I want to thank everyone that view this article and expressed comments. It seems that a common question many have is: when do I sell? Frankly, this is 1 of the most difficult questions to answer because there is no simple answer or one-size-fits-all answer. For example, in the case of these portfolios the primary focus is on a certain level of dividend income followed by the income increasing each year. Consequently, capital appreciation or loss takes a backseat of sorts to the more important consideration of income. The primary companies in question as it relates to this video are Lockheed Martin and ELEVANCE HEALTH (previously Anthem). Although I do consider both too high to initiate a new investment in, the decision as to whether to sell or hold is less straightforward. The dividend income record of both, and perhaps more importantly the growth of dividends past, present, and future are noteworthy. As a result, I feel that as the old cliché or adage goes “one in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.” On the other hand, if the investor’s goal was capital appreciation and/or capital preservation and perhaps with a shorter time focus a sell decision might be appropriate. What follows are select excerpts from articles I have written in the past on the subject of when to sell a stock. To set the stage I want to predicate the following dialogue with the principal that there is a difference between a sell decision, a hold decision, and a buy decision. For example, the company may not be investable at these levels, but at the same time it would still qualify as a long-term hold. I often point out that great investors and great mountain climbers share a common understanding. They both recognize that the only way to get to the higher peaks is to be willing to traverse the occasional valleys that come along the way. In the context of the dividend growth portfolio, valleys rarely occur with the dividend, only with the price. Here are some excerpts as promised starting with a few clichés: “One of my favorites is “do not pick the flowers and water the weeds.” Or another good one “let your winners run.” Although there is an element of wisdom, even profound wisdom within those clichés, they do present challenges. For example, how can you recognize the winner from the loser in advance? The same goes for distinguishing between a flower and a weed. With stock investing, most people consider a rising stock a flower, and a falling stock a weed. However, quite often it turns out to be just the opposite.” “Legendary investor Peter Lynch in his best-selling book “One Up On Wall Street” said it like this: “Just because you buy a stock and it goes up does not mean you are right. Just because you buy a stock, and it goes down does not mean you are wrong.” The point is that a rising stock may be dangerously overvalued, while the falling stock price may indicate that the company is becoming a rare opportunity on sale. Understanding this comes down to realizing, without questioning, that the market is not always right nor is it always efficient. On the other hand, it would be more correct and accurate to say that the market, although not always efficient, is always seeking efficiency.” That last statement is why I rely on valuation so much. Over the years I have learned that the price of the stock will inevitably align itself with the intrinsic value of the business. Unfortunately, the timing of that occurrence is unpredictable. Sometimes, the movement back to intrinsic value (up or down) can be very swift, at other times the valuation anomaly can continue for a tortuously long time. Therefore, you simply cannot predict how high is up or how low is down. On the other hand, you can recognize too high and too low when you see it. Once that is accomplished, you can make a rational long-term decision. And more importantly, if you give that decision time to work itself out, it will also be a profitable decision. That last statement is why I rely on valuation so much. Over the years I have learned that the price of the stock will inevitably align itself with the intrinsic value of the business. Unfortunately, the timing of that occurrence is unpredictable. Sometimes, the movement back to intrinsic value (up or down) can be very swift, at other times the valuation anomaly can continue for a tortuously long time. Therefore, you simply cannot predict how high is up or how low is down. On the other hand, you can recognize too high and too low when you see it. Once that is accomplished, you can make a rational long-term decision. And more importantly, if you give that decision time to work itself out, it will also be a profitable decision. Furthermore, the prudent intelligent value investor also understands that all investments, especially investments in common stocks, derive their value from the amount of cash they provide their stakeholder. Therefore, many investors support discounted cash flow analysis as a sound approach to assessing valuation. However, without getting too technical, you are simply attempting to determine if the business can generate enough cash to compensate you for the risk and provide you an adequate return. “So How Do You Know When To Sell A Tech Stock? As I established above, the honest and the correct answer is you simply cannot answer this question with perfect precision. Instead, all you can practically expect to do is make a prudent or a rational decision. Investing is not a game of perfect. Sometimes you can sell a little early, sometimes you can sell very early. In other times you can wait too long to sell and lose big as a result. Nevertheless, they do not ring a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Therefore, for sanity’s sake you must accept that you can only make rational and intelligent sell decisions. In many ways, the same can be said about the buy decision. However, in truth and fact, the buy decision is a little more straightforward. Apply Prudent and Sensible Strategies Instead Instead of distressing over trying to make a perfect sell decision, try applying rational strategies instead. For example, you can place an overvalued stock on a “sell watch list” like I often do. This does not mean I immediately sell, instead, it means that I am cognizant of my risk and prepared to sell quickly if the situation warrants. However, the point is, since I know I am in dangerous territory, I watch my overvalued stocks more closely than the ones I hold at sound valuation. In other words, I am willing to ride out some volatility when I have attractive value. On the other hand, when I have “false profits” I try not to let the windfall simply dissipate into thin air. To add another cliché, “a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.” Additionally, once I place a stock on my “sell watch list” I simultaneously begin looking for suitable replacements at more attractive valuations. This can help combat seller’s remorse when I believe I can keep my money working with less risk and hopefully better long-term return potential. Therefore, short-term volatility like if the stock I sell continues to go up, it does not bother me as much as it would if I were only holding cash. Another strategy I often implement is partial selling or trimming. I especially like doing this when I can take a substantial profit above my original investment and therefore only take risk with house money. I am currently implementing this strategy with Microchip Technology Inc. I have been long this semiconductor company since September 2010 with a cost basis of $31 per share and change. I recently sold half my position where I more than doubled my original investment. Potential More Attractively Valued Replacements As I stated above, a strategy that makes the sell decision easier is when a suitable but better valued replacement is discovered. Summary and Conclusions If you realize and accept the reality that you cannot make perfect sell - or buy decisions for that matter, the decision becomes a lot less stressful and confusing. You simply do the best you can, you make your decisions based on rational assessments of valuation and you move forward. The prudent value investor confidently makes sound and prudent investing decisions and does so without stress or remorse. In the long run, value investing pays handsomely. You simply must exercise what I call intelligent patience and trust fundamentals over stock price. Investing is not a game of perfect, but it is a rational pursuit if engaged in properly.” I apologize for the long reply, however, as stated there is no simple or straightforward answer. I believe each investor must make those decisions based on their own goals, objectives, risk tolerances, and emotional makeup. Hope this helps. Chuck
These lookbacks are great lessons in how a value/growth portfolio behaves. Rock solid, not flashy. Thanks for the proof that you can find excellent individual stocks even if the overall market is overvalued.
Chuck - Thank you for doing these portfolio reviews from 2021. I remember looking at those and modelled mine last year and I am glad I did, You are simply the best and I am very happy with Fast graphs.
Thanks for another great video! I actually liquidated my GD position and trimmed LMT. Both are overvalued presumably related to the war in Eastern Europe.
YOU ARE INCREDIBLE The S&P 500 is DOWN over that time. Many high-quality dividend ETFs are DOWN over that time. You're up TWENTY PERCENT. You should have a show on every TV channel at 8 PM every night. Where would America be if everyone had to learn from you? I've said it before: you're a national treasure!
I sold out of my CAH, FMC & CI. Still holding AMGN, LMT & UGI. I sold to get capital and take advantage of quality companies dropping to bargain prices.
From this video, I think only Raymond James and Whirlpool Corp look very attractive as they are either somewhat predictable in their earnings and earnings-price-relationship or undervalued and thus worth a special look. But I also know that Chuck would only include high quality companies in this video so the others would become attractive if they experienced drops in price.
Chuck. How do you handle the following. in your personal portfolio Say you have a large position in the stock of a good business, but FASTgraphs shows the business as significantly overvalued. Would tend to sell (and either take capital gains or to offset with losers), or do you hold and just let time take its course. I'm thinking of something like buuyng UNH back in say 2010 when it was undervalued, where now it is showing significant overvaluation
here is how I handled a similar question: "I have my own rule, and you can develop yours for yourself. What I do is once a stock rises to the point where it is more than 2 years ahead of fair value based on the forecasting calculators, I flag it as a potential sell. Once on my sell watch list I keep my eye on it but I do not necessarily sell it immediately. However, simultaneously I am looking for a suitable replacement but at a much better valuation. Then if I find it compelling opportunity I can sell the overvalued stock and by the replacement. Nevertheless, I caution that a portfolio is like a bar soap the more you handle it the smaller it gets. Or another old diddy "be careful that you do not pull the flowers and water the weeds.?" Finally, once I make a decision I never look back I am always only looking forward. Regards, Chuck" regarding UNH specifically, I would still consider it a long-term hold, I agree is overvalued but I do not think dangerously so. In this case "one in the hand is better than 2 in the bush." however you need to follow your own mind. Hope this helps, regards Chuck
@davidcompton5468 @dev2594 This is Polly from support@fastgraphs.com - here are two links on selling Chuck produced in the past: fastgraphs.com/blog/answering-the-important-questions-when-to-buy-or-when-to-sell-a-stock-part-1/ fastgraphs.com/blog/the-worst-reasons-to-sell-a-stock/
Great inspiration! My US DG-portfolio is for the long term (+20 years) so focused on dividend growth and quality but combined with some ok yeilding stocks to keep cashflow incomming to re-invest in volatile times: CMCSA, AOS, APD, CE, TROW, C, SPGI, V, ZTS, MU.
When do you decide to sell a winning position, when the upside of another stock is better and held for longer than a year to qualify for long term gains?
I have my own rule, and you can develop yours for yourself. What I do is once a stock rises to the point where it is more than 2 years ahead of fair value based on the forecasting calculators, I flag it as a potential sell. Once on my sell watch list I keep my eye on it but I do not necessarily sell it immediately. However, simultaneously I am looking for a suitable replacement but at a much better valuation. Then if I find it compelling opportunity I can sell the overvalued stock and by the replacement. Nevertheless, I caution that a portfolio is like a bar soap the more you handle it the smaller it gets. Or another old diddy "be careful that you do not pull the flowers and water the weeds.?" Finally, once I make a decision I never look back I am always only looking forward. Regards, Chuck
I bought LMT at $326 a year ago and it's up $150 per share. I hadn't planned on selling but after seeing your chart, it makes me wonder if maybe it wouldn't be a good idea considering it's cyclicality.
Chuck appreciates all your educational video. I am a much more confident investor using your fantastic investment tool of Fast Graphs. I try to be a long-term investor, but it is not always easy. Considering the litigation blue chip MMM is going through, I sold my position today for end of the year tax loss harvesting. I would be interested in your views on MMM in a possible future video.
Great video, chuck. Regarding overvalued stocks such at ELV and LMT would you consider closing those positions to find better options elsewhere? For instance to redirect profits from ELV and LMT into positions that are still undervalued. Hope to hear your advice on the selling aspect of stocks. You have covered amply on the when to buy, which is when stocks are under valued. How about the when to sell? Cheers and happy holidays.
Hi Chuck, thanks for another great video. I've got a question about Fastgraphs and can't find the answer in the help section: what does an exclamation mark in a black or red triangle mean next to the 'change/ year' percentage in the Forecasting Calculator? For instance in the Forecasting Calculator for Borgwarner inc (BWA).; there is an exclamation mark left to the number 50,36%. How do I interpretet that number? Has it something to do with an incorrect analyst scorecard?
@dutchcourage433 We place a warning flag when a growth rate is abnormal and inconsistent with either historical norms or a rational expectation of the future. All FAST Graphs is doing is alerting you to an anomalous number in the calculations. Polly from support@fastgraphs.com
I more often look your videos. You used to talk about Stainley Black and Decker a lot - before the share fell that much. Why do'n't you talk about them now, they are much cheaper now. Is the outlook that bad now?
Big fan Chuck, if you find it solid could you do another dive in on BX Blackstone? i like the company but a lot of headwinds at the moment with their briet with the current interest rate environment. Thanks!
Here's a response I gave to another viewer with the same question: "AG, sorry but the only thing you're missing is a clear explanation from me of what those columns represent. The 1st column titled "original income" was simply a calculation of the yield on cost. So to do the math if you multiply the yield on cost by the amount invested note: the actual amount is $49,906.56 however, in the table in the video I rounded that the 50,000 just for simplicity. Nevertheless multiply the actual amount by the current yield of the stock on the date the portfolio was created 4.22% you would get $2106.06. That number would be the annualized yield based on the dividend and the current yield being expressed on that date. In contrast the current income column was taken from the historical FAST Graph calculator over the timeframe August 24, 2001 through the current date. That amount of income is not an annualized number. Instead, it is the amount of income that was earned since the portfolio was purchased on the timeframe and the amount invested in the stock.. To summarize the original income column represented a number that would've been earned if the portfolio was held for one year, which of course it was not. It was only help from August 24 or roughly 4 months. It was wrong on my part to title it original income, it should have been called annualized income. Likewise, the current income column is not annual income but it is income that the current yield on cost would be generating. The actual amount of current income received since August 24, 2021 does accurately represent what has been received thus far. But once again it is not an annual number. I apologize I need to explain that better. Hope that clarifies it, Chuck"
@@FASTgraphs Thanks Chuck. If I'm understanding you correctly the original income column represents the expected annual dividend income from the portfolio at the time of portfolio construction while the current income represents the dividends that have been received to date from the portfolio (roughly 1 year and 4 months)?
Dividends may not in the calculation be the most efficient wealth creation strategy in the company-stock holder relationship (see Berkshire Hathaway). But if you don't have the Buffett-Munger team lending discipline to managing cash and investments divdend expectations are the best task master for the changing milleau of the top officers at the enterprise.
How do we know you are not just cherry picking ABC amoung some other examples? I would like to see a video showing a real track record including everything.
although I have no need to prove anything to you, you can follow the link above to the 1st video. Note the date the video was published and note the stocks were purchased on that date. to be helpful here are the links in the 1st 3 videos: th-cam.com/video/OORI__hWFBw/w-d-xo.html th-cam.com/video/bglW9Z1K90k/w-d-xo.html th-cam.com/video/K4X2LUCY7gY/w-d-xo.html
@@FASTgraphs you are right, you don't need to prove anything to me, but should be in your interest to prove what you're doing works to your viewers. Thanks for providing the links, I'll look into it.
This has become one of my favorite channels for stocks. Really appreciate it!
mine too. Thanks for doing the work!
I want to thank everyone that view this article and expressed comments. It seems that a common question many have is: when do I sell? Frankly, this is 1 of the most difficult questions to answer because there is no simple answer or one-size-fits-all answer. For example, in the case of these portfolios the primary focus is on a certain level of dividend income followed by the income increasing each year. Consequently, capital appreciation or loss takes a backseat of sorts to the more important consideration of income.
The primary companies in question as it relates to this video are Lockheed Martin and ELEVANCE HEALTH (previously Anthem). Although I do consider both too high to initiate a new investment in, the decision as to whether to sell or hold is less straightforward. The dividend income record of both, and perhaps more importantly the growth of dividends past, present, and future are noteworthy. As a result, I feel that as the old cliché or adage goes “one in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.” On the other hand, if the investor’s goal was capital appreciation and/or capital preservation and perhaps with a shorter time focus a sell decision might be appropriate.
What follows are select excerpts from articles I have written in the past on the subject of when to sell a stock. To set the stage I want to predicate the following dialogue with the principal that there is a difference between a sell decision, a hold decision, and a buy decision. For example, the company may not be investable at these levels, but at the same time it would still qualify as a long-term hold. I often point out that great investors and great mountain climbers share a common understanding. They both recognize that the only way to get to the higher peaks is to be willing to traverse the occasional valleys that come along the way. In the context of the dividend growth portfolio, valleys rarely occur with the dividend, only with the price.
Here are some excerpts as promised starting with a few clichés: “One of my favorites is “do not pick the flowers and water the weeds.” Or another good one “let your winners run.” Although there is an element of wisdom, even profound wisdom within those clichés, they do present challenges. For example, how can you recognize the winner from the loser in advance? The same goes for distinguishing between a flower and a weed. With stock investing, most people consider a rising stock a flower, and a falling stock a weed. However, quite often it turns out to be just the opposite.”
“Legendary investor Peter Lynch in his best-selling book “One Up On Wall Street” said it like this: “Just because you buy a stock and it goes up does not mean you are right. Just because you buy a stock, and it goes down does not mean you are wrong.” The point is that a rising stock may be dangerously overvalued, while the falling stock price may indicate that the company is becoming a rare opportunity on sale. Understanding this comes down to realizing, without questioning, that the market is not always right nor is it always efficient. On the other hand, it would be more correct and accurate to say that the market, although not always efficient, is always seeking efficiency.”
That last statement is why I rely on valuation so much. Over the years I have learned that the price of the stock will inevitably align itself with the intrinsic value of the business. Unfortunately, the timing of that occurrence is unpredictable. Sometimes, the movement back to intrinsic value (up or down) can be very swift, at other times the valuation anomaly can continue for a tortuously long time. Therefore, you simply cannot predict how high is up or how low is down. On the other hand, you can recognize too high and too low when you see it. Once that is accomplished, you can make a rational long-term decision. And more importantly, if you give that decision time to work itself out, it will also be a profitable decision.
That last statement is why I rely on valuation so much. Over the years I have learned that the price of the stock will inevitably align itself with the intrinsic value of the business. Unfortunately, the timing of that occurrence is unpredictable. Sometimes, the movement back to intrinsic value (up or down) can be very swift, at other times the valuation anomaly can continue for a tortuously long time. Therefore, you simply cannot predict how high is up or how low is down. On the other hand, you can recognize too high and too low when you see it. Once that is accomplished, you can make a rational long-term decision. And more importantly, if you give that decision time to work itself out, it will also be a profitable decision.
Furthermore, the prudent intelligent value investor also understands that all investments, especially investments in common stocks, derive their value from the amount of cash they provide their stakeholder. Therefore, many investors support discounted cash flow analysis as a sound approach to assessing valuation. However, without getting too technical, you are simply attempting to determine if the business can generate enough cash to compensate you for the risk and provide you an adequate return.
“So How Do You Know When To Sell A Tech Stock?
As I established above, the honest and the correct answer is you simply cannot answer this question with perfect precision. Instead, all you can practically expect to do is make a prudent or a rational decision. Investing is not a game of perfect. Sometimes you can sell a little early, sometimes you can sell very early. In other times you can wait too long to sell and lose big as a result. Nevertheless, they do not ring a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Therefore, for sanity’s sake you must accept that you can only make rational and intelligent sell decisions. In many ways, the same can be said about the buy decision. However, in truth and fact, the buy decision is a little more straightforward.
Apply Prudent and Sensible Strategies Instead
Instead of distressing over trying to make a perfect sell decision, try applying rational strategies instead. For example, you can place an overvalued stock on a “sell watch list” like I often do. This does not mean I immediately sell, instead, it means that I am cognizant of my risk and prepared to sell quickly if the situation warrants. However, the point is, since I know I am in dangerous territory, I watch my overvalued stocks more closely than the ones I hold at sound valuation. In other words, I am willing to ride out some volatility when I have attractive value. On the other hand, when I have “false profits” I try not to let the windfall simply dissipate into thin air. To add another cliché, “a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.”
Additionally, once I place a stock on my “sell watch list” I simultaneously begin looking for suitable replacements at more attractive valuations. This can help combat seller’s remorse when I believe I can keep my money working with less risk and hopefully better long-term return potential. Therefore, short-term volatility like if the stock I sell continues to go up, it does not bother me as much as it would if I were only holding cash.
Another strategy I often implement is partial selling or trimming. I especially like doing this when I can take a substantial profit above my original investment and therefore only take risk with house money. I am currently implementing this strategy with Microchip Technology Inc. I have been long this semiconductor company since September 2010 with a cost basis of $31 per share and change. I recently sold half my position where I more than doubled my original investment.
Potential More Attractively Valued Replacements
As I stated above, a strategy that makes the sell decision easier is when a suitable but better valued replacement is discovered.
Summary and Conclusions
If you realize and accept the reality that you cannot make perfect sell - or buy decisions for that matter, the decision becomes a lot less stressful and confusing. You simply do the best you can, you make your decisions based on rational assessments of valuation and you move forward. The prudent value investor confidently makes sound and prudent investing decisions and does so without stress or remorse. In the long run, value investing pays handsomely. You simply must exercise what I call intelligent patience and trust fundamentals over stock price. Investing is not a game of perfect, but it is a rational pursuit if engaged in properly.”
I apologize for the long reply, however, as stated there is no simple or straightforward answer. I believe each investor must make those decisions based on their own goals, objectives, risk tolerances, and emotional makeup. Hope this helps. Chuck
These lookbacks are great lessons in how a value/growth portfolio behaves. Rock solid, not flashy.
Thanks for the proof that you can find excellent individual stocks even if the overall market is overvalued.
Chuck - Thank you for doing these portfolio reviews from 2021. I remember looking at those and modelled mine last year and I am glad I did, You are simply the best and I am very happy with Fast graphs.
Best investment video I've seen for years. Good job Chuck.
Thanks for another great video!
I actually liquidated my GD position and trimmed LMT. Both are overvalued presumably related to the war in Eastern Europe.
I left a comment that you'd never covered BLK, but of course you have! Thank you Mr. Valuation!
I added today some LEG to my longterm Stocks.
Thank you Chuck for the work you do with your impressive Videos!
YOU ARE INCREDIBLE
The S&P 500 is DOWN over that time.
Many high-quality dividend ETFs are DOWN over that time.
You're up TWENTY PERCENT.
You should have a show on every TV channel at 8 PM every night. Where would America be if everyone had to learn from you?
I've said it before: you're a national treasure!
@Chuck, l have some LMT, may I ask if I should sell part of it given it overvalued?
I sold out of my CAH, FMC & CI. Still holding AMGN, LMT & UGI. I sold to get capital and take advantage of quality companies dropping to bargain prices.
From this video, I think only Raymond James and Whirlpool Corp look very attractive as they are either somewhat predictable in their earnings and earnings-price-relationship or undervalued and thus worth a special look. But I also know that Chuck would only include high quality companies in this video so the others would become attractive if they experienced drops in price.
Truly appreciate your hard work !!
Fantastic learning experience! BTW, you're looking lean and healthy bro!
Thanks Chuck, can you have another look at FBHS (now FBIN) I believe they’ve just reduced their dividend from 0.28 to 0.23 a quarter?!
That's because they split into two companies...ticket symbols are now FBIN and MBC(Masterbrand Inc). Not sure if MBC will pay a dividend
I think they said the split would be 1 for 1 though so still a reduced dividend for FBIN holders going forward?
Chuck. How do you handle the following. in your personal portfolio Say you have a large position in the stock of a good business, but FASTgraphs shows the business as significantly overvalued. Would tend to sell (and either take capital gains or to offset with losers), or do you hold and just let time take its course. I'm thinking of something like buuyng UNH back in say 2010 when it was undervalued, where now it is showing significant overvaluation
here is how I handled a similar question: "I have my own rule, and you can develop yours for yourself. What I do is once a stock rises to the point where it is more than 2 years ahead of fair value based on the forecasting calculators, I flag it as a potential sell. Once on my sell watch list I keep my eye on it but I do not necessarily sell it immediately. However, simultaneously I am looking for a suitable replacement but at a much better valuation. Then if I find it compelling opportunity I can sell the overvalued stock and by the replacement. Nevertheless, I caution that a portfolio is like a bar soap the more you handle it the smaller it gets. Or another old diddy "be careful that you do not pull the flowers and water the weeds.?" Finally, once I make a decision I never look back I am always only looking forward. Regards, Chuck" regarding UNH specifically, I would still consider it a long-term hold, I agree is overvalued but I do not think dangerously so. In this case "one in the hand is better than 2 in the bush." however you need to follow your own mind. Hope this helps, regards Chuck
@davidcompton5468 @dev2594 This is Polly from support@fastgraphs.com - here are two links on selling Chuck produced in the past:
fastgraphs.com/blog/answering-the-important-questions-when-to-buy-or-when-to-sell-a-stock-part-1/
fastgraphs.com/blog/the-worst-reasons-to-sell-a-stock/
Impressive in the same period S&P500 went down 10%.
Great inspiration! My US DG-portfolio is for the long term (+20 years) so focused on dividend growth and quality but combined with some ok yeilding stocks to keep cashflow incomming to re-invest in volatile times: CMCSA, AOS, APD, CE, TROW, C, SPGI, V, ZTS, MU.
When do you decide to sell a winning position, when the upside of another stock is better and held for longer than a year to qualify for long term gains?
Double or triple is easy sell for blue chip for me
I have my own rule, and you can develop yours for yourself. What I do is once a stock rises to the point where it is more than 2 years ahead of fair value based on the forecasting calculators, I flag it as a potential sell. Once on my sell watch list I keep my eye on it but I do not necessarily sell it immediately. However, simultaneously I am looking for a suitable replacement but at a much better valuation. Then if I find it compelling opportunity I can sell the overvalued stock and by the replacement. Nevertheless, I caution that a portfolio is like a bar soap the more you handle it the smaller it gets. Or another old diddy "be careful that you do not pull the flowers and water the weeds.?" Finally, once I make a decision I never look back I am always only looking forward. Regards, Chuck
another awesome video thanks Chuck. Always learn so much about value investing from you and your team
Hello, what do you think about celanese? Andreas from Austria
Thank you for all your well thought out information.
I bought LMT at $326 a year ago and it's up $150 per share. I hadn't planned on selling but after seeing your chart, it makes me wonder if maybe it wouldn't be a good idea considering it's cyclicality.
You plan on selling it now is what you are saying ?
@@r4ym1n13 I had thought about it bit didn't. Still holding it.
Chuck appreciates all your educational video. I am a much more confident investor using your fantastic investment tool of Fast Graphs. I try to be a long-term investor, but it is not always easy. Considering the litigation blue chip MMM is going through, I sold my position today for end of the year tax loss harvesting. I would be interested in your views on MMM in a possible future video.
Great video, chuck. Regarding overvalued stocks such at ELV and LMT would you consider closing those positions to find better options elsewhere? For instance to redirect profits from ELV and LMT into positions that are still undervalued.
Hope to hear your advice on the selling aspect of stocks. You have covered amply on the when to buy, which is when stocks are under valued. How about the when to sell?
Cheers and happy holidays.
I like the long term outlook of LMT. Agreed it's expensive, but I think it'll return well in 10-20 years still.
Hi Chuck, thanks for another great video. I've got a question about Fastgraphs and can't find the answer in the help section: what does an exclamation mark in a black or red triangle mean next to the 'change/ year' percentage in the Forecasting Calculator? For instance in the Forecasting Calculator for Borgwarner inc (BWA).; there is an exclamation mark left to the number 50,36%. How do I interpretet that number? Has it something to do with an incorrect analyst scorecard?
@dutchcourage433 We place a warning flag when a growth rate is abnormal and inconsistent with either historical norms or a rational expectation of the future. All FAST Graphs is doing is alerting you to an anomalous number in the calculations. Polly from support@fastgraphs.com
Excellent job
Amazing content, big thanks!
Amazing video Chuck ❤️
Great stuff Chuck. Love the videos and look forward to the next one.
You good sir need to make a course. Thank you for the gems you’ve dropped on TH-cam.
Great, great video! Tks
I more often look your videos. You used to talk about Stainley Black and Decker a lot - before the share fell that much. Why do'n't you talk about them now, they are much cheaper now. Is the outlook that bad now?
thoughts on gel less then 10 dollars with a 15 cent div
thoughts on kraft heinz with 40 cent div
Big fan Chuck, if you find it solid could you do another dive in on BX Blackstone? i like the company but a lot of headwinds at the moment with their briet with the current interest rate environment. Thanks!
Hi,
Is this possible to ask a list of profitable shares where I can invest bcoz I’m very new in this business n totally zero in knowledge..
Could you do Global Self Storage, SELF?
Great Video😌
What an excellent video. I am learning a lot from you, Mr. Chuck!
Love the video, but I'm confused by the dividend numbers. Did the dividends for the portfolio really go up by 40+% in a little over a year?
Here's a response I gave to another viewer with the same question:
"AG, sorry but the only thing you're missing is a clear explanation from me of what those columns represent. The 1st column titled "original income" was simply a calculation of the yield on cost. So to do the math if you multiply the yield on cost by the amount invested note: the actual amount is $49,906.56 however, in the table in the video I rounded that the 50,000 just for simplicity. Nevertheless multiply the actual amount by the current yield of the stock on the date the portfolio was created 4.22% you would get $2106.06. That number would be the annualized yield based on the dividend and the current yield being expressed on that date.
In contrast the current income column was taken from the historical FAST Graph calculator over the timeframe August 24, 2001 through the current date. That amount of income is not an annualized number. Instead, it is the amount of income that was earned since the portfolio was purchased on the timeframe and the amount invested in the stock..
To summarize the original income column represented a number that would've been earned if the portfolio was held for one year, which of course it was not. It was only help from August 24 or roughly 4 months. It was wrong on my part to title it original income, it should have been called annualized income. Likewise, the current income column is not annual income but it is income that the current yield on cost would be generating. The actual amount of current income received since August 24, 2021 does accurately represent what has been received thus far. But once again it is not an annual number. I apologize I need to explain that better. Hope that clarifies it, Chuck"
@@FASTgraphs Thanks Chuck. If I'm understanding you correctly the original income column represents the expected annual dividend income from the portfolio at the time of portfolio construction while the current income represents the dividends that have been received to date from the portfolio (roughly 1 year and 4 months)?
Thank you Chuck 👍🔥
Dividends may not in the calculation be the most efficient wealth creation strategy in the company-stock holder relationship (see Berkshire Hathaway). But if you don't have the Buffett-Munger team lending discipline to managing cash and investments divdend expectations are the best task master for the changing milleau of the top officers at the enterprise.
guy should bea regular on cnbc,,,,,,,not the norcaloons on there now
How do we know you are not just cherry picking ABC amoung some other examples?
I would like to see a video showing a real track record including everything.
although I have no need to prove anything to you, you can follow the link above to the 1st video. Note the date the video was published and note the stocks were purchased on that date. to be helpful here are the links in the 1st 3 videos: th-cam.com/video/OORI__hWFBw/w-d-xo.html th-cam.com/video/bglW9Z1K90k/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/K4X2LUCY7gY/w-d-xo.html
@@FASTgraphs you are right, you don't need to prove anything to me, but should be in your interest to prove what you're doing works to your viewers. Thanks for providing the links, I'll look into it.