other climate modeling.
The heat increase will be focused in the southern hemisphere. I have not seen any specific modeling or predictions for the southeast, and I have been looking! But I always bet on Georgia. I have not seen anything that made me think the inland southeast will face focused heat impacts from AMOC collapse. But I haven't seen- anything. I'll keep an eye out.
Is there any information about how the PNW would fare in AMOC collapse? I'm in the pacific NW, and have decided the trade-off of it being not as good as the great lakes region is worth the fact that my community is already here. Best I can tell there probably wouldn't be massive changes, but I haven't found any papers that publish modeling on a wider range of locations.
@bluebambue I am totally excited to say that I am studying a paper this afternoon that gives us more insight into these regional issues. Good international modeling, too. I'll get the video out in a couple of days.
Whats your thoughts on the North Pacific Gyre, more specifically the Kuroshio current weakening and the blobs of hot water we have seen the past few years. Would we expect a greater Northern Hemispheric cooling if both the Amoc and Pacific North Gyre collapses at roughly the same time?
Whoa! Cool question!
@HoserEh82 I barely know anything about this topic- not enough to give a quality answer. Let me poke around and if I find anything interesting I'll make a video in a few weeks.
@@AmericanResiliencyawesome! thanks for the reply and follow up. The reasson for the question comes from my recent dive into the younger dryas event and how that event was caused by a massive release of fresh water into the Amoc AND the Pacific counterpart. And consequently I noticed a potential modern version of that same event unfolding now, I discovered some scientific papers that discussed the impact of global warming on the Pacific Gyre and the fact the Kuroshio current is weakening and taking a more Pole aligned course. Sorry I am ranting lol, but I find this topic fascinating but I have no scientific cred and wanted to fact check my crazy hypothesis, which is we are facing the real reality of not only the Amoc collapsing soon but The North Pacific and Kuroshio current collapsing as well and that would massively change the climate models....
I totally think this is worth looking into. I mean, we've been getting weird info from Japan, serious climate distress calls. These problems we are dealing with need people looking at them from different angles, I think you have uncovered a possibility worth checking out!
Dang it, @HoserEh82 ! Today was the day I had calendared to research this question, and everything I learned sucks and is terrifying!!!
I'm making a video about it tomorrow. Again, thank you for bringing up these interesting points- this turned out to be important info.
@@AmericanResiliencyI will await your video and again thank you for digging more into this.
Any idea what that means for cuba, DR, PR, etc?
@RJ-sh6ow I'm sad to say I do not think this looks good for any of the Caribbean. The sea level rise (10-13ft global) would have really bad impacts and it looks like there would be more storms coming into the gulf. The part of the ocean where hurricanes form would stay hot more of the year. It really sucks. People in these places are getting hit the worst and they did not hurt the earth the worst. It is not fair.
What temp will release all the methane stored in the continental shelves off the USA coast?
I have been wondering how much of the currently not understood warming spike is related to unmeasured northern hemisphere methane release. Feels like all the urgently released methane observation tools are trying to tell us something.
@@AmericanResiliency Hear about the ~75 rivers and streams on the south side of the Brookes Range, have gone orange from permafrost melt releasing iron into the water?
@unksoldr yeah- horrible. My friend in Halifax has been sending me videos the last couple of years from his friends hiking in the north. Lots more bubbling to be seen- for a couple years- than anyone wants to look at or think about.
@@AmericanResiliency Saw and read about all of this in college 74-78, been watching a slow motion train wreck ever since, my ex called me the 'Prophet of Doom'LOL
@unksoldr the writing has been on the wall for so long! At this stage in the game, I just can't do normal career stuff anymore where you have to behave. It's too late for that. All I want to do is try and give people information that might be useful to them, and enjoy the good times.
What did AMOC stand for?
@smithsmith9510 it stands for Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Which I know is really helpful lol- here's a link from NOAA that explains it pretty clear. Many people think of it just as the gulf stream, which pushes warm water towards England. Otherwise that part of Europe would be colder than Canada.
oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc.html
I live in Europe and it seems we may be screwed.
@HuskerYT it's undoubtably looking rough but I feel like we need more details before we say ALL of Europe is screwed. It's also worth noting, AMOC collapse would not stop the warming trend. So how does that balance out for Europe? I could see things working out for central Europe. I'm going to keep looking for modeling that incorporates multiple earth system trends before I count out the whole continent. I am SURE there will be new research emerging in this area.
You know the geopolitical tensions that run east-west have had the effect of starting wars and coups along the equator separating the global north from the global south. I was looking at the map of where people have died in armed conflict during 2024 and it seems to be a near airtight band across the geographic and maritime chokepoints around the world. As climate change starts to bite, millions will starve because they can’t do the green transition while they’re being shot at. And then the refugee flows will run headlong into the teeth of the most militarized borders in the world.
@JinKee unfortunately I agree, everything you write here is the case. Refugees will be demonized when they are just people trying to live. It's already happening and I can only see it getting much worse. The new immigration restrictions proposed in the US remind me of WW2 era restrictions.
AMOC collapsing is 95 percent certain starting 2025-2100, with most likely a 2050 collapse. So yes it’s hopeless, and it’s going to happen, and if we are alive then, we won’t wanna be. My kids will be in their late 30s.
@brimstonebull, agree it is coming and it's gonna suck. I don't think we're gonna make 2050 before the tip, the hosing off Greenland this winter has been ridiculous...
I completely respect people who would rather hang at the beach and take the fast ticket out on this one. It's an active choice, if people want to get to where there's a chance and dig in. A rational person could choose not to endure the suffering. Me, I'm on the ride as long as I can take it. Try and tend the land, bring as much as I can through the bottleneck.
I'll say this in the name of optimism. Its hard for me to imagine, in the face of the increasingly obvious climate change to come, that we as a civilization will let this escalate until 2100.
@JamesR1986 I think there are many people who want to live in a better way, and do not consider Temu a balm for all ills.