Knowing When to Sell a Stock: 15 Real-Life Examples to Guide Your Decision | FAST Graphs
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 มิ.ย. 2024
- When to Sell a Stock
One of the most common complaints I hear from investors is that their advisors or brokers like to tell them when to buy, but never tell them when to sell. Whether those criticisms are fair or not, the sell decision is certainly the most vexing decision that investors face. Nevertheless, there are several clichés that people often turn to help with this puzzling decision.
Legendary investor Peter Lynch in his best-selling book “One Up On Wall Street” said it like this: “Just because you buy a stock and it goes up does not mean you are right. Just because you buy a stock, and it goes down does not mean you are wrong.” The point is that a rising stock may be dangerously overvalued, while the falling stock price may indicate that the company is becoming a rare opportunity on sale. Understanding this comes down to realizing, without questioning, that the market is not always right nor is it always efficient. On the other hand, it would be more correct and accurate to say that the market, although not always efficient, is always seeking efficiency.
Over the years I have learned that the price of the stock will inevitably align itself with the intrinsic value of the business. Unfortunately, the timing of that occurrence is unpredictable. Sometimes, the movement back to intrinsic value (up or down) can be very swift, at other times the valuation anomaly can continue for a tortuously long time. Therefore, you simply cannot predict how high is up or how low is down. On the other hand, you can recognize too high and too low when you see it. Once that is accomplished, you can make a rational long-term decision.
Furthermore, the prudent intelligent value investor also understands that all investments, especially investments in common stocks, derive their value from the amount of cash they provide their stakeholder.
So How Do You Know When To Sell A Tech Stock?
As I established above, the honest and the correct answer is you simply cannot answer this question with perfect precision. Instead, all you can practically expect to do is make a prudent or a rational decision. Investing is not a game of perfect. Sometimes you can sell a little early, sometimes you can sell very early. In other times you can wait too long to sell and lose big as a result. Nevertheless, they do not ring a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Therefore, for sanity’s sake you must accept that you can only make rational and intelligent sell decisions. In many ways, the same can be said about the buy decision. However, in truth and fact, the buy decision is a little more straightforward.
Apply Prudent and Sensible Strategies Instead
Instead of distressing over trying to make a perfect sell decision, try applying rational strategies instead. For example, you can place an overvalued stock on a “sell watch list” like I often do. This does not mean I immediately sell, instead, it means that I am cognizant of my risk and prepared to sell quickly if the situation warrants. However, the point is, since I know I am in dangerous territory, I watch my overvalued stocks more closely than the ones I hold at sound valuation. In other words, I am willing to ride out some volatility when I have attractive value. On the other hand, when I have “false profits” I try not to let the windfall simply dissipate into thin air. To add another cliché, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”
Additionally, once I place a stock on my “sell watch list” I simultaneously begin looking for suitable replacements at more attractive valuations. This can help combat seller’s remorse when I believe I can keep my money working with less risk and hopefully better long-term return potential.
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Time Codes
0:00 - Nvidia Corp (NVDA)
0:56 - Introduction by Chuck Carnevale
2:42- General Electric (GE)
4:10 - Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
4:52 - Devon Energy Corp (DVN)
5:22 - Mosaic Co (MOS)
5:59 - PG&E Corp (PCG)
6:52 - Change Investment Amount In FAST Graphs Under Settings
7:53 - Tesla (TSLA)
10:45 - Adobe Inc (ADBE)
12:30 - Netflix Inc (NFLX)
13:17 - Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
15:47 - Ameriprise Financial (AMP)
17:30 - PNC Financial Services Group (PNC)
17:45 - Ameriprise Financial (AMP)
19:34 - UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
20:00 - Centene Corp (CNC)
20:51 - UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
24:50 - Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
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Merry Christmas to you and yours Mr. Valuation! Always had great interactions either through the office or from content. Appreciate you all. Take a minute to enjoy the view. Providing quality and value isn’t easy, you guys have.
Great video Chuck! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours. Thanks for all the wisdom and insight you provide us.
Merry Christmas to you too Chuck. Thanks for continuing your support of FAST and your outstanding advice over the years.
Merry Christmas to you and your family, Mr. Valuation ! And thanks a lot for doing all these videos for us!
Another great lesson. I’d asked for this topic recently and am grateful for your covering it. I have two stocks that I received in spin offs and didn’t know what to do with them. WBD and another I don’t recall the ticker. Anyway, they don’t pay dividends, have lost more than 50% of their value, don’t fit my criteria for income earners, but don’t represent more than 1% of my portfolio. I’m strongly considering harvesting the losses to off set some dividends. Thanks again. Happy holidays.
Thank you for doing this after I made the request previously! I believe I speak for many viewers when I say I am grateful to have your mentoring and guidance. Have a wonderful Christmas and New Year to you. Have a well-deserved break from TH-cam. See you in 2023.
Thanks Chuck. As an Idea for a video: Can you look at VFC in FUN Graphs and let us look over your shoulder when determining whether one might sell this stock . Seeing your general process when assessing a stock with fun graphs would be very interesting to me. So far I only have a basic subscription of FAST Graphs as I'm fairly new to investing....
Interesting video. You mentioned selling when the fundamentals changed. How often should you be looking at this? If you own 40 stocks, it seems like a full time gig.
Thank you, Chuck for this and all the work you put into these videos. Happy Christmas and hopefully a prosperous and healthy 2023!
Tesla is always just one of those fan favorites and will continue to be I believe. Nice video. Thanks for your time Chuck
I have learned a lot from you. Thank you for these videos
So thankful for this content! Your contents are so insightful, it truly helps a naive investor like me.I am learning so much from you! Thank you so much for all you do, Mr. Chuck!
Excellent video Chuck!
Merry Xmas Mr Valuation! Big thank you for your great channel and passion. best finance content on youtube!
I always look forward to your videos, as each one is a learning experience. Your FastGraph tool has been gift for the retail investor that just keeps on giving. This was another great video. Since I have a hard time trying to determine when a stock is over-priced (10% or 20% or 30% over the orange/blue earnings line), my approach has been to simply sell 10-25% of the equity to lock in some gains and "wait and see" for the remainder. Not sure if this is the best approach, but it seems to split the difference between an "all or none" decision.
Great video as always Uncle Chuck. Happy holidays to you and yours and looking forward to what you have in store for us in 2023.
Hey Chuck! Nice Shirt! Merry Christmas from Down Under. This video is one I have come to need but not asked for. Thank heavens for commenters/subscribers with more testicular fortitude. Would you ever sell a stock where the S&P Credit Rating fell dramatically e.g. B or lower. I heard the economist Mohamed El-Erian speak of this recently as something to consider before buying a stock but have noticed that yours is one of the few tools where you highlight this feature. Stay safe in the silly season my learned friend! Cheers!
Merry Christmas Chuck! Looking forward to new FG enhancements in 2023 and lots more Mr Valuation FG videos
You're content is awesome. Thank you for sharing with all of us.
Great video. I've learned so much. Thank you Chuch and I wish you happy holidays.
Always enjoy your videos Chuck. I've never really understood the importance of tracking yield on cost. I understand the concept, but don't really see how it's useful in terms of making investment decisions. The current yield and historical dividend growth rate seem more useful in this regard.
Thanks for this content and happy holidays!
Hi Chuck. What an investing tool ! What about european stocks (with international exposure)? GTT, Air Liquide, Rubis, Total Energies, Shell, BP, Holland Colours, Ibersol, Schneider Electric, Basic Fit, Roche Bobois, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, Hermes, L’Oréal, Sanofi, LVMH, Kering, Eiffage, Saint-Gobain, Vinci, Sopra Steria, ID logistic, Essilor Luxoticca, Christian Dior, Sanlorenzo Yatchs, Orange, Danone, Sanofi, Air Liquide, Patrimoine et commerce, BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, NN Group, JM AB, Nexity, Bassac, Allianz, Castellum, Snap-on, Bayer, Siemens, Unilever, Arkema, BASF and many many more … Money does have frontiers
Samsung! 📈 Unilever & OATLY
How about you subscribe to his software and analysed them in your own you freaking free loader clown.
we are testing international currently. We hope to launch in late January.
Ça sent le PEA ^^
You listed Air Liquide twice. It must be really good.
Chuck, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and family
Thank you for a great video.
Damn amazing 👍🙌⚡️👏nobody gives it’s straight like the goat 🐐 Mr. Valuation 👍
In my country you have to pay 27,5% TAX on your capital gains if you sell. So I am not sure if the strategy of switching from a low Yield to an higher Yield of a compareable company is for every TAX situation.
Thank you
Doing nothing is the hardest thing to do!
Merry Christmas.
Great video! Happy Hollyday s!
Great video Chuck :)
Merry Christmas to you too
Amazing video Chuck. Cheers
thanks- great video- useful to talk to my wife about when to sell and when not to..! merry christmas- thx for all you do!
Would like a live video showing us at the end of the week how you go through your portofolio and thought process: Hold, Sell, Buy more ... Or Watchlist: This is close to a buy point etc...
Thank you Chuck. Very helpful video. Happy user of FG. Could you pls add to your future list: PSTG, FOUR & INTC. 13ish years ago INTC was a nice div growth stock but looking at your performance screen...ouch. That would be one to sell at times also.
Thank you Chuck. You are the real Santa, for offering so much great information.
I may reach the symbolic 1M net worth in 2023, aged 40, depending on what my stocks do. And that's mostly thanks to you.
THANK YOU from the deepest of my Heart.
One suggestion that could make FAST Graphs an even sharper tool : have a FAST Graph available for each reference ETF of the 11 GICS sectors. Over the years I've realized that the best way to find undervalued stocks is to pick them in sectors that are currently out of favor.
I was buying Defense and Pharma in 2020 and 2021 😆
Thank you again Sir Valuation (Sir, not Mister). Have a beautiful Christmas and keep smashing in 2023 !
We are looking into adding ETF data for the reason you suggested. However, our 1st priority is international stocks followed by stronger portfolio section.
Happy holidays Chuck! 🎉 As for selling stocks that are overvalued I personnaly prefer to sell a portion for rebalancing purpose and reinvest the proceed in undervalued stocks. I have a hard time considering selling completely shares of a high quality company.
Merry Christmas, Chuck!
I read Phil Town’s book Rule 1 and wondered what you think about how useful/valid are technical signals to a retail value investor when deciding when to enter/exit a position?
Thank you Chuck, Merry Christmas. What about a video of undervalue known stocks for 2023, Alphabet, Magna, Skyworks,.... as follow up
PGE crashed because of the fires that happened in California when people were killed, it it was their fault. Sad sll around. I'm so glad for your topic/video. I've occasionally sold the last couple years and it was for the reasons you mentioned and likely dividend was cut due to decline in fundamentals. BBBY, KSS, WFC. Others the evaluation was so high (because of circumstances causing dramatic rspid increase in price) I thought I would sell and buy it back if it dropped to a fair evaluation. PFE in pandemic. SQ last year.
Merry Christmas Chuck. I recently sold KO due to overvaluation.
Please include Jackson financial in one of your videos. Thank you for all you do
Chuck, I bought Dominion Resources (D) back in October 2003 and let the dividends grow my portfolio. Given their recent announcement, I have started to wonder should I sell. If you have no other request for an analysis I'd appreciate it if you covered D for me.
Great subject today, which is the reason I brought up my question. I'd have much more money if I sold just a few months ago. Thanks!
Oops nevermind.
I looked at the short film on D. I hadn't seen it (not a fan of shorts) given the information that you provide!! Again, thanks.
Perfect video, but how do you see GOOGL or AMAZN or META? I like GOOGL and META but they have 1-2 bad years aswell. how to tell if they continue be SHIT ?
Great insights as always 'Santa' Chuck, thanks very much for your dedication delivering high-quality content, I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the next installment. FASTgraphs has been the best investment I've made in quite a while. Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year!
Please check COHR graph. I find it very attractive at the moment
I'd like to hear more about earnings estimate revisions. How to track them. The significance of upgrades and downgrades. And how to see these trends in FASTgraphs.
for starters, earnings estimates and revisions are provided by our data provider FACTSET and they will vary from company to company as can be seen in the analysts scorecard which is provided by FAST Graphs. Finally, as I have stated numerous times, analyst estimates are great starting point because they represent the current thinking of the theoretically leading professionals following the stock in question. Nevertheless, they should never be relied upon blindly. This is also why are tool provides the custom calculator which allows the subscriber to input their own estimate data. Hope that helps, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs I agree. A good starting point. I was commenting mainly on changes to earnings estimates. When estimates change, it's a sign that something significant has happened behind the scenes. For better or worse.
Hi Chuck, high value video as always. What about Leisure Vehicles stocks MBUU Malibu Boats, and PII Polaris . According to Fastgraph charts these stocks seems quite undervalued and with good forecast data.
Hi Chuck :) Would you still consider Devon Energies fundamentals deteriorating? Had my eye on this one.
Good morning Chuck would you mind to take a look at CUBE? Whats your opinion? Thank you
Thank you Chuck!
And Merry Christmas
Hope can do Rollins, LVMH, NORTHROP GRUMMAN have a nice Time
I don't know this is related to Fastgraohs but I would love your thoughts on when and if to include bonds in a portfolio, especially with rising rates. I'm considering it now for cash I have set aside for a future purpose, not necessarily my retirement portfolio. It's new to me. Thx.
I have no objection to bonds when interest rates are reasonable. However, because of such low rates I have avoided them for a long time. On the other hand as interest rates are rising bonds ( fixed income in general) may again become practical and prudent.
I would have preferred if you has used the forecast feature instead of the history feature. For me when the normal forecast shows a negative return it is time to sell.
Hey Chuck, Great video. Would you say a good rule of thumb to sell/trim overvaluation being a price thats above both orange and blue forecasted earnings for the next 3 years.
I flag a company for sale or trim once it is more than 2 years ahead. However, I don't immediately sell. Instead, I watch the stock carefully.If you follow the links I provided you will find articles I’ve written that cover this. Bottom line, I think the real point is that every time you are making a decision you expose yourself to both a mistake as well is an improvement. That’s why I like the old cliché “a portfolio is like a bar soap the more you handle it the smaller it gets.” Like I said, the hardest decision we face is the sell decision.
I have made a lot of money in the past few years, in fact passive income is no longer an issue, the huge problem is how i loose this money from foolish diversification, this January I have already blown my account of a million dollars investing wrongly, last year i lost a total of six million dollars from very bad diversification, I believe i will loose all my wealth and not be able to build anything from my passive income,,, I need serious help immediately I cant continue like this...really needed to voice this out here.
Really, I must say that I'm sorry for your losses, but they are not the end of the world; last year, I suffered a significant loss as well. A portion of my investments were in a pharmaceutical company, whose shares dropped at the beginning of the year amid worries that the company's drug would not be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. As a result of all these losses, I stopped doing research and diversifying my portfolio; Admitting that I don't have the necessary skills, I found an FA who helped me enhance my portfolio once more, and it has been doing well ever since. I recovered my losses, and as of this January, in addition to my losses from the previous year, I have made an additional million dollar. Annette Michelle Walters search on line and explain your issues to her. She'll probably have a solution, I believe.
@@aaravsamardh7089 Alright, here she is.
Her credentials and resume are outstanding.
I appreciate you and I'll be in touch straight away.
I also purchased an energy technology solution with the expectation that it would perform well, but instead it has been the poorest performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. I am so appreciative that you took the time to share your experience with me.
hey chuck the kids call that mooning lol.
Hello Chuck. Can you look into the Chinese ETFS that might be good to buy since they will be reopening again.
sorry we don't follow ETFs. However, if you know the constituents you can evaluate them once we launch international data, hopefully sometime in the 1st quarter of this year. 2023 that is, happy new year.
Hi Chuck, do you track ROCE on the stocks?
yes its a premium feature
a chuck livestream? that will be hilarious to watch!
hey, your holiday promo code doesnt work!
Low key makes me wanna sell my apple shares valuation kinda crazy.
Hi Chuck,
today i find a very Interesting Stock in my View take the Ticker CE(Celanese)would be great to see a Video about them.They just bought for 11 Billions a decent amount from Dow Buisness.Seems a pretty good Value Stock what i see so far!
CE is semi-cyclical, but I do like the company at current levels.
@@FASTgraphs true,but after Europe have So high Gas prices,i believe thats also American Chemie will get more new work that had made the last years in Europe,but its now not Rentable anymore in Europe.That will boost American Chemie Companys im pretty sure.
Here is question that if we are planning on retiring on dividends then why would we sell those stocks ?
you shouldn't unless youu find a better alternative with a higher yield. However, that is hard to do.
I have about 160 000$ worth of NVDA stock with a 165$ cost average, the price is currently at 160.85$ so I'm obviously at a loss. Do you think my current cost average is still significantly overpriced?
Do you sell calls on your shares
@@galiciadabest No, I've never bought options, just individual stocks.
@@Bl4ckDoT_ i dont buy options either. But you can sell options on your shares to get more value from them. I have 100 nvidia shares at 195 and sell calls to reduce my cost basis
It is way over valued
@@dougborgeson1356 what do you think about intel
Well I'm starting a short position against Nvidia so I hope it crashes back to fundamentals before too long haha
It is BS to say never sell a stock. Your stocks will be sold when you die, and that might be a market bottom.
So choose when to sell.
Your analysis is so flawed in many ways. That's how warren buffet missed the tech train. Yet it is not flawed. you need to consider the stage of development for the company. and revenue growth. Your tesla is growing revenue 40% annually what does analyst consensus at 27% longer term mean? You can't average it that way. it is 40% maybe next year 50%, next year maybe 35%, 30% 25% so on and long term the revenue growth will be 7%, the size of inflation compounded with population growth. By your logic amazon was always a sell.
everything you are talking about is considered respectfully you don't understand the analysis and. I have 50+ years experience telling me my analysis is not flawed
Cherry picking, "let's say we invested just after the GFC" WELL NO SHI-! Your gonna do well.
Please do not cut the pauzes between your sentences. There is nothing to it its just annoying. Take this as a friendly feedback
PRUDENT. WISE