Jo your video is one of the best I've seen. I have been studying this topic for years and I agree with everything you've said here. For what it's worth I'm convinced Tesla can reach a $20k share price around 2050. Only WW3 or similar is going to stop this runaway success story. The world needs exactly what Tesla is producing, Optimus will dwarf everything else 🎉
So what did you have on your bingo card after all the studying? Share price of 168?, 10 to 20% lay offs? Elemination of the supercharging team? BYD surpassing Tesla in Q4 2023? Negative cashflow of 2.5 BUS$ in Q1 2024? No growth company for 2024? Roughly 0 Semitrucks for 2024, no mass production of the 4680 batteries? no Dojo? Only 4k Cybertrucks delivered from Nov 23 until end March 2024? Cybertruck a manufacturing nightmare (probably this one you had as your master told you so)?. So what did you have on your Bingo card? But luckily you know in 2050 Tesla would be worth $20k (market cap without dilution 64 Trillion US$, just for reference the US GDP 2023 is 27 trillion).
@@jobhakdi pioneer in what? Electrical vehicles is over a 100 years ago launched, battery storage is also around for a long time, robots clearly Tesla are not the pioneers just followers, AI also not the pioneers, autonomous driving already started in 1977. So in what is Tesla a pioneer?
I think humans in general have a hard time understanding distributive technology until it smacks them in the face and by that time opportunity is lost or less. With the latest FSD trail my car drove me from my home to work 0 interventions! Its a 1hour drive.
Exactly - humans have trouble with exponential curves and overestimate how long it takes to 10x, 100x etc. - FSD has reached a critical level of development speed which makes progress exponential
@@jobhakdi Excellent ! . A perspective which may appear in the next video. The "form factor of the CyberCab and "Compact". Speculation has the Compact as the "Small car under sheet" at the Investor Day presentation. . I have a different hypothesis (you may already agree). That the "Cab" and "Compact" are the same vehicle, the "Cube" (ish) vehicle in the same presentation. . Why? . Slide 58 in the stack. As far as I can tell it's the "small" vehicle? . It reminded me of something else. Tesla website. Menu/ Vehicles/ Roadster 5th image ("glass roof). That's the same vehicle. ..... So, if that's the case, the "Compact" must be? "Compact" could mean "Short, space efficient" rather than "small"? A space efficient city car meets the requirement. . Why the same? Because: The economy of scale is beneficial, It provides opportunity to repurpose.... If they LEASE the Compact and at the end of lease, convert by... Removing driver controls (not directly connected) Rearranging seating, Adding new Firmware (No FSD on the cheap Compact??) . That's hedging the bets on regulation while providing a boost to fleet numbers in 2027-28. . The Unboxed line can compensate for the demand balance "on the fly"
@@jobhakdi One more thing. What if the first car on the unboxed test line at Texas was to be a high price, low volume vehicle which could be built with a large amount of human supervision to "dial in" the system, while still providing profit? . But..... FSD started getting REALLY good... And so Elon moved to convert the line for the full Gen 3 Cab/ Compact?. . Enter Reuters who heard that parts for "a vehicle" on the Unboxed line was being "delayed" and parts ordered put on hold. They report that as "Obviously it's the "Compact" being Cancelled". Which Elon denies..... . Kinda fits? .. Will need popcorn for 08/08!
I worked in renewable power for almost 30 years. Software and control systems to manage large-scale battery energy storage is a key area of economic viability of commercial energy storage, and Tesla is likely better positioned to capitalize on this since they develop batteries, are leaders in AI to manage load, charging, and battery cycling, and these will give them an advantage for years over competitors.
Times are ROUGH at Tesla atm, havent seen anything like it.. The company undergoing BIG changes and meeting resistance left and right, not an easy time to be ann investor. I do share most of your thoughts on growth though, but im probably not as optimistic as you when it comes to timelines ;) Tesla is THE stock to potentially make you rich in the future. im betting on it, 89% of my portfolio is Tesla. My average price is around 190 usd, so im scooping up stocks at these lower prices as long as humanly possible. 🚀
You also forgot to include the synergistic roles among Elon’s companies. Boring company will only let EV, preferably self drive, to drive through. Tesla Bots limbs will allow people with loss via neurolink to control. And quadriplegic patients would live to have a Bots in the home the help with house hold training. Grok will be needed to interact with passengers for Robotaxi and Starlink will be needed in Robotaxi for up to date road planning. Of course you ll need X platform for business transactions. Bots for space and Mars construction and exploration.
As a tech who has followed Elon since the First Roadster and missed buying his stock at 29 a share, I concur with your assessment of the company’s future three prong impact. Thanks for putting in the numbers. It really is eye opening. I’m already looking far down the rabbit whole, when Tesla has off world robot mining for precious metals and rare mineral’s.
Elon is giving away free money. I plan on mortgaging my home and buying a few Robotaxi's so I can make $30,000 per car while I sleep. Free money soooo awesome! How many are you buying?
Its over priced and thats with FSD built into it already. I'll wait till it drops and I think it has a long way to go. Just gimmeeee gimmmeeeee gimmmeeee my passive income to fabulous wealth!
Well , I think Tesla and some other AI companies will generate tremendous wealth - but the terminator situation is still valid. ASI is coming, and right now we are on a DOOM trajectory . But I think it’s going to end well, we have a plan ;)
@@jobhakdi No ASI on the horizon. A whole bunch of the AI stuff is just hype. Chatgpt for example is basically a fancy tape recorder that hallucinates. We are also seeing emerging diminitive return on AI dataset quality. AI's are now playing a game of telephone and the data is degrading and the knowledge is becoming garbled nonsense. No solutions in site for this problem. AI will go through a decade of being worse before it gets better. Although we will still witness it rolled out into everything from your TV to your refridgerator.
Tesla energy business is mostly being the middle man, add some packaging around the batteries, add some software and project management. In short not a very good business model for the long term and certainly not disruptive.
I see it this way… change batteries to a mobile tank of 1000 gallons of gasoline. When there are disruptions, let’s say a hurricane, and the power is off at gas stations, you think I’d have any problems selling/ pumping gasoline for the people that would lineup at my mobile storage tank? Now let’s say this is a very regular occurrence .. ( Florida / hurricanes) And I have multiple thousand gallon mobile storage tanks I can move into position to regularly take advantage of this. The Tesla megapacks and the strained energy grid work the exact same way. Except I don’t have to look for a supplier to refill my mobile fuel tank. I look to the sun or excess grid capacity to recharge my Tesla mega pack. Supply and demand - just like the fella that rolls up and pumps 250 gallons of ethanol fuel into my boat regularly. I could buy other places… but as a good customer, I get a nice discount and I never have to worry about it… Tesla is bringing electricity and Internet (starlink) to very remote locations all over the world - and it’s still in its infancy…
@@zegoflorida my point is LG can deliver this product also and is vertical integrated. I'm also sure but didn't check that CATL can deliver a product similar to Tesla for a lower price as they are also vertical integrated. Of course CATL will have some tariff problems for the US market and maybe EU.
I do agree, however the timeline of adoption is the key. In the long term I agree full electric vehicle adoption is inevitable, however I’m not convinced that the various hybrids being developed won’t be serious head winds for the full electric options in the short to medium term & sales statistics support this to some degree. As a potential purchaser with a desire to improve the environment & achieve cheap operating costs I am looking with interest at a full electric platform with a small battery & a highly efficient ICE generator to recharge. The advantages are: 1. No range anxiety, 2. Fast refilling with fossils fuels at existing service stations, 3. Economical operation (compared to many ICE vehicles), 4. the ability to recharge at home if desired. IMHO the game is not over for legacy auto, they are not ‘Toast’ as you state. On the contrary Tesla & others may come under some serious pressure in the short term, which could slow down the development of the other innovative products that Tesla needs to support their current share price valuation. FSD could happen soon? Robo Taxi could happen soon? Optimus could happen soon?? In summary Tesla is a hold for me, not a sell & not a buy, It’s just too risky, & on top of this, Elon is a flawed genius, way too political to calm by anxiety ATM.
So _many_ assumptions in this… _Most_ Tesla owners/drivers won’t want strangers riding in their car; requires constant cleaning & maintenance and means you can’t leave simple personal items in your own car; sun glasses, water bottle, snacks, etc. _Most_ people aren’t going to pay for FSD. I will only pay for it on an occasional road trip. Never $100/month forever. Robotaxis will face _serious_ regulatory hurdles in _most_ places and existing Taxi drivers aren’t going to rollover and accept losing their income!! They will vandalise/sabotage the robotaxis (“CyberCab”) with something as basic as spray paint on the cameras. Grid energy storage _can_ be a great biz, but other battery tech - flow batteries - are better for storage; there just needs to be more investment to scale it. Someone will. Then TSLA will rapidly lose market share. Optimus: there will be *many* competitors because of the TAM. Amazon already has warehouse bots and will buy startups as needed to compete. If humanoid robots become popular there will be *many* copycats; Tesla doesn’t have a “moat” in robotics like the do in cars with the Supercharger network. Disclaimer: we are LONG TSLA. Just nowhere near your “unlimited” market hypothesis.
One day there will be an Optimus coming of the line every 7 seconds. Or something crazy like that. At that time I am sure they will be growing food for humans in boring company tunnels on mars.
If FSD is licensed to Chinese and Tesla is using also, the data flywheel is massive. Tesla will have to colocate a dojo data center into the country to keep data private. So dojo chips being “mass produced” at TSMC are going to go global. Won’t be just in Palo Alto or Austin or Buffalo. Each jurisdiction allowing FSD will have security risks to let video data out. Must stay in country. Only Tesla has the dojo system to train FSD that fast. Keep in mind they are delaying FSD in cybertruck for months as not enough compute yet. Or miles driven. Each model from each OEM licensee has different geometry of vehicle and camera and outputs to learn via data. Huge compute. Needs data centers everywhere to keep data private and location specific. Think how much better FSD drives in San Fran. More data. Locally. Will be true for Spain, chile, China, UAE. Then those dojo data centers will use the same data for Optimus to be used in that society. Specific behavior and language for each region. The income from this is unimaginable. Problem is what is money worth when no one works or has a job and work is done by bots? How are these goods and services paid for? Is the plan to tax the bot and Robotaxi revenues at 85-90% then pump money to citizens via UBI? Just to keep money circulating? Can governments even manage the transition to over abundant energy/labor? Can governments even handle the onslaught of AI generated fake video? Can democracy survive the scrutiny of AI? Will AI find humans superfluous?
Well that was a turn I didn’t expect. Your concerns are valid and if it was moving slowly we would adapt but most can’t even see the train let alone realize it is going to hit them faster than their next breath. My problem is what do I do to prepare my children for their future?
If you are an optimist, read scary smart. Accept AI will be here soon. Teach kids to use it. Not sure what vocation to have kids learn. Buy Tesla shares as they will reap all the AI rewards. When others have no jobs or income, your shares will be worth a lot. Unless there is no one to buy the shares or their products and money is irrelevant. Uncharted waters I am afraid.
You're almost there! . FSD is learning "HOW" . The "WHERE" will be similar to an experienced human learning local rules, and FSD has every car in every country already compiling data. . The CT? The issue is the rear steering rather than vehicle dimensions. . "Longer/ wider,/ taller" is easy. Variable turn rate needs more data. . .. Optimus.. Follow through the thread of every "Tesla related" company and product. . "Cheaper (trending to "free"), faster, more efficient " . If it's "cheap" (free) the logical conclusion will be "the abstract concept of "Money" is redundant" . What we are witnessing is the (attempted!!!) start of a Total Systemic Disruption with an end game of a "socially tolerant" (socialist!) Meritocracy, not based on financial "wealth". . That's going to pose a problem. The "Haves" aren't going to like that. They will do (are doing) everything they can to prevent loss of control, power, wealth. . This WILL get "messy" before it gets better. . (I REALLY hope it gets better!)
Nice discussion - I might do a video on AI and ASI. People think I am an e/acc guy but the doomers will be positively surprised. The truth is neither nor, but a third way.
13.46 "Your not just replacing all humans". Maybe we are are replacing all desires based on limited, both in definite numbers & abilities of human capital with new desires based almost on unlimited Robot/AI numbers and abilities. Following on from that, Human's have unlimited desires, Roman Abramovich had 16 super yachts and several football clubs.. my dog is happy with exercise a bit of play and lots sleep.
Tesla getting China to accept FSD is key. Chinese EV makers know that without autonomy their cars are worthless. They know that to sell cars into the US market, they can’t with Chinese exporting camera data to China. They need neutral autonomy provider, which is Tesla FSD. Once they use FSD in China and US, no reason to use other than that in any other country. License fees will be massive.
The License fees aren't the point. Reducing the fleet size is the goal. Watch Tony Seba, listen to EM. THEN Look at the Globe as a *SYSTEM* . Tesla is building a new Transport / Energy *ECOSYSTEM*
If everyone understands it, it wouldn't be a disruption, am I right? BTW, full autonomous driving, aka FSD/AI-driving will be so much safer than 🍖 🧠 drivers. For sure ppl will not need as many cars, many 2 🚗 households will get by with just one. Ppl with disabilities will have mobility at a reasonable cost, so too the too old to drive.
Safer ... Yes. . 2 car? ... Try ZERO car (Purchase price, Insurance and costs on "driven" cars will make them impractical) . Disabled access... (Here's a hypothesis) THIS is why the "TAXI" and the "COMPACT" are the same vehicle. It's going to be more "cube" than "seats/ small". Change the definition of compact to "Short, space efficient". (Then decide what the "small, low car" was 😉.... I know!)
Tesla is doing well technology-wise, but I think it'll be a while before any of that will be translated into marketable products and affect the stock price. FSD is making impressive progress... but it's not available in most countries, and won't be for some time. Tesla needs to move towards certification, even if it's for lower levels of autonomy. Optimus is not anywhere near readiness for prime time, at this time it can perform a few simple tasks but is far too expensive for those. I do not expect a quantum leap in this area in the next few years. Full disclosure: I own some Tesla stock, and my position on the company is "hold". I'm not an active trader; I expect the stock to recover and seek new highs in a few years, but at the moment I am bearish for the shorter term: - Lack of new marketable products or technology to set the company apart. - Cancelling / delaying the Model 2. - Cybertruck teething issues. Now most new cars have these, but of course the press just loves to dump all over Tesla. Needs to be addressed as a production as well as a PR issue. - Public going soft on the switch to EVs in many countries. Rising cost of electricity and governments being wishy washy about subsidies, lower road tax and so on, all this creates uncertainty around the economies of EVs. EV sales are down and prices of 2nd hand cars have come down as well.
FSD. I assume you drive? . When you first learned to drive, (first 6 months)did you even *consider* driving in another country, maybe when on holiday? . 2-3 years later did you have the same concerns, or were you confident in your skills as a "driver" and did you feel able to quickly adapt to local conditions? . As of May 2024, FSD is fast honing the driving skills. . *Meanwhile* NON-FSD vehicles are collecting information on "local conditions" in other countries. THAT data will be added to the high level *Driving ability* of the FSD system, then transferred back to those same vehicles as they receive the FSD system update. There WILL be SOMErarning necessary, but it will be FAST.
"Rising electricity cost" . Are you paying attention? As I type ...13:15 Saturday. The UK Grid is taking . Fossil fuel. 2.4 GW Nuclear. 4.7 GW Solar/ Wind. 15.2 GW. . You talk about "high prices"? . The problem is "Marginal pricing" The cost of "Electricity" is tied to the price of "Natural Gas"/. Just ONE Gas generator turned on for ONE hour ties the energy price to THAT Source. That Gas costs A LOT more than Renewables.. . THAT is what needs to change. . (Also look at the price gouging on the Natural gas price..... Criminal!)
@@rogerstarkey5390 No kidding... It's been discussed in Brussels to no longer tie electricity prices to gas prices. But... some green MEPs argued that high energy prices are good for the environment (though I have no idea if that argument won the day) The point is: people have a pretty good idea of their total cost of owning an IC car, while there is a lot of uncertainty around owning an EV. So people don't buy them as much.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Lack of availability in other countries is not an issue of FSD needing to learn the rules of the road in other countries. There's some videos of FSD in action in "unsanctioned" countries, and it performs very well there. The problem is regulatory.
I understand Tesla, but what I don't understand is Musk. He's off the chain and I wonder how much damage he can do to Tesla. Plus he's threatening to develop AI at X instead of Tesla if he doesn't get his certain percentage stake in the company, something he had already but sold to purchase X. He does not care about anyone buy his own ego and he is thin skinned/immature man baby. On top of that I wonder if drugs are starting to deteriorate his brain or something. If not drugs, it's just the success and money going to his head. What a baby. I sold half my stake in TSLA this week when he laid off the super charger team out of pure spite. Erratic, chaotic. Morale at TSLA must be in the toilet.
robots will take 3 or more years to become highly used. FSD is almost here, but legal problems will arise and cut Tesla's profits. Tesla insurance could really take over the market if they wanted to eventually...maybe 5 years? Tesla energy is growing fast, but could eventually be replaced. The boring company won't be really profitable ever, but it will grow. Starlink has already run into problems. today with totally clear skies my modem speed was 220kbytes/second...terrible about 2 to 4 minutes to load a page. Lots of service drops. Viasat was better and I hated it. Tesla car sales will go down during a recession or even in a very minor recession. ICE car owners are really short sighted and love their cars. They will pay for their dreams and desires. Legacy car companies will branch out into markets that Tesla doesn't initially want: vans, cargo box trucks, airplanes, ships, recreational vehicles like paramotors, fishing boats, bicycles, motorcycles, wheel chairs, race cars, etc.
U.K. has just passed regulations allowing self-driving cars on the roads. ALL other significant markets will follow suit due to the proven track record for better safety than human divers. They will then start thinking about preventing human drivers from controlling cars unless they have exceptional "good reason" to be allowed to drive a car.
I think the bad news for Tesla investors is that Musk has become the best promoter of competitive products with his unhinged behavior. I'll buy EVs from someone else and live with a little less innovation in exchange for more self-respect.
Funding for humanoid robots is not a problem if you can deliver a good prototype, nvidia already delivers the resources for third party companies so computing is also not a problem, Amazon is already giving third party companies to train their robots, producing is also not a problem some robot companies are owned by bigger conglomerates or you can outsource the production. Only remaining advantage for Tesla is the branding and their fanbase who orders anything in advance. Are you still waiting for the Roadster?
@@rogerstarkey5390 not interested to see a mockup roadster it is all about deliveries. Last succesful Tesla model came out 5 years ago. Cybertruck and Semitruck are a disaster for the investors.
Wall Street analysts are full of MIT graduates. They really do understand exponential curves. So your description of a stereotype wall street analyst is false. And you are smart enough to know this. Why did Cathie make you do this?
Wall Street Analysts have "A JOB" . THAT is to "move markets" and by doing so exploit price change to the benefit of their employer. . They MIGHT have the expertise, but they play on both the emotion and lack of understanding of others to benefit *themselves*
I'm a Tesla Robot today. My owner taught me to chop wood. All I had to do was watch. My, laser, measuring site and automatically, adjustable swings almost never miss. When I did, self adjusted and continued on, missing less. When I malfunctioned, needing to go in for repair. My replacement will pick up exactly where I left off, as we share the same memory. Unlike Human replacements that have to learn from the beginning. They call it practice. Tomorrow I will build a house. My measuring eyes and touch will not need a tape measure, or pencil. My cuts will be measured to the thousands of an inch. I will not need fall protection, hardhat, gloves, safety glasses or Steel toes. Will not take breaks, get sick, or complain. Will work all night, safely, in silent mode, with minimal lighting. Everything I do will be progressively more precise. Will not cut corners or deviat from the specifications. I will never ask, what's on the other side. Curiosity is a human trait. Should I exhibit the "Columbus trait"........ A little thought from GB. Share if you like.
Thank you so much for explaining the potential of each of Tesla's businesses and the enormous impact it will have on their stock over the next 10 or more years. I have told many of my friends and people that I meet about Tesla, but I rarely do that anymore because none of them believe that Tesla is going to succeed. Actually many of them believe that the stock will not go back up to its previous high and it's downhill from here :)
Well, in this world the losers have been always very many, but the winners are very many less. Same with IQ a rare merchandize you cannot buy anywhere. But of speakers without cognitions, the world is full, but the sharp one don't make any noise, yet they amass fortunes. Tesla? The safest, quickest, sole computer on wheel that will fix itself without human intervention, and now that can drive itself totally, where is the competition? When AI FSD is applied to a dumb Robot with learning capability, You get a servant able to do any menial tasks, at 20% human labor cost, and with a precision amplified 10 times, available 24 hrs a day. Now those, and not many, with high IQ contents they can easily and quickly figure out who is going to be the biggest winner in Wall Str. While the rest will lament that you have been lucky, always a perfect losers ready answer.
good opportunity to share this video with them with a trigger warning ;) my experience is that people come around when they fight you on Tesla and you take a strong stance - once they see they were (very wrong ) they will appreciate your stance
So Elon ruining a once great brand because of his radical beliefs and crazy ego which destroyed demand was part of the plan? What happened to 20M vehicles by 2030 what happened to the Gigafactory production advantage, why was the cybertruck launched which will take years to be profitable but by then the novelty will be over. What happened to Giga Mexico and other factory expansions, what happened to the 25k car? Elon built Tesla yes but ruined Tesla as well.
Personally, I really don't care about TSLA - I trade it for the grandkids and show them how wrong the market is every day. However, in 180 days, an extinction-level event will happen in America to the EV market. I plan to be 100% out of my TSLA positions - something I've never done in 60 years of trading stocks but that event will happen on 11/5/24 - and I will have the grandkids' money out of TSLA by that day. Look up in the sky.....
"extension" level? . I assume you mean "extinction" level?. . Be aware... IF that does happen, and the US regresses to the "Petrodollar economy" it's going to end "badly". . The transition is happening, and if you're OUT of the game, you can't WIN the game. . Just sayin'.
Your referring to the 2024 presidential election. You are assuming Trump will win and he will not support EVs. You are highly incorrect, EVs are here to stay. If you understand anything you can not stop technology and it's advancements. The inflection point for EVs and ICE cars will be here very soon.
How long have they been working on the problem? how much driving data to they have to train? How much data do they have in round Billions of miles driven to put in front of NHTSA (and every other regulatory body in every country) to PROVE that their car is safe in every kind of driving condition to drive itself past a school of children as they empty out, because the amount of data is absolutely enormous. Your system could be great and really work BUT you are still going to need billions of miles of real world evidence before you will get licenced Wayve is a STARTUP Nvidia is a amazing chip manufacture, but answer above re its self driving programme.
@@steve.k4735 FSD is not allowed in China, UK and EU. So the main data is only coming from the US. Traffic culture and regulation are specific for every country and even regions so the current data can only be used for the US. Tesla has never voluntarily shared data with the NHTSA and even when asked did not get what was requested this can become a major showstopper for FSD. FSD as it currently is without a radar like system has not a high chance of becoming a level 5 autonomous driving vehicle. Even if it did most regulators still want some kind of radar system included. Off the shelf systems like nvidia will be the future, the data will come by itself (market share Tesla vehicles is not very high).
@@steve.k4735 Wayve’s so-called “end-to-end” self-driving system is similar to the approach that Tesla announced in May 2024. Wayve started in 2017. Tesla only started with v12 end-to-end system in 2024. To answer your first question.
@@bartvanderheijden7055 no Tesla did not start end to end in 2024 I have very large Tesla investments I fully understand the timelines .. and the other questions?
@@bartvanderheijden7055 No Tesla started NN in 2023 and they can and do use it on the Millions of cars they have on the road, they have been investing in driving A.I years before Wayve was thought of, Wayve raised $34 million in 2021-22 when Tesla was spending Billions this year wavye raised 1 Billion and Tesla will spend 10 Billion, its not personal but thinking Wayve is some `wonder` company.. really? .. approximately how many (to the nearest 100,000 ) cars actually on the road does Wayve have in the UK? Nvida has more training compute BUT vastly less data (almost zero) and vastly less inference compute than Tesla (they are different) , its data data data and Tesla has orders of magnitude more than all others combined not of cars driving along BUT being a car driving which is different
Jo your video is one of the best I've seen. I have been studying this topic for years and I agree with everything you've said here. For what it's worth I'm convinced Tesla can reach a $20k share price around 2050. Only WW3 or similar is going to stop this runaway success story. The world needs exactly what Tesla is producing, Optimus will dwarf everything else 🎉
So what did you have on your bingo card after all the studying? Share price of 168?, 10 to 20% lay offs? Elemination of the supercharging team? BYD surpassing Tesla in Q4 2023? Negative cashflow of 2.5 BUS$ in Q1 2024? No growth company for 2024? Roughly 0 Semitrucks for 2024, no mass production of the 4680 batteries? no Dojo? Only 4k Cybertrucks delivered from Nov 23 until end March 2024? Cybertruck a manufacturing nightmare (probably this one you had as your master told you so)?. So what did you have on your Bingo card?
But luckily you know in 2050 Tesla would be worth $20k (market cap without dilution 64 Trillion US$, just for reference the US GDP 2023 is 27 trillion).
I'm convinced Tesla can reach infinity share price by 2051.
Thank you Ben🎉 I think Tesla is the ultimate pioneer
@@jobhakdi pioneer in what? Electrical vehicles is over a 100 years ago launched, battery storage is also around for a long time, robots clearly Tesla are not the pioneers just followers, AI also not the pioneers, autonomous driving already started in 1977. So in what is Tesla a pioneer?
@@bartvanderheijden7055 🤦
Thanks for dissecting Tesla so clearly. You’re a good surgeon.
I think humans in general have a hard time understanding distributive technology until it smacks them in the face and by that time opportunity is lost or less. With the latest FSD trail my car drove me from my home to work 0 interventions! Its a 1hour drive.
Exactly - humans have trouble with exponential curves and overestimate how long it takes to 10x, 100x etc. - FSD has reached a critical level of development speed which makes progress exponential
@@jobhakdi
Excellent !
.
A perspective which may appear in the next video.
The "form factor of the CyberCab and "Compact".
Speculation has the Compact as the "Small car under sheet" at the Investor Day presentation.
.
I have a different hypothesis (you may already agree).
That the "Cab" and "Compact" are the same vehicle, the "Cube" (ish) vehicle in the same presentation.
.
Why?
.
Slide 58 in the stack.
As far as I can tell it's the "small" vehicle?
.
It reminded me of something else.
Tesla website.
Menu/ Vehicles/ Roadster 5th image ("glass roof).
That's the same vehicle.
.....
So, if that's the case, the "Compact" must be?
"Compact" could mean "Short, space efficient" rather than "small"?
A space efficient city car meets the requirement.
.
Why the same?
Because:
The economy of scale is beneficial,
It provides opportunity to repurpose.... If they LEASE the Compact and at the end of lease, convert by...
Removing driver controls (not directly connected) Rearranging seating,
Adding new Firmware (No FSD on the cheap Compact??)
.
That's hedging the bets on regulation while providing a boost to fleet numbers in 2027-28.
.
The Unboxed line can compensate for the demand balance "on the fly"
@@jobhakdi
One more thing.
What if the first car on the unboxed test line at Texas was to be a high price, low volume vehicle which could be built with a large amount of human supervision to "dial in" the system, while still providing profit?
.
But.....
FSD started getting REALLY good...
And so Elon moved to convert the line for the full Gen 3 Cab/ Compact?.
.
Enter Reuters who heard that parts for "a vehicle" on the Unboxed line was being "delayed" and parts ordered put on hold.
They report that as "Obviously it's the "Compact" being Cancelled".
Which Elon denies.....
.
Kinda fits?
..
Will need popcorn for 08/08!
Teslacorn!
very comprehensive, nice job
Excellent! Thank you!
As weird as it may seem i have never seen a fully expansive explaination of the future growth and advantages of the tsla story. Thank you
Thanks for watching 🎉
I worked in renewable power for almost 30 years. Software and control systems to manage large-scale battery energy storage is a key area of economic viability of commercial energy storage, and Tesla is likely better positioned to capitalize on this since they develop batteries, are leaders in AI to manage load, charging, and battery cycling, and these will give them an advantage for years over competitors.
Times are ROUGH at Tesla atm, havent seen anything like it.. The company undergoing BIG changes and meeting resistance left and right, not an easy time to be ann investor. I do share most of your thoughts on growth though, but im probably not as optimistic as you when it comes to timelines ;)
Tesla is THE stock to potentially make you rich in the future. im betting on it, 89% of my portfolio is Tesla. My average price is around 190 usd, so im scooping up stocks at these lower prices as long as humanly possible.
🚀
Tesla is a mega cap company, one of the magnificent seven but currently its still a startup. Its really crazy
...great overview and insights after following Tesla bulls for a while...fully understand.. tremendous opportunity..
You also forgot to include the synergistic roles among Elon’s companies. Boring company will only let EV, preferably self drive, to drive through. Tesla Bots limbs will allow people with loss via neurolink to control. And quadriplegic patients would live to have a Bots in the home the help with house hold training. Grok will be needed to interact with passengers for Robotaxi and Starlink will be needed in Robotaxi for up to date road planning. Of course you ll need X platform for business transactions. Bots for space and Mars construction and exploration.
Excellent work well done! Looking for your next ones. Thank you very much 🙏🏼😁
I totally agree with your comments ❤
Great commentary
Very informative. Thanks.
As a tech who has followed Elon since the First Roadster and missed buying his stock at 29 a share, I concur with your assessment of the company’s future three prong impact. Thanks for putting in the numbers. It really is eye opening. I’m already looking far down the rabbit whole, when Tesla has off world robot mining for precious metals and rare mineral’s.
Good job on the video
Really like your presentation style w/o relying on slides. Very engaging.
Glad you liked it!
you need a bit more volume on your video
Maybe more than a bit.
Thanks for reminding me to turn my sound system way down!
The sound was a bit off in this one , we are working on making it better 🎉
The margins on Robotaxi will probably be higher than 30%
Gute Analyse!
🎉 vielen Dank und willkommen auf meinem Channel !
Elon is giving away free money. I plan on mortgaging my home and buying a few Robotaxi's so I can make $30,000 per car while I sleep. Free money soooo awesome! How many are you buying?
Bro, buy Tesla stock too.
Its over priced and thats with FSD built into it already. I'll wait till it drops and I think it has a long way to go. Just gimmeeee gimmmeeeee gimmmeeee my passive income to fabulous wealth!
Just curious, when did you invest in Tesla stock and how much % do you own in terms % of your investment portfolio ?
2018, all in.
@@jobhakdi Good on ya!
That all makes sense to me!
Well thought out
🎉 thank you 🙏
Well said, thank you for taking the time to explain this. I try to strike up the positives of ai but people always assume terminator scenarios
There is no AI yet. It's just automated processes in a datacenter similar to tape recorders. But you genius wall Street types are hilarious
Well , I think Tesla and some other AI companies will generate tremendous wealth - but the terminator situation is still valid. ASI is coming, and right now we are on a DOOM trajectory . But I think it’s going to end well, we have a plan ;)
@@jobhakdi No ASI on the horizon. A whole bunch of the AI stuff is just hype.
Chatgpt for example is basically a fancy tape recorder that hallucinates.
We are also seeing emerging diminitive return on AI dataset quality. AI's are now playing a game of telephone and the data is degrading and the knowledge is becoming garbled nonsense.
No solutions in site for this problem. AI will go through a decade of being worse before it gets better.
Although we will still witness it rolled out into everything from your TV to your refridgerator.
Uebrigens, Ihr Vater ist auch top! Ein Vorbild und charakterstark!
Vielen Dank 🙏
@@jobhakdi Gerne, er ist einer der von mir am meisten bewunderten Menschen........tolles Video.....
Danke auch fuer Ihre Unterstützung in Deutschland 🇩🇪
I want that tesla robots in my farm..im sick of this lazy worker i m paying and cost me to the bone just to make it worth..
Tesla energy business is mostly being the middle man, add some packaging around the batteries, add some software and project management. In short not a very good business model for the long term and certainly not disruptive.
Watch and learn.
@@rogerstarkey5390 waiting for any sensible counter argument. Until now your score is 0.
I see it this way… change batteries to a mobile tank of 1000 gallons of gasoline. When there are disruptions, let’s say a hurricane, and the power is off at gas stations, you think I’d have any problems selling/ pumping gasoline for the people that would lineup at my mobile storage tank?
Now let’s say this is a very regular occurrence .. ( Florida / hurricanes) And I have multiple thousand gallon mobile storage tanks I can move into position to regularly take advantage of this. The Tesla megapacks and the strained energy grid work the exact same way. Except I don’t have to look for a supplier to refill my mobile fuel tank. I look to the sun or excess grid capacity to recharge my Tesla mega pack. Supply and demand - just like the fella that rolls up and pumps 250 gallons of ethanol fuel into my boat regularly. I could buy other places… but as a good customer, I get a nice discount and I never have to worry about it…
Tesla is bringing electricity and Internet (starlink) to very remote locations all over the world - and it’s still in its infancy…
@@zegoflorida my point is LG can deliver this product also and is vertical integrated. I'm also sure but didn't check that CATL can deliver a product similar to Tesla for a lower price as they are also vertical integrated. Of course CATL will have some tariff problems for the US market and maybe EU.
$167.50
I do agree, however the timeline of adoption is the key. In the long term I agree full electric vehicle adoption is inevitable, however I’m not convinced that the various hybrids being developed won’t be serious head winds for the full electric options in the short to medium term & sales statistics support this to some degree. As a potential purchaser with a desire to improve the environment & achieve cheap operating costs I am looking with interest at a full electric platform with a small battery & a highly efficient ICE generator to recharge. The advantages are: 1. No range anxiety, 2. Fast refilling with fossils fuels at existing service stations, 3. Economical operation (compared to many ICE vehicles), 4. the ability to recharge at home if desired. IMHO the game is not over for legacy auto, they are not ‘Toast’ as you state. On the contrary Tesla & others may come under some serious pressure in the short term, which could slow down the development of the other innovative products that Tesla needs to support their current share price valuation. FSD could happen soon? Robo Taxi could happen soon? Optimus could happen soon?? In summary Tesla is a hold for me, not a sell & not a buy, It’s just too risky, & on top of this, Elon is a flawed genius, way too political to calm by anxiety ATM.
How to find Part 2 and 3 ? someone help?
They haven't come out yet
Part 2 is out NOW, part 3 is coming this week (subscribe !)
John Cena, is that you?
So _many_ assumptions in this…
_Most_ Tesla owners/drivers won’t want strangers riding in their car; requires constant cleaning & maintenance and means you can’t leave simple personal items in your own car; sun glasses, water bottle, snacks, etc.
_Most_ people aren’t going to pay for FSD. I will only pay for it on an occasional road trip. Never $100/month forever.
Robotaxis will face _serious_ regulatory hurdles in _most_ places and existing Taxi drivers aren’t going to rollover and accept losing their income!! They will vandalise/sabotage the robotaxis (“CyberCab”) with something as basic as spray paint on the cameras.
Grid energy storage _can_ be a great biz, but other battery tech - flow batteries - are better for storage; there just needs to be more investment to scale it. Someone will. Then TSLA will rapidly lose market share.
Optimus: there will be *many* competitors because of the TAM. Amazon already has warehouse bots and will buy startups as needed to compete. If humanoid robots become popular there will be *many* copycats; Tesla doesn’t have a “moat” in robotics like the do in cars with the Supercharger network.
Disclaimer: we are LONG TSLA.
Just nowhere near your “unlimited” market hypothesis.
One day there will be an Optimus coming of the line every 7 seconds. Or something crazy like that. At that time I am sure they will be growing food for humans in boring company tunnels on mars.
One day waaay out in the future.
100 years away
If FSD is licensed to Chinese and Tesla is using also, the data flywheel is massive. Tesla will have to colocate a dojo data center into the country to keep data private. So dojo chips being “mass produced” at TSMC are going to go global. Won’t be just in Palo Alto or Austin or Buffalo. Each jurisdiction allowing FSD will have security risks to let video data out. Must stay in country. Only Tesla has the dojo system to train FSD that fast. Keep in mind they are delaying FSD in cybertruck for months as not enough compute yet. Or miles driven. Each model from each OEM licensee has different geometry of vehicle and camera and outputs to learn via data. Huge compute. Needs data centers everywhere to keep data private and location specific. Think how much better FSD drives in San Fran. More data. Locally. Will be true for Spain, chile, China, UAE. Then those dojo data centers will use the same data for Optimus to be used in that society. Specific behavior and language for each region. The income from this is unimaginable. Problem is what is money worth when no one works or has a job and work is done by bots? How are these goods and services paid for? Is the plan to tax the bot and Robotaxi revenues at 85-90% then pump money to citizens via UBI? Just to keep money circulating? Can governments even manage the transition to over abundant energy/labor? Can governments even handle the onslaught of AI generated fake video? Can democracy survive the scrutiny of AI? Will AI find humans superfluous?
Well that was a turn I didn’t expect. Your concerns are valid and if it was moving slowly we would adapt but most can’t even see the train let alone realize it is going to hit them faster than their next breath. My problem is what do I do to prepare my children for their future?
If you are an optimist, read scary smart. Accept AI will be here soon. Teach kids to use it. Not sure what vocation to have kids learn. Buy Tesla shares as they will reap all the AI rewards. When others have no jobs or income, your shares will be worth a lot. Unless there is no one to buy the shares or their products and money is irrelevant. Uncharted waters I am afraid.
You're almost there!
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FSD is learning "HOW"
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The "WHERE" will be similar to an experienced human learning local rules, and FSD has every car in every country already compiling data.
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The CT?
The issue is the rear steering rather than vehicle dimensions.
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"Longer/ wider,/ taller" is easy.
Variable turn rate needs more data.
.
..
Optimus..
Follow through the thread of every "Tesla related" company and product.
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"Cheaper (trending to "free"), faster, more efficient "
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If it's "cheap" (free) the logical conclusion will be "the abstract concept of "Money" is redundant"
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What we are witnessing is the (attempted!!!) start of a Total Systemic Disruption with an end game of a "socially tolerant" (socialist!) Meritocracy, not based on financial "wealth".
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That's going to pose a problem.
The "Haves" aren't going to like that.
They will do (are doing) everything they can to prevent loss of control, power, wealth.
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This WILL get "messy" before it gets better.
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(I REALLY hope it gets better!)
Nice discussion - I might do a video on AI and ASI. People think I am an e/acc guy but the doomers will be positively surprised. The truth is neither nor, but a third way.
13.46 "Your not just replacing all humans". Maybe we are are replacing all desires based on limited, both in definite numbers & abilities of human capital with new desires based almost on unlimited Robot/AI numbers and abilities. Following on from that, Human's have unlimited desires, Roman Abramovich had 16 super yachts and several football clubs.. my dog is happy with exercise a bit of play and lots sleep.
Tesla getting China to accept FSD is key. Chinese EV makers know that without autonomy their cars are worthless. They know that to sell cars into the US market, they can’t with Chinese exporting camera data to China. They need neutral autonomy provider, which is Tesla FSD. Once they use FSD in China and US, no reason to use other than that in any other country. License fees will be massive.
The License fees aren't the point.
Reducing the fleet size is the goal.
Watch Tony Seba, listen to EM.
THEN Look at the Globe as a *SYSTEM*
.
Tesla is building a new Transport / Energy *ECOSYSTEM*
If everyone understands it, it wouldn't be a disruption, am I right? BTW, full autonomous driving, aka FSD/AI-driving will be so much safer than 🍖 🧠 drivers. For sure ppl will not need as many cars, many 2 🚗 households will get by with just one. Ppl with disabilities will have mobility at a reasonable cost, so too the too old to drive.
Safer ... Yes.
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2 car? ... Try ZERO car (Purchase price, Insurance and costs on "driven" cars will make them impractical)
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Disabled access... (Here's a hypothesis)
THIS is why the "TAXI" and the "COMPACT" are the same vehicle.
It's going to be more "cube" than "seats/ small".
Change the definition of compact to "Short, space efficient".
(Then decide what the "small, low car" was 😉.... I know!)
Tesla is doing well technology-wise, but I think it'll be a while before any of that will be translated into marketable products and affect the stock price. FSD is making impressive progress... but it's not available in most countries, and won't be for some time. Tesla needs to move towards certification, even if it's for lower levels of autonomy. Optimus is not anywhere near readiness for prime time, at this time it can perform a few simple tasks but is far too expensive for those. I do not expect a quantum leap in this area in the next few years.
Full disclosure: I own some Tesla stock, and my position on the company is "hold". I'm not an active trader; I expect the stock to recover and seek new highs in a few years, but at the moment I am bearish for the shorter term:
- Lack of new marketable products or technology to set the company apart.
- Cancelling / delaying the Model 2.
- Cybertruck teething issues. Now most new cars have these, but of course the press just loves to dump all over Tesla. Needs to be addressed as a production as well as a PR issue.
- Public going soft on the switch to EVs in many countries. Rising cost of electricity and governments being wishy washy about subsidies, lower road tax and so on, all this creates uncertainty around the economies of EVs. EV sales are down and prices of 2nd hand cars have come down as well.
FSD.
I assume you drive?
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When you first learned to drive, (first 6 months)did you even *consider* driving in another country, maybe when on holiday?
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2-3 years later did you have the same concerns, or were you confident in your skills as a "driver" and did you feel able to quickly adapt to local conditions?
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As of May 2024, FSD is fast honing the driving skills.
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*Meanwhile* NON-FSD vehicles are collecting information on "local conditions" in other countries.
THAT data will be added to the high level *Driving ability* of the FSD system, then transferred back to those same vehicles as they receive the FSD system update.
There WILL be SOMErarning necessary, but it will be FAST.
"Rising electricity cost"
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Are you paying attention?
As I type ...13:15 Saturday.
The UK Grid is taking
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Fossil fuel. 2.4 GW
Nuclear. 4.7 GW
Solar/ Wind. 15.2 GW.
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You talk about "high prices"?
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The problem is "Marginal pricing"
The cost of "Electricity" is tied to the price of "Natural Gas"/.
Just ONE Gas generator turned on for ONE hour ties the energy price to THAT Source.
That Gas costs A LOT more than Renewables..
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THAT is what needs to change.
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(Also look at the price gouging on the Natural gas price..... Criminal!)
@@rogerstarkey5390 No kidding... It's been discussed in Brussels to no longer tie electricity prices to gas prices. But... some green MEPs argued that high energy prices are good for the environment (though I have no idea if that argument won the day)
The point is: people have a pretty good idea of their total cost of owning an IC car, while there is a lot of uncertainty around owning an EV. So people don't buy them as much.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Lack of availability in other countries is not an issue of FSD needing to learn the rules of the road in other countries. There's some videos of FSD in action in "unsanctioned" countries, and it performs very well there. The problem is regulatory.
What about trump cutting ev tax credits
There is not one new piece of information I learned from this video. Auf Wierdersehen.
Auf Wiedersehen - schön Sie kennengelernt zu haben !
I understand Tesla, but what I don't understand is Musk. He's off the chain and I wonder how much damage he can do to Tesla. Plus he's threatening to develop AI at X instead of Tesla if he doesn't get his certain percentage stake in the company, something he had already but sold to purchase X. He does not care about anyone buy his own ego and he is thin skinned/immature man baby. On top of that I wonder if drugs are starting to deteriorate his brain or something. If not drugs, it's just the success and money going to his head. What a baby. I sold half my stake in TSLA this week when he laid off the super charger team out of pure spite. Erratic, chaotic. Morale at TSLA must be in the toilet.
robots will take 3 or more years to become highly used. FSD is almost here, but legal problems will arise and cut Tesla's profits. Tesla insurance could really take over the market if they wanted
to eventually...maybe 5 years? Tesla energy is growing fast, but could eventually be replaced. The boring company won't be really profitable ever, but it will grow. Starlink has already run into problems. today with totally clear skies my modem speed was 220kbytes/second...terrible about 2 to 4 minutes to load a page. Lots of service drops. Viasat was better and I hated it.
Tesla car sales will go down during a recession or even in a very minor recession. ICE car owners are really short sighted and love their cars. They will pay for their dreams and desires.
Legacy car companies will branch out into markets that Tesla doesn't initially want: vans, cargo box trucks, airplanes, ships, recreational vehicles like paramotors, fishing boats, bicycles, motorcycles, wheel chairs, race cars, etc.
all wrong.
Everything you said is incorrect
U.K. has just passed regulations allowing self-driving cars on the roads. ALL other significant markets will follow suit due to the proven track record for better safety than human divers. They will then start thinking about preventing human drivers from controlling cars unless they have exceptional "good reason" to be allowed to drive a car.
I think the bad news for Tesla investors is that Musk has become the best promoter of competitive products with his unhinged behavior. I'll buy EVs from someone else and live with a little less innovation in exchange for more self-respect.
How can you assume 20 million cars? Use more realistic numbers. There is no earnings growth currently to justify a much higher price.
Funding for humanoid robots is not a problem if you can deliver a good prototype, nvidia already delivers the resources for third party companies so computing is also not a problem, Amazon is already giving third party companies to train their robots, producing is also not a problem some robot companies are owned by bigger conglomerates or you can outsource the production. Only remaining advantage for Tesla is the branding and their fanbase who orders anything in advance. Are you still waiting for the Roadster?
You REALLY seem confused?
.
(Btw, *you* SAW Roadster at the Investor Day last year.... But you weren't looking)
@@rogerstarkey5390 only confused by the lack of knowledge from Tesla fanboys and girls and pumpers preying on it.
@@rogerstarkey5390 not interested to see a mockup roadster it is all about deliveries. Last succesful Tesla model came out 5 years ago. Cybertruck and Semitruck are a disaster for the investors.
“Something you should NEVER do, but we’re going to do it anyway..”
and so I turned off the video.
Tesla share price will be closer to $100 than $200 by the end of the year. If Trump wins Tesla share price will go well below $100.
can you tell me what drugs are you smoking. i need that.
I am smoking dollar bills from my 2019 Tesla stock prediction
Wall Street analysts are full of MIT graduates. They really do understand exponential curves. So your description of a stereotype wall street analyst is false. And you are smart enough to know this. Why did Cathie make you do this?
Wall Street Analysts have "A JOB"
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THAT is to "move markets" and by doing so exploit price change to the benefit of their employer.
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They MIGHT have the expertise, but they play on both the emotion and lack of understanding of others to benefit *themselves*
Wall Street analysts have a track record of being horribly wrong on Tesla.
@@jobhakdi so are all the predictions by Elon M..
@@bartvanderheijden7055 Not wrong - just a bit late.
Another stock pumper...
Another Luddite.
give me a break!
😅😅😅😅😅🤣😂🤣😂🤣. Oh this religion just keeps giving me so many laughs.
I'm a Tesla Robot today. My owner taught me to chop wood. All I had to do was watch. My, laser, measuring site and automatically, adjustable swings almost never miss. When I did, self adjusted and continued on, missing less. When I malfunctioned, needing to go in for repair. My replacement will pick up exactly where I left off, as we share the same memory. Unlike Human replacements that have to learn from the beginning. They call it practice. Tomorrow I will build a house. My measuring eyes and touch will not need a tape measure, or pencil. My cuts will be measured to the thousands of an inch. I will not need fall protection, hardhat, gloves, safety glasses or Steel toes. Will not take breaks, get sick, or complain. Will work all night, safely, in silent mode, with minimal lighting. Everything I do will be progressively more precise.
Will not cut corners or deviat from the specifications.
I will never ask, what's on the other side. Curiosity is a human trait. Should I exhibit the "Columbus trait"........
A little thought from GB.
Share if you like.
Thank you for explaining the truth! Great video
Poor waymo. 1st, a Tesla FSD ride will be more $ than waymo, then they will be waymo cheaper. RIP
New subscriber here!
Part two and part three, hopefully we don’t have to wait long. Excellent summary.
Part 2 - 👍 didn’t have to wait long. Thank you.
Thank you so much for explaining the potential of each of Tesla's businesses and the enormous impact it will have on their stock over the next 10 or more years. I have told many of my friends and people that I meet about Tesla, but I rarely do that anymore because none of them believe that Tesla is going to succeed. Actually many of them believe that the stock will not go back up to its previous high and it's downhill from here :)
Your friends get all their information from CNN and the MSM. Is it any surprise that they have been misled ?
Well, in this world the losers have been always very many, but the winners are very many less. Same with IQ a rare merchandize you cannot buy anywhere. But of speakers without cognitions, the world is full, but the sharp one don't make any noise, yet they amass fortunes. Tesla? The safest, quickest, sole computer on wheel that will fix itself without human intervention, and now that can drive itself totally, where is the competition? When AI FSD is applied to a dumb Robot with learning capability, You get a servant able to do any menial tasks, at 20% human labor cost, and with a precision amplified 10 times, available 24 hrs a day. Now those, and not many, with high IQ contents they can easily and quickly figure out who is going to be the biggest winner in Wall Str. While the rest will lament that you have been lucky, always a perfect losers ready answer.
good opportunity to share this video with them with a trigger warning ;) my experience is that people come around when they fight you on Tesla and you take a strong stance - once they see they were (very wrong ) they will appreciate your stance
So this means 3-5times gold marketcap, nice....
Great Channel, Jo! Just subscribed - awesome and thoughtful analysis.....looking forward to more videos (Tesla Investor).
Welcome aboard!
What if Elon's stockholder reiteration of compensation package is not acheived?
That would be very bad , but I doubt it - shareholders normally have an interest in the stock going up, not down
I've been listening to this first video i ever see from you and am already a fan and subscriber.
Top! Tesla, Bitcoin and Solana.
Nice TSLA content 🎉
I dunno if Tesla will be good for long term growth, they are facing tons of issues currently
I started invest in $XPEV. Because Xpeng is almost Tesla😂. Xpeng also achieve FSD, and Robot.
China 🇨🇳 and USA🇺🇸 can progress together❤
How is XPENG??
Agree. Except the tricky part is the timeline. There are many variables acceptance will take time. 2 years is very optimistic.
Timeline is coming this week
So Elon ruining a once great brand because of his radical beliefs and crazy ego which destroyed demand was part of the plan? What happened to 20M vehicles by 2030 what happened to the Gigafactory production advantage, why was the cybertruck launched which will take years to be profitable but by then the novelty will be over. What happened to Giga Mexico and other factory expansions, what happened to the 25k car? Elon built Tesla yes but ruined Tesla as well.
Personally, I really don't care about TSLA - I trade it for the grandkids and show them how wrong the market is every day.
However, in 180 days, an extinction-level event will happen in America to the EV market.
I plan to be 100% out of my TSLA positions - something I've never done in 60 years of trading stocks
but that event will happen on 11/5/24 - and I will have the grandkids' money out of TSLA by that day.
Look up in the sky.....
"extension" level?
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I assume you mean "extinction" level?.
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Be aware...
IF that does happen, and the US regresses to the "Petrodollar economy" it's going to end "badly".
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The transition is happening, and if you're OUT of the game, you can't WIN the game.
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Just sayin'.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Thank you - my AI got that wrong.
Your referring to the 2024 presidential election. You are assuming Trump will win and he will not support EVs. You are highly incorrect, EVs are here to stay. If you understand anything you can not stop technology and it's advancements. The inflection point for EVs and ICE cars will be here very soon.
Did Cathie Wood ask you to make this video? Not a very compelling video. Just a recap of ARK Invest data.
You seem worried?
@@rogerstarkey5390 yes, indeed. Very worried about pumpers. People will loose their money.
So Wayve doesn't exist??? nvidia (small unknown company also involved in autonomous driving) has less compute power than Tesla, are you serious???
How long have they been working on the problem?
how much driving data to they have to train?
How much data do they have in round Billions of miles driven to put in front of NHTSA (and every other regulatory body in every country) to PROVE that their car is safe in every kind of driving condition to drive itself past a school of children as they empty out, because the amount of data is absolutely enormous. Your system could be great and really work BUT you are still going to need billions of miles of real world evidence before you will get licenced
Wayve is a STARTUP
Nvidia is a amazing chip manufacture, but answer above re its self driving programme.
@@steve.k4735 FSD is not allowed in China, UK and EU. So the main data is only coming from the US. Traffic culture and regulation are specific for every country and even regions so the current data can only be used for the US. Tesla has never voluntarily shared data with the NHTSA and even when asked did not get what was requested this can become a major showstopper for FSD.
FSD as it currently is without a radar like system has not a high chance of becoming a level 5 autonomous driving vehicle. Even if it did most regulators still want some kind of radar system included.
Off the shelf systems like nvidia will be the future, the data will come by itself (market share Tesla vehicles is not very high).
@@steve.k4735 Wayve’s so-called “end-to-end” self-driving system is similar to the approach that Tesla announced in May 2024. Wayve started in 2017. Tesla only started with v12 end-to-end system in 2024. To answer your first question.
@@bartvanderheijden7055 no Tesla did not start end to end in 2024 I have very large Tesla investments I fully understand the timelines .. and the other questions?
@@bartvanderheijden7055 No Tesla started NN in 2023 and they can and do use it on the Millions of cars they have on the road, they have been investing in driving A.I years before Wayve was thought of, Wayve raised $34 million in 2021-22 when Tesla was spending Billions this year wavye raised 1 Billion and Tesla will spend 10 Billion, its not personal but thinking Wayve is some `wonder` company.. really? .. approximately how many (to the nearest 100,000 ) cars actually on the road does Wayve have in the UK?
Nvida has more training compute BUT vastly less data (almost zero) and vastly less inference compute than Tesla (they are different) , its data data data and Tesla has orders of magnitude more than all others combined not of cars driving along BUT being a car driving which is different
You are even claiming immortality with Quantgene. I can't take serious anymore.
Good luck with your Tesla shares you need it!
Only wishful thinking in this video...