Why Aaron Judge Would Be Better with Robo-Umps
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ธ.ค. 2021
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I really like these types of videos. This and the Derek Jeter presentation video both really feel like they could've been fully fleshed out Baseball Bits, but they just didn't make the cut. The chill, relaxed low-production value of your Foolish Bailey videos doesn't really hurt the effect and the impact of the statistics either. I really like the narrative-driven Baseball Bits for when there's a twist or something betrays expectations, but these videos are fantastic as well and I don't want you to be discouraged on making these if another concept doesn't make the cut.
Good take right here
I think he should just make everything like baseball bits. I don't care how long it takes. If Bailey has to spend 24 hours a day to slave away and spend the rest of his life only communicating to us in baseball bits format that's exactly what I expect. Anything else is a disappoinment. Think about it. If he spent 24 hours a day making baseball bits for the rest of his life we might be able to get a few every week. He could stop sleeping, insert a feeding tube so he doesn't have to eat and just sit in a bedpan so he won't need bathroom breaks. That's what he should do.
another banger comment from famed internet savant machcharge
@@hypetrained Am I famed? Lol I rarely comment but thank you lol
@@RockiesSweden rockies fan always W
"Tall Chads and Short Kings should have solidarity with one another"
Bailey dishing sabermetric stats AND wisdom
Joey from da bronx gonna love this one
RE2PECT
@@bakedtortilla3338 RINGSSSS 💍💍💍💍💍
I’d trade Frazier (RIP) and Andujar for robo-umps
@@jzk0517 RINGZZZZZ*
My name is Joe and I’m not from the Bronx, but I am from NY. Does that count?
New rule per the 2022 CBA: all MLB players must be 6'2" and use the same batting stance to avoid this problem
Me: Yes, give me robo umps to buff Aaron Judge!
Bailey: Atuve is getting screwed too
Me: We should learn to live without the aid of artificial intelligence in fear it may conquer us one day
I thought it was shown that Altuve wasnt even really a beneficiary of the trash cans though
My one fear about having robo umps is that it will take away managers arguing with the real umps which is honestly one of my favorite things about baseball
@@bmac4 Yes, I heard that he REFUSED to use any tricks that told him pitches because he thought cheating was bad.
@@gotgt500 they still have human umps on the field in the leagues using the robo-umps tho, so maybe you don't miss out
Judge ended at -29, Altuve -19, the good outweighs the evil yet you would prefer Angel Hernandez, the devil in disguise. Is this not proof that we should welcome our robot overlords, for they shall save us from ourselves?
To be honest it seems kinda clear in retrospect that humanity jumped the shark, probably actually right around when that episode of Happy Days that the phrase is from came out, and at this point things are getting a bit embarrassing.
some could even go as far as to say Judge is taller than Altuve and Tony Kemp
You're probably right, but I need to see some data to back that up.
I doubt that dude.
@@SadMarinersFan I'm sorry but I don't abide by those liberal "analytics" standards, I have these things called eyes😤😤😤👌🏼
source?
@@FoolishBailey GarySanchezRBW and Bob Nightengale ofc
The other aspect to consider, and I'm not sure how you'd quantify this, is the pitches below the zone that Judge takes swings at because he knows if he doesn't swing it will be called a strike anyway. Not sure how you'd differentiate between him swinging to stay alive vs being fooled though.
It'd be tough. I just looked at it myself and Judge swings at pitches in Bailey's given zone 6.6% of the time - roughly equal to league average. Feel like the only way to know is if you sat down with Judge himself and looked at the film.
Good point, I know for sure Altuve takes a swing at a ton of balls that are super high, but again that's also just bc the dude can get a hit on any pitch so it might be confidence more than protecting
Actually one of the frustrating things about what's being discussed in the video is that Judge actually *doesn't* seem to adjust for it and consistently just accepts the bad calls rather than going outside of his zone and swinging at bad pitches. This is the right thing to do but it makes all the bad calls even more egregious as it should be a known thing by now as well as that Judge has a very good eye, so that they are still doing this to him to this level after all these years is unacceptable.
@@jyjjy7 my guy it’s the MLB these guys are throwing nasty pitches. It’s not that easy is Triple AAA rep ball we talking about the MLB here man
I do believe that if Aaron Judge wants to be a good baseball player he should simply become shorter.
He should get shorter when the pitch is coming in low and taller when it's coming in high
if judge wants to be the highest paid position player in baseball he has to become 6’1 by next year
All else being equal, one would rather be tall when playing baseball than shorter.
Took me too long to realize the music in the background was Christmas Music.
“Last Christmas I gave you my heart...this year I’ll give it to someone special” - accurately describes my gradual increase in viewership to Bailey as compared to other baseball TH-camrs this year
Yeah I was watching the video and at one point was like "...wait is that Last Christmas?" lol. It really distracted me for a bit and I had to rewind a couple minutes haha
Aaron Judge should simply become shorter in order to avoid getting calls below the zone.
Incredible he hasn't thought of this yet
Did you apply for the Yankees Hitting Coach vacancy? 😂
Watch it every game as a Yankees fan. He and Giancarlo get some of the most ridiculous strike calls and then they press and swing at stupid pitches. The low and away strikes are outrageous
Hi Bailey, I'm wondering where you got these pictures of these players I've never heard of before? If I go on the team rosters I don't see any of these people??
I made them all up. It's fiction.
@@FoolishBailey I knew it
@@RogerRabbitShowdown foolish Bailey likes to make his own OC characters. No ones really that tall or short, but it’s a fun idea!
@@jacksonvelez7106 This "Altuve" guy would have to be a dwarf to be that short. Dwarves? I don't believe they exist.
Appreciate the shout out to us red green colorblind folk nobody else ever thinks of us 🙏
This is such a fun video, it’s like a little behind the scenes baseball bits. I would love more in-depth stats like this on players in fleshed out videos, gives me something to be excited to watch during lockout season. THE YEAR OF OHTANI BAYBAY
An edited "quick version" of this video could be a pretty convincing and shareable argument for the whole baseball community.
Good stuff, Bailey.
Yes then they watch this lol
THANK YOU, those calls below his knees are an everyday occurrence. Crazy he has the composure to never get ejected too
Socks and their consequences have been disastrous for home plate umpiring
Lovin' the really chill lo-fi "Last Christmas." sabermetrics + Wham! is such a vibe
But Bailey what if the robot umps take over the world and then start making bad calls like the human umps
Really great video and analysis. An interesting thing I found while digging through more data on Judge and Altuve is the difference in their swing rates. Judge swings at 42% of low pitches and 62.6% of high ones, while Altuve swings at 66.8% of low pitches and 53.3% of high pitches. This is compared to MLB averages of 53.5% and 56.2% for low and high pitches respectively. Judge's swing rates make sense, he hits considerably better on high pitches than low, so he should logically swing at more high pitches to increase his productivity, but Altuve's are perplexing. Altuve has a higher OBP and wOBA on high pitches compared to low pitches, but swings at low pitches ~14% more than high ones. Why is this? Especially with the results shown in the video, Altuve should take more low pitches, since he gets more favorable calls and hits worse there, while increasing his swing rate on high pitches, where he hits better and is less likely to get a called strike if he takes. If anyone has an explanation it would be much appreciated.
Glad you brought up these stats. I imagine he's swinging so much more often at low pitches because many are breaking balls/changeups. I'd be curious to know the whiff rate/barrel on his low vs. high pitches, I imagine it's much better on high.
Interesting!
Wow, stat cast is incredible. I had no idea about all these zones and pulling up actual pitches.
Thank you for the strike zone visuals. I’m not actually a baseball watcher and they really helped me understand what you meant.
Glad you posted cause now I’ll have something to listen to while I’m at work tonight. Kinda podcast-esque
Bailey: if your baseball brain works like mine your next question is...
Me: If there were robo umps would Adam Dunn be in the 500 home run club?
Bailey: Altuve short short.
Me: Oh...
It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between good hitters and called strikes. I feel like it’s possible that umps have an unintentional bias that forces them to give tougher calls against better hitters. Might be a comparison of ops+ or wrc+ vs strikes called outside the zone. Although even if the bias existed it could also be a sample size issue b/c of pitchers being more likely to pitch around good hitters as opposed to going right at worse hitters.
I should probably just go do the comparison myself, but I am very lazy.
Thats exactly what i was thinking. Someone has to make up the bad decisions Judge and Altuve get to get back to League Average, but is this done mostly by good or bad hitters or just random, i don't know and i feel like there could be arguments to both sides. I think it could be very interesting to see if robo-umps would probably the good average sized hitter or bad average sized hitter.
Absolutely. Prime example was Ted Williams. If he didn't swing, the ump would call a ball, if there was any doubt.
@@len9518 Wasn't that story about Hornsby?
@@stefanmaste if you think about it altuve and judge are your regression to the mean for each other. Judge gets more ball calls at the top of the zone and more strikes at the bottom while altuve does the opposite (more strikes at top of zone and more balls at the bottom)
love this vid and the lofi hip hop radio - beats to study/discuss strike zones to
In the area Judge is getting screwed, he also has a relatively low contact %, both in and outside of the zone. The same is true for Altuve at the top of the zone, but with a less severe difference. Altuve would get a boost, but he already makes contact a good rate on pitches outside of the strike zone.
If an accurate robo ump was implemented, Judge would put up numbers that would get him on a terrorist watchlist.
I think some of the best parts of this video isn't the final analysis, but the time spent going over how to use the tools to their best ability and how information found can lead you to look into more stuff. Great stuff as always Bailey!
The Altuve reveal was hilarious, great video
excellent video - love the way you analyze baseball! It's always really interesting, and I'm consistenly impressed with your ability to measure things that I wouldn't think to measure in the game!
Banger soundtrack, banger video. happy holidays Bailey
I would love to see a video showing this with the top 10 tallest and shortest players who meet a plate appearance threshold. Would give us a much larger sample size.
I traveled from Twitter to type this comment….
Well Done! 👌🏽👌🏽
I don’t think the average baseball fan is aware of such an issue and you broke it down with all of the necessary information to 1) making it sound like your not just some Aaron Judge fanboy 2) that you’ve been seeing the same thing happening and have the education and courage to put this information out there!💪🏽
Baseball 10,000% needs StatCast-Umps and I forecast that it’ll start being implemented in the next season or two, with how many EGREGIOUS calls are being dealt out this season.
There is ZERO CHANCE the commissioners and board members don’t see what everyone tweets, posts or comments on.
Well done mate!🔥🔥
As a 5’7 short king myself, we stand with Altuve and Judge in demanding a robo strike zone ✊🏻
So now who are the players getting the most Ump love to offset these players getting the shaft?
Might be relevant to fantasy people who want to know which players stats might regress to the mean.
It’s really interesting that this seems like it’s a very niche stat that only someone like Bailey could think about, but I’m sure nearly every pitcher in the league has thought about this exact topic.
Great background music on this video and very interesting content. Prob the best Foolish Bailey vid yet.
This is a great video. I could listen to you talk about missed strike calls for hours
You could make this same exact video for Giancarlo. The amount of low balls called strikes I’ve seen for these two makes me wanna headbutt my TV everytime.
Last Christmas, I gave you my heart, the very next day, you put out another fire video
I think there's an important distinction to be made here between sensitivity and specificity as far as accuracy metrics go (i.e. which pitches are inaccurately called strikes vs. inaccurately called balls). Anecdotally, I feel like I see more Ump Scorecards where the ump has expanded the strikezone, and less strikes called balls.
2 Bailey vids in 2 days? It IS Christmas!
Great video. That lo fi Last Christmas made me want to claw out my own ear drums though
I really love this channel because it’s the reverse of many “second channels”. In baseball bits you’re more sincere and here you play a more over the top character.
Me, a WWE fan, loving the Jim Ross Mick Foley v Undertaker soundbyte at the start
Great add of Christmas music those little things are always great
Great vid. Would be interesting to see across the league which individual players were most +/- compared to expected in these same top/bottom shadow zones. For instance we can see from this video extreme heights lead to more negative totals as those guys are harder to judge (pun), so their zone weaknesses get attacked relatively more than their strengths. But is there an underlying factor why someone would have a highly positive +/- here, like having a weird stance? If so, to what degree does that help them get calls? Or is it just complete randomness for average-height dudes?
Do you think Altuve gets those high pitches called strikes because he swings at those pitches pretty often? I am amazed how many hits he gets on those high pitches (although this is entirely an anecdotal) - i am pretty sure I have seen him hit homers on pitches well above the strike zone
I'm thinking he realized those pitches would be called strikes and worked his ass off to compensate and become a good high pitch hitter
@@jarryd8167 i thought everyone has a hard time laying off the high pitch. I’ve never seen anyone hit so many pitches above the shoulders as Altuve. I figure he’s mastered it as much as possible.
Random and unrelated to the video, but the subtle jazzy Christmas music was a nice touch, oh and go braves
Today's players are so soft. Back in the good old days, if Pete Rose was 6'7 and getting calls like that, he would've gone to downtown Cincy and found some workers hoisting a grand piano up the side of a building and trash talked them until they dropped the piano on him, squishing him into a more competitive accordion shape.
Love the music in the background
Got distracted by the Muzak version of “Last Christmas” as your talkbed.
about 14 minutes ago, I audibly asked my computer screen "oh yea so what about Altuve then?"
I love the content of this video and it’s something I’ve never really though about, but is there anyway you did a statistical t-test for each one? I would love to see that done and I may even do it myself seeing that you show all data in the video. Just something to see if each zone is significant mathematically through statistical tests.
Judge is going to see this and be like, I knew it!!
He's definitely known this or had someone in his agency I imagine make something like this. But since you are impartial I imagine he will actually see this. It helps his case.
Umpires on all levels should be required to watch this as part of their training.
All I want for Christmas is another baseball bits
I showed this to my uncle Joey and he was really enjoying it until you started defending that cheater Alt*ve. For the last 40 minutes, Uncle Joey has been ranting about how Altuve will never hold a candle to legendary second basemen like Chuck Knoblauch. Thanks a lot, Bailey.
Spending another Christmas in da Bronx?
@@FoolishBailey of course, it ain’t Christmas if it ain’t in da Bronx
Yes! More foolish baseball/bailey. I need my fix. Lest I start reading random players baseball reference pages
The fact that hes batting over .310 despite all the bs strikes thats been called on him just shows how good of a hitter he is.
This is so incredibly nerdy and I love it. 👍
It’s the tax for getting to be 6’7
This is the ASMR of baseball videos.
This is some juicy data. I love giving meaning to the numbers. Awesome video
I do appreciate the christmas lofi
Now that we've done a video on the extreme height players can we get one about the extreme width players
"And if your baseball brain is anything like my baseball brain, you know what's coming next..."
*reveals jose altuve*
*I lose my mind*
as a long time pirates fan id love a breakdown of how many times they would score a run on bases loaded but get strike 3 called instead of ball 4. probably enough times to change the outcome of their games from L's to W's
Judge should just get shorter tbh
If he truly cared about the game he would
an interesting thing to go deeper with is to see how many of those pitches came on a 3-x Count where he would have walked had the call been "accurate" and see how much that would have effected OBP/WR
The Christmas music was a nice touch
May 23, 2022. Orioles @Yankees. Judge had a strike down the middle and was call a ball
The creepy Christmas music in the background makes this seem like this is gonna descend into some kinda weird horror video
Love this format
Okay so watching this 4 months late, but I have to know, is that “Last Christmas” jingling in the background of the second half of the video?!?!
This is one hell of a thumbnail hahaha
TL;DR: lots of extra stupid stats stuff-- both altuve and judge got hosed on calls this year, other hitters that are similar to judge either in approach or both approach and stature did not get hosed as hard.
I think a more apt comparison to judge might be Jose Ramirez-- who has a more similar ISO (conventional wisdom is you pitch power hitters down, no?) and also a similar plate approach (swing% and o-swing% within 1% of judge, whereas altuve's o-swing% is about 6% higher than either) and is 5'9". Ramirez is also established enough in the league that the "book" should be out on him-- pitchers should have established their approach to him.
For reference, Judge is ~6" taller than the average hitter, Altuve is ~7" shorter than the average hitter and Ramirez is ~4" shorter than the average hitter. There's just not a lot of really short dudes that are in the prototypical power hitter camp. (maybe Cedric Mullins is worth looking at too? His discipline profile isn't as close to Judge's as Ramirez's is though.)
Ramirez took 169 pitches low in the zone, and 61 of them were called strikes, for a 36.1% called strike rate, giving him +18 in the bottom. Meanwhile, he took 119 pitches high in the zone and 55 of them were called strikes, for a 46.2% called strike rate, for -3 in the top.
Notably, Altuve swung at about 66.5% of balls in the bottom zone this year, meaning that even though he saw 257 pitches in that zone, he only had an umpire decision on 85 of them. Even still, Altuve sees somewhat less than the average player in this zone-- 10.3% of all pitches. Meanwhile, Judge sees 15.8% of all pitches in this bottom zone (league average is 12.2%). Ramirez saw 12.6% of all his pitches in this zone.
Notably, while I'd guess that conventional wisdom says to pitch power hitters down, and Ramirez did see more pitches down than Altuve, his profile isn't NEARLY as warped as Judge's. Even Giancarlo Stanton-- who is only an inch shorter than Judge, sees approximately a league average amount of pitches in that part of the plate (Stanton took 158 pitches and had 99 called strikes for a -25 in the bottom on the season, not as extreme as Judge, but very noticeable. He also got more back in the top of the zone, 10 strike calls for 73 takes, for a +22 in the top of the zone). I think Stanton is a very interesting case because he's absolutely getting hosed on calls in the bottom but is making it back in the top.
One last interesting weird tidbit: Judge actually suffered less than Altuve on bad calls this season, but both had a bad time. The league average rate for bad calls is about 0.825% more bad strikes than bad balls. Judge had a -50 on overall bad calls for the year with an expectation of -24 on bad calls, so he had a -26 BCAA (bad calls against average). Altuve had -54 on bad calls, and only -21 on expected bad calls, so Altuve had a -33 BCAA. Ramirez had a 0 BCAA and Stanton actually had a +9 BCAA. (these were pulled off of balls on strikes in gameday zone and called strikes on balls out of gameday zone).
boy this comment went places. would love to do some analysis on height vs average MLB and getting hosed on bad calls-- but no one has player height indexed in an easy to use way.
also bailey fun fact if you click on the numbers/letters instead of the checkbox in the statcast search tool it doesn't close the current box which makes it way easier to click on a bunch of different zones.
This is really interesting. Would the hight of the ump vs hight of the batter also have a similar effect?
Now I’m interested at the opposite end of the spectrum. Which hitters get the most ball/strike calls going their way at the bottom and top of the zones and is there any correlation between a player’s deviation from league average height and how many calls they get? The average position player is just under 6’1, so it would be interesting to see how umpires call strikes on a batter like Juan Soto as compared to Judge and Altuve
Great video man
bruh this t swift in the background is boppin
I always wonder if, as players get better does the plate change for them. Similar to how good pitchers get a smaller plate do great batters great a larger or smaller plate.
What about swing strikes. Take those off that percentage. Pitch that the ump called. Did you add that in?
If the pitch location circle is a solid circle, it means an automated strikezone saw it as a strike
I am so geeked out with this. 😂 😂
I think you’re right to surmise that unusually short players and unusually tall hitters get height~biased umpiring as though their were at a more average height.
However, testing this hypothesis would necessitate a regression of height to strike call rate for each of these zones.
Most interesting to my mind would be to analyze all extreme outliers, and figure out how much height is involved and what other factors may sometimes play in.
With regard to these two hitters, it would be important to compare their called strike rate for borderline pitcher on both the outside and inside edges of the plate to these zones you’ve analyzed, to confirm that height appears to be a factor for them.
Finally, since you’ve brought up biased umpiring for Ohtani as both a pitcher and a hitter, it would be interesting to explore why this may be the case for him, and whether the same phenomenon can be found for other players in similar contexts or with similar characteristics.
Thanks Foolish!
🌳🐾
I haven’t seen this video! Great job! I’m a big Yankee but also a huge baseball fan and I love stat cast data! I know back in 2017 he was getting the most balls called strikes. I don’t want a ump that consistently calls low pitches. I don’t think ML pitchers want to pitch up in the zone against Judge. MLB pitchers are more dominant than ever. We had a lot of no hitters. If we had the robo-umps the game would have better offense. I like when hitters bat .300 and higher. A .300 batting average is great nowadays. Very few people hitting .300
Does the on screen broadcast strike zone change for each player?
It does for sure on YES network
Yes.
I feel the true issue with robo umps is going to be a bit more extreme then people truly realize. (Mind you I haven't checked in on how it's gone in the...league that gave it go)
But realistically a ball simply has to cross ANY portion of the plate to be a strike, there's nothing stating it has to be "this % of the ball in the zone for it to be ruled a strike" it simply has to touch it somewhere in the zone. The rule states "It must cross over the plate somewhere in the aforementioned zone to be a strike"
So theoretically a high breaking ball could cross through the zone but be catching the back or top of the zone as it breaks down as the plate isn't just a 2D plane (that likely won't be common) but still will occur.
I personally think a form of robo umps would likely help pitchers more than it helps hitters. Strikes become precise and a more likelihood of them having a BIGGER zone to protect than with actual umpires. Yeah catchers stole calls and umps all have different zones. This one would be consistent but new and potentially bigger
Can we all just respect the lofi version of Last Christmas playing in the background hahaha
12:06 Even the overlay doesn't make any sense. The top of the zone is at his belt???????
Great video!
It'd be interesting to see the numbers if Judges and Altuves strikezones are replaced with the league average; see if there is a difference in the calls at all
I haven't even watched a second and one of fav videos ever
I’d be curious to see if there was stat tracking the amount of calls a left handed hitter gets stolen on an outside pitch compared to right handed hitters. Just from personal experience and watching games, left handed hitters tend to get hosed on outside pitches more than right handed hitters.
There must be players who benefit from this. I'm curious how a walk machine like Soto compares to the league average. Also, do you think there is a similar effect for guys that crowd the plate etc.
I'm skeptical of comparing percentages from a region that spans both in and out of the strike zone. Like, at least part of the reason Aaron Judge gets a higher percentage of called strikes in that low region could be that a larger percentage of the pitches in that region he takes are in the top of that region (where they are in the strike zone).
I was thinking the same thing. All this video technically proved was that there is indeed a difference in called strike %, but it doesn't prove why it happens. There are 2 possible explanations: 1) he really does get a higher % of strikes thrown in the strike side of the low area, or 2) he's getting a higher percentage of bad calls. I wish he would have done an analysis on "bad call %" to prove that he does actually get more bad calls compared to league average.
The video I didn’t know I needed
Best foolish Bailey video ever made
Next time, when dealing with multi-year pitch numbers, just use the pitch frequency numbers when finding call rates to help yourself out! Love the analytical sports nerd videos!
This is an excellent analysis. Please send to Aaron Judge