Hurricanes, AMOC, and Wind Maps- Oh My!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.ค. 2024
- This intensely nerdy video is here to answer your top recent questions about hurricane outlooks and AMOC modeling. We start with some info on the near-term hurricane outlook. If you want to get straight to the AMOC paper- big thanks to DJ Jablonsky for finding this gem- jump about 4 minutes in. This gives us a LOT more details about what is modeled to happen in the first 10 years after AMOC turns off, both regionally in the US and around the globe.
Paper available through the kindness of one of the authors, Taschetto, right here:
www.researchgate.net/publicat...
Here's a Discord invite for the week:
/ discord - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Your closing "statement", is the scariest part! There's nothing we can currently do to reverse climate change! We can only make small changes and hope for the best these days.
Yeah, people who want to pretend we can stop this are too late. It's not possible to go back to 1999. We need to respond to change- and clean up our act so we don't create worse problems. Many earth systems have been acting really weird the last six months, hopefully we will drop into modellable territory.
Thanks for the reminder about it being an unusually active fire season...going to go change my air purifier filters!
@creativitycatalyst, you're welcome. I heard news out of Canada yesterday that we should all be expecting an early start to fire season.
Heard that too out of Alberta. 🔥
Thank you. Thank you.
I was SO HAPPY to be able to share this info with you all!!
My area in central Louisiana was hit by two hurricanes in 2020. We had no power for a total of nearly three weeks. I built an emergency solar power setup by myself for a small window air conditioner and got power stations for my freezer, fridge, and the small stuff, plus a cheap gas generator. I can at least cool off but I don`t have the battery capacity to run the AC 24/7 through an extended power outage and I certainly can`t afford daily fuel for the generator. I`ve learned a lot though and can run USB fans 24/7 at least. I ran through over 100 bucks of alkaline batteries in 2020 running pitiful fans. Now I can run 12v and USB fans directly from solar during the day as my big battery charges, then have air conditioning all night and when I sleep. I just got upgraded cables for my system and more panels. I think I can rewire it and get twice the charge as before.
Thank you for sharing the details of this power setup and how you progressed. It is freaking HARD to get a setup that works when SHTF!! That you are now able to have AC running all night, off-grid, is a seriously impressive level of success. I tip my hat, man, I'm nowhere near your level, yet.
I`m really afraid of the amps involved and kept studying and studying wondering if I should even attempt hooking it all up...then last June my area had 80-90 mph winds and I got caught off guard with a half charged (or less) big battery during the beginning of the heat emergency lasted until September. So I was forced to just do it. My tiny AC uses 400 watts and I was able to get 340 watts solar charging so I had cool air from 3am when the storm hit until 6pm that evening. My calculations were for full blast usage but with the thermostat set right I realized I could get three times the run time.
The only reason I turned off the AC at 6pm is I needed sleep and I didn`t want to drain the lithium battery completely to below 11 volts which may damage it. It cost me 1200 bucks, so. What I normally do is charge it with a plug-in charger before storms and my record after multiple power outages was 22 hours of AC but I never ran it dead. When the voltage drops to 12 volts from 13.4 I know it`s getting low. Plus I keep track of the wattage being used.
The battery capacity is listed at 3.8 kwh but Ampere Time 300ah 12v batteries usually have a bit more than listed when new. It has kept me cool through 5 extreme heat emergencies last summer. I`m still afraid to use it full time to save on my AC bill because something might go wrong. I don`t have the money to use all the fail-safe safety features I`d prefer to have because they require expensive tools to install. I`m on SSI disability from a car accident and my brain and neck were damaged so I have thinking problems and I`m really paranoid about it. The camper I live in has 12 solar batteries in it but 11 of them are all-in-one solar power stations, mostly cheap ones I saw for a discount. My two freezer batteries are Bluetti EB70s. I used the stimulus to buy the big battery and my first panels, chargers, and inverter. The battery does have protective built-in safety features and I used a fuse to my inverter. But everything should be fused properly with redundancy and it isn`t. I may use it this year to lower my bill which doubled in cost this year but I need a fuse or breaker between the charger and the battery and between the panels and the charger. I have to get that done somehow so I can increase the charge rate. If I caused a FIRE or a short circuit I`d lose everything. @@AmericanResiliency
How much do you think it would cost you to make it safe? Do you think you could make it safe? When I look at the outlook for your area, failsafe cooling is REALLY important. It sounds to be like you're really close to something a lot of people should find useful. Maybe we can find a way to help you.
Im curious as to how the slowing of the AMOC downwelling will effect phytoplankton upwelling in the antarctic and marine food webs overall.
The way the NCA5 refers to this huge problem is oblique and disturbing and most clear in the chapter on Hawaii. They are projecting a really big decrease of biomass in the Pacific Ocean- like, a 30 percent drop- and then they just move on. The implications are so enormous, how can one just move on?!? I'll be keeping an eye on related incoming information.
@@AmericanResiliency 30% drop in biomass in the largest ocean sounds like an utter catastrophe. That indicates the loss of a ton of phytoplankton which produce most of the oxygen on earth.
AMOC collapse sounds like a mass extinction event.
Hey doc, do you have a link to the consensus data you claim for predicted Big Bend hurricanes, this coming summer? -TIA
@numodular, for sure! I talk about it in this short video & the consensus document link & page number are in the video description.
th-cam.com/video/POESQMuWsew/w-d-xo.html
Is there a link to the paper?
www.researchgate.net/profile/Andrea-Taschetto/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/links/633621dc76e39959d6857360/Interbasin-and-interhemispheric-impacts-of-a-collapsed-Atlantic-Overturning-Circulation.pdf
This is not an open access article, but one of the authors, Taschetto, is sharing it freely!! I'm posting the safe link again here (another person had shared but I don't see it now) & I'll get this link in the video description
www.researchgate.net/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/link/633621dc76e39959d6857360/download
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you! Very much appreciated your insights on this, too.
would AMOC collapse cause the gulf of maine to get warmer?
@bjk031 I don't think so. Unfortunately it is likely to get warmer on our current trajectory. I'm filming the 2C outlook for Maine this week, it should come out next Thursday.
What is happening is that the expansion of the "cold blob" south of Greenland is causing the Gulf Stream on the eastern US to push against the coast and extend north, so I would think that means it is going to warm up on Maine.
I am acquiring as many species of plants/seeds as fast as I possibly can. We are on track to lose 90% of biodiversity. I would be trying to save Threatened and Endangered animals but that's impossible unless you are a Zoo.
@koicaine1230 I think that is admirable. I like collecting seeds. As it became clear we were getting off the models last year, I started learning more about saving seeds. This is my first year planting my garden with seeds I saved from last year- trying to build my skills up around keeping things going.
I wonder if you have heard about this nonprofit?
seedsavers.org/
They don't save every kind of plant- they focus on heritage food plants- but they are wonderful. I buy all my seed from there & the germination rate is always excellent, as is the ability of the plants to truly reproduce- to truly set quality seed for the next generation. Their descriptions about drought resistance, etc, I have always found to be accurate. Tough plants.
@@AmericanResiliency That's awesome! I've never heard of them but I will definitely check them out, seeds can get expensive, fast!
@koicaine1230 I hear you on that lol!
Good content. So loud.