Wasn't that mistake made by Imry Florent? I thought there was a breakdown in the chain of command because of Selyse and the Florents being given undue power, and the admiralty was making its own decisions without Stannis' input. Granted, he's still king and it's still ultimately his responsibility, but there are strange extenuating factors in Westeros when your wife's family holds a lot of your military power (see: Cersei Lannister).
@@Levacque It was a mistake made by Imry Florent, yes. IIRC Davos advised him to send forward reconnaissance and scouting ships forward into the rush, but because of a storm holding up the fleet along the coast of the Stormlands, it had arrived somewhat late and so Imry Florent, fearing for consequences if he took any longer to enter the Rush to ferry the army across, refused to send in scouts, sailing the fleet directly into the trap.
@@pax6833to be fair his scouts kept getting killed by Tyrion's tribesmen and while digging earthworks would have been wise, if they thought Tywin was coming it would have been from out of the river lands, not the reach. No one knew about the Tyrell alliance
In regards to the battle of blackwater itself, the main thing that comes to mind for me is that Stanis should probably have had better reconnaissance, a huge army took him from the back and he had no idea they were coming.
I really should read the novels, but the larger part of me wants to wait for GRRM to finish the series so that I'm not left hanging for the next quarter of my life.
The battle of Blackwater has one of my favourite descriptions: A sellsword stepped up beside him. “We been out. Three times. Half our men are killed or hurt. Wildfire bursting all around us, horses screaming like men and men like horses - "
This is the true greatness of GRRM and ASoIF. The fact that we see that events were not inevitable, but also understand why they turned out this way due to the personality and character of the people involeved.
@gaghhuh2943 I am reading a historical book, that almost reads like a (fantasy) novel, and it's crazy how true to actual history GRRM made the events, random deaths, mad kings, twists and turns, and events coused by the simplest of reasons. The only non accurate thing is all the characters having unique names. Boy nobles and royals are not original with names.
@@Zwijger Yeah grrm initially wanted the names to be accurate too but then he realized how confusing it would be. I wish history was as considerate as he is.
But larping aside, Stannis had the best smuggler in Westeros on his team. He could have sent Davos in under black sail and muffled oar to scout the defences of the enemy. Davos has infiltrated through fortified areas before and he could have at least inspected the winch towers. Then Stannis could have landed his men further down, then advance along the shore or assaulted the walls. Either way it would have prevented the ships from being boxed in.
He would never send Davos under black sail, because one good deed doesn't erase a bad one, he wouldn't send him as basically a pirate. That's the reason he cut Davos' fingertips to begin with, because he was a smuggler. Had he done that, he would've have to cut his own.
@@rottenpotato4733 Remember he does send Davos and Mel to Storms End. That's part of why I like Stannis so much, he is capable of more nuanced actions than his reputation would perhaps let on. It is said he's inflexible and rigid, two traits that are in direct opposition to his ability as a tactical commander in battle. A good commander is one who goes in with a solid plan but also gives themselves options to remain unpredictable and use the inevitable chaos of battle to their advantage. It's actually a bit out of character for Stannis to sail directly into the maw of Blackwater rush but I suppose he figured he would win the walls, which he would have, if LF hadn't "out-unpredictabled' him with the whole "Renley' shade" caper.
@@rottenpotato4733 More importantly, there wouldn't be a need to send Davos. If all you need to do is scout a well populated city, and the river it sets on, you probably already have spies inside the city walls. Hiding in plain sight.
@@ThommyofThenn But was Davos under a black flag during the shadow baby scene? Honestly, maybe he was, I just don't remember that being the case. PS: I agree Stannis' reputation is highly exaggerated and that he's more flexible than people give him credit too. Even how they address it makes no sense, "he's iron, will break before he bends". That's not how iron works, iron bends.
@@rottenpotato4733 I too have considered that "he will break before bending" description. I'm no metallurgist or blacksmith so I'm not 100% here, but I might assume that the iron might become brittle when *cold* enough...or perhaps when heated by fire (R'hllor) the "metal" could bend. Doesn't fully make sense as Stannis was skilled at manoeuvre warfare before ever meeting Mel but I'm certain there must be more to the iron Stannis/temperature metaphor. Please add on if you'd like. Anyway, Sorry about working backwards, just a habit for me. On the subject of black sails, I don't recall if he has a literal black coloured sail when sneaking into SE but it's either that or the hull of the boat itself is painted. I have the books right here so I'll take a gander. Thanks for the thoughtful reply my friend 🤓🗡🔥💓
One note of correction, Robb indirectly caused Stannis's defeat because he did not share his strategy with his chief commanders. By not briefing Edmure, Robb inadvertently caused Tywin to be held long enough for the messenger to inform him of the moves against the Capital. Even had Stannis agreed to tolerate Robb's treason instead of demanding fealty(and there was no reason for him to do so) Robb likely would have still made this mistake due to his inexperience in overall command.
@@MrMustache-yn4zm exactly when the fault lies with the Commander in Chief for not conveying both clear orders and the wider reasons for them to a commander in charge of THE key part of said plan.
Rob was a tactical genius but he had a major problem of not properly using or trusting his commanders with his plans. He trusted people based on personal feeling more than their position in his hierarchy. Edmure got the worst of that as he was operating with half the picture AND is basically the second most important person in the North/Riverlands alliance. He is de facto lord paramount of the Riverlands and so should be Rob's number 2. Sadly Rob prefers to trust northerners he knows over someone who (possibly influenced by his mother's opinions) he sees as less capable than he is. None of these are stupid. Rob is trusting people he knows and feels he can rely on. And Edmure's position at the start was poor, though nobody could probably have done much better. But they cause his downfall in his campaign almost as much as his decisions regarding the Karstarks and Freys. Of course the Karstark decision in the show is one I personally think right, but it was a major factor in him losing the war.
@@neodigremo Robb was a brilliant tactician, but an abysmal strategist. His inexperience showed primarily when it came to any long term decisions outside of an immediate battlefield situation. Robb firstly went along with the Northern secession despite this being explicitly against what his father had wanted, which while it made him more popular in the short run, it highlights just how much sway his lords held over his decisions. His choice to do this had the consequences of alienating the Baratheon brothers. Had Robb remained a Lord he could have allied more easily with either Stannis or Renly. Secondly, Robb was uneasy around Roose Bolton, so he constantly assigned him to positions away from his own, which gave Bolton a large degree of autonomy he otherwise wouldn't have enjoyed had he been kept closer. Thirdly, Robb led from the front, which while brave, often caused him to lose larger strategic command, placed himself in significant danger of injury and death, which when it did happen at the Crag, paralyzed his army for the duration of his recovery. Fourthly, Robb was young and impulsive, this led to his tryst with Westerling, he then felt he was honor bound to marry her, despite the obvious long term consequences of that choice. Fifth, Robb constantly made promises and commitments to achieve tactical victories without considering the long term strategic consequences. Breaking his pact with the Freys cost him 4,000 soldiers and a direct line of communication. His execution of Karstark instead of placing him as a hostage and then recalling Karstark's men cost him yet more. Sixth, Robb's complete ignoring of Balon's historic grudge against the North and the long term consequences if Balon or Theon don't do what he wants blinds him to the Iron Born invasion. To put it bluntly, he trusted a House who's motto literally translates to, "We'll steal your stuff!" Finally, we come to Robb's decision(or oversight) with not informing Edmure about his plan to lure Tywin away from the Riverlands. This had the direct result of utterly destroying the one chance Robb had of destabilizing the Lannisters. Even Robb's plan was to achieve the short term tactical advantage over the Lannisters, while ignoring that whoever won the battle of the Blackwater would become the dominant power. If Tywin's side wins, the threats to the south are quashed and he can concentrate on the North, if Stannis won, a similar outcome would have come about and then Stannis would have been able to strike North. Either way, Robb's "plan" ignores the long term consequences in favor of short term gain. All of these were done with short term tactical gains in mind, which ignored the larger strategic situation and consequences.
what would happen? Easy he would conquer the city and than either reach and kill Jofrey than wait for being killed by Tywin or he would not even reach Jofrey and he would die in Kings Landing anyway, and some time later the King Beyond the Wall would reach over the Wall and wreck havok in the North
In ASOIAF there’s always a thousand ways things could’ve turned out differently. The whole story is like an atom. Add or remove one little piece and everything changes.
I believe that choice wasn’t made by Stannis, but his brother in law (who was in charge of the fleet) and was because a storm had delayed their arrival.
Davos made the suggestion, but Davos wasn't the fleet commander, some noble was, and highborn dipshits being highborn dipshits, ignored Davos' advice because Davos wasn't born a noble.
Stannis is a lot like Ned - he refuses to engage in certain aspects of the game - he won't lie to forge an alliance with Robb with the intent to deal with him later, he won't accuse the Lannister children of being illegitimate without proof. He understands that he *could* do these things, but he doesn't. And then when he doesn't, when he does the right thing, he gets into even deeper trouble, and is forced to confront another troubling "hard way vs easy way" situation. I'd love to know if he can keep his principles when things get truly ugly freezing outside winterfell, or if he allows Melissandre to seduce him into breaking them.
What he should have done is the moment he heard about Eddard Starks death he should have sent a letter to all the lords in the seven kingdoms ,explainig why Cersei's children are bastards , in the books Robb didn't know joffrey was a bastard and didn't want to support Stannis because he looked like a self serving man trying to get power for himself, Thus Robb would be more willing to work with Stannis The other thing Stannis should have done is attack kingslanding imediatley since the garrison was smaller it was poorly and Tyrion hadn't arrived jet, and he should have used the antler men who were Stannis supporters to bribe members of the city watch to open the gates once he arrived
Stannis didn't have nearly enough men to attack King's Landing before he killed Renly. Stannis likely had no more than 5000 men, while the gold cloaks alone had like 6000, with at least 1500 of those truly being reliable, the rest being mostly recent hires. It shouldn't be too hard for 1500 troops to defend a walled city (or worst case even just the red keep), against 5000. Heck, Stannis would have a tough time even trying to enforce a blockade of the city, surrounding it and cutting off supply to starve the whole population out. As for bribing his way in, he is not really the kind of guy to resort to those tactics.
@@Michaelonyoutub like i said he should have bribed members of the city watch to open the mudd gate and considering how corrupted the watch was it wouldn't be to hard.
4:12 you are forgetting in this hypothetical an important detail. If Stannis somehow had taken King's Landing, He would have had Cersei, her children and Tyrion in his custody. Which gives him leverage over Tywin. And Sansa, which gives him leverage over the northerners. Tywin would not have dared to attack King's Landing even with the Tyrells at his back. It would have been the end of his house.
He could also leverage the fact the Ned Stark took up arms to secure the throne for Stannis and for Robb and the North to act against Stannis by proclaiming independence would be no different than what the Lannisters did you Ned.
That's if Cersei didn't kill herself and her children before being taken into custody. Wasn't that her plan? At least for Tommen and Myrcella? And Stannis would kill Joffrey on principle as the rival claimant/usurper. That leaves Tyrion, and I am not sure how much leverage that would be for Tywin... especially with Jaime away and definitely not joining Stannis' Kingsguard (interesting question, though would Jaime insist on staying to obey his vows and would Stannis let him? Or would Jaime finally join his father fully without Cersei around and as a revenge? Where exactly was Jaime at that moment in time?). Stannis would have Sansa to barter with Robb and members of other families to exchange for fealty though.
@@LusiaEyre Good points. But the question is if the Tyrells would still support a faction that has lost their claimant to the throne. The possibility of marrying Margery off to Joffrey was the main reason for siding with the Lennisters over anyone else.
@faketheo3432 I doubt the Tyrells would support Tywin without the option of Margaery becoming Queen. Unless he offers them Jaime and the future as the Lady of the Rock? Of course, if Jaime lives and joins his father to finally be his heir and avenge Cersei. Otherwise, the Tyrells would be better off going home and waiting for dust to settle. Stannis has only a daughter, and a potential male heir is bound to emerge even as an unofficial backup. So they would keep Margaery free to push on that guy :) Stannis might not like them, though, for siding with the Lannisters (but I don't think he would go against them so soon and before consolidating power). He might keep Margaery at court as a lady companion to his Queen and daughter as a hostage of sorts?
@@faketheo3432technically it wouldn’t be the end of his house, there’s plenty of other Lannister’s running about including his brother. It could be the end of his line, which Twyin would likely see is nearly just as bad. That is assuming that Jamie didn’t renounce his oath and become Twyins heir, which did always seem to be Twyin’s preferred option. I agree he’d likely not want to risk the hostages while Jamie was still in the wind, I do wonder if Jamie had managed to meet up with his father before the siege, wether Twyin might consider cutting his loses and using that to persuade Jamie to come back to him.
One thing that wasn’t mentioned is that Melisandre may have inadvertently led Stannis astray with a misreading of a prophecy. Stannis tells Davos that Melisandre saw him being defeated by Renly’s forces at King’s Landing if he went straight there. So she councils him to first go to Storm’s End to gain more men for army. But what’s implied later on is that she actually saw the Battle of the Blackwater in her fires. What she thought was Renly leading his forces to victory over Stannis was most likely just Tywin, Ser Loras and his brother (dressed in Renly’s armor) leading their forces against Stannis. If Stannis had gone to King’s Landing sooner; he most likely would’ve taken the city. Even Tyrion keeps hoping that Stannis will take longer to reach the city to give him enough time to strengthen it’s defenses. Otherwise, he knows that Stannis will definitely take the city.
I think you’re right about Melisandre’s vision BUT if Stannis had gone straight to King’s Landing with only his few initial supporters, Renly and his much larger army would have trapped Stannis there with his few supporters and he would’ve lost anyway. Going after Renly first is how Stannis acquired his army in the first place.
I think he could have won if he did something more conservative. He kind of went into a trap head first. But also how about negotiating with Renley instead of wasting forces and time so he had a larger host. It's really on his brother Robert though he let the throne go to heck.
The Battle of Blackwater was easily winnable even on the face of it. If Stannis gets his army into King's Landing before Tywin shows up, Stannis is in a commanding position. Joffrey and the remnants of the Lannisters would hole up in the keep, but they would not hold out long. Stannis would have the advantage of the city's battlements, minus the weak point at the Mud Gate (which could possibly be doubly covered by Stannis' remaining ships). Tywin would be *forced* into an immediate assault, because if Stannis kills or captures Joffrey and the rest of the succession, the war is an instant loss for him. This would put his army at a massive disadvantage, even despite overwhelming superiority of numbers. Stannis could easily win. A good example of a similar battle would be Actium, although that is quite different in smaller details. So all he would need to do is have better reconnaissance (both of the countryside and the river) and conduct his attack more cautiously to limit losses, then stick to the original plan and overwhelm the small defending forces in King's Landing. Occupy the city, then swing around to man the battlements against Tywin. Repell/outlast Tywin until the Keep is starved into surrender or stormed.
probably not. tywin's not stupid, he knows if king's landing is lost (and his grandchildren too) the war isn't worth continuing, his goal likely would be to secure a peace that favours house lannister as much as possible and bend the knee
Even if Stannis took the city before Tywin and the Tyrrells arrived, and even if he was able to defend the walls from them, he would find a capital without food or gold, the Tyrells would prevent anyfood coming from land from the South and food wouldn't come from the Riverlands that are burning and under the control of Robb unless Stannis accepts Northern independence wich is not likely in the short term, he would have lost most of his fleet, and without ships or money he can bring food and is lost the Lannisters would eventually find Tommen and marry him to Margeary, if Tywin is smart he might offer Robb a truce maybe even allow for independence, all to prevent Robb kneeling to Stannis,asking only for Robb to abandon the westerlands, all Tywin has to do is wait for Robb to go to the Twins on his way to the North for the Red Wedding to Happen, then wait for Stannis to die, Stannis needed Robb to win from the begining,.
The problem with that is that by taking the city, he has Joffrey. The Tyrells only agreed to join up with Tywin because of the betrothal between Joffrey and Margaery. With that effectively neutralized, the Tyrells can easily dip out...or stab Tywin in the back and put them back to Highgarden and the drawing board.
@@sertorrhenclegane While that's true Olena new about Joffrey's cruelty already at bitterbridge, and Sansa got the necklace as soon as the blackwater was over so they were already thinking on switching Joffrey for Tommen, then there os rhe issue that Stannis hates them, having backed his brother and rhen the Lannisters wluld make stannis hate them more and Stannis wife is a Florent who believe themselves to have a claim to highgarden and Stannis has spokrn in favor of that claim.
@@davidbadillomirete8226 I think that only works if you trust Littlefinger is telling the truth that he had wheels within wheels when dealing with the Tyrells and being a part of their plot from start and he wasn't just lying to Sansa. Considering that he's a liar and manipulator, I can easily see that being the case and the audience just goes along with it because it always feels as if he's ahead of the game based on his confidence alone. As for Stannis, I don't recall him actually speaking in favor for the Florents' claim to Highgarden. If anything, he seemed more than ready to punish Alester Florent once he had the throne for initially siding with Renly. He only allowed him and the other Florents to rise as high as they have out of political pragmatism as they are (were) the richest and most powerful of his supporters. While I can see him lopping off Mace's head, I don't see him doing the same to the rest of the family. I see him taking lands and possibly taking titles and giving them to men that he considers loyal, in the vein of Daeron II after the first Blackfyre Rebellion, but I don't see them losing Highgarden or much else. I can see him just never letting them be a part of the governance of the realm. For a family that ambitious, that's punishment enough.
@@davidbadillomirete8226it’s been a while since I read the books, but wasn’t Tommen also in kings landing? So Stannis would also have him held hostage (assuming Cersi didn’t poison him with herself like she was planning too). Depending on the outcome, the only of “Robert’s” children left would be Marcella, who Tyrion had shipped down to Dorne and already has a marriage lied up. So there wouldn’t be a spot on the throne to tempt the Tyrell’s. At which point, do they even decide to support the Lannisters, or do they use the same strategy they used in Roberts rebellion of trying to sit out the rest of the mess and not piss anyone off more then they have.
The series of events leading to where they led up until the end of book 5 is such a fragile construct. Many things could have gone different and the outcome would be nothing we could recognize anymore.
The actual mistake that cost Stannis the victory isn't his own, but one of Robb's. I'd argue Robb's single biggest mistake, bigger than breaking the Frey marriage alliance: not telling Edmure the plan. Tywin was only able to form his alliance with Mace & make for King's landing because Edmure delayed his forces from pursuing Robb into the Westerlands. Thing is, Robb *wanted* Tywin to pursue him; Robb had the advantage on the field, even on Lannister home territory, & Tywin would have been trapped between the Northern army & Riverrun. But Robb didn't explain this to Edmure, he just told him to "hold Riverrun" & trustes that the lack of further elaboration would be enough, not counting on Edmure showing some initiative at the worst possible time. Take that mistake away & even if Robb still breaks the Frey alliance, the whole complexion of the war changes. The Tyrells don't get involved, Stannis takes King's Landing & kills or captures the Lannister version of the Royal family. Robb either defeats Tywin on the field or- crazy idea - Tywin actually sues for peace with the Starks to focus on Stannis. Might depend on whether or not Tomen escapes alive & Tywin still has a dog in the fight for the throne.
Re: Robb not telling Edmure Agree. If Robb's master plan was to lure Tywin west, then he should have told his field commanders (i.e., Edmure) to allow Tywin's army to pursue unmolested. When Edmure prevents the crossing, Tywin changes strategy and withdraws to the SE, to Harrenhal.
robb is literally the reason why robb stark was killed, the red wedding literally never happens unless robb decides to be retarded and blow up the alliance with the freys, just cause he wanted to clap some westerling girl as for not telling edmure the plan, if he did tell him plan, then robb's army would be destroyed with himself and whoever else is there
Pretty sure Tommen is less likely to survive then Joffery, since Cersi was going to poison him as well as herself if the city fell. Joffery could survive if he surrenders and Stannis doesn’t want to kill him, a possibility since Joffery is still basically a child and Stannis tries to be a mostly moral man. Though given he killed his brother for the same crime (falsely claiming the throne) I’m not sure it’s likely.
@@finlayames6216 it's been a while but I couldn't remember if that was a show-only thing or not; in the books, I recalk Tyrion having Tommen captured & taken out of the city & to a crown loyalist castle specifically for insurance as he was the heir if Joffery died. Couldn't remember if Cersei got him back before the battle or not but I feel like not because she wasn't a pov character in the books at that point so we wouldn't have seen the near poisoning for dramatic effect.
Stannis and Robb were never allies because Stannis didnt want , he never asked Robb to trap Tywin anyway it was just Robb's new idea and it comes so fast that it wasnt well done
I was just rewatching the series and I would absolutely love to hear your theory on what Margaery Tyrell was planning for overcoming the high sparrow and the faith militant! Could make for a very interesting video!
It just occurred to me that Stanis’ army very well could have had (should have?) prior knowledge of the chain. It was on both banks, with towers, and every blacksmith on the street of Steel was made to forge links or face punishment from the crown. A difficult secret to keep. It’s fun to imagine Stanis’ fleet, unbeknownst to the reader, using intel to somehow foil the or destroy the chain hinting at the tide turning in favour of the invaders. Of course they would still rush headlong into the maw of the Jade dragon. No one could write a word better about that trap. Anyway, a fun thought. Thanks Robert! ✌️🔥⚔️
So long as he was unable to stop Tywin and the Tyrells I don’t think he would have been able to pull out the win. Maybe if he had been able to attack earlier? I don’t see any other way to overcome that force led by that commander:
If he did take the city, his best hope would be to try and buy off the Tyrell’s somehow. Both Joffery and Tommen would be hostages or dead (Tommen is especially likely to be dead since believe Cersi was planning to poison him if the battle was lost). It’s not likely either is surviving to take the throne in any case, so no making Margery queen. I’m which case the legal heir would be either Marcella or probably Stannis (depending how the succession laws, not sure who gets priority). If it’s Marcella, she’s already got a match so no Tyrell on the throne unless Twyin wants to piss off the Dornish (which is possible, but it’s a harder proposal to squash then Sansa’s was since Dorn is still technically loyal). So depends what else Twyin can offer them and if that is better the Tyrell’s swapping over to Stannis (since Twyin would be unlikely to be capable of beating the larger Tyrell army, especially if they have Stannis’ forces as well).
The last part of the video is so enlightening - maybe for Melisandre and her backing of Stannis never had anything to do with Stannis personally, but she knew she'd need an army in the North to protect Jon Snow from wildlings and the Others. Talk about 4-D chess!
Early Stannis is very different from late Stannis. Early on he's rigid, later on he just pretends to be. Davos is promoted every time he defies him, he does swaps at the wall, he listens to Jon, Theon and Asha are still alive. His daughter may burn but I think it will be an accident by the Nights Watch rather than Stannis doing it. He doesn't even seem to believe...
I think he would have won at the battle of the blackwater if he had Melisandra. She has the power to control fire. It would have been a good opportunity to showcase the power of the lord of light. To show the power of fire is greater than the power of the seven. His pride was his ruin in that battle.
Imagine melisandre upon seeing the wildfire explosion smirking saying something like “The lord of light makes his presence known and he smiles upon us” then she does some magic shit and uses the fire to their advantage
Stannis didn’t need to win to win, he just needed to not fight. They take King’s Landing if they just park at the mouth and send a raven to the Northman. They just park on the kings road and starve out the city until the city people turns on the lannisters and kills them all. It wouldn’t even have taken any time, they were already basically starving
time was of the essence then, and judging how quickly the lannister-tyrell army was approaching if stannis sieged the city and digged in he and his army would have been completely wiped out unlike the majority of it in the books
I didn't watch the show and it's been so long since I read the book I'm probably forgetting some details. But it sounds like he should have just encircled the city and lay siege to it. With a new boy king on the throne it wouldn't take long for the populace of the city to rise up and do Stannis' work for him once they started to run out of food.
Twyin and the Tyrell’s literally arrive mid assault. Had Stannis waited, he’d still have lost to the far larger armies of the Reach and the Westerlands. Best case scenario, his fleet gets out and leaves the majority of his land forces to fight a rearguard, which is basically what happened anyway.
@@finlayames6216 Yeah see, I didn't even remember that until later in the video when he mentioned Tywin coming. But I made this comment before that. I think George R.R. Martin is going to wait til everyone forgets what happened in the books before he writes the next one.
I only saw the show, but in my opinion the moment he lost was when he started listening to the Mellisandre. If he was not so certain that his victory is certain, and if he had no magical tricks up his(her) sleeve (not-necessarily-sleeve), then he would be more likely to cooperate with Renly. Perhaps they would form a shaky alliance. Perhaps they would together try to avange their brother who got murdered. Mayhaps. I think Renly was sure of his victory and thus unlikely to cooperate with Stannis, because Stan alienated himself from everyone with this new religion. It was easier to follow a charismatic and likable king over the grim guy from rock castle with foreign religion that burns your septons. And...I think its no surprise that together both Beratheons would be two antlers of the stag that pierce the golden lion.
From a tactical point of view, sending scouting ships ahead to see what awaited them on the Blackwater Rush, rather than piling head long into a trap like that fool of a Florent did probably would have led to Stannis taking the City. However, how long he would have held it when the Lannister/Tyrell army arrived, with little provisions inside the walls is another matter. Sure Stannis is famous for holding out against a numerical stronger opponent at Storms End, but trying to fed 20/30k men along with the population of Kings Landing would have been a tall order even if Stannis still possessed superior naval forces for now. Strategically, however it was all moot. Once Renly was dead and the Stannis was unable to offer the Tyrells and alliance through marriage, which they probably wouldnt have entertained anyway, the Lannister/Tyrell pact was almost inevitable. Stannis needed his own ally in the field to tie up the Lannisters while he focused on taking, securing and then striking out from King's Landing himself. Its important to note that when Robb was named King in the North, only Joffrey and Renly had declared themselves King. While his bannerman might have dismissed Stannis when proclaiming Robb King, he himself pointed out Renly couldnt come before Stannis in the line of succession. Robb's main concern was bending the knee to a Lannister King in all but name ( and in reality too) so its not beyond the realms of possibility that he could have agreed a pact with Stannis to work together in the field and sort line of succession once their common foe was defeated. Stannis' biggest problem was he thought all men owed him feality and he wasn't willing to compromise in order to put himself in a stronger position overall.
I wonder if Dany might face a similar fate. She may take King's Landing but fail to hold it, or simply fail to take it. And her failure might change her, perhaps sending her north.
Tecnically, Stannis' defeat was due to 2 factors: 1- Letting Melisandre at Storm's End instead taking her with him, where she could've warned him of Tyrion's trap and the Tyrell's alliance. 2- Edmure's interference in Robb's plan to trap Tywin, thanks to the former's "glory seeker" tendencies and the "poor comunication skills" from the later.
Edumure isn't to blame for Stannis losing or winning, the Tyrell army was coming anyways with or without Tywin, as for Melisandre coming, honestly I have no idea what would happen but magic does a lot in ASOIAF doesn't it?
@@maxtomlinson8134not really had Robb's plan worked he could destroy Tywin's main force or take the rock if it didn't. Either makes Tywin a horrible ally for the Tyrells who were neutral and could marry loras to Shireen to still secure power. Likely shireen would inherit with how old her mother was and her previous pregnancy issues.
@@SerfinBird Robb's plan was never going to work and if it was carried out his army and himself would have been killed, it doesn't matter if stannis or joffrey wins at blackwater, since they'd fight whatever remains of the north
@@maxtomlinson8134 He won every battle he fought. Tywin was so scared he had to plot to kill him at a wedding, Ned was also one of the great battle commanders of his time which clearly passed on to Rob. He defo would have demolished Tywin.
I would have loved to see Renly and Stannis working together, and making an alliance with Robb. It would have been better to make alliances quickly, and worry about northern independence later. It would have been a much shorter war, though, as Renly has the Tyrell's support, leaving the Lannisters with very little to make this an even fight. If Melesadre foresaw the wildfire, and kept it from burning Stannis' ships, they may have taken the walls outside of the Red Keep, and held off Tywin's forces as they kept anyone from leaving the keep. Or if they could grab Cersei, force Tywin to withdraw his troops. Tommen would have been killed, though, and Cercei may have drank poison as well. Sansa would have become a ward of Stannis, which would have left her better off than a Lannister captive.
I think if Caitlyn Stark sided with Stannis like Rob Stark originally wanted, and both Rob and Stannis teamed up together, Rob could of drawn Tywin Lannister's army in the north like he originally planned at the same time as Stannis attacked Kings Landing, then the Lannister army wouldn't of reinforced Kings Landing meaning Stannis would of had a better chance of winning
The issue was, Robb had already been declared king in the north by his lords and Stannis wouldn’t accept that. The only way he’d ally with the north is if they renounced their independence, which would have been politically very difficult for Robb.
Lol I am pretty sure a Zerg sneak attack by stannis with his initial forces alone would have prevailed over KL. It would have definitely gotten Tywin to pull everything out the river lands but would still be a dicey situation (he would have the capital, likely any Lannister loyalist and a large fleet but not much else).
Yes, but also very much No. He could have taken King's Landing, probably just by sending scouts into the river instead of most of his fleet. So here I guess he wins the battle of Blackwater. But Tywins army will still arrive and besiege Stannis in the city, leaving Stannis to defend KL's while also laying siege to Cersi/Joffery holding up in the Red Keep. So the question would then be could Stannis somehow defeat Tywin's massive army besieging Kings Landing? I don't think so. There's a crusader battle, the siege of Antioch I think, where the crusaders laid siege to the city and stormed it just before a Muslim relief army arrived and laid siege to them in turn. It doesn't go well for the crusaders though they do win in the end. The city was totally depleted of supplies, the gate and walls damaged from the Crusaders own attacks, the population was hostile to them and Muslim defenders were still holding up in the city's citadel. It drives the Crusaders to a desperate sally out of the city rather than starve to death, they take the field and win (this is the famous battle where the crusaders discover the "holy lance" and charge out in religious frenzy). So would Stannis have a holy lance moment? Maybe then, but otherwise no.
If Stannis could have just breached the castle, and Cersei drank the poison, the ENTIRE REALM would have dodged bullets. But then the story wouldn’t have been the same, at all.
Nothing prevents Stannis from doing reconnaissance and avoiding being trapped by the chain on the river or the Lannister army. He also knows this going in: he can't take and hold King's Landing without a quick decapitating strike, so any attack that doesn't try for this is a big mistake.
The chain was because his brother in law (who was commanding the fleet) didn’t want to wait as they’d be delayed by a storm. As for Lannisters, once Stannis was at the city it was kinda too late. The Lannister/Tyrell’s were bearing down on him. They still would have been caught against the far larger army, regardless of if they were assaulting the city or prepping to siege. Stannis didn’t have the men to win a straight fight. His only other option would be to have the fleet take whatever they could to safety while the others tried to simply outrun the Lannister/Tryell host. Instead he went with the only option that might actually give him some kind of victory, a quick assault hoping to take the city, then when Twyin arrives he’d find Stannis entrenched in the city. Twyin might not even want to carry on the fight, since Cersi and Tommen would be dead to her poisoning them, Joffery would be dead or captured. Would Twyin even want to carry on the war, since the crown would fall either to Marcella down in Dorne or to Stannis, who was currently sitting on the iron throne. The Tyrell’s might even swap sides, since Marcella already has a match so no Tyrell on the throne that side, while Stannis might agree to marry his daughter to one of the Tyrell boys.
The main other scenario is the one pretty much laid out in the books. Here, Stannis acts slightly faster or Tywin slightly slower (a matter of hours) and takes the city before Tywin arrives. As he gets to the holdfast, a messenger comes out declaring their surrender, as Tommen, Joffrey, Cersei and Sansa (among others) have died of poison, which is soon verified. When Tywin arrives, Stannis withdraws what forces he can into the city, and Tywin would hear the ringing of bells. Envoys would be sent out, and he'd learn that the king was killed by Cersei through use of poison. While skeptical, he would realize it's not like Stannis to lie about that, nor to actually use poison to kill the king, so I think he would demand to see the bodies, which Stannis would agree to, dissolving any uncertainty. That changes the situation, as they've lost their cause to fight for. Stannis is now the last male Baratheon, with only Myrcella (under Dornish law) a possible rival claimant, and Robb's title a matter of contention. But Stannis is widely viewed as a jerk, conspiring with sorcery, a heretic, kingslayer and kinslayer, so it'll take a long time before he is able to force any matter. In this time, the North will negotiate a settlement - probably after the Dornish model. Tywin meanwhile has lost three scions, and the other three are [effectively] hostages. I expect he'll focus his efforts on the one thing he can effect: finishing the war in the Riverlands, saving his family's honor and recovering Jaime, who will inevitably be fired from the Kingsguard by Stannis. Tywin's forces are now limited to the depleted forces of the Westerlands, with no likely allies, against two great houses with considerable strength. Being a formidable strategist, I think he'll force another battle against Edmure before Robb can return, cuts off his retreat and forces a capture of Riverrun, including Hoster and Catelyn. This would be a good basis for peace as Robb returns. Hostages will be exchanged, Riverrun will offer concessions to satisfy the honor of the Lannisters, and frankly, both depleted sides very much need peace, to deal with the Ironborn (also an old threat to the Lannisters) and whatever Stannis might be up to. Bolton (who holds Jaime) would consider his options here. Had Robb been captured, he might have made a deal, but now his best card is probably raising his station for recapturing the Kingslayer. Conspiring with Tywin has nothing really to offer. The Freys also have little leverage aside from snatching Edmure as a prize. In the aftermath, I think peace will mostly be restored, aside from the usual squabbles. However, Stannis' reign will always be tenuous. Many rebellions will ensue, though none gain strength because they offer no legitimate heir. That all changes when Stannis wants to make Shireen his proper heir, therefore declaring women equal in the inheritance. Originally this also bestows Storm's End to Myrcella (and makes her heir to Casterly Rock), but in the eyes of most, that also makes her the heir to King Joffrey. Though she, Trystane and Doran don't openly join any such sentiments, it will nonetheless be enough to cause Stannis' downfall as there's now an alternative to unite behind.
Landing by sea was generally pretty dumb. They could have just landed and made a defensible beach head, then seige the city. They gave up the movement speed of yheir boats to go to a known spot where the defenders were already there
Yeah a siege, with fortifications against a relief force, is the way to go. The city had no love for joffery and cersei, if stannis portrayed himself as a liberator the city would likely mutiny and open the gates. The red keep might resist longer but once stannis entered the city walls it would be impossible for twin to dig him out.
It wasn't dumb, it was just the plan wasn't as good as it should of been, and he was successful im almost storming the city, it's just tyrion's efforts to defend king's landing bought enough time for tywin to show up with the tyrells
"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless." The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead - " " - you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt." "We all know what my brother would do. Robert would gallop up to the gates of Winterfell alone, break them with his Warhammer, and ride through the rubble to slay Roose Bolton with his left hand and the Bastard with his right. I am not Robert. But we will march, and we will free Winterfell … or die in the attempt." - Stannis Baratheon ALL HAIL STANNIS BARATHEON! THE ONE TRUE KING OF WESTEROS! AND THE KING IN THE NORTH!!!
Even following the timeline we have, if he'd attacked King's Landing first and ignored Storm's End, he'd have won. In my mind, the biggest missing piece from that part of the story is for Robb to send Stannis a letter when Robb was crowned, explaining that Robb was ONLY in rebellion against Joffrey, not Stannis. If that letter had been written, and successfully reached Stannis, they'd both have won. Having had a taste of kingship, Robb would have gratefully bent the knee to Stannis after Stannis captured King's Landing and Robb took out Tywin in the field. Part of what I love about the books that doesn't get discussed much is that, just like in real life, we have so many visible outcomes and can play the "what if?" game so much. ASOIAF isn't just one story; it's many stories, including the one on the pages and dozens we can see between them.
I dont think Robb was only în rebelion to Jofrey, I think he was în rebelion to the institution of the Iron Throne itself , in less than 20 years 3 lords of the North were killed in Kings Landing : Robbs 's father ,uncle and grandfather , even if one of them was hand of the king So no if Robb didnt bent the knee to Renly who made his claim to the throne public months before Stannis, he woudnt bent the knee to him
@@flavius5722 That's not how I read it. Granted, if I was in Robb's position I'd have done a lot of things differently (I'd never have accepted the crown in the first place), but Robb repeatedly makes it clear that he's only refusing to make peace with the Lannisters and the Greyjoys because they killed his relatives. He tried to make peace with Renly, although Renly was murdered before they could come to any terms. He never thought of a way to make peace with Stannis. We can surmise Stannis would've accepted peace with Robb as long as Robb demonstrated submission and loyalty, and since Stannis didn't kill any of his family I don't see why Robb would refuse to submit to Stannis's rule. The Starks value honor and fidelity to duty just as much as he does, and Robb would pretty quickly believe that Joffrey was illegitimate and Stannis was the lawful heir.
@@JervisGermane Yeah but I still think you dosent get my point Its how Robb and his men see the situation ,why did Robb become king in the first place,why he dosent make peace , how they see Stannis : The southerners don't respect us , they already killed 3 starks who werent guilty of anything The Iron Throne is forcing us in wars we dont want Robb is OUR leader , half Tully half Stark , brave and honorable Stannis had told Catelyn that he see no difference betwen Robb and Jofrey He cares only about his Throne not about our just cause He has a chance to allied himself with us and he refuse He had killed his own brother This all that Robb and his men know about the Iron Throne and Stannis The question is what should they belive that Stannis is better than the Mad King ,or Joffrey?
I think a much more important question is "SHOULD Stannis have tried to take King's Landing?" My answer would be frankly no. At least at this stage of the war. It is too hard to hold and nothing but a drain on resources in a war situation. You win the war and then take the capital not the other way round.
As virtue is necessary in a republic, and in a monarchy honor. --Montesquieu To maintain a feudal system and a monarchy, honor is essential. Stannis and Ned/Rob Starks represent this essential element, but ironically they have no chance at all in a messy, machiavellian game of thrones.
A 3.5 to 1 disadvantage against Tywin's 70,000 isn't too bad as long as he breached the city quickly and without too many losses. The walls are a force multiplier and the Baratheon troops are professional soldiers rather than peasants, also the Tyrell & Lannister force was also presumably moving fast so wouldn't have brought equipment for a siege. If he had sent scouts ahead they would have reported back on the chain towers at the mouth of the river, they might not have known their purpose but a strategic commander like Stannis would know they'd be defensive in nature and would have them taken before moving in. Having Cersei, Tyrion, and the royal family hostage would also greatly aid as if Tywin attacked then Stannis could have them all executed, thus permanently ending the Lannisters hopes of controlling the throne. From Tywin's perspective with one of his heirs in Robb's custody and the other's in Stannis's he'd have to withdraw or sue for peace.
There are a few of problems with this plan , its all right that you forget some minor details : 1) Stannis did sent scouts but those were killed by Tyrion' Vale clansmens hiding in the forest south of blacwater ,before the battle 2) Even if he takes the city , he would not have hostages ,Tyrion and Lancel were badly wounded and they only survived because they were carried to Pycelle, but if the city fall their biodies will be abandond in the chaos Cersei would had killed herself, and most important Tommen is not in Kings Landing during the battle ( at least in the books ) so the only prisoner will be Jofrey but he cant be left alive and Tywin will rather have Tommen as king anyway 3) The city just suffer riots because of the lack of food ( a city of 500k people ) , even Stannis can hold it for a time , the population will revolt and his soliders will be weaker day by day I think he should've been in KL where Ned was still Hand and Robert alive
Davos is who to look at for a different outcome. Davos KNEW the ships were sailing into a trap and Sunglass refused to listen to Davos. Stannis shud have put Davos in charge of his boats/fleet. The ONLY thing Stannis had to do to change it ALL, to WIN, was give Davos the lead on water.
Just a slight correction, Lord Sunglass was thrown into the dungeon for not wanting to support Stannis anymore after he burnt the sept at Dragonstone. He was burnt alive during the Battle of the Blackwater. It was a Florent who led the charge, Imry Florent, who also died
I think he could have won the battle, but I imagine it would have gone down similar to Rhaenyra in the dance, with him being forced to abandon the capital, unless he somehow pulled the Tyrells or Starks in on his side.
Trying to win honorably instead of using every weapon available is the reason Stannis failed. Also, I think it shows the difference between himself and Robert. Robert was lauded in stories, but the reality is he did anything to get what he wanted.
To be honest, I think that the overall story could have worked out pretty much exactly the same if Stannis and Robb had allied. It might even add an extra element of tragedy to the story for Stannis because Tywin is still blocked from heading West, thus he allies with the Tyrells and arrives at King's Landing to defeat Stannis. Then Stannis retreats to Dragon Stone and shortly thereafter he finds out about Robb's murder at the Twins and the destruction of his army. In the end, the result is the same.
I always wished that Robb and Stannis had teamed up. Maybe by Robb having more of a prescience at the council that made him king and fully backing Stannis then, or perhaps by Stannis demanding that Robb bend the knee, and then two deciding to settle the dispute by having champions fight for them. But that second one is less likely in all honesty.
He rushed his war. I know Kings Landing is only a short boat ride from Dragonstone, but he could've taken a longer war campaign by taking all the forts, towns, and other cities in Crownlands surrounding Kings Landing. This would've shortened the provisions to Kings Landing and forced their armies to come out of their walls to reclaim lost territories. Also, even if Stannis took King's landing, would he be able to hold it? Other armies would've arrived to siege him. Taking the main city right away early in the war is not a good idea. That's not how medieval wars were fought.
If you ask me… no. Sorry Stannis fans. As great as that character is, he did not make moves to secure himself help. He was not fast with it. He expected people to come to him, which was not going to happen. No amount of recon would have prevented the Tyrell/Lannister troops taking you in the back during the battle. He should have spent the time he had making allies with Robb Stark before the crown touched his head. He also should have had someone talk sense to Renly. The Battle of the Blackwater was lost before it started.
Here's a potential new topic for you to contemplate. I hope you do, because I'm honestly curious about your thoughts on it. Old Nan began her story for Bran by saying 'The FIRST TIME the White Walkers came...' Doesn't this imply that the White Walkers came at least two times, maybe more? What if there had bee TWO Long Nights? One that started the Age of Heroes and, my personal belief, one during the Andal Invasion? What are you thoughts on this topic?
It could have been won if Stannis had given the command of the fleet to Davos instead of Imry Florent. The latter was the main responsible of directly sending Stannis fleet into Tyrion trap and not using well Salladhor Saan fleet during the attack. However its also true that Tywin force arrived just on time to avoid the inevitable victory of Stannis over Tyrion defenses. If Edmure hadnt delayed the advance of Tywin force through the Riverlands, the relief force would have arrived a few days later after the battle of the Blackwater
Stannis could have won and was winning it was just the imp delaying his army to buy time, tbh tyrion is a very good commander and doesn’t get enough respect for his feats at blackwater
@@maxtomlinson8134 He tried his best of course ,and in real life would've probably lasted more time ,maybe even weeks He was a good Hand but not a great general ,maybe he should've keep his man inside the walls, remain in defense
Forget about bringing Melisandre to the blackwater. Bring Patchface. Way more powerful, way better clairvoyance, way more experienced with wrecked ships.
The whole Lannisters remaining in power required so many specific things to happen. First Renly had to abandon all concept of inheritance law (and why would anyone join him with such a precedent) amd rebel, instead of realising he would have been in line to the throne anyway with Stannis only having Shireeen. Then Stannis has to ignore Ned him being an important ally.
To be fair, inheritance law was going out the window. The last king crowned was Robert, who yes had a real tenuous claim by law but basically just was crowned cause he won the war. Renly could have easily done the same thing if he won, especially since his legal claim is actually pretty strong once Joffery and co and Stannis are dealt with (either willingly abdicate or killed). As far why would anyone support him, he had the support of the largest kingdom in the Reach, which also has influence by producing food for the other kingdoms, and at least half (if not more) of the storm lands, an area known for being pretty military inclined. I do agree he would have been better off supporting his brother and claiming the throne after his death (assuming Stannis didn’t have another child before then), but he definitely could have justified his kingship if he’d won.
He may have won in a sense that the forces united against him will never stand along side each other like they did against him ever again. The Tyrells, Littlefinger, Tywin, Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey came together for one defence but the majority of them are dead while Stannis has gained forces and safe terrain. The real question is if Stannis will be derailed from fortifying the North and restablishing Stark rule in favour of retaking Storms End in which case he engages a whole new enemy. Stannis gains more from a loss while in his place other lords fracture and perish. Once his Navy reemerges and adds the Manderly fleet Stannis stands to gain naval supremacy of Westeros as the Crowns final strength is weakened while fighting Euron in the South.
You point out that Stannis waited months to declare his Kingship because he was cautious. So, why would a cautious man attempt an amphibious landing on a narrow riverbank to attack manned and fortified walls? It seems the battle plan should have been to use his naval superiority to clear the bay and river of enemy ships, then ferry his entire army across the Blackwater (or initiate landings upriver to outflank enemy positions), and use his ships to blockade King's Landing. He would then attack the city from the north or lay seige. Also, he should attack and then land at Rosby and Duskendale. From Rosby march west to the Kingsroad and cut off any relief to King's Landing from the north or west. However, this would be easier if Tywin's army still thought Stannis's attack would be amphibious and Tywin's army still went that way and they were inside the beseiged city needing to break out rather than still be in the open field where their numbers would prevail.
My guess is he knew he didn’t have much time to take the city before Twyin would arrive to try and lift the siege, which was accurate as they arrived mid assault. He was likely uncertain if he had the forces to take Twyin in open ground (and definitely wouldn’t be able to once the Tyrell’s joined the Lannister’s. The only safe option would be to leave the area entirely and hope he could outrun his opponents. However even if they do get away, they’ve not done anything to actually win the war. Instead he went for the risky plan that, if it went according to plan, would possibly win him the war. Had he succeeded in taken the city, Joffery and Tommen would be captured or dead (as it was Tommen would definitely be dead as his mother was going to poison him if the city fell). Twyin would arrive to find his grandsons dead, along with their claim to the throne (I think under their inheritance laws, Stannis would be crowned king over Marcella). Twyins legitimacy would be basically gone. Tyrell’s support would likely go since the bargaining chip of making Margery queen is gone, while Stannis could potentially still marry his daughter to one of the boys. Even if they do carry on fighting, Stannis’ forces would be inside a fortified city instead of open field, giving them a better chance of beating them back. And despite things like the chain, the plan nearly paid off. The city was quite close to falling and if Twyin’s armies didn’t arrive as quickly as they did (partly because Robb fucked up by not telling Edmure the plan, so Edmure stopping Twyin crossing a river and marching the wrong way for a couple days) then it would have fallen. Stannis took a risky shot at winning the war rather then running away, which would achieve nothing and at best cost him time and money (remember Stannis was using an awful lot of sell swords in his original army) and at worst would lead to the same outcome of his land forces being devastated.
@@finlayames6216 I don't necessarily disagree that Stannis needed to take a risk or 2, and still get lucky, to win and keep the throne, the entire plan to sail into Blackwater Bay belies In Deep Geeks's claim that Stannis is cautious.
If the imp hadn't used wildfire and Imry Florent didn't sail all of the King's forces into the bay, he would've taken the city before the Lannister and Tyrell host arrived. He would have Cersei, Tyrion, Tommen and Joffrey (as well as Sansa) in his custody. Even with a force of 80000, a defending force of 16-17000 experienced soldiers with an experience battle commander would've repaired the damage done during the conquest and held onto KL. Then, he would've ransomed the imp and maybe Cersei for a declaration of fealty. Joffrey would have to burn, and Tommen mayhaps exiled or kept as a hostage as done with Theon. Tywin would'nt risk the death of two Lannisters and King Stannis has experience in siege warfare. He would've then dealt with Robb Stark, demanding fealty in exchange for Sansa, which he would've done. It was Tyrion and Cersei's cunning which won the throne for the Lannisters, if not, House Baratheon would've won the game of thrones definitively.
Nice but NO It was not Cersei or Tyrion, this what they tell you in their POV if you read the books , or if you only watch the movie you dont know how big was really the battle Even if he take the city , he would not have Tommen because he îs not in Kings Landing , or Cersei because she will rather killed herself, or Tyrion because he will die either fighting or betrayed by Ser Mandon , Sansa maybe ,the only real hostage will be Joffrey but Tywin will not negociate for him ,especially when he has Tommen Stannis may resist în the city a month, but he will be forced to flee at sea , this isnt Storm's End with 500 soliders ,this is a city of 500k people who already had food crisis
Renly screwed them all by dragging his heels and slowly marching on KL. Cat had seen that herself noting it could have been all over long before if he’d taken his huge force directly there. Stannis could shadow baby him there of course but his paltry force would never have taken the city if there had been much of one if they’d resisted. Far more likely the tiny force of Gold Cloaks would have let Renly’s host in. Stannis and Tywin would have been far too late. Renly would have expensive hostages in Sansa, Cersei, Tyrion, etc, to negotiate peace.
Mel burned an Eagle out of the Sky by internal combustion. That is insanely powerful but she was at the Wall, I don't think you could underestimate her presence in this battle.
Now you have to ask, could 20,000 of Stanis' veterans (at least I think most of them were veterans or at the very least experienced soldiers) with Stanis commanding them hold the outer walls against 70,000 lanister recruits and whatever they Tyrells brought. If stanis had better scouts and a better navel commander that might have turned the tide.
GRRM tries to keep the story very realistic but he has clear limits, he doesn’t like to remove many chess pieces at once. If Stannis had taken the castle then all the POV characters in there would’ve been killed, and Stannis and his forces would’ve been killed by the arriving Lannisters
Maybe had Lord Edmure not attacked Lord Tywin at Stone Mill, maybe Stannis might have won Tyrion use of wild fire at Blackwater and trapping Stannis fleet was devastating.
Thanks Robert! Love a song of ice and fire and you're break downs are so much more enjoyable than most. Personally can't stand that lightbringer guy, just sayin. Glad you're here doin your thing.
Man, Im no military expert, but attacking a heavily fortified position, like a castle fortress is almost always, always a bad idea, unless you can get them to hole up. Then you lay seige to it for months until they give up or starve. Attacking by sea, you cant cut off the city's supply lines. Thats why Tywin was able to get to King's Landing to provide reinforcements.
in this case it was a poorly timed worthwhile scarfice, stannis's attack on king's landing was successful, and they where about to breach the walls and get into the city, it's just tyrion's efforts bought time for the city and stanni's plan wasn't good as it should have been
If Stannis had taken King's Landing earlier, Renly would still have come to besiege him. Would Stannis have killed Joffrey or simply deposed him and accused Cersei only of betrayal? His handling of Robert's royal family could have somewhat weighed on Tywin's behaviour but a Lannister alliance with Renly would have been likely for the sake of the family name. Robb Stark would have sided with Stannis before he was made king in the North to get his sisters back so that conflict would not have occurred. Their joined forces would still have been inferior to Renly's & Tywin's combined so Stannis would have killed Renly, with the same effect on the Lords of the Stormlands. Assuming Joffrey and Tommen captive, a marriage alliance could still have been promised to Margaery Tyrell but at this point a wedding of Loras to Shireen could have looked just as interesting. Except Loras would have wanted revenge, so the Tyrells could have played both sides and used Loras as a Trojan horse.
I was rewatching your Season 8 reviews and they seemed very charitable. Do you stand by those views or have they changed in retrospect? It may be worth doing a video revisiting the ending and suggesting how it may have worked better
I feel like given the size of his force he should’ve sent multiple attacks. Or maybe sent the main force to the black gate while sending a few thousand men with davos on a stealth flanking mission with some grappling hooks and attacked from the other side.
If he hadn't have let Melisandre kill Renley, Tywin would not have had the army to defeat him. His biggest mistake here was killing Renley - thoigh of course Renley betrayed his brother, with his support the whole thing would have been done pretty quickly and then they would just be waiting for Dany
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Yes, by sending ships to scout ahead, as he was advised.
Also, he should've had scouts and/or defensive battlements to protect the siege line so he would know Tywin was coming.
Wasn't that mistake made by Imry Florent? I thought there was a breakdown in the chain of command because of Selyse and the Florents being given undue power, and the admiralty was making its own decisions without Stannis' input. Granted, he's still king and it's still ultimately his responsibility, but there are strange extenuating factors in Westeros when your wife's family holds a lot of your military power (see: Cersei Lannister).
@@LevacqueEspecially when the wife comes with swords!
@@Levacque It was a mistake made by Imry Florent, yes. IIRC Davos advised him to send forward reconnaissance and scouting ships forward into the rush, but because of a storm holding up the fleet along the coast of the Stormlands, it had arrived somewhat late and so Imry Florent, fearing for consequences if he took any longer to enter the Rush to ferry the army across, refused to send in scouts, sailing the fleet directly into the trap.
@@pax6833to be fair his scouts kept getting killed by Tyrion's tribesmen and while digging earthworks would have been wise, if they thought Tywin was coming it would have been from out of the river lands, not the reach. No one knew about the Tyrell alliance
"create another shadow baby" is still such a wild sentence to hear
Had this happened he literally would have died of old age from it sucking the last life from his feeble body 😢😢😢
@@bennett420316 it would have been better if he had a magic fleet pop into existence because everyone forgot he had more ships.
Thanks for that Uron
@@kineticstar Euron? He only sunk the Lannister fleet. I don't understand your comparison
@@bennett420316sorry the auto correction adjusted the name.
I referring to the show. The fleet that Dani forgot.
@@bennett420316 Ironborn names are almost Meereen level with the -on and -thon names.
3:38 imagine watching her part the flames like moses for Stannis? Moral would drop like a rock on Tyrions side
That would've been so awesome to have seen
In regards to the battle of blackwater itself, the main thing that comes to mind for me is that Stanis should probably have had better reconnaissance, a huge army took him from the back and he had no idea they were coming.
Tyrions clanmen killed a lot of his scouts in the Kingswood
with Tywin's forces he could afford to send out a massive net to catch spies. i don't think that would have helped.
@@defrary5569 when was this, its been a while since i saw/read the novel.
@@takumi2023 i dont know exactly, obviously somewhere in acoc
I really should read the novels, but the larger part of me wants to wait for GRRM to finish the series so that I'm not left hanging for the next quarter of my life.
When Stannis changed his coat of arms, he should have adopted the motto "I Didn't Hear No Bell"
Lol Fr
The battle of Blackwater has one of my favourite descriptions:
A sellsword stepped up beside him. “We been out. Three times. Half our men are killed or hurt. Wildfire bursting all around us, horses screaming like men and men like horses - "
Tyrek Lannister is a horse: confirmed.
@@clownpendotfart goodamnit glimbo
This is the true greatness of GRRM and ASoIF. The fact that we see that events were not inevitable, but also understand why they turned out this way due to the personality and character of the people involeved.
That is exactly how I feel with real life history
@@gaghhuh2943as a high school history teacher, this is largely my approach
@gaghhuh2943 I am reading a historical book, that almost reads like a (fantasy) novel, and it's crazy how true to actual history GRRM made the events, random deaths, mad kings, twists and turns, and events coused by the simplest of reasons. The only non accurate thing is all the characters having unique names. Boy nobles and royals are not original with names.
@@Zwijger Yeah grrm initially wanted the names to be accurate too but then he realized how confusing it would be. I wish history was as considerate as he is.
But larping aside, Stannis had the best smuggler in Westeros on his team. He could have sent Davos in under black sail and muffled oar to scout the defences of the enemy. Davos has infiltrated through fortified areas before and he could have at least inspected the winch towers. Then Stannis could have landed his men further down, then advance along the shore or assaulted the walls. Either way it would have prevented the ships from being boxed in.
He would never send Davos under black sail, because one good deed doesn't erase a bad one, he wouldn't send him as basically a pirate. That's the reason he cut Davos' fingertips to begin with, because he was a smuggler. Had he done that, he would've have to cut his own.
@@rottenpotato4733 Remember he does send Davos and Mel to Storms End. That's part of why I like Stannis so much, he is capable of more nuanced actions than his reputation would perhaps let on. It is said he's inflexible and rigid, two traits that are in direct opposition to his ability as a tactical commander in battle. A good commander is one who goes in with a solid plan but also gives themselves options to remain unpredictable and use the inevitable chaos of battle to their advantage. It's actually a bit out of character for Stannis to sail directly into the maw of Blackwater rush but I suppose he figured he would win the walls, which he would have, if LF hadn't "out-unpredictabled' him with the whole "Renley' shade" caper.
@@rottenpotato4733 More importantly, there wouldn't be a need to send Davos. If all you need to do is scout a well populated city, and the river it sets on, you probably already have spies inside the city walls. Hiding in plain sight.
@@ThommyofThenn But was Davos under a black flag during the shadow baby scene? Honestly, maybe he was, I just don't remember that being the case.
PS: I agree Stannis' reputation is highly exaggerated and that he's more flexible than people give him credit too. Even how they address it makes no sense, "he's iron, will break before he bends". That's not how iron works, iron bends.
@@rottenpotato4733 I too have considered that "he will break before bending" description. I'm no metallurgist or blacksmith so I'm not 100% here, but I might assume that the iron might become brittle when *cold* enough...or perhaps when heated by fire (R'hllor) the "metal" could bend. Doesn't fully make sense as Stannis was skilled at manoeuvre warfare before ever meeting Mel but I'm certain there must be more to the iron Stannis/temperature metaphor. Please add on if you'd like.
Anyway,
Sorry about working backwards, just a habit for me. On the subject of black sails, I don't recall if he has a literal black coloured sail when sneaking into SE but it's either that or the hull of the boat itself is painted. I have the books right here so I'll take a gander. Thanks for the thoughtful reply my friend 🤓🗡🔥💓
One note of correction, Robb indirectly caused Stannis's defeat because he did not share his strategy with his chief commanders. By not briefing Edmure, Robb inadvertently caused Tywin to be held long enough for the messenger to inform him of the moves against the Capital. Even had Stannis agreed to tolerate Robb's treason instead of demanding fealty(and there was no reason for him to do so) Robb likely would have still made this mistake due to his inexperience in overall command.
And then robb blames Edmure
@@MrMustache-yn4zm exactly when the fault lies with the Commander in Chief for not conveying both clear orders and the wider reasons for them to a commander in charge of THE key part of said plan.
Rob was a tactical genius but he had a major problem of not properly using or trusting his commanders with his plans. He trusted people based on personal feeling more than their position in his hierarchy. Edmure got the worst of that as he was operating with half the picture AND is basically the second most important person in the North/Riverlands alliance. He is de facto lord paramount of the Riverlands and so should be Rob's number 2. Sadly Rob prefers to trust northerners he knows over someone who (possibly influenced by his mother's opinions) he sees as less capable than he is.
None of these are stupid. Rob is trusting people he knows and feels he can rely on. And Edmure's position at the start was poor, though nobody could probably have done much better. But they cause his downfall in his campaign almost as much as his decisions regarding the Karstarks and Freys. Of course the Karstark decision in the show is one I personally think right, but it was a major factor in him losing the war.
@@neodigremo Robb is overrated tbh, his whole plan to ambush Tywin's army in the westerlands is really a terrible idea
@@neodigremo Robb was a brilliant tactician, but an abysmal strategist. His inexperience showed primarily when it came to any long term decisions outside of an immediate battlefield situation.
Robb firstly went along with the Northern secession despite this being explicitly against what his father had wanted, which while it made him more popular in the short run, it highlights just how much sway his lords held over his decisions. His choice to do this had the consequences of alienating the Baratheon brothers. Had Robb remained a Lord he could have allied more easily with either Stannis or Renly.
Secondly, Robb was uneasy around Roose Bolton, so he constantly assigned him to positions away from his own, which gave Bolton a large degree of autonomy he otherwise wouldn't have enjoyed had he been kept closer.
Thirdly, Robb led from the front, which while brave, often caused him to lose larger strategic command, placed himself in significant danger of injury and death, which when it did happen at the Crag, paralyzed his army for the duration of his recovery.
Fourthly, Robb was young and impulsive, this led to his tryst with Westerling, he then felt he was honor bound to marry her, despite the obvious long term consequences of that choice.
Fifth, Robb constantly made promises and commitments to achieve tactical victories without considering the long term strategic consequences. Breaking his pact with the Freys cost him 4,000 soldiers and a direct line of communication. His execution of Karstark instead of placing him as a hostage and then recalling Karstark's men cost him yet more.
Sixth, Robb's complete ignoring of Balon's historic grudge against the North and the long term consequences if Balon or Theon don't do what he wants blinds him to the Iron Born invasion. To put it bluntly, he trusted a House who's motto literally translates to, "We'll steal your stuff!"
Finally, we come to Robb's decision(or oversight) with not informing Edmure about his plan to lure Tywin away from the Riverlands. This had the direct result of utterly destroying the one chance Robb had of destabilizing the Lannisters. Even Robb's plan was to achieve the short term tactical advantage over the Lannisters, while ignoring that whoever won the battle of the Blackwater would become the dominant power. If Tywin's side wins, the threats to the south are quashed and he can concentrate on the North, if Stannis won, a similar outcome would have come about and then Stannis would have been able to strike North. Either way, Robb's "plan" ignores the long term consequences in favor of short term gain.
All of these were done with short term tactical gains in mind, which ignored the larger strategic situation and consequences.
"What if Stannis Won the battle of blackwater" Could be an interesting video
Fewer enemies.
Especially given the possible direction of Stannis not turning north, so rob would have to do that
I wanted this instead
what would happen? Easy he would conquer the city and than either reach and kill Jofrey than wait for being killed by Tywin or he would not even reach Jofrey and he would die in Kings Landing anyway, and some time later the King Beyond the Wall would reach over the Wall and wreck havok in the North
@@PiscatorLager I imagine if Stannis held Kings Landing, the Freys and Boltons wouldn’t have betrayed Rob
In ASOIAF there’s always a thousand ways things could’ve turned out differently. The whole story is like an atom. Add or remove one little piece and everything changes.
Yep-it is ALWAYS about The Choice.
Yeah like Arya giving Jaqen the name of Tywin
Stannis had a smuggler for a right hand man but didn’t use him to scout out it where his fleet would land.
I believe that choice wasn’t made by Stannis, but his brother in law (who was in charge of the fleet) and was because a storm had delayed their arrival.
Davos made the suggestion, but Davos wasn't the fleet commander, some noble was, and highborn dipshits being highborn dipshits, ignored Davos' advice because Davos wasn't born a noble.
Stannis is a lot like Ned - he refuses to engage in certain aspects of the game - he won't lie to forge an alliance with Robb with the intent to deal with him later, he won't accuse the Lannister children of being illegitimate without proof.
He understands that he *could* do these things, but he doesn't. And then when he doesn't, when he does the right thing, he gets into even deeper trouble, and is forced to confront another troubling "hard way vs easy way" situation.
I'd love to know if he can keep his principles when things get truly ugly freezing outside winterfell, or if he allows Melissandre to seduce him into breaking them.
I think he's going to die an honorable man, like Ned. So far, the story hasn't been kind to honorable, stubborn leaders.
"your grace, hundreds will die!"
"Thousands..
COME WITH ME AND TAKE THIS CITY!"
What he should have done is the moment he heard about Eddard Starks death he should have sent a letter to all the lords in the seven kingdoms ,explainig why Cersei's children are bastards ,
in the books Robb didn't know joffrey was a bastard and didn't want to support Stannis because he looked like a self serving man trying to get power for himself,
Thus Robb would be more willing to work with Stannis
The other thing Stannis should have done is attack kingslanding imediatley since the garrison was smaller it was poorly and Tyrion hadn't arrived jet, and he should have used the antler men who were Stannis supporters to bribe members of the city watch to open the gates once he arrived
Stannis didn't have nearly enough men to attack King's Landing before he killed Renly. Stannis likely had no more than 5000 men, while the gold cloaks alone had like 6000, with at least 1500 of those truly being reliable, the rest being mostly recent hires. It shouldn't be too hard for 1500 troops to defend a walled city (or worst case even just the red keep), against 5000. Heck, Stannis would have a tough time even trying to enforce a blockade of the city, surrounding it and cutting off supply to starve the whole population out.
As for bribing his way in, he is not really the kind of guy to resort to those tactics.
@@Michaelonyoutub like i said he should have bribed members of the city watch to open the mudd gate and considering how corrupted the watch was it wouldn't be to hard.
4:12 you are forgetting in this hypothetical an important detail. If Stannis somehow had taken King's Landing, He would have had Cersei, her children and Tyrion in his custody. Which gives him leverage over Tywin. And Sansa, which gives him leverage over the northerners. Tywin would not have dared to attack King's Landing even with the Tyrells at his back. It would have been the end of his house.
He could also leverage the fact the Ned Stark took up arms to secure the throne for Stannis and for Robb and the North to act against Stannis by proclaiming independence would be no different than what the Lannisters did you Ned.
That's if Cersei didn't kill herself and her children before being taken into custody. Wasn't that her plan? At least for Tommen and Myrcella? And Stannis would kill Joffrey on principle as the rival claimant/usurper. That leaves Tyrion, and I am not sure how much leverage that would be for Tywin... especially with Jaime away and definitely not joining Stannis' Kingsguard (interesting question, though would Jaime insist on staying to obey his vows and would Stannis let him? Or would Jaime finally join his father fully without Cersei around and as a revenge? Where exactly was Jaime at that moment in time?). Stannis would have Sansa to barter with Robb and members of other families to exchange for fealty though.
@@LusiaEyre Good points. But the question is if the Tyrells would still support a faction that has lost their claimant to the throne. The possibility of marrying Margery off to Joffrey was the main reason for siding with the Lennisters over anyone else.
@faketheo3432 I doubt the Tyrells would support Tywin without the option of Margaery becoming Queen. Unless he offers them Jaime and the future as the Lady of the Rock? Of course, if Jaime lives and joins his father to finally be his heir and avenge Cersei. Otherwise, the Tyrells would be better off going home and waiting for dust to settle. Stannis has only a daughter, and a potential male heir is bound to emerge even as an unofficial backup. So they would keep Margaery free to push on that guy :) Stannis might not like them, though, for siding with the Lannisters (but I don't think he would go against them so soon and before consolidating power). He might keep Margaery at court as a lady companion to his Queen and daughter as a hostage of sorts?
@@faketheo3432technically it wouldn’t be the end of his house, there’s plenty of other Lannister’s running about including his brother. It could be the end of his line, which Twyin would likely see is nearly just as bad. That is assuming that Jamie didn’t renounce his oath and become Twyins heir, which did always seem to be Twyin’s preferred option. I agree he’d likely not want to risk the hostages while Jamie was still in the wind, I do wonder if Jamie had managed to meet up with his father before the siege, wether Twyin might consider cutting his loses and using that to persuade Jamie to come back to him.
One thing that wasn’t mentioned is that Melisandre may have inadvertently led Stannis astray with a misreading of a prophecy. Stannis tells Davos that Melisandre saw him being defeated by Renly’s forces at King’s Landing if he went straight there. So she councils him to first go to Storm’s End to gain more men for army. But what’s implied later on is that she actually saw the Battle of the Blackwater in her fires. What she thought was Renly leading his forces to victory over Stannis was most likely just Tywin, Ser Loras and his brother (dressed in Renly’s armor) leading their forces against Stannis.
If Stannis had gone to King’s Landing sooner; he most likely would’ve taken the city. Even Tyrion keeps hoping that Stannis will take longer to reach the city to give him enough time to strengthen it’s defenses. Otherwise, he knows that Stannis will definitely take the city.
I think you’re right about Melisandre’s vision BUT if Stannis had gone straight to King’s Landing with only his few initial supporters, Renly and his much larger army would have trapped Stannis there with his few supporters and he would’ve lost anyway. Going after Renly first is how Stannis acquired his army in the first place.
I will watch your ASOIAF videos for the next 20 years, even if a new book never comes.
He would have if not for the low cunning and dishonourable tricks by the demon of Lannister. Praise the Lord of Light!
One Realm, One God, One King!
@@IranahyeNotVTEC A Flaming Heart! Stannis! Stannis King!
The night is dark and full of terrors
I think he could have won if he did something more conservative. He kind of went into a trap head first.
But also how about negotiating with Renley instead of wasting forces and time so he had a larger host.
It's really on his brother Robert though he let the throne go to heck.
The Battle of Blackwater was easily winnable even on the face of it. If Stannis gets his army into King's Landing before Tywin shows up, Stannis is in a commanding position. Joffrey and the remnants of the Lannisters would hole up in the keep, but they would not hold out long. Stannis would have the advantage of the city's battlements, minus the weak point at the Mud Gate (which could possibly be doubly covered by Stannis' remaining ships).
Tywin would be *forced* into an immediate assault, because if Stannis kills or captures Joffrey and the rest of the succession, the war is an instant loss for him. This would put his army at a massive disadvantage, even despite overwhelming superiority of numbers. Stannis could easily win.
A good example of a similar battle would be Actium, although that is quite different in smaller details.
So all he would need to do is have better reconnaissance (both of the countryside and the river) and conduct his attack more cautiously to limit losses, then stick to the original plan and overwhelm the small defending forces in King's Landing. Occupy the city, then swing around to man the battlements against Tywin. Repell/outlast Tywin until the Keep is starved into surrender or stormed.
probably not. tywin's not stupid, he knows if king's landing is lost (and his grandchildren too) the war isn't worth continuing, his goal likely would be to secure a peace that favours house lannister as much as possible and bend the knee
Even if Stannis took the city before Tywin and the Tyrrells arrived, and even if he was able to defend the walls from them, he would find a capital without food or gold, the Tyrells would prevent anyfood coming from land from the South and food wouldn't come from the Riverlands that are burning and under the control of Robb unless Stannis accepts Northern independence wich is not likely in the short term, he would have lost most of his fleet, and without ships or money he can bring food and is lost the Lannisters would eventually find Tommen and marry him to Margeary, if Tywin is smart he might offer Robb a truce maybe even allow for independence, all to prevent Robb kneeling to Stannis,asking only for Robb to abandon the westerlands, all Tywin has to do is wait for Robb to go to the Twins on his way to the North for the Red Wedding to Happen, then wait for Stannis to die, Stannis needed Robb to win from the begining,.
The problem with that is that by taking the city, he has Joffrey. The Tyrells only agreed to join up with Tywin because of the betrothal between Joffrey and Margaery. With that effectively neutralized, the Tyrells can easily dip out...or stab Tywin in the back and put them back to Highgarden and the drawing board.
Taking Joffrey voids all of those problems, because Stannis immediately wins politically. He can demand any concession from Tywin.
@@sertorrhenclegane While that's true Olena new about Joffrey's cruelty already at bitterbridge, and Sansa got the necklace as soon as the blackwater was over so they were already thinking on switching Joffrey for Tommen, then there os rhe issue that Stannis hates them, having backed his brother and rhen the Lannisters wluld make stannis hate them more and Stannis wife is a Florent who believe themselves to have a claim to highgarden and Stannis has spokrn in favor of that claim.
@@davidbadillomirete8226 I think that only works if you trust Littlefinger is telling the truth that he had wheels within wheels when dealing with the Tyrells and being a part of their plot from start and he wasn't just lying to Sansa. Considering that he's a liar and manipulator, I can easily see that being the case and the audience just goes along with it because it always feels as if he's ahead of the game based on his confidence alone.
As for Stannis, I don't recall him actually speaking in favor for the Florents' claim to Highgarden. If anything, he seemed more than ready to punish Alester Florent once he had the throne for initially siding with Renly. He only allowed him and the other Florents to rise as high as they have out of political pragmatism as they are (were) the richest and most powerful of his supporters.
While I can see him lopping off Mace's head, I don't see him doing the same to the rest of the family. I see him taking lands and possibly taking titles and giving them to men that he considers loyal, in the vein of Daeron II after the first Blackfyre Rebellion, but I don't see them losing Highgarden or much else. I can see him just never letting them be a part of the governance of the realm. For a family that ambitious, that's punishment enough.
@@davidbadillomirete8226it’s been a while since I read the books, but wasn’t Tommen also in kings landing? So Stannis would also have him held hostage (assuming Cersi didn’t poison him with herself like she was planning too). Depending on the outcome, the only of “Robert’s” children left would be Marcella, who Tyrion had shipped down to Dorne and already has a marriage lied up. So there wouldn’t be a spot on the throne to tempt the Tyrell’s. At which point, do they even decide to support the Lannisters, or do they use the same strategy they used in Roberts rebellion of trying to sit out the rest of the mess and not piss anyone off more then they have.
Great as always, Robert!
I'll be rewatching your excellent Doctor Who retrospective before the new series starts. Hope we get more of that!
Liked this before even watching it because in deep geek doesn’t miss
The series of events leading to where they led up until the end of book 5 is such a fragile construct. Many things could have gone different and the outcome would be nothing we could recognize anymore.
Just consistently good content, thanks In Deep Geek!
The actual mistake that cost Stannis the victory isn't his own, but one of Robb's. I'd argue Robb's single biggest mistake, bigger than breaking the Frey marriage alliance: not telling Edmure the plan.
Tywin was only able to form his alliance with Mace & make for King's landing because Edmure delayed his forces from pursuing Robb into the Westerlands. Thing is, Robb *wanted* Tywin to pursue him; Robb had the advantage on the field, even on Lannister home territory, & Tywin would have been trapped between the Northern army & Riverrun. But Robb didn't explain this to Edmure, he just told him to "hold Riverrun" & trustes that the lack of further elaboration would be enough, not counting on Edmure showing some initiative at the worst possible time.
Take that mistake away & even if Robb still breaks the Frey alliance, the whole complexion of the war changes. The Tyrells don't get involved, Stannis takes King's Landing & kills or captures the Lannister version of the Royal family.
Robb either defeats Tywin on the field or- crazy idea - Tywin actually sues for peace with the Starks to focus on Stannis. Might depend on whether or not Tomen escapes alive & Tywin still has a dog in the fight for the throne.
Re: Robb not telling Edmure
Agree. If Robb's master plan was to lure Tywin west, then he should have told his field commanders (i.e., Edmure) to allow Tywin's army to pursue unmolested. When Edmure prevents the crossing, Tywin changes strategy and withdraws to the SE, to Harrenhal.
robb is literally the reason why robb stark was killed, the red wedding literally never happens unless robb decides to be retarded and blow up the alliance with the freys, just cause he wanted to clap some westerling girl
as for not telling edmure the plan, if he did tell him plan, then robb's army would be destroyed with himself and whoever else is there
Pretty sure Tommen is less likely to survive then Joffery, since Cersi was going to poison him as well as herself if the city fell. Joffery could survive if he surrenders and Stannis doesn’t want to kill him, a possibility since Joffery is still basically a child and Stannis tries to be a mostly moral man. Though given he killed his brother for the same crime (falsely claiming the throne) I’m not sure it’s likely.
@@finlayames6216 it's been a while but I couldn't remember if that was a show-only thing or not; in the books, I recalk Tyrion having Tommen captured & taken out of the city & to a crown loyalist castle specifically for insurance as he was the heir if Joffery died. Couldn't remember if Cersei got him back before the battle or not but I feel like not because she wasn't a pov character in the books at that point so we wouldn't have seen the near poisoning for dramatic effect.
Stannis and Robb were never allies because Stannis didnt want , he never asked Robb to trap Tywin anyway it was just Robb's new idea and it comes so fast that it wasnt well done
I was just rewatching the series and I would absolutely love to hear your theory on what Margaery Tyrell was planning for overcoming the high sparrow and the faith militant! Could make for a very interesting video!
This was a lot of fun. Ty for the content.
Robb and Stannis fighting the rest of the pretenders would be a fun scenario
Balon isn't a pretender and he's as much as a legit king as Robb was, ruling over his people.
We all know if brave Geoffrey wasn’t there to fight so gallantly that Stannis would have won
It just occurred to me that Stanis’ army very well could have had (should have?) prior knowledge of the chain. It was on both banks, with towers, and every blacksmith on the street of Steel was made to forge links or face punishment from the crown. A difficult secret to keep. It’s fun to imagine Stanis’ fleet, unbeknownst to the reader, using intel to somehow foil the or destroy the chain hinting at the tide turning in favour of the invaders. Of course they would still rush headlong into the maw of the Jade dragon. No one could write a word better about that trap. Anyway, a fun thought. Thanks Robert! ✌️🔥⚔️
So long as he was unable to stop Tywin and the Tyrells I don’t think he would have been able to pull out the win. Maybe if he had been able to attack earlier? I don’t see any other way to overcome that force led by that commander:
Tyrion's efforts bought time for the lannister-tyrell army to come and smoke stannis's army
If he did take the city, his best hope would be to try and buy off the Tyrell’s somehow. Both Joffery and Tommen would be hostages or dead (Tommen is especially likely to be dead since believe Cersi was planning to poison him if the battle was lost). It’s not likely either is surviving to take the throne in any case, so no making Margery queen. I’m which case the legal heir would be either Marcella or probably Stannis (depending how the succession laws, not sure who gets priority). If it’s Marcella, she’s already got a match so no Tyrell on the throne unless Twyin wants to piss off the Dornish (which is possible, but it’s a harder proposal to squash then Sansa’s was since Dorn is still technically loyal). So depends what else Twyin can offer them and if that is better the Tyrell’s swapping over to Stannis (since Twyin would be unlikely to be capable of beating the larger Tyrell army, especially if they have Stannis’ forces as well).
@@finlayames6216In the books Tommen is at castle Rosby during the battle
The last part of the video is so enlightening - maybe for Melisandre and her backing of Stannis never had anything to do with Stannis personally, but she knew she'd need an army in the North to protect Jon Snow from wildlings and the Others. Talk about 4-D chess!
Early Stannis is very different from late Stannis. Early on he's rigid, later on he just pretends to be. Davos is promoted every time he defies him, he does swaps at the wall, he listens to Jon, Theon and Asha are still alive. His daughter may burn but I think it will be an accident by the Nights Watch rather than Stannis doing it. He doesn't even seem to believe...
I'd be interested to see a "what if Stan is won" video
I think he would have won at the battle of the blackwater if he had Melisandra. She has the power to control fire. It would have been a good opportunity to showcase the power of the lord of light. To show the power of fire is greater than the power of the seven.
His pride was his ruin in that battle.
Ooooooh! Yess!
And to think we have JUST started watching it again with my wife xD
“Stannis has the personality of a lobster” was spot on
Imagine melisandre upon seeing the wildfire explosion smirking saying something like “The lord of light makes his presence known and he smiles upon us” then she does some magic shit and uses the fire to their advantage
By right!
It wasn't the Kings Gate it was the Mud-Gate that was weaker according to show lore anyway
Stannis didn’t need to win to win, he just needed to not fight. They take King’s Landing if they just park at the mouth and send a raven to the Northman. They just park on the kings road and starve out the city until the city people turns on the lannisters and kills them all. It wouldn’t even have taken any time, they were already basically starving
time was of the essence then, and judging how quickly the lannister-tyrell army was approaching if stannis sieged the city and digged in he and his army would have been completely wiped out unlike the majority of it in the books
In war, speed is life. This is doubly true if your force is the smaller one. A siege wasn't a practical solution for Stannis in that situation.
I didn't watch the show and it's been so long since I read the book I'm probably forgetting some details. But it sounds like he should have just encircled the city and lay siege to it.
With a new boy king on the throne it wouldn't take long for the populace of the city to rise up and do Stannis' work for him once they started to run out of food.
Twyin and the Tyrell’s literally arrive mid assault. Had Stannis waited, he’d still have lost to the far larger armies of the Reach and the Westerlands. Best case scenario, his fleet gets out and leaves the majority of his land forces to fight a rearguard, which is basically what happened anyway.
@@finlayames6216 Yeah see, I didn't even remember that until later in the video when he mentioned Tywin coming. But I made this comment before that. I think George R.R. Martin is going to wait til everyone forgets what happened in the books before he writes the next one.
@@kyleOWillFixIt Tbf that would be one of the best explanations for the delay I’ve heard.
I only saw the show, but in my opinion the moment he lost was when he started listening to the Mellisandre. If he was not so certain that his victory is certain, and if he had no magical tricks up his(her) sleeve (not-necessarily-sleeve), then he would be more likely to cooperate with Renly. Perhaps they would form a shaky alliance. Perhaps they would together try to avange their brother who got murdered. Mayhaps.
I think Renly was sure of his victory and thus unlikely to cooperate with Stannis, because Stan alienated himself from everyone with this new religion. It was easier to follow a charismatic and likable king over the grim guy from rock castle with foreign religion that burns your septons.
And...I think its no surprise that together both Beratheons would be two antlers of the stag that pierce the golden lion.
Stannis did win, he got the fuck out of there before season 6.
From a tactical point of view, sending scouting ships ahead to see what awaited them on the Blackwater Rush, rather than piling head long into a trap like that fool of a Florent did probably would have led to Stannis taking the City. However, how long he would have held it when the Lannister/Tyrell army arrived, with little provisions inside the walls is another matter. Sure Stannis is famous for holding out against a numerical stronger opponent at Storms End, but trying to fed 20/30k men along with the population of Kings Landing would have been a tall order even if Stannis still possessed superior naval forces for now. Strategically, however it was all moot. Once Renly was dead and the Stannis was unable to offer the Tyrells and alliance through marriage, which they probably wouldnt have entertained anyway, the Lannister/Tyrell pact was almost inevitable. Stannis needed his own ally in the field to tie up the Lannisters while he focused on taking, securing and then striking out from King's Landing himself.
Its important to note that when Robb was named King in the North, only Joffrey and Renly had declared themselves King. While his bannerman might have dismissed Stannis when proclaiming Robb King, he himself pointed out Renly couldnt come before Stannis in the line of succession. Robb's main concern was bending the knee to a Lannister King in all but name ( and in reality too) so its not beyond the realms of possibility that he could have agreed a pact with Stannis to work together in the field and sort line of succession once their common foe was defeated. Stannis' biggest problem was he thought all men owed him feality and he wasn't willing to compromise in order to put himself in a stronger position overall.
Well said
Renly had the Tyrells and the Starks. Stannis being stubborn gave him a well deserved defeat.
“Boom doom. Boom doom.”
I wonder if Dany might face a similar fate. She may take King's Landing but fail to hold it, or simply fail to take it. And her failure might change her, perhaps sending her north.
Awesome vid!!
Tecnically, Stannis' defeat was due to 2 factors:
1- Letting Melisandre at Storm's End instead taking her with him, where she could've warned him of Tyrion's trap and the Tyrell's alliance.
2- Edmure's interference in Robb's plan to trap Tywin, thanks to the former's "glory seeker" tendencies and the "poor comunication skills" from the later.
Edumure isn't to blame for Stannis losing or winning, the Tyrell army was coming anyways with or without Tywin, as for Melisandre coming, honestly I have no idea what would happen but magic does a lot in ASOIAF doesn't it?
@@maxtomlinson8134not really had Robb's plan worked he could destroy Tywin's main force or take the rock if it didn't. Either makes Tywin a horrible ally for the Tyrells who were neutral and could marry loras to Shireen to still secure power. Likely shireen would inherit with how old her mother was and her previous pregnancy issues.
@@SerfinBird Robb's plan was never going to work and if it was carried out his army and himself would have been killed, it doesn't matter if stannis or joffrey wins at blackwater, since they'd fight whatever remains of the north
@@maxtomlinson8134 He won every battle he fought. Tywin was so scared he had to plot to kill him at a wedding, Ned was also one of the great battle commanders of his time which clearly passed on to Rob. He defo would have demolished Tywin.
@@GhengisGoon he really wouldn’t
I would have loved to see Renly and Stannis working together, and making an alliance with Robb. It would have been better to make alliances quickly, and worry about northern independence later. It would have been a much shorter war, though, as Renly has the Tyrell's support, leaving the Lannisters with very little to make this an even fight.
If Melesadre foresaw the wildfire, and kept it from burning Stannis' ships, they may have taken the walls outside of the Red Keep, and held off Tywin's forces as they kept anyone from leaving the keep. Or if they could grab Cersei, force Tywin to withdraw his troops. Tommen would have been killed, though, and Cercei may have drank poison as well. Sansa would have become a ward of Stannis, which would have left her better off than a Lannister captive.
I think if Caitlyn Stark sided with Stannis like Rob Stark originally wanted, and both Rob and Stannis teamed up together, Rob could of drawn Tywin Lannister's army in the north like he originally planned at the same time as Stannis attacked Kings Landing, then the Lannister army wouldn't of reinforced Kings Landing meaning Stannis would of had a better chance of winning
The issue was, Robb had already been declared king in the north by his lords and Stannis wouldn’t accept that. The only way he’d ally with the north is if they renounced their independence, which would have been politically very difficult for Robb.
Lol I am pretty sure a Zerg sneak attack by stannis with his initial forces alone would have prevailed over KL. It would have definitely gotten Tywin to pull everything out the river lands but would still be a dicey situation (he would have the capital, likely any Lannister loyalist and a large fleet but not much else).
Yes, but also very much No. He could have taken King's Landing, probably just by sending scouts into the river instead of most of his fleet. So here I guess he wins the battle of Blackwater. But Tywins army will still arrive and besiege Stannis in the city, leaving Stannis to defend KL's while also laying siege to Cersi/Joffery holding up in the Red Keep. So the question would then be could Stannis somehow defeat Tywin's massive army besieging Kings Landing? I don't think so.
There's a crusader battle, the siege of Antioch I think, where the crusaders laid siege to the city and stormed it just before a Muslim relief army arrived and laid siege to them in turn. It doesn't go well for the crusaders though they do win in the end. The city was totally depleted of supplies, the gate and walls damaged from the Crusaders own attacks, the population was hostile to them and Muslim defenders were still holding up in the city's citadel. It drives the Crusaders to a desperate sally out of the city rather than starve to death, they take the field and win (this is the famous battle where the crusaders discover the "holy lance" and charge out in religious frenzy). So would Stannis have a holy lance moment? Maybe then, but otherwise no.
If Stannis could have just breached the castle, and Cersei drank the poison, the ENTIRE REALM would have dodged bullets. But then the story wouldn’t have been the same, at all.
Nothing prevents Stannis from doing reconnaissance and avoiding being trapped by the chain on the river or the Lannister army. He also knows this going in: he can't take and hold King's Landing without a quick decapitating strike, so any attack that doesn't try for this is a big mistake.
The plan was sound but could have been better
The chain was because his brother in law (who was commanding the fleet) didn’t want to wait as they’d be delayed by a storm.
As for Lannisters, once Stannis was at the city it was kinda too late. The Lannister/Tyrell’s were bearing down on him. They still would have been caught against the far larger army, regardless of if they were assaulting the city or prepping to siege. Stannis didn’t have the men to win a straight fight. His only other option would be to have the fleet take whatever they could to safety while the others tried to simply outrun the Lannister/Tryell host. Instead he went with the only option that might actually give him some kind of victory, a quick assault hoping to take the city, then when Twyin arrives he’d find Stannis entrenched in the city. Twyin might not even want to carry on the fight, since Cersi and Tommen would be dead to her poisoning them, Joffery would be dead or captured. Would Twyin even want to carry on the war, since the crown would fall either to Marcella down in Dorne or to Stannis, who was currently sitting on the iron throne. The Tyrell’s might even swap sides, since Marcella already has a match so no Tyrell on the throne that side, while Stannis might agree to marry his daughter to one of the Tyrell boys.
The main other scenario is the one pretty much laid out in the books. Here, Stannis acts slightly faster or Tywin slightly slower (a matter of hours) and takes the city before Tywin arrives. As he gets to the holdfast, a messenger comes out declaring their surrender, as Tommen, Joffrey, Cersei and Sansa (among others) have died of poison, which is soon verified.
When Tywin arrives, Stannis withdraws what forces he can into the city, and Tywin would hear the ringing of bells. Envoys would be sent out, and he'd learn that the king was killed by Cersei through use of poison. While skeptical, he would realize it's not like Stannis to lie about that, nor to actually use poison to kill the king, so I think he would demand to see the bodies, which Stannis would agree to, dissolving any uncertainty.
That changes the situation, as they've lost their cause to fight for. Stannis is now the last male Baratheon, with only Myrcella (under Dornish law) a possible rival claimant, and Robb's title a matter of contention. But Stannis is widely viewed as a jerk, conspiring with sorcery, a heretic, kingslayer and kinslayer, so it'll take a long time before he is able to force any matter. In this time, the North will negotiate a settlement - probably after the Dornish model.
Tywin meanwhile has lost three scions, and the other three are [effectively] hostages. I expect he'll focus his efforts on the one thing he can effect: finishing the war in the Riverlands, saving his family's honor and recovering Jaime, who will inevitably be fired from the Kingsguard by Stannis. Tywin's forces are now limited to the depleted forces of the Westerlands, with no likely allies, against two great houses with considerable strength. Being a formidable strategist, I think he'll force another battle against Edmure before Robb can return, cuts off his retreat and forces a capture of Riverrun, including Hoster and Catelyn.
This would be a good basis for peace as Robb returns. Hostages will be exchanged, Riverrun will offer concessions to satisfy the honor of the Lannisters, and frankly, both depleted sides very much need peace, to deal with the Ironborn (also an old threat to the Lannisters) and whatever Stannis might be up to.
Bolton (who holds Jaime) would consider his options here. Had Robb been captured, he might have made a deal, but now his best card is probably raising his station for recapturing the Kingslayer. Conspiring with Tywin has nothing really to offer. The Freys also have little leverage aside from snatching Edmure as a prize.
In the aftermath, I think peace will mostly be restored, aside from the usual squabbles. However, Stannis' reign will always be tenuous. Many rebellions will ensue, though none gain strength because they offer no legitimate heir. That all changes when Stannis wants to make Shireen his proper heir, therefore declaring women equal in the inheritance. Originally this also bestows Storm's End to Myrcella (and makes her heir to Casterly Rock), but in the eyes of most, that also makes her the heir to King Joffrey. Though she, Trystane and Doran don't openly join any such sentiments, it will nonetheless be enough to cause Stannis' downfall as there's now an alternative to unite behind.
Tommen is not in KL during the battle (in the books ) he was at castle Rosby , so in case that the city will fall Twin can continue the war
@@flavius5722 You're right, thanks for the reminder!
Not sure whether Stannis knew that?
Still major progress, but yes, that would complicate things.
@@sorsocksfake He didnt, this was the idea of Tyrion and lord Rosby was very loyal to them
Landing by sea was generally pretty dumb.
They could have just landed and made a defensible beach head, then seige the city.
They gave up the movement speed of yheir boats to go to a known spot where the defenders were already there
Yeah a siege, with fortifications against a relief force, is the way to go. The city had no love for joffery and cersei, if stannis portrayed himself as a liberator the city would likely mutiny and open the gates. The red keep might resist longer but once stannis entered the city walls it would be impossible for twin to dig him out.
It wasn't dumb, it was just the plan wasn't as good as it should of been, and he was successful im almost storming the city, it's just tyrion's efforts to defend king's landing bought enough time for tywin to show up with the tyrells
"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless." The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead - " " - you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."
"We all know what my brother would do. Robert would gallop up to the gates of Winterfell alone, break them with his Warhammer, and ride through the rubble to slay Roose Bolton with his left hand and the Bastard with his right. I am not Robert. But we will march, and we will free Winterfell … or die in the attempt."
- Stannis Baratheon
ALL HAIL STANNIS BARATHEON! THE ONE TRUE KING OF WESTEROS! AND THE KING IN THE NORTH!!!
Even following the timeline we have, if he'd attacked King's Landing first and ignored Storm's End, he'd have won.
In my mind, the biggest missing piece from that part of the story is for Robb to send Stannis a letter when Robb was crowned, explaining that Robb was ONLY in rebellion against Joffrey, not Stannis. If that letter had been written, and successfully reached Stannis, they'd both have won. Having had a taste of kingship, Robb would have gratefully bent the knee to Stannis after Stannis captured King's Landing and Robb took out Tywin in the field.
Part of what I love about the books that doesn't get discussed much is that, just like in real life, we have so many visible outcomes and can play the "what if?" game so much. ASOIAF isn't just one story; it's many stories, including the one on the pages and dozens we can see between them.
I dont think Robb was only în rebelion to Jofrey, I think he was în rebelion to the institution of the Iron Throne itself , in less than 20 years 3 lords of the North were killed in Kings Landing : Robbs 's father ,uncle and grandfather , even if one of them was hand of the king
So no if Robb didnt bent the knee to Renly who made his claim to the throne public months before Stannis, he woudnt bent the knee to him
@@flavius5722 That's not how I read it. Granted, if I was in Robb's position I'd have done a lot of things differently (I'd never have accepted the crown in the first place), but Robb repeatedly makes it clear that he's only refusing to make peace with the Lannisters and the Greyjoys because they killed his relatives. He tried to make peace with Renly, although Renly was murdered before they could come to any terms. He never thought of a way to make peace with Stannis. We can surmise Stannis would've accepted peace with Robb as long as Robb demonstrated submission and loyalty, and since Stannis didn't kill any of his family I don't see why Robb would refuse to submit to Stannis's rule. The Starks value honor and fidelity to duty just as much as he does, and Robb would pretty quickly believe that Joffrey was illegitimate and Stannis was the lawful heir.
@@JervisGermane Yeah but I still think you dosent get my point
Its how Robb and his men see the situation ,why did Robb become king in the first place,why he dosent make peace , how they see Stannis :
The southerners don't respect us , they already killed 3 starks who werent guilty of anything
The Iron Throne is forcing us in wars we dont want
Robb is OUR leader , half Tully half Stark , brave and honorable
Stannis had told Catelyn that he see no difference betwen Robb and Jofrey
He cares only about his Throne not about our just cause
He has a chance to allied himself with us and he refuse
He had killed his own brother
This all that Robb and his men know about the Iron Throne and Stannis
The question is what should they belive that Stannis is better than the Mad King ,or Joffrey?
Before watching the video: Yes. Very yes.
I think a much more important question is "SHOULD Stannis have tried to take King's Landing?"
My answer would be frankly no. At least at this stage of the war. It is too hard to hold and nothing but a drain on resources in a war situation. You win the war and then take the capital not the other way round.
As virtue is necessary in a republic, and in a monarchy honor.
--Montesquieu
To maintain a feudal system and a monarchy, honor is essential. Stannis and Ned/Rob Starks represent this essential element, but ironically they have no chance at all in a messy, machiavellian game of thrones.
Could you do more witcher stuff? Not necessarily based on the tv show but the games or books
A 3.5 to 1 disadvantage against Tywin's 70,000 isn't too bad as long as he breached the city quickly and without too many losses. The walls are a force multiplier and the Baratheon troops are professional soldiers rather than peasants, also the Tyrell & Lannister force was also presumably moving fast so wouldn't have brought equipment for a siege.
If he had sent scouts ahead they would have reported back on the chain towers at the mouth of the river, they might not have known their purpose but a strategic commander like Stannis would know they'd be defensive in nature and would have them taken before moving in.
Having Cersei, Tyrion, and the royal family hostage would also greatly aid as if Tywin attacked then Stannis could have them all executed, thus permanently ending the Lannisters hopes of controlling the throne. From Tywin's perspective with one of his heirs in Robb's custody and the other's in Stannis's he'd have to withdraw or sue for peace.
There are a few of problems with this plan , its all right that you forget some minor details :
1) Stannis did sent scouts but those were killed by Tyrion' Vale clansmens hiding in the forest south of blacwater ,before the battle
2) Even if he takes the city , he would not have hostages ,Tyrion and Lancel were badly wounded and they only survived because they were carried to Pycelle, but if the city fall their biodies will be abandond in the chaos
Cersei would had killed herself, and most important Tommen is not in Kings Landing during the battle ( at least in the books ) so the only prisoner will be Jofrey but he cant be left alive and Tywin will rather have Tommen as king anyway
3) The city just suffer riots because of the lack of food ( a city of 500k people ) , even Stannis can hold it for a time , the population will revolt and his soliders will be weaker day by day
I think he should've been in KL where Ned was still Hand and Robert alive
Davos is who to look at for a different outcome. Davos KNEW the ships were sailing into a trap and Sunglass refused to listen to Davos. Stannis shud have put Davos in charge of his boats/fleet. The ONLY thing Stannis had to do to change it ALL, to WIN, was give Davos the lead on water.
Just a slight correction, Lord Sunglass was thrown into the dungeon for not wanting to support Stannis anymore after he burnt the sept at Dragonstone. He was burnt alive during the Battle of the Blackwater. It was a Florent who led the charge, Imry Florent, who also died
@muffingfx I have no idea why i said Sunglass wtf lol...but yeah, the guy who leads them right into that shit
I think he could have won the battle, but I imagine it would have gone down similar to Rhaenyra in the dance, with him being forced to abandon the capital, unless he somehow pulled the Tyrells or Starks in on his side.
Trying to win honorably instead of using every weapon available is the reason Stannis failed.
Also, I think it shows the difference between himself and Robert. Robert was lauded in stories, but the reality is he did anything to get what he wanted.
Imagine if Stannis had taken the Red Keep and seized Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey-with Tywin and the Tyrells right on his heels? Could he force terms?
Tywin would have made a deal with Stannis and bend the knee and the Tyrell’s would gomhome
@@maxtomlinson8134Nah , Cersei would had kill herself, Tyrion would have not survine the battle, and Tywin had Tommen as a replacement for Jofrey
To be honest, I think that the overall story could have worked out pretty much exactly the same if Stannis and Robb had allied. It might even add an extra element of tragedy to the story for Stannis because Tywin is still blocked from heading West, thus he allies with the Tyrells and arrives at King's Landing to defeat Stannis. Then Stannis retreats to Dragon Stone and shortly thereafter he finds out about Robb's murder at the Twins and the destruction of his army. In the end, the result is the same.
I always wished that Robb and Stannis had teamed up. Maybe by Robb having more of a prescience at the council that made him king and fully backing Stannis then, or perhaps by Stannis demanding that Robb bend the knee, and then two deciding to settle the dispute by having champions fight for them. But that second one is less likely in all honesty.
yeah problem is, once you are king its hard to bend the knee, also Rob was like what 16?
He rushed his war. I know Kings Landing is only a short boat ride from Dragonstone, but he could've taken a longer war campaign by taking all the forts, towns, and other cities in Crownlands surrounding Kings Landing. This would've shortened the provisions to Kings Landing and forced their armies to come out of their walls to reclaim lost territories.
Also, even if Stannis took King's landing, would he be able to hold it? Other armies would've arrived to siege him. Taking the main city right away early in the war is not a good idea. That's not how medieval wars were fought.
If you ask me… no. Sorry Stannis fans. As great as that character is, he did not make moves to secure himself help. He was not fast with it. He expected people to come to him, which was not going to happen. No amount of recon would have prevented the Tyrell/Lannister troops taking you in the back during the battle. He should have spent the time he had making allies with Robb Stark before the crown touched his head. He also should have had someone talk sense to Renly. The Battle of the Blackwater was lost before it started.
Here's a potential new topic for you to contemplate. I hope you do, because I'm honestly curious about your thoughts on it.
Old Nan began her story for Bran by saying 'The FIRST TIME the White Walkers came...' Doesn't this imply that the White Walkers came at least two times, maybe more? What if there had bee TWO Long Nights? One that started the Age of Heroes and, my personal belief, one during the Andal Invasion? What are you thoughts on this topic?
It could have been won if Stannis had given the command of the fleet to Davos instead of Imry Florent.
The latter was the main responsible of directly sending Stannis fleet into Tyrion trap and not using well Salladhor Saan fleet during the attack.
However its also true that Tywin force arrived just on time to avoid the inevitable victory of Stannis over Tyrion defenses. If Edmure hadnt delayed the advance of Tywin force through the Riverlands, the relief force would have arrived a few days later after the battle of the Blackwater
Stannis could have won and was winning it was just the imp delaying his army to buy time, tbh tyrion is a very good commander and doesn’t get enough respect for his feats at blackwater
Tyrion defense lastet only a few hours , this must be one of the worst record în history
@@flavius5722 it was all he could have done, and pretty impressive
@@maxtomlinson8134 He tried his best of course ,and in real life would've probably lasted more time ,maybe even weeks
He was a good Hand but not a great general ,maybe he should've keep his man inside the walls, remain in defense
Forget about bringing Melisandre to the blackwater. Bring Patchface. Way more powerful, way better clairvoyance, way more experienced with wrecked ships.
The whole Lannisters remaining in power required so many specific things to happen.
First Renly had to abandon all concept of inheritance law (and why would anyone join him with such a precedent) amd rebel, instead of realising he would have been in line to the throne anyway with Stannis only having Shireeen.
Then Stannis has to ignore Ned him being an important ally.
To be fair, inheritance law was going out the window. The last king crowned was Robert, who yes had a real tenuous claim by law but basically just was crowned cause he won the war. Renly could have easily done the same thing if he won, especially since his legal claim is actually pretty strong once Joffery and co and Stannis are dealt with (either willingly abdicate or killed).
As far why would anyone support him, he had the support of the largest kingdom in the Reach, which also has influence by producing food for the other kingdoms, and at least half (if not more) of the storm lands, an area known for being pretty military inclined.
I do agree he would have been better off supporting his brother and claiming the throne after his death (assuming Stannis didn’t have another child before then), but he definitely could have justified his kingship if he’d won.
He may have won in a sense that the forces united against him will never stand along side each other like they did against him ever again. The Tyrells, Littlefinger, Tywin, Tyrion, Cersei and Joffrey came together for one defence but the majority of them are dead while Stannis has gained forces and safe terrain. The real question is if Stannis will be derailed from fortifying the North and restablishing Stark rule in favour of retaking Storms End in which case he engages a whole new enemy. Stannis gains more from a loss while in his place other lords fracture and perish. Once his Navy reemerges and adds the Manderly fleet Stannis stands to gain naval supremacy of Westeros as the Crowns final strength is weakened while fighting Euron in the South.
You point out that Stannis waited months to declare his Kingship because he was cautious. So, why would a cautious man attempt an amphibious landing on a narrow riverbank to attack manned and fortified walls? It seems the battle plan should have been to use his naval superiority to clear the bay and river of enemy ships, then ferry his entire army across the Blackwater (or initiate landings upriver to outflank enemy positions), and use his ships to blockade King's Landing. He would then attack the city from the north or lay seige. Also, he should attack and then land at Rosby and Duskendale. From Rosby march west to the Kingsroad and cut off any relief to King's Landing from the north or west. However, this would be easier if Tywin's army still thought Stannis's attack would be amphibious and Tywin's army still went that way and they were inside the beseiged city needing to break out rather than still be in the open field where their numbers would prevail.
My guess is he knew he didn’t have much time to take the city before Twyin would arrive to try and lift the siege, which was accurate as they arrived mid assault. He was likely uncertain if he had the forces to take Twyin in open ground (and definitely wouldn’t be able to once the Tyrell’s joined the Lannister’s. The only safe option would be to leave the area entirely and hope he could outrun his opponents. However even if they do get away, they’ve not done anything to actually win the war.
Instead he went for the risky plan that, if it went according to plan, would possibly win him the war. Had he succeeded in taken the city, Joffery and Tommen would be captured or dead (as it was Tommen would definitely be dead as his mother was going to poison him if the city fell). Twyin would arrive to find his grandsons dead, along with their claim to the throne (I think under their inheritance laws, Stannis would be crowned king over Marcella). Twyins legitimacy would be basically gone. Tyrell’s support would likely go since the bargaining chip of making Margery queen is gone, while Stannis could potentially still marry his daughter to one of the boys. Even if they do carry on fighting, Stannis’ forces would be inside a fortified city instead of open field, giving them a better chance of beating them back. And despite things like the chain, the plan nearly paid off. The city was quite close to falling and if Twyin’s armies didn’t arrive as quickly as they did (partly because Robb fucked up by not telling Edmure the plan, so Edmure stopping Twyin crossing a river and marching the wrong way for a couple days) then it would have fallen.
Stannis took a risky shot at winning the war rather then running away, which would achieve nothing and at best cost him time and money (remember Stannis was using an awful lot of sell swords in his original army) and at worst would lead to the same outcome of his land forces being devastated.
@@finlayames6216 I don't necessarily disagree that Stannis needed to take a risk or 2, and still get lucky, to win and keep the throne, the entire plan to sail into Blackwater Bay belies In Deep Geeks's claim that Stannis is cautious.
If the imp hadn't used wildfire and Imry Florent didn't sail all of the King's forces into the bay, he would've taken the city before the Lannister and Tyrell host arrived. He would have Cersei, Tyrion, Tommen and Joffrey (as well as Sansa) in his custody. Even with a force of 80000, a defending force of 16-17000 experienced soldiers with an experience battle commander would've repaired the damage done during the conquest and held onto KL. Then, he would've ransomed the imp and maybe Cersei for a declaration of fealty. Joffrey would have to burn, and Tommen mayhaps exiled or kept as a hostage as done with Theon. Tywin would'nt risk the death of two Lannisters and King Stannis has experience in siege warfare. He would've then dealt with Robb Stark, demanding fealty in exchange for Sansa, which he would've done. It was Tyrion and Cersei's cunning which won the throne for the Lannisters, if not, House Baratheon would've won the game of thrones definitively.
Nice but NO
It was not Cersei or Tyrion, this what they tell you in their POV if you read the books , or if you only watch the movie you dont know how big was really the battle
Even if he take the city , he would not have Tommen because he îs not in Kings Landing , or Cersei because she will rather killed herself, or Tyrion because he will die either fighting or betrayed by Ser Mandon , Sansa maybe ,the only real hostage will be Joffrey but Tywin will not negociate for him ,especially when he has Tommen
Stannis may resist în the city a month, but he will be forced to flee at sea , this isnt Storm's End with 500 soliders ,this is a city of 500k people who already had food crisis
Renly screwed them all by dragging his heels and slowly marching on KL. Cat had seen that herself noting it could have been all over long before if he’d taken his huge force directly there. Stannis could shadow baby him there of course but his paltry force would never have taken the city if there had been much of one if they’d resisted.
Far more likely the tiny force of Gold Cloaks would have let Renly’s host in. Stannis and Tywin would have been far too late. Renly would have expensive hostages in Sansa, Cersei, Tyrion, etc, to negotiate peace.
Mel burned an Eagle out of the Sky by internal combustion. That is insanely powerful but she was at the Wall, I don't think you could underestimate her presence in this battle.
Thanks Edmure
If only Stannis have magical ships that he won't "forget" he would've won Blackwater.
Now you have to ask, could 20,000 of Stanis' veterans (at least I think most of them were veterans or at the very least experienced soldiers) with Stanis commanding them hold the outer walls against 70,000 lanister recruits and whatever they Tyrells brought.
If stanis had better scouts and a better navel commander that might have turned the tide.
Yes. Had he coordinated with Rob to attack the same time, the Tyrell forces would have been annihilated
GRRM tries to keep the story very realistic but he has clear limits, he doesn’t like to remove many chess pieces at once. If Stannis had taken the castle then all the POV characters in there would’ve been killed, and Stannis and his forces would’ve been killed by the arriving Lannisters
Maybe had Lord Edmure not attacked Lord Tywin at Stone Mill, maybe Stannis might have won
Tyrion use of wild fire at Blackwater and trapping Stannis fleet was devastating.
The Tyrell’s would have showed up instead
Thanks Robert! Love a song of ice and fire and you're break downs are so much more enjoyable than most. Personally can't stand that lightbringer guy, just sayin. Glad you're here doin your thing.
He is still alive in the books and on the rise. The battle of the blackwater was a setback
Man, Im no military expert, but attacking a heavily fortified position, like a castle fortress is almost always, always a bad idea, unless you can get them to hole up. Then you lay seige to it for months until they give up or starve. Attacking by sea, you cant cut off the city's supply lines. Thats why Tywin was able to get to King's Landing to provide reinforcements.
in this case it was a poorly timed worthwhile scarfice, stannis's attack on king's landing was successful, and they where about to breach the walls and get into the city, it's just tyrion's efforts bought time for the city and stanni's plan wasn't good as it should have been
If Stannis had taken King's Landing earlier, Renly would still have come to besiege him.
Would Stannis have killed Joffrey or simply deposed him and accused Cersei only of betrayal? His handling of Robert's royal family could have somewhat weighed on Tywin's behaviour but a Lannister alliance with Renly would have been likely for the sake of the family name.
Robb Stark would have sided with Stannis before he was made king in the North to get his sisters back so that conflict would not have occurred. Their joined forces would still have been inferior to Renly's & Tywin's combined so Stannis would have killed Renly, with the same effect on the Lords of the Stormlands. Assuming Joffrey and Tommen captive, a marriage alliance could still have been promised to Margaery Tyrell but at this point a wedding of Loras to Shireen could have looked just as interesting. Except Loras would have wanted revenge, so the Tyrells could have played both sides and used Loras as a Trojan horse.
Stannis was never gonna take King's Landing without taking out Renly or making some deal with him
He should’ve join Robb without a doubt!
I was rewatching your Season 8 reviews and they seemed very charitable. Do you stand by those views or have they changed in retrospect? It may be worth doing a video revisiting the ending and suggesting how it may have worked better
Before watching the video, my initial thought is: he could have made a greater effort to ally with Renly.
I feel like given the size of his force he should’ve sent multiple attacks. Or maybe sent the main force to the black gate while sending a few thousand men with davos on a stealth flanking mission with some grappling hooks and attacked from the other side.
Maybe but the much larger Tyrell army will arrive anyway
If he hadn't have let Melisandre kill Renley, Tywin would not have had the army to defeat him. His biggest mistake here was killing Renley - thoigh of course Renley betrayed his brother, with his support the whole thing would have been done pretty quickly and then they would just be waiting for Dany