Catan Championship League (April - Ep3)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 เม.ย. 2021
- TryNiceGames plays in the Catan Championship League
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#TryNiceGames #Catan #BoardGames - เกม
After the city pushing one more road over to the 8/3 brick would have been my thing. Insurance for the brick port.
By the time I built the city I'm basically looking for the quickest and cheapest 2 VPs I can find.
I don't hate the idea of going for the 8/3, but I think that saving myself a road + having access to a 3:1 port might be more beneficial than adding the 3 Brick Hex to my production.
Either way, I really appreciate the comments my friend. It's always good and interesting to look at different ideas from different perspectives...
🤓👍
I think I would have started on the 10-5-6 pointed at the 9 sheep. And then put down in the middle of the 3-4-11 sheep trinity and used my free road to get to the sheep port.
This is actually a pretty interesting idea but there are a few problems with it:
1) I would be starting with 3 sheep, not a Road + Ore
2) In the game Red decided to take the 8/4 with the Sheep Port, so if I did take the 3/4/11 (Sheep Cluster) it probably creates even more of an incentive for someone to take the port and ruin my plans.
I honestly didn't think about this concept during the game, but looking at it in retrospect I think it would've been very risky to go for it with the 3rd & 6th picks.
Great game!
Cheers mate. Very close finish but it definitely felt like I was in the mix the entire time and was able to navigate through this one pretty well. 😉
If you take 6/9/10 you swap setups with black and get a much better position. 6/5/10 is also interesting. It's less clear what 4th position does in that scenario but you're always going to have something on the 4 or 10 wheat open
Yet another cool game!
19:45 The thing about 7-ing out that I rarely see spoken of is that people often overestimate its risk (risk aversion bias?). See, the risk of 7-ing out in a round (4 turns) is around 52% (1-(5/6)^4), and that is considering a worst-case scenario when you are passing your turn with 8 cards or more (the risk goes down fast when passing with 7 or 6 cards). By trying to avoid that and doing a 4:1 on your turn, you are “losing” 3 cards 100% of the time. To get a comparable expected loss of 3 cards by 7-ing out, you’d need to reach 12 cards AND hit a 7 (so the expected loss would be 52% x 6 discarded cards > 3). So, purely in terms of card number advantage in the long run, it is almost always better to risk the 7, especially when the 4:1 is trading for a card you produce a lot of. Sure, I skipped some statistical nuances here and it can make you worse-off in some games, but should be advantageous over time. Would love to hear your thoughts on this!
Thanks Jun.
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Super interesting conversation to be had on this topic. Like many things in this game I think it's situational. That's not to say that I made the right decision in this specific situation, but the odds alone shouldn't be what determines whether it's worth doing a 4:1 trade.
A few things to add to the equation:
* What is (if anything) the immediate benefit of the 4:1 trade, which in this case is a settlement + the extra Ore production.
* Is there a danger of me not being able to do what I'm trying to do if I wait?
* You mentioned the statistical probability of producing the resource that I'm burning 4 cards to get (which is what made it so painful in this case). 😅
I'm sure we could think of a few more "In Game" variables to add to this conversation outside of the dry mathematical probabilities, but I agree 100% that it's often worth pressing your luck in a game like Catan.
There's also a psychological aspect to this, where during the game I remember feeling stuck. So yeah, looking back at these spots and analysing them is a great way to improve our decision making in future games.
🤓
@@TryNiceGames Those are super valid points, and I agree that being able to accomplish something that same turn plays a huge part in it. What I sometimes see players doing is trading down the hand and then passing the turn without building anything, this is for me a bit harder to justify. That is perhaps more what I wanted to point out in the comment, less to say that you did a mistake in that specific play, but more to discuss the topic in general, which I find pretty interesting.
The best approach is probably to consider all the above and try to put aside the psychological influences, which is not always easy!
Keep up the good work!
12:47 That settlement on 3-11-12 increased your wheat production by a whooping 50%! 😃 Overall a nerve wrecking game. Reaching the 7 points threshold is the nightmare of every road player. 😬
"Increasing your Wheat production by 50%" sounds so good... except for one thing...
LOL 😂